More on Related Themes
2015-01-06 00:00:00 2015: More Investment and Profits, Higher Rates, Dollar and Stocks by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors
Contrary to popular opinion, business investment is a key factor behind the current recovery. Productive investments have boosted profits to record highs and, in turn, those profits have driven stock prices to record highs. They should continue to do so.
2014-12-29 00:00:00 Adventures in Forecasting by Scott Brown of Raymond James
Every December, economists are asked for their projections for the coming year. Whats GDP growth going to be? How many jobs will be added? Whats the Fed going to do? How will the financial markets react? We build models of the economy models that we know are not precise. There are simply too many variables.
2014-12-21 00:00:00 European QE Draws Attention to Irish Bonds by John Taylor and Dennis Shen of AllianceBernstein
Europes bond markets are starting to focus on the potential impact of ECB sovereign-bond purchases. While we expect QE to prompt a further narrowing of peripheral European sovereign-bond spreads, its important to stay focused on country fundamentals when selecting exposure.
2014-12-16 00:00:00 High Anxiety by Scott Brown of Raymond James
Federal Reserve policymakers meet this week to set monetary policy. The key concern is the timing of policy normalization. Officials may be anxious to begin lifting short-term interest rates, but they need to be very careful about managing market expectations. The risks of tightening too soon or too late are not symmetric and with the financial markets in turmoil, the Fed will not want to add to the level of anxiety.
2014-12-06 00:00:00 Draghi Crosses the Rubicon while Juncker Peddles "Europhemisms" by John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments
The announcement by newly installed European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker of a package designed to secure 315 billion of investment for the eurozone garnered a lot of press interest in late November. However, John Beck, director of Fixed Income, London, and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, believes a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi at a bankers conference in Frankfurt earlier in the month offers more practical insight for investors. Here he outlines lessons to take from Draghis speech in the lions
2014-11-22 00:00:00 A Tale of Two Worlds by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners
We are in a Tale of Two Worlds. One worlds success is highly dependent on the outlook for oil and other commodities, while the others is far less exposed and perhaps even a beneficiary of a more bearish climate. Commodity dependent countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, China and Australia are hurt by falling oil prices, weak global demand and new sources of supply, while the United States, with a far larger consumer driven economy, experiences an overall net benefit, as perhaps seen in earnings from the likes of Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and Lowes in recent days.
2014-11-20 00:00:00 Outlook 2015: European Equities by Rory Bateman of Schroders Investment Management
Monetary policy remains loose in Europe but governments could do more to boost demand. Meanwhile, the weaker euro and stronger banking sector should help support European equities in the coming year.
2014-11-10 00:00:00 Three Reasons Why Commodity-Related Debt May Hold Value Under Pressure by Kathleen Gaffney of Eaton Vance
In this timely Insight, Kathleen Gaffney discusses how a flexible multisector bond strategy can be a great way to gain exposure to, and take advantage of, potential value opportunities in hard-hit commodity related debt.
2014-11-05 00:00:00 QE Worked, But Not As Advertised by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management
Last week the Federal Reserve announced the end of its bond-buying program, which has been running with only brief interruptions for the last six years. Besides its ultimate size and duration, the striking thing about the Feds experiment with quantitative easing (QE) is that there is still not a firm consensus on exactly how it worked. Academic economists will be busy with this question for years. But from a bond investors point of view, theres enough evidence to make a few tentative conclusions.
2014-11-04 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: September 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
International equity prices corrected in September as investors became concerned about slower global growth and the continued withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Stronger than expected U.S. growth could support the global economy in the coming quarters, but has made investors anxious of early interest rate hikes. The Euro-zone economic recovery is faltering yet again as growth has slipped in most large countries.
2014-10-28 00:00:00 Will the Ebola Scare Haunt the Stock Market? by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors
Kristina Hooper prescribes four key takeaways from the Ebola epidemic and what it means for investors.
2014-10-24 00:00:00 5 Things To Ponder: To QE Or Not To QE by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
Over the last few weeks, the markets have seen wild vacillations as stocks plunged and then surged on a massive short-squeeze in the most beaten up sectors of energy and small-mid capitalization companies. While "Ebola" fears filled mainstream headlines the other driver behind the sell-off, and then marked recovery, was a variety of rhetoric surrounding the last vestiges of the current quantitative easing program by the Fed. As I have shown many times in the past, there is a high degree of correlation between the Fed's liquidity programs and the advance in the markets.
2014-10-23 00:00:00 Risk and Uncertainty, Confidence and Fear by Scott Brown of Raymond James
In recent weeks, the financial markets appear to have been reacting less to weaker expectations of global growth and more to the increased downside risks that is, to the fear that things could get a lot worse. The downside risks to Europe are considerable, but America is much less dependent on exports than most other countries and the prospects for moderately strong growth into 2015 remain promising.
2014-10-21 00:00:00 The Skinny on Fatter Tails for Fed Policy by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors
Kristina Hooper comments on escalating fears that a slowdown in global growth could hamstring the US recovery and what that means for monetary-policy outcomes in the United States.
2014-10-07 00:00:00 Most Risk Assets Should Continue to Find Support by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
Equity prices continued to slide in the face of uncertainty over global growth and pending changes to monetary policy. U.S. growth is continuing to improve, and shows further signs of divergence from the rest of the world. Markets may remain sloppy for a while, but fundamentals suggest most risk assets should continue to perform well.
2014-09-30 00:00:00 The Fed Trap by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate
The US Federal Reserve is grappling with the disparity between its unconventional policy's success in preventing economic disaster and its failure to foster a robust recovery. Given that this disconnect has fueled financial-market excesses, the exit will be all the more problematic especially for the market-fixated Fed.
2014-09-30 00:00:00 Economic Atonement by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital
This Friday is Yom Kippur, the day when Jews around the world ask forgiveness for their transgressions from the year past. Rabbis remind the penitent to dwell on their sins of omission, in which they did nothing when a more thoughtful and proactive action was needed, and sins of commission, in which they actively participated in an unjust action. And while not all economists are Jewish, Gene Epstein the economics editor at Barron's, offered his thoughts on how this applies to the group.
2014-09-18 00:00:00 A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital
While many economists and market watchers have failed to notice, we have entered a new chapter in the short and checkered history of central banking. This paradigm shift, as yet unaddressed in the textbooks, changes the basic policy tools that have traditionally defined the sphere of macroeconomic decision-making.
2014-09-10 00:00:00 Scottish Independence Vote: Investor Implications by Axel Merk of Merk Investments
Is your portfolios fate dependent on Scotlands? Why is it that when a place known for haggis, kilts and bagpipes indicates it might want to be independent, the markets pay attention?
2014-09-04 00:00:00 Global: Recovery Continues, but Headwinds Persist by Keith Wade of Schroders Investment Management
Keith Wade, Chief Economist at Schroders, discusses why Schroders has trimmed global growth projections for 2014 and 2015.
2014-08-29 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
Flexible labor markets are key to recovering from recession; Wage trends present a challenge for the Fed; Bank settlements are sizeable, but the benefit to housing has been limited
2014-08-27 00:00:00 The Price is Right - The S&P 500 Index Deconstructed by Edward Talisse of Chelsea Global Advisors
Is the widely followed S&P 500 equity index wildly overvalued at its current price of 2,000? Well, that depends upon your assumptions about earnings and dividend growth and your risk adjusted required rate of return.
2014-08-23 00:00:00 Quarterly Letter by Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Company
Sometimes, Im tempted to write same as last time. This is one of those times.
2014-07-11 00:00:00 Why The Fed Needs You To Sell Your Bonds by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Today I will attempt to explain why longer-term interest rates have fallen significantly this year when almost everyone expected rates to rise. This discussion focuses on the fact that there is a shortage of Treasury securities in the marketplace today, especially in maturities of 10 years or longer. The shortage is due to a combination of factors that I will discuss below
2014-06-14 00:00:00 ECB Leaves the Door Open for Further Action by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments
he European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a robust package of monetary policy measures on June 5 and promised more to come if needed to help stave off deflation and support the eurozones fragile economic recovery. Among the moves announced were interest rate cuts, including a negative interest rate on excess deposits that banks hold with the ECB, and new facilities to support bank lending to small businesses. We asked David Zahn, portfolio manager for the Franklin Global Government Bond Fund, for his thoughts on what these latest measures could mean for investors.
2014-06-14 00:00:00 Whos Afraid of Low, Low Rates? by James T. Tierney, Jr. of AllianceBernstein
Falling yields on Treasuries are often seen as a signal of a weakening economy that could undermine stocks. We think there are other explanations that dont threaten the outlook for equities.
2014-06-13 00:00:00 ECB Leaves the Door Open for Further Action by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments
The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a robust package of monetary policy measures on June 5 and promised more to come if needed to help stave off deflation and support the eurozones fragile economic recovery. Among the moves announced were interest rate cuts, including a negative interest rate on excess deposits that banks hold with the ECB, and new facilities to support bank lending to small businesses. We asked David Zahn, portfolio manager for the Franklin Global Government Bond Fund, for his thoughts on what these latest measures could mean for investors.
2014-05-29 00:00:00 China Sets America’s Mental Trap by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate
It is often said that a crisis should never be wasted: Politicians, policymakers, and regulators should embrace the moment of deep distress and take on the heavy burden of structural repair. China seems to be doing that; America is not.
2014-04-28 00:00:00 Equities Awaiting Stronger Growth Before Next Move by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
U.S. equities finished modestly lower last week with the S&P 500 nearly unchanged. Most of the damage occurred on Friday when escalating tensions surrounding Ukraine weighed on sentiment. Positive dynamics included an improvement in first quarter earnings metrics, a notable pickup in M&A activity and deal speculation. A broader macro narrative reflects better traction for the recovery and gradual policy normalization. With momentum plays under renewed scrutiny, several internet, software and biotech companies sold off despite an expected cushion from solid first quarter results.
2014-04-24 00:00:00 Quarterly Letter by Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Company
Most of the economic and market trends we've been discussing for the past few years remain in place. Russia's action in the Ukraine/Crimea may have long-term implications, particularly for Europe, but the near-term economic implications are modest. It remains to be seen whether this gets added to our long-term worry list or not.
2014-04-22 00:00:00 Unloved Emerging Markets May Hold Value for Opportunistic Bond Investors by Kathleen Gaffney of Eaton Vance
· Emerging markets have come under pressure over the past year due to the Federal Reserve tapering its asset purchases and increased expectations of higher interest rates in the U.S. · We think investors should consider emerging markets to find opportunities that may provide a yield advantage and diversification away from U.S. interest-rate risk. · A multisector approach that uses bottom-up, fundamental credit analysis may be helpful in finding opportunities in emerging markets.
2014-04-14 00:00:00 Economic Insight: Fed Policy Goes Back to the Future by Thomas Luster of Eaton Vance
We fully expected the strength the economy showed in late 2013 to carry over into 2014; however, that simply was not the case. Instead, we saw weaker-than-expected economic data across a wide range of economic indicators. Not surprisingly, interest rates fell modestly during the quarter rather than continuing their trend higher from last year, while U.S. stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) reacted similarly ? barely advancing after a 32% gain in 2013.
2014-04-11 00:00:00 Quarterly Letter by Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Co.
Most of the economic and market trends we?ve been discussing for the past few years remain in place. Russia?s action in the Ukraine / Crimea may have long-term implications, particularly for Europe, but the near-term economic implications are modest. It remains to be seen whether this gets added to our long-term worry list or not.
2014-04-05 00:00:00 The Lions in the Grass, Revisited by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
Today we explore a few things we can see and then try to foresee a few things that are not quite so obvious. The simple premise is that it is not the lions we can see lounging in plain view that are the most insidious threat, but rather that in trying to avoid those we may stumble upon lions hidden in the grass.
2014-03-28 00:00:00 What Investors Should Know About Fed Forward Guidance by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management
Last week, at Janet Yellen?s first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC revised its forward guidance for the funds rate, dropping its reference to 6.5% unemployment and instead stressing the committee?s qualitative assessment of the economy. The change was a symbolically important step, but did not alter the broader outlook for policy rates, in our view.
2014-02-28 00:00:00 Bounce Back by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab
US stocks have bounced and the markets still attractive and in the midst of a secular bull market. But there are likely to be bumps along the way; notably given that this is a midterm election year; which are known for first-half pullbacks. A diversified portfolio is important and both European and Chinese stocks appear to have upside, while Japan continues to frustrate with a two-steps forward, two-steps back sort of approach. And a final reminder not to replace fixed income assets with equities in search of higher income without recognizing the risk profile of a portfolio has changed.
2014-02-20 00:00:00 The Fed: Yellen's Tapering Tightrope by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett
In reducing quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve chairwoman faces a big challenge: preventing asset bubbles at home without pressuring developing economies.
2014-02-10 00:00:00 Two Reasons for Value to Outperform in 2014 by Will Nasgovitz of Heartland Advisors
Weve seen the longest period of growth outperformance since 1932, but the two catalysts could cause value to return to favor. First, tapering by the Fed should allow interest rates to normalize and thereby benefit the Financials sector. Second, theres potential for a correction in the Consumer Discretionary sector, which appears overvalued: The groups P/E is above the historical average and performance has tracked upward despite flat earnings revisions.
2014-02-05 00:00:00 2014 Market Outlook by Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh
Some Bumps along the Road of Global Recovery
2014-02-05 00:00:00 The Fed's Forced Feeding Will End Badly by Dawn Bennett of Bennett Group Financial Services
This financial market reminds me of when we were kids sitting at the dinner table and the one thing almost all of us heard back in the 1970s was "that plate better be clean by the time I get back or else." This left us with images of torture that would follow the "or else."
2014-02-03 00:00:00 Pushing Luck by John Hussman of Hussman Funds
Speculators have been luckier than they may realize, and are now pushing their luck. Quantitative easing has distorted not only financial markets, but financial memory. The awakening is not likely to be gentle.
2014-02-01 00:00:00 Central Banker Throwdown by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
The Federal Reserve is signaling that it is going to end quantitative easing at some point in the future; therefore, investors are trying to find the exits before the end actually comes.
2014-01-31 00:00:00 High Yield: The Perfect Storm That Wasn't by Gershon Distenfeld of Alliance Bernstein
Investors should not focus on how rising rates may affect high yield. Instead, they should take a more thoughtful approach. This means they should not expect double-digit returns, nor should they reach for yield by buying triple-C bonds. At this point in the credit cycle, when concerns begin to develop disproportionally in lower-rated credits, investors are not getting compensated for taking this type of risk. Instead, investors should accept that single-digit returns are a realistic expectation in 2014. And in a relatively low-rate environment, we dont think thats a bad thing.
2014-01-16 00:00:00 A Flight to Quality by Ben Fischer of Allianz Global Investors
CIO NFJ Ben Fischer delivers his 2014 outlook, focusing on the Feds tapering of its bond-buying program and how high-quality, dividend-paying stocks should respond.
2014-01-16 00:00:00 Let the taper begin! Fixed Income Investment Outlook by Team of Osterweis Capital Management
At the December meeting, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) decided to reduce its purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities (a.k.a. quantitative easing/QE) beginning in January 2014. This answered the question of when the taper would begin, and the markets reacted predictably. Two questions remain, however: How long until the Fed completely winds down QE; and when will short rates begin to reflect the improving economy? We feel it may be sooner on the former and could be quite some time on the latter.
2014-01-10 00:00:00 Yellen's Inheritance: Monetary Policy in Flux by Joseph Carson, Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein
Evolving economic challenges are transforming central banking around the world. The new monetary-policy doctrine is likely to put greater emphasis on asset-price developments. But, without a true monetary anchor, central banks could still risk a repeat of the recent boom/bust cycle.
2014-01-08 00:00:00 Rehab World by Niall Ferguson of Project Syndicate
The late English chanteuse Amy Winehouse sang, "They tried to make me go to rehab, but I said No, no, no." Perhaps 2013 should be known as the year of Winehouse economics, with the singers being the worlds most important central banks, led by the Federal Reserve.
2014-01-06 00:00:00 2014 Housing Predictions by Logan Mohtasham of AMC Lending Group
A tale of 2 halves with lingering questions characterizes what we can say was the story for housing for 2013. In the first half of the year, rates were low as the 10 year note was well under 2%. People were still refinancing, as home prices rocketed. Multiple bids were common, and pundits like Ivy Zelman cheered the improving market with praise like "Housing is in Nirvana".
2014-01-02 00:00:00 The World Economy's Shifting Challenges by George Soros of Project Syndicate
As 2013 comes to a close, efforts to revive growth in the worlds most influential economies are exerting competing pressures on the global economy. Perhaps not surprisingly, while Europe and the US will continue to play an important global role, developments in Asia will determine the worldwide outlook in 2014 and beyond.
2013-12-24 00:00:00 Fed Taper Brings Us Back to the Future by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors
A return to normal economic conditions is now more palpable following the Feds decision to start unwinding QE and early signs of a revival in consumer spending, growth and jobs, writes Kristina Hooper.
2013-12-23 00:00:00 Risk Assets Take Fed Taper Announcement in Stride by Roger Bayston of Franklin Templeton
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an early holiday surprise to some market participants, announcing at its December 18 policy meeting it would start slowing its asset purchase program known as quantitative easing in January. For some thoughts on what this may mean for the markets in the new year, we turned just after the announcement to Roger Bayston. He believes the markets should be able to take the Feds tapering in 2014 in stride, although investors should prepare for the proposition of higher Treasury yields.
2013-12-21 00:00:00 Start Me Up: Fed Announces a Much-Anticipated Taper by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab
The Fed decided to begin tapering its QE-related bond purchases with a reduction of $10 billion; split evenly between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. In a sign that tapering was already priced in, the stock market surged on the announcement; while bond yields remained quite tame. The Fed announced slightly sunnier economic forecasts, suggesting quantitative easing could wind down within a year.
2013-12-19 00:00:00 A Dovish-Bullish Taper by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors
They finally did it. At Chairman Bernankes next to last meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a modest tapering of quantitative easing, reducing its monthly purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each ($10 billion total) to $75 billion starting in January. As a result, the size of the Feds balance sheet will continue to rise, but slightly more slowly than before.
2013-12-19 00:00:00 Is Your Inflation Protection Really Protecting You? by Thomas Luster, Stewart Taylor, Kevin Dachille of Eaton Vance
Many investors who own Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS) and TIPS mutual funds don’t realize that they may be taking a significant amount of interest-rate risk in exchange for their inflation protection, which may result in losses when rates begin to rise rapidly. Shorter-maturity TIPS carry the same inflation adjustment as longer-term TIPS, but have less sensitivity to interest rates, which may be helpful in times of rising interest rates like what investors experienced in spring 2013.
2013-12-18 00:00:00 Beware the Haunting of Stock Market Corrections Past! by Dawn Bennett of Bennett Group Financial Services
I do think the ghosts of stock market corrections past are haunting us. Those who forget the lessons that history teaches us are predestined to repeat them. As an apprentice of U.S. stock market history, Ive seen this maxim made true, time and time again. I believe I have seen the ghosts of the 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2008 U.S. Stock market crashes because they have materialized in 2013 and are appearing in front of everyone.
2013-12-17 00:00:00 5 Takeaways from the Mini-Budget Deal by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors
The bi-partisan budget agreement inked last week has real implications for investors, including its impact on consumers, the stock market and the Fed, writes Kristina Hooper.
2013-12-07 00:00:00 Interview with Steve Forbes by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
For whatever reason, Steve Forbes seems to bring out the passion in me. When I think about what central bank policies are doing to savers and investors, how we are screwing around with the pension system, circumventing rational market expectations because of an untested economic theory held by a relatively small number of academics, I get a little exercised. And Steve gives me the freedom to do it.
2013-12-06 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust
The U.S. employment report puts taper onto the table. Dont expect further rate cuts from the ECB or the Fed. Auto sales have been a bright spot amid sluggish consumer spending.
2013-11-26 00:00:00 QE: Not That Big of a Deal by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors
The most frequent question we get lately is "what happens to long-term interest rates when quantitative easing ends?" Many analysts argue that the Federal Reserve is buying and holding a huge share of Treasury debt and once QE ends other buyers will suddenly have to absorb more. This will cause interest rates to soar, bust the housing market, undermine stocks, and possibly cause a recession.
2013-11-22 00:00:00 What is the Current Market Reality? by Giordano Lombardo of Pioneer Investments
At this years Global Investment Forum, the discussion among Pioneer investment professionals was generally positive. Of course, everyone was conscious of the current market reality: that the major force behind recent positive, though benign, market trends is the unprecedented creation of liquidity and extremely loose stance of monetary policies around the world. Monetary policy alone cannot be the only conduit to a new economic model of income growth and job creation.
2013-11-12 00:00:00 Markets Vacillate Between Stronger Economy and Fed Accommodation by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
U.S. equities finished mostly higher last week as the S&P 500 increased 0.6%, ending higher for the fifth straight week. The return of central bank action was a primary concern. The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised investors with a 0.25% rate cut, while the debate over the Federal Reserves impending tapering decision continued in earnest.
2013-11-12 00:00:00 Taper Talk by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors
Taperingplease bring it on. We wanted it yesterday, or last month, or even years ago. We never thought QE helped the economy and certainly dont think keeping it around is a good idea. Its created uncertainty at an unprecedented level.
2013-10-31 00:00:00 A Bit More Hawkish, All Things Considered by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors
Todays statement from the Federal Reserve was almost a carbon copy of the last one in September. No changes to the pace of quantitative easing or interest rates, which is exactly as the consensus expected. The Fed made only minor changes to the text of the statement, making it slightly more hawkish in one spot and slightly more dovish in another.
2013-10-29 00:00:00 Is This the New Normal'? by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments
Markets Settle into a New Normal All sorts of economic data were released last week, but volatility has dropped: rightly or wrongly, market forecasts about the pace of quantitative easing (QE) and earnings growth in the U.S. appear to have coalesced around an outlook for slow growth with ongoing QE.
2013-10-26 00:00:00 A Code Red World by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
The heart of this week’s letter is the introduction of my just-released new book, Code Red. It is my own take (along with co-author Jonathan Tepper) on the problems that have grown out of an unrelenting assault on monetary norms by central banks around the world.
2013-10-26 00:00:00 Why U.S. Dollar Will Remain World's Reserve Currency, Despite Political Brinkmanship by Tatjana Michel of Charles Schwab
The U.S. dollar is not likely to lose its premier world reserve-currency status anytime soon. But continuing U.S. political brinkmanship could drive foreign countries into other currencies faster. With the market focus shifting to monetary policy and growth, we expect a Fed taper delay to give foreign currencies some time to recover.
2013-10-23 00:00:00 Investment Bulletin: Global Equity Strategy by Team of Bedlam Asset Management
The portfolio enjoyed another index-beating month with a gain of 0.9% versus 0.6%, so improving further the long term numbers. As noted in previous Bulletins, correlations between growth and equity market returns are low. Investors remain fixated otherwise, but some confusion is reasonable given that growth in earnings per share is also slowing. Yet strong equity markets can be justified by the Free Lunch Theory.
2013-10-22 00:00:00 Washington Strikes a No-Surprise Deal - Now What? by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments
Congress called a time-out in the budget/debt fight last week, striking a deal to avoid default and fund the U.S. government through January 15, 2014 and raise the debt limit through February 7, 2014. While the parties agreed to budget talks, they did not commit to reaching an agreement (technically, Paul Ryan and Patty Murray, the House and Senate budget committee chairs will begin a process of fiscal negotiations, due to wrap up by mid-December).
2013-10-21 00:00:00 Closed-End Fund Review by Jeff Margolin of First Trust Advisors
The third quarter was a challenging one for many categories of the closed-end fund marketplace.
2013-10-17 00:00:00 Politics Secondary to US Equity Fundamentals by Grant Bowers of Franklin Templeton
Its easy to get caught up in the tense drama surrounding the government shutdown and the debt ceiling squabble between Congressional Republicans and Democrats, but Grant Bowers, portfolio manager of Franklin Growth Opportunities Fund, maintains that looking beyond the political posturing and focusing instead on US corporate fundamentals is his preferred approach. Read on for more from Bowers on how he views the issues at hand, and why, even in the face of another political showdown in the Capitol, he thinks the US still presents a strong investment case.
2013-10-12 00:00:00 Sometimes They Ring a Bell by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
Three items have come across my screen in the past month that, taken together, truly do signal a major turning point in how energy is discovered, transported, and transformed. And while we’ll start with a story that most of us are somewhat aware of, there is an even larger transformation happening that I think argues against the negative research that has come out in the last few years about the reduced potential for growth in the world economy.
2013-10-10 00:00:00 Can You Hear Me Now? by Marie Schofield of Columbia Management
Under normal circumstances, I provide insight and analysis on the monthly jobs report at the beginning of each month. This month Washington politics has interrupted my routine with the partial government shutdown postponing several important data releases this week and pessimistically next week as well. Not only that but several agencies have completely shut down their websites denying access to already released data and historical databases, which is completely unnecessary.
2013-10-08 00:00:00 New Fed Alarm Over Shadow Banking by Miguel Perez-Santalla of BullionVault
It comes to something when every story you read in the papers makes you ask: Whats the agenda? says Miguel Perez-Santalla at BullionVault.
2013-10-04 00:00:00 Are Investors Paying More Attention to Quality Small-Caps? by Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds
Although it covers only a brief time period, recent research by Furey Research Partners showed that since the beginning of May 2013 through September 30 the lowest leveraged companies outperformed the highest leveraged companies within the Russell 2000to us a long-anticipated reversal and an encouraging signal that suggests investors have not abandoned quality despite an environment of easy money and near-zero interest rates.
2013-10-04 00:00:00 The Fed and Its Big Thumb by Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Co.
Weve seen what happens when prices get ahead of the economy reality. The bubbles in the dot-coms in 2000 and the housing market in 2007 were such effects. We fear that the apparent Fed desire to continue to manipulate interest rates may engender more bubbles.
2013-09-28 00:00:00 The Renminbi: Soon to Be a Reserve Currency? by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
Contrary to the thinking of fretful dollar skeptics, my firm belief is that the US dollar is going to become even stronger and will at some point actually deserve to be the reserve currency of choice rather than merely the prettiest girl in the ugly contest the last currency standing, so to speak. But whether the Chinese RMB will become a reserve currency is an entirely different question.
2013-09-27 00:00:00 Read My Lips... by Dimitri Balatsos of Tesseract Partners
Chairman Ben Bernankes press conference this week, commenting on the decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not to taper, reminded us of the famous slogan of Presidential hopeful George H.W. Bush at the 1988 Republican National Convention Read my lips: no new taxes. Yet, after he won the election, he raised taxes in an effort to reduce the public deficit.
2013-09-25 00:00:00 Muni Market Resurgent by Andrew Clinton of Clinton Investment Management
In light of the recent recovery in fixed income markets and the outperformance of the municipal bond market in particular, I thought I would send a note to provide a brief update since we last sent our market observations in July and August. As you may recall, we stated in the clearest terms that we felt the recent rise in interest rates provided an attractive entry point for municipal bond investors.
2013-09-16 00:00:00 FOMC Preview: Taper Likely To Be Deferred or Minimal by Team of Northern Trust
Market participants have been working overtime to refine their expectations of what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might do at its meeting next week. Many are calling for a cut in the Feds pace of asset purchases from the current level of $85 billion per month.
2013-09-09 00:00:00 The Shape of Things to Come by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors
With a week to go before the September FOMC meeting, theres little that stands in the way of Fed tapering. Fridays jobs report didnt impress but it probably wasnt bad enough to stop central bankers from pulling some punch, writes Kristina Hooper.
2013-09-06 00:00:00 Markets Focused on the Wrong Target by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital
In recent months economic commentators and financial markets have focused almost excessively on the Federal Reserves quantitative easing ("QE") policy as the markets main driver. However, last month two senior economists at the Federal Reserve published a report entitled How Stimulating Are Large-Scale Asset Purchases which calls this devotion into question.
2013-08-31 00:00:00 How Do I Hate Thee? by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
I will list a number of reasons why I hate this market and then suggest a few reasons why that should get you excited. We will look at some charts, and I’ll briefly comment on them. No deep dives this week, just a survey of the general landscape.
2013-08-20 00:00:00 The Speed of Fed Rate Hikes by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management
For the last several months, talk of tapering has dominated the Fed debate. Although there remains some uncertainty around the detailssuch as how large the initial step might bemost observers now expect the Federal Reserve to begin slowing the pace of quantitative easing (QE) at the September 17-18 meeting. Attention is now turning to another major issue on next months agenda: the publication of Fed officials forecasts for the funds rate in 2016. The Fed rolls forward the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) by one year each September.
2013-08-19 00:00:00 A Bear Market Is Here: In Bonds! by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors
While it certainly hasnt made the headlines that it should have, the bond market has been kicked in the teeth. After bottoming at 1.61% on May 1, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note hit 2.84% on Friday, its highest level in two years the worst bear market move in bonds since the end of the 2008-09 financial panic.
2013-08-12 00:00:00 Quantitative Easing: Is it Working? by Mark Ungewitter of Charter Trust Company
In September 2012, the FOMC announced a third round of quantitative easing intended to reduce long-term interest rates. Since then, the New York Fed has purchased about $700 billion of mortgage-backed securities. But a funny thing happened on the way to lower interest rates. During the QE3 period, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by a full percentage point. The targeted 30-year mortgage rate has also risen by about 100bps.
2013-08-12 00:00:00 Understanding Quality: The Crux of Long-Term Investing by Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds
While some experts believe that small-cap valuations are currently stretched, we see ample opportunities in what we think are high-quality smaller companies.
2013-08-10 00:00:00 We Can't Take the Chance by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
What would it have been like to be a central banker in the midst of the crisis in 2008-09? You’d know that you won’t have the luxury of going back and making better decisions five years later. Instead, you have to act on the torrent of information that’s coming at you, and none of it is good. Major banks are literally collapsing, the interbank market is nonexistent and there is panic in the air. Perhaps you feel that panic in the pit of your stomach. This week we’ll perform a little thought experiment to see if we can extrapolate what is likely to happen in when the nex
2013-08-07 00:00:00 Who has the Edge in Race to Head the Fed? by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management
One of the most common mistakes policy analysts make is what I like to call normative biasallowing personal opinions to affect perceived odds of certain outcomes. Saying The Fed is unlikely to introduce quantitative easing because it would lead to high inflation is an example of normative bias. Fed officials do not think quantitative easing (QE) leads to high inflation, and whether you think it does has no bearing on the probability. Personal perceptions are irrelevant for policy analysisthe only things that matter are the perceptions of the decision maker.
2013-08-01 00:00:00 July 2013 Market Commentary by Andrew Clinton of Clinton Investment Management
Fixed income investors have enjoyed a steady move higher in bond prices over the past five years. Given the consistency with which bond values have increased, it is understandable if bond investors were surprised by the just over 0.60%, or 60 basis point rise in ten year Treasury yields and corresponding movement down in bond prices during the second quarter.
2013-07-27 00:00:00 A Lost Generation by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we will briefly look at why weak consumer spending is going to become an even greater problem in the coming years, and we will continue to look at some disturbing trends in employment.
2013-07-24 00:00:00 Earnings Acceleration Likely Needed for Next Upturn in Stocks by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
U.S. equities finished mostly higher last week. For a fourth straight week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials were up (returning 0.73% and 0.57% respectively for the week), while the NASDAQ underperformed at -0.34%. It was a busy start for second quarter earnings. More than 70% of the 100 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings have beaten consensus earnings per share expectations by approximately 3% in aggregate.
2013-07-22 00:00:00 What the *&%! Just Happened? by Ben Inker of GMO
In a new quarterly letter to GMOs institutional clients, head of asset allocation Ben Inker highlights the period from May 22 to June 24 characterized by "the universality of the declines" across asset classes.
2013-07-19 00:00:00 Fixed Income Fed Insight: It's All About Employment by Christopher Molumphy of Franklin Templeton Investments
We can try to guess what the Fed is thinking, but ultimately the Fed is driven by inflation and the labor markets. With inflation seemingly under control, its really the labor markets that dominate. So if you want to know what the Feds going to be doing, look at the labor markets how many jobs we create each month and, most importantly, the unemployment rate.
2013-07-18 00:00:00 What's Next for the U.S. Dollar? by Nic Pifer of Columbia Management
Global government bonds have performed poorly so far this year. Year to date through July 13, the Barclays Global Treasury Index, which covers 30 investment grade domestic government bond markets, is down 5.5% in unhedged U.S. dollar terms. The same index hedged back to U.S. dollars is down 0.6% year to date. This difference in returns highlights a key point.
2013-07-17 00:00:00 China's Curbs on Bank Lending: Implications for the World Economy? by Giordano Lombardo of Pioneer Investments
Banks are by far the top-weighted sector group in China, so theres little chance for the broad market to buck the trend. Indeed the problem is sector-specific at first glance. Policy makers want to curb excess bank lending in an effort to make the industry better managed and more selective.
2013-07-15 00:00:00 Mid-Year Outlook: Waiting to Move Beyond a Muddle-Through Economy by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
By focusing on current economic conditions while giving due importance to the uncertainty created by Fed actions we offer thoughts for consideration in evaluating risk-on investments.
2013-07-12 00:00:00 Weekly Market Review-Highlights of the Prior week by AdvisorShares Research of AdvisorShares
Stocks moved higher but volume was notably low over the holiday shortened trading week. This week for a change, positive economic data, not speculation about the Federal Reserves tapering of Quantitative Easing drove the market in the US.
2013-07-05 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
The odds of a September tapering have increased but are conditional on labor market conditions continuing to evolve at least as favorably as viewed at the present time. The important caveat is that the Feds forward guidance has stressed the importance of improvements in the outlook of the labor market and inflation to consider tapering, which implies that economic data between now and the September FOMC meeting will play an important role in the timing of tapering of asset purchases.
2013-07-03 00:00:00 The Fed's Prisoner Dilemma: Interest Rates Too Low for Too Long by Mike Temple of Pioneer Investments
The Prisoner Dilemma is based on the example of two prisoners who are told that if one testifies against the other, the one who testified will go free, but if both testify against the other, both will be jailed a conundrum about courses of action that dont result in the ideal outcome. We believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) will try to manage expectations so that the Treasury yield curve does not adjust too violently.
2013-07-03 00:00:00 Why a Normalized Yield Environment Marks the Return of Capitalism by Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds
While market sentiment over the past few years has shifted between confidence and fear, the quality companies that we covetand never abandonedhave been relatively ignored. Portfolio Manager Francis Gannon suspects that, although a shift back to a more normalized environment will mean continued volatility, the landscape will be more favorable for active managers.
2013-07-02 00:00:00 A Mid-Year Ten Predictions Assessment by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
As we reach the halfway point in the year, we want to track our progress against the predictions made in January. Equities had a strong six-month period, although a correction occurred in May and June, primarily due to a very difficult bond market. Perhaps the great rotation started late in the second quarter as investors moved from bonds and bond-like equities, with measured progress for cyclical and growth equities. Anxiety remains over the Fed ending its quantitative easing experiment, and there are also financial issues in China that are cause for concern.
2013-06-27 00:00:00 AdvisorShares Weekly Market Review by Team of AdvisorShares
Once again, US stock indexes declined last week based on investors fears of rising interest rates. While markets were rising at the beginning of the week, on Wednesday, Federal Open Market Committee Chairman Ben Bernanke said that if the economy continued on its current growth path, the Fed would scale back on asset purchases by the end of the year and attempt to end the extraordinary measures by the middle of 2014.
2013-06-27 00:00:00 Breaking Bad Habits by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate
At last, central banks in the US and China seem to be headed toward monetary-policy normalization. While the move will be painful for liquidity-addicted investors, nothing less can ensure that current excesses in asset and credit markets do not spawn new and dangerous distortions in the global economy.
2013-06-25 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn
All markets came under pressure last week (and this morning) over the dual concerns of a slowing global economy coupled with the Federal Reserves suggestion that things are improving and thus tapering might start by the end of the year.
2013-06-21 00:00:00 Outlook for the Global Bond Market by Nic Pifer of Columbia Management
The global economy continues to expand, but seems stuck on a moderate, below-trend trajectory. Lately, the story seems to be more about a growth rotation across regions than a clear-cut acceleration or deceleration at the global level. Looking to 2014, however, we still expect the global economy to accelerate to a more trend-like pace.
2013-06-21 00:00:00 Un-Addiction by Jeremy Boynton of Laureate Wealth Management
It appears that the Un-Addiction process has begun. This marks a significant shift for the world of investments. Volatility is on the rise. Interest rates are rising / normalizing. In such a fragile economy, it seems prudent to consider that the risks of economic recession are somewhat higher, even if they are still not the base case. As always, please feel free to contact me with any thoughts or questions.
2013-06-20 00:00:00 Fed Slightly More Optimistic by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors
The Federal Reserve made only slight changes to the text of its statement, but those it did make signal slightly more optimism. It said labor market conditions show further improvement, rather than some improvement and sees diminished downside risks for the broader economy.
2013-06-15 00:00:00 Economists Are (Still) Clueless by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
The economic forecasts of mainstream economists are quite positive, if not enirely optimistic, reflecting the current data. Should we not take heart from that? Alas, no. This week we look at some of our recent musings on that topic, triggered by a letter from a very serious economist who took umbrage when I wrote disparagingly about economists and forecasting a couple months ago.
2013-06-11 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn
The last few weeks have seen volatility emerge as concerns about the Feds policy of quantitative easing and the timing of changing it have taken center stage.
2013-06-08 00:00:00 Banzai! Banzai! Banzai! by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
In practice it may be harder for Japan to grow and generate inflation than it might be for other major nations. Today we’ll focus on Japanese demographics. While the letter is full of graphs and charts, it does not paint a pretty picture. The forces of deflation will not go gently into that good night.
2013-06-04 00:00:00 Equities Hit Pause by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
Stocks and other risk assets struggled last week, with the S&P 500 declining 1.11%.1 Equities finished lower on Friday, the final trading session of May. The decline trimmed Mays gains and sealed the second consecutive weekly decline for U.S. equities. The S&P increased 2.34% for the month and has gained 4.31% this quarter and 15.37% for the year.1
2013-06-03 00:00:00 Is QE Really THAT Important? by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors
The punditry has decided that anything good happening is actually bad. It is all just a sugar high based on Quantitative Easing and government stimulus and that talk of winding down or tapering QE is negative. So the latest fear is that any good data on growth is actually bad, because it means the Fed will wind down QE. They say the economy cant possibly grow on its own without support from the Fed and Ben Bernanke.
2013-06-01 00:00:00 After the Gold Rush by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate
The run-up in gold prices in recent years from $800 per ounce in early 2009 to above $1,900 in the fall of 2011 had all the features of a bubble. And now, like all asset-price surges that are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the gold bubble is deflating.
2013-06-01 00:00:00 Central Bankers Gone Wild by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
For the last two weeks we have focused on the problems facing Japan, and such is the importance of Japan to the world economy that this week we will once again turn to the Land of the Rising Sun. I will try to summarize the situation facing the Japanese. This is critical to understand, because they are determined to share their problems with the world, and we will have no choice but to deal with them. Japan is going to affect your economy and your investments, no matter where you live; Japan is that important.
2013-05-31 00:00:00 Japan and the Euphoric Volatility Trap by Ashwin Alankar, Michael DePalma, Arnab Nilim of AllianceBernstein
When equity markets are buoyant and optimism abounds, fears of volatility tend to subside. But recent events in Japan remind us that euphoria itself can generate turbulence.
2013-05-29 00:00:00 Outlook on the Japanese Equity Market by Team of Nomura Asset Management
The Nikkei Stock Average closed 128 points higher, or 0.9%, to close the week at 14,612 following the dramatic 7.3% sell-off on Thursday, May 23, 2013. The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) also added 6 points, or 0.5%, to 1,194, following a 6.9% sell-off on Thursday, May 23rd.
2013-05-28 00:00:00 Taking Stock by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
U.S. and global equities were under pressure last week, with all major U.S. indices lower for only the fourth time this year. With discussion of the Fed tapering its stimulus, market uncertainty gained momentum. The S&P 500 was down 1.0% for the week.1 We consider the market pullback technical in nature since the mention of a Fed quantitative easing exit likely created a natural point to take profits after the recent rally.
2013-05-25 00:00:00 The Mother of All Painted-In Corners by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
Japan has painted itself into the mother all corners. There will be no clean or easy exit. There is going to be massive economic pain as they the Japanese try and find a way out of their problems, and sadly, the pain will not be confined to Japan. This will be the true test of the theories of neo-Keynesianism writ large. Japan is going to print and monetize and spend more than almost any observer can currently imagine. You like what Paul Krugman prescribes? You think he makes sense? You (we all!) are going to be participants in a real-world experiment on how that works out.
2013-05-06 00:00:00 The Economy: Why Interest Rates Shouldn't Rise Anytime Soon by Ron Sloan of Invesco
Real is irrelevant. The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) is unconcerned about real GDP the inflation-adjusted measurement of US economic growth. Rather, without inflation in our economy, the Fed is focused on raising nominal GDP. And that priority means that interest rates should stay low for the foreseeable future.
2013-05-02 00:00:00 Fed Doesn't Budge by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors
It would be hard to find a policy statement from the Federal Reserve with as few changes as the one issued today. The Fed made no changes to monetary policy and only minor changes to the language of its statement. Even the lone dissent, from Kansas City Fed Bank President Esther George, was a carbon copy from the last statement in March.
2013-04-30 00:00:00 The U.S. Economy A Gain in GDP? by Marie Schofield of Columbia Management
The advance estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis last Friday showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.5% in the first quarter, below expectations of an increase of 3.0%. Despite the decent first quarter advance, year-over-year gains in nominal and real GDP are largely unchanged from the prior quarter at 3.4% and 1.8%, respectively. While growth rates at this slow pace in these measures have typically heralded recessions, they appear stable but also underscore a critical problemthe failure to generate escape velocity.
2013-04-29 00:00:00 The Trapdoors at the Fed's Exit by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate
It may be too soon to say that many risky assets have reached bubble levels, and that leverage and risk-taking in financial markets is becoming excessive. But the reality is that credit and asset/equity bubbles are likely to form in the next two years, owing to loose US monetary policy.
2013-04-19 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview - March 2013 by Team of Thomas White International
Global economic trends turned softer during the month of March as indicators from Europe showed further declines and U.S. consumer sentiment moderated on labor market uncertainties, government spending cuts, and tax increases. Continuing weakness in European demand has somewhat dulled the export outlook for emerging economies, while government policies to prevent excessive asset price inflation have led to concerns about domestic consumption growth in these countries.
2013-04-15 00:00:00 Housing Is it Getting Better, A Second Look by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis
This week we take a quick look at some of what is in the Presidents budget and then focus on the housing market (the title harkens back to something we wrote a few months back). You may sense, as you read on, Im a bit cranky this week. As you read through the housing section youll understand why.
2013-04-10 00:00:00 Surprising Surge!! by Jim Tillar, Steve Wenstrup of Tillar-Wenstrup
Momentum from 2012s surprisingly strong performance continued into the first quarter of 2013 with stocks rising sharply. Our portfolios did well but lagged behind our benchmarks in the quarter. Taking a little longer view, over the trailing 12 and 36 months we mostly matched the double-digit gains of our benchmarks, which we are very pleased with since we usually underperform during strong market advances. So far this year small- & mid-capitalization, value, and domestic stocks were the market leaders, while international, growth, commodity stocks and Apple were laggards.
2013-03-22 00:00:00 ING Fixed Income Perspectives March 2013 by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms, Mike Mata of ING Investment Management
Developed sovereigns are still broadly unattractive, but global central banks appear poised to ease. We prefer EM currencies that will continue to benefit from positive global growth and tolerate further upward pressure on the U.S.
2013-03-20 00:00:00 Spending Patterns Paint Half Truth by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital
On March 13th, the Commerce Department announced a 1.1 percent increase in food and services retail sales, doubling a prior Dow Jones survey of economists that forecast an increase of just 0.6 percent. This new data has led to a fresh wave of enthusiastic commentaries that the US economy is set for a strong recovery. Less examined were the underlying factors that supported the increase.
2013-03-13 00:00:00 Coping With Age by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management
Many things in life get better with age, but many others do not. Unfortunately for central banks, the effects of unconventional monetary policy probably fall in the latter category. Unlike traditional monetary policyin which the central bank only sets short-term interest ratesthe impact of unconventional policies likely decays over time. This means that it is not enough for the Federal Reserve to keep its current policies in placeit actually has to take additional action to maintain the same impact on interest rates and the economy.
2013-03-01 00:00:00 What Are The FOMC Minutes Telling Us? by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management
The release of the minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) caused a tremor in the bedrock of investor euphoria last week. The minutes confirmed that the cost/benefit analysis of quantitative easing (QE) is at center of policy debate right now. However, the minutes did not provide a definitive signal that the program may be cut short. In particular, it is not clear where Chairman Bernanke and Vice Chair Yellen stand. I believe the level of debate slightly raises the odds that QE will end this year.
2013-03-01 00:00:00 Ten QE Questions by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate
Most observers regard unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing as necessary to jump-start growth in today's anemic economies. But questions about the effectiveness and risks of such policies have begun to multiply as well.
2013-02-06 00:00:00 What Happens When the Fed Loses Money by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management
The Federal Reserve's exit from ultra-easy monetary policy still looks very far offby most accounts, rate hikes will not begin for more than two years and asset sales for even longer. However, the exit strategy could matter for markets well before that point. Fed officials have said that they will consider the costs and risks associated with quantitative easing (QE) when deciding how long to continue their purchases, and one factor they will be looking at will be whether the program could "complicate the Committee's efforts to eventually withdraw monetary policy accommodation."
2013-02-05 00:00:00 Are We There Yet? by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments
Last week we talked about the numerous commentators urging investors to buy the dips. We pointed out that many of them (unlike many of the Flexible Plan strategies) were under invested during the stock market rally that began last November and thus were simply trying to finally get on the market band wagon.
2013-02-05 00:00:00 2012 Equity Market Market Year in Review by Natalie Trunow of Calvert Investment Management
Equities started the year strong as global inflation remained tame, and aggressive, accommodative monetary policy by central banks around the globe helped equity markets rally hard off their lows posted in the fall of 2011. Continuously improving U.S. economic data, strong corporate earnings, and policy steps toward mitigation of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe also provided support for the equity markets worldwide.
2013-01-22 00:00:00 The Economic Fundamentals of 2013 by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate
The global economy this year will exhibit some similarities with conditions prevailing in 2012 no surprise there. But there will be some important differences, as fiscal austerity spreads to more advanced economies, the risk of a hard landing in China rises, and the threat of war in the Middle East grows.
2013-01-22 00:00:00 Equities Set to Break Out of the Bear Trap by Catherine Wood of AllianceBernstein
In the face of significant uncertainties, US and global equities rallied in 2012 and at the start of the New Year. We think there might be more to come as stocks break out of the bear trap.
2013-01-10 00:00:00 Chuck Royce on Q4 2012: Quality Rising by Chuck Royce of The Royce Funds
Do you think the market's strength in the year's second half marks the beginning of a more historically normal period for equities? I do. Of course, we've been calling for a more typical market environment for a while now, so our recent forecasting has been less than stellar. However, the market's second-half results were telling. In the third quarter we saw many quality stocks keep pace with the small-cap market as a whole. Many of these businesses then went on to outpace the Russell 2000 in the fourth quarter, particularly in October, when the rally began to cool.
2010-01-22 00:00:00 Reflections Across the Pond by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital
Having been among the economic engines of Europe for much of the past decade, it appears as if the British economy has run out of steam. Inflation is rising while bankruptcies and unemployment continu
2009-12-30 00:00:00 Monetary Policy: Inflation-Deflation, Debt, Excess Reserves, Currency Volatility by Michael J. Schussele of Michael J. Schussele, CPA