Improving on Buy and Hold: A Sell Signal

March 18th, 2013

by Georg Vrba

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My model described in the article, Improving on Buy and Hold: Asset Allocation using Economic Indicators has produced a sell signal when it was updated on March 15, 2013.

The chart below shows the buy and sell signals obtained from the model for the time period 2009 to 2013.

This model has produced compound average annual growth rates (CAGR) as shown below:

For a complete up-to-date description of the model please visit the "Research" page at Below is a table of all the signals generated by the model. The signals in the yellow area of the table were generated from out-of-sample data.

Georg Vrba


Georg Vrba is a professional engineer who has been a consulting engineer for many years. In his opinion, mathematical models provide better guidance to market direction than financial "experts." He has developed financial models for the stock market, the bond market, yield curve, gold, silver and recessions all published in Advisor Perspectives. The models are updated weekly at

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