S&P 500 Snapshot: A Modest Gain on Light Volume
The S&P 500 hit its -0.20% intraday low five minutes into the session and then recovered to a narrow trading range around the flat line through most of the session. A small rally in the final 30 minutes lived the index to its modest closing gain of 0.18%.
Trump Deficits Will Be Huge
There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess.
The Paradox of Chinese Drift
While Chinese growth looks stable into early 2017, a more marked slowdown by the second quarter appears inevitable.
Fear Not: EM Bonds Can Handle Higher Rates, Trump
Higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and Donald Trump: three reasons to avoid emerging-market (EM) debt? Not necessarily. Rising rates seem to be signaling faster growth, and that’s good news for many EM bonds and currencies.
Trump and Asia: Now the Good News
With Donald Trump about to be sworn in as US president, markets in Asia are nervous about some of his policies, especially on trade. Investors who are alert to these policies’ likely limitations could find attractive opportunities.
Forecasting with Friends
I gave you my own thoughts last week (see “Skeptically Optimistic”). Today we’ll review several other forecasts from people who deserve your attention. Of necessity, I must leave out some good ones, but I think the ones I cover will give you plenty of useful information.
One of the attempted barbs tossed my way at various points in the past 20 years is “Cassandra.” Frankly, I kind of like it.
Playing Chess With China
American Small Businesses Party Like It’s 2004
Look at what President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to lower taxes and slash regulations is doing to business optimism here in the U.S. Last month, the Index of Small Business Optimism soared a phenomenal 7.4 points to 105.8, its highest reading since 2004. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which conducts the survey, reported that attitudes toward capital spending and job creation in particular surprised to the upside. Research firm Evercore ISI called it a “blowout report,” and I have to agree.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "2016 Shapes 2017 Cyclical Outlook"
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.9, up 0.2 from the previous week. It is currently at an all-time high. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 10.49%, up from 10.14% the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 12.2, up from 12.0 the previous week and its highest since 2010.
2017 Global Market Outlook
The search for investment portfolio returns is not going to get any easier in 2017 against a backdrop of record U.S. equity prices, narrow credit spreads and low bond yields.
2017 Commodity Outlook
While many group commodities as one asset class, in reality each commodity trades on its own fundamentals. Historic correlation between commodities has been relatively low. In this outlook we will provide an overview of our views on major commodities within each sub-category.
2017 Outlook: Focus Shifts to Fiscal Policy & Populist Politics
As the markets close the books on another tumultuous year, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says investors should keep watch on the rise of populist politics, China’s re-emergence as a global growth engine and a renewed focus on government spending as interest rates remain low.
China: For Global Investors, It’s All About the Currency
Chinese local interest rates rose substantially late last year, and many bond offerings have been canceled, creating financial strain for some Chinese companies.
War Gaming: Part I
A key element of global hegemony is the ability of a nation to project power. A nation that faces significant proximate threats will struggle to project power globally. In Part I, we examine American hegemony from a foreign nation’s perspective.