Most Recent Articles

Jeremy Siegel, Rob Arnott and Other Experts Forecast Equity Returns by Laurence B. Siegel

A forecast of the equity risk premium (ERP) tells you how much to save, how to allocate assets between equities and fixed income, and how much you can consume. Given its great importance, the CFA Institute recently convened a group of top-level academics and practitioners to forecast future ERPs - and to reflect on similar predictions they had made a decade ago.

Most Recent Commentaries

A Spark That Lit the Economy by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Fridays employment data was the latest of a series of data showing marked improvement in the U.S. economy. ISI counted 18 straight weeks of stronger U.S. data including better vehicle sales, same store sales, homebuilding and manufacturing. Also, U.S. money supply is growing at a robust 10 percent year-over-year, greasing the wheels for Americas economic engine, which showed 3.7 percent growth in nominal GDP in the fourth quarter.

What the Bond Market Knows That You Dont by Matt Tucker of iShares Blog

On the back of improving US economic data, equities have rallied off of autumn lows, and yet US Treasury yields have continued to surf bottom with the 10-year note trading below 2% for the first time on record. Why havent interest rates recovered in support of improving data? Do US Treasury investors know something that equity investors dont? The answer may lie across the pond in Europe. The European crisis intensified significantly in the fall, causing equity markets (and most risky assets for that matter) to sell off and US Treasury rates to fall, despite the August downgrade.

Notes from the CES: As Old Tech Tries to Stay Relevant, Investors Need to Be Careful by Terrence L. Ing of PIMCO

Revenue growth rates at many large investment grade technology companies have declined in recent years while debt issuance has risen, in part because of nearly full market penetration in certain high-tech products but also due to less innovation. PIMCO is very selective in the investment grade tech sector, favoring companies with strong and growing patent portfolios in areas of secular growth, strong free cash flow generation and low leverage.

Order and Progress on the Rise in Brazil by Mark Mobius of U.S. Global Investors

My worldwide pursuit of good investing bargains takes me to some magnificent countries. In my view, Brazil is certainly among the most beautiful and economically vibrant in the western hemisphere. Its Portuguese-speaking multiracial population of almost 200 million1 represents a growing and upwardly mobile consumer market. Brazil is the fifth most populated country in the world and is chock-full of natural resources and rich farmland. Appropriately, the countrys name comes from the wood that grows along the coast, which was greatly valued by the European textile industry.

A Tribute to Dr. Irwin Jacobs and Qualcomm by Kendall J. Anderson of Anderson Griggs

Any business cannot survive without more cash coming into the business than is being spent. For many new companies, especially technology companies, when the cash ran out they would just close the doors. Not for Dr. Jacobs and his fellow owners. When the cash ran out, they chose a different route to stay afloat, one that was contrary to accepted business practices and possibly the most important contribution any company has made in the development of the wireless industry. Their solution was to license all of their patents as a portfolio in return for a royalty payment.

If Current Bank Credit Trends Continue, Bet Against the Feds Interest Rate Forecast by Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust

A majority of FOMC members expect that the interest rate on federal funds, an interest rate controlled by the Fed, will not be increasing until late in 2014. If the current trend in the behavior of bank credit continues in 2012 and into 2013, I believe that the FOMC will be lifting its federal funds rate target early in the second half of 2013. Again, if the current growth trend in bank credit continues, a failure on the part of the FOMC to raise its federal funds rate target and shrink its balance sheet will sow the seeds of a rate of consumer inflation above the FOMCs 2% annualized target.

Where to Find Value in Emerging Asia by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Im updating my views on some of the emerging market countries in Asia. While Im upgrading Chinese equities from neutral to overweight, Im downgrading South Korean and Indian stocks from neutral to underweight. Starting with China and South Korea the two countries are both highly exposed to global growth, but China currently appears to be the better positioned and is likely to hold up much better. To be sure, South Korean equities are also cheap compared to other emerging markets. Im downgrading India in response to the countrys recent surge in valuations and persistently high inflation.

Global Overview: January 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

Concerns over a significant global downturn have faded further as economic data trends from the last days of 2011 and the early days of the current year remain healthy. Global manufacturing activity expanded again in January, helped by output growth in the U.S., China, Japan, India, and Australia. Manufacturing output also improved in the Euro-zone, helped by continued gains in Germany. U.S. labor market conditions advanced again in January, raising hopes for increased consumer demand that will also help export growth in other economies such as China.

An Innovative Solution to Retirement Income by Joe Tomlinson

Generating lifetime income is the ultimate goal of retirement planning. Why is it, then, that two of the most compelling mechanisms for doing just that are shunned by the investing public, despite overwhelming support from experts? I'm talking about immediate annuities and delayed claiming of Social Security, both of which are remarkably effective at securing retirement needs.

What Advisors Can Learn from Eli Manning: How to Conquer the Real Threat to Your Success by Jack Singer, Ph.D.

I don't know Eli Manning personally. But I know a thing or two about what it takes to become a champion, as he did by winning the Super Bowl on Sunday night.

A Conversation that Tripled Referrals by Dan Richards

Last fall, a veteran advisor contacted his retired clients with the suggestion that they meet to discuss one simple goal - to lay out detailed monthly cash flow forecasts matching funds coming in with cash going out. Not only did this exercise benefit those clients, he was able to leverage his efforts to triple his referrals.

Neel Kashkari on PIMCO's Equity Strategy by John Heins

Bond titan PIMCO has been methodically building its equity-investing expertise. Here the architect of that effort, Neel Kashkari, and his first major hires describe their strategy and how they're uncovering value in today's market.

Letters to the Editor by Various

Readers respond to past articles, including Robert Huebscher's article, The Misreading of Reinhart and Rogoff, our interview with Lacy Hunt, and Wade Pfau's article, Safe Withdrawal Rates: A Do-It-Yourself Approach.

Lacy Hunt on the Roadblock to Recovery by Robert Huebscher

'The fundamental key to prosperity is not governmental financial transactions, or even private sector financial transactions,' according to Lacy Hunt, the widely respected economist at Hoisington Investment Management, with whom we spoke last week. 'The key to prosperity is the hard work and creativity of our individuals in businesses.'

Bob Doll Believes the Recent Equities Rally Could Continue by BlackRock

Conditions have improved compared to last quarter, with the US economy showing signs of acceleration and European policymakers moving further along the path of progress. With the bearish tone receding, investors should consider moving into "risk" assets and out of "safe" assets, especially on pullbacks.