An Iranian-American used car dealer, Mexican drug cartel assassins, and a plan to blow up the Saudi ambassador in a Georgetown café?  Is this an assassination plot or a movie script? Or does it smell like a farce?  The fact is, history often turns on assassination attempts like the one revealed on Tuesday, October 11.  And this assassination plot, although foiled by American intelligence operatives, very well could have been a history altering event had it succeeded. 

Had the Iranians managed to set off a bomb in the Café Milano, we would now, most likely, be at war with Iran.  Why, you ask?  Because Washington does not have an understanding or the intelligence on Iran to determine whether this was a rogue plot or not.  The U.S. government, even this Administration, would have had no choice but to retaliate. The only question would be when, not if; and with what level and type of force?  Central Command already has an updated battle plan, which calls for massive bombardments of Iranian military and nuclear facilities. That action alone would be sufficient to unleash a counter attack on American forces and our national interests in the region and elsewhere around the globe.  There would also be a massive destabilization of the regimes in the region – beginning with Iraq, then Bahrain, followed by Kuwait.  Where the asymmetrical military engagements with the Quds Force and their surrogates would lead is speculative, but such engagements would not be favorable for the world economy or geopolitical stability.

Washington understands there’s an economic cost to a conflict with Iran - another war in the Gulf.  In one scenario, at the commencement of hostilities with Iran, there’d be an immediate spike in the price of oil and turbulence in the financial markets around the globe.  Where oil markets would end up is unpredictable, but the sober-minded put West Texas Intermediate above $150 and Brent ICE above $180, per barrel.  That is, before demand destruction across the global economy causes a sharp correction.  However, if cooler heads prevail, and the military engagements are more covert than overt, a dampening in oil prices could actually be evident over the next year as Iraqi oil comes back on line in a big way - 4 to 5 million barrels a day. Libya is also expected to start producing in the coming year.  In other words, Iran’s attempt to light up oil markets with this plot is a bit facile.

On Wednesday, the Obama Administration, through the offices of U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and United Nations Ambassador Susan Rice, has been in the news intimating there will be serious repercussions taken against Iran for the attempted assassination of the Saudi ambassador. American diplomats have been warning American citizens abroad that they could be subject to Iranian attacks. And people close to the Obama Administration tell me the President is looking for a justification to hit Iran, and use this opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.

My view?  We should take these ominous rumblings coming from our government seriously. And it’s not because Central Command is dusting off its plans to hit Iran.  But rather it is because in Attorney General Eric Holder’s news conference on Tuesday, he clearly held the government of Iran responsible for the attempted assassination.  Rather than leaving the door open to the possibility that rogue elements within the regime were responsible, he laid the blame at the highest level of Iran’s ruling class.  Holder’s rhetoric leaves the U.S. and its Western allies with little room to maneuver on a geopolitical chessboard.

This brings me back to the Quds Force. I tracked it for thirty years, both in the CIA and for the United Nations. It’s good, and I mean very good. It never misses, and it never leaves behind a fingerprint if it doesn’t want to. When the Quds Force blew up the Marine barracks in Beirut in October 1983 it put a blanket of explosives around the firing train so the bomber’s “signature” wouldn’t be found. This is what makes the plot against the Saudi Ambassador so perplexing. Did the Iranians want to get caught in this instance?

But more to the point, if there is a conflict with Iran, we can count on the Quds Force being engaged, and in a lot of places. It’s absolutely crucial to understand its reach and capabilities. When General Petraeus was commander in Iraq, he woke up one morning to receive a letter from the commander of the Quds Force informing Petraeus that Iraq “belongs” to the Quds Force, and the Americans need to keep that in mind.

But it’s not just Iraq. The Quds Force has clandestine cells all along the Arab side of the Gulf. And they’re backed up by Lebanon’s militant Shia group Hezbollah. The two of them can strike when and where they want. Moreover, the Arab Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, are extremely vulnerable to guerilla attacks. The UAE royal family still drives around in unarmored cars, with little or no physical protection. The Bahraini royal family would have been ousted by now if it weren’t protected by the Saudi National Guard.

What I’m trying to say here is that if a conflict with Iran were limited to a couple weeks of bombing and missile strikes, oil prices just might spike to unprecedented heights and then subside to near their current levels. But this scenario doesn’t take into account a sustained Iranian campaign in Iraq and the Gulf.  What would happen to the price of oil if the Quds Force assaulted our allies in the region?  There is no algorithm that could predict the outcome of that.

I personally think we’re going to get to the bottom of this story to find that Iran, in fact, was not behind this failed - or foiled - assassination plot.  But in American politics, truth doesn’t always drive the story, especially so in an election year.

More commentary and analysis to follow.

 

 

 

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