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Sentiment
   Neutral
Asset Class
   Investment-Grade Bonds
Region
   US

Corporate Bond Report
Bond Desk Group
By Chris Shayne
October 7, 2011


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 In This Issue

 1 Market Recap

2 Trading Volume

3 Yields & Spreads

5 U.S. Treasury Curve

6 Appendix A: Yield Matrix

7 Appendix B: Sector Analysis

8 Appendix C: Most Active Buys

9 Appendix D: Most Active Sells

10 Appendix E: Highest Buy/Sell Ratios

11 Appendix F: Lowest Buy/Sell Ratios

 

September, 2011

Market Recap

The following points summarize the developments in the retail market for corporate bonds last month.

September was another dramatic month on Wall Street. A steady stream of bad news from Europe, concerns about the domestic economy, and yet another intervention from the Federal Reserve (Operation Twist) roiled equity markets. By month’s end, all three major domestic indexes had lost over 6%.

The equity market turmoil impacted yields for retail corporate bonds as expected, but the effect was not consistent across rating grades. Yields for 2nd tier investment grade (A, BBB) bonds increased substantially, while upper tier (AAA, AA) were largely unchanged. This was a continuation of the trend established in August.

Retail demand increased substantially in September, as investors aggressively took advantage of the higher yields. Buying activity increased to its highest level since March, and selling activity fell to its lowest level since April, 2009.

The buy/sell ratio increased to 1.8 in September, a substantial increase over the 1.4 ratio in August.

Demand for taxable (i.e., corporate) bond funds was also quite strong in September. According to the Investment Company Institute, mutual funds received $13B in net inflows during September.

The Fed announced Operation Twist on 9/21, a new easing program intended to flatten the yield curve. Surprisingly, yields increased after the announcement, but once it takes effect the expectation is that yields will drop at the long end of the curve and increase in the mid-range portion.

Financial firms continued to dominate the retail market in terms of yield. The median 5-year, “A” financial bond yielded 4.3%, while the median “A” industrial bond yielded 1.8%.

Financial firms also dominated the retail market in terms of liquidity. In September 58% of all retail buy transactions were financials.

Although there are thousands of different corporate bond issuers, in September the top 20 most actively traded companies made up roughly 48% of all investor buy trades. That is a minor decrease from last month (49%), and much higher than normal.  The Top 20 typically accounts for 44% of all trades.

 

About the Corporate Market Transparency Report

The data and analysis contained in this monthly report are intended to provide transparency into the dynamics of the corporate bond market for retail investors. The report describes the important trends in the market, including trading volumes, most active issuers, yield/spread movements and buy/sell ratios.

Retail trades are typically defined as odd-lot transactions under 100 bonds (i.e., less than $100,000 par value).  The retail market is much smaller than the institutional market on a par value basis, but it accounts for roughly 75% of the trades that occur in the marketplace.

Author:

Chris Shayne, CFA

 

Data & Analytics:

Farshad Mashayekhi, PhD

Alison Li, PhD

About BondDesk Group LLC

BondDesk Group LLC is the nation’s largest retail bond trading venue, providing enterprise-wide fixed income solutions to many of the top broker-dealers in North America.

The BondDesk Alternative Trading System (ATS), run by BondDesk Trading LLC, connects broker-dealers through a centralized marketplace by offering a diverse pool of liquidity for odd-lot fixed income securities in multiple asset classes.

Market Transparency Report

Retail Trades of Corporate Bonds

 


Trading Volume

As you can see from the left-hand chart, buying activity increased throughout the month of September, peaking above 13,500 on 9/27. The consistent increase in investor demand is due to the aforementioned increase in yields (see next section for more detail).

As the right-hand graph shows, buying activity in September was the strongest it’s been for the past few months. The daily average for September was 9,313, which is the highest level since March, when it hit 9,349 trades per day.

 

Daily Buy Trades, September, 2011                                                                    

 

Monthly Average Buys Per Day since Jan, 2009

Source: TRACE

As you can see from the left-hand chart, selling activity also increased during September. This is somewhat counter-intuitive as yields were rising and prices were falling, but there are two likely explanations. One is that the market volatility made investors nervous and they decided to sell their corporate bonds. Another is that investors tried to lock in gains before prices fell any further. 

But as the right-hand chart shows, the levels were quite low relative to the past 12 months. In fact, the average daily selling volume was 5,231 in September, which is the lowest figure since April of 2009, when the average volume was 4,512. So the upward trend still resulted in a low absolute level, which is consistent with expectations.

 

Daily Sell Trades, September, 2011                                                                       

 

Monthly Average Sells Per Day since Jan, 2009

Source: TRACE


Yields and Spreads

As you can see from the left-hand graph, median corporate yields rose throughout September. Most of the increase came from the lower quality investment grade issuers (BBB, A), which we will discuss in more detail in the next section. As the right-hand chart shows, the September increases were a continuation of the August trend, and also the highest yields at any point during the past 12 months.

 

Daily Median Yields, September, 2011                                                            

 

Daily Median Yields, past 12 months

Source: TRACE

As the left-hand graph shows, spreads continued to widen during September. Again, this is expected given all of the uncertainty in the market. Spreads are a proxy for credit risk, and they tend to increase during periods of distress.

As you can see from the right-hand chart, the September increase was a continuation of the August increase, though not quite as dramatic.

 

Credit Spreads

In exchange for greater credit risk associated with corporate issuers, investors require corporate bonds to pay a higher yield than Treasuries, which are guaranteed by the U.S. government. The credit spread is the difference in yield between Treasuries and non-Treasuries for bonds of similar maturity. 

   

Daily Median Spreads, September, 2011                                                         

Daily Median Spreads, past 12 months

Source: TRACE


 

Yields by Rating Grade

Although median yields rose during September, the increases were not consistent across rating categories. Lower quality investment grade firms (BBB and A, particularly financials) saw their yields increase substantially, while higher quality IG firms saw their yields essentially move sideways.

This is the second month in a row we’ve observed this basic pattern. It suggests that the market is treating the higher quality firms as though they are exempt from the macroeconomic uncertainty that is impacting the spreads/yields of the lower quality firms.

As you can see from the chart below, for most of this year yields on AAA, AA, and A firms have moved in unison so this is a relatively new trend. Several market commentators, including BondDesk (see link at end of this commentary), have observed that the current yield environment is a buying opportunity for retail investors. Of course the increased yields suggest risk has also increased, so investors need to be mindful of their risk tolerance, but with Treasury yields near historic lows (see next section) it is worth considering A & BBB bonds.

 

Median Yield by Rating, 10-day moving average

Source: TRACE & BondDesk

 


 

 

U.S. Treasury Curve

Of course the big news about the Treasury curve in September was Operation Twist, announced on 9/21. The program is different than the previous Fed interventions (Quantitative Easing I & II) because it does not call for printing new money to buy Treasury bonds. Rather, the Fed intends to sell $400B worth of existing positions – specifically medium-term Treasuries – to raise capital to buy long-term Treasuries. The idea is to flatten the curve by simultaneously raising medium-term yields and lowering long-term yields.

Flooding the market with medium-term Treasuries drops the market value by increasing the supply, thus increasing yields. Conversely, buying hundreds of billions of long-term Treasuries has the opposite effect.

Surprisingly, Treasury yields increased in the first few days after the program was announced, but the trend didn’t persist. Treasury yields are still near historic lows.

The upper chart shows 10-year yields for the past month only. The lower chart shows the one year history of closing 10-year yields.

 

 

 

Source: BondDesk Group LLC

 


 

Appendix A: Yield Matrix

In this section we display the median yields for corporate bonds in each major agency rating grade and maturity bucket. We have created three different matrices – financials, industrials, and utilities – because each sector has its own yield behavior. (Note that we post daily yield matrices on www.bonddeskgroup.com.)

 

 

% of Trades

Median Yield, %

Median Spread, %

 

 

1Y

2Y

3Y

5Y

7Y

10Y

15Y

20Y

Financials

AAA

0

-

1.7

-

-

-

-

-

-

1.50

AA

12

0.9

1.5

2.3

3.0

4.9

4.2

4.5

5.5

2.05

A

27

3.2

2.9

4.0

4.3

5.1

5.5

5.8

6.3

3.32

BBB

13

2.9

3.9

5.2

5.7

5.7

7.3

6.9

6.8

4.31

BB

3

3.0

4.6

5.5

7.3

5.1

6.1

8.6

7.6

4.47

B

3

6.4

6.6

7.5

8.5

8.7

7.4

10.6

8.5

6.41

C

0.4

22.8

-

15.8

16.5

-

12.0

9.8

12.0

14.94

Industrial

AAA

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.5

1.2

2.3

2.5

-

4.0

0.55

AA

2

0.6

0.7

1.1

1.4

2.4

2.7

3.7

4.3

0.65

A

5

0.7

0.8

1.4

1.8

2.7

3.2

4.6

4.5

0.99

BBB

11

1.2

1.6

2.5

3.2

4.6

5.4

5.6

6.2

2.95

BB

6

2.6

4.2

5.8

5.7

7.6

7.5

6.8

8.2

5.50

B

5

3.6

6.0

8.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.4

8.6

6.27

C

3

5.7

7.9

16.6

13.2

17.1

10.7

10.6

9.0

11.02

Utilities

AAA

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

AA

0

1.1

1.2

-

1.7

-

-

-

4.4

1.02

A

3

0.9

1.2

1.6

2.1

2.8

3.3

5.2

5.0

1.39

BBB

3

3.1

3.5

3.4

4.6

3.9

5.0

6.7

6.1

3.00

BB

1

-

3.8

5.5

5.3

6.7

6.6

7.8

8.7

4.78

B

1

3.4

4.4

7.1

7.5

7.6

7.9

8.4

9.2

6.05

C

0.7

-

8.7

22.3

15.2

10.4

9.8

13.8

-

13.65

Source: BondDesk Group LLC & TRACE

 

 

About the BondDesk Yield Matrix

You can use these yield matrices to benchmark your own investment opportunities. Bonds that conform to the yields in this table are trading in line with prevailing market opinion.  But bonds with a substantially different yield may be subject to differences in credit, liquidity, or other pricing characteristics.  You need to research each individual bond to form your own opinion.

The expected behavior of this matrix is that yields increase as you descend each column (because credit risk is increasing) and also as you move left-to-right (because interest rate risk is increasing). Investors generally demand more compensation for greater credit risk and longer holding periods.


 


Appendix B: Sector Analysis

The following pie chart shows the trading activity (investor buys only) in each sector last month. Financial firms are unique because they issue debt as a core function of their business operations, so they regularly provide a disproportionately large supply of fixed income securities to the market. They also tend to pay higher yields, so they are generally popular with retail investors.

 

 

Source: TRACE


Appendix C: Most Actively Traded Issuers - Investor Buys

Although there are thousands of different corporate bond issuers, individual investors tend to concentrate their purchases among a small group. The following table shows the percentage share of each of the top 20 issuers.

 

Issuer Symbol

Issuer Name

Rating

Number of Trades

% of Trades

Median Yield (%)

Median Maturity (yr)

Median Spread (%)

1

BAC

BANK OF AMERICA CORP

BBB

16,557

8.5

5.2

3.8

4.3

2

MS

MORGAN STANLEY

A

15,307

7.8

5.3

4.2

3.9

3

GS

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC

A

11,513

5.9

5.2

8.7

3.0

4

GE

GENERAL ELECTRIC CAPITAL CORP

AA

9,452

4.8

3.4

6.4

1.9

5

JPM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO

AA

4,766

2.4

2.9

4.3

2.0

6

AIG

INTERNATIONAL LEASE FINANCE CORP

BB

3,656

1.9

6.7

2.0

5.9

7

C

CITIGROUP INC

A

3,493

1.8

4.6

5.4

2.9

8

GNW

GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC

BBB

3,228

1.7

8.2

6.7

7.0

9

GMA

ALLY FINANCIAL INC

B

2,973

1.5

6.0

2.3

5.7

10

F

FORD MOTOR CREDIT CO LLC

BB

2,735

1.4

4.6

4.0

3.8

11

BCS

BARCLAYS BANK PLC

AA

2,610

1.3

4.9

5.0

3.4

12

AA

ALCOA INC

BBB

2,386

1.2

5.3

9.6

3.3

13

X

UNITED STATES STEEL CORP

BB

2,313

1.2

7.3

6.4

6.2

14

MT

ARCELORMITTAL SA

BBB

2,193

1.1

5.7

8.9

3.9

15

CS

CREDIT SUISSE (NEW YORK BRANCH)

AA

2,138

1.1

5.4

8.3

3.5

16

HBC

HSBC FINANCE CORP

A

1,890

1.0

3.1

2.3

2.6

17

PRU

PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC

BBB

1,766

0.9

3.1

6.2

2.1

18

WFC

WELLS FARGO & CO

A

1,736

0.9

2.7

3.2

2.1

19

T

AT&T INC

A

1,708

0.9

2.7

6.4

1.3

20

VZ

VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC

A

1,638

0.8

3.0

7.1

1.5

Source: BondDesk Group LLC & TRACE


Appendix D: Most Actively Traded Issuers: Investor Sells

Just as investors tend to concentrate buying activity in a few popular names, selling activity is similarly concentrated.

 

Issuer Symbol

Issuer Name

Rating

Number of Trades

% of Trades

Median Yield (%)

Median Maturity (yr)

Median Spread (%)

1

BAC

BANK OF AMERICA CORP

BBB

8,665

7.9

5.9

4.2

5.0

2

GE

GENERAL ELECTRIC CAPITAL CORP

AA

7,195

6.5

3.2

4.9

2.2

3

JPM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO

AA

3,632

3.3

3.3

4.0

2.3

4

GS

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC

A

3,398

3.1

4.1

4.3

3.2

5

MS

MORGAN STANLEY

A

2,978

2.7

4.9

2.5

4.3

6

VZ

VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC

A

2,273

2.1

3.0

6.6

1.8

7

C

CITIGROUP INC

A

2,163

2.0

4.4

3.1

3.2

8

GMA

ALLY FINANCIAL INC

B

2,129

1.9

6.9

0.9

5.7

9

T

AT&T INC

A

2,115

1.9

2.8

6.4

1.8

10

WFC

WELLS FARGO & CO

A

2,112

1.9

3.1

2.7

2.3

11

F

FORD MOTOR CREDIT CO LLC

BB

1,431

1.3

5.2

3.7

4.4

12

WMT

WAL-MART STORES INC

AA

1,325

1.2

2.9

9.1

1.2

13

PRU

PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC

BBB

1,266

1.2

3.2

3.7

2.5

14

LEHM

LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLDINGS INC

A

1,107

1.0

-

37.4

-

15

COP

CONOCOPHILLIPS

A

1,070

1.0

2.1

5.1

1.2

16

HBC

HSBC FINANCE CORP

A

1,069

1.0

3.9

1.4

3.4

17

AIG

INTERNATIONAL LEASE FINANCE CORP

BB

1,028

0.9

8.8

2.7

8.4

18

AXP

AMERICAN EXPRESS CREDIT CORP

A

888

0.8

2.3

2.7

1.9

19

CIT

CIT GROUP INC

B

854

0.8

5.3

0.1

5.1

20

BCS

BARCLAYS BANK PLC

AA

844

0.8

5.5

2.8

3.8

Source: BondDesk Group LLC & TRACE


Appendix E: Highest Buy/Sell Ratios

Because many individual investors hold bonds to maturity, we expect to see more buy transactions than sell transactions, particularly among the liquid names in the retail bond market (i.e., the top 100 most actively traded issuers).

 

The following table displays the 20 corporate issuers with the highest buy/sell ratios. The higher the ratio, the more investors purchased these bonds and the less they sold. This is a useful statistic because it gives you a sense of momentum in the market.

The data shown below is distinct from the “most active” tables described previously because it compares the ratio of buys to sells rather than simply looking at the volume of buys or sells. An issuer with a comparatively low total volume of buys may have a very high buy/sell ratio, and vice-versa.

Investors need to decide whether to follow the herd and buy the issuers with a high buy/sell ratio or whether to avoid those issuers.

 

Issuer Symbol

Issuer Name

Rating

Number of Buys

% of Buys

Number of Sells

% of Sells

Buys vs. Sells

Median Yield (%)

Median Maturity (yr)

Median Spread (%)

 

 

All Issuers

 

195,575

100.0

109,852

100.0

1.8

-

-

-

1

ANL

ABBEY NATIONAL TREASURY SVCS PLC

AA

808

0.4

24

0.0

33.7

5.0

4.7

4.2

2

BBY

BEST BUY CO INC

BBB

1,417

0.7

56

0.1

25.3

5.8

9.5

3.8

3

AGO

ASSURED GUARANTY US HLDNGS INC

A

512

0.3

26

0.0

19.7

7.3

22.7

4.1

4

X

UNITED STATES STEEL CORP

BB

2,313

1.2

145

0.1

16.0

7.3

6.4

6.2

5

GJM

ALLY FINANCIAL INC

B

509

0.3

39

0.0

13.1

7.4

3.4

6.1

6

GPS

GAP INC

BBB

532

0.3

47

0.0

11.3

6.5

9.6

4.5

7

CTL

CENTURYLINK INC

BB

794

0.4

71

0.1

11.2

6.6

9.7

4.6

8

MT

ARCELORMITTAL SA

BBB

2,193

1.1

232

0.2

9.5

5.7

8.9

3.9

9

VMC

VULCAN MATERIALS CO

BB

611

0.3

72

0.1

8.5

6.8

6.2

5.8

10

LYG

LLOYDS TSB BANK PLC

AA

826

0.4

99

0.1

8.3

5.5

4.4

4.2

11

DNY

RR DONNELLEY & SONS CO

BB

1,198

0.6

151

0.1

7.9

6.7

3.7

6.4

12

LNC

LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP

BBB

565

0.3

80

0.1

7.1

4.8

54.7

2.8

13

SUN

SUNOCO INC

BB

714

0.4

105

0.1

6.8

5.5

5.3

4.6

14

MAS

MASCO CORP

BBB

591

0.3

87

0.1

6.8

6.3

5.1

5.1

15

TEF

TELEFONICA EMISIONES SAU

BBB

567

0.3

89

0.1

6.4

4.8

4.4

3.7

16

SHLD

SEARS HOLDINGS CORP

BB

830

0.4

139

0.1

6.0

9.4

7.1

7.4

17

TI

TELECOM ITALIA CAPITAL SA

BBB

686

0.4

119

0.1

5.8

5.9

3.1

5.1

18

HIG

HARTFORD FIN SVCS GROUP INC

BBB

1,526

0.8

268

0.2

5.7

5.1

25.1

3.4

19

JEF

JEFFERIES GROUP INC

BBB

831

0.4

148

0.1

5.6

5.6

6.6

3.8

20

PTV

PACTIV CORP

C

462

0.2

86

0.1

5.4

10.6

15.6

7.4

Source: BondDesk Group LLC & TRACE. Based on top 100 most actively traded issuers.


Appendix F: Lowest Buy/Sell Ratios

Issuers who are out-of-favor with retail investors will usually have a low buy/sell ratio. In other words, individual investors may buy some of their bonds, but mostly they are selling them.

 

Issuer Symbol

Issuer Name

Rating

Number of Buys

% of Buys

Number of Sells

% of Sells

Buys vs. Sells

Median Yield

Median Mat (yr)

Median Spread (%)

 

 

All Issuers

 

195,575

100.0

109,852

100.0

1.8

-

-

-

1

SCGL

SG AMERICAS SECURITIES, LLC

A

75

0.0

755

0.7

0.1

6.9

0.3

4.8

2

COP

CONOCOPHILLIPS

A

343

0.2

1,070

1.0

0.3

2.0

5.1

1.1

3

HD

HOME DEPOT INC

BBB

170

0.1

523

0.5

0.3

2.2

4.5

1.3

4

CIT

CIT GROUP INC

B

377

0.2

854

0.8

0.4

5.3

0.1

5.1

5

ORCL

ORACLE CORP

A

173

0.1

369

0.3

0.5

1.6

4.3

0.7

6

KFT

KRAFT FOODS INC

BBB

440

0.2

805

0.7

0.5

2.9

4.4

1.6

7

CMCS

COMCAST CORP

BBB

305

0.2

548

0.5

0.6

3.0

5.4

1.8

8

BUD

ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV  INC

BBB

351

0.2

622

0.6

0.6

2.8

5.0

1.3

9

ABT

ABBOTT LABORATORIES

AA

210

0.1

372

0.3

0.6

2.2

6.2

0.9

10

DD

E I DU PONT & CO

A

200

0.1

353

0.3

0.6

1.6

4.3

0.8

11

WMT

WAL-MART STORES INC

AA

768

0.4

1,325

1.2

0.6

2.7

8.8

0.9

12

BLS

BELLSOUTH CORP

A

458

0.2

790

0.7

0.6

5.2

16.7

2.1

13

IBM

INTL BUS MACHINES CORP

AA

252

0.1

421

0.4

0.6

1.2

2.1

0.6

14

RDS

SHELL INTL FINANCE BV

AA

265

0.1

419

0.4

0.6

1.4

3.8

0.6

15

PFE

PFIZER INC

AA

258

0.1

401

0.4

0.6

1.4

3.5

0.6

16

DE

JOHN DEERE CAPITAL CORP

A

344

0.2

526

0.5

0.7

1.2

1.8

0.7

17

VZ

VERIZON COMMS INC

A

1,638

0.8

2,273

2.1

0.7

3.0

6.6

1.6

18

DUK

DUKE ENERGY CORP

A

270

0.1

362

0.3

0.7

2.5

3.5

1.4

19

BA

BOEING CO

A

238

0.1

318

0.3

0.7

1.5

3.1

0.8

20

PEP

PEPSICO INC

A

395

0.2

524

0.5

0.8

2.1

6.7

0.7

Source: BondDesk Group LLC & TRACE. Based on top 100 most actively traded issuers.

 


Disclosures

BondDesk Trading LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of BondDesk Group LLC. 

This report represents certain customer trades in securities that have been reported by dealers to FINRA's Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE).  The report does not necessarily reflect all transactions that were effected on dates noted.  There is the possibility of errors or delays in the trade submission process.  Prices for transactions vary with market conditions and can be affected by trade size and other factors.  The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, however BondDesk Group LLC does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in this report. 

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates.  Fixed-income investments are subject to various risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.  Defaults on interest payments and/or principal may also occur.  Projections, results and assumptions contained herein reflect past performance of the referenced securities and asset classes.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate such that an investment, if and when redeemed, may be worth more or less than its original cost. 

This information is intended for general informational purposes only, and should not be used as the sole basis for any investment decisions.  None of the information in the report constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial product, a recommendation concerning any security, financial product or asset class, or an offer to provide investment advice or any other service.  Where appropriate, please consult with a qualified financial and tax professional. 

“A Buying Opportunity in Investment Grade Corporate Bonds,” Advisor Perspectives, 9/27/2011. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters11/A_Buying_Opportunity_in_Investment-Grade_Corporate_Bonds.php

(c) Bond Desk Group

www.bonddesk.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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