Republicans Now Favored to Take Back the House?
Bespoke Investment Group
April 21, 2010
Intrade.com has contracts on whether the Republicans or Democrats will control the US House of Representatives following the 2010 mid-term elections. While the Democrats currently hold a large majority in the House, the odds for them retaining that majority after 2010 have been declining over the past year or so. Interestingly, after the recent health care reform bill passed, the contract for Democrats to retain majority bumped up a little. That bump up appears to have been short lived, however. As of today, the Republicans are now favored to win majority of the House after the 2010 elections. The current odds based on Intrade's contract prices are 50.1% for a Republican majority and 45% for a Democratic majority. These odds are sure to change over the next six months as election day approaches, but we felt this shift above 50% for Republicans and below 50% for Democrats was noteworthy.
(c) Bespoke Investment Group
