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Morningstar Ratings Fail over a Full Market Cycle
By Robert Huebscher
December 8, 2009

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Table 4 – Probabilities based on risk-adjusted return (Q3 2006 – Q3 2009)

 

 

Based on Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return

 

 

Average

% of Group Beaten by the Average Fund

Broad Asset Group

Funds Rated …

 Return

1 star

2 stars

3 stars

4 stars

5 stars

U.S. Equity

1 star

-14.28

 -

45.5%

45.0%

44.1%

42.0%

 

2 stars

-12.53

54.5%

 -

49.3%

48.2%

46.1%

 

3 stars

-12.50

55.0%

50.7%

 -

48.9%

46.7%

 

4 stars

-12.26

55.9%

51.8%

51.1%

 -

47.8%

 

5 stars

-11.71

58.0%

53.9%

53.3%

52.2%

 -

International Equity

1 star

-12.42

 -

52.3%

43.7%

42.1%

50.9%

 

2 stars

-12.50

47.7%

 -

42.4%

41.5%

47.9%

 

3 stars

-11.66

56.3%

57.6%

 -

48.8%

55.1%

 

4 stars

-11.49

57.9%

58.5%

51.2%

 -

56.6%

 

5 stars

-13.35

49.1%

52.1%

44.9%

43.4%

 -

Balanced

1 star

-1.22

 -

48.9%

46.0%

45.8%

51.5%

 

2 stars

-6.29

51.1%

 -

46.8%

46.6%

53.0%

 

3 stars

-6.03

54.0%

53.2%

 -

49.3%

55.5%

 

4 stars

-5.89

54.2%

53.4%

50.7%

 -

55.4%

 

5 stars

-6.07

48.5%

47.0%

44.5%

44.6%

 -

Taxable Bond

1 star

0.07

 -

46.3%

40.3%

40.7%

38.5%

 

2 stars

0.17

53.7%

 -

43.7%

43.5%

40.9%

 

3 stars

0.32

59.7%

56.3%

 -

49.4%

46.0%

 

4 stars

0.40

59.3%

56.5%

50.6%

 -

46.7%

 

5 stars

0.37

61.5%

59.1%

54.0%

53.3%

 -

Muni Bond

1 star

-0.20

 -

53.4%

49.9%

44.5%

50.1%

 

2 stars

-0.29

46.6%

 -

47.2%

36.4%

50.8%

 

3 stars

-0.29

50.1%

52.8%

 -

40.0%

53.6%

 

4 stars

0.14

55.5%

63.6%

60.0%

 -

62.2%

 

5 stars

-2.07

49.9%

49.2%

46.4%

37.8%

 -

 

Table 5 – Probabilities based on raw return (2004-2006)

 

 

Based on Total Return

 

 

Average

% of Group Beaten by the Average Fund

Broad Asset Group

Funds Rated …

 Return

1 star

2 stars

3 stars

4 stars

5 stars

U.S. Equity

1 star

9.81

-

46.31

44.84

41.23

37.30

 

2 stars

10.51

53.62

-

48.22

44.17

39.47

 

3 stars

10.73

55.10

51.71

-

45.75

40.90

 

4 stars

11.39

58.71

55.76

54.18

-

45.29

 

5 stars

11.88

62.64

60.47

59.03

54.64

-

International Equity

1 star

19.31

-

47.34

46.50

43.08

44.23

 

2 stars

19.73

52.61

-

49.26

45.74

47.63

 

3 stars

19.93

53.44

50.67

-

46.27

48.08

 

4 stars

20.93

56.87

54.20

53.67

-

52.28

 

5 stars

20.19

55.68

52.33

51.86

47.66

-

Balanced

1 star

6.76

-

47.04

38.95

30.87

22.81

 

2 stars

7.12

52.80

-

40.56

29.91

24.31

 

3 stars

7.74

60.90

59.29

-

41.03

31.49

 

4 stars

8.26

69.05

69.92

58.78

-

36.69

 

5 stars

9.35

77.08

75.59

68.36

63.17

-

Taxable Bond

1 star

3.36

-

48.32

36.85

29.45

22.76

 

2 stars

3.30

51.49

-

36.62

28.17

20.37

 

3 stars

4.12

62.99

63.15

-

40.55

31.47

 

4 stars

4.58

70.42

71.67

59.25

-

40.37

 

5 stars

5.33

77.09

79.51

68.38

59.43

-

Muni Bond

1 star

2.64

-

35.22

23.86

19.25

11.67

 

2 stars

3.17

64.49

-

36.79

31.08

19.72

 

3 stars

3.65

75.92

62.95

-

43.42

31.24

 

4 stars

3.88

80.57

68.69

56.29

-

38.56

 

5 stars

4.37

88.20

80.11

68.47

61.15

-

 

Table 6 – Probabilities based on risk-adjusted return (2004-2006)

 

 

Based on Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return

 

 

Average

% of Group Beaten by the Average Fund

Broad Asset Group

Funds Rated …

 Return

1 star

2 stars

3 stars

4 stars

5 stars

U.S. Equity

1 star

4.26

-

45.08

42.93

39.27

34.81

 

2 stars

5.59

54.86

-

47.49

43.40

38.18

 

3 stars

5.92

57.02

52.44

-

45.69

40.20

 

4 stars

6.63

60.67

56.53

54.24

-

44.72

 

5 stars

7.22

65.13

61.74

59.73

55.21

-

International Equity

1 star

13.51

-

47.56

46.72

42.24

42.72

 

2 stars

13.86

52.35

-

49.03

44.37

45.58

 

3 stars

14.22

53.19

50.91

-

45.13

45.74

 

4 stars

15.29

57.71

55.56

54.82

-

51.81

 

5 stars

14.69

57.22

54.38

54.19

48.12

-

Balanced

1 star

3.12

-

47.14

38.31

30.80

22.90

 

2 stars

3.47

52.74

-

39.71

29.78

23.98

 

3 stars

4.08

61.51

60.10

-

41.60

31.52

 

4 stars

4.55

69.05

70.06

58.24

-

36.30

 

5 stars

5.57

77.10

75.94

68.38

63.59

-

Taxable Bond

1 star

-0.01

-

48.17

36.51

29.25

23.07

 

2 stars

-0.06

51.57

-

36.51

28.12

20.83

 

3 stars

0.72

63.28

63.24

-

40.53

32.01

 

4 stars

1.15

70.60

71.69

59.25

-

40.99

 

5 stars

1.84

76.83

79.04

67.80

58.81

-

Muni Bond

1 star

-0.68

-

35.19

23.68

19.06

11.70

 

2 stars

-0.17

64.54

-

36.67

30.87

19.83

 

3 stars

0.29

76.10

63.05

-

43.27

31.62

 

4 stars

0.51

80.75

68.88

56.42

-

39.16

 

5 stars

0.97

88.18

79.97

68.06

60.55

-

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