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Whenever I write or speak in front of a group of people and feel the need to apologize for my message, I am usually right. This usually happens for two reasons.

First, I am likely saying what people don't want to hear; and second, because the message goes contrary to common opinion. So I am probably right about what I am about to say, as I am getting this tingly "don't shoot the messenger, please" feeling while I am typing this: The global slowdown (and the key word here is “global') is just starting and will last longer than most expect.

Until just a few months ago, the slowdown was taking place in the developed world: the U.S. and Europe. The developing world (China, India, Russia and Latin America) appeared to be marching to a different economic drummer. Those countries appeared be insulated from their biggest customers' economic problems in the developed world. Suddenly in September, developing economies were not tone deaf anymore and started to march to the beat of the developed world's drum and their economies joined up with the rest of the developed world and embarked on the decline.

Developing economies had an incredible decade of growth, but this growth is behind them, not in front of them, at least for awhile. An unstoppable growth train, mighty China, is derailing. The Chinese purchasing managers' index fell from 47.7 points to 45.2 points in October, the steepest monthly fall and the lowest point since the index was started in 2004. Meanwhile, a government-backed survey of manufacturers dropped 6.6 points to 44.6 in October, also a record fall.

How much trust would I put in these numbers? Not very much as they are reported by a communist government, in a country where the expression "don't shoot the messenger" has a different and more literal meaning. Anecdotal evidence from Chinese companies or companies doing business in China bears a lot more weight than government statistics that will likely lag reality by months (if not longer).

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