How Long to the Next Recession? iM's Weekly Update

June 12, 2014

by Anton Vrba and Georg Vrba

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

The BCI at 173.2 is up from last week’s 172.6. The BCIg, the smoothed annualized growth of BCI, at 17.5 is also up from last week's 16.8. This week’s BCI does not indicate a possible recession in the near future.

Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.

Click for a larger image

The off-peak indicator BCIp is at 100, and at this level the BCIw graphic with the tracks to recession is not applicable.

The BCI, BCIp and BCIw are described in article 1, article 2 and article 3 respectively. Historic values of BCI, BCIg and BCIp can be downloaded from the author's website.

Apart from the weekly Business Cycle Index, updates of a number of weekly and monthly financial macro models are also available on the website.

Anton Vrba and Georg Vrba

Anton Vrba is an electrical engineer. He pursued a career in R&D, manufacturing and construction project management. He developed the iMarketSignals' proprietary Business Cycle Index (BCI) and the authors' website. His other interests are mathematics and physics. He is a lateral thinker and has many ideas that challenge the established and accepted explanations.

Georg Vrba is a professional engineer who has been a consulting engineer for many years. In his opinion, mathematical models provide better guidance to market direction than financial "experts." He has developed financial models for the stock market, the bond market, yield curve, gold, silver and recession prediction, all published in Advisor Perspectives. The models are updated weekly at

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