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In an email note today economist Steen Jakobsen notes the "S&P Dividend Yield is Below the 10-Yr Treasury Yield (1.93% vs. 2.19%)".
S&P Dividend Yield
Note : For real-time updates of the chart below, click here.
Steen asks " Why own stocks at lofty PE of 18 when you can get better yield and a free put option via fixed income'? "
Curve Watchers Anonymous notes this chart of US treasury yields.
US Treasury Yields Over Time
$TYX - 30 Year Rate
$TNX - 10 Year Rate
$FVX - 05 Year Rate
$IRX - 03 Month Rate
Five Curve Watchers Anonymous Comments
- The normalized S&P PE is an extremely lofty 24
- Forward estimates are ridiculously optimistic (they always are except at major bottoms)
- Earnings will revert to the mean
- The S&P Dividend Yield under 2% is not at all attractive
- Stock are certainly not cheap by any realistic measure
A Look at Select Miners
Looking for value? Then don't look where the herd is looking.
By the way, someone occasionally asks " who is curve watchers anonymous? " One person went so far as to do a search and wondered why the only references were to my blog. The reason is simple, I made up the name and have been using it for years.
I prefer GoldMoney to other precious metal holding companies but that is an admittedly biased opinion as I have a relationship with them. Anyone wanting additional information on GoldMoney : Please Email Mish.
Originally posted at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
© Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Investment Advisor Representative