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2016-01-03 00:00:00 International Economic Week in Review: A Year End Look At China, Japan and Australia, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart
The Pacific Rim is suffering from the Chinese slowdown. China’s decreased appetite for raw materials is negatively impacting the giant Australian raw material build-out of the last 10 years. Japan’s intra-regional trade is slowing as well. There are no signs of a recession on the horizon. But it is obviously one step closer in the current environment.
2015-12-24 00:00:00 Christmas Edition: 2015 in Review by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Before we reach 2016, I want to reflect back on 2015. Everyone is talking about interest rates and monetary policy right now, but the role fiscal policy plays is just as important—if not more so. As I always say, government policy is a precursor to change, and very recently we saw this firsthand.
2015-12-16 00:00:00 The 2016 Geopolitical Outlook by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management
As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the upcoming year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance: the Election Transition, Western Populism, Small-Scale Islamic Terrorism, the Weakening of the European Union, and Trouble in the South China Sea.
2015-11-21 00:00:00 Lessons from Australia and New Zealand on Debt, Immigration, and Food by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
The arc traced by Australian and New Zealand home prices is a source of broad concern. Property values in Sydney, in particular, have risen by 50% over the past 5 years. Observers from near and far fret that the line between fair value and market excess was crossed some time ago.
2015-10-29 00:00:00 Equity Investment Outlook October 2015: Global Growth Scare: Is it Warranted? by John Osterweis, Matt Berler of Osterweis Capital Management
During the third quarter, global markets were roiled by heightened investor uncertainty and downright fear that China’s slowing economic growth might tip the global economy into recession. The selling pressure that took hold in mid-August had all the elements of a mini panic. The only assets that held their value or posted gains were cash and investment grade bonds. The further out one looked on the risk spectrum, the worse the decline.
2015-10-28 00:00:00 In the Know: What’s Ailing Biotech? by Evan McCulloch of Franklin Templeton Investments
Even if Hillary Clinton’s prescription plan, as we currently understand it, did ultimately pass, in my view the impact would be very manageable for the (biotech) sector.
2015-10-21 00:00:00 The TPP by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management
On October 6, trade negotiators announced a final agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a multilateral trade deal between 12 Pacific Rim nations in both the eastern and western hemispheres. In this report, we will begin by discussing the nations involved. We will examine some of the details of the treaty. An analysis of the geopolitics will follow along with a look at specific political factors surrounding the treaty. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.
2015-10-10 00:00:00 How these 12 TPP Nations Could Forever Change Global Growth by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
The current members include Canada, the United States, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand.After nearly seven years of negotiations, the TPP promises to deliver unprecedented free and fair global trade among the 12 participant nations.
2015-10-02 00:00:00 The Trans-Pacific Free-Trade Charade by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate
As negotiators and ministers from the US and 11 other Pacific Rim countries meet in Atlanta in an effort to finalize the details of the sweeping new Trans-Pacific Partnership, some sober analysis is warranted. The biggest regional trade and investment agreement in history is not what it seems.
2015-08-19 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: August by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments
We believe sound headline job creation figures point to rate increases by a [US] Fed that would like to begin to ‘normalize’ monetary policy when possible. The US economy is no longer in the emergency room, as it was in December 2008.
2015-08-07 00:00:00 Fundamentals and Policy Keep RMB Afloat by Hayden Briscoe of AllianceBernstein
Even before the recent correction in China’s A-Shares market, a number of investors had expressed skepticism about our positive outlook for the renminbi (RMB). Some even saw a devaluation as a possibility. For a variety of reasons, we continue to see the currency appreciating.
2015-07-01 00:00:00 The 2015 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management
As is our custom, at mid-year, we update our geopolitical outlook for the rest of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international situation into year’s end. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.
2015-05-20 00:00:00 Why US Economic Growth May Disappoint Again In 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Our main topic today is how the US economy continues to disappoint expectations, and 2015 looks to be no exception. Forecasts for GDP growth this year continue to be downgraded, and there is at least a small possibility that the US economy is slipping into recession.
2014-01-28 00:00:00 The TTIP and the TPP by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a trade and investment treaty being negotiated between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a similar pact between the U.S. and various Pacific Rim nations. We will examine overall details of each, focusing on how theyre different from traditional trade agreements. From there, we will present an analysis of the controversy surrounding the proposals, followed by a look at the geopolitical aims and likelihood that these treaties will be enacted. We conclude with potential market ramificatio
2013-12-17 00:00:00 The 2014 Geopolitical Outlook by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international situation in the upcoming year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the "big picture" conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.
2013-10-23 00:00:00 Economic & Capital Market Summary by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management
It has been five years since the Financial Crisis wreaked havoc on the economy and capital markets. With equity markets trading near record highs and new issue corporate bonds coming to market regularly, the capital markets have largely recovered. However, we are concerned that the economic recovery is just an illusion that exists in spite of the efforts in Washington D.C. to kill it.
2013-09-27 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
Merkels win is unlikely to lead to any changes in the Eurozone. Extra lift from exports is not guaranteed. Robust growth is a challenge in India, Brazil and Indonesia.
2013-08-06 00:00:00 China's Slowdown by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
Over the past three decades, China has seen its economy grow significantly.
2013-06-04 00:00:00 Vincent Reinhart on Debt and Growth in the U.S. and Japan by Robert Huebscher (Article)
High debt levels translate to slower growth, according to Vincent Reinhart. That conclusion will be disheartening to those who jumped on the errors several University of Massachusetts scholars found last month in Carmen Reinhart (Vincent’s wife) and Ken Rogoff’s research. But Vincent Reinhart is the author, along with his wife and Rogoff, of a study published in 2012 that documented the degree to which high debt-to-GDP levels correlate with slower economic growth in developed countries.
2013-03-20 00:00:00 Global Real Estate StocksTime to Get Out? by Eric Franco of AllianceBernstein
Real estate stocks have now rebounded from the crash during the global financial crisis. But we think valuations are still reasonable, especially as property fundamentals continue to improve in key markets.
2013-02-22 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Outlook: Will Emerging Markets Continue Their Run in 2013? by Scott Klimo of Saturna Capital
A number of times we have been asked whether emerging markets will continue their run in 2013. Our response typically begins with the following clarification: "Emerging markets" may be a handy way to refer to the countries that constitute a generally recognized asset class, but this group is far from monolithic. Widely differing levels of development, economic drivers, opportunities to invest, and returns exist under the emerging markets umbrella. For this reason it's not entirely correct to imply that "emerging markets" had a run in 2012.
2011-09-16 00:00:00 APEC Forum Convenes by Robert J. Horrocks of Matthews Asia
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, representing 21 Pacific Rim countries, kicked off a summit this week in San Francisco. The summit will address issues including energy, transportation and womens economic participation in preparation for an APEC heads of state meeting in Hawaii this November. The topics being addressed during the summit are of great interest to those seeking to understand some of Asias long-term growth trends. Female participation in Asias labor force can be quite low.
2010-02-25 00:00:00 As Greece Goes, So Goes the U.S.? by Paul Kasriel and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust
Greece's debt crisis may not make much of an impact on U.S. economic growth. In the third and fourth quarters of 2009, total U.S. exports increased at annual rates of 24.6 percent and 28.1 percent, respectively. South America and the Pacific Rim accounted for a combined 31.7 percent of U.S. exports in the fourth quarter of last year, while Europe accounted for just 23.1 percent. Kasriel and Bangalore also comment on the likely prospects for a low federal funds rate in the long term, and record lows for new home sales.