Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
Covered employment is the set of working employees that have unemployment benefits.
Self-employed persons such as myself have to pay into state unemployment insurance programs but we are ineligible to receive benefits (we are not covered).
Similarly, people selling trinkets on Ebay as well as those involved in multi-level marketing schemes and calling it their only job are not covered either.
Covered employment was one of the topics that came up in my November 2 interview on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster.
In the interview I noted that covered employment has crashed and reader Tim Wallace frequently sends me charts to prove it. Here are the latest charts from Tim.
Uncovered Employment Since January 2009Shedlock-Wallace-Uncovered-Employment.png
I added data points to Tim's chart. Let's do the math.
According to the BLS, the economy added 4,951,000 since January 2009. In the same timeframe, uncovered employment rose by 6,573,468! The difference is 1,622,468.
133% of the jobs created since January 2009 are not covered. Employment rose by less than 5 million while uncovered employment rose by over 6.5 million.
BLS Employment History
Let's look at actual levels of employment (covered or not) since 1948. The chart compares October of 2012 with October in prior years, not seasonally adjusted.
Employment is on an upswing but it's all self-employed or other jobs not covered by unemployment insurance benefits.
The labor force itself is flat, but it should be growing.
All of these factors severely distort the reported unemployment rate.
As I have noted many times before, the falling unemployment rate is via several structural factors that actually show an underlying weak economy.
See the results of a Google search on disability fraud. The amazing drop in the participation rate is well beyond what demographics alone would suggest. For a discussion, please see About That "Expected" Drop In Participation Rate Also see Charting Errors in BLS Participation Rate Projections. Obamacare: Obama Slashes Four Hours Off Definition of "Full-Time" Employment
Realistically unemployment is much higher than stated.
Originally posted at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
© Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Investment Advisor Representative