Note from dshort: On this day after the elections in France and Greece, Euro Zone indexes have rallied. In contrast the Nikkei 225 opened the week with a whopping 2.78% decline. I've updated the charts below in response to a reader's request.

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Here is a look at the Nikkei 225 which gives an overview of the cyclical rallies and their duration during Japan's secular bear market, now in its 222nd year.

 

 

The table below documents the advances and declines and the elapsed time for the major cycles in the Nikkei.

 

 

Japan's Q4 Real GDP -0.7%

The latest Real GDP from Japan is through Q4, which came in at a -0.7% compounded annual rate of change, a sharp decline from the 7.1% Q3 GDP rebound following the devastating March 2011 earthquake, which sharply reduced private consumption and especially exports.

 

 

Here is a revealing snapshot of real GDP showing the percent off the most recent peak across time. The underlying calculation is to show peaks at 100% on the left axis. The callout shows the percent off as of the most recent GDP release.

I'll update this last chart when Japan's Q1 GDP is released later this month.

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Note: The "recessions" highlighted in the third chart above are based on the OECD Composite Leading Indicators Reference Turning Points and Component Series. I use the peak-to-trough version of data (peak month begins the gray, trough month is excluded), which is conveniently available in the FRED repository. As we can readily see, the OECD concept of turning points is much broader than the method used by the NBER to define recessions in the US.