April 28, 2009
At the start of the 20th century, the United States was 40% illiterate and at best the world’s third most powerful nation, yet by the end of the century, it had emerged as the world’s dominant, unchallenged superpower.
The lesson? “Don’t extrapolate trends,” said George Friedman, “Be reasonable, but expect the impossible.” Friedman, CEO of the private intelligence and forecasting firm STRATFOR, who advises clients on the important trends in geopolitics and their impact on world economies. He spoke at the Altegris Strategic Investment Conference on April 4. Friedman’s most recent book, The Next 100 Years, is available from the link above.
The two world wars and the Great Depression are often considered the defining turning points of the last 100 years, but every century sees similar crises. Instead, three other developments transformed the global balance of power in the 20th century: the collapse of the expansive European empires that had dominated the 19th century globe, the explosion of the global population from under 2 billion to well over 6, and rapid technological developments—most notably in transportation and communications—that benefited some countries far more than others.
The story of the 21st century will be different, Friedman said. The “final emergence of the American Power” will be the significant event of the 21st century, he predicts, and population growth will slow and eventually stabilize by the end of the century as birth rates subside.Display article as PDF for printing.
Would you like to send this article to a friend?
Remember, if you have a question or comment, send it to .
