S&P 500 Snapshot: A Modest Gain on Light Volume
The S&P 500 hit its -0.20% intraday low five minutes into the session and then recovered to a narrow trading range around the flat line through most of the session. A small rally in the final 30 minutes lived the index to its modest closing gain of 0.18%.
Trump Deficits Will Be Huge
There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess.
New Year, New Policies, and Managing the New Risks
We would like to take this opportunity to extend our warmest Holiday Wishes to all of our clients and their advisers. 2016 certainly was a year for the history books – from the Brexit surprise to the November surprise; the year certainly was not one that improved the reputation of pollsters!
The Paradox of Chinese Drift
While Chinese growth looks stable into early 2017, a more marked slowdown by the second quarter appears inevitable.
Fear Not: EM Bonds Can Handle Higher Rates, Trump
Higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and Donald Trump: three reasons to avoid emerging-market (EM) debt? Not necessarily. Rising rates seem to be signaling faster growth, and that’s good news for many EM bonds and currencies.
Washington, D.C. moves to center stage…
Time for the new White House and Congress to put pen to paper. While the equity markets have sustained their high levels, intra-day volatility in currencies, bonds and equities have surged as those markets attempt to react to every rumor and tweet out of Washington and Trump Tower.
The Long Cycle Continues
GSAM expects the long post-crisis economic recovery to continue in 2017 and prefers equities over credit and credit over rates. Broadening exposure beyond conventional stocks and bonds, identifying opportunities in emerging markets and deploying more dynamic asset allocation strategies are some ways to adapt.
"Ain't No Mountain High Enough"
Who can forget the harrowing start to the year that saw markets plunge 13% in the first 20 days of January? China debt fears, global deflation, secular stagnation worries, the Brexit and the United States election surprises were the dominant headlines of 2016.
On My Radar: Keep One Eye On Bonds. Keep the Other on Inflation
I hate making predictions. I got the tech wreak and sub-prime right, but was far too early on those predictions.
Trump and Asia: Now the Good News
With Donald Trump about to be sworn in as US president, markets in Asia are nervous about some of his policies, especially on trade. Investors who are alert to these policies’ likely limitations could find attractive opportunities.
Don’t Drink the Cool Aid that Bonds will Under-perform
Don’t get too far ahead of yourself and drink the cool aid that bonds will underperform. Investor fears of higher interest rates have caused volatility, which we believe presents opportunities in the fixed income markets. Global central banks continue to intervene in the markets in such a way that natural market mechanisms cannot function properly.
Are Investors in Denial?
You’re in denial if you believe that U.S. stocks are fairly valued, the Eurozone does not face a crisis or a strong dollar will support stability in the global economy. Those themes were presented by Albert Edwards and his fellow speakers at annual investment conference sponsored by Societe Generale.
Lifting Your Clients above the Fray
Periods of fear and confusion are when your clients need you the most. On that note, here are several areas advisors should focus on to better serve their clients in times of need.
What I Learned from Value Investor Guy Spier
Guy Spier published a book, The Education of a Value Investor: My Transformative Quest for Wealth, Wisdom, and Enlightenment. It is not a traditional investing book. In fact, I’ll say that differently: This is the most untraditional book on investing you’re likely to encounter.
Forecasting with Friends
I gave you my own thoughts last week (see “Skeptically Optimistic”). Today we’ll review several other forecasts from people who deserve your attention. Of necessity, I must leave out some good ones, but I think the ones I cover will give you plenty of useful information.