More on Related Themes
2015-11-30 00:00:00 What Is the Credit Cycle Telling Us About 2016? by Tony Wong of Invesco Blog
As investors anticipate the beginning of a new year, we at Invesco Fixed Income are anticipating a new phase in the credit cycle for several bond asset classes. In this post, I will highlight a few areas where we’re seeing substantial changes in asset classes’ fundamentals or operating environment. We believe these areas could influence the broader market in 2016.
2015-11-27 00:00:00 Why Argentina's New Leader Is Good for Latin America and Global Investors by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
This week, Argentina said no, gracias to further leftist rule when it elected conservative businessman and two-term Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri to succeed Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as president. It was an upset victory for the people of Argentina, who have seen their once-prosperous nation deteriorate under decades of Marxist policies. It was also a strong win for investors around the globe. Not since Narendra Modi's election last year has a leader's entry on the world stage inspired such bullishness.
2015-11-21 00:00:00 Lessons from Australia and New Zealand on Debt, Immigration, and Food by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
The arc traced by Australian and New Zealand home prices is a source of broad concern. Property values in Sydney, in particular, have risen by 50% over the past 5 years. Observers from near and far fret that the line between fair value and market excess was crossed some time ago.
2015-11-17 00:00:00 Gasoline and Coffee Fuel Our Daily Lives. Can Commodities Also Fuel Our Investment Portfolios? by Bransby Whitton, Klaus Thuerbach, Kate Botting of PIMCO
Commodities are a tangible part of our daily lives. They are the food we eat, the energy that powers our cars and heats our homes, the metals that go into our electrical wiring and our jewelry. Yet investing in commodities can seem elusive.
2015-11-13 00:00:00 The Bullish Case for Aussie Gold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
There’s a gold bear market here in North America, where the yellow metal has plunged to a six-year low of $1,083 per ounce on the strong U.S. dollar. But when priced in the weaker Aussie dollar, the precious metal is sitting at $1,520. As recently as last month, it touched $1,642.
2015-11-13 00:00:00 Gasoline and Coffee Fuel Our Daily Lives. Can Commodities Also Fuel Our Investment Portfolios? by Bransby Whitton, Klaus Thuerbach, Kate Botting of PIMCO
Commodities are a tangible part of our daily lives. They are the food we eat, the energy that powers our cars and heats our homes, the metals that go into our electrical wiring and our jewelry. Yet investing in commodities can seem elusive.
2015-11-13 00:00:00 Americas: Economy Trends Update October 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
The fall in energy and commodity prices continues to drive the divergent economic trends in the U.S. and other countries in the region. While the low fuel costs have supported the ongoing healthy U.S. economic expansion, the resource exporting countries in the region continue to struggle. Brazil remains in an economic recession even as political controversies have worsened the outlook for the country. The recent downgrades by the credit rating agencies have led to significant capital outflows from Brazil, making it difficult for domestic corporations to finance growth.
2015-11-09 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Winners and Losers: Q3 2015 by Jackie Lafferty of Loomis Sayles
Investor risk aversion battered emerging market (EM) assets during the third quarter. Local currency and hard currency markets both posted negative gains and EM equities posted double digit losses.
2015-11-07 00:00:00 Get Ready for Commodity Liftoff: Global Manufacturing Just Made a HUGE Move! by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
As Donald Trump might say: This is going to be huge.
2015-11-02 00:00:00 In China and Brazil, Macro Headwinds Reveal Stock Opportunities by Mark Jason of Invesco Blog
The third quarter was one of the most difficult quarters I can remember for Asia and Latin America, as stocks and currencies tumbled. However, markets can change quickly, and the Invesco International and Global Growth team believes the fall in valuations has made our markets more attractive for long-term investors now than they were just three months ago.
2015-10-30 00:00:00 Have Commodities Reached an Inflection Point? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
This week the Federal Reserve announced that it would delay the interest rate liftoff yet again, but while everyone seems concerned about nominal rates—the federal funds rate, in this case—real rates have already risen about 5 percent since August 2011. This “invisible” rate hike is much more impactful to commodity prices and emerging markets than a nominal rate hike, which is simply the “tip of the iceberg.”
2015-10-29 00:00:00 On U.S. Growth: Near-Term Concern, Long-Term Optimism by Dr. Brian Jacobsen, CFA, and John Manley, CFA of Wells Fargo Asset Management
The global economic landscape raises near-term concern, but long-term optimism. Wells Fargo’s Dr. Brian Jacobsen, CFA, and John Manley, CFA discuss growth obstacles and prospects, as well as portfolio positioning.
2015-10-29 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: September 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices declined further in September, as fears about slower global economic growth persisted. External trade data from China was weaker than expected and accentuated investor concerns that the world’s second largest economy could miss current growth targets. Nevertheless, retail sales in China continued to expand at a healthy pace in August as the central bank’s interest rate cuts and other policy measures lifted domestic consumer sentiment.
2015-10-28 00:00:00 4Q 2015 Outlook: Key Issues Have Not Changed Much This Year by Michael Avery, Cynthia Prince-Fox, Chace Brundige of Ivy Investment Management Company
As the final quarter of 2015 begins, we are reminded of several topics of focus from the start of the year: concerns that global central bankers are stuck with their current monetary policies because the global economy now depends on them; market acceptance that higher U.S. interest rates are inevitable, even if they rise only slightly; and favorable prospects for U.S. consumers, who benefit from a stronger labor market and lower energy prices. If the topics sound familiar now, it is because little has changed in these areas while global risks have increased for several reasons.
2015-10-10 00:00:00 How these 12 TPP Nations Could Forever Change Global Growth by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
The current members include Canada, the United States, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand.After nearly seven years of negotiations, the TPP promises to deliver unprecedented free and fair global trade among the 12 participant nations.
2015-10-09 00:00:00 A Lens on Latin America by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
We think the manner in which Brazil’s government institutes reforms to utilize its resources most effectively will be key to its economic transformation. Within the next three to five years we could see tremendous changes—if the will is there.
2015-10-03 00:00:00 The U.S. Starts a Challenging Fiscal Year by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
The budget battles that rage at this point on the calendar illustrate the myopia and dysfunction of the American legislative process.
2015-09-25 00:00:00 China, Commodities, and Crisis: What’s Next for Emerging Markets by Zachary Karabell of Envestnet
China’s growth story fueled global markets for years, and the recent market rout raises concerns that the spigot may be tapping out. But is it really? Emerging markets, currently out of favor with investors, are showing signs of domestic economic growth driven by an expanding middle class. Could these economies, along with China, re-emerge as bright spots in the global markets?
2015-09-17 00:00:00 Economic Surprises Are Turning Back Over In The US by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital
The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US is at two-month low and squarely back in negative territory. The US has spent almost the entire year not meeting expectations.
2015-09-11 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: September by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments
While the [US] Fed is facing an extremely delicate task ... it is still our belief that the US economy remains sufficiently strong to be able to bear a gradual increase in short-term rates in the coming months.
2015-08-28 00:00:00 Times Like This by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia
Times like this in the markets can be unsettling. We are accustomed to dealing with risk, or at least familiar with “normal” market swings from year to year. But when there is a sudden abrupt fall in markets, investors are often left to wonder “What is going on?” Are we seeing a repeat of 1997? 2013? Matthews Asia’s Chief Investment Officer Robert Horrocks, PhD, offers his views on recent developments, drawing from historical context but also noting the instances in which history can be misleading.
2015-08-14 00:00:00 The Shot Not Heard Around the World by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital
China’s recent move to devalue the yuan has sent shock waves through the global financial markets and has convinced most observers that a new front in the global currency wars has begun. The move has caused...
2015-08-14 00:00:00 China Not Immune to Contagious Quantitative Easing and Massive Printing of Cheap Money by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
First it was the U.S. Federal Reserve. Then, in 2013, Japan launched what became known as Abenomics. The European Central Bank (ECB) followed suit in 2014. And now the People’s Bank of China has joined the parade. All of them in some way stimulated economic growth by initiating monetary quantitative easing (QE) programs.
2015-08-12 00:00:00 Global Economic Slowdown - Implications For US Stocks by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
The global economy is rolling over to the downside for the most part. The question is, will this global slowdown take the US economy down with it? While no one knows for sure, that possibility simply cannot be ruled out. If the softening in the global economy leads to a slowdown in the US, that will almost certainly result in a weakening of our stock markets.
2015-08-10 00:00:00 Down Gaps Have Doubled In the Last Month by Jennifer Thomson of GaveKal Capital
One of many market internal indicators that we use– the number of stocks that are gapping lower at the open of trading– is signaling an increase in emotional selling behavior over the last month or so, quickly jumping from 1,000 to 2,000 (blue line, axis inverted) for the MSCI World Index. While this move is not without precedent, the historic correlation between an increase in down gaps and a decline in the market warrants attention– especially in light of how quickly the number of down gaps can accelerate as market prices decline.
2015-08-02 00:00:00 International Economic Week in Review: Emerging Market Exodus, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart
One of the biggest stories to emerge has been the decline in Emerging Market Currencies. The IMF noted this in their latest World Economic Outlook.
2015-08-02 00:00:00 Europe: Back to Business by Philippe Brugere-Trelat of Franklin Templeton Investments
The main very positive consequence of the Greek rescue agreement—even if nobody in Greece or in the eurozone at large seems to like it—is that Greece appears to be staying in the eurozone and the construct has been safeguarded.
2015-07-26 00:00:00 Chugging Along by John Osterweis, Matt Berler of Osterweis Capital Management
Sitting down to write this quarter’s Outlook we feel a bit sheepish. Despite all the headlines and drama around the world (e.g., Greece, Mid-East turmoil, China stock market bubble), not much has changed in our outlook for the U.S. economy or the U.S. financial markets. The U.S. economy appears to have rebounded in the second quarter from the first quarter swoon.
2015-07-09 00:00:00 While Attention Has Been On China, EM Latin America Keeps Taking It On The Chin by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital
EM Latin America stocks are by far the worst performing stocks in the world this year. So even though all eyes are on China at the moment, as Bryce recently pointed out, the Chinese stock market doesn’t matter much for non-Chinese investors.
2015-07-07 00:00:00 Emerging-Market Stocks: Back on the Map by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett
After the volatility of the past few years, conditions once again appear favorable for this asset class.
2015-07-01 00:00:00 Growth Matters by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
We have found that companies in the consumer or retail space with a high market share can benefit from rising consumption and GDP per capita. These investments are particularly attractive if profit margins can be improved.
2015-06-25 00:00:00 Building for the Future: Infrastructure in Emerging Markets by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
Emerging economies in general have experienced stronger economic growth trends than developed markets over the past decade, a trend that I expect to continue. That growth, combined with rising populations and a trend toward urbanization, requires more infrastructure.
2015-06-22 00:00:00 Global Review and Equity Commentary: May 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
The decline in U.S. economic activity during the first quarter was more than earlier estimates, and appears to have weakened business sentiment in other parts of the world. Most of the fall in U.S. aggregate output was due to temporary factors such as adverse weather and port disruptions that led to delayed export shipments. The stronger dollar also reduced the earnings growth of large U.S. corporations with a global footprint.
2015-06-17 00:00:00 Need Income? Let’s Talk by Alison Martier of AllianceBernstein
Investors and their advisors know how tough it is to generate income in today’s low-interest-rate world. Forthright and frequent conversation about how far they’re willing to go to boost returns can help.
2015-06-15 00:00:00 Luxury Spending in China by Winnie Chwang of Matthews Asia
Over the past decade, conspicuous consumption has been seen across China and Hong Kong, emerging as a natural by-product of an economy experiencing rapidly rising levels of affluence. Across China, there have been stories of unbelievable extravagance, from diamond-studded smartphone cases to gold-plated sport cars and replicas of homes that resemble the White House. However, these days of excessive spending in China may already have waned. Asia Weekly explores.
2015-06-02 00:00:00 State of Emerging Markets: All About Those [Central] Banks by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
Moving into the second quarter of 2015 and beyond, we believe a complex global background appears broadly favorable for emerging markets.
2015-05-23 00:00:00 Northern Trust Perspective by Jim McDonald of Northern Trust
Our monthly Perspective newsletter keeps you apprised of current market and economic conditions across an array of topics including: US, European and Asian markets, global real estate and commodities.
2015-05-21 00:00:00 Global Review and Equity Commentary: April 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
As expected, the global economy slowed during the first quarter but should gain momentum in the coming months. The U.S. economy almost came to a standstill during the first three months of the year as adverse winter weather limited activity. Consumer spending moderated and construction activity slowed, while lower oil prices discouraged businesses in that sector from capital investments. The stronger dollar and labor disputes at some of the seaports limited export gains, and led to a widening of the U.S. trade deficit.
2015-05-18 00:00:00 Investor Sentiment Around the World by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
We certainly don’t want to jump to any conclusions about potential market performance based on investor sentiment (or any one indicator for that matter), but it reminds me of the late Sir John Templeton’s famous words: ‘Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism and die on euphoria.
2015-05-08 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview and Equity Commentaries: March 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
The global economy is facing subdued growth in the short term, as adverse weather and a stronger currency have slowed the pace of U.S. expansion. Unusually severe winter weather on the U.S. East coast restricted business and consumer activity during the first three months of the year.
2015-05-05 00:00:00 Americas: Economy Trends Update - April 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
Lower oil and commodity prices as well as changes in currency rates continue to be the main drivers of economic trends in the Americas. The weak export outlook for energy and commodities have hurt the prospects of large economies such as Brazil, which is expected to see a decline in economic output this year.
2015-04-14 00:00:00 China: New Year, New Opportunity? by Burt White of LPL Financial
China will release its first quarter 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) report this week on April 14, 2015, with the market expecting a 7% year-over-year increase. Regardless of whether China hits that target, its stock market has already been positive so far this year. In this year of the goat in 2015, global investors have not been sheepish about buying Chinese stocks, powering the Shanghai Composite 25% higher so far in 2015 amid prospects for more monetary stimulus and policy reforms.
2015-04-08 00:00:00 Policy Paranoia by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates
The present version of policy paranoia encompasses concerns over impending interest rate hikes, the rapid appreciation of the US dollar, a bloated US government balance sheet, weak international economies and increased probability of a crisis in certain Latin American countries. While legitimate, we do not believe the current ghosts are any more imminently destructive today than over the past six years.
2015-04-01 00:00:00 For Canadian Pension Funds, It’s Time to Go Global by Erin Bigley of AllianceBernstein
Pension funds in Canada have long relied on a simple fixed-income strategy: buy Canadian. And for a long time, this worked wonders. But times are changing, and our research suggests that swapping a Canada-only approach for a more globalized portfolio will provide better risk-adjusted returns in the future.
2015-03-28 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: February 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
International equity prices gained during February on expectations that the central banks in Europe and Japan would continue their quantitative easing programs, while the U.S. Federal Reserve could possibly delay its interest rate hikes. At the same time, economic trends from most major economies remained relatively stable. After two quarters of robust gains, the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace during the fourth quarter of 2014, as expected.
2015-03-27 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: February 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging Market Equities Emerging market equity prices advanced during the month of February on signs of improvement in global economic trends as well as expectations about quantitative easing in Europe and Japan. Encouraged by reduced inflation risks after the oil price decline, some of the emerging market central banks have also lowered interest rates in recent months.
2015-03-27 00:00:00 Deglobalization Redraws the Investment Map by Hayden Briscoe and Vincent Tsui of AllianceBernstein
Divergence between economies and financial markets has been a key macroeconomic trend over the last few years, and reflects in part the deglobalization of the worldwide supply chain. We expect the big winners to be countries and regions with large internal markets; the losers will be smaller countries which have yet to move up the export value chain.
2015-03-26 00:00:00 Latin America Is Blowing Up Your EM ETF Performance by Team of GaveKal Capital
On an equal-weighted, USD basis, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up just 0.99% YTD compared to MSCI World Index which is up 5.65%. So is this just a simple continuation of the trend of emerging market underperformance that has been in place over the last 4 years ? Yes, but with a caveat.
2015-03-13 00:00:00 Prospect of U.S. Fed Hike & its Effect on Asian Assets, Part I by Gerald Hwang of Matthews Asia
How close are we to a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike? How would a hike affect Asian securities? These are the questions we explore in this two-part series of Asia Insight.
2015-03-13 00:00:00 Charting The Winners And Losers Of The Latest Surge In The USD by Team of GaveKal Capital
On March 4th we wrote in The Dollar Is Breaking Out Again And What It Means For Stocks that "for a variety of cyclical and structural reasons...stocks in North America tend to be the relative beneficiary of USD strength while stocks in other regions generally, but not always, tend to underperform. The negative correlation is especially strong for European stocks." Well, since then the USD has surged another 6% so we thought we'd review how things have played out.
2015-03-11 00:00:00 A Contrarian Case for Brazil by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
Many investors in Brazil, including us, have been a little frustrated over the past couple of years with its lack of growth and progress. Gross domestic product (GDP) in Brazil grew a mere 0.2% in 2014 (estimated), a far cry from the 7.5% it saw in 2010. However, we believe Brazil has all the elements in place to achieve much higher rates of growth if the political will is there.
2015-03-05 00:00:00 The Dollar Is Breaking Out Again And What That Means For Stocks by Team of GaveKal Capital
The ICE US dollar index looks to have broken out of what has been a rather short-lived consolidation after the massive move since the middle of 2014. If this is in fact the start of another round of dollar strength, then stock investors should carefully consider where in the world to deploy cash into stocks. For a variety of cyclical and structural reasons, certain regions of the world tend to outperform in periods of USD strength and others lag. We'll try to shed some light on that with the below charts.
2015-02-25 00:00:00 China Levels the Global Playing Field by Hayden Briscoe of AllianceBernstein
It’s a powerful vision for the world’s future. The US and China: two growth powerhouses; two major currencies.
2015-02-21 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: January 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
International equity prices were mostly unchanged during January as gains in both developed and emerging Asian markets were offset by weakness in Canada and select markets in Europe. Investors turned more cautious after the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank lowered their global growth forecasts for the current year, contrary to expectations.
2015-02-21 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview: January 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
Concerns about the sharp fall in capital investments and earnings growth in select sectors resulting from lower oil prices continue to cloud the global economic outlook. While the decline in fuel prices is revitalizing consumer spending across all the major countries, the energy and mining sectors have already started curtailing their capital outlays.
2015-02-21 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: January 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices outperformed in January on expectations that economic conditions in large Asian countries such as China and India could brighten this year. Fourth quarter GDP growth in China met expectations, helped by higher industrial production and consumer spending.
2015-02-19 00:00:00 2015 Annual Forecast by Clyde Kendzierski of Financial Solutions Group
It’s already February, but for many readers this is the first communication of 2015 so, Happy New Year! It’s been a great 6 weeks so far and we’re looking forward to many more to come. Let’s get into it…
2015-02-19 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: December 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices corrected during the month on concerns that the steep fall in crude oil prices could hurt the outlook for select countries.
2015-02-17 00:00:00 Search for Strength: EM Downturn Puts Focus on Fundamentals by Sponsored Content by Invesco (Article)
- Corporate earnings deterioration and a decline in return on capital have held back emerging market performance.
- Reversing weak performance depends on a return to stronger corporate earnings.
- Downside risks could lead to disappointing earnings growth, but positive fundamentals are unfolding.
2015-02-17 00:00:00 EM Sector Featuring Ryan Paylor by (Article)
The emerging market sector, especially Latin America, presents potential opportunity to CEF investors, says Ryan Paylor, of Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors.
2015-02-09 00:00:00 Bonds or Jeter? by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors
In baseball, batters choose to either swing for the fences in hopes of a home run or go for more consistent base hits. These same principles are highly relevant to the current market environment and long-term investment success. So, see if you really want home run hitters in your portfolio?
2015-02-06 00:00:00 High-Yield ETFs: Don’t Get Fenced In by Gershon Distenfeld of AllianceBernstein
Few high-yield investors have weathered the recent plunge in energy prices without experiencing at least a few bumps and bruises. But those who relied on broad market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to gain market exposure are nursing the most serious wounds. Coincidence? We don’t think so.
2015-02-03 00:00:00 A Greek Morality Tale by Joseph E. Stiglitz of Project Syndicate
When the euro crisis began a half-decade ago, Keynesian economists predicted that the austerity imposed on Greece and the other crisis countries would fail. Now that it has, what is needed is not structural reform in Greece so much as a fundamental reform of the eurozone's design and policy frameworks.
2015-02-03 00:00:00 Americas Economy Trends Update January 2015 by Team of Thomas White International
Thomas White International seeks superior performance by identifying undervalued securities in the U.S. and nearly 45 markets worldwide. Its flagship product is the Thomas White International Fund (TWWDX).
2015-02-03 00:00:00 Municipal Market Perspectives by Team of SMC Fixed Income Management
Pick your poison: weaker oil and copper prices; increasing gold demand; Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar devaluations; another possible Greek tragedy; launch of European Central Bank (“ECB”) bond buying program; waning emerging markets; weakening U.S. stock prices; global deflation worries. It appears to us that the broadening global weakness could be beginning to negatively impact the U.S. expansion. Given the current state of global events, we see no reason for the Fed to prematurely move ahead with its rate normalization plan as many anticipate occurring by mid-year 2015.
2015-01-29 00:00:00 Municipal Market Update: What's Ahead in 2015 by Joseph Deane, Julie Callahan, Sean McCarthy of PIMCO
Municipal bonds ended 2014 as one of the best-performing asset classes - buoyed by investors’ search for yield in a low interest-rate environment. For 2015, we are positioned cautiously for greater volatility in the fixed income markets. We currently prefer revenue-backed bonds over most general obligation (GO) debt, as these sectors typically benefit from dedicated revenue streams and do not have the pension challenges that many state and local governments face.
2015-01-28 00:00:00 European Central Bank Embraces QE, For Better Or Worse by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Last Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced the much-anticipated launch of a sovereign bond buying program at the rate of ?60 billion ($70 billion) per month known as ?quantitative easing.? The amount of the monthly purchases was slightly higher than had been expected.
2015-01-23 00:00:00 U.S. Lodging: The Recovery Checks In for an Extended Stay by Ray Huang, Amit Arora of PIMCO
Relatively high occupancy levels should drive room rate growth in the hotel sector over the next several years, despite some supply entering the market. We see opportunities in certain segments, such as premium hotels and C-corporations, due to high barriers to entry and pricing power.
2015-01-23 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management
Commodity price declines were the symptom of sharply deteriorating economic conditions prior to the 1920-21 depression. To be sure, today?s economic environment is different. The world economies are not emerging from a destructive war, nor are we on the gold standard, and U.S. employment is no longer centered in agriculture and factories (over 50% in the U.S. in 1920). The fact remains, however, that global commodity prices are in noticeable retreat.
2015-01-16 00:00:00 The Swiss National Bank?s Unpleasant Experience of Sleeping Next to an Elephant by Sachin Gupta, Thomas Kressin of PIMCO
On 15 January 2015, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly exited its minimum exchange rate regime, which it had adopted back in September 2011 when it was fighting sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc in the midst of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
2015-01-13 00:00:00 Volatility and Uncertainty in the Energy Market by Kathleen Gaffney of Eaton Vance
What?s causing the decline in oil prices? Kathleen Gaffney, co-director of investment-grade fixed income weighs in.
2015-01-13 00:00:00 2015 - Fasten Your Seat Belts, This Could Be a Bumpy Ride by Chris Puplava of PFS Group
While higher stock prices are often cited as the biggest beneficiary of the Fed?s several rounds of quantitative easing (QE), a lesser cited beneficiary has been overall market volatility and the credit markets. With each round of QE and/or ?Operation Twist? we?ve seen measures of financial stress in the credit markets contract.
2015-01-12 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: November 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
International equity prices saw modest gains during the month of November, helped by hopes of additional quantitative stimulus measures from the European Central Bank (ECB) as well as more robust U.S. economic data.
2015-01-12 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: November 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices saw a moderate correction during the month as markets in Latin America and Europe slipped. Countries where exports are dominated by energy and commodities saw the worst declines as oil prices continued to tumble.
2015-01-09 00:00:00 Recovery Gaining Momentum? by Ed Devlin, Mike Cudzil, Lupin Rahman of PIMCO
U.S. growth will remain robust over the cyclical horizon due to increasing consumption driven by the narrowing unemployment gap and increase in disposable incomes. The Canadian recovery should continue, though divergent forces ? including the U.S. recovery and oil price declines ? could have significant implications for the economy. Growth will be muted across Latin America, with some economies benefitting from U.S. growth, and others dragged down by the slowdown in the eurozone and China.
2015-01-08 00:00:00 Global Economic Outlook by Team of Northern Trust
Re-entry to the workplace after the holiday season isn't exactly like a satellite descending from earth's orbit.
2015-01-06 00:00:00 The Cuban Thaw by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
On December 17, 2014, President Obama surprised the country by announcing a prisoner exchange and negotiations to begin establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba. Given that the Eisenhower administration broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba in January 1961, even considering resuming relations is a major change in policy. In this report, we will discuss the importance of Cuba to the geopolitics of the U.S and offer a short history. We will analyze the limits of the current thaw and why this attempt at rapprochement is occurring now. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
2015-01-02 00:00:00 Do Economic Sanctions Work? by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate
With Western economic sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Cuba in the news, it is a good time to take stock of the debate on just how well such measures work. The short answer is that economic sanctions usually have only modest effects, even if they can be an essential means of demonstrating moral resolve.
2014-12-31 00:00:00 Structural Reforms in Asia by Sharat Shroff of Matthews Asia
The global investment community continues to deliberate about the impact of quantitative easing stemming from Europe, and more recently from Japan, as a means to revive domestic demand. Meanwhile, several Asian economies are embarking on a different kind of stimulus, aimed at boosting long-term productivity and investment spending, through structural changes to the underlying economies.
2014-12-17 00:00:00 Plunging Oil Prices Spark Fears of Global Recession by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Today, we touch on several bases. No doubt everyone reading this noticed that stocks tanked last week, and now seem to be moving in lockstep with oil prices. While consumers welcome cheaper gas and heating oil prices, there is a growing fear that the collapse in oil prices may be a harbinger of a global recession.
2014-11-24 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: October 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices turned volatile during October as concerns about weak global growth and the impending close of bond purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve unnerved investors. Still, some of the large emerging markets in Asia rebounded strongly during the second half of the month.
2014-11-21 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging by Burt White of LPL Financial
We believe emerging markets (EM) fundamental conditions are set for improvement in 2015, based on our outlooks for economic growth, earnings, and policy. Valuations are compelling and EM may be situated to recapture some of their relative losses from a technical perspective, particularly in Asian markets. However, somewhat mixed fundamental and technical pictures suggest a better opportunity may be forthcoming
2014-11-15 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
Falling oil prices produce gain... and pain; Brazil's post-election challenges; The Fed may seek to overshoot its inflation target
2014-11-06 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
While Russia has been experiencing a slowdown for quite some time, the new round of sanctions imposed by the West has hit the economy even harder.
2014-11-04 00:00:00 So What Happened Last Month? by Team of GaveKal Capital
October was certainly a rollercoaster ride in the equity markets but it was a ride that ended right where it started. The average stock in the MSCI World Index was up 13 basis points over the past month.
2014-11-04 00:00:00 Three Words for Brazil by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
As long-time investors in Brazil, the recent presidential election has been of keen interest to us. One can certainly say its been an interesting race! The market had been volatile based on the changing polls leading up to the election; there were hopes that new leadership would ignite a positive new direction for Brazils economy, which hasnt experienced the type of economic boom many (including us) had hoped forand believe is possible.
2014-11-04 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: September 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices corrected in September on concerns about weaker global growth even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to wind down its bond purchases. Signs of yet another downturn in the Euro-zone economy are likely to hurt the export outlook for the major emerging countries that had seen a modest improvement in exports in recent months.
2014-11-04 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
The clear divergence in economic growth trends between the developed economies in North America and Latin America widened during the third quarter. The U.S. is now the fastest growing developed country in the world, and has lifted the outlook for Canada and Mexico, two of its major trading partners in the region.
2014-10-22 00:00:00 The Eighth Default of Argentina by Kaisa Stucke, Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
Very few countries have seen as spectacular of a decline in its economic standing over the past 100 years as Argentina has. Argentina has been in the international headlines recently due to its sovereign debt default, the eighth default in the history of the country. This week we will look at Argentina, its long history of economic booms and busts, its political background, and its extensive chronicle of sovereign debt defaults. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
2014-10-21 00:00:00 Loomis Sayles Core Plus Bond Fund: Navigating Dynamic Markets with Tactical Flexibility by Sponsored Content from Loomis Sayles (Article)
The global economic cycle is a perpetual force influencing interest rates, credit availability and capital markets. For core plus managers who seek to generate total return by balancing liquidity and risk, these undulations pose a clear challenge.
2014-10-21 00:00:00 Opportunities Amid Divergence by Michael Gomez of PIMCO
As in developed markets, the trends of increasing growth and policy dispersion will be borne out in emerging markets over the next 12 months. Brazil has some of the highest interest rates in the world, which presents an opportunity for investors, and we expect the next four years will be marked by a better mix of fiscal and monetary policy. Because our outlook for China has moderated somewhat, we are focusing attention on trade and financial linkages and how the ripple effects of a slower China might unfold.
2014-10-09 00:00:00 Global asset allocation outlook by Global Asset Allocation Team of Columbia Management
Recent market performance, particularly in September, has been negative across a widespread array of asset classes as we have seen the U.S. dollar exchange rate rise with increasing intensity in recent months. The worst returns, not coincidentally, were delivered by the very assets that have shown historically high sensitivity to dollar strength. This disruption to currency stability in general, and the particular importance of a rise in exchange value for the worlds reserve currency, represents an important change in capital market conditions.
2014-10-08 00:00:00 The State of Small-Cap Valuations and Holding High-Confidence Names by Jay Kaplan of The Royce Funds
With the U.S. economy and employment rate slowly improving, small-cap valuations may not see a correction significant enough to offer attractively discounted share prices any time soonat least at the levels that Royce typically seeks. Portfolio Manager and Principal Jay Kaplan discusses how he's been managing his portfolios in a market environment that's been largely unkind to value investors and talks about some names he likes going forward.
2014-10-06 00:00:00 Emerging from the Global Competitiveness Ranks by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently released its annual Global Competitiveness Report, which details the strengths and weakness of 144 countries in myriad factors including education, infrastructure, health and technology. There arent many huge surprises in the developed markets, as most countries overall rankings were fairly stable from the prior year. There were, however, a few interesting shifts in the ranks among emerging markets: some making leaps forward, and others, regressing.
2014-10-02 00:00:00 Voya Fixed Income Perspectives September 2014 by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms of Voya Investment Management
Change is in the air, and its evident beyond the riot of color overwhelming our natural landscape. Market dynamics, too, are shifting, with the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury inching higher and the U.S. dollar appreciating. Both not only suggest markets are pricing in a stronger U.S. economy, they are also potential harbingers that the end of zero interest rate policy is near.
2014-10-02 00:00:00 PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the Americas: Recovery Remains Intact, Yet Uneven by Ed Devlin, Mike Cudzil, Lupin Rahman of PIMCO
U.S. growth can potentially exceed expectations over the cyclical horizon, in part bolstered by a healing consumer and a very accommodative Federal Reserve. While real growth in Canada has been modest in recent years, it increased to 3.1% in the second quarter and we expect that positive momentum to continue this year. In Latin America, we expect growth will pick up for the region as a whole with outperformance by smaller economies like Colombia and Panama.
2014-09-25 00:00:00 Three Reasons to Consider EM Asia by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock
Though EM stocks have been struggling of late, Russ still believes investors should have emerging market exposure, particularly in emerging Asia. He provides three reasons why.
2014-09-25 00:00:00 Global Equities Stay Thirsty for Liquidity by Rick Golod of Invesco Blog
Taking a step back from the usual economic and market insights, my September commentary is devoted to a topic that Ive been long overdue in addressing. Financial advisors have frequently asked about my approach to asset allocation, and Ive outlined my strategy for diversifying within the US equity space in my commentary, Harnessing the Markets Natural Rotation: An Asset Allocation Strategy. Here, Id like to provide a summary of my outlook, which remains unchanged from the previous month.
2014-09-22 00:00:00 Alternative Approaches for Managing Emerging Market Equity Portfolios by Roger Edgley, Laura Geritz, Andrey Kutuzov, and Ajay Krishnan of Wasatch Funds
The shortcomings of indexing are especially evident in frontier markets, where some very small markets have significant weights. This paper discusses three approaches for targeting inefficiencies in emerging markets. These approaches are designed to fit together and complement each other within an investment portfolio. Overlap is generally minimal, so investors may reasonably employ all three.
2014-09-18 00:00:00 More than Half of EM Stocks are Down At Least 10% From Their High by Team of GaveKal Capital
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down about 4% from its recent high, but the average stock has fared much worse. By our count more than than 50% of EM stocks are down at least 10% from their 200-day high. The trend of more stocks being down at least 10% from their recent high can be seen in all regions, but is clearly most prevalent in Latin America, where the number has increased from 22% to 60% in a week.
2014-09-06 00:00:00 The New Challenges of Price Discovery by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
In the past few years, price discoveryor the act of finding the right price for a securityhas become much more challenging because of falling stock volume and widening bid-ask spreads. These challenges are directly attributable to the infiltration of high-frequency traders into the market, not to mention the expansion of dark pools and non-exchange trading.
2014-09-04 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: July, 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices continued to outperform the developed markets in July and ended the month with moderate gains. Markets in Asia significantly outperformed during the month, helped by signs of stabilizing economic growth in major markets such as China.
2014-09-02 00:00:00 The Exaggerated Death of Inflation by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate
Modern central banking has worked wonders to bring down inflation. Ultimately, however, a central banks anti-inflation policies can work only within the context of a macroeconomic and political framework that is consistent with price stability.
2014-08-28 00:00:00 Brazil: A Ripe Market for Bottom-Up Stock Pickers by Jim Harvey, Dilip Badlani of The Royce Funds
Royce International Micro-Cap Fund Portfolio Managers Jim Harvey and Dilip Badlani talk about their recent trip to Brazil, the country's current challenges, the importance of careful stock selection, what insider ownership reveals, Brazil's real estate market, learning from experience, looking for competitive advantages and the importance of corporate governance, and where they've been finding opportunities.
2014-08-20 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
Economic trends from the region during the second quarter were in line with earlier periods, as the developed economies in North America are seeing healthier growth while most of the emerging economies in Latin America are facing a slowdown.
2014-08-18 00:00:00 Tug of War Continues Between Fundamentals and Geopolitics by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management
Important progress in the global recovery, U.S. labor market and corporate earnings has been masked by geopolitical tensions. The conflict involving Russia could have a significant impact on the eurozone and global growth. Market volatility is likely to increase in the short term, causing headwinds for risk assets.
2014-08-13 00:00:00 Toward the Sounds of Chaos by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors
Stock market volatility is always a scary thing. Investors nearing retirement fear their nest eggs will evaporate. Younger investors saving for a home or a childs college education fear their families futures might be in doubt. However, history suggests that allowing volatility to overrule a good investment plan tends to lead to poor performance. Its not volatility itself that generally leads to poor longer-term performance, but rather it appears to be investors emotional reactions to volatility that ultimately lead to poor performance.
2014-08-12 00:00:00 Baseball, Hot Dogs, and Apple Pie by Michael Kayes of Willingdon Wealth Management
What really is, or perhaps isn't, economic patriotism? Read on to find out how this issue is impacting our economy and markets.
2014-08-11 00:00:00 A Strengthening Case for European Bonds by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments
The pace of the eurozones economic recovery has been so slow that many people are now asking whether quantitative easing (QE) is inevitable to support a recovery and prevent deflation. But David Zahn, portfolio manager for Franklin Global Government Bond Fund, thinks recent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions in the European financial markets already amount to QE. More importantly, he thinks the extensive set of measures that the ECB has announced not only may support Europes economic recovery, but bring a highly favorable backdrop for European fixed income investments gene
2014-08-07 00:00:00 Federal Reserve Tapering Part I: Emerging Market Currency Performance by Bradley Krom of WisdomTree
While many investors tend to focus on changes of currency spot rates, a primary reason we have long advocated that investors allocate to EM currencies is the income potential driven by the higher interest rates in many emerging market countries. In todays yield-starved environment, EM currencies remain one of the most significant means of generating income in a portfolio while limiting interest rate risk.
2014-07-23 00:00:00 Should EMC Corp Break Itself Apart?: FAST FUNdamental Analysis by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs
On Monday a Wall Street Journal article reported that the hedge fund Elliott Management Corp has taken a more than $1 billion stake in EMC Corp (EMC) and revealed that it intends to petition the company to break itself apart. Elliott believes that this would unlock shareholder value. Implicit in that thesis would be the idea that EMC Corp is not receiving full value from the market. This article is offered as an in-depth analysis of the fundamental value of EMC Corp in relation to how the market is evaluating its business.
2014-07-19 00:00:00 The Municipal Bond World, According to John Derrick by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
I sat down with Director of Research John Derrick, who also manages our Near-Term Tax Free Fund (NEARX), to get his thoughts on interest rates, the bond market and what investors should pay attention to as we move into the second quarter of 2014.
2014-07-19 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
From the Suez Canal, to Japanese bullet trains, to the American interstate highway system, to the Millennium Bridge to the Three Gorges Dam, the grandeur of infrastructure is on full display the world over. Awe-inspiring and beautiful to some, these fixtures also play a critical role in the functioning of the global economy. The choices nations make in the area of infrastructure can bear critically on prosperity.
2014-06-20 00:00:00 Mexicos Road to Reform by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
Many investors had high hopes for Mexicos market this year given an improving global economic outlook and a slate of planned domestic reforms, but some of the enthusiasm seems to have faded and economic growth has been subdued there year-to-date. I have faith in Mexicos future, even though there are likely to be a few short-term bumps as Mexicos reform efforts continue to be implementedand some challenged.
2014-06-12 00:00:00 A Quarter Century of Emerging-Markets Investing by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
At one time or another, every country could have been classified as emerging. Back in the 1800s, the Western part of the United States was called the new frontier. Investors purchasing farmland there were likely to consider it a highly speculative venture putting stakes in such a rugged and wild place.
2014-06-11 00:00:00 US Regional Banks Attractiveness Jumps in June by Erik Kobayashi-Solomon of YCharts, Inc.
Our Sector-level heat map looks much the same as it did last month, save for the fact that the shade of green has deepened for the Utilities and Financial Services sectorsindicating a larger number of companies screening undervalued according to YCharts Value Score.
2014-06-07 00:00:00 China Leads the World in Green Energy, Gaming and Gambling Markets by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Last month, Xian Liang, co-portfolio manager of our China Region Fund (USCOX), attended the 19th CLSA China Forum in Beijing. There he and hundreds of other global attendees were given the opportunity to meet with representatives from Chinese corporations, some of which U.S. Global owns. Xian also managed to get a sense of how the nation?s recent changes in consumer behavior and governmental policy reforms might affect its investment outlook. Although China remains an emerging market, it has lately taken a number of considerable strides to position itself as one of the world?s most
2014-06-04 00:00:00 Why Food Prices Are Soaring, Likely To Continue by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Consumer Food Prices Are Skyrocketing 2. 10 Fastest-Rising Food Prices at the Supermarket 3. California is in Big Trouble! So Are We All 4. Drought Monitor Chart For Continental US 5. Incurable Disease Threatens Florida Citrus Crop 6. Latin America Coffee Blight Sends Prices Skyward 7. The Solution to High Prices is High Prices
2014-05-30 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: May by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group® of Franklin Templeton Investments
We believe a substantial improvement in US growth is underway, despite first-quarter 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth coming in at an annual rate of -1.0%, well below market expectations.
2014-05-20 00:00:00 Are the Pictures on Your Website Costing You Clients? by Dan Richards (Article)
Why do most advisor websites look similar - often with stiff photos of team members smiling uncomfortably into the camera?
2014-05-20 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Update with Rennie McConnochie by (Article)
Despite recent challenges, the Emerging Markets sector poses a potentially attractive opportunity to long-term CEF investors, says Rennie McConnochie of Aberdeen.
2014-05-15 00:00:00 Schroders Monthly Markets Review: Overview of Markets in April 2014 by Keith Wade, Azad Zangana, Craig Botham of Schroder Investment Management
Global equities edged higher in April. Some stronger macroeconomic data from developed economies helped to support returns but the ongoing crisis in Ukraine remained a headwind for equities. Developed markets outperformed emerging markets. In the US, a generally firmer tone to macroeconomic data and a broadly encouraging corporate earnings season supported sentiment. Investors were also reassured by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen about maintaining low interest rates.
2014-05-08 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn
Another stable week for stock prices as deal making, solid earnings and dividend growth offset the conflicting signals on the economy as well as the uncertainties stemming from various global hot spots.
2014-05-04 00:00:00 Albania's Fertile Grounds for Oil Opportunities by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Texas is oil country. The state I now call home leads the nation in oil production and would be one of the top oil-producing nations if it were its own country. But that doesn?t stop us from exploring other promising oil opportunities further afield. Last week I traveled to Albania to check out a drill site of Petromanas Energy, a Calgary-based international oil and gas company focused on exploration and production throughout Europe and Australia. We own the junior stock in our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) and Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX).
2014-05-02 00:00:00 Down Under: Commodities to Consumption by Tarik Jaleel of Matthews Asia
Ever since China's demand for commodities intensified around 1999, its increased reliance on imported energy and minerals has underpinned Australia's boom in the natural resources industry. Naturally, as China's import growth has recently slowed, materials and energy sector firms in both Australia and New Zealand have grown cautious about their business prospects.
2014-04-29 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q1 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
The developed economies in North America continue to see relatively healthier growth prospects this year, while the outlook for the emerging economies in Latin America remains subdued. Trends from both the U.S. and Canada indicate that these economies are recovering from the slowdown at the beginning of the year, caused by adverse weather.
2014-04-26 00:00:00 China Holds the Keys to the Gold Market by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
It?s important to follow the money, or in this case the gold, to see how people around the world react to this rare commodity. Looking forward, stay curious as an investor and you?ll see if China can keep the key to the gold market.
2014-04-23 00:00:00 Positioning Your Portfolio for Rising Rates. by Team of Forward Management
Accelerating outflows from bond funds in 2013 highlight investor nervousness over the prospect of rising interest rates. Investors may want to carefully assess the role of fixed-income investments in their portfolios, particularly in light of other types of income-producing vehicles. Upon careful evaluation of their options, investors can make adjustments suitable to their objectives.
2014-04-18 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
In a currency war, everyone loses. Should monetary policy be coordinated across countries? The International Monetary Fund is at a crossroads.
2014-04-16 00:00:00 A Classic Barometer by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors
Investors seem a bit too eager to tout emerging market equities. Much as they did with technology stocks during the early-2000s, investors today are looking for the best re-entry point. Data clearly do not support anymore the notion that emerging markets are a superior growth story, yet investors seem to be ignoring the classic warnings signs for fear of missing out. One such classic warning sign is the slope of the yield curve. Historically, steeper yield curves have been reliable forecasters of stronger overall nominal economic growth and stronger profits growth.
2014-04-12 00:00:00 Every Central Bank for Itself by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors
Whether the FOMC can actually turn the taper into a true exit strategy ultimately depends on how much longer households and businesses must deleverage and how sharply our old-age dependency ratio rises, but markets seem to believe this is the beginning of the end. For now, that?s what matters most. Under Fed Chair Janet Yellen?s leadership, the Fed continues to send a clear message to the rest of the world: Now it really is every central bank for itself.
2014-04-11 00:00:00 Why China's A-Shares Matter Now by Winnie Chwang of Matthews Asia
Although we often receive questions on mainland China?s A-share equities, which trade on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, we currently invest in Chinese equities primarily via Hong Kong-listed companies and also by way of U.S.-listed Chinese firms. China?s domestic A-share market remains largely closed to foreign institutional investors. The only way for foreigners to participate in this market is to enroll in China?s Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) program or invest via a manager who has a quota in this program.
2014-04-07 00:00:00 First Quarter of 2014 Brings Many Reversals, Regressions to the Mean by Ron Surz of PPCA
Unlike 2013, diversification worked in the first quarter of 2014. As revealed in our 2013 market commentary, U.S. stocks dominated with a 33% return while diversifying assets like commodities lost 10%. As shown in the graph on the right, diversification into real estate and commodities was handsomely rewarded in the first quarter.
2014-04-01 00:00:00 U.S. Growth Offers a Tailwind for the Region by Mohit Mittal, Ed Devlin, Lupin Rahman of PIMCO
PIMCO expects growth in the U.S. to improve due to a reduction in fiscal drag, although the Federal Reserve?s tapering and slowing growth in China are risks. While higher U.S. growth should offer a boost to exporters, Canada will likely face headwinds from a housing correction and drop in consumption. Latin America has fared relatively well amid the recent volatility in emerging markets, but differentiation across credits and markets continues to increase.
2014-03-28 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International
The outlook for the developed economies in North America remains healthy while the emerging economies of Latin America continue to face headwinds. Though recent data from the U.S. and Canada have indicated moderation in economic activity, most of the slowdown was likely caused by adverse weather conditions in the region.
2014-03-28 00:00:00 Asia's E-Commerce Trends by Jerry Shih of Matthews Asia
On a recent research trip, I went to Beijing, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Melbourne and spoke with Internet companies in industries as diverse as automotives, travel and real estate. I also met with several e-commerce companies with varying Internet penetration rates. As growth rates for new Internet users across parts of Asia level off, comparing these firms offered me an interesting glimpse into the potential opportunities and challenges facing the region's newer Internet firms.
2014-03-28 00:00:00 Four Areas Revved Up for a Resources Boom by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Commodity returns vary wildly, as experienced resource investors can attest and our popular periodic table illustrates. This inherent volatility can spell opportunity for the nimble investor who can look past the mainstream headlines to identify hot spots. Our global resources expert, Brian Hicks, CFA, identified four we believe are revved up for a resources boom.
2014-03-25 00:00:00 How to Confront the End of the Bond Bull Market by Laurence B. Siegel (Article)
What does the title of Simon Lacks latest book, Bonds Are Not Forever, mean? Its a question that Lack clarifies and then answers - by proposing a creative way to construct portfolios that have many of the beneficial characteristics of bonds but without much downside interest-rate exposure.
2014-03-21 00:00:00 China's Evolving Health Care Landscape by Hayley Chan of Matthews Asia
China has begun a long-term transformation of its health care industry. Much of this industry is still fragmented and in the early stages of consolidation. China?s top 10 pharmaceutical companies, for example, account for a combined market share of approximately 20% versus more than 60% in the U.S.
2014-03-21 00:00:00 World Industrial Production Finished 2013 At An All-Time High by Team of GaveKal Capital
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis publishes a monthly report called "World Trade Monitor". This report tries to quantify the seemingly unquantifiable; world industrial production and world trade volume and prices. Either later today or early next week the CPB should come out with the first statistics for 2014. Today, however, we are going to take a look at world industrial production for 2013.
2014-03-17 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary - February 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
After a weak start to the year, emerging market equity prices recovered in February as concerns about slower than expected global expansion and a further decline in Chinese economic growth subsided.
2014-03-15 00:00:00 Follow the Money to Asia's Tech Hub by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Chinas slower economic data points and a surplus in copper and iron ore drove many commodities lower this week, while gold rose. In the short term, until the copper and iron ore surplus is liquidated, or absorbed at a slower pace, the base metals market will likely be sloppy. As the second-largest economy in the world and a huge driver of commodities demand, its not surprising China provoked such a significant response from world markets. Interestingly, most of the media thought it was geopolitical fears from Ukraine that chopped up the market and lifted gold.
2014-03-14 00:00:00 An Exhaustive Debate by Colin Dishington of Matthews Asia
Australia, which is among the largest polluters per capita in the developed world, is exploring ways to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and has set a target for reducing emissions at 5% below 2000 levels by 2020. One of its current initiatives, the carbon pricing mechanism often referred to as the carbon tax requires polluters to pay an amount proportional to the carbon dioxide equivalent emitted during a given year.
2014-03-13 00:00:00 Emerging Markets: Will Ukraine fallout become contagious? by Jeff Hussey of Russell Investments
Jeff Hussey, global CIO, outlines Russell Investments? views on the conflict in Ukraine and how it might impact the markets.
2014-02-28 00:00:00 Korea's Changing Consumer Patterns by Michael Han of Matthews Asia
Following a recent research trip to Korea, I was able to spend some time there with my family. Three consecutive weeks away afforded me the opportunity to observe changes in spending patterns among Korean consumers as well as the improving competitiveness of the country?s service industries.
2014-02-28 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: January 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices corrected in January as investors worried about slower growth in China as well as political and economic turbulence in some the frontier economies such as Argentina and the Ukraine. Markets were also unnerved by the unexpectedly large interest rate hike in Turkey, which failed to prop up the currency.
2014-02-20 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: January 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
International equity markets have started the year on a difficult note, as concerns about the robustness of economic growth in the U.S., Japan and Europe have made investors more cautious. Though the U.S. economy expanded at a faster than expected pace during the last quarter of 2013, recent data reports from the labor market have not been as healthy.
2014-02-20 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: January 2014 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices corrected in January as investors worried about slower growth in China as well as political and economic turbulence in some the frontier economies such as Argentina and the Ukraine. Markets were also unnerved by the unexpectedly large interest rate hike in Turkey, which failed to prop up the currency.
2014-02-20 00:00:00 American Industrial Renaissance Revisited by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors
We first wrote about The "American Industrial Renaissance" in 2012, and it remains one of our favorite investment themes. We continue to implement this theme through small US-centric industrial companies and small financial institutions that lend to public and private industrial firms. It remains unlikely that the United States will be the manufacturing powerhouse that it was during the 1950s and 1960s, but many factors are suggesting that the US industrial sector will continue to gain market share.
2014-02-14 00:00:00 Turkey, Doves, Hawks and Owls by Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia
The current market sentiment is something of an albatross around Asian economic and market performance. Whilst it is never safe to assume the currency speculators have gone away, the regions economies have put in enough hard work over the previous decades to earn some goodwill.
2014-02-10 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary - December 2013 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices saw a modest correction for the second successive month in December, as investors remained cautious about the outlook for some of the emerging economies. Select countries such as Thailand in Asia and Turkey in Europe continue to face difficult political environments, with large demonstrations against the governments. Their currencies have reacted negatively to the latest developments, making investors fearful of a repeat of the volatile market movements seen during the third quarter of 2013.
2014-02-10 00:00:00 What Would a Stronger Dollar Mean for Global Markets? by Borge Endresen, Brent Bates of Invesco
As the world watches the progress of the US Federal Reserves tapering program, and anticipates the strengthening of the US dollar, Were often asked how this affects our view of international markets and risk. The short answer is that it doesnt. Were long-term, bottom-up stock pickers , so we;re primarily concerned with currency impacts on a company-by-company basis. However, there are some broad trends that are worth noting.
2014-02-10 00:00:00 What Would a Stronger Dollar Mean for Global Markets? by Borge Endresen, Brent Bates of Invesco
As the world watches the progress of the US Federal Reserves (Feds) tapering program, and anticipates the strengthening of the US dollar, were often asked how this affects our view of the international market and risk. The short answer is that it doesnt. Were long-term, bottom-up stock pickers, so were primarily concerned with currency impacts on a company-by-company basis. However, there are some broad trends that are worth noting.
2014-02-07 00:00:00 Two Questions for Japan Inc. by Kara Yoon of Matthews Asia
During my last research trip in November, we visited mostly consumer-facing companies in Japan where we took the opportunity to pose two key questions to the management teams we met. The first was-"Are you planning to increase prices for products or services after Japans consumption tax hike (scheduled for April)?" And secondly: "Will you raise employee wages?"
2014-02-07 00:00:00 What's the Game Changer for Gold? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
What will break gold of its losing streak? Will inflation, which is a lagging indicator, be stronger than expected? In one of my most popular posts last year, I said that based on the jobs market, the limited housing recovery and regulations slowing down the flow of money, the Fed would have no choice but to start tapering and raising rates very gradually to keep stimulating the economy.
2014-02-06 00:00:00 Emerging Market Woes abd Fed Tapering Equals Stocks Plunge by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
January saw US stocks record their first losing month since last August. After reaching new record highs at the end of December, the Dow Jones shed almost 1,000 points in the last half of the month and the decline continues. Analysts attributed the sell-off in large part due to troubling news from several emerging nations, in particular to the so-called "Fragile Five" - Turkey, India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.
2014-01-31 00:00:00 A Surprising Gift for Chinese New Year by Sherwood Zhang of Matthews Asia
Beijing-based China Credit Trust Company, a firm that operates as a non-banking financial institution in China, announced this week it reached an agreement to restructure a risky high-yield product that had earlier ignited worries over the health of Chinas trust industry. Just in time for the Lunar New Year, investors in the troubled trust may receive a big (metaphorical) red envelope-a monetary gift traditionally given during Chinese New Year or other special occasions-or at least avoid a financial hit.
2014-01-24 00:00:00 India's Rising Aspirations by Sudarshan Murthy of Matthews Asia
Indias newly formed Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had a spectacular debut in recent state elections. Its leader became the chief minister of the state of Delhi. The election results seemed to indicate a fundamental change-voters now perceive politicians not as "rulers," but as professionals with a limited mandate to serve. The AAP ran on an anti-corruption agenda, and Delhis new chief minister seems to "walk the walk." He uses public transport to commute to work, a refreshing change from the typical politician in India who is usually seen riding in a convoy of vehicles.
2014-01-17 00:00:00 Asia's Evolving Science and Tech Space by Michael Oh of Matthews Asia
The main growth drivers of Asias science and technology industries are changing to become more domestically driven and service-oriented. These changes are happening as rising disposable income enables more Asian consumers to embrace new technologies.
2014-01-15 00:00:00 Positive Economic Surprises Are Back by Team of GaveKal Capital
Recently each day, especially in the US, it has felt as if the economic data has been a bit better than expected. The Citi Economic Surprise Index corroborates that feeling as it has now reached its highest level since February 2012.
2014-01-10 00:00:00 Hasenstab: Fed Tapering Was Inevitable by Michael Hasenstab of Franklin Templeton
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its decision to reduce its $85 billion monthly asset purchase program by $10 billion starting in January 2014. What might the eventual end of the Feds policy of aggressive money printing mean for fixed-income investors? Michael Hasenstab, Ph.D, executive vice president, chief investment officer, Global Bonds, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, believes theres no reason for investors to panic. He outlines why he thinks thats the case, and where on the map hes spotting fixed income opportunities.
2014-01-10 00:00:00 Exploring Ceylon Tea Country by Jodi Morris of Matthews Asia
Riding by train through the Sri Lankan highlands recently, I found it difficult not to be mesmerized by the views of mountains blanketed in tea plantings and cool mist. My days spent exploring Sri Lankas mountainous interior were among my favorite as a first-time visitor to the country.
2014-01-06 00:00:00 2013: A Review of the Past, the Present and the Future by Ron Surz of PPCA Inc
This commentary is divided into three sections. I begin with a review of current U.S. and foreign stock markets, examining the year 2013 and the past six years, including the crash of 2008. This perspective serves as a launch point into the future, specifically 2014 and the remainder of this decade. I conclude with a review of the past 88 years of U.S. stock and bond markets.
2014-01-03 00:00:00 A More Market-Friendly China by Henry Zhang of Matthews Asia
My last visit to Beijing happened to coincide with the Communist Partys Third Plenum Meeting. General business sentiment was just as upbeat as it had been earlier last autumn. But through my discussions with different businesspeople, I came away with a distinct new optimism over the leaderships more market-oriented stance on policies.
2013-12-20 00:00:00 PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the Americas: Riding the Cross-Currents of Higher U.S. Growth and the Fed by Mohit Mittal, Lupin Rahman, Ed Devlin of PIMCO
In the U.S., lower fiscal drag and the possibility of higher consumer and corporate spending should drive growth higher in 2014. Supported by higher U.S. growth and stabilization in Europe and China, Latin America is set to grow 3%-4% on average, but with a large dispersion across countries. Canada should benefit from the U.S. recovery but will likely lag U.S. growth due to lower consumption and residential investment.
2013-12-13 00:00:00 Disruptive Innovations in Indian Politics by Sunil Asnani of Matthews Asia
The sweeping victories for Indias pro-business opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in recent state elections were largely expected. But more stunning, to say the least, were unexpectedly strong gains in Delhi by a nascent, novice and underfunded political party known as the Aam Aadmi Party, or Common Mans Party.
2013-12-11 00:00:00 AdvisorShares Weekly Market Review by AdvisorShares Research of AdvisorShares
In our last commentary, we noted the slow holiday week that did not provide us with much economic fodder. This week, the unemployment rate dropped to 7% and payrolls jumped more than expected. Third quarter GDP rose more than expected, and hit its highest mark since Q1 2012. Although the status of the U.S. budget remains up in the air, many expect Janet Yellen to maintain Chairman Bernankes accommodative policies. With the hectic holiday schedules nearing, it is difficult to predict what we will see this month.
2013-11-29 00:00:00 From the Taj Mahal to Westminster Abbey: Notes from a Global Investor by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
I recently returned from India, a nation where an incredible 600 million people are under the age of 25. That?s nearly double the entire population of the U.S.
2013-11-27 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary - October 2013 by Team of Thomas White International
Equities Gain as Currencies Remain Stable and Data Trends Show Positive Signs.
2013-11-26 00:00:00 Elections in Chile by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
On November 17, Chileans went to the polls to vote on a new president and parliament. In this report, we offer short biographies of the two Chilean presidential candidates, focusing mostly on Michelle Bachelet. From there, we will provide a short history of Chile, primarily to highlight the tensions between the forces of liberalization and reaction. An examination of the Allende-Pinochet period will detail the factors that have affected Chiles political structure over the past five decades. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
2013-11-26 00:00:00 Dig Deep - Then Dig Some More - to Uncover Risks in EM Corporate Debt by Shamaila Khan of AllianceBernstein
Emerging-market (EM) corporate debt returned big numbers for investors in recent years, as the sector rode a general wave of optimism about the future. But those days are gone. In 2013, successful investors have had to take a more painstaking path.
2013-11-25 00:00:00 Sir Isaac Newton by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James
In 1711 the Earl of Oxford formed the South Sea Company, which was approved as a joint-stock company via an act by the British government. The company was designed to improve the British governments finances. The earl granted the merchants associated with the company the sole rights to trade in the South Seas (the east coast of Latin America). From the start the new company was expected to achieve huge profits given the believed inexhaustible gold and silver mines of the region.
2013-11-08 00:00:00 Bubbles Without Borders? by Vivek Tanneeru of Matthews Asia
If you are a wealthy person living in Asia, you might be tempted, with good economic reason, to look overseas to diversify your asset base. Overseas markets often offer good diversification as they are typically exposed to different economic cycles and also give exposure to different currencies. But while overseas stocks, bonds and other financial instruments all offer diversification, few asset classes seem to have the same allure as overseas propertythat is, overseas property in the right cities.
2013-10-31 00:00:00 Third Quarter Letter by Team of Grey Owl Capital
Despite the recent shenanigans in Washington concerning funding the government and raising the debt ceiling, as well as the constant news coverage of the quantitative easing taper that the Federal Reserve may or may not begin, we are going to spare (at least for this quarter) both you and us another long discussion of these very real issues.
2013-10-25 00:00:00 Environmental Awareness in Asia by In-Bok Song of Matthews Asia
I traveled to China in September, quite possibly one of the best times of the year to visit in terms of weather. The air quality in both Beijing and Shanghai was actually pleasant and was very different from how it seemed during my previous visits as well as from the typical accounts one usually hears of the notorious smog in Chinas major cities. It made me think about growing up during the industrialization of my home country, South Korea.
2013-10-25 00:00:00 Why Growth is Deep in the Heart of Texas by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
TIME Magazine?s cover this week features an engaging collage of the 50 states reassembled to fit within the boundaries of Texas. With a growing number of solid-paying jobs, affordable housing, and low taxes, ?the Lone Star State is America?s Future,? declares economist and writer Tyler Cowen.
2013-10-18 00:00:00 Formosa: Back to Beautiful by Patricia Huang of Matthews Asia
When the Portuguese first landed on Taiwan, they called it Ilha Formosa or Beautiful Island. However, Taiwans route to success has been far more prosaicit rapidly industrialized by mass producing a wide range of consumer goods, including textiles and footwear, toys, bicycles, appliances and computer chips. It famously grew its economy via an export-driven model, making the Made in Taiwan label ubiquitous.
2013-10-18 00:00:00 Trying to Stop a Bull Market Has Risks by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
U.S. stocks have been on a tear. The S&P 500 Index has climbed a surprising 20 percent so far this year, as a global synchronized recovery takes shape and funds flow back to equities. As I often say, investors take risks when they try to stop a bull run, and plenty of data suggest you might regret taking that action this year.
2013-10-08 00:00:00 Absolute Return Letter: Heads or tails? by Niels Jensen, Nick Rees, Tricia Ward of Absolute Return Partners
Demographics captivate me. There are around 7.1 billion of us occupying planet earth today, going to 10 billion by 2050. I often think about how good old mother earth will cope with the additional 3 billion people we are projected to produce between now and 2050. More people translate into increased pressure on already scarce resources, but that is only part of the story and a story well covered by now.
2013-10-05 00:00:00 Pinch Yourself. U.S. Stock Markets Have Grown 145% in Four-Plus Years by Ron Surz of PPCA
Thankfully, 2008 has become a distant memory. Weve made back its 37% loss and a lot more. Things are good, but are they going to stay that way? We still face anemic economic growth, burgeoning debt, global social unrest and more. The S&P 500 has returned 145% in the past 55 months (4.5 years).
2013-10-04 00:00:00 New Experiment in Shanghai by Sherwood Zhang of Matthews Asia
In an attempt to further liberalize Chinas economy, central government officials have created an experimental new free trade zone, which officially opened for business this week. The zone combines four existing but smaller development areas within Shanghai that are already exempt from import and export tariffs.
2013-10-04 00:00:00 Is the Pump Primed for Emerging Markets Investors? by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton
The vulnerabilitiesor rather, perceived vulnerabilitiesof emerging markets have been the focus of heightened discussions over the past few months. Concerns about the health of emerging markets came on the heels of political upheavals in Egypt, economic deceleration in China and protest demonstrations in Brazil and Turkey this summer.
2013-10-03 00:00:00 PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the Americas: A Slow-Moving Fed Benefits Economies on Both Continents by Mohit Mittal, Lupin Rahman, Ed Devlin of PIMCO
PIMCO expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.0%2.5% over the next year. However, a continued government shutdown would be a drag on growth. In Latin America, we see growth picking up to 3.0%3.5%, but the outlook varies by country. Mexico should fare well, but Brazils story is more mixed. In Canada, we believe the housing correction will be less severe than many are predicting, and we expect GDP to grow 1.5%2.0% over the cyclical horizon.
2013-09-30 00:00:00 Fourth Quarter Outlook: A Turning Point? by Gene Goldman of Cetera Financial Group
It seems sometimes that the outlook for the global economy and the markets has been unchanged for years. Since the end of the recession, each year has commenced with forecasts that the United States economy would break out of its below-trend growth mode, only to see expectations dashed. Meanwhile, Europe has been mired in its own recession as it struggles with heavy post-crisis debt burdens. Growth has slowed in the emerging markets, ending the commodity boom of the first decade of this century.
2013-09-27 00:00:00 Bridging the Gap: Global Listed Infrastructure by Wilson Magee of Franklin Templeton
Simply spreading your investments across a smattering of asset classes with the idea that diversification should automatically produce a positive result is an approach thats maybe a little too similar to a roll of the dice. For investors hunting for classes to diversify into, Wilson Magee, Director of Global Real Estate and Infrastructure Securities, Franklin Templeton Real Asset Advisors, and co-manager of Franklin Global Listed Infrastructure Fund, has one word: infrastructure.
2013-09-27 00:00:00 Celebrate with Tokyo by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia
Many in Tokyo erupted with delight and excitement following the recent news of the citys selection as host to the 2020 Summer Olympic Games. Following a failed bid in 2016, Tokyo edged out rivals Istanbul and Madrid on its way to becoming the first Asian city to host the Games for a second time.
2013-09-27 00:00:00 The Weekly Speculator by Michael Shaoul, Ranita Ragunathan, Timothy Brackett, Brendan Moynihan of Marketfield Asset Management
We wrote last week on the eve of the FOMC meeting which resulted in the surprising decision not to reduce the current program of treasury and mortgage security purchases. What was to our eyes equally surprising was the volume and strident tone of the commentary that was issued following this release, ranging from the arrogant to the outraged as if anything really meaningful had changed.
2013-09-27 00:00:00 How to Profit from a Changing China by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
We believe Chinas rebalancing is positive for investors who selectively invest in its stocks. As Jim ONeill puts it, When a country is embarking on a significant compositional change to its economy, stock-pickers rather than index-trackers have the upper hand.
2013-09-13 00:00:00 Open for Business Down Under by Kenneth Lowe of Matthews Asia
Swiftly after fighting off what most observers deemed to be a fairly weak incumbent Labor opposition in the recent Australian election, the leader of the Conservative coalition and the countrys newly crowned Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, firmly declared Australia to be once more open for business."
2013-09-06 00:00:00 The Emerging Markets Debt Evolution by Giordano Lombardo of Pioneer Investments
My colleagues Mauro Ratto, Head of Emerging Markets, and Yerlan Syzdykov, Head of Emerging Markets Bond & High Yield, offered these thoughts on emerging markets.
2013-09-06 00:00:00 India - A World of Contrasts by William Hackett of Matthews Asia
Recently, I had the opportunity to join one of our Matthews Asia portfolio managers during a research trip to India, and was reminded of both the importance of such on-the-ground visits as well as the rigor required to conduct them.
2013-09-05 00:00:00 India and Indonesia by Team of Matthews Asia
Comments from the Federal Reserve to begin reducing its stimulus operations have weighed heavily on markets across Asia in recent weeks. Growing investor concerns have largely centered on those economies that have been running current account deficits and that are likely to be further impacted by lower growth forecasts and reduced capital inflows. More short term, speculative flows from investors into fast-growing Asian economies have also fallen as expectations for higher interest rates in the U.S. have risen.
2013-08-30 00:00:00 Ramen for Everyone by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia
Matthews Asias investment team members regularly travel across Asia to conduct research. Between meeting with management teams, touring factories and catching flights from one destination to the next, we do, on occasion, need to eat. Sometimes its room service at midnight while typing up meeting notes, other times we may try some local food. For me, as a ramen lover, the growing number of ramen restaurants across Asia has been a real treat. Apparently, Im not alone in that thought.
2013-08-29 00:00:00 Earnings: Just Good Enough by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett
Corporate profits arent exactly setting the world on fire, but the rate of growth should be sufficient to support further equity market gains.
2013-08-23 00:00:00 5 China Charts That Look Bullish for Commodities by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Over the past few months, investors have seen better economic data coming out of Europe. Consumer confidence in the continent has been rising, manufacturing data is improving and the fiscal situation is on the mend. Now, China appears to be strengthening as well, which could signal better times ahead. Below are five charts that look bullish for China and commodities. While not meant to be comprehensive, they do point to areas where investors might want to pay close attention.
2013-08-06 00:00:00 China's Slowdown by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
Over the past three decades, China has seen its economy grow significantly.
2013-08-01 00:00:00 Lack of US Economic Growth May Slow Fed Tapering by Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh Asset Management
While we are encouraged that the U.S. economy has been growing, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, for 15 consecutive quarters starting in the third quarter of 2009, we are concerned that the growth rate has been below that of previous economic recoveries and the economy appears to be stalling and struggling to get back above a 2% growth rate thus far in 2013.
2013-07-26 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary June 2013 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equity prices declined appreciably on heightened investor concerns over an early withdrawal of the monetary stimulus measures in the developed world. The most recent policy statement issued by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which was more optimistic about the growth prospects for the U.S. economy, and comments by Fed officials seemed to suggest that the central bank is preparing to wind down its bond purchase program.
2013-07-26 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust
Income inequality is rising, but its not clear what to do about it. Brazils struggles come at a delicate time. Detroits road to bankruptcy does not set a path for others to follow.
2013-07-12 00:00:00 Hasenstab: Emerging Out of the Consensus Trade by Michael Hasenstab of Franklin Templeton Investments
Just when is a potential long-term reward worth the short-term risk? Investors are often most focused on the short-term pain of a particular event (hard to blame them), losing sight of possible outcomes farther out into the future. That could partially explain whats going on in the emerging markets right now, at least according to Michael Hasenstab, co-director of the International Bond Department, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.
2013-07-12 00:00:00 Commodities 2013 Halftime Report: A Time to Mine for Opportunity? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
It was a challenging first half of the year for most commodities, with only two resources we track on our Periodic Table of Commodities Returns rising in value. Natural gas and oil rose 6.5 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while silver lost a third of its value and gold lost a quarter of its price from the beginning of the year.
2013-07-03 00:00:00 Getting Back to Normal by Douglas Cote of ING Investment Management
Though markets were whipsawed by the announcement, the Feds plan to step aside and allow normalization is a good thing. The primary risk to hedge is now economic growth and the strong equity returns it tends to produce not financial Armageddon. While risks in Europe and China persist, U.S. fundamentals look relatively strong. Its not too late for investors to move away from defensive positioning and back toward a standard allocation.
2013-07-02 00:00:00 Stay the Course as Mixed Signals Move Markets by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Traders stampeded out of gold, emerging markets and bonds this month, setting record monthly outflows in June. Ever since the Federal Reserve hinted in May that signs of a stronger economy could allow for a slowdown of stimulus, markets have protested the news.
2013-06-28 00:00:00 Stay the Course As Mixed Signals Move Markets by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
We maintain that gold is in extremely oversold territory and mathematically due for a reversal toward the mean. Yet when gold prices plummet, fear takes over and some investors forget the fundamental reasons to own gold: Gold is a portfolio diversifier and a store of value. It is a finite resource with increasing global demand.
2013-06-21 00:00:00 What's an Investor to do in Markets like These? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
What should an investor do after a day like yesterday? Stay calm and invest on, as I believe there is opportunity in picking up what the bears left behind. Here are a few ideas to ponder.
2013-06-18 00:00:00 The Snowden Affair by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
Over the past two weeks, revelations published in The Guardian and the Washington Post reported on a massive data gathering program that the National Security Agency (NSA) has been operating since 2001. The NSA, created during the Truman administration, mostly monitors signal intelligence and is the primary cryptographer for the U.S. government.
2013-06-14 00:00:00 The Evolution of Emerging Market Corporate Bonds for U.S. High-Grade Fixed-Income Investors by Todd Kurisu, Thomas Brennan of William Blair
Emerging market (EM) investment-grade corporate bonds are an important and growing segment of the core ?xed-income universe. These bonds have evolved to be more like U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds than high-yield or traditional emerging market debt (EMD) securities. This sector has demonstrated favorable risk, return, and diversi?cation bene?ts in the context of a broad market ?xed-income portfolio. Todays ?xed-income investors must have a framework for evaluating new opportunities subject to prudent risk management
2013-06-14 00:00:00 Looking for Growth? Go Small and Global by Liliana Castillo Dearth, Bruce Aronow of AllianceBernstein
In the hunt for growth in todays low-growth world, up-and-coming small- and mid-sized companies are a good place to start. But you need to look everywhere, from Indiana to Indonesia.
2013-06-12 00:00:00 Cyclical Stocks Appeal After Defensive-Led Rally by Vadim Zlotnikov of AllianceBernstein
This years equity market rally was initially led by defensive stocks, as macroeconomic concerns persisted despite improved risk appetite. With valuations in these sectors looking stretched and cyclically oriented stocks starting to rebound in May, is a bigger shift starting to unfold?
2013-06-12 00:00:00 Bond Realities: The Changing Landscape for Fixed Income and the Death of the Agg' by Andrew Johnson of Neuberger Berman
Earlier this year Andrew A. Johnson, Neuberger Berman?s Chief Investment Officer for Investment Grade Fixed Income, led a series of discussions with institutional clients about the state of the fixed income market and key ideas in approaching opportunistic fixed income investing in the current environment. Here, Mr. Johnson has adapted, and elaborated on, the concepts described at those meetings.
2013-06-05 00:00:00 Will Green Shoots Flourish in U.S. and Latin America? by Josh Thimons, Lupin Rahman of PIMCO
The US economy is much further along the road to repair relative to its developed market peers, but it is still dealing with an unsustainable fiscal situation. Latin America is closely coupled to the rest of the world. What happens in the U.S., China and Europe over the secular horizon is especially critical. Our secular investment outlook calls for a more defensive posture toward risk. In U.S. fixed income, this suggests positioning for alpha rather than capital appreciation.
2013-06-04 00:00:00 Wounded Heart by Bill Gross of PIMCO
Joseph Schumpeter, the originator of the phrase creative destruction, authored a less well-known corollary at some point in the 1930s. Profit, he wrote, is temporary by nature: It will vanish in the subsequent process of competition and adaptation. And so it has, certainly at the micro level for which his remark was obviously intended. Once proud, seemingly indestructible capitalistic giants have seen their profits fall short of everlasting and exhibited a far more ephemeral character.
2013-05-24 00:00:00 The Love Trade for Gold is Still On! by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
The more important demand for gold, in my opinion, comes from the enduring Love Trade, as countries like China and India buy the precious metal out of love and tradition.
2013-05-23 00:00:00 ING Fixed Income Perspectives May 2013 by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms, Mike Mata of ING Investment Management
How do you like them apples? By pointing out some Excel blunders in the data of Harvard economists Reinhart and Rogoff, a UMass-Amherst grad student appears to have gotten their number and in the process discredited their seminal work touting the merits of austerity. Though Good Will Hunting fans may be amused to see a couple of Harvardians get their comeuppance, you don?t need the titular character?s wicked smarts to deduce that harsh government spending cuts may not be the best way to pick up your economy.
2013-05-21 00:00:00 Capitalism and Democracy by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
In the Italian elections, the party that showed the strongest results was the Five Star Movement, led by the comedian Beppe Grillo. Despite this strong showing, the party failed to form a government and refused to participate in any coalitions. This decision not to participate in the political process has been exhibited by other protest groups, such as Occupy Wall Street, the Israeli Tent Movement, and the Spanish Indignant movement.
2013-05-17 00:00:00 Finding Opportunity Far and Near by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Would it surprise you to learn that a vast majority of equity valuation models state that stocks should head much higher over the next five years?
2013-05-16 00:00:00 Investors Living in Emerging Markets are a Bullish Bunch! by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments
Part of my job involves putting myself out on a limb at times, and I have taken the risk of being subject to contrary (sometimes enthusiastically so) viewpoints. Ive even been accused of being too optimistic about emerging markets, perhaps partly because my views often represent a stark contrast to dramatic news headlines. So when I took a look at the findings of Franklin Templeton Investments 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Survey (GISS),1 I was pleased to discover my longstanding optimism about emerging markets seems to be spreading among investors.
2013-05-14 00:00:00 Nouriel Roubini: Four Reasons Investors Should be Worried by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Despite a modest recovery from the nadir of the financial crisis, the global economy still faces tail risks, according to Nouriel Roubini. Roubinis forecast is not as gloomy as the one that earned the moniker Doctor Doom, when he correctly predicted the housing market collapse and the ensuing global recession. But, in a talk May 1, he identified todays biggest danger points in Europe, the U.S., China and geopolitics which he said threaten to destabilize the global economy.
2013-05-13 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review 1Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International
Weaker global demand and prices for energy and commodities, as well as softer than expected domestic consumption have restricted the growth outlook for most economies in the Americas region during the first three months of the year. Fewer monthly job additions in the U.S. have dented consumer confidence, and growth for the current year is now forecast to be moderately lower than earlier expectations.
2013-05-07 00:00:00 Niall Ferguson: Four Reasons Why the U.S. is Failing by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Niall Ferguson is the champion of anti-Keynesian economists. Last week, he explained why America’s pursuit of Keynesian policies is leading to disastrous consequences.
2013-05-07 00:00:00 Mutual Fund Companies Need to Prepare for a Changing Environment Fund Industry Turbulence Ahead by Paul Franchi (Article)
The mutual fund industry grew explosively from the 1980s on a rare tonic of a low-inflation credit expansion powered indirectly by international trade flows. That run reached a peak in 2008 when the application of quantitative easing (QE) served to prevent industry collapse with a softer form of transition, which continues today but must end when inflation returns.
2013-05-01 00:00:00 There Will Be Haircuts by Bill Gross of PIMCO
It has been the objective of the Fed over the past few years to make even more innovative forms of money by supporting stock and bond prices at cost on an ever ascending scale, thereby assuring holders via a Bernanke put that they might just as well own stocks as the cash in their purses. Gosh, a decade or so ago a house almost became a money substitute. MEW or mortgage equity withdrawal could be liquefied instantaneously based on a never go down housing market. You could equitize your home and go sailing off into the sunset on a new 28-foot skiff on any day but S
2013-04-30 00:00:00 Letters to the Editor by Various (Article)
A number of readers responded to Robert Huebscher’s article, The New Challenges to Reinhart and Rogoff, which appeared last week.
2013-04-26 00:00:00 An Update on the Global Business Cycle by Investment Strategy Group of Neuberger Berman
Understanding where we are in the an important aspect of investing, as the behavior of asset classes may vary throughout that cycle. Recent data indicate that the U.S. remains in its fourth year of expansion, but payroll and retail numbers have disappointed. Outside the U.S., Europe continues to be mired in recession while Chinas growth rebound recently has appeared to sputter. In this edition of Strategic Spotlight, we review what these developments mean for the global business cycle and how to position portfolios accordingly.
2013-04-26 00:00:00 The Yin and the Yang of Commodity Price Trends by Team of Northern Trust
In recent weeks, financial press headlines have centered on the sharp drop in the price of gold. Of greater importance, however, are the significant price declines of oil, wheat, corn and copper. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is down 6.1% year-to-date after a nearly steady reading in 2012 and gains exceeding 20% in both 2010 and 2011. It is essential to recognize the different nuances buried in these commodities price trends. First we will focus on the implications of declining commodity price trends and then discuss gold specifically in more depth.
2013-04-26 00:00:00 A Playbook for Investors: How to Shoot, Score, Win by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
So, in the competitive spirit of the NBA playoff season, I?ve gathered a series of plays that investors can use to shoot, score and win during this year?s market. I?m happy to say they include all the elements of an exciting game, including a comeback kid, an upset and an underdog.
2013-04-24 00:00:00 Europe's Sovereign Debt Problem: A Call for a Clear Destination by Andrew Bosomworth, John Henning Fock of PIMCO
Without political commitment to a common fiscal destination, the long-term instability and market distortions within Europes capital markets are likely to intensify. To preserve the euro, the eurozone must develop federal fiscal policies that tackle significant economic, cultural and societal differences and define a credible roadmap to achieving structural reforms, a banking union, political union and fiscal union. Historical precedents in Europe may help guide the way.
2013-04-19 00:00:00 F.I.R.S.T.: Bond Market Outlook by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms, Mike Mata of ING Investment Management
Amid heightened political uncertainty in Europe and subdued global growth expectations, global investors owe Hiroki Kuroda a big domo arigato for his pledge to inject about $1.4 trillion into the moribund Japanese economy by the end of 2014. The newly appointed BOJ governor?s unprecedented plan to buy Japanese government bonds,
2013-04-19 00:00:00 India's Gas Sector Dilemma by Siddharth Bhargava of Matthews Asia
In India, the fertilizer sector has long depended on gas as a key input. Over the last decade, several power plants that run on gas have been set up as well. Demand has grown 10% each year since 2002 while supplies, largely managed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), have failed to keep pace. Inefficient capital allocation, lack of incentives and populist policies aimed at maintaining low prices have led the country to import 25% of its gas needs. This has further exacerbated Indias current account deficit, which now stands at 6.7% of GDP.
2013-04-19 00:00:00 Gold Buyers Get Physical As Coin and Jewelry Sales Surge by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Even with the gold price dropping, why are gold coins selling at a premium? Its Economics 101: The coin supply is limited and the demand is high. This buying trend isnt only occurring in the U.S. In Bangkok, Thailand, for example, crowds of buyers were filling stores, eagerly waiting in multiple lines to purchase gold jewelry and coins.
2013-04-18 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Investment Bulletin by Team of Bedlam Asset Management
The benefits of focusing on attractively priced, well managed and growing businesses, irrespective of their inclusion in an index, continued to aid fund performance. Thus it was virtually flat in March, capping a strong quarter in absolute and relative terms with a gain of over 10%, again beating the 5% gain by the index. These - achieved through a combination of a valuation discipline that sets the entry and exit prices and the focus on quality businesses. Not surprisingly, stock selection has been a consistent factor behind the outperformance, both this year and previously.
2013-04-17 00:00:00 What's Driving Emerging Markets? by James McDonald, Daniel Phillips, Phillip Grant of Northern Trust
Emerging market (EM) equities have historically outperformed as the global economy gained momentum, as shown in Exhibit 1. After a great catch-up rally in the second half of 2012, the stocks finished the year as global outperformers only to lose that momentum in the first quarter of 2013. What is behind the recent underperformance, and what does it say about the outlook? Our research points to a number of contributors to the recent weakness.
2013-04-17 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equities corrected for the second successive month in March, on concerns that continuing weakness in European demand could hurt export growth for several countries in Asia and Latin America. These economies had seen a revival in their export fortunes during the second half of last year as U.S. consumer demand turned healthier. However, the moderation in U.S. consumer sentiment during March has somewhat dulled the optimism.
2013-04-16 00:00:00 The Asian Economic Crisis and the IMF by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management
In May 1997, a speculative run against the Thai baht became the first clear signal that a problem was developing in Asia. Over the next three years, Asia and other emerging markets, including Russia and Brazil, were rocked by a historic financial crisis. These nations recovered strongly in the following eight years and generally made it through the 2007-09 global financial crisis in relatively good shape. However, the impact of the Asian economic crisis remains a major factor in the behavior of these emerging nations.
2013-04-12 00:00:00 Asia's E-Commerce Evolution by Michael Oh of Matthews Asia
Korea and Japan have been trailblazers in terms of making the virtual marketplace platform, through which merchants and manufacturers of all sizes can sell goods to consumers, an e-commerce model in Asia. Unlike in the U.S. and Europe, where many retailers sell directly to customers from their own websites and handle the details of commerce themselves, most Asian e-commerce takes place on megasites or virtual markets.
2013-04-11 00:00:00 Global Investing in 2013: Policy Dominance, Active Management and a New Paradigm in Currencies by Scott Mather of PIMCO
We expect that the impact of ongoing global policy experimentalism on real economic growth and financial markets will likely vary substantially from country to country, creating both risks and opportunities. With flexible, active global strategies investors can potentially benefit from a broader opportunity set and the ability to go off benchmark in an effort to both avoid risks and tap opportunities.
2013-04-11 00:00:00 Emerging-Market Debt: Pure High-Yield Strategies Come of Age by Marco Santamaria of AllianceBernstein
We believe investors should be thinking about emerging-market debt in terms of credit quality buckets (investment grade or high yield) rather than sectors (sovereign or corporate). For some types of investor, pure high-yield strategies can offer significant advantages.
2013-04-05 00:00:00 Could Consumers Change Japan's Tide? by Team of Matthews Asia
This year, investor attention has focused on Japan and its macroeconomic policy with hopes that rising inflation expectations might spur businesses to invest and consumers to spend. Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Japans ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) regained power late last year and proposed more aggressive monetary policies, including an ambitious inflation target, the yen has weakened more than 20% against the U.S. dollar and more than 15% against the euro.
2013-04-05 00:00:00 China's Uncertainties Won't Stop Renminbi's Rise by Hayden Briscoe of AllianceBernstein
Recent data releases and the transition to new political leadership have created some uncertainty about Chinas short-term economic outlook. While positive growth surprises are unlikely in 2013, we still think nothing can stop the long-term appreciation of Chinas currency, the renminbi (RMB).
2013-04-04 00:00:00 Absolute Return Letter: The Need for Wholesale Change by Niels Jensen, Nick Rees,Tricia Ward of Absolute Return Partners
The seeds of the next crisis have probably already been sown as a consequence of the lax monetary policy currently being pursued. Frustrated with the lack of direction from political leaders, most recently witnessed in the handling of the crisis in Cyprus which was a complete farce, central bankers from around the world are likely to demand change, but politicians will have to be pushed into a corner before they will respond to any such pressure. Hence nothing decisive will happen before the next major crisis erupts.
2013-04-03 00:00:00 When Does The Great Recession Become the Great Rotation? by Gene Tannuzzo of Columbia Management
Given the strong flows into the bond market over the past few years, many pundits have pondered the beginning of the Great Rotation when bond investors begin to move money into the equity market. Investors fear that this shift could cause losses in bond funds as investors flee. Indeed since the start of the Great Recession in 2008, investors have plowed into bond funds as an alternative to equity volatility.
2013-04-03 00:00:00 A Man in the Mirror by Bill Gross of PIMCO
Am I a great investor? No, not yet. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingways Jake in The Sun Also Rises, wouldnt it be pretty to think so? But the thinking so and the reality are often miles apart. When looking in the mirror, the average human sees a six-plus or a seven reflection on a scale of one to ten. The big nose or weak chin is masked by brighter eyes or near picture perfect teeth. And when the public is consulted, the vocal compliments as opposed to the near silent/ whispered critiques are taken as a supermajority vote for good looks.
2013-03-28 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Investment Bulletin by Team of Bedlam Asset Management
The increases in the portfolios net asset value continue easily to beat the hardly exacting returns from the index. The fund has gained 10.4% gross for the year to date (to 22 March), vs. a 3.0% rise for the MSCI Emerging Index. This outperformance (replicated over rolling 1- and 3-year periods) has been achieved by choosing investments irrespective of index country or sector weightings or where they are listed, so long as they derive the majority of income and profits from developing countries.
2013-03-27 00:00:00 What Happened to That Export-Led Recovery? by Mike Amey of PIMCO
With nearly 50% of the UKs total exports going to Europe, an economic area constantly flirting with its own recession, it is no surprise to see that UK trade performance has been challenged.As the US continues to re-heal, and trade becomes more geographically diversified, we should see exports start to grow once more, albeit off a modest base. The easing in sterling is undoubtedly welcome and will improve prospects for exports, but it is unlikely to be a game changer.
2013-03-20 00:00:00 Global Real Estate StocksTime to Get Out? by Eric Franco of AllianceBernstein
Real estate stocks have now rebounded from the crash during the global financial crisis. But we think valuations are still reasonable, especially as property fundamentals continue to improve in key markets.
2013-03-19 00:00:00 Keeping Up With Changes In Emerging Market ETFs by Jun Zhu of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management
In this report, we highlight benchmark changes in a major player, a potential substitute (with cheaper fees) for another major player, a new player with an innovative weighting scheme and provide an overview of the Emerging Market ETF space available to investors.
2013-03-15 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equities saw a moderate correction in February, broadly similar to the rest of the world. Prices reacted negatively to renewed concerns of a worsening European fiscal crisis as the results of the recent Italian elections turned out to be inconclusive.
2013-03-15 00:00:00 Chinas Next Stop by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Would it surprise you to discover that China is planning to add 800 miles to its subway system over the next two years? Thats the distance equivalent to building a network from Dallas to Chicago in less time than the U.S. Congress can resolve a budget!
2013-03-12 00:00:00 U.S. Dominates World Markets for the Trifecta by Douglas Cote of ING Investment Management
While large-cap indices get all the headlines, mid and small caps have continued to excel. Frontier markets have picked up the slack as major emerging markets stumble. Global risks persist, though U.S. fundamentals appear solid. The move toward U.S. energy independence should soon result in a trade surplus, boosting GDP.
2013-03-07 00:00:00 80's Bull Redux by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors
We have thought for some time that the current bull market might be one of the strongest of our careers, and could potentially rival the 1980s bull market. Although this current cycles construction is quite different from the 1980s bull market, there are many aspects of this market that are curiously similar.
2013-03-06 00:00:00 U.S. Sequester: How Significant is it for the Global Economy? by Team of Thomas White International
Since the U.S. has been one of the brightest spots in the current global economic environment, any negative development that restricts activity in the U.S. could have a magnified impact on the economic prospects for the rest of the world.
2013-03-01 00:00:00 Greetings from Istanbul! by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
As I travel around Turkey, I am reminded how vital good government policies are to the health of a nation. Following a decade of fiscally responsible actions, Turkey is the picture of a growing prosperity. Perhaps Americas elected officials could take a tip from this vibrant country overseas.
2013-02-22 00:00:00 A Test of Strength for Gold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
This week, we saw the gold bears growling louder and gaining strength, as the worlds largest gold-backed ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, experienced its largest one-day outflows since August 2011. The Fear Trade fled the sector following the Federal Reserves meeting that revealed a growing dissension among some of its members over the central banks bond-buying program.
2013-02-19 00:00:00 Too Great Expectations by Richard Golod of Invesco
Global investors entered the year with newfound enthusiasm. Across the board, global equities traded higher in January, and retail money flows into global equities were the best in 17 years. Media reports about a "Great Rotation" from fixed income into equities are raising expectations about the possibility of a new secular bull market. However, I believe a little perspective is in order.
2013-02-15 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary January 2013 by Team of Thomas White International
International equity prices sustained the uptrend in January, helped by data releases that supported the growing optimism over healthier global economic growth. Though the U.S. and U.K. economies declined unexpectedly during the fourth quarter of last year, the pace of growth improved in several Asian countries, including China, during the period.
2013-02-12 00:00:00 The Milton Friedman Centenary: One Hundred Years of Surprisingly Little Solitude by Laurence B. Siegel (Article)
Milton Friedman was once a lonely voice for capitalism in a collectivist era, and seemed doomed to a hundred years of solitude. Instead, he arguably became the preeminent public intellectual of the hundred years that followed his 1912 birth.
2013-02-04 00:00:00 2013 Annual Forecast by Clyde Kendzierski of Financial Solutions Group
It's that time again. January will be over by the time you read this which means we are out of holiday excuses or "just ramping up for the new year" reasons for not getting back to work. Having said that, I'd like to offer my excuse for the Annual Forecast getting to you in February instead of the first week of the year. Hand over my heart, we started early this go-round.
2013-02-04 00:00:00 Bottom-up thoughts in LatAm by Nick Cowley (Article)
Nick Cowley, Fund Manager of the Latin American sleeve of the Henderson Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund, reviews the bottom-up opportunities he sees in Latin America in respect to both sectors and specific stocks. For example, across region the team favors the industrials and consumer sectors. He notes the Brazilian government is keen to improve the competitiveness of Brazilian industry and in Mexico, the industrial sector is seeing a wave of new investment.
2013-01-25 00:00:00 Resource Investors: Why You Can Expect Sunnier Days Ahead by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
During the current commodity supercycle, there have been occasionstoo many to countwhen investor psyche has been damaged by reports about slowing U.S. growth, a hard landing in China or a debt crisis in Europe. Yet just behind the gloom, significant and positive trends are taking hold, causing the storms to start dissipating.
2013-01-22 00:00:00 Ten for '13 by Investment Strategy Group of Neuberger Berman
Last year, despite the noise surrounding the U.S. elections and the ongoing European debt crisis, the main drivers of asset prices arguably were the large-scale bond-buying programs put in place by global central banks to alleviate systemic pressures. In 2013, we anticipate fewer aggressive central bank actions as the pace of global growth gradually picks up. We believe the largest influential factors to our outlook are premature fiscal tightening in the U.S. and a potential resurgence of eurozone problems.
2013-01-22 00:00:00 Latin America: Europe's Pillar of Strength by Team of Thomas White International
European firms are shaking off pressure at home through various business transactions in Latin America.
2013-01-17 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary December 2012 by Team of Thomas White International
International equity prices made robust gains in December, as further improvement in economic trends across most regions lifted the outlook for 2013. Policymakers in the U.S. managed to put together an agreement at the last minute and averted the 'fiscal cliff', one of the major risks that had restricted investor sentiment during earlier months. In Europe, though economic signals remain largely weak, the further fall in bond yields of the troubled countries has helped sustain optimism about resolving the region's fiscal crisis this year.
2013-01-16 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview - December 2012 by Team of Thomas White International
The global economic outlook brightened further in December, as economic data from most regions indicated sustained, though moderate, improvement in both domestic and external demand. Europe showed further signs of stabilization in the financial markets, as bond yields of the most troubled countries continued to decline in response to the earlier assurance by the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds.
2013-01-15 00:00:00 Demographics and the Decline of Equity Mutual Funds by Paul Franchi (Article)
Until the last few years, mutual fund flows followed performance. Recently, however, money has flowed disproportionately into bond funds and out of US equity funds despite a strong rally in the equity markets. Changing demographics explain this shift, which has important implications for advisors and the mutual fund industry.
2013-01-15 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: December 2012 by Team of Thomas White International
Emerging market equities outperformed during the month of December, helped by signs of further improvement in the economic growth outlook. Economic data released over the month were largely positive for most emerging countries, and strengthened the optimism that these markets could see a moderate improvement in growth rates during 2013.
2013-01-14 00:00:00 The More Things Change... by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab
One crisis averted...another one on the way? Of course, but we're still positive on the US economy and stock market.
2013-01-11 00:00:00 Special Edition: The Outlook for 2013 by Team of Northern Trust
At this time of the year we typically get warm and generous wishes for the New Year and, of course, numerous questions about what our crystal ball has in store for 2013. While many economists publish their perspectives prior to January 1, we opted to wait in the hope of having a clear fiscal picture for the United States. A lot of good that did us...
2013-01-10 00:00:00 A New Years Vantage Point: Michael Hasenstab by Michael Hasenstab of Franklin Templeton Investments
As we ring in a new year, it's a good time to gain some perspective on where we've been, and where we might be headed. In the first few weeks of January, Beyond Bulls & Bears will be featuring a series of investment commentaries from select Franklin Templeton investment management teams. These professionals provide their insights on the market ups and downs of 2012, and the potential challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead from their respective vantage points. Today we hear from Michael Hasenstab, portfolio manager and co-director of the International Bond Department.
2013-01-08 00:00:00 2012: Resumption of the Stock Market Recovery by Ronald Surz (Article)
Let's take a close look at the details of what occurred in 2012 so we can assess the opportunities and prepare for the surprises that 2013 will bring. I'll give you my opinions, and you should form your own.
2013-01-03 00:00:00 2013 Forecast: Good Economy, Challenged Markets by Douglas Cote, Karyn Cavanaugh of ING Investment Management
We enter 2013 bombarded by conflicting signals. While fundamentals have been mixed of late, longer-term themes our "tectonic shifts" like the energy revolution are gaining momentum and promising to make positive contributions sooner rather than later. And while salutary measures taken by policymakers have eased global risks and lessened fears of Armageddon, there is considerable work yet to be done.
2012-12-11 00:00:00 Loomis Sayles' Matt Eagan on the Macro and Fixed Income Outlook by David Schawel, CFA (Article)
In this interview, Loomis Sayles' Matt Eagan discusses the fixed income universe, Fed policy and issues facing the global macro economy. Eagan is the co-manager, along with Dan Fuss, of the Loomis Sayles Bond Fund and he manages the Loomis Sayles Strategic Alpha Bond Fund.
2012-11-06 00:00:00 Growth opportunities in LatAm: Beyond Brazil by Nick Cowley (Article)
Nick Cowley provides insight on the growth opportunities he currently sees in Latin America beyond those typically found in Brazil and Mexico. He comments on real GDP of Peru and Panama and the potential continued growth in those countries. He notes it can be more challenging to seek out exposure in these areas but that he is continuing to look at ways to tap into these exciting growth opportunities.
2012-08-13 00:00:00 Commodities to Power Emerging Markets Higher by Dawn Bennett of Bennett Funds
In Latin America, Brazil leads as a natural supplier of copper and crude oil, which it is now able to extract and export on competitive terms. Nations rich with natural resources perform well during times of global economic expansion. In particular, countries rich with industrial commodities tend to outperform those without.
2012-07-13 00:00:00 Chile at a Crossroads by Russell E. Hoss of Euro Pacific Capital
Chile's accession to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development in 2010 was more than just a confirmation that they'd earned the right to join the world's top ranked economies. As the first South American country to be accepted into the OECD, it was also a symbolic affirmation of several decades worth of market-oriented reforms that transformed the country from an illiberal backwater to what is arguably one of Latin America's most stable and thriving nations. As a result, we feel that Chile qualifies as a good choice for international investment.
2012-07-03 00:00:00 A Crisis Is Not An Emergency by Christian Thwaites of Sentinel Investments
Some crises linger for years. The sterling crisis began in 1964 and, despite periodic respites, was not solved until the early 1990s. The oil crisis burned for over ten years until the political and economic stars realigned and restored order. Latin America lingered for over ten years before a breakthrough of sorts...not for everyone though, as Argentina's GDP per capita is the same as it was in 1960. A crisis is not the same as an emergency.
2012-05-10 00:00:00 International Equity: Monthly Product Commentary April 2012 by Team of Thomas White International
International equity prices remained subdued during the month of April as concerns over the European fiscal crisis continued to cloud market sentiment. Accordingly, price declines were the greatest in Europe while select markets in Asia and Latin America outperformed. As expected, the economies of both the U.K. and Spain contracted during the first quarter, and underscored the mild recession the region is facing at the moment. Bond yields of some of the troubled countries such as Spain and Italy have increased in recent weeks, and investor response to new bond issues remains lukewarm.
2012-05-08 00:00:00 A New Economic Era: The Usual Rules No Longer Apply by Dawn Bennett of Bennett Group Financial Services
Against this backdrop of economic woes in the U.S. and Europe, business activity in Asia and Latin America is on the rise. The developing economies and emerging markets are where we see the better metrics, not in the US, Europe or Japan. One needs to look at the BRIC countries connection to commodities growth, and understand how they are getting on top of inflation. We believe China will lead the emerging markets in 2012. They will lean towards easing so their consumers will not be hurt by the less than healthy European export business as well as the weaknesses in the exports to the U.S.
2012-04-10 00:00:00 HBS Research: The Role of Business in Society by Michael Edesess (Article)
Many people believe that society needs to change for market capitalism to be sustainable - and it turns out a surprising number of business leaders are among them. That's the finding of a recent series of forums, organized by three Harvard Business School professors. Based on these discussions, the HBS professors advance a bold proposal - that business itself - not government, or even public-spirited nonprofits - should lead the charge to make the necessary changes to our capitalist system.
2012-03-19 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Product Commentary February 2012 by Team of Thomas White International
The renewed market optimism that surfaced towards the end of last year persisted in February as well, as emerging market equities again outperformed the developed markets. Though GDP growth forecasts for most emerging economies have been scaled lower for the current year and for 2013, it is widely expected that the risk of a further slowdown in economic activity is limited. Emerging markets in Europe and the Middle East continued to lead during the month, followed by Asia and Latin America. Egypt sustained its recovery during the month while Thailand, Russia, and Chile also outperformed.
2012-03-13 00:00:00 Europe's ?Back-door QE?: Good News for Global Bond Investors by OppenheimerFunds, Inc. (Article)
By restoring confidence in the global financial system, the European Central Bank's Long Term Refinancing Operation has allowed global bond investors to participate in attractive opportunities around the world.
2012-01-26 00:00:00 Peering Through Exxons Looking Glass by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
The emerging world will push global energy demand 30 percent higher by 2040, according to ExxonMobils Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. The report contains some interesting projections on what may be in store for the energy sector in the coming decades. The global population is expected to reach a staggering 9 billion over the same period, but it isnt population growth that will drive the increase in energy demand. Instead, rising affluence and higher living standards in regions such as Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and India will be the biggest factors.
2012-01-24 00:00:00 The Global Economic Outlook: Diverging Paths by Thomas D. Higgins of Dreyfus
The global economy can weather a mild eurozone recession, but is too fragile to absorb a severe financial shock such as a breakup of the euro. Higgins expects Central and Eastern Europe are likely to be most negatively affected by a eurozone recession, followed by the UK, the US and other advanced economies, given their respective trade dependencies. The least vulnerable regions would be Asia and Latin America. Long-term value in popular safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries and gold, preferring to focus on U.S. non-financial corporate credit as well as emerging market local currency debt.
2012-01-24 00:00:00 The Plain Facts by Herbert Abramson and Randall Abramson of Trapeze Asset Management
We believe that, while Europe will suffer a recession in 2012 on its painful path to recovery, with or without Greece, the U.S. and Canada will likely see accelerating growth this year, as will China, India and Latin America. In fact, global growth should be above 3%, supported by record high total household wealth in the world, which has doubled since 2000. China and India provide half of the worlds economic growth. And manufacturing in India and China grew in December and should continue to do so from renewed government stimulation.
2012-01-11 00:00:00 Aberdeen Chile Fund, Inc. Fund Manager Interview by Team of Aberdeen Asset Management
Chile has developed a middle class quicker than many of its Latin American peers and consequently, more robust domestic consumption trends. Chile has formed close ties with China in recent years and in 2005 became the first country in Latin America to sign a Free Trade Agreement with the Asian nation. Chile has proven to be a model to the Latin American region in regards to good corporate governance and transparency. Though Chile will not be fully insulated from the global downturn, the countrys longterm fundamentals remain sound.
2011-12-28 00:00:00 Backing Brazil and Avoiding Indian Inflation by Russ Koesterich (Article)
In his latest video installment, iShares Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich takes investors to Latin America and to explain why Brazil is his favorite spot in the region. But for investors who might be interested in India, Russ has some words of caution.
2011-12-23 00:00:00 Outlook 2012: Living In Interesting Times by Victoria Marklew, Asha G. Bangalore, James A. Pressler, and Ieisha Montgomery of Northern Trust
Setting aside the debate over the appropriateness of various policy directives, this Outlook considers which countries or regions are vulnerable as we head into 2012. Not surprisingly we start off with Europe, then go through the U.S., industrialized Asia, and Latin America, finishing with a brief discussion of the political powder keg that is the Middle East.
2011-11-05 00:00:00 Fund Manager Interview by Nick Robinson of Aberdeen Asset Management
The popular perception of Latin America as a region of weak political systems and economies is changing. Prudent fiscal and monetary policies have helped many countries stabilize their economies. The region came through the recent credit crisis relatively unscathed. Good-quality companies trading at attractive valuations can be found in the region. A local presence helps bolster our research.
2011-09-09 00:00:00 Brazil and Chile | One for Now, One to Watch by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog
Earlier this month, as part of my changed view of emerging markets. I initiated an overweight view of Brazil and noted that I am paying close attention to Chile. As promised, here are more of my thoughts regarding these two emerging market countries.There are a number of reasons why I like Brazil. First, from a valuation standpoint, Brazil looks attractive relative to both its own history and to other MSCI ACWI countries. I am not yet establishing an overweight view of countries in Latin America beyond Brazil, but I am watching Chile closely.
2011-08-23 00:00:00 A Fundamental Investment Strategy for Today's Environment by Robert Huebscher (Article)
We spoke with Tim Hartch and Michael Keller, who are co-managers of the Morningstar 5-star BBH Core Select Fund (BBTEX) from Brown Brothers Harriman. The fund's strategy is strictly bottom-up, with investments in established, cash-generative businesses that are leading providers of essential products and services with strong management teams and loyal customers.
2011-08-15 00:00:00 Americas: Economic Review July 2011 by Team of Thomas White International
Second quarter economic growth was weaker than expected in the U.S.. Canada is also expected to report slower second quarter growth, but may regain some of the lost pace by the second half. Slower growth in the U.S. will likely have a restrictive effect on economic activity in Latin America, especially in Mexico and Colombia, which have relatively deeper economic ties with the U.S. For the resource exporters in the region, the expected decline in global demand growth for commodities and industrial material is likely to be a dampener.
2011-05-19 00:00:00 Chart of the Week: Emerging Europe's Middle Class by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Middle-class, affluent, bourgeois - they describe a group of people who enjoy a comfortable life, have access to healthcare and, have discretionary income. And across developing nations, there is a growing group that are just settling in to this lifestyle. A few weeks ago we discussed how economic power is gradually shifting eastward and highlighted a McKinsey Global Institute report that showed China, Latin America and South Asia are projected to account for most of the middle class children by 2025. Those regions aren?t the only ones. A surging middle class exists in Eastern Europe as well.
2011-04-05 00:00:00 The Future of Investment Manager Due Diligence (and a Look Back at Q1 Performance) by Ron Surz (Article)
Despite the continuing global financial crisis, the uprisings in the Middle East and the Japanese disaster, global stock markets delivered positive results in the first quarter of 2011, as described in this capital market review. In the second part of the article, you'll discover what due diligence procedures need to change and why.
2011-03-30 00:00:00 Middle-Class Middleweights to be Growth Champions by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Over the next 15 years, the number of children in middle-class households in emerging market cities around the world may grow 10 times faster than those in developed countries. This future generation living in places such as China, Latin America and South Asia should drive the demand for goods and services, housing and transportation that extend beyond the basic necessities of life. In McKinsey's report, ?Urban world: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities,? the researchers focus on demographic and economic trends to determine which cities will provide the most economic growth in the future.
2011-01-11 00:00:00 2010: A Truth Odyssey by Ron Surz (Article)
I review some of the lessons learned in the last two years. I review the last year, discuss 2008's lessons, and conclude with my traditional review of the longer-term history of U.S. markets over the past 85 years.
2011-01-05 00:00:00 Things Are Looking Up in LatAm by Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics
In our 2011 Outlook, we revised up our growth forecasts for Latin America, in anticipation of resilient domestic demand, improved external conditions and elevated commodity prices. We now envision annual growth rates of 4.7% in 2011 (compared to the forecast of 4.1% we set in September) and 6.1% in 2010 from 5.7% previously. If we are correct, 2010 will mark Latin America?s strongest economic performance of the last decade and its fastest growth since 1980.
2010-12-14 00:00:00 Year-end Letter to Clients: Investment Advice from Winston Churchill by Dan Richards (Article)
For the past 18 months, my draft letters have been designed to balance some of the extreme pessimism among many investors with an objective, positive outlook - the draft year-end letter for 2010 continues with that goal. In it, I borrow from Winston Churchill's insight into the difference between optimists and pessimists.
2010-12-14 00:00:00 A Notable Year of Emerging Market Growth by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton
I view 2010 as a year of economic resurgence. Many emerging markets recorded strong GDP growth as they continued to recover from the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. In several cases, robust domestic consumption, government expenditure and intra-regional trade offset weak external demand from developed markets. This led many countries in Asia and Latin America to return to pre-crisis growth levels much faster than expected. China and India were among the world?s fastest-growing major economies during the year, with China overtaking Japan as the world?s second-biggest economy.
2010-11-24 00:00:00 A More Integrated Latin America by Claus Born of Franklin Templeton
Chile, Colombia and Peru are planning to integrate their stock exchanges, providing local investors with more investment opportunities and also allowing companies to access a broader investor base. We are likely to see increased foreign investor participation with improved liquidity. Once fully integrated, this new regional exchange should have the highest number of issuers in Latin America (before Mexico and Brazil), the region?s second-largest market capitalization (after Brazil) and its third-largest trading volume (after Brazil and Mexico).
2010-11-11 00:00:00 Leadership Changes in Latin America by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton
In Latin America, we are seeing a large and young population moving up rapidly to the new ?consumer? middle class, but at the same time having one of the lowest loan penetrations in the world. The rise of this consumer middle class and growth in per capital GDP is resulting in an increase in domestic spending, which drives the domestic economy. Secondly, the region has vast resources available at low cost.
2010-10-27 00:00:00 Convertible Strategy Q3 by David Baccile of Sextant Investment Advisors
Recent earnings growth stems from the economic leadership of developing countries from Asia to Latin America. When those economies soften, the recent improvement in earnings will be called into question. Meanwhile, with interest rates already at rock bottom, equity prices are even more susceptible to future earnings hiccups. The most profitable investment approach over the next several years will therefore be to reduce risk following periods of strong returns, and add risk only when markets have weakened sufficiently.
2010-10-07 00:00:00 Global Market Commentary by Monty Guild and Tony Danaher of Guild Investment Management
Inflation, which has heated up in countries like Brazil, India, Indonesia and many others, will eventually make its way to the U.S. and Europe. Attractive areas for investment include Chinese consumer stocks and currencies, stocks and bonds of growing countries in Asia and Latin America, U.S. stocks and gold. The Japanese yen is a short. Japan's quantitative easing, when combined with the QE going on elsewhere, provides a strong impetus for price increases in commodities, gold and stocks.
2010-10-05 00:00:00 A September to Remember by Ron Surz (Article)
In his quarterly market analysis, Ron Surz notes that September has historically been the worst performing month for US stock markets, losing 1% on average over the past 85 years, while the average return in the other 11 months was a positive 1.3%. Not so this September. Surz reviews global market performance and provides his thoughts on peer group analysis and target date funds.
2010-10-01 00:00:00 Liquidity Flowing into Asia and Western Latin America by Monty Guild and Tony Danaher of Guild Investment Management
Liquidity will flow into the Asian region raising consumer spending, stock prices and currency values. In the following countries: India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and China much new liquidity will enter. It will be in the form of foreign direct investment and investment money moving into stocks and bonds. With the exception of China, which is being singled out for a trade battle by the U.S. Congress, all of these countries will see their currencies rise and their economies grow.
2010-07-06 00:00:00 Stock Markets and a Sea of Change by Ron Surz (Article)
Ron Surz provides his award-winning market commentary, analyzing performance across global markets during the first half of this year. He also addresses several other topics, including the fiduciary standard, developments in target date funds, and distortions in style assignments created as a byproduct of the financial crisis.
2010-06-08 00:00:00 The First Thing We Do, Let?s Kill All the Quants by Michael Lewitt (Article)
In the latest issue of the HCM Market Letter, Michael Lewitt draws the parallels between the Gulf of Mexico oil spill and financial reform - both, he says, demonstrate our inability to learn from our mistakes. Lewitt also comments on quantitative trading strategies, economic recovery and the capital markets.
2010-06-01 00:00:00 Europe: Value or Value Trap? by Dan Trosch, CFA (Article)
European equities seem much cheaper than in the US, says Dan Trosch of Fortigent in this guest contribution. Europe trades at a 26% Price to Book discount and a 20% Price to Cash Earnings discount to the US. Some European industries and stocks are deservedly cheap and value traps; other industries and stocks are attractive and will benefit from global growth in exports and other macro trends.
2010-05-25 00:00:00 Ken Rogoff Expects Slow Growth and Sovereign Defaults by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Among the crush of analysis devoted to the financial crisis, perhaps none has been as influential as that of Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, co-authors of the book This Time is Different. Looking back at 800 years of data on emerging and developed economies, they showed that financial crises - and the recoveries from those crises - follow a highly predictable pattern, and the title of their book was a jab at those who suggest otherwise. Rogoff also spoke at the CFA conference.
2010-04-28 00:00:00 Focusing in on Latin America by Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor
Latin American economies will expand in 2010 after contracting more than 2 percent in 2009. Better global growth prospects and solid commodity prices will support growth in the region. Inflation will grow, but will remain within central bank target ranges, except in Mexico. Current account deficits will widen and surpluses will narrow as growth in domestic demand outpaces external demand. Wider growth and interest rate differentials, as well as a relatively weak U.S. dollar and solid commodity prices, will continue to support currencies.
2010-02-23 00:00:00 Jason Zweig on Protecting your Wealth by David Raileanu (Article)
Jason Zweig is a senior writer and columnist for Money magazine and frequently writes for the Wall Street Journal. In this interview, he discusses strategies for protecting client wealth, proper asset allocation, and the role of advisors in a fiduciary relationship.
2009-11-10 00:00:00 Roubini: Fed Policies are Destabilizing the Financial System by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Nouriel Roubini, the once-obscure economist who gained celebrity and the title "Dr. Doom" after correctly forecasting the financial crisis, believes that current Fed policies are destabilizing the markets and pushing the economy toward another collapse.
2009-11-03 00:00:00 Absolutely ? Maybe by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Since Putnam introduced its absolute return funds earlier this year, over 4,200 advisors and $650 million in assets have flocked to the new financial products. Putnam's four funds seek to beat inflation by 100, 300, 500 and 700 basis points, and their performance over their first nine months (3.1%, 6.4%, 8.4% and 12.2%, respectively) was encouraging for their investors. Impressive as those results may be, the question is whether they are sustainable.
2009-10-14 00:00:00 Latin America Economic Outlook by Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor
2009-10-06 00:00:00 So Far so Good: The Decrepit Decade Winds Down by Ron Surz (Article)
Ron Surz provides his award-winning market commentary, covering performance in the US and global markets, broken down by style, sector, and other dimensions.
2009-07-07 00:00:00 Riding the Stock Market Wave in the First Half of 2009 by Ron Surz (Article)
Ron Surz provides his award-winning market commentary, reviewing the first half stock market performance around the world. He looks at the past decade, to set expectations accordingly. Have markets become cheap enough yet? He concludes with a realistic and sobering look at our current debt problems - a cause for concern for both young and old.
2009-06-30 00:00:00 Letters to the Editor: The Road to Zimbabwe by Various (Article)
In the second set of our letters to the Editor, we publish responses to to our article, The Road to Zimbabwe.