ProVise Management Group, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor

PROVISE BULLETS ©

(July 30, 2008)

• ProVise Management Group, LLC of Clearwater, FL was listed as the 76th largest wealth management firm in the country and largest on the West Coast of Florida by Financial Advisor Magazine in its 2008 Registered Investment Advisor rankings.  Total assets under management were $743 million as of the end of 2007.  Additionally, in the seventh annual report issued by Wealth Manager Magazine, Provise was once again recognized as one of the leading wealth management firms in the country based on assets per client.  ProVise has been on the list in each of the six years for which it was eligible.  While we are proud of these rankings, we are even more proud of the relationship we have with each of our clients.

• Here are some interesting statistics drawn from Met Life Mature Market Institute.  They did a survey of 56 to 65 year olds who are thinking about retirement.  49% believe that their income needs will drop by half after they retire.  Our experience shows us that most people want to maintain their current income levels.  43% believe that they can withdraw 10% or more per year from their retirement accounts without ever exhausting their capital.  Most financial planners suggest a draw down rate of 4% being the maximum that young, healthy retirees should be taking from their investment accounts each year.  38% of those surveyed believe that long-term care is provided by health insurance, Medicare, or disability insurance.  Medicare has very limited long-term care benefits, and only if you preceded a long-term care stay by a hospital stay.  We are not aware of any health insurance or disability insurance programs that provide long-term care.  An individual long-term care policy is required.  56% of those surveyed believe that longevity risk is the greatest financial risk for retirees.  They are correct.  Having said that, 60% of those surveyed believed that at age 65 they would only have a 25% or less chance of living beyond age 85.  The reality is that there is a 50/50 chance that once you reach age 65 you will make it to age 85.

• This comes from a friend of ours who is with a leading money management firm located on the West Coast.  Over the past several weeks, we have been exchanging e-mails which have addressed the long-term economic outlook.  He put together his own “Letterman Top Ten” as to why the long-term outlook is “Bullish”.  Number ten:  Stocks are cheap compared to most historical values and PE(s).  Number Nine:  Major blue chips are trading at very low prices and are obviously over-sold.  Number Eight:  The commodities boom will moderate and speculators will get “killed” as it drops.  Number Seven:  Closed-end funds are trading at all time discounts to NAV.  Number Six:  There has been so much economic stimulus that the recession, albeit real and likely to last into 2009, will not be severe.  Number Five:  The short sellers are starting to get clobbered.  Number Four:  The media has over hyped the issues in the market and over selling has occurred.  Number Three:  There are trillions of dollars in cash on the sidelines and it must come back into the market at some point.  Number Two:  Foreign investments will be at an all time high (Budweiser anyone?) which will prop up and drive stocks in the long run.  Number One:  Corporate profits are good, and even in recession, American companies ADJUST.  We have quoted this “Top Ten” list with the permission of the author, and the list does not necessarily reflect the views of ProVise.  Having said that, it’s certainly difficult to argue with much of the list.

• Over the years, we have been approached by many promoters of offshore opportunities for our clients.  We have steadfastly avoided becoming involved with any of these “opportunities”, as our belief is that in most situations there are other alternatives to the benefits purported to be had by taking advantage of offshore accounts.  Any offshore investment that indicates that it can avoid paying income taxes to the United States is a scam, is illegal, or both.  Nonetheless, many Americans have believed some of the promoters from Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and in some cases, the Caribbean, especially the Caymans, with the government running significant deficits, they are now doing everything they can to collect money.  The Senate Finance Committee has been conducting some very public hearings about this issue for the past few months, and it wouldn’t surprise us in the lease to see some laws enacted with much better “teeth” to them than what is currently on the books.

• At the end of June 2008, the Consumer Price Index was up 5% for the previous 12 months.  In the 12 month period ending June 30, 2007, inflation was up 2.7%.  (Source:  Department of Labor)  Much of the increase from 2007 to 2008 was driven by higher energy and food prices.  All of us paid more at the pump, and of course, increased energy costs also found their way into different aspects of the economy.  With the recent abatement of oil prices, we should see some adjustment in the price of gasoline, etc.  However, much of the higher fuel costs are here to stay.  (Source:  Department of Labor)

• While the closure of IndyMac Bank certainly created a lot of headlines and caused people to examine their own savings & loans and banks, it is important to put it into perspective.  So far this year, seven banks have failed and been taken over by the FDIC.  This is the highest number of bank failures to occur since 2002.  There are 90 banks currently listed as “problem banks” by the FDIC.  In the last “banking crisis”, during 1987 through 1991, a total of 1,901 banks and savings & loans failed in the U.S.  Although this is around 1 per day during that period of time, it pales in comparison to the 9,096 banks which went under during the three and a half years that followed the 1929 stock market crash.  (Source:  FDIC)

As always, we encourage you to give us a call if you would like to discuss anything further.  We will visit again soon.

RAY, KIM, ERIC, BRUCE, and LOU

©7/30/08 ProVise Management Group, LLC

This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the contents may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.  It is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.  Forward looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties.  Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in these Bullets,, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in these Bullets serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from ProVise.  To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.  Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.  The information contained herein is not guaranteed by Provise Management Group, LLC as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.  The indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be directly invested into. .  If you do not want to receive the ProVise Bullets, please contact us at:  info@provise.com or call:  (727) 441-9022.  Please visit our Web Site at:  www.provise.com.

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