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Zombie Love: Barack Obama, GMAC and Ally BankInstitutional Risk AnalyticsChris WhalenOctober 28, 2009
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Give me Give me I don't need your sweet devotion Frank Zappa Kudos to The Wall Street Journal, which scooped the rest of the Big Media last night by reporting that GMAC Inc. is asking for yet another $3 billion bailout from the US Treasury. If Citigroup (NYSE:C) is the Queen of the Zombie Dance Party and AIG (NYSE:AIG) the King, then GMAC is certainly one of the children. In relative terms, GMAC has received far more subsidies than any other zombie and seemingly has no access to the private markets in terms of raising new equity. Of the 19 banks subject to the Fed's stress tests earlier this year, GMAC is the only bank that has not raised the required private capital. Looking at the latest 10-Q from GMAC filed with the SEC, the only question we have is why isn't GMAC already in bankruptcy? In Q2 2009, GMAC reported a net loss of $3.9 billion on $3.6 billion in net revenue. We can't wait to read the Q3 10-Q. Even if you back out the $1.3 billion in depreciation expense for GMAC, the picture remains pretty bleak. Revenue and total assets are down significantly from a year ago, a characteristic that GMAC shares with C and other zombie banks. Most important, the fact that GMAC as a whole is shrinking makes a lie of claims by the White House that this hideous zombie needs to be kept alive to provide credit to the US economy. Looking at GMAC's bank subsidiary, Ally Bank, the picture is even more alarming. As of Q2 2009, Ally Bank was rated "F" by the IRA Bank Monitor. The chief reason for the poor rating is the negative score for ROE, but defaults are also elevated compared to the US industry average. The Q2 2009 Banking Stress Index is shown below. IRA Bank Stress Index Rating -- Ally Bank -- Q2 2009
Source: FDIC/The IRA Bank Monitor We hear that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and his minions at the Treasury have already blessed an additional $3 billion cash infusion to keep GMAC afloat for a few more months, this on top of the $12 billion in public funds already thrown into the furnace. But keep in mind that at the current burn rate inside GMAC, it looks to us like this dancing zombie will be back looking for another handout from Washington early in Q1 2010. About IRA Products and Services IRA offers advanced analytics for risk surveillance and investment research via subscription products such as the IRA Bank Monitor for Professionals covering the US banking industry and the IRA Corporate Monitor covering public companies. For a trial subscription or an on-line demonstration, please register here. IRA Advisory Services including our channel research and diligence support services are available to qualified clients. For more information, please contact our offices. IRA for Consumers IRA provides consumers easy to buy online reports to independently check on their banks via our How's My Bank? system. IRA on Web 2.0 For updates during the week please follow IRA www.twitter.com/IRABankMonitor. (c) Institutional Risk Analytics |
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