Most Recent Articles
Gundlach: Don't Fear Fed Tightening by Robert Huebscher
Throughout the post-crisis period, collective wisdom among market forecasters has held that interest rates would rise. But low rates have persisted, proving those prognosticators "dead wrong," in Jeffrey Gundlach's words. Gundlach, correctly contrarian in his interest-rate predictions, now believes the Fed will raise rates in 2015 but investors should not fear Fed tightening.
Most Recent Commentaries
Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
I recently revisited the economic projections we made last January, as part of my performance appraisal. I dread the experience, as it tends to highlight my frailty as a forecaster. This year wasn’t too bad, though. Allowing for the polar vortex, we got U.S. growth just about right. We had been skeptical about Europe, and thought that China would moderate. Our call on how the Federal Reserve would progress was spot on. However, a number of things that transpired during 2014 caught us quite by surprise. Here is our roster of the most unexpected events and trends of the year.
5 Things To Ponder: Variegated Contemplations by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
Yes, it is that magical week leading up to Christmas and the subsequent low volume push into the new year. For individuals, it is "magic time" as hopes are high that "Santa Claus" will come to WallStreet.
Will Shoppers Bring Holiday Cheer for Markets? by Burt White of LPL Financial
We expect holiday shoppers, bolstered by lower energy prices, to help support potential stock market gains. Although the severity of the oil price decline has been unsettling, we view the decline as positive for U.S. consumers overall. Retail stocks should deliver some cheer for markets this holiday season, but don’t stuff those stockings with too much of them.
Will 2015 Remain a Central Banker’s World? by Andrew Pease of Russell Investments
Central bankers have dominated the outlook for global markets for the past five years. They’ve lowered interest rates to zero and implemented unorthodox policies like quantitative easing and forward guidance.
Valuation estimate of SP500 2015 returns : 2,246 target by Dwaine Van Vuuren of RecessionALERT.com
The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization, Gross Domestic Product, non-financial corporate equities and liabilities, non-financial corporate business net-worth and percentage of investors’ allocation to stocks versus cash and bonds to determine 10, 5, 3, 2 and 1 year forecasts for the SP-500 Total Return Index (dividends re-invested).
Outlook for the Global Credit Markets in 2015 by Mark Kiesel of PIMCO
The combination of fundamentals, technicals, valuations and global central bank policies drives our overall constructive outlook for global credit in 2015. Economic growth dynamics, including an improving outlook in the U.S., along with likely changes in global central bank policies, continued energy price volatility and the potential for more shareholder-friendly actions by companies inform our credit views and strategies.
Testing the Limits of Monetary Policy Without Fiscal Union by Andrew Balls, Andrew Bosomworth, Lorenzo Pagani of PIMCO
Over the next 12 months, we expect eurozone growth to accelerate from the current annualised run rate of 0.5% to a still-very-weak pace of approximately 1%, while the ultra-low inflation tells us there is a demand problem. With the ECB set to expand its balance sheet over the cyclical horizon, the biggest risk to growth is if the ECB buys large quantities of government bonds but the governments do nothing. We expect to remain overweight European peripherals and overweight European corporate credit, with the focus on financials.
The Promise of Smart Beta by Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates
Forty years ago, Jack Bogle helped revolutionize our industry for the benefit of the investor. Today there is opportunity for a second revolution—promising to bring the same low costs and high transparency to additional equity factors. Can smart beta break free from the conventional objectives of asset gathering and obfuscation, and deliver on that promise? Jason Hsu provides his commitment and reasserts that of Research Affiliates to deliver on the promise of smart beta.
How Much Risk Should Clients Take? by Joe Tomlinson
Determining the degree of risk that is appropriate and tolerable in clients' financial plans is central to an advisor's role. I will show how advisors should deconstruct risk into six components and then integrate them using a framework to provide the best recommendations for clients.
Financial Planning for an Uncertain Energy Future by Richard E. Vodra
Advisors hearing optimistic forecasts of plentiful new supplies of oil that may last for decades may be encouraged to make aggressive projections for their clients. It is critical to understand the role oil plays in the economy and the factors that will affect future supplies. Advisors should "drill down" beneath the slogans to see both risks and opportunities upon which to base their recommendations.
Turning Resolutions into Reality by Dan Richards
I will outline the research on the tactics that go into creating the new habits that will turn your personal and business New Year's resolutions into reality.
Why I'm Concerned about Stock Market Valuation Levels by Ron A. Rhoades, J.D., CFP®
Looking at a range of valuation metrics, long-term investors have good reason to worry about the U.S. equity market. They can take comfort, however, in the fact that certain asset sub-classes are less overvalued that others.
Increase the Emotional Connection with Your Prospects by Daniel Solin
To convert prospects into clients, you need to make an emotional connection. Lecturing, educating, presenting data or otherwise demonstrating your superior expertise in financial planning and investments will not achieve that goal.
Career Center by Various
Find career opportunities for firms that seek to add financial advisors and planners to their staff. Read more to find out how to post opportunities at your firm.
The Top Priority for Growth in 2015 by Beverly Flaxington
What is the number one most important area to focus on for growth in 2015?