Dow 30: Six DOWN, Twenty-Four to Go!

January 29th, 2014

by Steven Bauer

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

My 50+ Year Logo is: "Investing Wisely."

Believe it or not, this is one of my very best ways to Identify – Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points for the General Market Indices. You will find by reading my articles that I have even better ones but this "simple guy" tells the story both more simple and I believe better than the others. It is basic mathematics with no gimmicks or formulas to learn to interrupt in order follow with precision. It is a matter of having the patience and discipline to monitor these BIG (Blue) GUNs, and as they endlessly Cycle from Bullish to Bearish and back again to Bullish ad-nauseas over time. I simple keep the Dow 30 - Industrials "Count" in perspective and believe me profit from the ever-changing cycles.

Just for the record, it will only take a few more Companies to turn Bearish, certainly not anywhere near the remaining twenty-four.

Going Back Just A Bit for Reference

Right now, the 'Down Count' is at Six too still too small to change my Opinion from Bullish to Bearish for the Dow or the General Market. Last month in my posting the 'Down Count' was at Five Forecasting as I do on a continuous basis -- six months ago the 'Down Count' was at One. I Forecasting suggest that in perhaps a few months from now, there will be a high enough 'Down Counts' to have turned the Dow 30 Industrials / General Market – Bearish. I'll keep you posted.

You must also understand that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a (weighted) average. For example: The numeric influence of Visa is ten times that of Verizon. I believe I have the credentials to more than suggest that -- this is Manipulation Beyond ANY Acceptable Level!

Within any group of securities, including all the securities on the planet, my work / analytics focuses on the Favorable and the Un-Favorable. There are always a 'group' of Favorable , the Un-Favorable and the "Also-Rans" on my management lists. The latter are of no interest to me until they rotate-completely Into or Out of "Favor." (Please read the notes in the table below).

Note: Please understand that there are almost ALWAYS lower risk Companies with a much Higher Probability of Profit than any of these Dow 30 Component Companies -- The Trick is to Know Which Ones!

My Methodology of "Investing Wisely" is unique, and it is clearly turning Bearish even with the Dow 30 Industrial Index - turning in repeated new highs. Will there be yet another? Likely Not!

The below Table is designed as a teaching tool but is both current and very accurate. I hope you will want to study it very carefully.

You will note the title has notable meaning and comes from Kenny Rodgers' song The Gambler (click to listen).

You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,

Know when to walk away and know when to run.


The General U.S. Stock Market - Forecasted

This week (so far) the General Market is down and the year to date is definitely un-impressive. That's Ok if you are looking for a Bearish Inflection Point – and I am. It only means that I / YOU must remain patient and wait for my composite technical indicators to do their thing. My fundamental and economic indicators have been in place for months. Technically, I am very prepared and confident with my pending Bearish Formal Recommendations to my Clients.

There will be a mini or bounce rally and how that plays out is what keeps me smiling with my work / analytics. After which I expect to see further confirmation of my Bearish Short-Term Forecast.

At this time, I am primarily holding Cash. Oh yes, I am holding those Companies and ETFs that remain 'Favorable' which can be seen in the above table and in my articles listed below. My overall research is focused on a Topping and very likely a new Bearish Inflection Point, or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish Cycle.

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Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,

Dr. Steve

Note : For a daily input and deeper view of my work / analytics you might want to click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles on my personal blog, which I update daily.

To Email Me with your questions or thoughts:

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