More on Related Themes
2016-02-08 00:00:00 “Moneyball” Investing: Factors without Fama or French by Marc Gerstein (Article)
Eugene Fama and Kenneth French deserve enormous respect for the work they did in legitimizing an equity investors’ consideration of risk factors beyond the stock market itself and in identifying those factors. But to use factors as effectively as we can, we’ll have to use a framework that meets our client-centered concerns, which are not necessarily the same as those of academicians.
2016-01-29 00:00:00 Denmark Is THE Bright Spot? by Jennifer Thomson of GaveKal Capital
With ~80% of all stocks down since last May’s highs, and market sentiment fairly (shall we say?) stressed, we sometimes find it helpful to take a step back and try to look at the bigger picture. Regular readers are familiar with our use of a proprietary point-and-figure methodology that we use to help us avoid underperformers in our stock selection (or, where appropriate, DE-selection) process.
2016-01-21 00:00:00 Any Bulls Left? by Burt White of LPL Financial
The number of bulls is dwindling. In periods of extreme market volatility such as we have experienced in recent weeks—and Friday, January 15, 2016, in particular, when the Dow was down over 500 points at one point before paring losses—we find it helpful to try to take some of the emotion out of our investment decisions. As difficult as that can be at times, this approach can help us reduce the chances of selling at the bottom, even though the natural reaction for many is to panic and hit the sell button.
2015-12-15 00:00:00 What to Expect When You're Expecting Uncertainty by Scott Brown of Raymond James
Last week, we looked at the Fed’s various policy tools and how the central bank will use them. This week, let’s examine the implications of a Fed rate hike. While a rate increase should be largely factored into the markets by now, the global reaction may be the largest concern for Fed officials.
2015-11-20 00:00:00 Navigating the Energy Landscape by Will Nasgovitz of Heartland Advisors
More than 12 months into the oil slump, the picture for Energy remains unsettled. A mismatch between supply and demand is making for a stubborn bear market in Energy. Tighter lending standards may create a solution to oversupply. Low costs, greater efficiency, and strong balance sheets are likely to be make or break factors for Energy companies. Here is a look at issues, pockets of optimism, and possible approaches to the volatile group.
2015-10-26 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Put the Brakes on the Breakout? by Jeffrey Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.
The week ahead is loaded with data reports and earnings news. The FOMC has another meeting and rate decision. It occurs in the context of a nice stock rebound. The punditry will be asking: Will the Fed put the brakes on the breakout?
2015-10-15 00:00:00 Squiggly Line Cartoons by Andrew Adams of Raymond James
In last Thursday’s Morning Tack, Jeff Saut referenced an opinion piece on MarketWatch that was essentially the literary equivalent of someone shooing away a stray dog. The author scoffed at the recent Dow Theory sell signal and laid out several reasons why he believed it to be wrong in this case. And I have no problem with that; we have, after all, also decided to ignore it for now because of the extreme circumstances it took to provide such a signal.
2015-09-10 00:00:00 Consulting Our Technical Playbook by Burt White of LPL Financial
When markets are tough, emotions can take over. The natural emotional response to sharp stock market declines is to sell. In periods like these, especially when the media sensationalize every gloomy angle as they tend to do, an objective look at the data can be reassuring and help us make better investment decisions.
2015-09-09 00:00:00 Technically Speaking: A Sucker's Rally? by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
In last week's technical review "The Mark Of A Bear," I stated: "The Bulls have remained firmly in charge of the markets as the reach for returns exceeded the grasp of the underlying risk. It now seems that has changed. For the first time since 2007, as we see initial markings of a potential bear market cycle." The problem in stating that we MAY be seeing the initial markings of a potential bear market cycle is that individuals assume this means the markets will crash immediately. When such an outcome does not occur, the analysis is presumed wrong.
2015-07-07 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Will FedSpeak Interrupt the Lazy, Hazy, Crazy Days of Summer? by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.
In one sense, the week ahead should be a quiet, dull semi-vacation. As Nat King Cole explained, the Lazy-Hazy-Crazy days of summer – pretzels, beer, and bikinis that never got wet. It is the lull before earnings and includes a light economic calendar. Will the A-Team need to return from the beach because of Greece? Or will it be a quiet week, disturbed only by an avalanche of FedSpeak and consequent punditry? One way or another, I think we will (finally) put the Greek drama behind us and resume the familiar debate about the Fed.
2015-06-03 00:00:00 Global Tactical Asset Allocation: Just the Facts (Part 1) by Adam Butler, Michael Philbrick, Rodrigo Gordillo of BPG & Associates
We recently came across a couple of articles making the sensational claim that TAA is nothing more than a repackaged and dressed-up version of market timing. Both articles – and others, we’ve subsequently learned – point to a Morningstar study showing that TAA has underperformed the Vanguard U.S. 60/40 balanced fund over the past few years.
2015-05-28 00:00:00 The Importance of Liquidity by Byron Wien of Blackstone
Since the axiom “Don’t fight the Fed” came into common parlance, we have all been aware that central bank policy is an important component of market performance. Most of us started out as security or business analysts and believed that fundamental factors like the pace of the economy, earnings growth and interest rates were the drivers of equity values.
2015-05-11 00:00:00 Tracking the Market with Social Media by Blair Jensen of Trade Followers
I’ve posted warnings of a short term top for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) over the past couple of weeks and since that time the market has been choppy. I’m now seeing evidence of sentiment from the Twitter stream that indicates SPX is due for a move higher. The evidence suggests that SPX should break out of its recent range. The first clue comes from 7 day momentum which has moved down into oversold territory.
2015-05-07 00:00:00 For trading, not eating! by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
Trading sardines indeed, except I have seen a lot of folks attempting to trade this market over the past few months all to no avail. What has typically happened is that one day they are able to make some money, but the next day they give that profit back.
2015-05-07 00:00:00 Emerging Markets May Make a Good Draft Pick to Add to Portfolios by Burt White of LPL Financial
The evaluation process NFL football teams go through to prepare for the NFL draft, which took place this past weekend, is not unlike the investment decision-making process.
2015-04-23 00:00:00 Tax Receipts Flash Economic Warning Sign by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management
With "tax day" now firmly behind us, it is expected that 2015 will show a record level of tax collections. This is a good thing, right? Maybe not.
2015-04-22 00:00:00 Sizing Up Small Caps by Burt White of LPL Financial
The Russell 2000 Index hit a fresh all-time high last week (on tax day, April 15, 2015) and has outpaced large caps by 205 basis points (2.05%) year to date. Although valuations are on the high side, the factors that have driven recent small cap strength, in our view, remain largely intact. Small cap technicals appear bullish, with positive relative strength and an upward sloping 40-week moving average.
2015-04-20 00:00:00 Market Rules to Remember by Mark Ungewitter of Charter Trust Company
A few years ago, I participated in a panel discussion at the 50th Annual Contrary Opinion Forum in Vermont. One of my fellow panelists, Walter Deemer of Deemer Technical Research Inc., has been a cornerstone of institutional market strategy since the early 1960’s and is this year’s recipient of the MTA’s prestigious annual award.
2015-04-03 00:00:00 The Four Questions by Rob Isbitts of Sungarden Investment Research
So with a nod to that annual Passover ritual, we present the financial markets’ current “Four Questions.” That is, why is this market different from all other markets?
2015-04-02 00:00:00 Market's March Madness by Burt White of LPL Financial
With the NCAA Final Four set, we share our own Final Four for stock market investing: economy, earnings, technicals, and valuations. With valuations above average and the economy slowing during first quarter of 2015, our championship game comes down to earnings and technicals. Based on our assessment of these four factors, we expect stock market investors will be “cutting down the nets” due to potential mid- to-high-single-digit stock market gains in 2015.
2015-03-25 00:00:00 The Dollar's Ripple Effect by Burt White of LPL Financial
In technical analysis, “intermarket analysis” looks at the way in which various markets interact. Intermarket analysis primarily looks at four market sectors: currencies, commodities, bonds, and stocks. From a technical analyst’s perspective, focusing our attention on only one market without considering what’s happening in the others leaves us in danger of missing vital directional clues and potential profits. The dollar, which has appreciated 24.4% since June 30, 2014 (as of March 19, 2015), has had an unusually strong intermarket effect of late.
2015-02-28 00:00:00 The Fat Pitch Weekly Market Summary by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch
When SPY has risen 3 weeks in a row, it most often rises further for at least one more week. SPY has been up 3 weeks in a row 19 times in the past 4 years. In 17 of those 19 times (89%), it continued up at least one more week. In one of those 19 instances, SPY gave back half its gains before going higher (yellow arrow); and in just one instance, SPY gave back 100% of its gains (red arrow).
2015-02-19 00:00:00 Energy Sector Outlook: What We Are Watching by Burt White of LPL Financial
No sector is getting more attention right now than energy. Market participants are attracted to the potential upside after both oil and the energy sector suffered substantial declines in recent months. Many see the sector as cheap, something that is not easy to find these days in the U.S. equity market. We drive by gas stations every day where we see prices have been cut in half, serving as a constant reminder of how cheap oil is. In this commentary, we discuss what we are watching to assess the opportunity in energy.
2015-02-04 00:00:00 The Absolute Return Letter - January 2015 by Team of Absolute Return Partners
In large parts of the financial community there is a strongly held belief that the problems which caused the credit crisis back in 2008-09 have never been properly addressed, causing many to suspect that it is only a matter of time before the ‘end game’ is upon us – the credit crisis Mk. II so to speak. I will in the following pages look at various ways the end game might unfold but, before I do so, I shall return to one of the subjects I discussed in the January letter – the end of cheap oil – which caused a flurry of comments and questions.
2015-01-29 00:00:00 Momentum X 2: Unleashing the True Power of Momentum by Gordon Nelson of Keystone Wealth Advisors
Momentum is one of the most researched market anomalies and has become widely accepted and used in a variety of ways for investment management. When used in practice is it most commonly referred to as relative strength or relative momentum. What happens if we combine the power of relative momentum with absolute momentum?
2015-01-09 00:00:00 Pie in the Sky? by Team of Absolute Return Partners
January each year brings with it a host of forecasts, many of which are 'pie in the sky' - silly predictions on equity markets, interest rates and currency movements. We are not in that game, but this is the first time we have written a letter in January. Why? Because we think investors should be focusing on longer term structural trends when analysing the future.
2015-01-07 00:00:00 Action and Reaction by Team of Heartland Advisors
A summary of Newton?s third law may best describe the effects of the macro events that surrounded 2014 and brought it to a close: Nothing happens in a vacuum. The trick is to anticipate what the consequence of any action might be.
2014-12-22 00:00:00 The US Dollar and the Cone of Uncertainty by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics
For the past two letters weve been looking at the global scene and trying to figure out which issues will help us outline scenarios for 2015. We finish the series today by looking at the impact of the dollar bull market on the probabilities for various 2015 developments.
2014-12-07 00:00:00 Macroeconomics Finally Gets Interesting by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics
2015 may be the year that macroeconomics really becomes interesting again, if it hasnt already. After a long period of relatively coordinated central bank policies and remarkably low volatility, the macro scene is becoming more dynamic. Thats great for those who live and die by dramatic long-term shifts in global markets, but it should be terrifying for emerging-market policymakers, currency carry traders, Texas oil men, and, frankly, the average investor. King Volatility is back on his throne.
2014-12-06 00:00:00 Five Things To Ponder: Unstoppable Force Paradox by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
As we enter the final month of the year, the markets advance got me thinking about something known as the "Unstoppable Force Paradox." While you may not be familiar with the name, you will certainly know the definition which questions "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?"
2014-11-21 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging by Burt White of LPL Financial
We believe emerging markets (EM) fundamental conditions are set for improvement in 2015, based on our outlooks for economic growth, earnings, and policy. Valuations are compelling and EM may be situated to recapture some of their relative losses from a technical perspective, particularly in Asian markets. However, somewhat mixed fundamental and technical pictures suggest a better opportunity may be forthcoming
2014-11-10 00:00:00 Dollar, China and Brazil In The Short Or Medium Term by Sebastiao Buck Tocalino of SBTCapital Clube de Investimento
The Dollar Index is approaching two important and converging barriers for its recent uptrend. The Shanghai Composite Index is also bordering the top of its channel. Brazil lost a good chance at recent elections to recycle its unsuccessful policies and government. But technical analysis may show some relief for optimism in Brazilian stocks and the EWZ ETF.
2014-11-06 00:00:00 3 Things Worth Thinking About, Including the Odds of a Suckers Rally by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
Each week in my weekly newsletter I do a complete overview on major markets, sectors and other market areas such as interest rates, gold and oil. I bring this up because the recent melt-down in oil and energy related stocks is something that I warned about in early August of this year.
2014-10-13 00:00:00 Inconceivable by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
The point is that there are many risks investors should not ignore. Making up losses is much harder than reinvesting stored capital once a clearer picture emerges. While the current belief that a correction of magnitude in the markets is "inconceivable," I am not sure that word means what they think it means.
2014-09-25 00:00:00 Dont Fight the ECB? Part 2 by Burt White of LPL Financial
Last week we discussed why buying European stocks now, following the recent stimulus announced by the ECB, is very different from buying U.S. stocks during periods of Fed stimulus in recent years. This week we take a deeper dive into the investment opportunity in Europe and evaluate fundamentals, valuations, and technicals. We recommend that investors fight the ECB. We do not believe the additional stimulus is enough for us to recommend European equities over U.S. equities at this time.
2014-07-30 00:00:00 Trains and Boats and Planes? by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
hose of you who know me know that I have had a love affair with boats ever since I was a kid. In my youth it was speedboats on various lakes in Michigan. In my teens, and into my forties, it was sailboats combined with an occasional trawler. In later life, however, it has been strictly powerboats.
2014-07-28 00:00:00 Are Interest Rates Too Low? by Scott Brown of Raymond James
In her monetary policy testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen offered no new clues regarding when the central bank will begin raising short-term interest rates. The Fed has been criticized for being behind the curve on inflation and for fueling bubbles. Neither criticism is right.
2014-06-05 00:00:00 The Investor Screwtape Letters by William Smead of Smead Capital Management
We at Smead Capital Management have been discussing some of the follies common to human nature and what we see as some pervasive trends in the investing world. These conversations got us imagining what C.S. Lewiss, The Screwtape Letters, might sound like if they were applied to todays investment environment. The satirical letters are written by an advice-giving bureaucrat in Hell named Screwtape, to his nephew Wormwood, a young demon who is learning how to lead humans astray. Taking some liberty with Lewiss work, we present what we believe Screwtape might say if he were tr
2014-04-02 00:00:00 The Treasury Yield Curve Starts its Tightening Process by Martin Pring of AdvisorShares
Martin is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)?and since 1984, he has published the ?Intermarket Review,? a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Here, Martin shares his latest technical analysis.
2014-02-20 00:00:00 Peer Group Analytics and Valuation, an Abstraction by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit
Peer group analytics and valuation are essential components when assessing the optimal risk-return equation. As opposed to an efficient frontier populated with the regressed correlated expected future returns of conventional securities or asset classes perhaps one determined by business segment operations is more advantageous.
2014-01-27 00:00:00 Greg Morris: Investing with the Trend: A Rules-based Approach to Money Management by Doug Short (Article)
Gregory L. Morriss latest book, Investing with the Trend: A Rules-based Approach to Money Management, was published on December 31 of last year, the same day the Dow and S&P 500 set new all-time highs. The Dow was up 153.2% from its March 2009 low and the S&P 500 had risen an even more impressive 173.2%. These massive rallies were the reversal of devastating drawdowns during the Great Financial Crisis. The Dow and S&P 500 had declined 53.8% and 56.8%, respectively, since their pre-crisis all-time highs in October 2007.
2014-01-03 00:00:00 Is it Lift off Time for Commodity Prices? by Martin Pring of AdvisorShares
Martin is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ) - and since 1984, he has published the "Intermarket Review," a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Martin shares his technical analysis on short and long term market momentum and the potential effect for commodity prices.
2013-12-13 00:00:00 Will Apple Follow the Microsoft Script? by Mark Ungewitter of Charter Trust Company
Back in July, we used technical analysis to anticipate a "head & shoulders" bottom in AAPL. Now that the minimum price objective of $550 has been achieved, we ask a deeper question: What does market behavior have to say about AAPLs longer-term prospects?
2013-12-03 00:00:00 Secular Bull or Secular Bear? by Leo Cesna of Relevant Investments
Applying statistical control limits to Dr. Shillers CAPE Index reveals where the S&P 500 is likely headed.
2013-11-07 00:00:00 Putting Macro Trends in Context: What do They Mean to a Bottom-Up Investor? by Will Nasgovitz of Heartland Advisors
For some time now, weve had a generally positive economic outlook. The occasional setback is assured, but on the whole we believe that the U.S. economy is still in the early stages of a multi-year recovery.
2013-10-22 00:00:00 The Boys Are Back in Town by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
The boys are indeed back in town as Washington D.C. opened its doors for business as usual last week following a contentious debt ceiling debate and a 16-day shutdown of the government. This outcome had been anticipated in these letters for often-stated reasons, and just like when the fiscal cliff was averted, I now expect the media to turn its focus to the next Armageddon.
2013-07-18 00:00:00 The Death of Disasterism by Steven Vincent of BullBear Trading
From late 2012 I have been gradually layering and developing the thesis that a secular bull market started in November of 2012 (with a possible revised start date of June 2012), ending the sideways secular bear market that started in 2000. Here are the basic components of that thesis through the last report.
2013-06-10 00:00:00 Dad's Rules: Timeless Wisdom From a Fallen Investment Hero by Robert Isbitts of Sungarden Investment Research
Once I publish a blog post, I immediately start thinking of a topic for the next one. At this time last week, I decided to focus todays blog on the concept of trading turnover that is, how long you hold something you bought, until you sell it. It seems that with the stock market on a four-year tear and the bond market threatening to fall apart at any moment, it is a great time for investors to prioritize the most basic investment rule: buy low / sell high.
2013-05-30 00:00:00 US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis by Lara Iriarte of Elliott Wave
Last analysis had two wave counts. They both remain valid. Price has remained below the invalidation point at 100.43.
2013-05-29 00:00:00 What To Sell, If Selling In May by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management
While the Sell In May market anomaly is well-known, theres little recognition of the impact this seasonal anomaly has historically had on stock market leadership. Theres one effect in particular I found so eye-popping that I broke ranks with Rogoff/Reinhart and rechecked my numbers.
2013-03-04 00:00:00 Reminiscences of Marty Zweig: What I Learned From a Market Great by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab
Wall Street loses one of its greats. Remembering Marty's contributions to my career... and investors everywhere. Marty epitomized humility and civilityboth in short order today.
2012-07-24 00:00:00 The Ultimate Death Cross - False Harbinger of Doom by Georg Vrba, P.E. (Article)
Skeptics and devotees of technical analysis took notice last week when Albert Edwards, the closely followed investment strategist at Societe Generale, warned the S&P 500 was 'on the verge of an ultimate death cross,' foretelling imminent major losses for the stock market. Edwards' sense of doom is misguided. An ultimate death cross is mathematically impossible unless the S&P were to suffer an immediate and precipitous decline. Moreover, the signal would provide a positive outlook, if it were to occur.
2012-07-03 00:00:00 Gleanings by Jeffrey Saut, Art Huprich, Scott Brown of Raymond James Equity Research
With this Gleanings report, we begin a monthly chart presentation and discussion, which attempts to pull together the separate disciplines of Economics, Fundamentals, Technical analysis, and Quantitative analysis. The report contains what we think are currently some of the most important charts. We will have an overview and then highlight some of the key near-term variables that we believe could have a measurable effect on where the various markets are going.
2011-12-29 00:00:00 What IPOs and Buybacks are Telling Us Today About Tomorrow! by Kendall J. Anderson of Anderson Griggs
Supply and demand is the basis for technical analysis and for just about every other short-term trading method. The past years volatility of market prices is pretty good evidence on how quickly demand for shares can change. When the call of the day is risk on the market rises. When the call of the day is risk off, the market falls. The rapid change in price also tells us that in the short-term, the supply of shares is fixed. In the long term, the supply of shares will dominate market pricing. Unlike the demand for shares, which can change instantly, supply of shares changes slowly.
2011-05-03 00:00:00 Martin Barnes - How Safe is the Equity Market? by Robert Huebscher (Article)
When members of the Federal Reserve Board seek counsel on tough issues, one of the economists to whom they turn first is Martin Barnes. Speaking publicly last week, Barnes addressed two themes in the US economy and markets: the potential for a sustained bear market in equities and the likelihood of higher taxes. These two distinct questions are both critically important to investors.
2010-06-09 00:00:00 i see levels by tom brakke of the research puzzle
Much of technical analysis involves seeing 'levels' of one kind or another and making decisions in response. For avowed technicians, there are levels everywhere. Sometimes they are clearly and cleanly represented in graphic form, but often these days they are to be found in the midst of a chart with so many lines that it looks like a picture of multi-colored spaghetti noodles. Once electronic delivery of charts became ubiquitous, the technicals crept into the consciousness of fundamentalists too. But what of the levels in general? Do the old rules still apply? Can you rely on them?
2010-05-04 00:00:00 How Much is that Investment Worth in Real Money? by Adam Jared Apt (Article)
In the latest installment of his series of articles geared to the educated layman, Adam Apt looks at the topic of the time value of money, and how discount rates can be used to determine the value of a security. He shows the practical applications of present value calculations and its limitations.
2009-12-15 00:00:00 Investing in Range-bound Markets by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)
Vitaliy Katsenelson, a frequent contributor to these pages, reviews his thesis for secular market cycles, why the US markets remain locked in a range-bound state, and what it will take for them to exit from that state.
2009-07-07 00:00:00 Burton Malkiel Talks the Random Walk by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Passive investing has no more outspoken advocate than Burton Malkiel. At age 72, Malkiel remains every bit as committed to the efficient market hypothesis as when he wrote A Random Walk Down Wall Street in 1973. Malkiel, who has taught finance at Princeton for the last 20 years, was a featured speaker at the Forbes Advisor Conference last week. He insists that investors should buy and hold index funds and defended his position against a series of challenges put to him.
2009-06-30 00:00:00 Letters to the Editor: Moving Average: Holy Grail or Fairy Tale, Part I by Various (Article)
We have two sections of letters to the Editor. The first set features responses to Ted Wong's article, Moving Average: Holy Grail or Fairy Tale - Part 1.
2009-05-19 00:00:00 Waiting for the Fifth Wave by Robert Huebscher (Article)
In response to skepticism we've expressed in the past about technical analysis, one of our readers invited us to attend the Market Technicians Association symposium in New York last week. Our skepticism remains, but it was an enjoyable event and we report on the forecasts of Elliot Wave theorist Robert Prechter.