The International Channel

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Decline in Advance of the Inauguration

The S&P 500 hit its 0.11% intraday high five minutes into the session and then sold off steadily to its 2 PM plunge to its -0.59% intraday low. A weak buy-the-dip strategy trimmed the closing loss to -0.36%. The 500 has alternated between gains and losses for the past six sessions. Its elderly cousin, the Dow, has posted five consecutive losses and eight declines over the past ten sessions.

Will Donald Trumpism Bury Davos Elitism?

Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors Neil Dwane says the rumbling sound being heard by politicians and power-brokers at the World Economic Forum in Davos comes from a new political avalanche of populism – one that threatens to sweep away decades of pro-globalization sentiment and change the investment landscape.

Choose Your Own Misadventure: Bronfman E.L. Rothschild 2016 Q4 Review

Part of our early January ritual is to read a number of market and economic projections for the upcoming year. And although they are interesting and (generally) thoughtful, to be frank, the articles are basically all the same…

4 Small-Cap Specialists on 2017

Small-caps had a great run in 2016, but what should investors expect from 2017? Four veteran small-cap portfolio managers share how key developments in 2016 are shaping their 2017 outlook and portfolio positioning.

European Banks: Be Mindful of Risks in 2017

European banks seem to be on an upward trajectory – although improvements are likely to come at a slow pace and with some risks.

Weekly Market Summary

Global equities are nearly 25% higher than in February 2016. A tailwind for this rally has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash. That's no longer the case. Optimism towards the economy has surged to a 2-year high.

3 Telltale Signs the Japan Rally May Not Be Over

With U.S. stocks rallying, investors may be tempted to stick with a home country bias. Russ discusses why Japan is still worth a look.

Inflation is Finally Surprising to the Upside But it Looks Like it’s All About Oil Prices

For the first time since 2011-2012, inflation surprises are positive in many parts of the world. The Citi Inflation Surprise Index is at the highest level since 9/2011 in Asia-Pacific, it’s at the highest level since 10/2011 for the Eurozone, and it’s at the highest level since 5/2012 in the emerging markets.

Emerging Markets Q4 2016 Recap: A Wobbly Quarter, but Reasons for Optimism

Templeton Emerging Markets Group has a wide investment universe to cover—tens of thousands of companies in markets on nearly every continent! While we are bottom-up investors, we also take into account big-picture context.

Trump Deficits Will Be Huge

There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess.

New Year, New Policies, and Managing the New Risks

We would like to take this opportunity to extend our warmest Holiday Wishes to all of our clients and their advisers. 2016 certainly was a year for the history books – from the Brexit surprise to the November surprise; the year certainly was not one that improved the reputation of pollsters!

The Paradox of Chinese Drift

While Chinese growth looks stable into early 2017, a more marked slowdown by the second quarter appears inevitable.

Fear Not: EM Bonds Can Handle Higher Rates, Trump

Higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and Donald Trump: three reasons to avoid emerging-market (EM) debt? Not necessarily. Rising rates seem to be signaling faster growth, and that’s good news for many EM bonds and currencies.

Washington, D.C. moves to center stage…

Time for the new White House and Congress to put pen to paper. While the equity markets have sustained their high levels, intra-day volatility in currencies, bonds and equities have surged as those markets attempt to react to every rumor and tweet out of Washington and Trump Tower.

Surprise!

The fourth quarter and 2016 brought several surprises to investors. Fortunately, many of those surprises were positive. The first surprise came earlier last year when the British decided to exit the Euro (Brexit). While initial market reaction was negative, the proceeding weeks that followed was a strong rally for equity investors around the world.