ACTIONABLE ADVICE FOR FINANCIAL ADVISORS: Newsletters and Commentaries Focused on Investment Strategy

Follow us on
 Facebook  Twitter  LinkedIn  RSS Feed

    Last 14 days

Most Popular Articles

Most Popular Commentaries

    Last 12 Months

Most Popular Articles

Most Popular Commentaries

More on Related Themes

2015-11-30 00:00:00 Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview: November by Jill Mislinski (Article)

The Federal Reserve System consists of twelve Federal Reserve Banks, twenty five branches, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. Each bank serves a larger regional district. Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Here is an overview of all five with an overlay and average of historical data.

2015-11-30 00:00:00 S&P 500 Snapshot: November Closes with a Tiny 0.05% Gain by Doug Short (Article)

The final day of November was one of weak performance for the major US equity indexes, but the popular press found a positive spin, e.g., CNBC: "Stocks close lower, but post two straight months of gains." The S&P 500 hit its intraday high briefly after the open and sold off in a couple of waves to close at its -0.46% intraday low. As for the positive spin about two straight months of gain, it's a bit less impressive when you look at the numbers: The 8.30% surge in October was followed by a microscopic 0.05% squeaker in November.

2015-11-30 00:00:00 US Equity And Economic Review: Moderate Growth and Declining Earnings, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The BEA issued its second GDP report last week, increasing the 3Q GDP estimate to 2.1%. Real gross domestic purchases – a measure of strictly domestic demand – increased 2.8% Y/Y.

2015-11-30 00:00:00 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Second Consecutive Month of Growth by Jill Mislinski (Article)

This morning we got the most recent Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook. The latest index came in at -4.9, a 7.8 point increase from last month's -12.7. The forecast was for a reading of -10.0.

2015-11-28 00:00:00 Time to Bring Active Back into a Portfolio? by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock Investment Management

The value proposition of active management simply hasn't materialized in recent years. However, this could be changing. Russ explains.

2015-11-27 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Fractional Increase from Previous Week by Jill Mislinski (Article)

ECRI's latest weekly data point shows a fractional increase from the previous week's number and their latest feature commentary published earlier this week points key points on the current cyclical outlook.

2015-11-27 00:00:00 Exploring the Mysteries of Productivity by Byron Wien of Blackstone

Thousands of jobs in manufacturing and services have been eliminated by technology. This has resulted in favorable productivity figures over the last fifty years and sent profit margins to an all-time high, allowed the stock market to recover and increased the perception of inequality. Both corporate profitability and the standard of living are tied to productivity. If productivity is being properly measured and is, in fact slowing, it will have a profound impact on the future outlook for the economy and the financial markets.

2015-11-25 00:00:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment: November Final Survey Drops from Preliminary by Jill Mislinski (Article)

The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 91.3, a decline from the 93.1 November Preliminary reading. had forecast a more optimistic 93.1.

2015-11-25 00:00:00 Surveying The Commodity Carnage by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management

Commodities and commodity stocks have been a disaster in recent years, but fortunately one that our Group Selection (GS) Scores managed to avoid. Underperformance in both the Energy and Materials sectors during the last 12 months in particular (Chart 1) is so severe that any contrarian with a pulse probably can’t help but take a peek. We’ll admit the wreckage is beginning to look interesting, and—what with our cautious stance on the stock market—it would be fun to be bullish about something. But both our GS Scores and our intuition suggest it’s still too early.

2015-11-25 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: What are the Best Year-End Investments? by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

There is a lot of data to be reported in only three full trading days, but it does not rate to signal important economic changes. I expect plenty of participants to take the week off and even more will leave after the first hour on Wednesday. The punditry still has pages and air time to fill, despite the lack of fresh news.

2015-11-24 00:00:00 Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Slowed in November by Jill Mislinski (Article)

Today the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index dropped 2 points to -3 from last month's -1. had forecast an increase to 0. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at -3.0, indicating contraction.

2015-11-23 00:00:00 Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Improved in October by Jill Mislinski (Article)

"Index shows economic growth improved in October": This is the headline for today's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.

2015-11-23 00:00:00 Dispersion Dynamics by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Two types of dispersion are increasingly apparent in market dynamics here. The first type of dispersion is between leading measures of economic activity and lagging ones. The second is dispersion in market internals, particularly observable in a continued narrowing of leadership to a handful of “winner-take-all” stocks, while broader measures of market action across individual stocks, industries, sectors, and credit spreads show persistent divergence that suggests increasing risk-aversion among investors.

2015-11-23 00:00:00 US Equities: Revenue Is King in 2016 by James Tierney, Jr of AllianceBernstein

US markets are facing complex conditions. Stocks have been volatile. An interest-rate hike looms. Corporate profit margins have likely peaked. So what’s the right investing strategy for 2016?

2015-11-22 00:00:00 International Economic Week in Review; Bearish Tenor is Growing, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The news continues to move in a bearish direction. Although the UK and Australia are in decent economic shape, neither country is setting growth records. And on the bearish side, Mario Draghi stated the EU recovery is weak and may need additional stimulus while Japan entered a technical recession for the second time in two years. And all this is occurring at time when the global growth juggernaut of China is slowing. Overall, the scales appear to be more and more tipped in a bearish direction.

2015-11-22 00:00:00 US Equity And Economic Review: A Narrowing Rally, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The Conference Board reported the LEIs and CEIs this week: LEIs increased .6% while CEIs rose .2%. The only negative LEI component was the ISM manufacturing new orders index, which subtracted .05% from the total number. But two other leading manufacturing numbers were positive. Perhaps best of all, the average workweek of production workers added to the number. Three of four CEI components expanded; only industrial production contracted.

2015-11-21 00:00:00 What We’re Paying Attention to Following the Paris Attacks by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

A week ago today, 129 lives were brutally cut short when assailants affiliated with the terrorist group ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, stormed Paris in a series of coordinated attacks. Along with the rest of the world, we were shocked and saddened as the tragic news unfolded, worsening as the night progressed. Our thoughts are with the victims’ families and friends.

2015-11-20 00:00:00 Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior by Doug Short (Article)

The Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through September.

"Travel on all roads and streets changed by 4.3% (10.8 billion vehicle miles) for September 2015 as compared with September 2014." The less volatile 12-month moving average is up 0.35% month-over-month and 3.41% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is a smaller change, up 0.25% month-over-month and up only 2.23% year-over-year.

2015-11-20 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: October 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices rebounded strongly during the month of October as fears about a further growth slowdown in China faded and the U.S. Federal Reserve appeared willing to delay its rate hike until early next year. While exports from the country remain weak, domestic demand in China has so far remained resilient.

2015-11-20 00:00:00 The Truths And Myths of Buybacks by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

It's true that corporations buying their own shares (buybacks) have helped push asset prices higher. But much of what is believed about buybacks is a myth. There is much more to share appreciation than buybacks. EPS growth is overwhelmingly driven by higher profits, not share reduction. Buybacks are not a result of ZIRP or QE. Companies are not, as a whole, under investing in manufacturing or R&D or other sources of future growth because of buybacks.

2015-11-20 00:00:00 Kansas City Fed Survey: Back in Positive Territory by Jill Mislinski (Article)

The latest index came in at 1.0, which indicates improving activity. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey. The three-month moving average, which helps us visualize trends, is at levels last seen in February.

2015-11-19 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: November by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments

While China’s manufacturing sector—which drove China’s rise to its place as the world’s second-largest economy—has been losing steam, it is being supplanted by a domestic, consumer-led economy propelled by a rising middle class with growing income. Other Asian countries are on a similar trajectory.

2015-11-19 00:00:00 Economy Is Improving, Yet Most Americans Are Pessimistic by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

Today we tackle several issues. We start with the fact that several new surveys show that most Americans remain pessimistic about the economy and the direction the country is headed. This is despite the fact that the economy has been growing for the last five years, the unemployment rate is the lowest in seven years and the stock market has more than tripled since 2009.

2015-11-19 00:00:00 The Worst Recovery Ever? For Part-Time Jobs by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

Mark Twain has been attributed with saying “If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.” And given the media’s portrayal of the job market recovery over the past six-and-a-half years, we can see where he was coming from.

2015-11-19 00:00:00 Conference Board Leading Economic Index Rose in October by Jill Mislinski (Article)

The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for October is now available. The index increased 0.6 percent from September's 123.3. The latest indicator value came in above the 0.5 percent forecast by

2015-11-19 00:00:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Improves Slightly in November by Jill Mislinski (Article)

The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 1.9, up from last month's -4.5. The 3-month moving average came in at -2.9, down from -0.7 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook was up at 43.4, versus the previous month's 36.7.

2015-11-17 00:00:00 Equities Decline, But Long-Term Trends Look Positive by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities came under pressure last week, with the S&P 500 Index falling 3.6%, its largest pullback since late August. A number of issues contributed to the decline, including valuation concerns driven by the recent price rally and struggling earnings. Some negative earnings results from department stores and ongoing unease over Fed policy also contributed to souring sentiment. For the week, utilities was the only sector to advance, while energy, technology and consumer discretionary led the way lower.

2015-11-17 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: What is the Message from Falling Commodity Prices? by Jeffrey Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

Attention quickly shifted from the perceived strength in the monthly employment report to the stock market decline. While some blamed this on the expectation of higher interest rates, there was also plenty of focus on the commodity markets. I expect this interest to continue in the week ahead.

2015-11-16 00:00:00 Volatility Takes Center Stage in 2015 by Clas Olsson of Invesco Blog

Looking back over the last three to four years, global market performance has been driven mainly by quantitative easing, with little to no profit growth internationally. This, in turn, has led to significant multiple expansion. Market leadership has been driven by defensive stocks, such as consumer staples, as pricing power and emerging market demand for products and services helped them sustain growth.

2015-11-16 00:00:00 Empire State Manufacturing Declined for Fourth Consecutive Month by Jill Mislinski (Article)

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -10.7 (-10.74 to two decimals) shows a fractional increase from last month's -11.36, which still signals a decline in activity. The forecast was for a reading of -6.0.

2015-11-13 00:00:00 The Bullish Case for Aussie Gold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

There’s a gold bear market here in North America, where the yellow metal has plunged to a six-year low of $1,083 per ounce on the strong U.S. dollar. But when priced in the weaker Aussie dollar, the precious metal is sitting at $1,520. As recently as last month, it touched $1,642.

2015-11-13 00:00:00 A Rare Do-Over for Equity Investors? by Jay Leopold of Columbia Threadneedle Investments

While the market may still rally to new highs, the late August free fall in stock prices and spike in volatility served as a wake-up call for investors. In the past ten weeks, major equity indices have recovered virtually all the losses experienced during the August swoon. The recent rally gives investors a second opportunity to position their portfolio for an important inflection point in monetary policy as the Fed likely starts raising interest rates.

2015-11-13 00:00:00 Americas: Economy Trends Update October 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

The fall in energy and commodity prices continues to drive the divergent economic trends in the U.S. and other countries in the region. While the low fuel costs have supported the ongoing healthy U.S. economic expansion, the resource exporting countries in the region continue to struggle. Brazil remains in an economic recession even as political controversies have worsened the outlook for the country. The recent downgrades by the credit rating agencies have led to significant capital outflows from Brazil, making it difficult for domestic corporations to finance growth.

2015-11-12 00:00:00 The End of Fiscal Obstruction by Joachim Fels of PIMCO

Fiscal policy in the U.S., eurozone and Japan looks set to become (mildly) supportive for growth.

2015-11-12 00:00:00 Growth Will Pick Up by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust

At first blush, the economy’s growth rate in the third quarter (+1.5%) suggests a significant slowing of activity after its solid performance in the second quarter. However, doubts should be set aside, as it was largely a reduction in inventories that held back overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In fact, final sales remained strong. Headline growth should pick up as firms increase inventories in the quarters ahead.

2015-11-11 00:00:00 What To Expect From The Stock Market in 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

3Q financials have been predictably poor, and 4Q won't be much better. All else equal, 2016 should see a return to growth as the impact from lower oil and a higher dollar may become negligible. Especially for their rate of growth, S&P valuations are high. Even if sales and EPS growth start to pick up, valuations are likely to remain a considerable headwind to equity appreciation in 2016.

2015-11-11 00:00:00 Technically Speaking: Short-Term Bull Or Bearish Top by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

Over the last couple of weeks, I have discussed the entrance of the markets into the seasonally strong period of the year and the potential to increase equity exposure in portfolios on a "short-term" basis.

2015-11-10 00:00:00 Do Growth Stocks Still Have Room to Run? by Robert McConnaughey of Columbia Threadneedle Investments

While growth and value stocks have historically traded off leadership roles, we do not think that a decisive shift towards value is in the works. We think that investing in competitively advantaged innovators is extremely important and that the best defense against potentially disruptive changes is to invest in them. While we are always interested in value investing opportunities, we see the overall picture as continuing to favor truly innovative growth.

2015-11-10 00:00:00 Japan: The Quest for Growth and Inflation by Michael Hasenstab of Franklin Templeton Investments

Abenomics [in Japan] constitutes a true regime change and has already had a significant impact—but the road to sustainably higher growth and inflation is still long.

2015-11-10 00:00:00 Retired Investors: Apply a Value Investing Strategy and Earn More Income and Higher Returns by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs

Value investing produces safe, powerful long-term results, but it is often misunderstood. This is why most of the greatest investors that have ever lived have employed some form of value investing as an integral part of their overall stock investing strategy. However, the term, concept or strategy called value investing does not necessarily universally apply. Like many financial terms and concepts, there are many nuances that pertain to the general concept of investing for value in common stocks.

2015-11-10 00:00:00 Every Rose Has its Thorn(s) by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

On the tail of a bright jobs report, the likelihood that the FOMC will raise rates in December seems more clear, say Kristina Hooper. However, not everything is picture-perfect as the dollar is strong, global demand is waning and energy prices remain low.

2015-11-09 00:00:00 The Labor Market Conditions Index for October: Back Above Zero with Revisions by Jill Mislinski (Article)

The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. It is a dynamic factor model of labor market indicators, essentially a diffusion index subject to extensive revisions based on nineteen underlying indicators in nine broad categories (see the table at the bottom for details). Today's release of the October data came in at 1.6, up from a revised 1.3 in September. Upward revisions were made to the previous six months and two minor negative revisions in September and November of 2014.

2015-11-09 00:00:00 US Bond Market Week in Review: It Looks Like They'll Hike, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Despite the persistence of low inflation, the Fed will probably raise rates in December. This begs the question, why? A Bloomberg article last week provides the answer.

2015-11-07 00:00:00 Get Ready for Commodity Liftoff: Global Manufacturing Just Made a HUGE Move! by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

As Donald Trump might say: This is going to be huge.

2015-11-07 00:00:00 Bad News Is Good News, Once Again by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Central banks’ aversion to any downturn should support the current rebound in risk assets through the end of the year.

2015-11-07 00:00:00 The October Jobs Report Gives the Fed a Green Light by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

The first Friday of each month is filled with tension for those in my line of work. The U.S. employment data, arguably the most important international economic release that we receive, comes out on those days.

2015-11-05 00:00:00 U.S. Economic Growth will Strengthen in 2015 Q4 by Robert Lamy of The Forecasting Advisor

At the start of each month, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases data on the state of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries of the U.S. economy for the previous month. The data are closely followed by economists, portfolio wealth managers, and the financial media as they provide the earliest reading on the current state of the economy.

2015-11-04 00:00:00 We’ve Only Just Begun by William Smead of Smead Capital Management

Common stock investors are looking at an economic recovery in the U.S., which has not been interrupted by recession since 2009, and a stock market advance with temporary declines only in 2010, 2011 and in the summer this year. Since the declines in price have been something less than 20%, market participants assume that both the economic expansion and the bull market in U.S. stocks are “long in the tooth.”

2015-11-04 00:00:00 It’s the Zero Bound Yield Curve, Stupid! by Bill Gross of Janus Capital Group

I have been increasingly suspicious since late 2011 that Sir Thomas Gresham (1519-1579) may be the modern John Maynard Keynes. I said as much in a Financial Times op-ed when I wrote in December of that year, that the famous “Gresham’s Law” needs a corollary. Not only does “bad money drive out good money” but “cheap money” may do harm as well. Just as Newtonian physics breaks down, and Einsteinian theories prevail at the speed of light, so too might easy money, which has invariably led to stronger economic recoveries, now fail to stimulate growth close to the zero bound.

2015-11-03 00:00:00 6 Reasons To Be Bullish (or Not) On Stocks by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

In between inspecting my kids candy cache for "safety reasons," which is parent code for eating the Snickers bars, I read an interesting piece by Simon Constable via U.S. News.

2015-11-03 00:00:00 Central Bank Divergence Returns by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich discusses the impact of the return of divergent central bank policies on stocks and bonds.

2015-11-02 00:00:00 Bank Is not a Four-Letter Word by Jeremy Javidi of Columbia Threadneedle Investments

Since the Great Recession, banks have been a dirty word used by politicians and other pundits. However, banks play an important role in the economy. The pace of interest rate normalization will be slow and long, which should lead to an acceleration of credit, which will create a cycle of economic expansion. Our investment in commercial banks has been a welcome source of alpha, and we continue to be optimistic on the forward fundamentals for the U.S. economy and U.S. lenders.

2015-11-02 00:00:00 Small Stars Can Shine Bright by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

We have found that as an asset class, emerging-market small cap is one of the most widely misunderstood and underutilized among investors. It is often perceived to be a place to avoid in times of uncertainty, but we see things differently.

2015-11-02 00:00:00 Economic Review and Outlook by John Calamos, John Hillenbrand, David Kalis, Nick Niziolek, Eli Pars of Calamos Investments

The third quarter proved difficult for investors as apprehension about slowing global growth and monetary and fiscal policies converged. Volatility soared while equities declined sharply and commodities plummeted. Heading into the final months of the year, our positioning is cautious but reflects our view that the markets offer many opportunities, particularly among growth-oriented equities and convertibles, along with high yield.

2015-11-02 00:00:00 Only the Data Can Stop a December Fed Rate Hike by Scott Brown of Raymond James

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged last week. However, the wording of the policy statement was decidedly hawkish, suggesting (contrary to market expectations) that officials are leaning toward a move on December 16. GDP growth wasn’t especially brisk in the third quarter, but that was due largely to slower inventory growth. Domestic demand remained strong, but monthly figures suggest a loss of momentum heading toward 4Q15. Ultimately, the Fed’s decision will remain data-dependent and there are many reports between now and then.

2015-11-02 00:00:00 Curve Ball - Is the Yield Curve Still a Dependable Signal? by Michael Lebowitz (Article)

Although traditional yield-curve analysis does not predict a recession, other equally persuasive indicators do.

2015-11-02 00:00:00 ISM Manufacturing Index: Lowest Reading Since May 2013 by Jill Mislinski (Article)

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for October. The latest headline PMI was 50.1 percent, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month and above the forecast of 50.0. This was the 34th consecutive month of expansion but the lowest reading since May 2013.

2015-11-01 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review: Where's the Revenue Growth? Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

If the SPYs hit a record high, I don’t see it lasting, barring a change in the underlying fundamentals.

2015-10-30 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "Flagging Family Fortunes" by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives (

ECRI's latest weekly data point shows a fractional decrease from the previous week and their latest feature commentary published earlier this week highlights the declining median household income over the last couple of decades.

2015-10-29 00:00:00 On U.S. Growth: Near-Term Concern, Long-Term Optimism by Dr. Brian Jacobsen, CFA, and John Manley, CFA of Wells Fargo Asset Management

The global economic landscape raises near-term concern, but long-term optimism. Wells Fargo’s Dr. Brian Jacobsen, CFA, and John Manley, CFA discuss growth obstacles and prospects, as well as portfolio positioning.

2015-10-29 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: September 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equity prices declined further in September, as fears about slower global economic growth persisted. External trade data from China was weaker than expected and accentuated investor concerns that the world’s second largest economy could miss current growth targets. Nevertheless, retail sales in China continued to expand at a healthy pace in August as the central bank’s interest rate cuts and other policy measures lifted domestic consumer sentiment.

2015-10-29 00:00:00 Equity Investment Outlook October 2015: Global Growth Scare: Is it Warranted? by John Osterweis, Matt Berler of Osterweis Capital Management

During the third quarter, global markets were roiled by heightened investor uncertainty and downright fear that China’s slowing economic growth might tip the global economy into recession. The selling pressure that took hold in mid-August had all the elements of a mini panic. The only assets that held their value or posted gains were cash and investment grade bonds. The further out one looked on the risk spectrum, the worse the decline.

2015-10-28 00:00:00 Six Key Signals for the U.S. Economy by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Good news and bad news: Here are four reasons why an economic downturn now is unlikely—and two reasons why a sudden pickup is equally unlikely.

2015-10-28 00:00:00 Under the Tuscan Sun by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Obviously we are back, back from two weeks in Tuscany with 32 of our best and dearest friends. The group included industrialists, the heads of European operations for two of the largest clothing/shoe companies in the world, an L.A.-based reality TV producer, tax attorneys, the CEO of a large title insurance company . . . well, you get the idea.

2015-10-28 00:00:00 Schwab Market Perspective: Bulls, Bears…and Hippos? by Liz Ann Sonders Brad Sorensen Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

When trying to describe our view of the market, we realized that bullish and bearish were quite limiting and could cause confusion. Bullish, for example, could mean anything from skyrocketing markets to very modest gains—one word, very different environments. So, we are introducing a new animal descriptor that should more accurately describe our view of the stock market—the hippo. While not initially obvious, we think this is the perfect descriptor, and who doesn’t love hippos?

2015-10-27 00:00:00 The Fed's Dilemma by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate rise history reveals a familiar dilemma—previous delays led to inflated asset prices and recessions.

2015-10-26 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Put the Brakes on the Breakout? by Jeffrey Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

The week ahead is loaded with data reports and earnings news. The FOMC has another meeting and rate decision. It occurs in the context of a nice stock rebound. The punditry will be asking: Will the Fed put the brakes on the breakout?

2015-10-23 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: October by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments

Overall, while there are plenty of ‘problem children’ in the emerging-market space, there are undoubtedly assets and currencies being beaten down by broad-brush assessments of economic prospects that merit renewed attention.

2015-10-23 00:00:00 Follow the Leaders: Learning from ETFs, BCA and the New PM by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Yesterday I had the pleasure of attending an intensive daylong ETF conference in Austin, just up the road from our office in San Antonio. Hosted by Cantor Fitzgerald, the conference was designed for institutional investors.

2015-10-22 00:00:00 Four Strategies for Navigating the Equity Environment Ahead by Andrew Pyne of PIMCO

Recent market turmoil suggests we could be at a turning point for equities. After several years of high returns and low volatility as the market rebounded off the lows of 2009, supported by unprecedented monetary policies, investors are faced with broadly full valuations, global growth that is still uneven and the prospect of rising rates in the U.S. In this environment we suggest four simple approaches that could enhance returns while potentially reducing risk.

2015-10-22 00:00:00 Global Economic Outlook - October 2015 by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew, Ieisha Montgomery, Marshall Birkey, Ben Trinder of Northern Trust

It has been a challenging interval for the world economy. The summer saw challenges in Greece, heightened uncertainty over China and renewed concern over emerging markets. At its recent meetings, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further downgraded its outlook for global growth.

2015-10-22 00:00:00 The US Bond Market: A Welcome "Nonstory" During August's Turmoil by Payson Swaffield of Eaton Vance

Overall, the bond market functioned relatively well in the risk-off month of August – it did its job in reflecting relative value among sectors.

2015-10-21 00:00:00 An Important Rebalancing Milestone by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia

Third quarter macroeconomic data shows that Chinese consumers shrugged off the A-share market fall, with a small acceleration in spending. While many headlines may declare that China’s 6.9% GDP growth was the slowest since 2009, it should be noted that this pace of growth was on a base that is about 300% bigger than it was a decade ago (when GDP growth was 10%), meaning that the incremental expansion in China’s economy this year is about 60% bigger than it was back in the day.

2015-10-21 00:00:00 On My Radar: Lucy, Charlie Brown and the Fed by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group

All over the world, all eyes are zeroed in on the Fed. No pun intended.

2015-10-19 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Strong Housing Data Give An "All Clear" Signal for the U.S. Economy? by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

It is a very unusual week for data, with many of the major housing reports on tap and not much else. China’s GDP will be a big story over the weekend, and important earnings news will continue. Despite this, pundits will turn their attention to housing, asking: Can a housing rebound signal “all clear” for the U.S. economy?

2015-10-19 00:00:00 3 Recession Signposts to Watch by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

Worried the U.S. is on the cusp of another recession? Russ shares the economic indicators worth paying attention to.

2015-10-17 00:00:00 Charting the Market's Course by Burt White, Jeffrey Buchbinder of LPL Financial

This week we highlight seven key charts to watch that may determine the stock market’s near-term direction. The charts cover a wide range of topics including manufacturing sentiment, earnings, oil, and high-yield bonds. We believe these charts can help investors navigate the market’s course for the balance of 2015 and into 2016.

2015-10-17 00:00:00 Third Quarter 2015 Economic & Capital Market Summary by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

On the one hand, the domestic economic story is playing out pretty much as we had thought. Economic growth is muddling along in the 2% area. The unemployment rate is low, but job growth is still limited to service sector jobs which pay lower wages. Inflation is barely rising as commodity prices continue to plunge and wage growth has been flat. The Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates, but has deferred making the first increase in over nine years under pressure from global economies who fear that an increase in short term interest rates will impair the fragile global growth.

2015-10-17 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust

Wealth Has Different Effects in Different Places; Our Good Fortune with Health Care Costs May Soon End; The Nobel Prize Rewards Digging into the Details

2015-10-17 00:00:00 Will Gold Finish 2015 with a Gain? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

After its stellar performance this week, gold might do something it hasn’t done since 2012—that is, end the year in positive territory. You can see past returns for yourself in our perennially popular Periodic Table of Commodities Return.

2015-10-16 00:00:00 Market Overview Q315 by David Robertson of Arete Asset Management

Turmoil in the third quarter signaled some important changes that are going to require investors adopt new playbooks in order to succeed.

2015-10-16 00:00:00 Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 3Q2015 by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

Future business activity will reflect two economic realities: 1) the over-indebted state of the U.S. economy and the world; and 2) the inability of the Federal Reserve to initiate policies to promote growth in this environment.

2015-10-15 00:00:00 Gauging Global Growth: An Update for 2015 & 2016 by John Canally of LPL Financial

The market continues to expect that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will accelerate in 2015 (3.0%), 2016 (3.4%), and 2017 (3.4%) from 2014’s 2.0% pace, aided by lower oil prices and stimulus from two of the three leading central banks in the world.

2015-10-13 00:00:00 US Bond Market Week in Review: When Doves Cry, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The latest Fed Minutes noted the US is still in fairly good shape. The US consumer continues spending, unemployment is low, retail sales are expanding moderately, and purchases of durables goods (vehicles and houses) are positive. The primary negative is weak wage growth. But the strong dollar, weak overseas economies and slowdown in the oil patch is hurting the manufacturing sector.

2015-10-13 00:00:00 4 Warnings And Why You Should Pay Attention by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn't until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books, but through experience.

2015-10-13 00:00:00 U.S. Economy: Have We Defused the Debt Bomb? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Governments, businesses, and consumers have had some success in deleveraging since the 2008–09 financial crisis, but the improvement has been uneven.

2015-10-12 00:00:00 International Economic Week in Review: Now the IMF Lowers Growth Projections, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

This week, it was the IMFs turn to downgrade their global growth projections, which they did on October 6: The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) foresees lower global growth compared to last year, with modest pickup in advanced economies and a slowing in emerging markets, primarily reflecting weakness in some large emerging economies and oil-exporting countries.

2015-10-12 00:00:00 Smart Beta 2.0: A Disruptive Innovation by Steven Vannelli of GaveKal Capital

At the beginning of every major disruptive innovation, fear, uncertainty and doubt reign supreme. Consumers are fearful of the unknown, uncertain of the benefits and doubt the durability of the innovation. But, in the end, fear, uncertainty and doubt give way to confidence, understanding and acceptance. The fund management industry is on the cusp of a major disruptive innovation.

2015-10-10 00:00:00 Fourth Quarter Comeback? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

A disappointing year to this point for the US stock market has a chance to end on a better note, with good seasonality and a still-growing economy as supports. Consumers are in good shape, the Fed remains accommodative, and the much-larger service side of the US economy is still healthy. But Fed uncertainty, Congressional budget battles, and Chinese growth concerns will remain as headwinds and will likely contribute to continued bouts of volatility. Across the pond, the European fight against deflation appears to be working, although more QE may be needed, to the potential benefit of Europe/

2015-10-09 00:00:00 Unemployment Claims Pointing To Further Economic Expansion by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital

We have been on the hunt for economic data that indicates that the US may be on the cusp of a recession. So far in our journey, outside of the manufacturing sector which accounts for only about 12% of the US economy, the data seems to indicate that there is further expansion ahead. While it is just one data point, initial unemployment claims seems to be one of the strongest indications that a recession is not imminent.

2015-10-09 00:00:00 Facts and Fear by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust

The economic headlines have been somewhat disappointing over the past few weeks. First, the Federal Reserve failed to raise interest rates in September, partly out of fear that global conditions were eroding. Congress seems headed for another senseless impasse over the debt ceiling. Emerging markets are feeling added pressure. And some think the U.S. job engine has shifted into a lower gear.

2015-10-07 00:00:00 Where's the Capital Spending Recovery? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Companies, awash in cash, remain reluctant to invest in new plants and equipment. That could hamper long-term U.S. economic growth.

2015-10-06 00:00:00 Money Glut: More to Come, Still Effective by Joachim Fels of PIMCO

Given global lowflation pressures, the central-bank-fueled money glut is likely to increase further before year-end.

2015-10-06 00:00:00 Under Pressure: Earnings Recession Warning; Economic Recession Watch by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Many of the questions I’ve been getting recently at client events are around earnings, and whether the expected move into negative territory for earnings growth is a signal of a pending economic recession.

2015-10-05 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For Sep. 28-Oct 2; The Bull Needs Stronger Earnings, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

This week’s economic news was mostly positive. Manufacturing is still expanding and consumers are still spending, especially on durable goods. But the stronger dollar and weaker international environment are clearly taking their toll, as the ISM is just barely in expansionary territory. The markets are in somewhat precarious shape as we enter earnings season; they remain expensive and therefore need to see topline revenue growth. Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be coming.

2015-10-05 00:00:00 The Looming Risk in the Bond Market by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Lack of bond-market liquidity has been the focus of recent reporting in the financial media. But one of the first to warn about that danger was Michael Aronstein, who said last week that the risks are clearer than ever. Mutual fund investors face the greatest peril.

2015-10-05 00:00:00 The Bull Market Still Lives by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

Stock market corrections (usually defined as 10% pullbacks) are hard to understand. Often they happen in the midst of long-term bull markets. But why? Is it like getting the flu? Is it just emotion? Or, are corrections a necessary cleansing out of excess optimism? Our answer: we don't really know.

2015-10-05 00:00:00 US Bond Market Week in Review; Did the Window Close, Edition? by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

A rate hike of at least 25 basis points was a done deal a few months ago. But recent global and domestic events have greatly lowered that possibility. It began with the Chinese equity sell-off followed by the surprise yuan devaluation. Recent Chinese manufacturing weakness adds to the mix. Although some recent US news has been positive, continued price weakness, lower industrial production and a recent employment slowdown show the US is not immune to the slowing international environment.

2015-10-05 00:00:00 U.S. Economic Growth Slowed Sharply in 2015 Q3 by Robert Lamy of The Forecasting Advisor

At the start of each month, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases data on the state of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries of the U.S. economy for the previous month. The data are closely followed by economists, portfolio wealth managers, and the financial media as they provide the earliest reading on the current state of the economy.

2015-10-03 00:00:00 Better Times are Ahead by Byron Wien of Blackstone

The best recent period for investing in equities may have been 1982–1999, but I still think reasonable risk-adjusted returns for equities are likely in the years ahead, and that Treasurys and high-quality corporate bonds are less attractive.

2015-10-01 00:00:00 A Fragile Transition Supported by (Further) Policy Accommodation by Adam Bowe, Isaac Meng, Tadashi Kakuchi of PIMCO

n the following interview, Portfolio Managers Adam Bowe, Isaac Meng and Tadashi Kakuchi discuss conclusions from PIMCO’s quarterly Cyclical Forum, in which the company’s investment professionals debated the outlook for global economies and markets. They share our views on economies and investment implications across the Asia-Pacific region over the next 12 months.

2015-10-01 00:00:00 It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over by Burt White of LPL Financial

Yogi Berra passed away last week at the age of 90. One of the greatest baseball players of all time, Berra was probably known more for his funny sayings (so-called “Yogi-isms”) than he was for his impressive career as a New York Yankee that lasted from 1946 until 1963 and included 3 MVP awards and 10 World Series championships. Some of these Yogi-isms are relevant for investors, including: 1) it ain’t over ‘til it’s over, 2) déjà vu all over again, and 3) the future ain’t what it used to be. Berra also famously once said, “Make a game plan you can stick to…unless it’s not w

2015-10-01 00:00:00 Recent Volatility Signals a Market in Transition by Chuck Royce, Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds

CEO Chuck Royce and Co-CIO Francis Gannon talk about why they believe the decline for equities in 3Q15 is part of the market transitioning back to more historically typical performance patterns, why a rate hike could be positive for small-caps and stocks as a whole, how history reveals the importance of discipline, the necessity of diversification within the small-cap asset class, and more.

2015-09-29 00:00:00 Annual Outlook by Mary Ellen Stanek of Baird Advisors

In an environment of low rates and heightened uncertainty, the U.S. has experienced sub-par growth during this economic cycle relative to past expansions. But compared to the rest of the world, the U.S. has been a strong performer. And even with only moderate growth, the U.S. economy has experienced healthy job creation – 11 million jobs since the bottom of the recession, 3 million created last year, the highest since 1999, and 2.5 million this year.

2015-09-29 00:00:00 On My Radar: It’s Déjà vu All Over Again by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group

What scares me, or what worries me, is what the next downturn in the economy looks like, with asset prices where they are and a lesser ability of central banks to ease monetary policy.” – Ray Dalio with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene

2015-09-28 00:00:00 The ABCs of Impact Investing by John Appleby (Article)

Impact investing is a small but growing segment of the financial landscape. It is coming to the fore as individual investors seek to “do good while doing good.” Groups from wealthy entrepreneurs to the G8, the UN and the Pope are talking about the subject. Here’s what advisors need to know if they want to serve clients who strive for “impact” with their investing.

2015-09-28 00:00:00 The Hidden Cost of Zero Interest Rate Policies by Laurence B. Siegel and Thomas S. Coleman (Article)

Zero interest rates are a massive transfer of wealth from investors and savers to governments and other borrowers around the world. We’ll show how big the scale of the transfer is.

2015-09-25 00:00:00 Developed Europe: Economy Trends Update July 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

Euro-zone Sustains Recovery on the Back of Robust Growth in Italy, Export Surge in Germany

2015-09-25 00:00:00 In Search of the Phillips Curve by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Macroeconomics students spend a good bit of class time learning about the Phillips curve, and it is probably etched permanently in their minds. The Phillips curve suggests that there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run.

2015-09-25 00:00:00 Are the Bulls Regaining Their Footing? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve continues after its punt of rate hikes at its most recent meeting. But as the market gets more clarity on monetary policy and given a still-growing US economy, the bull market should slowly reestablish itself, albeit with bouts of volatility. Further support should come from global growth in areas that are net beneficiaries of the plunge in commodity prices.

2015-09-25 00:00:00 How Will These Leaders of 4 Billion People Change the World? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

This week the U.S. played host to three prominent and illustrious leaders to billions of people: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pope Francis. Among them, they lead—either politically or spiritually—nearly 4 billion people worldwide, more than half of everyone living on the planet right now.

2015-09-25 00:00:00 The Case for Credit by Mark Kiesel of PIMCO

Three reasons why the outlook for developed credit markets remains constructive.

2015-09-24 00:00:00 Fed Implications by Burt White of LPL Financial

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision not to raise interest rates at its September 17 policy meeting was undoubtedly the biggest event of last week. Although not a big surprise, besides Donald Trump (and perhaps China), the Fed is all that anyone is talking about these days. This week we share some of our perspective on what the Fed’s decision may mean for the stock market and offer some investment ideas.

2015-09-23 00:00:00 Logical Song: What to Make of Record Buybacks by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

A common question I’ve been getting at client events lately is about stock buybacks and the effect they’re having on earnings-per-share (EPS); as well as what they say about the economy overall and investor/business psychology.

2015-09-22 00:00:00 On My Radar: “Dammit Janet” by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group

Whatever you can do, or dream you can… begin it; boldness has genius, power and magic in it.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

2015-09-22 00:00:00 Meet Jeremy Corbyn by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management

On September 12, Jeremy Corbyn, a longtime Member of Parliament, was elected as the new leader of the UK’s Labour Party. In this report, we begin with a short biography of Corbyn followed by a description of how he won his party’s leadership role. With this background, we explore Corbyn’s long held policy positions and their potential impact on UK policy. We offer our reflections on Corbyn’s win, including an examination within the context of other political developments in the West. As always, we conclude with potential market ramifications.

2015-09-21 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For Sept. 14-18; Weak 3Q Numbers On the Horizon, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The U.S.’ immunity to international economic weakness continues. In their latest policy statement, the Fed once again described U.S. growth as “moderate.” With the exception of industrial production, this week’s economic releases confirm that assessment.

2015-09-21 00:00:00 Equities Fall After the Fed Fails to Raise Rates by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities were little changed last week, with the S&P 500 declining 0.1%. Stocks posted gains early in the week before falling on Thursday and Friday after the Federal Reserve announced it would hold rates steady. For the week, utilities, consumer staples and health care outperformed, while materials, telecommunications and financials came under pressure.

2015-09-19 00:00:00 Here Are Two Ways Investors Can Take Advantage of the Fed's Uncertainty by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Although interest rates could still be hiked in one of the two remaining times the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this year, I’m inclined to think they’ll stay near zero until at least 2016. The decision is a welcome one for both gold demand and new home purchases. When rates rise, gold becomes less attractive for some investors, who are encouraged to exchange their no-yielding gold for income-producing assets.

2015-09-19 00:00:00 Upon Further Review: More Reflections on the Fed by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

The Federal Reserve has typically downplayed market expectations of inflation. These indicators emerge from trading in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which can be influenced by many things.

2015-09-19 00:00:00 Annual Outlook Address by Mary Ellen Stanek of Baird Advisors

The uncertainty caused by speculating on when the Fed will raise rates is almost worse that the move itself. We think the Fed needs to forecast where the U.S. economy will be in terms of full employment and inflation a year or two down the road given the long and variable lags of the impact of their policy changes. We think they have been too optimistic in terms of the expected growth of the economy.

2015-09-19 00:00:00 Merkel Opens the Gates by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

This is all well and good for nations like Germany that need immigrants, but much of Europe is really not in need of new workers, given their present severe unemployment problems. Not to mention that in those countries budgets are already strained and taking on the task of housing tens of thousands of immigrants and refugees is not cheap.

2015-09-18 00:00:00 Japan Then and Now by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia

Late in 2006, Matthews Asia was wrapping up a special report titled “Japan Reawakens.” The timing of that AsiaNow publication, just ahead of the Global Financial Crisis, was unfortunate to say the least. With the ensuing economic turmoil, Japan fell asleep again, sliding off the radar screens of many investors. But as interest in Japan has more recently re-emerged, I thought it would be important for us to take a look back and consider what we previously published. Has Japan evolved the way we had envisioned? What’s changed and what hasn’t?

2015-09-17 00:00:00 More Volatility on U.S. Horizon Has Sights Turning to Asia by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

After weeks of struggling, global equities stabilized last week. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index rose 2.08% to 1,961, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.05% to 16,433, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index advanced an even stronger 2.97% to end the week at 4,822. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 2.13% to 2.19%, as its price correspondingly fell.

2015-09-17 00:00:00 Does a Higher Retirement Bogey Call for a Different Club? by Jeff Middleswart of Ranger International

Recent research suggests the rule of thumb 4% distribution rate is far too high. If true, savers may want to consider adding dividend paying stocks to their portfolios.

2015-09-16 00:00:00 The Fed's Dilemma by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate rise history reveals a familiar dilemma—previous delays led to inflated asset prices and recessions.

2015-09-15 00:00:00 On My Radar: Valuations, Forward Returns and Recession by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group

Of the nine market declines associated with recessions that started with valuations above the mean, the average decline was -42.8%. Of the four declines that began with valuations below the mean, the average was -19.9%”– Doug Short

2015-09-15 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: To Hike, or not to Hike? by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

After many years of standing pat on interest rates, there is finally a genuine chance of a shift in Fed policy. The punditry will be asking: To hike, or not to hike?

2015-09-15 00:00:00 We Aren't Getting by with a Little Help from the Fed by David Robertson of Arete Asset Management

Long term investors would do well to avoid getting caught up in the guessing game of when the Fed will raise interest rates. Economic theory and empirical evidence both point to the reality that there is precious little the Fed can do sustainably improve economic outcomes. Instead, it is far better to keep an eye on income and investment.

2015-09-15 00:00:00 Market Unease May Continue for Some Time by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Markets calmed last week relative to recent turmoil, but investor sentiment remains fragile. The focus on Federal Reserve policy, weakness in China and concerns about economic growth continued to drive sentiment. The S&P 500 Index gained 2.1%, commodities were flat and bond yields rose. Technology and health care posted the best results, while energy lagged.

2015-09-14 00:00:00 The Beauty of Truth and the Beast of Dogma by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

When you examine historical data and estimate actual correlations and effect sizes, the dogmatic belief that the Fed can “fine tune” anything in the economy is utter hogwash. Truth, on the other hand, is beautiful. Economic relationships that are supported in real-world data are a sight to behold.

2015-09-14 00:00:00 Schwab Market Perspective: Now What? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”—Mike Tyson. We don’t often quote Mike Tyson, but his words resonate lately. Investors are wondering what to do—buy the dips, sell the rallies, or sit tight? First, investment decisions should never be made on emotion, which tends to dominate at times like this. It can be difficult to stomach moves such as we’ve seen recently. But investors who have an investing plan in place should indeed just sit there, let things calm down, and continue with the plan already put in place.

2015-09-12 00:00:00 Life Is Uncertain and So Are Interest Rates by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Right now, a lot of investors are wondering about the uncertainty of rising interest rates—the causes, effects and possible ramifications. Many people have been saying for weeks and months now that a rate hike is imminent and that September is the anticipated takeoff. I’ve been skeptical of this, and now a chart from highly-respected market analyst Jeff deGraaf confirms my skepticism.

2015-09-11 00:00:00 Housing: A Secular Opportunity? by Adam Peck of Heartland Advisors

Low interest rates, demographics, and a solid economy should provide staying power to a resurgent housing market. We are finding opportunities to capitalize on growth in the area while diversifying idiosyncratic risks in our portfolios.

2015-09-11 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: September by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments

While the [US] Fed is facing an extremely delicate task ... it is still our belief that the US economy remains sufficiently strong to be able to bear a gradual increase in short-term rates in the coming months.

2015-09-11 00:00:00 Protecting Against Inflation In a Deflationary World by Steven Malin Ph.D. of Allianz Global Investors

Powerful global deflationary forces will continue to put downward pressure on the prices of inputs and outputs for months, if not years, to come. Even if the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raise policy interest rates over the months ahead, inflation risk premiums built into market interest rates will remain small. In the absence of strong wage increases, unprecedented global growth in the supply of resources and outputs relative to demand will linger—and inflation will remain constrained.

2015-09-10 00:00:00 The U.S. Economy Is Not Holding Back the Fed by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee meets next week, and there is more uneasiness than usual surrounding the event. Much has changed in the past few weeks, and the Fed’s likely course of action is being examined from a multitude of angles.

2015-09-10 00:00:00 Why All the Hoopla over 25 Basis Points? by Dr. Brian Jacobsen of Wells Fargo Asset Management

Should the Federal Reserve hike rates at their next meeting? Take a look at the case for and against, with Dr. Brian Jacobsen, CFA, CFP®, of Wells Fargo Asset Management.

2015-09-10 00:00:00 Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines by Doug Short (Article)

Note from Doug: In response to a request, I've updated the data in this article through the August month-end numbers.

Earlier this year I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. Based on the underlying data in the adjacent chart, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices:

2015-09-09 00:00:00 Competing with the Alpha and the Omega by Cole Smead, CFA of Smead Capital Management

In the Bible, Jesus said, “I am the Alpha and the Omega, the first and the last, the beginning and the end.” While Jesus infers that he is at both the beginning and the end of time, we as investors can only operate in the present with a knowledge of what has come before. To better understand today's commodity market circumstances, we believe investors should examine the herd mentality and the psychological backing that may lead to contrarian investment opportunities.

2015-09-09 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Revise Year-End Market Estimates? by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

Sometimes the calendar dictates the agenda. The Labor Day weekend marks the official end of a summer that was eventful for markets. The punditry will be asking: What is your (revised) EOY target for stocks?

2015-09-09 00:00:00 Everything's Not Bad by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

Have you noticed? Everything’s bad these days. On February 25, 2015, the Washington Post wonkblog posted a piece titled “Why rising wages might be bad news.” Last week, on September 1st, after another strong month of car and truck sales, the Wall Street Journal published a story “The Bad News in Strong Car Sales.”

2015-09-09 00:00:00 On The Economy, Inflation, China & Odds For Fed Liftoff by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

The investment markets remain fixated on whether the Fed will hike interest rates for the first time in almost a decade on September 17. Stock market volatility spiked in late August and so far this month, with most global equity markets in “correction” territory. It remains to be seen if the latest stock market chaos will cause the Fed to delay lift-off until December or later.

2015-09-08 00:00:00 Making Sense of Market Volatility by Sponsored Content from Invesco (Article)

• On Aug. 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered a correction and reminded investors what volatility looks like. • Several Invesco senior investment leaders discuss their views of market volatility. • They share how it affects, or doesn’t affect, the opportunities they see.

2015-09-08 00:00:00 Betting on Japan, Inc.’s Recovery by Vadim Zlotnikov of AllianceBernstein

Japanese stocks have outperformed the past few years, and we don’t think their run is over. Policies to improve profitability, capital use and productivity should provide a stronger foundation for further gains.

2015-09-06 00:00:00 Muddling Through Shanghai by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

China is in transition, a transition that was clearly telegraphed if you have been paying attention. Our recent book on China (A Great Leap Forward?) clearly laid out this new path. Today we are going to talk about this precarious, difficult transition, which may impose profound impacts on much of the rest of the world. This transition is going to change the way global trade has worked in the past. There will be winners and losers.

2015-09-04 00:00:00 Here’s Your Guide to What the Influencers Are Saying about Commodities by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

A few legendary influencers in investing are making huge bets right now on commodities, an area that’s faced—and continues to face—some pretty strong headwinds. What are we to make of this?

2015-09-04 00:00:00 Unfazed by the Turmoil by Byron Wien of Blackstone

Overall, my sense of this year’s lunches is that the participants were still basically optimistic, as they generally are. I wonder if there were something big and negative brewing out there, whether the group would be able to anticipate it.

2015-09-04 00:00:00 International Economic Week in Review For Aug. 31-Sept. 4 by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The potential negative impact of China’s slowdown is sinking into policy maker’s decision making process and trader’s analysis. Money is flowing from emerging to developed economies; emerging markets and currencies are underperformers relative to developed markets. The potential for China to export deflation is being discussed. And central bankers are acknowledging the slowdown by lowering growth forecasts and opening speculating about additional monetary stimulus. As we leave the summer doldrums and enter the last four months of trading, the environment has clearly changed.

2015-09-03 00:00:00 12 Questions for a 12% Correction by Burt White of LPL Financial

The recent market downdraft and related uncertainty in China have led to many investor questions. The strong 6.5% rebound in the S&P 500 over the last three trading sessions (August 26, 27, 28, 2015) has cut the S&P 500’s losses from the 2015 peak (2130 on May 21, 2015) to 6.7%. In response to the S&P 500’s recent 12% correction?—?the first decline of more than 10% since 2011?—?we answer 12 investor questions. Bottom line, we do not expect the latest correction and China uncertainty to lead to the end of the U.S. economic expansion or the end of the six-and-a-half-year old bull

2015-09-03 00:00:00 Weight of the Evidence Argues for Caution by William Delwiche of Robert W. Baird & Co.

At this point, cycle lows for the popular averages may well be in place. This is not yet supported by the weight of the evidence, however. Simply put, risks remain elevated and it is too early to sound an all clear.

2015-09-03 00:00:00 Remember This Isn’t 2008 by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

After a seesaw week for stocks, Russ Koesterich explains why it's important to maintain perspective.

2015-09-02 00:00:00 Keeping Firm Perspective as Markets Gyrate by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich discusses why it is important to maintain perspective amidst the recent volatility, and how the selloff has created some areas of value.

2015-09-02 00:00:00 Equities Endure Intense Volatility, but the Bull Market Survives by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities experienced extreme volatility last week. Prices plummeted on Monday morning due to concerns over slowing growth in China as well as uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy. The sell-off was likely exacerbated by trading halts, liquidity pressures and systematic investing programs. Markets recovered later in the week as investors viewed conditions as oversold, and as oil and other commodity prices stabilized and advanced. For the week, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.0%. The energy, technology and consumer discretionary sectors led the way while utilities sold off sharply.

2015-09-02 00:00:00 Market Reset, Not Recession by John Calamos of Calamos Investments

In our view: Neither the U.S. or global economy is headed for recession; instead, we are seeing a market reset that is not entirely unexpected. Markets are likely to be extremely choppy over these next months, and we may see additional corrections. Over the near term, energy and commodity prices will remain volatile, with global interest rates and currency turmoil adding to the headwinds. Market dislocations are providing us with select opportunities to establish and build positions in fundamentally strong companies, worldwide—including in emerging markets.

2015-09-01 00:00:00 Near-Term Headwinds Offer Attractive Buying Opportunities by (Article)

With many companies in more economically sensitive sectors of the small-cap market poised for incremental margin expansion and accelerated earnings growth as the U.S. economy continues down the path of normalization, Portfolio Managers Steven McBoyle and Lauren Romeo are trying to take advantage of current headwinds that should ultimately reverse with more robust economic growth.

2015-08-31 00:00:00 Making Sense of Market Volatility by Karen Dunn Kelley of Invesco Blog

On Aug. 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered a correction, falling 10% from its most recent peak, and reminded investors what volatility looks like after almost four correction-free years. While volatility exposes weaknesses in the market, in my opinion it also reveals the strength of high conviction managers who are skillfully navigating the market. Active management and smart beta strategies seek to surpass the “market averages” offered by traditional benchmarks, providing the potential not only for higher returns, but also for a smoother ride.

2015-08-31 00:00:00 Dog Days Are Over: What a Week! by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Volatility … and the volatility of volatility … hit record levels last week. We believe this is just a correction; not the beginning of a new bear market. Weeks like last week provide valuable lessons for investors about crowd psychology and the benefits of diversification and rebalancing.

2015-08-30 00:00:00 Weekly Market Summary by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices will often jump 10% or more higher and also attempt to retest the lows. Volatility will likely remain elevated for several months. But the fall in equity prices, which has knocked investor sentiment to its knees, opens up an attractive risk/reward opportunity for investors. Further weakness, which is quite possible, is an opportunity to accumulate with an eye toward year-end. However, a quick, uncorrected rally in the next week or two would likely fail.

2015-08-30 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For August 24-28 by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The strongest news of the week was the upward revision of 2Q GDP from 2.3% to 3.7% (Q/Q). All sectors contributed. Personal consumption expenditures increased 3.1% with contributions from durable goods purchases (+8.2%) and non-durable goods (+4.1%). Residential construction increased 7.8% while non-residential was up 3.1%. Equipment was down .4%, but this can be attributed to oil sector’s weakness. Finally, exports increased 5.2%. Overall, this report was very encouraging, especially considering 1Q weakness.

2015-08-30 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For August 24-28 by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The fundamentals overall are slightly positive because they give companies an environment where they can grow top line revenue. The problem is most companies are just barely doing so. Even excluding the energy sector, top line revenue was only up 1.1% last quarter. Yes, it’s positive, which is obviously better than the alternative. But with market is already pricey; a 1.1% revenue increase doesn’t add a lot of upside room.

2015-08-28 00:00:00 Why This Time Could Be Different by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

In yesterday's post, I discussed the current correction within the context of previous "bull market" corrections. Specifically, the corrections in 1987, 1998, 2010 and 2011. However, today, I want to look at the current correction in the context of previous starts to "bear markets" and subsequent recessions.

2015-08-28 00:00:00 What’s Holding Back the U.S. Consumer by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

Since the recession ended, U.S. real household consumption has remained well below the historical average. Russ Koesterich explains why it’s likely to remain that way.

2015-08-27 00:00:00 Superpower by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Our subject is a new book titled Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, by Ian Bremmer, a political scientist who writes often on geopolitical issues. At some point, the US will need to select a workable foreign policy for the post-Cold War era and determine how to handle the superpower role. In this report, we review Bremmer’s book, starting with his premise that no president since the fall of the Berlin Wall has developed a coherent foreign policy.

2015-08-26 00:00:00 China Commentary by John Calamos: Market Reset, Not Recession by John Calamos Sr. of Calamos Investments

The global market selloff of these past days has tested the mettle of many investors—particularly as the turmoil has followed an unusual period earlier this year, where equities delivered healthy advances with very little volatility. While we’ve gone on record saying that we expected volatility to persist (including in our most recent Outlook), we have been surprised by how severe the downturn has been. However, experience teaches that there can be many opportunities in volatile markets.

2015-08-26 00:00:00 A Painful but Healthy Adjustment for Risk Assets by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The source of the current market correction is the massive misalignment of exchange rates, which finds its roots in quantitative easing.

2015-08-25 00:00:00 Finding Value in the Selloff Rubble by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

BlackRock Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich discusses the catalysts for the brutal equity selloff and its key takeaway for long-term investors.

2015-08-21 00:00:00 Developed Asia Pacific: Economy Trends Update July 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

After a slump in consumer spending had raised concerns of an economic slowdown in Japan recently, there was a welcome uptick in indicators such as manufacturing activity and exports. However, slowing growth in China, a major trading partner, is widely expected to have a bearing on the economy in the near future. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged in its recent review as expected, thanks to subdued inflation, a stabilizing job market, and early signs of a pick-up in business investment.

2015-08-21 00:00:00 Is a Stronger U.S. Dollar Really Bad News? Three Myths about Emerging Markets by Michele Mazzoleni of Research Affiliates

A strengthening U.S. dollar threatens emerging market economies—owes its plausibility to three myths. Let’s examine them.

2015-08-20 00:00:00 Population Growth & Productivity Headed in Wrong Direction by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

Today we’ll focus on some longer-term economic data which shows, unfortunately, that the US economy is in a multi-decade slide that will be very difficult to reverse. Population growth and worker productivity – the keys to sustained economic growth – are both in decline, trends that are not likely to change anytime soon.

2015-08-20 00:00:00 Summer Quartet by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial

Music from four players continues to influence events in the bond market this summer: the Federal Reserve (Fed), China, oil prices, and the U.S. dollar. The music from these four players has led to a mixed response in the bond market: disturbing for short-term securities, melodic for long-term bonds.

2015-08-20 00:00:00 Global Energy: Adapting to New Realities by Suken Patel of Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc.

The recent slide in oil prices is symptomatic of large fundamental shifts taking place across the energy sector. The current volatility is nothing new to oil markets as their self-correcting nature has frequently resulted in a sequence of deep boom and bust cycles. While we can anticipate and prepare for these cycles, much like with earthquakes, the timing and consequences can still be surprising. In times like these, maintaining a long-term perspective is essential to place current events in the proper context.

2015-08-19 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: August by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments

We believe sound headline job creation figures point to rate increases by a [US] Fed that would like to begin to ‘normalize’ monetary policy when possible. The US economy is no longer in the emergency room, as it was in December 2008.

2015-08-19 00:00:00 The One Percent by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

I don’t need to defend Mr. Landry. Mr. Landry does just fine on his own. But coming from me – someone who is my own biggest critic as well as a critic of Wall Street – you best realize that Mr. Landry is in the top 1% of people on Wall Street. He is clear, he is concise, and he is right more than he is wrong. AND more importantly, when he is wrong he doesn’t just sit there and fight the tape. He adjusts unlike [many] of the bonehead strategists on Wall Street; stop reading and listening to him at your own risk.

2015-08-19 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview: July 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

While some of the emerging economies continue to face slow growth from lower commodity exports, the outlook for most developed economies has brightened in recent months. The U.S. slowdown during the first half of this year was not as bad as thought earlier, while economic trends from the Eurozone remain stable. Helped by sustained labor market gains, U.S. consumer sentiment is picking up again and should help aggregate growth during the second half of the year.

2015-08-19 00:00:00 One man’s weed... by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments

I spent time at the Woodward Dream Cruise this week in my brother Charlie’s 1985 Ford Mustang convertible (his first new car which he bought and has maintained since that year). I think the Cruise is the largest annual assemblage of classic cars on the planet. What a great time for anyone who enjoys historical vehicles and the memories they bring back, especially here in the Motor City.

2015-08-18 00:00:00 International Economic Week in Review For Aug. 10-14 by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

This weekend was my summer vacation, when I (try) to completely unplug from news, internet and other variety of my daily routine. I was pretty successful at the task, although I did keep up with general events thanks to CNN. With the exception of China’s devaluation, there was little meaningful economic news, making my catch-up column a bit easier. But perhaps more importantly, when I returned I was struck just how little things had really changed in a 7 day period.

2015-08-14 00:00:00 China Not Immune to Contagious Quantitative Easing and Massive Printing of Cheap Money by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

First it was the U.S. Federal Reserve. Then, in 2013, Japan launched what became known as Abenomics. The European Central Bank (ECB) followed suit in 2014. And now the People’s Bank of China has joined the parade. All of them in some way stimulated economic growth by initiating monetary quantitative easing (QE) programs.

2015-08-14 00:00:00 Three Steps to "Good Enough" - In Praise of Simplicity, Common Sense, and Stubbornness by Francois Sicart of Tocqueville Asset Management

The plain truth is that in the practice of investment, “good enough,” combined with a solid dose of common sense, usually beats precision and faith in mathematical models. So, if a careful analysis has given us a “good enough” idea of a company’s worth, we can assume that its market-traded shares will fluctuate – sometimes wildly – around that fundamental value. And that may be the value investor’s salvation.

2015-08-14 00:00:00 The Tortoise Wins Again? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

The narrow trading range for US stocks continues, but there are some concerning signs such as seasonality and technical issues that make us a bit more cautious in the near term. We don’t think the bull market is in danger of ending, but there could certainly be a pullback and we don’t believe investors need to be in a great hurry to put money to work. In the immediate aftermath, China’s move on its currency rattled markets, but we don’t think it’s the start of a currency war, and hope that this is part of a herky-jerky path to freer markets.

2015-08-13 00:00:00 Exit from Wonderland: Change Is Now on the Horizon by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research

Many investors and advisors are unsure about the current financial market environment. They have been wrestling with how to weight equities and whether to include alternative investments. Although equities have performed well in recent years, many alternatives have lagged expectations. This should not be surprising: the financial world is operating just as the Fed has intended.

2015-08-13 00:00:00 Americas: Economy Trends Update -- July 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

Even as the U.S. is recovering from stagnant growth during the initial months of the year, most other economies in the Americas region are struggling with slow growth. Prices of oil and other commodities have dipped again after a short recovery, restricting the ability of governments to increase spending. Many countries in the region depend on revenues from exports of energy and other commodities for financing a substantial part of their budgets.

2015-08-13 00:00:00 What We Can Learn by Going Back to School by Burt White of LPL Financial

The summer has flown by and some children are already going back to school this week. The back to school shopping session is considered the second most important selling season for retailers (after the Christmas/winter holidays), which we think is a good reason to check in on the health of the U.S. consumer and provide our latest thoughts on the consumer discretionary sector. Expectations for this season are low, but several consumer spending tailwinds suggest the sector may be poised to outperform over the rest of the 2015.

2015-08-13 00:00:00 No Solace in Small Caps by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

In an effort to mitigate the impact of a stronger dollar, many investors have been favoring small-cap stocks. However, this strategy hasn’t provided much benefit year-to-date. Russ explains why.

2015-08-12 00:00:00 Walls are Not Perfect by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments

I spent part of this summer on a family vacation in four of the six nations that were once republics of the socialist state of Yugoslavia. Many have asked me “Why,” and I simply replied that I had heard it was beautiful and had always wanted to go there. It didn’t hurt that my barber of 40 years and my employer during law school, Marv Esch, a congressman from Ann Arbor, MI, were both of Yugoslavian heritage.

2015-08-12 00:00:00 10 Dividend Growth Stocks for Your Retirement Portfolios Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs

After an exhaustive search of the dividend growth stock universe I identified 20 dividend growth stocks that I felt were currently worthy of consideration for retirement portfolios based on valuation. In part 1 of this 2-part series found here I discussed the current level of the S&P 500, and offered some important principles about valuation. Additionally, I offered the first group of 10 of what I consider the highest quality members of the 20 screened research candidates I uncovered.

2015-08-11 00:00:00 The Curious Case of Dollar Strength by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

U.S. equities finished in the red last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.79% to 17,373, the S&P 500 Index slipped 1.28% to 2,077 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.66% to close the week at 5,043. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from 2.20% to 2.17%, as its price correspondingly rose.

2015-08-07 00:00:00 Closing the Sausage Factory by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

Anything you do attracts bureaucratic oversight now. We may laugh at “helicopter parents” hovering over their children at school, but we all have a helicopter government looking over our shoulders at work.

2015-08-07 00:00:00 Gold Holds Its Own Against These Media Darlings by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

A recent Bloomberg article points out that the gold rout has cost China and Russia $5.4 billion, an amount that would sound colossal were it not for the fact that U.S. media companies such as Disney and Viacom collectively lost over $60 billion for shareholders in as little as two days this week. Below are the weekly losses for just a handful of those companies. Compared to many other asset classes, gold has held up well, even after factoring in its price decline.

2015-08-07 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For August 3-7 by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The ISM’s US manufacturing number decreased from 53.5 to 52.7, but remained above the key 50 level. New orders and production continued their lengthy periods of expansion. 11 of 18 industries grew. The anecdotal comments are interesting:

2015-08-07 00:00:00 Keep Your Powder Dry by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Reports of ongoing global market volatility are taking a toll on consumer confidence. However, compelling opportunities await patient investors.

2015-08-07 00:00:00 What Kind of "Improvement" Does the Fed Want? by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

If GDP growth only averages 2.0% in the Second Half (which I think is likely), then 2015 growth will only be about 1.7% annually. Given that the Fed didn't raise rates in 2012, 2013, and 2014, when growth was well north of 2%, why would they do so now? Yet Wall Street and the media stubbornly cling to the notion that 3% growth and rate hikes are just around the corner. Old notions die hard, and this one has taken on a life of its own.

2015-08-06 00:00:00 The Three Gluts by Joachim Fels of PIMCO

While the global savings glut is likely the main secular force behind the global environment of low growth, lowflation and low interest rates, both the oil glut and the money glut should help lift demand growth, inflation and thus interest rates from their current depressed levels over the cyclical horizon.

2015-08-06 00:00:00 The Euro Isn't Dead by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

While the world can count dozens of important currencies, when it comes to top line financial and investment discussions, the currency marketplace really comes down to a one-on-one cage match between the two top contenders: the U.S. Dollar and the Euro.

2015-08-06 00:00:00 Productivity Puzzle by John Canally of LPL Financial

All eyes are on jobs this week. The U.S. Department of Labor’s July Employment Situation report (due August 7, 2015) will likely show that the U.S. economy created 225,000 jobs in July 2015, close to the average job creation over the past 12 months (245,000) according to the consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg News.

2015-08-04 00:00:00 Concerned About Interest Rates Rising? Consider Convertibles by Sponsored Content from Invesco (Article)

  • Convertible securities uniquely combine equity and bond features.
  • In my view, convertibles are attractive today due to their historical performance during rising interest rate periods.
  • I examine asset class performance during each of the last 10 periods of US rising interest rates.

2015-08-04 00:00:00 Reasons to Stay with an Equity-Focused Investment Stance by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

A number of issues garnered attention last week, including falling oil prices, a sell-off in Chinese equities, ongoing corporate deal activity and mixed economic and earnings data.

2015-08-04 00:00:00 Even Garth Can't Argue About Liftoff by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

Plow On, Garth! Time for Liftoff, Wayne! The first report on Q2 real GDP showed Plow Horse annualized growth of 2.3%, exactly the same as the average growth rate in the past year. Now that’s the definition of a Plow Horse report.

2015-08-03 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review: Weaker Breadth Indicators, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The Fed’s policy statement was the main economic event this week; its opening paragraph began, “Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft.”

2015-08-03 00:00:00 Bridging the Gap in Global Infrastructure Funding, Part 1 by Darin Turner of Invesco Blog

Infrastructure is the backbone of every economy, providing essential public services such as water supply, energy and mobility. And for investors, infrastructure also has the potential to provide unique benefits.

2015-08-02 00:00:00 International Economic Week in Review: Emerging Market Exodus, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

One of the biggest stories to emerge has been the decline in Emerging Market Currencies. The IMF noted this in their latest World Economic Outlook.

2015-08-02 00:00:00 Fear of the Fed Is Rising by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ben Trinder of Northern Trust

My youngest daughter has an acute case of arachnophobia; even the tiniest spider sets her off. When a daddy longlegs appeared in the bathroom of a vacation home we were renting, she covered herself in the shower curtain and ran straight out the front door. It’s gotten so bad that the mere mention of a spider upsets her; the fear is almost worse than the reality

2015-08-02 00:00:00 When China Stopped Acting Chinese by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

Much of the world is focused on what is happening in Greece and Europe. A lot of people are paying attention to the Middle East and geopolitics. These are significant concerns, for sure; but what has been happening in China the past few months has more far-reaching global investment implications than Europe or the Middle East do. Most people are aware of the amazing run-up in the Shanghai stock index and the recent “crash.” The government intervened and for a time has halted the rapid drop in the markets.

2015-08-01 00:00:00 Gold on Sale, Says the Rational Investor by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The leveraged gold futures derivatives market is knocking down the precious metal, yet in massive contrast, this drop has ignited a shopping frenzy according to gold coin dealers. I spoke with several friends and industry experts this week who confirmed the record sales numbers for the month. In fact, American Gold Eagle sales reached 161,500 ounces in July, the highest monthly figure since April 2013. What gives?

2015-07-29 00:00:00 Equities, Dividends & Rising Interest Rates by Guinness Atkinson Investment Team of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management

With interest rates at generational lows and what is likely an improving US economy, it is natural to contemplate or even worry about the possibil- ity of rising interest rates. Common perception is that rising interest rate environments are generally not favorable to equities and income oriented in- vestments. This is certainly true for bonds1 whose prices move directly and inversely with changes in interest rates. But is it true for equities in general and for dividend paying stocks in particular?

2015-07-29 00:00:00 Ten Quick Topics to Ruin Your Summer by Jeremy Grantham of GMO

Chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham reviews "10 topics that really matter, at least in my opinion. They can all be viewed as problems: potential threats to our well-being"

2015-07-29 00:00:00 Laudato Sí by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Last week, the Vatican held a meeting of the mayors of some of the world’s largest cities to discuss climate change. This meeting was part of Pope Francis’s efforts to add to the discussion of climate change, which was the subject of a recent encyclical, Laudato Sí. In this report, we will begin with our position on climate change, discuss the encyclical and try to measure its potential impact on the direction of climate change policy. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

2015-07-27 00:00:00 The Nuclear Deal is Mostly about Oil by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

The recent nuclear non-proliferation agreement between Iran and the U.S. has created a firestorm debate in the Middle East and both sides of the Atlantic. While the deal is supposedly all about nuclear power and nuclear bombs, its practical implications are all about oil. But the conclusions we should make about its impact on the energy sector are far from clear. A ratification of the deal would allow Iran to make lucrative long term production and distribution contracts with foreign energy firms.

2015-07-26 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review: Transports Still Concerning, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The Conference Board released the leading and coincident indicators, both of which provide an excellent summation of current and future activity.

2015-07-26 00:00:00 European Drama Hasn’t Derailed US Growth by Ed Perks of Franklin Templeton Investments

We believe headwinds to growth have been easing and what the current leg of the US expansion has perhaps lacked in intensity may very well be made up for by a transition to a more durable or lengthy expansion.

2015-07-25 00:00:00 3 Reasons Why Gold Isn’t Behaving Like Gold Right Now by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The last time the metal descended this quickly was 18 months ago, on January 6, 2014, when someone brought a massive gold sell order on the market before retracting it in a high-frequency trading tactic called “quote stuffing.”

2015-07-24 00:00:00 The Rise of the Renminbi: Will China’s Yuan Become a Global Reserve Currency? by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

Reserve currency status and RMB internationalization could confer a number of significant benefits on China, including potentially lowering borrowing costs and facilitating overseas expansion by Chinese companies.

2015-07-24 00:00:00 Sector Insights-Financial Services by Mark Dawson of Rainier Investment Management

The financial services sector is unique. Unlike other sectors, it is essentially the lifeblood of the economy. When it’s healthy, it provides businesses and consumers with access to the credit, capital and investments that are vital to a healthy and growing U.S. economy. But when it’s sick, as we saw during the financial crisis in 2008, it can weaken the whole system. Severely damaged in 2008, the U.S. financial system - in particular banks - have been healing. Now is a good time to seek out investment opportunities in financial stocks.

2015-07-23 00:00:00 Are MLPs Waiting for Godot? by David Chiaro of Eagle Global Advisors

Like the absurdist play where two characters Vladimir and Estragon wait for a mysterious Godot who never shows up, investors in MLPs continue to wait for definitive answers to the "big questions" facing MLPs: when will interest rates rise and what will happen with future oil production and prices?

2015-07-23 00:00:00 Mid-Year Market Outlook - July 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

At the end of 2014, “why international?” was the prevailing investor sentiment. After all, foreign stocks had lagged U.S. equities yet again, underperforming four out of the five years between 2010 and 2014. The consensus outlook was that U.S. markets would outperform their foreign peers in any case, and so, would it really serve any purpose to hold international equities in a portfolio? Many investors followed the crowd.

2015-07-23 00:00:00 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Economy Likely to Withstand China, Greece by John Calamos, Sr. of Calamos Investments

The global markets and economy should be able to move higher for the remainder of the year, with accommodative monetary policy and well-contained inflation providing tailwinds. The U.S. looks set to extend its not-too-hot, not-too-cold recovery, while Japan is benefiting from stimulus and pro-market reforms. Although economic conditions in Europe remain fragile and uneven, growth looks to be accelerating overall, and we believe the European Union has the tools to prevent a broader Europe contagion should the Greek bailout resolution fall apart.

2015-07-22 00:00:00 Global Economic Outlook by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Economists and the financial markets have been almost exclusively focused on events in Greece and China over the past several months. These situations merited attention but pushed more-positive economic developments into the background.

2015-07-22 00:00:00 The Upside to Low Liquidity Bond Markets by Multisector Full Discretion Team of Loomis Sayles

As structural and cyclical factors reduce bond market liquidity, the Multisector Full Discretion team explains how they are positioning portfolios.

2015-07-20 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of July 13-17; Earnings Season Begins, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The Federal Reserve issued two important documents last week: the Beige Book and Chairperson Yellen’s latest Congressional testimony. The Beige Book was largely positive. Non-financial service growth is moderate. Real estate is growing and the employment picture was generally positive. Strong demand for autos sales helped increase consumer spending. The only negative was manufacturing which was uneven due to the strong dollar and weak energy sector.

2015-07-20 00:00:00 Shopping for Bargains in Russian Retailers by Henry D'Auria, Justin Moreau of AllianceBernstein

Russian equities are among the cheapest in the world amid political and economic controversy. Yet investors might be surprised to discover that the rapidly developing retail industry offers undervalued opportunities with attractive return potential.

2015-07-20 00:00:00 Tax Cuts on the Horizon by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors

The one key reason for being bullish on equities the past several years has been valuation. Stocks are cheap based on profits and interest rates.

2015-07-19 00:00:00 Imperial Germany by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Last week, we analyzed the Greek/Eurozone negotiations using game theory as an explanatory tool. In this report, we will review the basic geopolitics of Europe, the political response and the evolution of the Eurozone. Using this background, we will examine Germany’s actions in the most recent Greek crisis. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

2015-07-17 00:00:00 Schwab Market Perspective: Slow Summer?! by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

Summer is supposed to be a time of slow trading, light news, and an opportunity for vacations. But the past several weeks have been anything but slow. Greece—a country representing 0.38% of the world economy based on gross domestic product (GDP), has dominated attention; China’s recent stock market plunge also dented sentiment among US investors. It’s meant the “running to stand still” characteristic of this year’s first half is persistent. In fact, the first half of the year saw the S&P 500 trade in its narrowest range in history.

2015-07-17 00:00:00 Crude Oil Is the Best-Performing Commodity of 2015 So Far by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The widest expansion this year was made by none other than crude oil, the worst-performing commodity of 2014. As of June 30, oil posted gains of over 11 percent, rising to $59.47 per barrel. After falling more than 50 percent since last summer, though, it had little else to go but up. That oil claimed the top spot just highlights the reality that commodities are in a depressed state right now.

2015-07-17 00:00:00 Productivity and Modern-Day Horse Manure by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

What exactly do we mean by this “productivity” word? I’ve given this a good deal of thought lately, and I plan to explore it in my newsletters over the next few months. As you will see, productivity growth has both a positive side and a very negative side.

2015-07-15 00:00:00 The National Debt Is Over $18 Trillion, Not $13 Trillion by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

In June, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual “Long-Term Budget Outlook” which concluded yet again that the trajectory of US federal debt is “unsustainable” and will lead to an unprecedented debt crisis in the years ahead.

2015-07-14 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink the Stock Market? by Jeffrey Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

There is special interest in 2nd quarter earnings both as a read on the economy and trends in costs and margins. Ordinarily the focus would be Fed Chair Yellen’s House testimony on Wednesday and the reprise on Thursday. She has stated her viewpoint so frequently – rate hike possible, data dependent, expecting better growth – that a surprise is unlikely.

2015-07-11 00:00:00 Global Investors: You Should Be Paying Attention to this Economic Indicator by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

In addition to our own macro models, BCA Research , a highly respected independent research company, pointed out that PMIs in developing economies have plunged to new lows. The International Monetary Fund also revised downward its global growth forecast for 2015. On this account, bad news is good news, as central bankers are scrambling to stimulate economic growth.

2015-07-11 00:00:00 Signs the U.S. Recovery is Solid by Rick Rieder of BlackRock Investment Management

Rick Rieder dispels pessimistic evaluations of the U.S. economy, explaining why the U.S. recovery is actually stronger than headline data would have you believe.

2015-07-09 00:00:00 Greece Playbook by Burt White of LPL Financial

Greece’s critical referendum took place this weekend and the Greek people resoundingly voted “no”?—?rejecting the latest bailout deal from creditors. The referendum result, which some interpreted as a vote to exit the Eurozone, throws Greece’s future in the currency union firmly in doubt. The unexpected result has led to a roughly 2% decline in the broad European indexes but only a modest decline in the S&P 500 (as of 3 p.m. ET today, July 6, 2015). The negative market reaction in Europe is not surprising, given polls heading into the weekend suggested a vote for the bailout was

2015-07-07 00:00:00 Update on Greece by Henderson Global Investors of Henderson Global Investors

What happens next in Greece? The immediate impact of the referendum will be to greatly intensify financial and economic pressures in Greece. Now without a bailout, Greece will struggle to find the cash to pay for pensions and public sector wages. The government’s only option may be to make these payments in some form of IOUs in the weeks ahead.

2015-07-07 00:00:00 The Summer Solstice and Mid-Year Thoughts by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Reflecting on the first half of 2015, while littered with geopolitical events, shows very little upside progress for the S&P 500 (SPX/2076.78). In fact, my notes of more than 50 years show no other time when the SPX was never up or down more than 3.5% year-to-date (YTD).

2015-07-07 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Will FedSpeak Interrupt the Lazy, Hazy, Crazy Days of Summer? by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

In one sense, the week ahead should be a quiet, dull semi-vacation. As Nat King Cole explained, the Lazy-Hazy-Crazy days of summer – pretzels, beer, and bikinis that never got wet. It is the lull before earnings and includes a light economic calendar. Will the A-Team need to return from the beach because of Greece? Or will it be a quiet week, disturbed only by an avalanche of FedSpeak and consequent punditry? One way or another, I think we will (finally) put the Greek drama behind us and resume the familiar debate about the Fed.

2015-07-07 00:00:00 Emerging-Market Stocks: Back on the Map by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

After the volatility of the past few years, conditions once again appear favorable for this asset class.

2015-07-07 00:00:00 Are You Really Keeping Your Eye on the Ball? by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments

I was playing catch with my great-nephew, Bryson, over the weekend. He is just two years old and is a charmer. As we tossed the ball back and forth, he caught it and threw it back on target more times than he missed.

2015-07-06 00:00:00 Why Chinese Stocks are in a Bear Market and it Doesn’t Matter by Bryce Coward of GaveKal Capital

Chinese stocks are down a cool 30% from their high less than one month ago, but it matters little to most investors.

2015-07-06 00:00:00 Exporting the “Bacon Genie” and Other Reasons to Be Bullish by Brooks Ritchey of Franklin Templeton Investments

From “Bacon Genies” to “Snuggies,” there’s little doubting Americans have a thirst for consumer goods, even those that don’t always appear to serve much practical purpose. Brooks Ritchey, Senior Managing Director at K2 Advisors®, Franklin Templeton Solutions®, explores how an evolving consumer culture is spreading throughout the globe, and how he and his team are positioning their portfolios with these types of macro considerations in mind.

2015-07-03 00:00:00 International Economic Week in Review For June 29-July 30; Greece and Canada Creating Problems, Edit by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Greece is obviously the big wild card going into next week. And while the damage appears to be contained for now, there is no guarantee we won't see a negative feedback loop filter out into the market and EU economy. Canada's four months of GDP contraction are also getting a bit concerning. Even though we knew this was coming, it's still a most unwelcome development. However, other economies are at least holding their own for now.

2015-07-02 00:00:00 The Business Cycle—Middle-Aged or Elderly? by Erik Knutzen of Neuberger Berman

When it comes to the duration of the business cycle, 50 is the new 40. Much the way that better diet, health care and exercise have helped double life expectancy over the past century, central banks have prolonged the current expansion using new elixirs such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing. At 72 months, the business cycle has well surpassed the 58.4-month average of the modern era and is now more than twice the length of the pre-WWII average.

2015-07-01 00:00:00 The Smartest Man is Wild about Innovation by Byron Wien of Blackstone

For the past fifteen years I have written annually about a person I have come to call “The Smartest Man in Europe.” For new readers, he is a finance person in his 80’s who has built his reputation by identifying important trend changes early and putting serious money behind his conclusions. Descended from a mercantile family that operated canteens selling food and weather protection along the Silk Route, he was educated in Europe, trained in New York and returned home to take advantage of the wealth-creating opportunities resulting from the post-war recovery.

2015-07-01 00:00:00 Greece Firestorm Won't Stifle Consumer Comeback by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Investors should expect more volatility in the stock market and larger flows into US Treasuries this week given the increased likelihood of a Grexit. Rather than hide, investors could view this crisis as a buying opportunity—a chance to position their portfolios for the second half of 2015. Over the longer term, fundamentals like job creation and a healthier consumer play a far more important role.

2015-07-01 00:00:00 More Volatility: A Positive Environment for Active Managers by Chuck Royce, Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds

Dating from the year-to-date low for the 10-Year Treasury on January 30 through the end of the first half, we have observed promising signs that the market may be taking greater strides toward normalization. CEO Chuck Royce and Co-CIO Francis Gannon discuss how higher rates might benefit bottom-up stock pickers, the potential for quality companies to regain leadership as volatility increases, the possible consequences of global economic recovery for both domestic and non-U.S. small-cap stocks, and the favorable landscape for consumers and its effect on our portfolio positioning.

2015-06-29 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of June 22-26; Getting Ready For a Move Higher? Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

First quarter economic data was largely bearish, as confirmed by last week’s third revision to GDP data. While the .2% decrease was better than the -.7% in the second revision, it was still negative.

2015-06-27 00:00:00 $8 Trillion Alternative Energy Boom Is a Win for Copper by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

As the world’s population continues to grow, and as more people in developing and emerging countries gain access to electricity, the role alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal play should skyrocket. Between now and 2040, a massive $8 trillion will be spent globally on renewables, about two thirds of all energy spending, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Solar power alone is expected to draw $3.7 trillion.

2015-06-26 00:00:00 Time to Consider Municipal High Yield? by David Jurca of Russell Investments

David Jurca explains why investors may want to consider municipal high yield to help manage taxes, especially since it can offer strong tax equivalent yields at a historically attractive level of volatility.

2015-06-26 00:00:00 International Economic Week In Review For the Week of June 22-26; More Good News, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

It appears more and more likely that Japan has shaken off the negative impact of the sales tax hike from a year ago. The EU appears to be growing. Australia, while still growing at a ~2% clip, is feeling the negative impact of the commodity bear market. The US has shaken off the weak 1Q number.

2015-06-25 00:00:00 Unconstrained Global Investing in an Extraordinary Monetary Policy Enviornment by Michael Hasenstab of Franklin Templeton Investments

As we see it, it is only a matter of time before US wages start to rise to levels where inflation is triggered. Using the Fed’s own estimates, we are quite close to what’s considered to be full employment. To us, this does not justify 0% interest rates.

2015-06-25 00:00:00 Batteries Not Included: Midyear Stock Market Outlook by Burt White, Jeffrey Buchbinder of LPL Financial

Expect the bull market to continue through 2015. In the stock market, 2015 has felt like déjà vu. In 2014, the year began with a tough first quarter and finished strong. After a weak start to the year, we believe that corporate America will provide a much needed boost for the second half and 2015 may also finish strong?—?providing the seventh year of positive returns, in the 5?–?9% range we forecast.

2015-06-24 00:00:00 Putting the Pieces Together: Midyear Economic Outlook by John Canally Jr. of LPL Financial

We continue to expect that the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher over the remainder of 2015, once economic conditions recover from yet another harsh winter—and other transitory factors—that held back growth in the early part of 2015. This forecast matches the average growth rate over the past 50 years, and is based on contributions from consumer spending, business capital spending, and housing, which are poised to advance at historically average or better growth rates in 2015. Net exports and the government sector should trail be hind.

2015-06-23 00:00:00 Pickles?! by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

I have been traveling a lot recently and this week will be no exception as I am in Victoria, British Columbia currently and am leaving for Vancouver tomorrow. While traveling is exciting and educational, it is also exhausting. Moreover, sleeping in strange beds doesn’t help the exhaustion factor. To be sure, I often find myself suffering from dyssomnia in a fitful sleep accompanied by some pretty strange dreams.

2015-06-23 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: What Does the Greek Crisis Mean for Financial Markets? by Jeffrey Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc.

The calendar shows a fair amount of economic data in the coming week, but attention is likely to be focused abroad. After many years (some would say decades) of percolating, the issue of Greece and the Eurozone is coming to a conclusion.

2015-06-22 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of June 15-19; Better News But Still A Touch Slog by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Let’s start by looking at the leading indicators which were up .7. The breadth of the LEIs was very positive; there were no negative numbers while only 1 (the average work week) was 0.0.

2015-06-22 00:00:00 Global Review and Equity Commentary: May 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

The decline in U.S. economic activity during the first quarter was more than earlier estimates, and appears to have weakened business sentiment in other parts of the world. Most of the fall in U.S. aggregate output was due to temporary factors such as adverse weather and port disruptions that led to delayed export shipments. The stronger dollar also reduced the earnings growth of large U.S. corporations with a global footprint.

2015-06-19 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: June by Team of Franklin Templeton Investments

In spite of lingering concerns about Greece’s fate, the European economy would appear to have hit a sweet spot marked by steadily improving growth and inflation figures along with declining unemployment.

2015-06-19 00:00:00 Gold and Health Care Stocks Get a Clean Bill of Health by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Even though the Federal Reserve announced this week that it would wait a little longer to raise rates, spooked investors fled to gold bullion, helping to drive prices above $1,200 an ounce. It was the greatest single-session surge by percentage in nearly a month and a half for the yellow metal, widely seen as a safe-haven investment. As I told MarketWatch yesterday, $1,200 is an important threshold for gold miners because it helps increase profitability and spur production.

2015-06-19 00:00:00 Federal Reserve, Abenomics, Trans-Pacific Partnership by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Central banks around the world have held interest rates at or near zero for quite a while. This action was justified in the wake of the financial crisis. But there are those who think that zero, in this setting, has become a dangerous concept.

2015-06-19 00:00:00 ECRI: "Shifting Patterns in Recessions and Recoveries" by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

ECRI's most recent article presents slides and notes from ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk at the Madrid Fund Forum conference. He discussed the relationship between lower trend growth and recessions. "ECRI believes that minimally we're returning to a period of more frequent recessions, as we saw in much of the twentieth century....Going back to at least the 1970s, growth has been stair-stepping down during each successive expansion."

2015-06-17 00:00:00 Stocks: Keep Your Eye on the Bull by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Since the equity rally of the past few years has brought most stock indexes to new highs, investors increasingly have expressed skepticism about the possibility of future gains. It is an understandable concern—but it also is misplaced. Stocks still carry attractive valuations, if not as attractive as in past years, and so have ample ability to continue to rise, even if, as expected, the economy only lumbers along the shallow recovery path it has traveled to date.

2015-06-16 00:00:00 Stay with Equities, but Prepare for Turbulence by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities were up fractionally last week, with the S&P 500 Index up 0.1% as seven out of ten sectors traded higher. Strong retail sales figures kept the focus on the Federal Reserve and the prospect of higher interest rates. Concerns over Greece’s debt problems pushed volatility levels higher. The banking industry performed well, while cyclical areas of the market such as transportation lagged.

2015-06-14 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of June 8-12; Yes, the Rally Is Getting Long In the Tooth by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Although there were few economic numbers this week, what was released was positive. Retail sales bounced back and the JOLTs survey continued to show an improving labor market. But additional signs of stock market topping emerged. Ideally, the market still needs an expanding economy that translates into higher revenue growth rather than margin expansion to move meaningfully higher.

2015-06-14 00:00:00 The People’s Republic of Debt by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

Among the most important questions for all investors and businessmen is, how will China manage its future and the problems it faces? There are many problems, some of them monumental – and at the same time there is an amazing amount of opportunity and potential. Understanding the challenges and deciphering the likely outcomes is itself an immense challenge.

2015-06-12 00:00:00 It Pays to Be Choosy in Emerging Markets by Morgan Harting of AllianceBernstein

Emerging equities remain rich in return opportunity, in our view. But as their recent whiplash behavior illustrates, capitalizing on this potential will require far greater selectivity than it did in the past.

2015-06-12 00:00:00 U.S. Economy Turns on the Afterburners-Is a Rate Hike Next? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

So when will rates be raised again? Next Wednesday the world will tune in to see if Fed Chair Janet Yellen can answer that question. Though it's anyone's guess what she'll say, there's no denying that many of the economic indicators the Fed is keeping an eye on have sharply improved lately.

2015-06-12 00:00:00 Are We Mismeasuring the Economy? by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

The problem may not be with growth but rather the way we measure it.

2015-06-12 00:00:00 Tug of War by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

The current stalemate in the US market could continue for some time, with bouts of volatility and pullbacks expected as the market anticipates the initial rate hike. Be prepared by staying diversified and consider buying protection, but we would view such an event as the pause that refreshes and help set up the next sustainable bull run. Investors should also look overseas as the aggressive stimulus measures being taken by the ECB appear to be beneficially impacting the economy, and may help equities perform better in the coming months.

2015-06-11 00:00:00 Developed Europe: Economy Trends Update April 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

After ending the year 2014 on a positive note, the Developed Europe economies gained further momentum in the early months of 2015. Between January and March, the region’s 19-country single currency bloc, the Euro-zone, expanded its GDP 0.4 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2014 and 1 percent from the year-ago period, recording its fastest pace of growth in nearly two years. Economists and commentators though had expected GDP to increase 0.5 percent for the quarter and 1.1 percent on an annual basis.

2015-06-10 00:00:00 U.S. Stands Out Amid Global Sluggishness by Scott Mather of PIMCO

A year ago, PIMCO said the world was in The New Neutral, as the path to recovery dragged on years after the financial crisis. Last month, at our annual Secular Forum in which our global investment professionals gathered to discuss our long-term outlook, we affirmed that thesis, and we recently published “The New Neutral Revisited” detailing and updating our views. Scott Mather, Chief Investment Officer U.S. Core Strategies, discusses how the outlook for the U.S. differs, to a degree, from other large economies.

2015-06-09 00:00:00 Don't Deny The Jobs Recovery by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

You would think that after 63 straight months of growth in private sector payrolls, the longest streak since the 1930s, everyone would agree that the job-market recovery is for real. But, that ain’t the case. A quick Google search still uncovers a whole bunch of pessimistic appraisals of jobs and the economy.

2015-06-09 00:00:00 China’s Roaring Market by Edmund Harriss of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management

Chinese stock markets have roared in the past year, since May 2014. The Chinese government has announced a $40 billion “Silk Road” fund to build a network of railways and air links to bring China and Central Asia closer together; China launched the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank in October 2014, and since then there has been a rush to join, not only from China’s neighbors, but also five of the G7 leading economies.

2015-06-08 00:00:00 My Top 3 Fabulous Pharma Stocks by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs

I am a fervent believer that investment decisions should be made based on the relative merits of each individual investment under consideration. However, my anecdotal observations and experience suggests that many investors do not embrace that approach. This is especially true regarding investment decisions on common stocks. Instead of focusing on the opportunities and valuations available from select individual businesses, many investors are obsessed, and I allege blinded by generalized views or beliefs about the overall market and/or the economy.

2015-06-07 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of June 1-5; Are the Weekly Charts Topping Out? Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

The Federal Reserve released the latest Beige Book, which offered the following overview of the economy.

2015-06-05 00:00:00 Recovery Rallies, Is Six Years Enough by Craig Callahan of ICON Advisers, Inc.

Contrary to the bearish headlines, we at ICON believe that we are in the midst of a long-term recovery. With our valuation methodology as our guide, we believe there is enough value in the market to sustain a continued recovery. Furthermore, as we saw with the post 1987 market recovery, bull markets can last longer than 6 years. We believe there is still room for market growth in the current environment.

2015-06-05 00:00:00 America Is Woefully Unprepared for Retirement by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Solutions are elusive. We cannot turn back the clock and increase our saving rates or invest with the benefit of hindsight. But from here forward, we need to take a hard look at the structure of public and private retirement systems and reinforce financial literacy among beneficiaries.

2015-06-05 00:00:00 Employment, Wages and Housing Leading The Economy Higher by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

The majority of US economic data points to strength. Employment growth is the best since the 1990s. Wages and compensation are growing at the highest rates since the recession ended. And housing, both new construction and sales, are the best in 8 years. The overall economic trend remains positive.

2015-06-05 00:00:00 Billions and Billions Pour into India and China by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

It’s been a little over a year since Narendra Modi took office in India, and so far the results have been mostly positive for the South Asian country and the surrounding region. Among other achievements, Modi’s government has managed to enact important policy reforms, increase public investments in infrastructure, lower food inflation and generally open India up to business on a global scale.

2015-06-05 00:00:00 Those Were the Days, My Friend by Paul Kasriel of Econtrarian

Although I believe that the nature of the cause of the last recession, a financial crisis, is the principal factor accounting for the relative weakness of the current economic expansion, I also believe that the trend rate of growth of U.S. real GDP in the decades to come will be less than that in the preceding decades. The primary reason for this is related to demographics. A secondary reason is that the credit excesses that preceded the last recession will not be allowed to occur again for some time.

2015-06-04 00:00:00 Why Oil Price Rally Isn’t a Surprise, but Iron Ore’s Price Should Stay Low by Tucker Scott of Franklin Templeton Investments

While oil has dealt with a relatively recent increase in supply, iron ore has been suffering through a long-term glut. And, based on our analysis of future supply/demand trends, we expect the abundance of iron ore to continue—and possibly increase.

2015-06-04 00:00:00 China in the Spotlight by Eswarie Subrahmanyam Balan of WisdomTree

While 2014 was a challenging year for emerging markets, the story in 2015 has been substantially different so far. At a country level, both China and Russia have been primary contributors to this recovery.

2015-06-03 00:00:00 Our $1.3 Trillion Government-Assisted Student Loan Crisis by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

I have been wanting to address our exploding student loan crisis for over a year now, but the topic didn’t seem to fit into the normal themes I tackle. Yet in fact, it does: It represents just one more financial/debt crisis facing our country that will surely impact the economy and the investment markets at some point.

2015-06-03 00:00:00 No Quarter: GDP Goes Into Reverse Again by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Although last week was shortened by the Memorial Day holiday, it was busy on the economic front. Last in, first out: The expected downward revision to first quarter real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) brought it into negative territory, for a reading of -0.7%—albeit better than the -0.9% consensus expectation. More on that in a minute.

2015-06-02 00:00:00 Is 3D Printing Following the Railway's Tracks? by Marianne Brunet (Article)

The British Railway Mania of the 1840s is considered the greatest technology hype in history. Although railroad developments were instrumental to the U.K.'s Industrial Revolution, investors ultimately overvalued the technology because they underestimated the costs associated with it. Given the growing excitement around 3D printing, is it possible that we are in for another "hype-cycle"?

2015-06-01 00:00:00 Prick Up Your Ears, People Of The World! by Sebastiao Buck Tocalino of SBTCapital Clube de Investimento

I used to draw a lot when I was growing up. My thoughts would travel on overdrive while I sketched to the sound of classic rock on vinyl. It was introspective, but very entertaining.

2015-05-31 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of May 25-29; Can't Hold Onto New Highs, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Clearly, this expansion has matured. Corporate after-tax earnings are slowing while the combination of the strong dollar and oil price drop is hurting industrial expansion. The lack of stimulus from the oil dividend indicates consumers still aren’t very confident, even though they have more money to spend and unemployment is nearing “full” employment levels. The markets continue to have problems holding onto new highs, which means traders are at minimum cautious about future growth prospects.

2015-05-31 00:00:00 Behold the Power of Buybacks and Dividends by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Buybacks and dividends. The mere mention of either one is often enough to make some investors’ hearts race with excitement and embolden them with confidence that company management is being a better steward of capital.

2015-05-28 00:00:00 The Importance of Liquidity by Byron Wien of Blackstone

Since the axiom “Don’t fight the Fed” came into common parlance, we have all been aware that central bank policy is an important component of market performance. Most of us started out as security or business analysts and believed that fundamental factors like the pace of the economy, earnings growth and interest rates were the drivers of equity values.

2015-05-28 00:00:00 Tantrum Potential at Home, Opportunity Overseas by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

U.S. equities continue to climb, but BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, Russ Koesterich, discusses why the best opportunities may reside outside the United States, which, in fact, has been the case so far this year.

2015-05-28 00:00:00 Half Full or Half Empty by Herbert Abramson, Randall Abramson of Trapeze Asset Management

The ultimate question for investors. Is the glass half full, that is to say are economic backdrops improving to support attractive valuations, or to the contrary, half empty, deteriorating and threatening full valuations?

2015-05-27 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: May by Team of Franklin Templeton Investments

Having come through 2015’s first quarter with virtually no growth, the US economy is generally expected to pick up during the rest of this year. Indeed, as we move into a new quarter and shake off the effects of a significant West Coast dock strike and severe winter weather, forward indicators have pointed toward better growth.

2015-05-27 00:00:00 Moment of Truth For Non-U.S. Markets by Mark Ungewitter of Charter Trust Company

The FTSE All World Ex-US index (VEU) is testing multi-year resistance in both dollar and gold terms. (See Chart 1 below.) Dollar-based investors are obviously interested in dollar thresholds, but why monitor relative strength in gold terms? Because gold provides an alternative base “currency” that measures confidence in the institutions of money and credit. A market making higher highs versus gold is exhibiting organic strength independent of local-currency devaluation or unsound credit expansion.

2015-05-27 00:00:00 The Slowly-Growing Economy Should Persist for Some Time by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

There was little meaningful direction in equity markets last week. Global bond yields generally rose and economic data was mixed.

2015-05-27 00:00:00 Inflation: Dormant, Not Dead by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

Last month we explained why the dreaded threat of hyperinflation hasn’t materialized, and likely wouldn’t materialize, in spite of the huge expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet the past several years, including QE1, 2, and 3.

2015-05-27 00:00:00 For Bond Investors, The Timing of Liftoff Matters by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, breaks down last week's FOMC minutes and public remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Find out why the path of rate hikes and the timing of tightening both matter.

2015-05-27 00:00:00 Fun with GDP by Scott Brown of Raymond James

The current economic expansion is rapidly approaching its six-year anniversary. Contrary to popular belief, the likelihood of entering a recession does not depend on the age of the expansion. However, there are other issues. In this recovery, average growth in the first quarter of the year has been well below the average of the other three quarters, leading to some doubts about the quality of the seasonal adjustment. Looking ahead, the government will introduce two new gauges with the annual benchmark revisions in late July.

2015-05-27 00:00:00 How Is Capital Spending Trending? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

The current pace of expenditures on property, plant, and equipment dampens the likelihood of an accelerated economic recovery.

2015-05-25 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of May 18-22; Housing Rebounds But the Markets Continue G by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Last week’s fundamental news was encouraging. Although we’re still in a shallow industrial recession, other sectors of the economy are printing solid results. However, large multi-nationals face sufficient headwinds from a strong dollar, weak international environment and declining oil prices to prevent a sustained advance.

2015-05-23 00:00:00 Rate Hike Ahead? Here’s How to Get Your Portfolio Ready by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Many experts and analysts believe a June rate hike seems very unlikely, but today, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted that one might happen as soon as the end of this year.

2015-05-23 00:00:00 The Affordable Care Act and Low Interest Rates: A One-Two Punch for Health Insurance Portfolios by Chitrang K. Purani and Georgi Popov of PIMCO

Two common themes emerged from a recent PIMCO survey of U.S. health insurers: Underwriting performance will be a larger factor in asset allocation, and there will be more emphasis on liquidity and income. For now, health insurers generally expect increased premium volumes and shifts in insured profiles as a result of the Affordable Care Act. Re-examining investment policies and tiering liquid assets can help investment portfolios maintain flexibility while potentially contributing more to the bottom line.

2015-05-23 00:00:00 Investor Opinions Have Become Extremely Uniform, And That's Not Good by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

Investor opinions have become extremely uniform. By some measures, they are the most uniform in 25 years. In the past, this has corresponded to a period where equities have lacked significant upside momentum. That appears to be a quite likely outcome until investors become more varied in their market outlook than they are today.

2015-05-21 00:00:00 China: A Great Wall of Worry by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Beijing likely will find a way to mitigate the effects of a slowing economy and soaring debt levels—but the risks are high.

2015-05-21 00:00:00 Global Review and Equity Commentary: April 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

As expected, the global economy slowed during the first quarter but should gain momentum in the coming months. The U.S. economy almost came to a standstill during the first three months of the year as adverse winter weather limited activity. Consumer spending moderated and construction activity slowed, while lower oil prices discouraged businesses in that sector from capital investments. The stronger dollar and labor disputes at some of the seaports limited export gains, and led to a widening of the U.S. trade deficit.

2015-05-21 00:00:00 Quality on Sale by Adam Peck of Heartland Advisors

Investor indifference toward strong balance sheets and cash flow has created opportunities in today’s market.

2015-05-21 00:00:00 What a Rate Hike May Mean for Stocks by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

Russ looks back at equity performance following past rate increases to gauge what could be ahead for investors.

2015-05-20 00:00:00 China is Choking on its Own Debt by Joseph Taylor of Loomis Sayles

We have it on good authority. And in this case that authority is an unlikely source – the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). It’s difficult to remember the last time so many paid so little attention to something so vitally important. The revelation came in the bank’s release of its 1Q 2015 Monetary Policy Report on 8 May 2015.

2015-05-19 00:00:00 Devil Inside: Dissecting the Most Popular Valuation Metrics by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Given that first quarter earnings season is largely in the books—and since it’s been a couple of years since I wrote comprehensively about valuation—I am tackling it again this week.

2015-05-19 00:00:00 U.S. Economy: A Variable-Speed Recovery by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

A flat first quarter likely will be followed by one or two quarters of accelerated growth. Then it’s back to the muddle.

2015-05-18 00:00:00 The "New Era" is an Old Story by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

It’s not monetary easing, but the attitude of investors toward risk that distinguishes an overvalued market that continues higher from an overvalued market that is vulnerable to vertical losses. That window of vulnerability has been open for several months now, and the immediacy of our downside concerns would ease (despite obscene valuations) only if market internals and credit spreads were to shift back toward evidence of investor risk-seeking. Meanwhile, there’s no evidence to suggest that historically reliable valuation measures have somehow become irrelevant.

2015-05-17 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of May 11-15; A Really Unimpressive New High, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Last week’s economic news continued to disappoint. Retail sales were weak, industrial production was flat and capacity utilization decreased. As we near the end of the earnings season, the S&P 500 revenue numbers show a decline. While the SPYs made a new high, the mid-caps, small caps and transports failed to confirm, indicating the large cap move higher stands little chance of meaningful follow-through.

2015-05-16 00:00:00 Secular Versus Cyclical: Notes from SIC 2015 by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

The consensus I’m hearing and reading from the 500+ attendees at the recent Strategic Investment Conference is that this was the best ever. It was certainly intense, with more divergent views presented this year than at previous conferences. Plus, the range of topics was rather dramatic. This year I was able to listen to all but one of the presentations, and I want to share with you my notes and takeaway thoughts.

2015-05-16 00:00:00 Explaining the Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Explaining the Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates; Consumers Should Overcome Higher Gas Prices; OPEC and the U.S. Face Off in the Oil Markets

2015-05-12 00:00:00 Dog Days of the U.S. Expansion by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The Kentucky Derby marks the beginning of summer, but ultimately investors must prepare for the coming winter.

2015-05-11 00:00:00 Recognizing the Risks to Financial Stability by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Our hope is that Chair Yellen’s growing recognition of speculative risks will continue, and for the sake of the U.S. economy, that the rather baseless hope of manipulating a “Phillips Curve” or a “wealth effect” will fade. If one believes in these things, it is tempting to think that more monetary easing could be “good” for the economy. If the FOMC recognizes how weak those empirical relationships actually are, and how extreme the financial distortions have become, we might still avoid another financial crisis.

2015-05-11 00:00:00 Economic & Capital Market Summary – First Quarter 2015 by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

Our belief is that a market is simply a clearinghouse for the price of risk and the quantitative easing programs of the central banks of developed countries are distorting the price of risk in our capital markets. As a result, valuations in bonds, stocks, real estate and other assets are distorted.

2015-05-11 00:00:00 Strategic Allocaiton to High Yield Corporate Bonds – Why Now? by Matthew Kennedy of Rainier Investment Management

The demand for higher yielding fixed income investments has never been greater. In the current environment of low yields, from the virtually non-existent rate offered on savings accounts and CDs to the declining, and in some cases negative, yields on global government debt securities, investors are searching for attractive income¬ generating alternatives.

2015-05-11 00:00:00 Corporate Earnings and Inflation by Clyde Kendzierski of Financial Solutions Group

A few months ago our 2015 forecast emphasized several points we began making late last year. Taken together, those points differed dramatically from the prevailing wisdom of the time. As we begin May, they are falling into place.

2015-05-10 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of May 4-8; Mid-Caps Break Trend, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Last week’s economic releases provided much needed bullish news with strong headline numbers from the ISM Services Index and the monthly employment report. But the 1.9% Q/Q decline in productivity was concerning. On the earnings front, with a little over 90% of the S&P 500 companies reporting, total revenues are off 4.1% Y/Y. Adding to the negative backdrop is that future earnings projections continue to move lower. This weak performance on the company level sent the markets lower, with the small caps consolidating recent declines while mid-caps joined in recent trend-breaking.

2015-05-08 00:00:00 The Shocking Truth About Share Buybacks by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs

The value and benefits, or lack thereof, of share buybacks to the future fortunes of a company and their shareholders is one of the most hotly debated subjects on popular financial blogs such as Seeking Alpha. Unfortunately, at least based on my own personal experience, most of the arguments are predicated on opinions and beliefs in lieu of the facts.

2015-05-08 00:00:00 Made In Europe by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial

A weak finish to the month of April 2015 was “made in Europe” as expectations of better global growth weighed on bonds. On Monday, May 4, 2015, the 10-year German government bond yield closed at 0.45%, more than quadrupling over the past two weeks. European strength combined with a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting outcome continued to arrest U.S. dollar strength, a primary driver of the steady decline in inflation and investors’ inflation expectations from mid-2014 through the first quarter of 2015.

2015-05-08 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview and Equity Commentaries: March 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

The global economy is facing subdued growth in the short term, as adverse weather and a stronger currency have slowed the pace of U.S. expansion. Unusually severe winter weather on the U.S. East coast restricted business and consumer activity during the first three months of the year.

2015-05-08 00:00:00 Watching and Waiting by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

Patience can be tough, especially in investing, but that is what is needed at the present time. While a sharp upward move in equities seems unlikely, and the risk of pullbacks is elevated; a grind higher is not something most investors should miss out on. Economic data and the Fed will continue to be in the spotlight, and we expect improvement that will lead to both a Fed rate hike and increased equity volatility—so be prepared. Across the pond, political uncertainty exists, but money supply should be the main focus, which could bode well for the possibility of future European equity gain

2015-05-08 00:00:00 Americans Take 3-Trillion-Mile Road Trip, Dollar Corrects and Commodities Rebound by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The busy summer travel season is at our doorstep, starting this Mother’s Day weekend, and with that comes stronger fuel demand.

2015-05-06 00:00:00 Can Assad Survive? by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Rebels in Syria have been making steady gains against forces loyal to the Assad regime and these gains have recently accelerated. The recent rebel victories are raising questions about the Assad regime’s ability to survive. In this report, we recap the problems the Syrian government faces, including internal dissent and military losses. We discuss the growing evidence of a Turkey-Saudi axis that may be aiding the rebels to weaken or eliminate Assad and pressure Iran. From there, we examine the potential Iranian and American responses to the rebel gains and support from Riyadh and Ankara.

2015-05-06 00:00:00 The Mistake Eveyone Is Making About Fed Rate Hikes by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

With the Federal Reserve now indicating that they are "really serious" about raising interest rates, there have come numerous articles and analysis discussing the impact on asset prices. The general thesis is based on averages of historical tendencies as discussed recently by David Rosenberg in his daily commentary.

2015-05-05 00:00:00 David Rosenberg - Bullish on Stocks by Robert Huebscher (Article)

The consensus narrative is negative for the economy and U.S. equity markets. But according to David Rosenberg, that is wrong. A recession is three years away, he said, and even if the Fed raises rates, equities will perform strongly this year.

2015-05-05 00:00:00 Who Is Afraid of the Inflation Ogre? by Liz Ann Sonders, Christian Menegatti of Charles Schwab

When many commentators and investors show a high conviction about something, it is perhaps a good time to explore how things could move in the opposite direction. After several trillions of quantitative easing (QE) from the major global central banks, and with trillions of QE likely ahead, the consensus appears spooked by the specter of global disinflation and deflation. The possibility of a higher inflation scenario seems to have fallen completely off the radar.

2015-05-05 00:00:00 Americas: Economy Trends Update - April 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

Lower oil and commodity prices as well as changes in currency rates continue to be the main drivers of economic trends in the Americas. The weak export outlook for energy and commodities have hurt the prospects of large economies such as Brazil, which is expected to see a decline in economic output this year.

2015-05-05 00:00:00 The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

There is a financial crisis on the horizon. It is a crisis that all the Central Bank interventions in the world cannot cure. It is a financial crisis that will continue to change the economic landscape of America for decades to come.

2015-05-04 00:00:00 On My Radar: “The Rodney Dangerfield Expansion” by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group

"Earnings don't move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve board. And whatever you do, focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity. Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets." - Stan Druckenmiller

2015-05-04 00:00:00 Two Point Three Sigmas Above the Norm by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

If you’re waiting for stocks to become overvalued by 2 standard deviations, we’re already past that, and we would not be at all surprised to observe another decade of negative total returns on the S&P 500, as we observed the last time valuations were similar on the most reliable measures.

2015-05-03 00:00:00 SPY's Trading Range is as Tight as December Before a 5% Drop by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

The trading range for SPY is tighter now than at any time since December before a 5% drop. SPY's trading range is likely to expand and, on balance, it seems more likely that the expansion will be to the downside rather than the upside. That has been the most common outcome in the past and there are a number of supporting reasons to suggest that it will be the case this time as well.

2015-05-02 00:00:00 Pondering Halftime Adjustments by Rick Vollaro of Pinnacle Advisory Group

At the beginning of the year, we wrote about an aging bull market that we thought could be ridden, but with the caveat that one wouldn’t want to take too much risk given the magnitude of the move, current valuation levels in the U.S., and an overall evidence profile that was clearly mixed with pockets of both strength and weakness. When weighing the evidence, our dashboards offered no reason to reach for additional risk this late in the cycle, but instead we tried to focus on some big picture themes that could help us find attractive opportunities to position for.

2015-05-02 00:00:00 Hope Is Not A Strategy, Before Investing Have A Precise Calculation Of Return In Mind by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs

Many people make the mistake of investing in a stock simply with the hope or belief that it will or might go up in value. However, there is a very popular mantra that states “Hope is not a strategy.”

2015-04-30 00:00:00 Why 2015 Does Not Look Like Y2K by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

Russ explains why today’s U.S. technology rally is different from the tech bubble we experienced back in 2000. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index hit a new record last week, as a broader rally in stocks helped nudge it past its 2000 peak. At the same time, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and initial public offering (IPO) activities continue to gather speed.

2015-04-30 00:00:00 The Ideology of IS by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Atlantic Magazine recently published an article about Islamic State (IS) that examined its theology and ideology. This article along with a paper from the Brookings Institute form the basis of our report. In our report this week, we examine the intellectual foundations of IS, showing how it evolved from two different sources of thought. We follow with an analysis of the concept of the Caliphate and the critical importance it has in Islamic theology, along with an examination of the eschatology of IS. We discuss the consequences of IS’s ideology and conclude with potential market ramification

2015-04-28 00:00:00 M&A: Bubble Trouble Ahead? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Talk of an unsustainable surge in mergers and acquisitions is premature. The current level of activity suggests that corporate managers will continue to buy rather than build.

2015-04-28 00:00:00 As Milestones Are Crossed, Be Selective by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock Investment Management

Stocks around the world rewrote the record books last week. In the United States, the Nasdaq Composite Index eclipsed its 2000 peak, advancing 3.26% to close the week at 5,092. In Japan, the Nikkei Index climbed above 20,000 for the first time in 15 years, while China's equity market continues to defy gravity.

2015-04-27 00:00:00 Airlines Report on Q1 Earnings by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

A recent Deutsche Bank report projects a total airline industry first-quarter pretax profit of $3.5 billion, up from $700 million this time last year—a 400-percent improvement.

2015-04-27 00:00:00 Time to Love Emerging Markets Again? by (Article)

45-year industry veteran, Tom White, CIO of Thomas White International, returns to offer his thoughts on what he feels are the most promising emerging markets for this year and beyond. He also explains why investors worried about a repeat of the ‘2013 taper tantrum’ may be missing the big picture.

2015-04-27 00:00:00 On My Radar: Recession Watch – Keep an Eye on This Chart by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group

Understanding when a recession might begin is important to our long-term financial health. Why? The stock market declines approximately 40% during recessions.

2015-04-27 00:00:00 Where's the Hyper-Inflation? by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors

If we had a dollar for every time we’ve heard about the threat of hyperinflation, we’d probably have enough money to never worry about it.

2015-04-26 00:00:00 US Equity and Economic Review For the Week of April 20-24: Is This Another False Break-Out?, Edition by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

After a series of first quarter economic disappointments, last week’s financial news provided much needed ammunition for optimism. The latest new and existing home sales numbers indicated the housing market is healing while the slight uptick in durable goods orders stopped that data series’ recent set of declines. The markets rallied as a result, printing at or close to new highs. The market’s technical picture, however, is still unconvincing; the SPYs chart looks like a short term top while the Transports and Dow’s failure to confirm the QQQ’s recent advance adds to the caution.

2015-04-26 00:00:00 The Third and Final Transformation of Monetary Policy by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

My good friend Dr. Woody Brock makes the case that an unintended consequence of QE is that the Federal Reserve’s normal transmission of monetary policy through periodic changes in the fed funds rate has been vitiated. He contends that soon we will no longer care about the fed funds rate and will be focused on other sets of rates.

2015-04-25 00:00:00 Why International Diversification Matters Today by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock Investment Management

The tendency of U.S. investors to invest close to home is understandable, but it’s not optimal. Russ has three reasons why international diversification matters now more than ever for U.S. investors.

2015-04-24 00:00:00 BofA Is Confusing Liquidity Fueled And Secular Bull Markets by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

Over the past couple of years, there has been a growing chorus of individuals claiming that the financial markets have finally shaken the shackles of the secular bear market that began at the turn of the century. This, of course, suggests that the markets have now begun the next long-term secular bull market.

2015-04-24 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary: The Eurozone Is Seeing Green Shoots but Isn’t Out of the Woods by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

The Eurozone Is Seeing Green Shoots but Isn't Out of the Woods; Gauging a Country's Potential for Growth; The Trans-Pacific Partnership Might Actually Happen

2015-04-23 00:00:00 Tax Receipts Flash Economic Warning Sign by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management

With "tax day" now firmly behind us, it is expected that 2015 will show a record level of tax collections. This is a good thing, right? Maybe not.

2015-04-23 00:00:00 Could Aflac’s Contentiousness Spell Wealth Creation? by William Smead of Smead Capital Management

At Smead Capital Management, we like to combine the qualitative aspects of a meritorious company with the temporary contentiousness of deeply out-of-favor psychology. We have found in our research that using qualitative attributes alone can be very expensive. Additionally, we feel that just buying stocks off of the out-of-favor junk pile can lead you to bankruptcy court if the companies fail to turnaround.

2015-04-22 00:00:00 Sizing Up Small Caps by Burt White of LPL Financial

The Russell 2000 Index hit a fresh all-time high last week (on tax day, April 15, 2015) and has outpaced large caps by 205 basis points (2.05%) year to date. Although valuations are on the high side, the factors that have driven recent small cap strength, in our view, remain largely intact. Small cap technicals appear bullish, with positive relative strength and an upward sloping 40-week moving average.

2015-04-21 00:00:00 Has The US Dollar Topped Out, Or Headed Much Higher? by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

The US dollar’s value has been on a tear since last summer, with the greenback’s value surging more than 20% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

2015-04-20 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Economy Trends Update – April 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

With the exception of energy exporter Russia, economic conditions appear to have taken a turn for the better in emerging Europe.

2015-04-17 00:00:00 Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – First Quarter 2015 by Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management

Over the more than two thousand years of economic history, a clear record emerges regarding the relationship between the level of indebtedness of a nation and its resultant pace of economic activity. The once flourishing and powerful Mesopotamian, Roman and Bourbon dynasties, as well as the British empire, ultimately lost their great economic vigor due to the inability to prosper under crushing debt levels.

2015-04-17 00:00:00 Irrational Expectations by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia

Do we have irrational expectations for the Chinese economy? On the one hand, we asked China to restructure and rebalance its economy, and it has delivered. It shrunk its state sector, and privately owned firms now account for more than 80% of employment and almost all new job creation. Almost all prices are set by the market. Investment growth is slowing and consumption is now the engine of economic expansion. China’s service sector is now larger than its manufacturing and construction sectors.

2015-04-17 00:00:00 Junior Mining Companies Have Taken a Senior Role by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

For the past decade, junior mining companies have outperformed senior miners at finding new mineral deposits and generating wealth for investors.

2015-04-15 00:00:00 Emerging Markets of Tomorrow by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree

This week Professor Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz chatted with Gavin Serkin, Emerging Markets (EM) Editor at Bloomberg News. They also spoke to Worth Wray, Chief Strategist at Mauldin Economics, whose current focus is also on EM and the implications of a stronger U.S. dollar.

2015-04-14 00:00:00 Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter by John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management

John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX), looks back at the performance of gold over the first quarter, noting that "Gold and gold mining shares appear to be as contrarian today as in 1999, before a decade?plus run in which bullion rose nearly seven?fold in US dollar terms."

2015-04-14 00:00:00 Not-So-Great Expectations: Why Real Interest Rates Won’t Soar by Shane Shepherd of Research Affiliates

In a recent piece from Research Affiliates, Shane Shepherd, Senior Vice President, Head of Macro Research, looks at the consensus on interest rates: they are set to fly. But if, as Research Affiliates expects, savings accelerate and real GDP grows slowly, then interest rates won’t rise very much anytime soon.

2015-04-14 00:00:00 The Iran Framework by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

On April 2, the P5+1 and Iran announced a framework to deal with Iran’s nuclear program. The framework is a roadmap to establishing a final agreement in June and could be a major step toward delaying Iran’s entry into the “nuclear club.” This report begins with a short history of Iran’s nuclear program. Next, we review the details of the framework and address the broader policy issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. An analysis of the real issue, regional hegemony, follows along with a review of the political factors of the deal. We conclude with the potential market effects.

2015-04-12 00:00:00 Are We Doomed to Weaker Growth by Hale Stewart of Hale Stewart

Any rally still faces strong headwinds. With a PE of 20.47, equities are already expensive. The strong dollar and weaker overseas economies are hampering general earnings growth while oil’s price drop is decimating the energy sector. And the percentage of NASDAQ and NYSE stocks about the 50 day EMA is approaching overbought levels. Without a meaningful change in either the earnings or valuation environment, any advance appears limited to at most 5%. That places a premium of stock picking and allocation.

2015-04-11 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Today’s Oil Retreat Is at Odds with Long-Term Trends; A New Bank Creates Controversy in Asia; Solving the U.S. Wage Conundrum

2015-04-11 00:00:00 Slip Sliding Sideways by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

Volatility will likely continue and more sideways action could be in store for the US equity market. We believe US economic data will start to rebound, helping push stocks higher in the second half of the year. The Fed remains in focus, but a rate hike is not likely until the latter half of 2015, which has helped slow the dollar’s upward momentum; potentially comforting the market and letting businesses better react. Better near-term opportunities may exist overseas as the Eurozone economy is improving and Japan seems poised to rebound from soft data.

2015-04-10 00:00:00 The Dollar and the Fed: A Love-Hate Relationship by Rick Harrell of Loomis Sayles

The US job market continues to plow ahead, leading many to believe Fed rate hikes are coming later this year. However, the pace of hikes may be slower than expected. The Fed is facing a “dollar dilemma” as it evaluates US economic outperformance.

2015-04-08 00:00:00 Earnings Recession? by Burt White of LPL Financial

Earnings season kicks off this week (April 6?–?10) with Alcoa set to report first quarter 2015 earnings on Wednesday, April 8. This earnings season has received a great deal of attention in recent weeks because it may produce the first year-over-year decline in S&P 500 operating earnings since the tail end of the financial crisis during the third quarter of 2009. We preview earnings season and highlight reasons not to fear a potential decline.

2015-04-08 00:00:00 Policy Paranoia by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates

The present version of policy paranoia encompasses concerns over impending interest rate hikes, the rapid appreciation of the US dollar, a bloated US government balance sheet, weak international economies and increased probability of a crisis in certain Latin American countries. While legitimate, we do not believe the current ghosts are any more imminently destructive today than over the past six years.

2015-04-08 00:00:00 Economists in Glass Houses by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

For many economists, the chicken and egg question is, which came first, consumption or production? What drives growth? Let’s continue with our series on debt, in which I have been contrasting my views with those of Paul Krugman.

2015-04-08 00:00:00 U.S. and Canada: Continued Recovery With Some Potential for Headwinds by Ed Devlin, Mike Cudzil of PIMCO

?Each quarter, PIMCO investment professionals from around the world gather in Newport Beach to discuss the firm’s outlook for the global economy and financial markets. In the following interview, portfolio managers Ed Devlin and Mike Cudzil discuss PIMCO’s cyclical outlook for Canada and the U.S..

2015-04-07 00:00:00 Behind Arnott's Strategy for PIMCO's All Asset Funds by John Coumarianos (Article)

If you thought a stretch of subpar performance would shake a fund manager's confidence, you'd be wrong in the case of Rob Arnott. Through Research Affiliates, his Newport Beach firm most famous for its fundamental indexing strategies, Arnott manages PIMCO's All Asset funds. These include PIMCO All Asset (PAAIX) and PIMCO All Asset All Authority (PAUIX).

2015-04-07 00:00:00 A Q1 Letter to Clients: Ben Bernanke on Interest Rates by Dan Richards (Article)

Every quarter since 2008, I have posted a template for a client letter. This letter can be used as a starting point to provide an overview of the period that just ended and thoughts looking forward. This quarter's letter addresses questions from clients about why interest rates are so low and when they are likely to rise.

2015-04-07 00:00:00 Margin Levels Look Safe Despite Tepid Economic Growth by Charlie Dreifus of The Royce Funds

Portfolio Manager Charlie Dreifus comments on the Fed's March statements and the first quarter's economic lull, discusses why dividend-paying stocks remain an attractive investment option, and makes a case for risk management in the current climate.

2015-04-07 00:00:00 The New World Order: Part IV by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

The final installment of our series examines how, in light of winning the Cold War, policymakers have been unable to settle on a set of key priorities and offers glimpses of a new policy emerging. The US never wanted to be a superpower; its founding story is one of wresting independence away from a colonial power. Now that the existential threat of communism is over, the political class has struggled to create a foreign policy that can simultaneously provide the required hegemonic global public goods and create a working economic policy and political coalition that will build domestic harmony.

2015-04-06 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Correction Looming? by Jeff Miller of New Arc Investments

After a week loaded with economic data there are plenty of fresh economic worries. In addition, the Fed seems ready to act in spite of some weak data. This means that good news is (finally) good news, and bad news will be bad. For economic and market skeptics, it signals a market shift that they see as long overdue.

2015-04-06 00:00:00 Stock-Flow Accounting and the Coming $10 Trillion Loss in Paper Wealth by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

The failure to recognize that stock-flow consistency must hold in the economy and the financial markets is the basis for an enormous amount of misunderstanding in both fields. That omission of clear thinking about the link between economics and finance contributes to misguided policies that ignore the impact of financial distortions on the real economy, and invite speculation, malinvestment, and ultimately financial crisis.

2015-04-05 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Correction Looming? by Jeff Miller of New Arc Investments

No one has a good, verifiable, real-time track record at predicting small corrections. Meanwhile, many investors get sidelined because they read an article or saw a chart suggesting that “the big one” was right ahead. Some people have been waiting for years for the correction so that they can get back in the stock market. Even when the correction finally comes they will be losers – and that assumes the ability to pull the trigger when things look bad!

2015-04-02 00:00:00 Market's March Madness by Burt White of LPL Financial

With the NCAA Final Four set, we share our own Final Four for stock market investing: economy, earnings, technicals, and valuations. With valuations above average and the economy slowing during first quarter of 2015, our championship game comes down to earnings and technicals. Based on our assessment of these four factors, we expect stock market investors will be “cutting down the nets” due to potential mid- to-high-single-digit stock market gains in 2015.

2015-04-02 00:00:00 Optimism amid a global view of equities by Todd A. Bassion of Delaware Investments

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reported on Wednesday that it expects India’s economy to grow by 7.7% in 2015, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world. This puts India in a position to possibly outpace China, where growth is slowing to the government’s official target of approximately 7%.

2015-04-01 00:00:00 Things That Go Bump in the Night by Dwaine Van Vuuren of

The U.S economy appears unstoppable right now. Just about every leading and co-incident indicator you can think of is pointing to positive growth. Among the hundreds of indicators we follow for our models on a daily basis, we have discovered a few that are displaying worrying trends and flagging a future recession. It should be pointed out that a handful of indicators flagging recession should not mean we have to push the panic button. A large raft of indicators all concurring is what you should be looking for, and right now a large raft of indicators is confirming economic growth.

2015-04-01 00:00:00 Geopolitical Risk — The Fear and Reality for Financial Markets by Colin Moore of Columbia Management

Given the threat of geopolitical risk, it is reasonable to question why global financial markets remain so buoyant. The answer may partly be the constant nature of geopolitical risk. Consider the French proverb “plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose” (the more things change, the more they stay the same).

2015-04-01 00:00:00 Why Fed Patience on Rate Hikes Is Likely to Continue by John P. Calamos, Sr. and Gary Black of Calamos Investments

John and Gary discuss how lackluster economic data and low inflation could influence the Fed’s timetable for raising short-term interest rates.

2015-03-31 00:00:00 Exploring Four Myths by Byron Wien of Blackstone

In talking with investors, I find four concepts prevail among the consensus that I believe may be wrong. In the interest of full disclosure, it is fair to say that at various points in time I have subscribed to each of these ideas. They are: 1. American Exceptionalism is a thing of the past. 2. The price of oil is likely to stay low for a long time. 3. Europe’s economy is in a slow growth deflationary trap. 4. Abenomics is not working, and Japan is in danger of falling back into a recession. I decided to explore each of these

2015-03-31 00:00:00 Fit & Focused by Mark R. Kiesel of PIMCO

Many powerful forces are driving markets and asset prices; chief among them are global monetary policy, technicals and fundamentals. We use rigorous top-down and bottom-up analysis to identify the best sectors and companies around the world. We see opportunities in the U.S. (cyclical consumer and housing sectors), Europe (equities, bank capital securities, high yield bonds and corporate hybrids), China (property, technology and Macau) and Japan (cyclical industries, exporters and financials).

2015-03-31 00:00:00 The New World Order: Part III by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management

In the third installment of our series, we examine how policymakers coped with the superpower role. We examine how policymakers attempted to resolve the tensions created between the desires of domestic constituencies and foreign superpower obligations. We offer a history of how the U.S. managed these differences, with an analysis of Roosevelt’s political configuration and how the Reagan Revolution adjusted to the failures of the first program, detailing these periods with charts. We explain the capability and willingness of the U.S. to continue providing the global public goods to the world.

2015-03-30 00:00:00 Eating Our Seed Corn: The Causes of U.S. Economic Stagnation, and the Way Forward by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

The U.S. has become a nation preoccupied with eating its seed corn; placing consumption over investment, outsourcing its jobs, hollowing out its middle class, and accumulating increasing debt burdens to do so. What our nation needs most is to adopt fiscal policies that direct those seeds to productive soil, and to reject increasingly arbitrary monetary policies that encourage the nation to focus on what is paper instead of what is real.

2015-03-29 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for an Economic Spring Thaw? by Jeff Miller of New Arc Investments

In the absence of real data it is easy and tempting to speculate. Unlike last week, the week ahead features an avalanche of data – more in both quantity and importance than we have seen in a month. With some recent significant reports showing economic improvement we expect a change of focus.

2015-03-28 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: February 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices gained during February on expectations that the central banks in Europe and Japan would continue their quantitative easing programs, while the U.S. Federal Reserve could possibly delay its interest rate hikes. At the same time, economic trends from most major economies remained relatively stable. After two quarters of robust gains, the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace during the fourth quarter of 2014, as expected.

2015-03-27 00:00:00 The Monetary Illusion by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The long-term consequences of global QE are likely to permanently impair living standards for generations to come while creating a false illusion of reviving prosperity.

2015-03-26 00:00:00 OFR: Assessing The Risk Of Overvalued Markets by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

A Review Of The Office Of Financial Research report on valuation risks and consequences.

2015-03-26 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview: February 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

The global economic outlook improved in February, helped by encouraging data from some of the largest countries as well as supportive monetary policy measures. Monthly job additions in the U.S. exceeded expectations in February, continuing the robust trend from last year. Though wages are yet to see meaningful growth, the strengthening labor market should help the U.S. economy sustain the current pace of expansion.

2015-03-25 00:00:00 Can ECB Policy Heal Europe’s Ills? by Mike Amey, Andrew Bosomworth, Lorenzo Pagani of PIMCO

In this interview, Managing Directors Mike Amey, Andrew Bosomworth and Lorenzo Pagani discuss the conclusions from PIMCO’s quarterly Cyclical Forum in March 2015 and how they influence our European investment strategy. They also delve into the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet expansion on growth and inflation and reflect on Europe’s improving economic health.

2015-03-24 00:00:00 The Economic Outlook by George Mokrzan of Huntington National Bank

The United States forecast is for solid average annual economic growth of 3.1% in 2015 -- fastest in the economic recovery to date overall, although areas of the economy with high energy or international exposure will likely encounter headwinds. Strengthening employment conditions, continual improvements in consumer finances and steadily rising housing markets are likely to reestablish the consumer’s lead role in the U.S. economy in 2015.

2015-03-24 00:00:00 Don't Fret Student Debt by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

For the past six years, investors have faced one fear after another. One of those fears has been the more than $1 trillion of student loan debt outstanding. This debt is up 160% since the start of 2006 (and growing) while the share of student loans with payments 90 days late, or longer, has risen from 6.4% to 11.3%.

2015-03-24 00:00:00 The New World Order: Part II by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

In the second installment of our four-part series we focus on two themes. First, we examine the global public goods the superpower provides, and second, we analyze how the U.S. has done so. The global hegemon often faces tensions between the desires of domestic constituencies and its foreign obligations. Every superpower negotiates these pressures and each tends to have its own ways of meeting both objectives. However, no superpower can subjugate the goals and aspirations of its citizens indefinitely. If the cost of hegemony becomes too high, a nation may be unable to maintain the position.

2015-03-24 00:00:00 U.S. Trade: Shortchanged by a Strong Dollar? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Worries that the elevated value of the greenback will crimp U.S. exports—and hurt corporate profits—are overstated.

2015-03-23 00:00:00 Dividend Value Investing: No Time for Suspension of Disbelief by Meggan Walsh of Invesco Blog

When Hollywood tells a story, the expectation is that viewers are willing to suspend disbelief to fully immerse themselves in the plot. But when the market tells a story, suspending disbelief may result in overly complacent investors who blithely ignore the potential downside risk of a profit cycle in its later stages, which we see today through the lens of our full-cycle perspective.

2015-03-21 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

What Is Full Employment, and Are We There Yet?; Negative Interest Rates Are Spreading Across Europe; The Return of the U.S. Debt Ceiling

2015-03-21 00:00:00 Stuck in Neutral by Rob Isbitts of Sungarden Investment Research

We see emphasis on “neutrality” in outlook in several of the indicators we follow at Sungarden, including our Sungarden® Stock Scoring System. From a fundamental and technical standpoint, we see fewer screaming long-term buys than we have in some time, yet we also don’t see too many situations that signal pending disaster.

2015-03-21 00:00:00 The Fat Pitch Weekly Market Summary by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

Strong price and breadth suggest the uptrend from the March low has further to go. A dip early in the week is a high probability buy set up. But gains from here are likely to be short lived; nibble traders may want to sell into strong gains on the expectation of weakness over the next month.

2015-03-20 00:00:00 Northern Trust Perspective by Team of Northern Trust

The long-telegraphed launch of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) has added some accelerant to financial market trends in place so far this year. European stocks, which had been strong performers in local currencies, have continued their strong performance while European bond yields have declined even further.

2015-03-19 00:00:00 Cabela’s: Little Room for Error by Jenny Hubbard of Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc.

Through our research process, we attempt to identify actionable investment ideas, but we often conclude that a company does not present an immediate long or short investment opportunity. A decision not to invest in a company is valued just as much as a decision to invest in one, but we are always expected to stay current on our area of coverage in case conditions change.

2015-03-18 00:00:00 Alpha Matters More in Muted Equity Markets by Chris Marx of AllianceBernstein

In a Wall Street Journal article last week, financial advisors described how exuberant investors had unrealistic expectations for stock market returns after a six-year rally. We think a more pragmatic approach should aim to beat a slower-paced market in an effort to capture compounding returns.

2015-03-18 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: March by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group® of Franklin Templeton Investments

IN THIS ISSUE: United States Prepares for Interest-Rate Hikes; But Much of the World Is Still in Monetary Easing Mode; European Outlook

2015-03-14 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

China Moves Cautiously Toward a New Normal; Deleveraging Is Unfinished in the Industrialized World; Will Lower Borrowing Costs in Europe Be a Boon for U.S Firms?

2015-03-14 00:00:00 The Airline Industry Ascended to New Records in 2014 by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Just as the U.S. economy is in full-recovery mode, so too is the airline industry. It’s lately made an impressive about-face from only a decade ago and, in 2014, soared to several new benchmarks. This industry is flying high again.

2015-03-14 00:00:00 Will Dipping Data Lead To Dramatic Drop? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

US stocks have been resilient, although there has been an uptick in volatility. Economic data has shown some softening, but we believe it is temporary in nature. However, the risk of a correction is elevated in our view and investors should be prepared for such a possibility by having a diversified portfolio and keeping a close eye on rebalancing opportunities after pullbacks. Meanwhile, investors should also look overseas for global diversification opportunities as monetary policy easing should help to bolster asset values.

2015-03-11 00:00:00 The Expansion Settles, but Its Foundation Is Strong by Team of Northern Trust

Growth in the U.S. economy tapered a bit in the fourth quarter, but the outlook ahead remains very positive. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.2% in the fourth quarter after a 5.0% increase in the third quarter, but some special factors were at play that should ease as the first quarter of 2015 winds down.

2015-03-10 00:00:00 President Obama's 2016 Federal Budget Proposal by Tim Steffen (Article)

Both parties are focused on passing some type of tax reform this year, and in order to do that Republicans will likely have to concede on at least some of the president's wishes. Which of those may survive remains to be seen, but it's now up to the Republicans in Congress to respond with a proposal of their own.

2015-03-10 00:00:00 Happy Birthday Bull Market by Burt White of LPL Financial

The current bull market celebrates its sixth birthday today (March 9, 2015). Bull markets do not die of old age, they die of excesses, and we do not see evidence of excesses emerging today. Some of our favorite leading indicators suggest the economic expansion and bull market may continue through the end of 2015.

2015-03-07 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Quantitative easing comes to the eurozone; U.S. job growth is strong, but wage growth is not; The California port strike has troubled trade... and economists

2015-03-06 00:00:00 Market Fragility and Opportunity by Jim Tillar, Steve Wenstrup of Tillar-Wenstrup Advisors

Investing is a funny business. It is usually wise to invest the opposite of how the market feels to you. Six years ago stocks had fallen by 50%, the financial institutions that underlie our global economy were buckling, and the economy was in shambles. Investors were running from the stock market in droves. But because prices and expectations were low and because all the major central banks flooded the world with liquidity it was actually a great time to invest.

2015-03-06 00:00:00 Opportunities in Global Financial Disintermediation by Dave Gallagher of Calamos Investments

Increasing financial disintermediation is a strong secular theme providing tailwinds in several financial industries, but a likely arduous and complicated process warrants the need for a disciplined focus on both risk and reward. The financial system essentially performs one basic function—the direct or indirect movement of funds from savers to borrowers or investors. Although financial disintermediation is formally defined as the shifting of funds from indirect to direct financing, the term is more commonly used to describe the increasing role of non-bank intermediaries.

2015-03-06 00:00:00 The Great Monetary Expansion by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

While winter weather will likely distort first-quarter economic data, accommodative monetary policy around the world means the long-term outlook remains positive.

2015-03-05 00:00:00 Positioning U.S. Community Bank Investment Portfolios for 2015 by Chitrang Purani, Thomas Luciano of PIMCO

When market uncertainty is elevated and bank profitability is an ongoing concern, taking an extreme view toward investing cash or harvesting liquidity is not optimal. Currently, we do not see as much value in interest rate or duration risk for bank portfolios as yields imply a moderate path for future policy rates. We believe there are opportunities for banks to earn income without taking excess interest rate risk or limiting flexibility against the need to fund future opportunities.

2015-03-04 00:00:00 The Misery Index by John Canally of LPL Financial

Reports on the CPI and unemployment rate for January 2015 sent the Misery Index down to 5.6%, its lowest level in 56 years. Despite the low reading of the index, headlines and polls indicate the index may not be capturing the nation’s mood. Wage growth may be the key to improving consumer sentiment about the state of the U.S. economy.

2015-03-04 00:00:00 Tigers in Africa by Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners

This month's Absolute Return Letter is about unrealistic expectations which is something we are all guilty of from time to time. We look at why it is unrealistic to expect equity returns to be in the double digit range over the next several years, why central banks are not printing money like many believe, plus a few other topics.

2015-03-03 00:00:00 Buffett on the Value of Patient Optimism by William Smead of Smead Capital Management

Like picking up the Good Book, a read of Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Shareholder Letter yields insight, wisdom, and encouragement for the long-duration common stock investor in a world of short-term thinking and 30-second sound bites.

2015-03-02 00:00:00 States Feel Impact of Oil Price Collapse by Joseph Rosenblum of AllianceBernstein

Crude oil prices have fallen sharply since last summer, a bright spot for American consumers. Major oil-producing states aren’t as happy, because the loss in tax revenue is impacting budgets and economies. Some states will face real hardship; others will emerge relatively unscathed.

2015-03-02 00:00:00 On My Radar: Equity Valuations, Recessions and Market Declines by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group

Today let’s take a look at the hard evidence signaling slowdown. My personal view is that slowdown would not be as much of a problem if valuation measures were low. They’re not: by just about every measure the market is overpriced, overbought and over believed. What can you do? I share a simple and disciplined rules based way for you to stay invested in the market’s primary trend.

2015-03-02 00:00:00 Royce Premier Fund: Reviewing 2014 and Positioning for 2015 by (Article)

Portfolio Manager Lauren Romeo talks about the relative performance challenges for Royce Premier Fund and the types of businesses we are emphasizing and avoiding.

2015-03-01 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Economic News Alter Fed Policy? by Jeff Miller of New Arc Investments

The exact timing of the first Fed rate increase does not matter. There is a difference between tight monetary policy and slightly less accommodative policy. Markets do quite well in the early stages of rising rates, especially when starting from a low initial point. This will be ignored by many who will invoke “Don’t fight the Fed.” This will be the fundamental battleground between traders and investors, bears and bulls, and various political types – perhaps lasting for years. The end of the business or stock market cycle is not imminent. Bull markets do not die of old age.

2015-02-27 00:00:00 Are Expectations Too High? by Burt White of LPL Financial

The market’s continued ascent has caused some to ask if the stock market reflects excessive optimism. The pace of economic surprises as measured by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index suggests expectations remain reasonable. We view recent economic disappointments as largely temporary, and would expect the surprise index may reverse recent declines as expectations have come down, providing support for cyclical sectors.

2015-02-27 00:00:00 Could Apple Buy a Third of the World’s Gold? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

So what’s Apple’s next trick? How about moving the world’s gold market?

2015-02-27 00:00:00 Focusing on the Three Ds by Byron Wien of Blackstone

Looking forward several years, there will be three important factors that will determine the economic and investment outlook. They are decoupling, deflation and demand.

2015-02-27 00:00:00 On the Long Bond and Why the Widow Maker is Alive and Well by Team of GaveKal

Perhaps one of the most important questions investors need to answer today is whether we've seen the low in the long bonds yields or whether the trend lower is firmly intact. The recent spike in the 10-year bond yields from 1.65% at the end of January to 2.14% just two weeks later has no doubt complicated the situation. In this piece we'll try to layout one case for lower yields still.

2015-02-27 00:00:00 Rhyming…but not Repeating. by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

Stocks have recovered their January losses and have continued to move higher. While economic growth remains solid and we remain secular bulls, investors should be prepared for increased volatility and the potential for a near-term correction. Also, European stocks may be due for at least a pause and we suggest looking to add exposure to emerging market positions if needed. Staying well diversified and keeping an eye on rebalancing is the recommended strategy.

2015-02-26 00:00:00 Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

When I initiated the dshort web page in late 2005, one of my routine topics was equity valuations, initially inspired by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance, the second edition of which was published earlier that year. I gradually expanded my focus from his cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) to include Ed Easterling's Crestmont P/E, Nobel laureate James Tobin's Q Ratio and my own monthly regression analysis of the S&P 500.

2015-02-26 00:00:00 Family-Owned Businesses: One More Reason Not to Neglect Emerging Markets by David Ruff of Forward Investing

At the end of a year in which the U.S. handily led the world’s equity markets, many dividend investors find it hard to rouse any interest in emerging markets at all. “Why even bother?” seems to be the prevailing sentiment.

2015-02-26 00:00:00 Monetary Policy Matters by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

This year we expect the divergence in monetary policy among the world’s central banks to be a key theme and a likely driver of asset flows. For now, the scorecard seems to be tilted toward monetary easing since in the first month of 2015 alone, 14 central banks engaged in some form of monetary policy loosening, generally in the form of interest rate cuts or asset purchases.

2015-02-26 00:00:00 Rate Hike Rally by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The lead-up to the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve is historically a favorable environment for U.S. equities and credit.

2015-02-25 00:00:00 At a Standstill? - The Debate Over "Secular Stagnation" by Team of Northern Trust

During one particularly stormy day recently, I asked my daughter to unearth herself from the couch and help me clear the snow from the driveway. Unfortunately, the prospective reward of industry was no competition for the television remote, and I was left to fend for myself.

2015-02-25 00:00:00 The Strange World of Negative Interest Rates by Lowell Yura of BMO Global Asset Management

This article examines explanations for negative bond yields. The article argues that central bank policies may be one of the causes. The article also suggests that to make sense of low Treasury yields, investors should be mindful of global yield correlations.

2015-02-24 00:00:00 U.S. Economy: Will Growth Be Roaring, or Boring? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Here’s a look at key indicators—and what they signal for the pace of U.S. economic activity.

2015-02-24 00:00:00 Debt Be Not Proud by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

Some things never change. Here is Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founding intellectuals of the Austrian school of economics, writing in January 1914, lambasting politicians for their complicity in the corruption of monetary policy.

2015-02-22 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

The dramatic retreat in the price of oil and other commodities has muddied the waters for those trying to assess inflation. The world’s central banks, most of which are charged with meeting an inflation target, are among those struggling to gain adequate visibility.

2015-02-21 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: January 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equity prices outperformed in January on expectations that economic conditions in large Asian countries such as China and India could brighten this year. Fourth quarter GDP growth in China met expectations, helped by higher industrial production and consumer spending.

2015-02-20 00:00:00 Forward Estimates, Valuations vs. Returns, Told You So by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

I got into a debate recently with a gentleman who was adamant that current valuation levels in the market did not suggest trouble ahead. The problem is that his valuation argument was based on the use of forward operating earnings estimates. Let me explain why this is a faulty assumption.

2015-02-20 00:00:00 The Glass Ceiling on Rates by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

With the debt-to-GDP ratio at historic highs, the Fed doesn’t have much room to maneuver on the federal funds rate.

2015-02-19 00:00:00 Hub Group: A Long-Term Investment Thesis by Jason Downey of Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc.

In September 2013, we outlined our favorable view of the domestic intermodal transportation industry driven by cost advantages, continued market share growth opportunities, and improving pricing power. At that time, we viewed Hub Group, Inc. (HUB) and Pacer International, Inc. as the most attractive investment opportunities within the industry. During the last seventeen months there have been material developments in each of these areas, some positive and some negative.

2015-02-19 00:00:00 Energy Sector Outlook: What We Are Watching by Burt White of LPL Financial

No sector is getting more attention right now than energy. Market participants are attracted to the potential upside after both oil and the energy sector suffered substantial declines in recent months. Many see the sector as cheap, something that is not easy to find these days in the U.S. equity market. We drive by gas stations every day where we see prices have been cut in half, serving as a constant reminder of how cheap oil is. In this commentary, we discuss what we are watching to assess the opportunity in energy.

2015-02-19 00:00:00 2015 Annual Forecast by Clyde Kendzierski of Financial Solutions Group

It’s already February, but for many readers this is the first communication of 2015 so, Happy New Year! It’s been a great 6 weeks so far and we’re looking forward to many more to come. Let’s get into it…

2015-02-19 00:00:00 Great Expectations for Small-Cap Active Management by Chuck Royce, Chris Clark, and Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds

Widening credit spreads, increasing volatility, and decreasing stock correlation should allow stock pickers the chance to emerge as performance leaders. We continue to see good times ahead for active managers who focus on business fundamentals.

2015-02-19 00:00:00 February 2015 Economic Update by John Richards of Bronfman E.L. Rothschild

Consumers in the U.S. are showing their optimism by pushing a key consumer sentiment indicator to its highest level in over a decade. Despite a drop-off in Q4 GDP to a 2.6% annualized growth rate and three consecutive months of slowing manufacturing expansion, the U.S. economy still seems to be on strong footing.

2015-02-19 00:00:00 Brighter Days Ahead for the Global Economy? by Team of Thomas White International

After seven years of uneven growth trends following the 2008 financial crisis, we believe the global economy is likely to see a moderate acceleration in 2015. While several risks remain, we are reasonably confident that there are now enough growth drivers in place to help most major economies advance.

2015-02-18 00:00:00 On My Radar: Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group

This week let’s take a look at debt around the globe. I share a great piece from McKinsey & Company that shows just how much more debt, county by country, has been piled on since the 2007 debt induced financial crisis. Evidence is apparent in the commodity market and I also share a few ideas how you may risk manage those allocations.

2015-02-17 00:00:00 Gary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds by Robert Huebscher (Article)

If you followed Gary Shilling's advice for the last 30 years, you would be very wealthy. Since 1981, Shilling has consistently advocated owning long-dated Treasury securities. In a talk last week, he reiterated that advice as one piece of his three-part asset-allocation strategy for the coming year.

2015-02-17 00:00:00 Robo-Advisors Are Not New But They Foretell the Future of Financial Advice by Joe Tomlinson (Article)

So-called robo-advisors have been heralded as the next generation of technology that will transform the financial advice industry. Underneath the considerable debate that has emerged over their potential impact, an obvious fact has been overlooked: Much of what they offer is distinctively "old school."

2015-02-17 00:00:00 What Does the Current Low Interest Rate Environment Mean for Agency MBS? by Mike Cudzil, Daniel Hyman of PIMCO

After the agency MBS market in 2014 was dominated by low volatility, limited prepayment risk and strong performance, the strong rally in U.S. Treasuries in January resulted in just the opposite. With the Fed ending net purchases of MBS in October 2014, it seems unlikely for the private investment community to take the Fed’s place in the MBS market at this level of interest rates and spreads. PIMCO expects the environment for MBS in 2015 to be quite the opposite of 2014, resulting in higher volatility, cheaper valuations and more attractive excess return opportunities for the active manager.

2015-02-15 00:00:00 Self-Sustaining US Economy…So What Now? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

The US economy appears to be in a self-sustaining phase of the expansion, which could mean more volatility as the Fed embarks on a tightening cycle. We remain confident the secular bull market is intact, but volatility has risen and we suggest investors who are over-exposed to US equities consider global diversification, with a preference for emerging markets. Europe appears to be stealthily improving, but Greece remains a flash point and Eurozone equity markets may have gotten ahead of themselves a bit.

2015-02-13 00:00:00 Global Airline Stocks Soaring, and Not Just Because of Low Oil Prices by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The airline industry is notoriously competitive. There’s even an old joke: If you want to make a million dollars in the airline business, you need to start with two million.

2015-02-12 00:00:00 Scott Mather Discusses PIMCO’s Total Return Strategy by Scott Mather of PIMCO

Bonds have continued to rally so far this year, even as the Federal Reserve contemplates raising interest rates. In the following interview, Scott Mather, CIO U.S. Core Strategies, discusses recent developments in the bond markets, the outlook for the year ahead and the investment implications for PIMCO’s Total Return Strategy. Mather co-manages the strategy with Mark Kiesel, CIO Global Credit, and Mihir Worah, CIO Real Return and Asset Allocation.

2015-02-11 00:00:00 China Just Crossed a Landmark Threshold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Back in July 2013, the think tank Heritage Foundation predicted that China’s outbound investment “could very well exceed $80 billion [by the end of the year] and is on course to breach $100 billion by about 2016.”

2015-02-10 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for “Risk On?” by Jeff Miller of New Arc Investments

With a modest schedule of data releases, we can expect more analysis of last week’s news. Trading in several markets changed course rather abruptly. With traders poised to spot any change in trend, the question will be whether this shift is for real.

2015-02-09 00:00:00 Bonds or Jeter? by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors

In baseball, batters choose to either swing for the fences in hopes of a home run or go for more consistent base hits. These same principles are highly relevant to the current market environment and long-term investment success. So, see if you really want home run hitters in your portfolio?

2015-02-09 00:00:00 The International Ramifications of ECB QE by Andrew Bosomworth of PIMCO

By engaging in quantitative easing, the European Central Bank is pursuing its inflation mandate with a vengeance. Overall, we think the combination of quantitative easing, investment and lower oil prices will help eurozone growth reach approximately 1.3% in 2015. Global central bank balance sheets continue to expand: Although the Federal Reserve stopped purchasing assets in 2014, the Bank of Japan and now the ECB have stepped up buying bonds where the Fed left off.

2015-02-07 00:00:00 The Power of Lower Oil Prices by Byron Wien of Blackstone

The Ten Surprises of 2015 have two prevailing themes. The more dominant is that the decline in the price of oil is generally a positive for the world. It puts money in the pockets of consumers everywhere and it is likely to force Iran and Russia to be more conciliatory in geopolitical negotiations because both countries are suffering not only from the drop in the oil price, but also from the sanctions imposed on them. The second theme is that in spite of notable economic problems in Europe, China and Japan, the United States equity market will have another good year.

2015-02-06 00:00:00 Global Opportunities: The Next Leap Forward for Defined Contribution Investment Menus by Charles Roth of Thornburg Investment Management

Under ERISA, fiduciaries are obligated to ensure plan menus provide diverse investment options to help minimize the risk of long-term losses in account values. Global, non-traditional equity and fixed income options are sorely lacking in Defined Contribution (DC) plan menus. These op-tions can offer both lower correlation to U.S. markets and potentially strong returns, which par-ticipants increasingly need given the uncertainty surrounding Social Security’s future benefit levels.

2015-02-05 00:00:00 Macro View: Good Company, Bad Stock by Team of Guggenheim Partners

The U.S. economy is strong relative to other countries, but its equity valuations mean less upside potential for long-term investors than other areas of the world.

2015-02-05 00:00:00 Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Approaching the Later Innings of a Recovery by Bryan Tsu of PIMCO

With the U.S. recovery as a supportive backdrop, PIMCO expects commercial real estate prices to rise 4%-6% in 2015. Commercial mortgage-backed securities issuance has increased for five years, and projections for 2015 are for growth of 20%-30%, driven largely by an increase in maturing loans on the supply side and the continued search for yield on the demand side. The growth in issuance does not come without concern: CMBS underwriting standards will likely continue to slip.

2015-02-03 00:00:00 Americas Economy Trends Update January 2015 by Team of Thomas White International

Thomas White International seeks superior performance by identifying undervalued securities in the U.S. and nearly 45 markets worldwide. Its flagship product is the Thomas White International Fund (TWWDX).

2015-02-03 00:00:00 Diving Into the ISM: What's It All Mean? by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital

This morning the Institute for Supply Management released its much followed Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

2015-02-03 00:00:00 Municipal Market Perspectives by Team of SMC Fixed Income Management

Pick your poison: weaker oil and copper prices; increasing gold demand; Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar devaluations; another possible Greek tragedy; launch of European Central Bank (“ECB”) bond buying program; waning emerging markets; weakening U.S. stock prices; global deflation worries. It appears to us that the broadening global weakness could be beginning to negatively impact the U.S. expansion. Given the current state of global events, we see no reason for the Fed to prematurely move ahead with its rate normalization plan as many anticipate occurring by mid-year 2015.

2015-02-02 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the data deluge signal economic weakness? by Jeff Miller of New Arc Investments

This is a landslide week for economic data, and earnings season is in full swing. Last week’s Q4 GDP report and overall market tone has revived deflation concerns. I expect market participants to be watching each economic release closely, asking: Are there signs of incipient economic weakness?

2015-01-30 00:00:00 PIMCO Extends Its Dividend Suite With Two New Regional Strategies by Brad Kinkelaar, Adam Muller of PIMCO

As is the case with our other dividend strategies, we are unconstrained by benchmarks and focused on generating yield and capital appreciation by finding attractively valued companies that pay appealing dividends today and have an ability and willingness to grow dividends over time.

2015-01-30 00:00:00 Opportunities and Risks for Investors After the Oil Price Slump? by Daniel Lacalle of PIMCO

What we are seeing now is that oil prices, when OPEC refuses to balance the market, test the marginal cost of production, and costs fall. Some of the costs of the largest components of oil projects – high-spec sixth-generation rigs, pressure pumping, seismic, completion – have fallen between 20% and 45% in the space of months as overcapacity became evident and capital expenditure was revised downward.

2015-01-29 00:00:00 The Strange Case of the Current Small-Cap Cycle by Team of The Royce Funds

For much of the past five years, small-cap stocks have generated returns well above their monthly rolling five-year averages. In addition, lower-than-usual volatility within the asset class and a decline in the cost of capital spurred by the Fed?s monetary stimulus programs have created an unfriendly environment for active stock pickers such as ourselves. Our latest research, however, suggests that some of these conditions were abating late in 2014, which might benefit those investors who focus on fundamentals and try to use volatility to create longer-term opportunities.

2015-01-29 00:00:00 Fed in Wait-and-See Mode by Team of Northern Trust

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its meeting on an optimistic note. There were no dissents, following three at the December 2014 meeting.

2015-01-29 00:00:00 Advice for Investing in Today's Volatile Markets: 5 Points by John Calamos of Calamos Investments

In my view: (1) Volatility will likely continue at an elevated level. Falling commodity prices, global growth fears and political uncertainties in the euro zone are among the factors that will add to volatility in the markets over these next months. (2) The U.S. stock market can continue to advance for 2015. (3) Investors need to look through the short-term volatility and position their portfolios proactively and strategically. (4) Diversification is important?but bonds aren?t necessarily the right answer.

2015-01-29 00:00:00 3 Things - Fed Mistake, ECB QE, Housing by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve made their latest monetary policy announcement. Janet Yellen, the current Chairwoman, made several statements that led the markets to believe that they remain on course for increasing the overnight lending rate this year.

2015-01-28 00:00:00 European Central Bank Embraces QE, For Better Or Worse by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

Last Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced the much-anticipated launch of a sovereign bond buying program at the rate of ?60 billion ($70 billion) per month known as ?quantitative easing.? The amount of the monthly purchases was slightly higher than had been expected.

2015-01-28 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: January by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab, John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments

After a much better-than-expected annualized growth rate of 5% in the third quarter of 2014, the stars would seem to be fairly much aligned for continued US growth in the months ahead. Job growth has continued apace, interest rates and energy prices have remained low, and consumer and business confidence has been buoyant. As we start the new year, the main areas of uncertainty would seem to be the pace of growth and the implications of recent price and employment trends for the timing of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

2015-01-28 00:00:00 The Road Back, and Ahead by Scott Brown of Raymond James

The U.S. economy data are likely to be mixed in the near term, but there is little doubt that we are gathering steam. The plunge in gasoline prices is an enormous tailwind. However, this isn?t just an energy story. The fundamentals are getting better.

2015-01-27 00:00:00 What Happened to the Secular Bear Market in Equities? by Martin Pring of Pring Turner Capital Group

History shows that US equity prices have consistently alternated between secular bull and bear trends. These price movements typically average 15-20 years in length and embrace several different business cycles. In April 2003 we published an article posing the question, ?Whither the Secular Trend of Equities?? which laid out the case for the year 2000 being a secular or very long-term peak for the US stock market. Since the three previous secular bears averaged just over 18-years, our working hypothesis was for a weak market until sometime around 2018.

2015-01-26 00:00:00 Is Q-ECB a Favorable Development? by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

It?s not entirely clear what will happen in the near term, but the financial markets are already pushed to extremes by central-bank induced speculation.

2015-01-26 00:00:00 The Consumption of Davos by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Europe?s central bank took bold action this week, consuming the conversation at the World Economic Forum?s Annual Meeting, but will it be enough?

2015-01-25 00:00:00 There?s More to the Gold Rally than European Market Fears by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Even though gold was down last year, it still ranked as the second-best-performing currency, following the U.S. dollar. The metal has risen about 10 percent year-to-date, and on Tuesday, for the first time since mid-August, it broke through the $1,300 mark.

2015-01-23 00:00:00 Despite Hitting an Oil Slick, Evidence Underpins a Positive Outlook on MLPs by David Chiaro of Eagle Global Advisors

The fall in energy prices has raised concerns that the dramatic hydrocarbon volume growth we have seen from the new shale plays in the U.S. in the past few years is over or might even reverse. We believe these concerns are overblown. We think the current dislocation in the commodity markets is a case of supply temporarily getting ahead of demand.

2015-01-23 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

Commodity price declines were the symptom of sharply deteriorating economic conditions prior to the 1920-21 depression. To be sure, today?s economic environment is different. The world economies are not emerging from a destructive war, nor are we on the gold standard, and U.S. employment is no longer centered in agriculture and factories (over 50% in the U.S. in 1920). The fact remains, however, that global commodity prices are in noticeable retreat.

2015-01-22 00:00:00 Deflation Is A Problem For The Fed by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

The biggest worry of the Federal Reserve, and frankly every Central Banker on the planet, is deflation. The reason is that deflation, as an economic pressure, is dangerous and once entrenched becomes difficult to break. For the Fed, the fear of inflation is far less worrisome.

2015-01-21 00:00:00 Saudi Succession by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia was recently hospitalized with pneumonia. In light of his advanced age and declining health, an analysis of royal succession in Saudi Arabia is in order. We will begin with a history of Saudi kings and follow with an examination of the current Saudi succession, focusing on the Crown Prince and who remains as potential kings among the ?second generation? of the Saudi Royal Family. We will analyze the challenges facing the kingdom and how the succession issue will likely complicate the way these issues are resolved, and conclude with potential market ram

2015-01-20 00:00:00 Navigating the Oil Slick by Team of Calamos Investments

GDP growth for 2015 is likely to be 2.0%-2.5% globally and 2.5%-3.0% in the U.S. Oil prices may fall further but are likely to stabilize over the next several months. The ECB is likely to ramp up QE in the first quarter. These next months are likely to be volatile, but equities have more room to run. Low corporate borrowing costs and high dividend yields should encourage continued M&A and buyback activity, providing support to equity valuations. With the U.S. in the middle innings of the recovery, the case for secular and cyclical growth companies remains strong.

2015-01-17 00:00:00 Palladium Was the Winner in 2014 by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Palladium, 2014?s top commodity, performed relatively according to script. For the year it was up 11.35 percent, compared to its 10-year annualized returns of 14 percent. Much like nickel, palladium was spurred by extenuating circumstances. Between January and June, a labor strike in South Africa, the world?s second-largest producer of the metal following Russia, halted production, which depleted reserves and sent palladium to a three-year high of $850 an ounce.

2015-01-16 00:00:00 QQE2: Japan?s Monetary Banzai Charge by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital

In this Age of Monetary Policy, it is impossible to ignore the macro. As much as we would like to focus only on individual enterprises, the mind-boggling scale of $5 trillion of monetary intervention in the U.S., Japan, and Europe renders such cloistered thinking imprudent. Not only must Benjamin Graham?s enterprising investor understand individual stocks, but they must also be keenly cognizant of the role the world?s largest central banks actively play in the value of currencies, bonds, stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and derivatives of all kinds.

2015-01-16 00:00:00 Yesterday?s Gone: Year-End Capital Markets Commentary and Expectations by Chris Brightman, Jim Masturzo of Research Affiliates

With updated return expectations, we estimate that the performance of U.S. stocks and bonds over the next 10 years will be significantly lower than long-term historical averages. Other asset classes may produce moderately better returns.

2015-01-16 00:00:00 2015 Economic & Capital Market Outlook by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

The domestic economy is growing at 3.0% to 3.5% pace. The budget deficit is plummeting and currently is less than 2.8% of GDP. The price of oil is in a freefall now below $55 per barrel and inflation is virtually nonexistent. The rate of unemployment is below 6.0%. These are idyllic conditions for any economy, especially five years after the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression. So, what?s the problem?

2015-01-13 00:00:00 2015 - Fasten Your Seat Belts, This Could Be a Bumpy Ride by Chris Puplava of PFS Group

While higher stock prices are often cited as the biggest beneficiary of the Fed?s several rounds of quantitative easing (QE), a lesser cited beneficiary has been overall market volatility and the credit markets. With each round of QE and/or ?Operation Twist? we?ve seen measures of financial stress in the credit markets contract.

2015-01-13 00:00:00 Market Outlook 2015: Double Digit Gain...Thank You, May I Have Another? by K. Sean Clark of Clark Capital Management Group

The U.S. stock market finds itself in rare territory as we enter 2015. For only the sixth time in the past 150 years, the U.S. stock market has registered a double-digit gain for three consecutive calendar years from 2012 to 2014. We will try to answer the question: ?Can the U.S. stock market post a fourth year of double-digit gains??

2015-01-13 00:00:00 High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook by Team of Guggenheim Partners

Investment-grade and high-yield spreads widen as energy plunges.

2015-01-12 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview: November 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Lower energy prices continued to brighten the global economic growth outlook, though some of the recent data trends have been less cheerful. Crude oil prices have slipped to their lowest level since 2010, and the steep fall has the potential to significantly alter global growth patterns next year.

2015-01-12 00:00:00 A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast: Tsunami Warning by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is as much a guessing game as anything else (and I am bad at guessing games), I?m going to do a five-year forecast to take us to the end of the decade, which I think may be useful for longer-term investors.

2015-01-10 00:00:00 Bad News Is Good News: A Contrarian View of China Investing by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

I asked Xian Liang, portfolio manager of our China Region Fund (USCOX), to outline a few of the most compelling cases to remain bullish on the Asian giant.

2015-01-09 00:00:00 A Tale of Two Earnings Seasons by Burt White of LPL Financial

The fourth quarter of 2014 will be a tale of two earnings seasons: the best of times and the worst of times. Despite a substantial drag from the energy sector, we expect another good earnings season overall. We expect more winners from cheap oil than losers, although the energy sector faces significant challenges.

2015-01-09 00:00:00 Grease and Greece by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors

With the energy sector and Eurozone concerns dominating the financial industry?s outlook on 2015, see what RBA believes to be the real issues facing both Greece and Grease.

2015-01-08 00:00:00 Global Economic Outlook by Team of Northern Trust

Re-entry to the workplace after the holiday season isn't exactly like a satellite descending from earth's orbit.

2015-01-08 00:00:00 Levitate: More Market Mood Swings in 2015? by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Secular bull market is likely intact, but 2015 could bring more volatility associated with Fed policy and/or global events. Longer-term sentiment suggests the ?wall of worry? is intact; but shorter-term sentiment is more troubling. Falling oil and rising dollar have generated loads of questions from clients ? history tells a generally positive story.

2015-01-07 00:00:00 A Quick Look at the World Economy by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

An assessment of where the different world economies stand, including a look at the United States, Europe and Asia.

2015-01-06 00:00:00 Volatility May Bring Opportunity and Challenges by Burt White of LPL Financial

As the economic and market cycles progress, increased volatility[1] should be expected; however, none of our Five Forecasters show elevated reason for concern, indicating a recession is unlikely in 2015.

2015-01-06 00:00:00 Ides by William Gross of Janus Capital Group

Beware the Ides of March, or the Ides of any month in 2015 for that matter. When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes. The good times are over.

2015-01-05 00:00:00 Regression to the Mean by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs

I often hear from many of you that you know very little about investing. However, I find that most of you understand investing quite well. Many of the concepts and theories thrown out by those of us who claim to be professionals can be restated into words and phrases you use regularly. For instance, when you say, what goes up must come down, or, when you are going through a particularly tough time, dont worry, things will get better, you are showing your knowledge of regression to the mean.

2015-01-04 00:00:00 Why the World Needs the US Economy to Struggle by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

In this weeks letter, my associate Worth Wray explores what a rising dollar means for emerging markets and what central banks are likely to do in response. Can they smooth the ride, or will it be the worlds scariest roller coaster? This letter will print long because of the number of fabulous charts Worth provides. I might make a brief comment or two at the end. Heres Worth.

2015-01-02 00:00:00 2015 Investment Outlook: EuropeThe Saga Continues by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments

David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, gives his perspective on what he thinks may lie ahead as the eurozones drama continues into 2015.

2015-01-02 00:00:00 Global Economic Outlook: US Sets the Pace for Growth in 2015 by John Greenwood of Invesco Blog

As we begin the new year, there are certain key issues that I expect to dominate the macroeconomic conversation and to impact markets around the world. Here, I highlight a few of those issues.

2014-12-31 00:00:00 2015 Investment Outlook: EuropeThe Saga Continues by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments

Like television fans deciphering a season-finale cliffhanger, investors have been left with unanswered questions about the eurozone as 2014 draws to a close. Will the European Central Bank unleash full quantitative easing? Will the eurozone fall into a recession? David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, gives his perspective on what he thinks may lie ahead as the eurozones drama continues into 2015.

2014-12-31 00:00:00 2015 Global Market Outlook: Exploring the Growth Landscape by Simon Fennell, Olga Bitel of William Blair

For much of 2014, the financial press was filled with dire headlines warning of global stagnation and deflation. These demoralizing reports seemed to paralyze policy makers. The facts behind the headlines, however, suggested the reality was not nearly as gloomy or pessimistic as it seemed. This paper outlines a more optimistic outlook for 2015 where the world economy is expected to remain resilient and where the outlook for sustainable corporate returns remains strong.

2014-12-30 00:00:00 U.S. Consumers: Spend More? Bah, Humbug by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Despite an improving labor market and lower oil prices, consumer outlays should continue to expand at a slow pace. Heres why.

2014-12-27 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: December by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab & John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments

With 321,000 jobs added, the initial US nonfarm payroll report for November was much stronger than markets expected and brought job growth this year close to levels last seen in the late 1990s. Added to upward revisions in September and October jobs data, the nonfarm payrolls data reinforces the view that whatever is occurring in the rest of the world, the US economy appears to remain firmly on track to record reasonably strong growth in the months ahead. And while fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth this quarter for the United States is expected to be lower than the third-quart

2014-12-24 00:00:00 Government Spent $29,000 Per US Household in 2014 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

A new study from The Heritage Foundation found that out-of-control spending in Washington amounted to more than $29,000 per household in fiscal year 2014. Today, I will reprint the highlights of that excellent report. As you will see below, government spending has topped $3.5 trillion in each of the six years that President Obama has been in office.

2014-12-24 00:00:00 2015 Outlook: Watching Our Overweights by Team of Northern Trust

Asset class returns were much more differentiated this year than last, with yield-oriented assets and U.S. equities being the standout performers. We entered 2014 overweight risk tactically, but made several changes as the year progressed.

2014-12-23 00:00:00 Setting the Scene for 2015 by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Market prospects in the coming year would seem to hinge on four major considerations. One is geopolitics, inherently unpredictable but potentially disruptive, especially these days. Another is the Federal Reserves plan to raise interest rates along a gentle path beginning sometime in the middle of the year. Third is the perennial question of where value lies within and between markets. Fourth is the state of the U.S. economy.

2014-12-23 00:00:00 Growth Headwinds Continue to Blow Through Asia in 2015 by Adam Bowe, Tomoya Masanao, Robert Mead of PIMCO

This commentary discusses the conclusions from PIMCOs quarterly Cyclical Forum in December 2014 and how they influence our Asian outlook and investment strategy.

2014-12-20 00:00:00 The $330 Billion Global Tax Break by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

According to an article by Jon Markman titled The Saudi Stimulus, the global economy is looking to save hundreds of billions of dollars on an annual basis: "According to EIA data, consumption of crude oil during the latest 12 months was 6.9 billion barrels. So the price drop from $107/barrel at the June 2014 high to $59 today represents a total presumptive savings of $332 billion per year." In a time when China, the European Union and other major markets are trying to jumpstart their economies, a $330 billion tax break can only come as good news. It should help in stimu

2014-12-19 00:00:00 A Rising Tide Lifts Most Boats by Saumil Parikh, Daniel Ivascyn of PIMCO

PIMCO expects global growth to accelerate in 2015, reaching about +2.75% year-over-year, with the majority of this improvement due to the (predominantly supply-driven) decline in oil prices. However, there will be large differences in growth dynamics among countries. While fiscal and monetary policies in most developed countries will stimulate growth in 2015, the U.S. Federal Reserve will attempt to break from the pack.

2014-12-19 00:00:00 Testing the Limits of Monetary Policy Without Fiscal Union by Andrew Balls, Andrew Bosomworth, Lorenzo Pagani of PIMCO

Over the next 12 months, we expect eurozone growth to accelerate from the current annualised run rate of 0.5% to a still-very-weak pace of approximately 1%, while the ultra-low inflation tells us there is a demand problem. With the ECB set to expand its balance sheet over the cyclical horizon, the biggest risk to growth is if the ECB buys large quantities of government bonds but the governments do nothing. We expect to remain overweight European peripherals and overweight European corporate credit, with the focus on financials.

2014-12-18 00:00:00 2015 Investment Outlook: US Credit Cycle Tiptoes into Middle Age by Eric Takaha of Franklin Templeton Investments

Eric Takaha, SVP, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, discusses how far the US economy is in the credit cycle and the potential effects of rising rates.

2014-12-18 00:00:00 When is a Turnaround Not Really a Turnaround? by Austin Hawley of Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc.

Like all good students, we try to learn from the experience of experts, and amongst value investors there is no more esteemed expert than Warren Buffett. We have followed Buffett closely, sending dozens of employees to Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings and scouring past letters to shareholders in search of value investing knowledge. Thus, we pay heed when Buffett warns that the temptation to predict a turnaround is often misguided.

2014-12-18 00:00:00 A Tale of Two Markets by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

A solid run of domestic data has set the United States apart from a beleaguered world.

2014-12-16 00:00:00 U.S. Housing: Still Room to Grow? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Federal Reserve rate hikes or not, the fundamentals suggest the sectors slow, steady recovery likely will continue.

2014-12-16 00:00:00 An Interest Rate Hike? Check Out Long Bonds, US Dollar Index, Demographics And Money Multiplier. by Sebastiao Buck Tocalino of SBTCapital Clube de Investimento

Inflation is out of sight in terms of Treasury bond yields, dollar exchange rates and demographic outlook lets not even mention energy costs! Much of the FEDs monetary base expansion did not flow into consumption or, more importantly, entrepreneurial productive investments! Money multiplier is more like a fractional now, since not even credit increased the money available for Main Street the way it used to.

2014-12-13 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

The Fed prepares to take a "considerable" step. We could be in for another round of emerging market volatility.

2014-12-12 00:00:00 5 Things To Ponder: Crude Oppositeness by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

This past week I have been inundated with questions regarding the dive in crude oil prices and the energy sector in general. Is this a fantastic buying opportunity, or is the bigger of something bigger? The answer depends on your time frame.

2014-12-12 00:00:00 5 Things To Ponder: Crude Oppositeness by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

This past week I have been inundated with questions regarding the dive in crude oil prices and the energy sector in general. Is this a fantastic buying opportunity, or is the bigger of something bigger? The answer depends on your time frame.

2014-12-11 00:00:00 Three Winning Arguments for Japan by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

I travel to Japan every year, normally around early December. The more time I spend there, the more I come to realize what a uniquely distinct country it is. On my trip last week, one of my Japanese colleagues pointed out that Tokyo was starting to allow taller office buildings. I assumed the previous limitation was a function of Japans location in a geologically active part of the Pacific. My friend politely laughed. The injunction was due to the fact that no building was supposed to look down on the Imperial Palace.

2014-12-10 00:00:00 Lessons Learned in 2014 by Seth Masters of AllianceBernstein

In 2014, US stocks forged ahead, international developed and emerging-market stocks lagged, bonds did better than expected, and the IRS took a bigger bite. Here are some lessons for US investors to carry forward into 2015.

2014-12-09 00:00:00 2015 Fixed Income Outlook: Handle with Care by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial

With sustained improvement in economic growth, slowly rising inflation, and the approach of the Feds first interest rate hike, bond prices are likely to decline in 2015. High-yield bonds and bank loans can help investors manage this challenging bond market.

2014-12-08 00:00:00 Peaking Process by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

In my view, we are likely witnessing the peak of the third equity valuation bubble in the past 14 years, the first two which saw major indices plunge by at least 50%. Its important to recognize that market peaks are a process, not an event. Internal deterioration has actually been developing since early July, and became measurable in early August. This process has been quite like what we observed in 2007, when deterioration became measurable in July of that year. Despite an initial selloff, the major indices recovered to a marginal new high in October 2007 before continuing lower.

2014-12-08 00:00:00 Inflection Points by Guy Scott of Janus Capital Group

U.S. equities surged over the last six years as the economy regained its footing after the financial crisis, and companies underwent substantial cost cuts to improve profitability. Today, many international companies and regional economies are early in the process of making similar positive, transformative changes.

2014-12-05 00:00:00 The Dark Side to Falling Oil Prices by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The slump in oil prices could stifle global growth and force some oil-dependent economies into recession.

2014-12-05 00:00:00 Are Oil Prices Ready to Break out of the Trough? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

American business holds up the rest of the world.In ancient Greek mythology, the Titan Atlas was charged with holding up the world. Today, that task largely falls on the shoulders of American businesses.

2014-12-04 00:00:00 U.S. Economic Growth Picks Up by Team of LPL Financial

We believe the U.S. economy will continue its transition from the slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2011 - 2013 to more sustained, broad-based growth. We expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher in 2015, which matches the average growth rate over the past 50 years.

2014-12-02 00:00:00 The Tooth-Fairy Economics of Jeff Madrick by Laurence B. Siegel (Article)

Incentives don't matter, tradeoffs don't exist and there are no limits to what the government can give you. Those who believe this dogma are likely to still have faith in the tooth fairy. In Seven Bad Ideas, a critique of the neoclassical revival in economics that surrounded Milton Friedman and that affected policy and politics worldwide for more than a generation, Jeff Madrick emerges as tooth-fairy economics' chief exponent.

2014-12-02 00:00:00 Making Sense of Dollar Strength by Bradley Krom of WisdomTree

Over the last several months, investors and economists alike have started to take note of the broad-based appreciation of the U.S. dollar. However, we believe the magnitude of this years move tells only a portion of the story. In our view, this summers rally does not represent a correction or near-term adjustment, but rather the continuation of a broader trend that started in the middle of 2011.

2014-12-02 00:00:00 The Worlds Dumbest Idea by James Montier of GMO

In a new white paper today, James Montier of GMO's asset allocation team "explor(es) the evidence that shareholder value maximization (SVM) has been an unmitigated failure and contributed to some very undesirable economic outcomes."

2014-11-26 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: November by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab & John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments

Steady improvements in US employment and relatively good economic growth figures mean that debate over when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin to tighten policy continues to be the order of the day. US job growth increased at a fairly brisk pace in October, and numbers for the previous two months (already good) were revised higher. Since the start of 2014, US employers have added more than 220,000 workers on average each month, which should be sufficient to sustain economic momentum after an initial reading showed annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.5% in the third quarter

2014-11-25 00:00:00 Why Cant Investing Be as Simple as Going from Here to There? by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments

After traveling more than 20,000 miles over the last month, my mind is overflowing with strong impressions gained from my travels. The richness of the culture, the beauty of the lands, and the friendliness of the people in Australia and New Zealand cannot be overstated. As Americans, we tend to think of ourselves as the youngest kid on the block with a freshness and youthfulness that puts Europes stodginess to shame. Yet down under there is a land as big as the USA with a history half as long and economies just in the earliest stages of expansion.

2014-11-25 00:00:00 Real Estate is Having a Moment by Christopher Gannatti of WisdomTree

Looking at equity market, one theme this year is that the U.S. has been outperforming global markets, both developed international and emerging markets. However, looking within the U.S., real estate has performed particularly well.

2014-11-25 00:00:00 Reflections on the 25th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Part 2 by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Last week, we began our two-part series on the fall of the Berlin Wall with an examination of the end of Marxism. In this report, we will examine the rest of the important consequences from the fall of the Berlin Wall. These are: the Collapse of the U.S.S.R., the Onset of the U.S. Unipolar Moment, and the Impact of German Unification. We will conclude our comments with potential market ramifications.

2014-11-25 00:00:00 Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Despite continuing geopolitical tensions and subdued oil prices, the Middle East and Africa region had a largely positive third quarter. South Africa, the largest economy in this region, saw its labor problems diminish while Egypt reported a string of encouraging data, signaling that it is steadily recovering from a long phase of political and economic turbulence.

2014-11-25 00:00:00 Jeremy Siegel - Fair Value for the S&P 500 is 2,300 by Robert Huebscher (Article)

During the post-financial crisis period, no person has been more accurate at forecasting U.S. equity market returns than Jeremy Siegel, the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School. In this year's interview, he explains why the fair value of the S&P 500 is 11% higher than its valuation today.

2014-11-24 00:00:00 Japan Dips into Recession as Japan, Inc. Profits Set New Highs by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree

When investors buy Japanese equities, they dont really buy a slice of that economy; they buy shares in corporations that operate both in Japan and around the world. Japan, Inc. (i.e., Japanese corporations) is showing a profit picture that differs dramatically from the countrys economic growth rate.

2014-11-24 00:00:00 When 'Buy and Hold' Works, And When It Doesn't by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

Imagine if you had invested in the S&P 500 in 1984 and held through the tech bubble and crash and then through the financial crisis and its recovery. How would you have done over those 30 years? As it turns out, very well. On a real basis (meaning, inflation-adjusted), your holdings would have appreciated by over 400%. A $100,000 investment in 1984 would now be worth more than $500,000.

2014-11-24 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: October 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices saw large price swings during the month of October as fears about slower global growth led to an appreciable decline during the first two weeks. Equity prices recovered subsequently as better than expected U.S. economic data helped allay global growth fears.

2014-11-24 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview: October 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Regional growth trends diverged further during the month of October as data from the U.S. and China were positive, while activity in the Euro-zone remained subdued. The U.S. economy expanded faster than expected during the third quarter, helped by higher government spending.

2014-11-24 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: October 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equity prices turned volatile during October as concerns about weak global growth and the impending close of bond purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve unnerved investors. Still, some of the large emerging markets in Asia rebounded strongly during the second half of the month.

2014-11-24 00:00:00 You Thought QE Was Over? by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

A couple of weeks ago in the weekly newsletter I discussed the series of events behind the decline of the market in October and the subsequent surge.

2014-11-22 00:00:00 Solar Energy Powers Record Silver Demand by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Silver demand in the fabrication of solar panels is set to outpace photography, if it hasn?t already done so.

2014-11-21 00:00:00 The Implications of Easing by Mark Mobius, Michael Hasenstab of Franklin Templeton Investments

Just as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the conclusion of its long-running quantitative easing (QE) program, the Bank of Japan surprised markets by announcing the expansion of its own easing regime. Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group, and Michael Hasenstab, Chief Investment Officer, Global Bonds, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, weigh in on the implications of these central bank actions, as well as current European Central Bank (ECB) policy, and what they could mean for investors on both the equity and fixed income side.

2014-11-20 00:00:00 The Abenomics Death Spiral by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japans economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies. And although the warning sirens are blasting at the highest volumes imaginable, few economists can hear the alarm.

2014-11-20 00:00:00 Will $2.50 Gasoline Catalyze U.S. Consumer Stocks? by William Smead of Smead Capital Management

A great deal has been written about how lower gasoline prices could stimulate discretionary purchases in the United States. RBOB gasoline futures peaked on June 20, 2014 at $3.12 per gallon and closed on November the 14th at $2.04. Those in the bearish camp like Randall Forsyth at Barrons argue that lower oil and gas prices will negate and ruin the economic benefit of the oil boom.

2014-11-19 00:00:00 Crude Oil? by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Integrity, Websters dictionary defines it as, The quality of being honest and having strong moral principles. Recently the voters of America sent the D.C. crowd a message that they want integrity back in government. Consequently, I viewed the midterm election as a turning point. And, a turning point approaches on December 21st of this year. Thats when the Winter Solstice arrives.

2014-11-15 00:00:00 Explore and Discover the Winners When Gas Prices Fall by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil for December delivery is currently priced at $75 per barrel, Brent for January delivery at $78 per barrel. Many investors, publications and news sources focus only on the drawbacks to falling oil and gas prices-don't get me wrong, there are many-but today we're going to give the spotlight to the biggest winners and beneficiaries.

2014-11-15 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Falling oil prices produce gain... and pain; Brazil's post-election challenges; The Fed may seek to overshoot its inflation target

2014-11-14 00:00:00 Contemplating Stocks without QE by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

Some influences on the stock market are casual, subtle or open to interpretation, but the catalyst behind the current stock market rally really shouldn't be controversial. As far as stocks go, we have lived by QE. The only question now is, whether we will die without it.

2014-11-14 00:00:00 Mean-Reverting Profits and Other Things Worth Thinking About by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

Earlier this week I discussed the growing detachment between the stock market and the "real" underlying economy. One of the areas I touched on was corporate earnings that have been elevated by an immense amount of accounting gimmackry, cost cutting, and productivity increases. The problem, as I stated, is that historically earnings have grown 6% peak-to-peak before a reversion. Notice, I said peak-to-peak. The issue is that the majority of analysts now estimate that earnings will rise unabated for the next five years.

2014-11-11 00:00:00 Capital Raising in the MLP Sector Remains Active by David Chiaro of Eagle Global Advisors

We continue to see evidence that underpins our long term positive outlook on MLPs and midstream energy infrastructure companies. The need for new midstream infrastructure remains significant and announcements of large projects continue to be made. New export markets for U.S. hydrocarbons continue to develop and offer new profit opportunities for MLPs.

2014-11-11 00:00:00 The Return of the Dollar by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate

The recent dollar rally, the result of genuine economic progress and divergent policy developments, could contribute to the rebalancing that has long eluded the global economy. But that outcome is far from guaranteed.

2014-11-10 00:00:00 Eurozone 2015 Economic & Capital Market Outlook by Gregory Hahn, Marco Carvajal of Winthrop Capital Management

Five years after the financial crisis, the Eurozone is facing major challenges in restoring economic growth. The Eurozone is faced with numerous structural problems, high unemployment, excess capacity, stagnant wages, slow banking reform, declining manufacturing, low level of capital investment and the uncertainty of Russian foreign policy. The result is that member countries are struggling to comply with the original terms of the European Union and running budget deficits in order to stimulate growth within their countries.

2014-11-10 00:00:00 Change Is In The Air by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

While many flay away, trying to figure out the meaning of last weeks GOP wave election, it seems simple. The government has tried for more than five years to turn a Plow Horse economy into a Race Horse, and failed. Yes, the economy is growing and creating jobs, but living standards are growing slowly, or not at all, for many.

2014-11-07 00:00:00 Japanese Equities Look Better and Better by Nick Niziolek of Calamos Investments

Based on an intersection of bottom-up and top-down criteria, we've become increasingly constructive on Japan's equity market over recent months. Last week, the BOJ made a surprise announcement that it would increase its monetary target by 80 trillion and also purchase stock assets. Also significant was the BOJ's statement that it would consider buying exchange traded funds that track the Nikkei 400 Index, which should promote higher dividends, buybacks, and/or capex spending-all positive for equity markets and potentially for Japan's economy as well.

2014-11-07 00:00:00 5 Things To Ponder: GOP Takes Control by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

This past Tuesday the conservative Republican candidates garnered a resounding victory over their Democratic challengers in even some of the "bluest" states. The message that was sent by voters was quite clear: "The real economy sucks."

2014-11-07 00:00:00 'Risk On' for Now by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

U.S. high-yield bonds, leveraged credit, and equities will likely outperform in the coming months, but there are obstacles ahead.

2014-11-06 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

While Russia has been experiencing a slowdown for quite some time, the new round of sanctions imposed by the West has hit the economy even harder.

2014-11-04 00:00:00 Martin Wolf on the Financial Crisis: The Fire Next Time by Michael Edesess (Article)

If you think the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 was a one-time event caused by lax regulation and a financial industry run riot, then Financial Times chief economics commentator Martin Wolf has some bad news for you. Wolf, one of the world's most respected economists, says these circumstances were only part of its proximate cause and that the financial crisis was the inevitable product of the global economic system. If that system does not undergo radical change, says Wolf, financial crises may keep on recurring until the world economic order collapses.

2014-11-04 00:00:00 Rhyme and Reason by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

We?ll revisit the phenomenon of October as a month of negative market surprises. It actually has its roots in the interplay between farming and banking.

2014-11-04 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: September 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equity prices corrected in September on concerns about weaker global growth even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to wind down its bond purchases. Signs of yet another downturn in the Euro-zone economy are likely to hurt the export outlook for the major emerging countries that had seen a modest improvement in exports in recent months.

2014-11-04 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

The clear divergence in economic growth trends between the developed economies in North America and Latin America widened during the third quarter. The U.S. is now the fastest growing developed country in the world, and has lifted the outlook for Canada and Mexico, two of its major trading partners in the region.

2014-11-03 00:00:00 Worried About the Unknown? Focus on the Business Cycle Instead by John Greenwood of Invesco Blog

Lately, Ive been fielding questions about the possible unknowns that could bring about the end of the current economic expansion. While I understand investors trepidation about the unknown, I believe this concern is misplaced. Business cycles do not generally end because of unforeseen accidents. They normally end because central banks, in an effort to bring down inflation, raise interest rates, which creates an inverted yield curve and slows money and credit growth. We are clearly a long way from this scenario at present.

2014-11-01 00:00:00 Dont Be Spooked by Market VolatilityOpportunity Is Still Knocking! by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

One of the greatest fears this Octoberpossibly the most volatile month of the yearhas been the correlation between the S&P 500 Indexs ascent in the first three quarters of the year and the possible ramifications of the end of quantitative easing (QE).

2014-10-31 00:00:00 Buyer Beware: A Notable Divergence by John Del Vecchio of AdvisorShares

As a short selling portfolio manager, we constantly monitor market relationships for positive or negative divergences in the broad equity market indexes. One of the most important relationships is that between price and volume. In a bullish scenario, one would want to see volume expand as price rises.

2014-10-31 00:00:00 A New Breed of Robotics by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia

Are collaborative robotsindustrial robots made to better work alongside humanslikely to be well-received in the market? How feasible is a car made from a 3D printer? This week Portfolio Manager Kenichi Amaki discusses his findings from the International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago.

2014-10-31 00:00:00 5 Things To Ponder: "Spooky" Things by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

I love this time of year, in particular it is the festivities surrounding one of the biggest commercial shopping days of the year - Halloween. According to Wikipedia:

2014-10-31 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

Stress testing is performed in a number of arenas. Tools and parts are stressed to ensure that they will stand up to extreme conditions. Medical patients are stressed to detect heart disease. Computer systems are stressed to ensure that they can operate stably at peak times.

2014-10-30 00:00:00 Recovery Reality by John Canally of LPL Financial

The U.S. economy is improving, and in many cases is back to normal, but it remains stubbornly weak in some areas. Real world indicators that point to the health of the economy include crane rental rates and customer traffic in restaurants. Economic uncertainty -- likely a drag on economic growth in 2011, 2012, and 2013 -- has faded as a concern in 2014, consistent with the Feds most recent Beige Book.

2014-10-30 00:00:00 Stay the Course in Small Caps by Jonathan Coleman of Janus Capital Group

Small-cap stocks sold off in the third quarter, but now is not the time to abandon the market cap segment. In this article, Jonathan Coleman, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Janus Venture Fund, gives his perspective on current small-cap valuations, and why an allocation to small caps is beneficial in an environment where the U.S. economy is on stronger footing than the rest of the world.

2014-10-30 00:00:00 Europe Must Act Now by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Things in Europe are bad and policymakers appear already to have fallen behind the curve. The reality is the ECB will need to purchase at least another 1.5 trillion in assets, and even that may not be enough to avert a severe slowdown.

2014-10-28 00:00:00 A Framework for Superior Risk-Adjusted Returns: High Quality Stocks in Developed Markets by Baijnath Ramraika, CFA® and Prashant Trivedi, CFA® (Article)

A basket of high-quality stocks generates significantly superior investment returns compared to publicly traded benchmarks, and it does so with significantly lower risk.

2014-10-28 00:00:00 Why Consider Brazil Now? by David Nadel of The Royce Funds

We see Brazil as a country whose investment appeal appears evident based on enduring themes, including burgeoning middle-class consumption, a young and unlevered population, business acumen in fields as diverse as agriculture and manufacturing, and more.

2014-10-28 00:00:00 U.S. Budget: How Is Spending Trending? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

With the pivotal 2014 midterm election around the corner, here is the first of a two-part look at both sides of the U.S. budget. First up: Examining where U.S. taxpayers money actually goesand whether current spending trends are sustainable.

2014-10-27 00:00:00 Why The Fed Will End QE On Wednesday by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

This week we will find out the answer to whether the Federal Reserve will end its current quantitative easing program or not. Today is the last open market operation of the current program, and my bet is that it will be the last, for now. Here are my three reasons why I believe this to be the case.

2014-10-27 00:00:00 Fall Quarterly Commentary by John Prichard, Miles Yourman of Knightsbridge Asset Management

Born in the city of Lemberg in the Austrian-Hungarian empire (present-day Ukraine) (future-day Russia?), Ludwig von Mises would be a familiar figure to those interested in the intellectual underpinnings of economic libertarianism. He was an important contributor to the Austrian school of economic thought, which, while ultimately losing mainstream support to the Keynesians and their followers, has still remained influential in certain circles as an alternative.

2014-10-26 00:00:00 A Scary Story for Emerging Markets by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

The all-too-predictable effects of a rising dollar on emerging markets that have been propped up by hot inflows and the dollar carry trade will spread far beyond the emerging markets themselves. This is another key aspect of the not-so-coincidental consequences that we will be exploring in our series on what I feel is a sea change in the global economic environment.

2014-10-26 00:00:00 Plot Twistor a Different Book? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab

Volatility could continue but equity investors should keep the longer-term picture in mind, which we believe is positive. The U.S. economy is improving and monetary policy remains quite loose. The international picture is more concerning but diversification is important across asset classes. We currently favor emerging markets within a diversified international portfolio.

2014-10-26 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch

While equities have recently become volatile, the underlying fundamentals have not changed.

2014-10-25 00:00:00 As the Eurozone Stalls, China Cuts the Red Tape by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

France and Germanys industrial production has turned down recently. Their purchasing managers index (PMI) numbers are below the 50-mark line, indicating contraction. This trend is especially worrisome because Europe is a bigger trading partner with China than the U.S. is. So whats the solution? The EU would do well to look east, specifically to China.

2014-10-25 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Inflation is falling, but it won't go through the floor; Income inequality is affecting consumption categories; Do new mortgage lending rules strike the right balance?

2014-10-24 00:00:00 Steady as She Goes by John Osterweis, Matt Berler of Osterweis Capital Management

For some time now we have been making the case for a long-term bull market in U.S. equities. This has rested on the prediction of a gradual economic recovery devoid of inflationary pressures, played out against a very accommodative monetary backdrop. So far, this is exactly what has occurred. But as we all know, trees dont grow to heaven and nothing lasts forever. Therefore the relevant questions we ask ourselves every day are: (1) what could go wrong and (2) when should we start to worry? We shall devote this quarters Outlook to the things we worry about.

2014-10-23 00:00:00 When Will Rates Potentially Rise? by Team of Osterweis Capital Management

When 2014 started, some Wall Street strategists predicted a continuing rise in interest rates as U.S. economic growth accelerated and the Federal Reserve (the Fed) reduced its monthly stimulus. Instead, it has been a one-way street in government bond markets as they continued to deliver low yields at higher prices. In August, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Note fell to 2.3%, back down to June 2013 levels.

2014-10-23 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook by Team of Hoisington Investment Management

The U.S. economy continues to lose momentum despite the Federal Reserves use of conventional techniques and numerous experimental measures to spur growth. In the first half of the year, real GDP grew at only a 1.2% annual rate while real per capita GDP increased by a minimal 0.3% annual rate. Such increases are insufficient to raise the standard of living, which, as measured by real median household income, stands at the same level as it did seventeen years ago

2014-10-23 00:00:00 How Consensus Thinking Works Against Investors by Bob Andres of Andres Capital Management

Over the past several years we have used this newsletter to voice our concerns regarding the macro-economic landscape, while attempting to provide practical solutions for investors. Since our venture into financial commentary, we have questioned the veracity of consensus opinion and how it tends to be wrong, especially in regards to interest rates.

2014-10-22 00:00:00 The Eighth Default of Argentina by Kaisa Stucke, Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Very few countries have seen as spectacular of a decline in its economic standing over the past 100 years as Argentina has. Argentina has been in the international headlines recently due to its sovereign debt default, the eighth default in the history of the country. This week we will look at Argentina, its long history of economic booms and busts, its political background, and its extensive chronicle of sovereign debt defaults. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

2014-10-22 00:00:00 Mr. Toads Wild Ride by Alan Hartley of Black Cypress Capital Management

Every time the stock market falls 3% or 4%, investors start to act like were staring at an oncoming locomotive. Though, each train has been the sort from Mr. Toads Wild Ridenot really a train at all, just bright lights and sounds meant to scare us.

2014-10-22 00:00:00 Despite Volatility, This Bull Is Likely to Charge Higher by John Calamos, Gary Black of Calamos Investments

As the fourth quarter begins, the market has found itself engulfed in anxiety. Volatility has surged in the equity markets while the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 2%-leading some to question whether this bull market is breathing its last breath. We believe: * Global GDP growth will likely be in the 2.0%-3.0% range. * The U.S. is in the 5th or 6th inning of recovery, with slow but improving growth. * Despite the surge in volatility, this bull market has more room to run. * A balance of secular and cyclical growth companies presents the most attractive portfolio for this mid-cycle phase.

2014-10-21 00:00:00 Loomis Sayles Core Plus Bond Fund: Navigating Dynamic Markets with Tactical Flexibility by Sponsored Content from Loomis Sayles (Article)

The global economic cycle is a perpetual force influencing interest rates, credit availability and capital markets. For core plus managers who seek to generate total return by balancing liquidity and risk, these undulations pose a clear challenge.

2014-10-21 00:00:00 The Economy: October Viewpoint by Robert Cron of Bronfman E.L. Rothschild

The U.S. economy continues to move forward in its slow but steady recovery. Despite the Federal Reserve ending their bond buying program in October, demand for U.S. fixed income continues to be robust. The recent downward movement in the stock markets has some investors talking correction once again, and growth concerns overseas finally seem to affecting the performance of the domestic markets. We believe there is still more room for improvement for foreign economies, while the U.S. seems to be a more stable environment.

2014-10-21 00:00:00 The Flat Debt Society by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

Since at least the beginning of 2006, the most asked question I get after a speech is Do you think we will have inflation or deflation? In an attempt at humor, my answer has been Yes.

2014-10-17 00:00:00 Disinflation Infatuation by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial

Inflation expectations have fallen sharply in recent weeks, driven by European disinflation, lower energy prices, and overall growth concerns. The persistence of low inflation expectations may intensify the lower for longer theme via lower growth expectations and delays to potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.

2014-10-17 00:00:00 Pullback Perspective by Burt White of LPL Financial

We see the recent increase in volatility as normal within the context of an ongoing bull market. We do not believe the age of the bull market, at more than 5.5 years old, means it should end. We maintain our positive outlook for stocks for the remainder of 2014 and into 2015.

2014-10-16 00:00:00 Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don't by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

In an article in the UK's Telegraph on October 10, veteran economic correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard laid bare the essential truth of the nearly universal current embrace of inflation as an economic panacea. While politicians, CEOs and economists talk about demand stimulus and the avoidance of a deflationary trap, Evans-Pritchard reminds us that inflation is all, and always, about debt management.

2014-10-16 00:00:00 The Case for High Multiples by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit

High P/E multiple companies, along with their near cousins N/A and NMF, display the characteristics of mid- to late-cycle reporting periodsincreasing trends in cash flow, from negative to positive. The case for high multiples is initially supported by lofty valuations and low interest rates amid robust earnings in this perhaps peak cycle. Irrespective of the cycles and subcycles driving profitability, we look forward to more variable less certain comparables among changing industry-specific capital market dynamics.

2014-10-15 00:00:00 Dilma or No Dilma? by Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management

During the first round of Brazilian presidential elections on October 5, the incumbent Dilma Rousseff received 42% of the votes while Aecio Neves received 34%. Since neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the second round of runoff elections will be held on October 26. This week, we will look at the Brazilian presidential elections along with the countrys current political and economic environment. We will briefly describe the recent political history of the country and look at the specifics of Brazils economic development. As usual, we will conclude with market ra

2014-10-14 00:00:00 High Quality Mid Caps Enjoy Performance Advantage by Sponsored Content from ClearBridge Investments (Article)

Since 1965, high-quality midcap stocks have outperformed their low-quality peers by a meaningful margin-a premium that has been most pronounced during periods of market transition. As we approach an inflection point in the current market and economy, investors should consider high-quality mid-cap stocks, which appear poised to thrive.

2014-10-11 00:00:00 Warning: Market Correction This Week? Did You See the Opportunity? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

While stocks fell around the world this week amid growing concerns over global economic growth, Europes slowdown cant stop emerging market population growth that drives long-term commodity demand. If the short-term market volatility concerns you, a solution is short-term tax-free municipal bonds. Check out the 5 Reasons Why.

2014-10-10 00:00:00 Japan Strategist Roundtable: Jesper KollWhat Is Different This Time? by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree

When I spoke with Jesper Koll from J.P. Morgan Securities, one particular theme appeared in our conversation: Prime minister Shinzo Abe is an important catalystbut not necessarily the primary factorfor what is different this time in Japan.

2014-10-09 00:00:00 Can Anything Go Wrong for the Markets??? by Vineer Bhansali of PIMCO

?Risk management in proper portfolio construction consists of a combination of dynamic risk balancing, diversified beta sources, explicit options-based tail hedging and a minimum amount of liquidity. Faced with a long and expanding list of things that could go wrong, uncertainties about the likelihood of each shock and the lack of dependable precursory indicators, it seems that a structurally sound portfolio construction methodology that uses all these tools is essential.

2014-10-05 00:00:00 Weighing the Week Ahead: Will global weakness drag down the US economy? by Jeff Miller of New Arc Investments

Last week was all about data. This week will be the opposite. The calendar already dished up the big news, and the major earnings reports are still a week away. Meanwhile, we have more conferences and speeches than I can remember seeing for many months. For those of us who think of data as the signal and politicians and pundits as noise, we must get ready for a low ratio! This week will emphasize commentary rather than data, with world leaders, Fed types, and pundits all joining in.

2014-10-04 00:00:00 600 Million Reasons to Keep Your Eyes on India by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

In the wake of his rock star reception at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphatically announced to our nation's top corporate and political leaders that India is now open for business. Between September 26 and 30, he met with not only President Barack Obama and other high-profile politicians but also the CEOs of some of our nation's largest and most successful companies.

2014-10-04 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

What is a good monthly U.S. payroll number?; The September U.S. job data were strong but may not move the Fed's needle; Falling inflation and inflation expectations will keep central banks from tightening

2014-10-02 00:00:00 Will Risk Parity Performance Persist? by Chris Maxey, Brian Payne of Fortigent

With risk parity portfolios on the whole having outperformed traditional 60/40 allocations since the trough of the financial crisis, one must be mindful of the risks that lie ahead when determining the efficacy of such an approach.

2014-10-02 00:00:00 Six Months of Nothing by Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners

Political problems have escalated over the past seven months. Russia has been aggressive and so have extremists in certain Muslim countries. Having said that, financial markets seem to care about nothing but QE. Despite a growing disconnect in some markets between equity valuations and economic fundamentals, we expect the low interest rate environment to carry the equity bull market for a little longer, but eventually it will end in tears.

2014-09-30 00:00:00 Asset Allocation in a Time of Complacency by Dimitri Balatsos of Tesseract Partners

Complacency is a dangerous mindset, especially for investors. Having been generously rewarded beyond their expectations, investors were coddled in the arms of complacency as 2013 drew to a close.

2014-09-30 00:00:00 How Might Stocks Take a Hike? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Here's a look at what happened to equities during past periods when the Fed raised rates.

2014-09-29 00:00:00 The Ingredients of a Market Crash by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Market peaks often go through several months of top formation, so the near-term remains uncertain. Still, it has become urgent for investors to carefully examine all risk exposures. When extreme valuations on historically reliable measures, lopsided bullishness, and compressed risk premiums are joined by deteriorating market internals, widening credit spreads, and a breakdown in trend uniformity, its advisable to make certain that the long position you have is the long position you want over the remainder of the market cycle.

2014-09-27 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

The Federal Reserve begins looking toward the door; China's policymakers should be clearer about their intentions; Dissents at central banks are rising

2014-09-26 00:00:00 Many Investors Still Fear Stocks: Good News for Markets? by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

The economy and the stock market are no longer depressed, yet the share of U.S. adults who own stocks remains at multi-year lows. Russ explains why investors havent yet fully embraced equities and what this could mean for longer-term stock market performance.

2014-09-25 00:00:00 Three Reasons to Consider EM Asia by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

Though EM stocks have been struggling of late, Russ still believes investors should have emerging market exposure, particularly in emerging Asia. He provides three reasons why.

2014-09-25 00:00:00 China Defies Analysts Predictions with an Encouraging PMI by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

HSBC announced Tuesday that the preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) for China rose to 50.5, a modest improvement from Augusts 50.2. Analysts were expecting the index to decline to a neutral 50.0, based on softening factory employment, but this is a case when youre relieved others were off the mark.

2014-09-24 00:00:00 Equities: Finding the Path to Value? by Virginie Maisonneuve, Anne Gudefin of PIMCO

Going forward, earnings growth and stock selection - more than multiple expansion and beta - will likely play a bigger role in driving positive returns. Our research has uncovered numerous examples of stocks trading below our estimate of intrinsic value - notably in Europe and various special situations. Investors with the capacity for deep, fundamental research and a long-term unconstrained equity strategy may be positioned to capitalize on these opportunities.

2014-09-24 00:00:00 Fed Forecasts Sub-3% Economy for the Next Three Years by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

The Feds policy committee announced last Wednesday that it will end its massive QE bond buying program at the end of next month, thus paving the way for the first Fed funds rate increase sometime next year. This was not a surprise. The Feds gargantuan balance sheet will peak near $4.5 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds at the end of October.

2014-09-24 00:00:00 U.S. Budget: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

A report from the Congressional Budget Office forecasts shrinking deficits through 2015. After that, fiscal strains begin to emerge.

2014-09-23 00:00:00 Why "Healthspan" Trumps "Lifespan" for Clients by Dan Richards (Article)

Advisors spend a great deal of their time with clients who ask, "Will I run out of money?" As a result, few issues get more attention than the sustainable withdrawal rate in today's environment. But new research shows that an equally pressing question is, "How can I enjoy life in my 60s, before health issues creep in?"

2014-09-23 00:00:00 Bullish on Japanese Small-Caps by Francis Gannon and David Nadel (Article)

While the macroeconomic picture in Japan is unsettling for many investors, we are finding what we think are inexpensive high-quality businesses across many industries. Royce International Smaller-Companies Fund Portfolio Manager and Director of International Research David Nadel talks about how he is positioning his portfolio and explains why he has confidence in FamilyMart, a Japanese convenience store chain.

2014-09-22 00:00:00 The Ponzi Economy by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

When the most persistent, most aggressive, and most sizeable actions of policymakers are those that discourage saving, promote debt-financed consumption, and encourage the diversion of scarce savings to yield-seeking speculation rather than productive investment, the backbone that supports a rising standard of living is broken.

2014-09-22 00:00:00 It’s Time for Your Portfolio to Break from Tradition by Kathleen Gaffney, Kevin Dachille of Eaton Vance

Given the current low-yield environment and with rising interest rates looming, now may be the right time to consider new strategies for generating favorable returns in your fixed-income portfolio.

2014-09-21 00:00:00 Wheres the Growth? by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

Call me a heretic, but I take a different view than the economists in charge. To my mind, the sluggish recovery is a sign that central banks, governments, and, quite frankly, the textbook economists (despite their best intentions) are part of the problem. As Detlev Schlichter commented in his latest blog post (Keynes was a failure in Japan No need to embrace him in Europe), To the true Keynesian, no interest rate is ever low enough, no quantitative easing program ever ambitious enough, and no fiscal deficit ever large enough. It&r

2014-09-18 00:00:00 Room to Run by Marie Schofield of Columbia Management

The U.S. economy passed a milestone of sorts in August, in that the current business cycle has now surpassed the last one in length. The prior business cycle started in 2001 and continued until the December 2007 peak, lasting 6.8 years. This is longer than the post-war average of 5.6 years, but shorter than the business cycles in the 1980s and 1990s which lasted 9 to 10 years.

2014-09-17 00:00:00 America in the Driver’s Seat – Enjoy the Ride by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners

Like clockwork, earnings season has drawn to a close, creating an information vacuum for the stock market, one in which the media spends more time "making" the news than perhaps reporting it. The marginal dollar at trade - or the price maker in a high frequency dominated trading world - is one more likely to be concerned about the Fed's words over the next two days than the stream of earnings produced by corporate America over the next few quarters.

2014-09-16 00:00:00 Economic Update by Team of Cambridge Advisors

After a rocky month in July, stocks resumed their march higher in August. The S&P 500 was up 4.0% for the month and is up 9.9% year-to-date. The small cap Russell 2000 index also performed well for the month, up 5.0%. Year-to-date, small cap stocks have lagged and are up only 1.75% as of the end of August. International stocks continued to struggle in August and year-to-date with performance of -0.4% and +2.93% respectively.

2014-09-15 00:00:00 Bulls Charge Despite Weak Data by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

As the U.S. Federal Reserve debates withdrawing accommodation the doves have the upper hand, but that does not mean they wont make a concession to hawks and hike sooner than the market expects.

2014-09-15 00:00:00 Emphasize Barriers to Entry? by Mark Kiesel of PIMCO

We see many bottom-up investment opportunities in the global credit markets, particularly in industries with high barriers to entry. We view healthcare, lodging, Asian gaming, master limited partnerships/pipelines, energy, wireless telecom, cell towers, cable, satellite, media and U.S. banks as attractive industries. Companies unique patents, licenses, brands, content and intellectual property, among other advantages, can help support investment returns in both bull and bear markets.

2014-09-15 00:00:00 The Economy: September Viewpoint by Bruce Laning of Bronfman E.L. Rothschild

The U.S. economy experienced a robust summer for economic expansion and job growth, however recent consumer data is casting doubt as to whether the current level of activity can be sustained. Our position is to maintain an emphasis on higher-quality bonds and be prepared for short-term rate increase(s) in the months to come. The road ahead for stocks continues to look positive, but it would be prudent to keep in mind the inevitable speed bumps that will likely present themselves down the road, as we have not had a meaningful pullback since 2011.

2014-09-15 00:00:00 The U.S. Is Diverging From Other Developed Markets by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities fell amid a relatively quiet week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 1.1%. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting drew quite a bit of attention amid increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may start signaling its long-awaited move to increase rates.

2014-09-14 00:00:00 Whats on Your Radar Screen? by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

So lets look at whats on my radar screen today. First up (but probably not the most important in the long term), I would have to say, is Scotland. What has not been widely discussed is that the voting age was changed in Scotland just a few years ago. For this election, anyone in Scotland over 16 years old is eligible. Think about that for a second. Have you ever asked 16-year-olds whether they would like to be more free and independent and gotten a no answer? They dont think with their economic brains, or at least most of them dont.

2014-09-13 00:00:00 Will the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Chill Europe’s Recovery? by Philippe Brugere-Trelat of Franklin Templeton Investments

As the crisis in Ukraine and resulting geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West continues with no durable solution yet, many investors have responded by exiting European companies with exposure to the Russian economy. But even as evidence mounts that the Ukraine crisis is taking a toll on many European economies, it would be imprudent for long-term investors to give up on investing in Europe. Strong corporate earnings momentum, high dividend yields and the possibility of additional support from the European Central Bank (ECB) are just some of the reasons why he remains confident that,

2014-09-12 00:00:00 U.S. rates The Draghi floor by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

In typical fashion, last weeks European Central Bank (ECB) announcements found a way to bury the lede. The deposit rate cut to -20 basis points from -10 basis points was characterized as a technical adjustment, and the asset purchase program, while important, lacked a specific quantitative targetforcing investors to infer a rough figure from Mario Draghis comments in the press conference.

2014-09-12 00:00:00 Schwab Market Perspective: Diverging Paths…Growing Risks? by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs but sentiment is extended and we are entering a period that has historically seen weakness. We believe the ultimate trend is higher, but bumps could get more pronounced in the near future. The U.S. economy is improving, with data suggesting self-supporting expansion is taking hold. Whether this means accelerated Fed interest rate hikes is being closely watched, while midterm elections often inject some more uncertainty into the market. The European Central Bank (ECB) finally acted, but structural issues and lack of demand remain problems.

2014-09-11 00:00:00 Doubling Down on Inflation by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

Friday's release of disappointing August payroll numbers should have been a jarring wake-up call warning Wall Street that the economy has been treading on thin ice. Instead the alarm clock was stuffed under the pillow and Wall Street kept sleeping.

2014-09-11 00:00:00 The Leapfrog: The Role of Technology in Accelerating Emerging Markets Growth by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

The potential for emerging and frontier markets to realize accelerated economic growth as a result of new technology transfer comes up regularly in our research findings. We have been increasingly excited about a new developmentthe capacity for new technology, particularly related to data over the Internet, to completely bypass swathes of older technology and business activity. We think this could lead to even more dramatic economic progress. In effect, the emerging markets are leapfrogging over the old technology and taking advantage of the newest technology today.

2014-09-11 00:00:00 Why Growth Stocks Now? by John Calamos of Calamos Investments

After five years of a strong bull market, I believe theres still room for stocks to advance. Growth stocks look especially attractive. At 1.23, the premium for growth over value remains lower than the historical average of 1.44. Even when we omit the tech bubble from the long-term average, the 1.23 premium for growth is lower than that 1.37 average.

2014-09-10 00:00:00 Labor Force Participation Lowest in 36 Years - Why? by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

Last Fridays unemployment report for August was significantly weaker than expected. While the headline unemployment rate dipped back to 6.1% (same as it was for June), the number of new jobs created last month was substantially below expectations and marked the lowest number of the year.

2014-09-10 00:00:00 A Global Growth Slowdown? by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

As 2014 is shaping up to be another year of below-trend economic growth, many investors are wondering: Is economic growth once again slowing? Russ explains why his answer is no.

2014-09-09 00:00:00 How Rare are Housing Bubbles? Understanding the Case-Shiller Index and its Counterparts by Cesar A. Orosco and Laurence B. Siegel (Article)

Do house prices experience periodic bull and bear markets like the stock market? Or are they stable in real (inflation-adjusted) terms most of the time, with big disruptions once or twice in a century? Two popular house price series tell these very different stories. Knowing which is better will lead to superior investment outcomes and improved policy decisions.

2014-09-09 00:00:00 Market Perspective by The CCR Wealth Management Investment Committee of CCR Wealth Management

In our office we frequently make sport of the countless headlines we encounter on a daily basis from various media outlets across the web. These headlines are often splashed across the home pages of market or financial sitesthough often across mainstream news outlets, or the business sections of Sunday newspapers as well.

2014-09-09 00:00:00 Divergence by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

A widening gap in monetary policy in the United States and Europe reveals the disparity in economic growth that exists. Kristina Hooper explains the implications for investors and what history reveals about periods of Fed tightening.

2014-09-09 00:00:00 Xis Purge by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Since taking power, Chinese President Xi Jinping has implemented a strong program to punish corruption. A large number of the Communist Party of China (CPC) have been under investigation or punished for their failings. We believe these purges are being implemented for reasons beyond the simple exercise in political power. This report will discuss the purge in detail, introduce the concepts of environmental and social capital, and discuss Chinas four stages of growth. We will conclude, as always, with market ramifications.

2014-09-09 00:00:00 Escape Fandango? by Paul McCulley of PIMCO

When I entered the Fed-watching business over three decades ago, a clichd phrase of advice from graybeards was: Watch what they do, not what they say. Thinking back, there was not actually much Fed rhetoric to either watch or hear.

2014-09-09 00:00:00 Is it Time to Take the Euro Out of Europe? by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree

On September 4, the European Central Bank (ECB) took further accommodation to support the economic growth environment in Europe. As a result, the euro collapsed about 1% immediately after the news, while European stocks rose on prospects for more monetary policy easing. This reaction mirrors what we saw in Japan in 2013, and it strengthens the case for taking the euro out of Europe.

2014-09-09 00:00:00 Back to School With the Three Rs: Revenues, Reinvestment, and Renaissance by Burt White, Jeffrey Buchbinder of LPL Financial

We believe the three Rs are keys to the outlook for the stock market: revenues (and profits), reinvestment, and the renaissance in manufacturing. We expect stocks to garner support from these three Rs in the form of continued growth in revenues and profits, more corporate reinvestment, and continued steady gains for the U.S. manufacturing sector.

2014-09-07 00:00:00 Europe Takes the QE Baton by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

This week well look at what is happening across the pond in Europe, where the above-mentioned negative rates are only one ingredient in a big pot of Bizarro soup. And well think about what it means for the US Federal Reserve to be so close to the end of its quantitative easing, even as the ECB takes the baton to add 1 trillion to the worlds liquidity. And meanwhile, Japan just keeps plugging away.

2014-09-06 00:00:00 The New Challenges of Price Discovery by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

In the past few years, price discoveryor the act of finding the right price for a securityhas become much more challenging because of falling stock volume and widening bid-ask spreads. These challenges are directly attributable to the infiltration of high-frequency traders into the market, not to mention the expansion of dark pools and non-exchange trading.

2014-09-06 00:00:00 Are US Stocks Reacting Rationally? by Grant Bowers of Franklin Templeton Investments

When major market indexes reach new heights, some investors may become wary. Given that the US stock market has enjoyed robust total returns over the past five years (20092013), its only natural to question the sustainability of rising stock prices.Grant Bowers, portfolio manager of Franklin Growth Opportunities Fund, believes many of the same drivers of stock market performance over the past few years remain in place, including low inflation, healthy corporate profits and accommodative monetary policy. However, he also cautions that volatility is likely to pick up, particularly

2014-09-06 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Can the eurozone avoid Japanification?; U.S. employment: Less rosy than expected; The U.S. capital spending outlook is promising

2014-09-05 00:00:00 Will Russia Derail the Eurozone Recovery? by Nicola Mai of PIMCO

Geopolitical tensions from Ukraine and the evolving trade war with Russia are threatening what is already a weak recovery in Europe, and could shave approximately 0.3%0.4% off eurozone growth. Should the situation escalate, we could expect an even greater drag with potential to push the eurozone back into recession. Looking ahead, we see attractive opportunities in peripheral bonds and favour an underweight currency position in the euro.

2014-09-04 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: July, 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices saw a modest correction in July as geopolitical tensions worsened in Ukraine and the Middle East. The risk of these conflicts spreading to wider areas and pulling in more countries unnerved the markets.

2014-09-04 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary: July, 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equity prices continued to outperform the developed markets in July and ended the month with moderate gains. Markets in Asia significantly outperformed during the month, helped by signs of stabilizing economic growth in major markets such as China.

2014-09-04 00:00:00 Midterms May Mean More Gains for Stocks by Burt White, Jeffrey Buchbinder of LPL Financial

With the midterm elections now just two months away and campaigning starting to heat up, we thought we would share our current views on the political landscape and what it may mean for U.S equities. In our two Outlook 2014 publications for this year, we posited that the U.S. economy and corporate profits may drive the stock market higher and investors could turn their attention away from policymakers in Washington, who were such a distraction in 2013 and earlier in the current economic expansion.

2014-09-03 00:00:00 State and Local Governments Outpace the Feds by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

The fiscal health of state and local governments appears robust when compared with that of the federal government.

2014-09-03 00:00:00 For Wonks Only??? by William Gross of PIMCO

A credit-based financial economy (as opposed to pure cash) depends on an ever-expanding outstanding level of credit for its survival. Without additional credit, interest on previously issued liabilities cannot be paid absent the sale of existing assets, which in turn would lead to a vicious cycle of debt deflation, recession and ultimately depression.

2014-09-02 00:00:00 Stronger Growth Should Push Equities Higher by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

A rash of positive news propelled stock prices higher for the fourth consecutive week, marking the longest winning streak for equities since last November. The S&P 500 Index pushed above the 2,000 level for the first time as it gained 0.8% for the week.

2014-08-31 00:00:00 Abenomics, European Style by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate

Two years ago, Shinzo Abes election as Japans prime minister led to the advent of Abenomics, a three-part plan to rescue the economy from a treadmill of stagnation and deflation. It now appears that the European Central Bank has a similar plan in store for the eurozone.

2014-08-28 00:00:00 I Cant Save Europe Alone Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole by Bob Andres of Andres Capital Management

Janet Yellen began her prepared speech on monetary policy and the labor markets in Jackson Hole at 10:00am on Friday. Within minutes, analysts were offering insights into future interest rate policy. The equity markets dipped slightly only to recover quickly to pre-speech levels. The consensus view, which emerged after sifting through the release, was that Ms. Yellens view on interest rates may be a tad less dovish than previously expressed. With no video feeds emanating from the conference and with tepid market reaction, we asked ourselves, Is she whispering or is she Yellen?&rd

2014-08-27 00:00:00 EM Growth Provides Tailwind for Automation Companies by Nick Niziolek, Paul Ryndak of Calamos Investments

The pullback in Japanese equities earlier this year brought the valuations of select automation companies to attractive levels that do not fully reflect the long-term growth potential we see. The days of Henry Ford's assembly line are long gone, replaced by automated conveyor systems and robots that do much of the heavy lifting. Chinese labor costs are rising quickly, providing incentive for manufacturers to be more productive and contain costs. Also, the technical and quality requirements for manufacturing cars, phones and other electronics is increasing, requiring more precision.

2014-08-27 00:00:00 From the Alps to the Tetons by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull

Central bankers seem to be the focus once again. If the global economy were strong enough to stand on its own, we wouldnt spend every waking moment worrying about what Fed Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her European Central Bank counterpart Mario Draghi are going to do next. The fact that these bankers are front and center again in investors minds, is a function of both how sluggish the global economy is and how persistent the hangover from the mid-2000s real estate party continues to be.

2014-08-26 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview: July 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Recent economic data from the developed world have shown divergent trends while growth in the emerging economies appears to be stabilizing. The U.S. economy expanded at a faster than expected pace during the second quarter, more than offsetting the first quarter decline, which revised estimates show was not as severe as thought earlier.

2014-08-25 00:00:00 Broken Links: Fed Policy and the Growing Gap Betweeen Wall Street and Main Street by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

The issue is not whether the U.S. economy does or does not need life support. The issue is that QE is not life support in the first place. How can policy makers help to build the economy from the middle-out, and slow the both the unproductive diversion and the lopsided distribution of resources in our economic system? We should begin by stopping the harm.

2014-08-24 00:00:00 Measuring Real Wages: "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics" by Doug Short (Article)

Earlier this week I updated my commentary on "Five Decades of Middle Class Wages", an analysis of Real Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees. During the 21st century and especially since the end of the Great Recession, wages have clearly been stagnant.

But, as Mark Twain famously remarked, "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

2014-08-23 00:00:00 Managing Expectations by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The third part of this series on managing expectations is devoted to fundamental resource stock evaluation. I?ll discuss some of the statistical tools we use to pick quality stocks during a treacherous bear market, such as what we?ve seen in gold stocks the last three years

2014-08-22 00:00:00 Our Take on the Fed Minutes by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners

Usually, I don't have anything intelligent to say more than once every month or so and since I'm not a journalist, I'm never forced to make stuff up just to sell papers. I do believe, however, that the release of the Fed Minutes was worth a few of my minutes and perhaps yours. Even if you're yawning right now, please know that putting my thoughts in writing helps me to better manage your investments. As a money manager, we pick your investments, not your money managers. The buck starts and stops with us.

2014-08-21 00:00:00 Lucid Dreaming! by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Evidentially, the lucid dreamers on Wall Street practiced their skills two weeks ago as professional traders were sneaking large buy orders into the equity markets on the closing bell. Simultaneously, the Commitment of Traders Report showed those same traders were dramatically reducing their short sale bets.

2014-08-21 00:00:00 A Roadmap, Not a Timetable by Scott Brown of Raymond James

On Friday morning, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver the keynote address at the Kansas City Feds annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Those looking for clues on the timing of the first Fed rate hike are likely to be disappointed.

2014-08-21 00:00:00 Hospitals: No Longer in the ICU by Kyle Schneider of Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc.

The hospital industry has traditionally been below average from an investment standpoint, given its high levels of regulation, capital intensity, and leverage. Pricing power with private insurers is dependent on local market share, while Medicaid and Medicare rates are non-negotiable.

2014-08-20 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Economic trends from the region during the second quarter were in line with earlier periods, as the developed economies in North America are seeing healthier growth while most of the emerging economies in Latin America are facing a slowdown.

2014-08-19 00:00:00 Republic or Empire? An Update, Part 1 by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

This topic was last discussed in our report from 2012. We have expanded sections of it in this update and, due to length, will present it in two parts. Over the past two years, how American society answers this question is becoming increasingly critical. There is a steady undercurrent in American politics that seeks to withdraw the U.S. from world affairs. In this report, we will discuss how the American republic began, how it evolved into an empire and how America conducted this role. Next week, we will finish our analysis and discuss market ramifications.

2014-08-19 00:00:00 Share and Share Alike?? by Richard Clarida of PIMCO

Labor compensation as a share of national income fell sharply in 20092010 and has remained depressed: The share of national income at the end of 2013 was the smallest slice paid to labor in at least 60 years! During the last three U.S. business cycles, the rise in labors share that commenced during the expansion phase of the business cycle was not accompanied by a material rise in PCE inflation.

2014-08-18 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: August by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group® of Franklin Templeton Investments

The US economy seemed to move into a higher gear during the second quarter, when gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached an estimated annual rate of 4%, supported by personal consumption and inventory build-up. Its first-quarter downturn also was not quite as severe as previously thought, falling by an annual rate of 2.1% instead of the 2.9% initially reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

2014-08-18 00:00:00 Tug of War Continues Between Fundamentals and Geopolitics by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Important progress in the global recovery, U.S. labor market and corporate earnings has been masked by geopolitical tensions. The conflict involving Russia could have a significant impact on the eurozone and global growth. Market volatility is likely to increase in the short term, causing headwinds for risk assets.

2014-08-16 00:00:00 The Unfortunate Truth About the Bond Market? by Bob Andres of Andres Capital Management

During the past four years, we investors have been inundated by financial commentators, strategists, economists and equity gurus prognosticating the coming collapse of the bond market. I can say with confidence that they have been woefully wrong during this period I can also say with confidence that if they keep saying it, they will eventual get it right. These negative views on interest rates gained momentum in August of 2010 when Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz authored, The Bond Bubble and the Case for Equities.

2014-08-16 00:00:00 Managing Expectations - Part III by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

In the first of this three-part series on managing expectations, I discussed the role cycles play in the investment management process. At U.S. Global Investors, we actively monitor both short- and long-term cycles, from the annual seasonality of gold to four-year presidential elections, in order to manage expectations based on historical patterns.

2014-08-16 00:00:00 Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

You can almost feel it in the air. The froth and foam on markets of all shapes and sizes all over the world. Its exhilarating, and the pundits who populate the media outlets are bubbling over. Theres nothing like a rising market to lift our moods. Unless of course, as Prof. Kindleberger famously cautioned (see below), we are not participating in that rising market. Then we feel like losers. But what if the rising market is a bubble? Are we smart enough to ride it high and then bail out before it bursts? Research says we all think that we are, yet we rarely demonstrate th

2014-08-13 00:00:00 Banking on Banks by Bradford Evans of Heartland Advisors

Banks have not fully participated in market advances, but we believe they stand to benefit from growth in loan demand, rising short rates, or both. Opportunity for earnings growth and multiple expansion offer something you can take to the bank. It's a compelling space with attractive valuations, especially at the regional level, and merits a closer look.

2014-08-12 00:00:00 Baseball, Hot Dogs, and Apple Pie by Michael Kayes of Willingdon Wealth Management

What really is, or perhaps isn't, economic patriotism? Read on to find out how this issue is impacting our economy and markets.

2014-08-12 00:00:00 Reflections on WWI: Geopolitics and Markets by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

WWI was a devastating conflict and the postwar effects were substantial. From a market perspective, measuring the impact of geopolitics is difficult. Some events are short-term; others are more substantial but mostly cyclical. There are also events that permanently change the investing landscape. This report gives a short recap of the onset of WWI, and examines the problem that comes from induction, the logical process of observing the world and predicting the future. From there, we discuss the lessons learned from the post-WWII and post-Cold War era with an analysis of what may

2014-08-12 00:00:00 Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

With a geopolitical setback and a positive market development, the Middle East had a mixed second quarter. Amid the civil war in Syria, another conflict erupted in the region during the quarter as a militant group started systematically seizing territory from Iraqi security forces.

2014-08-11 00:00:00 Transformation or Bust, Part 2 by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

Envisioning a clear path through the issues from where we are today is not easy, though China certainly has more options than the world had with subprime by the middle of 2008, when there was so much toxic waste on the balance sheets of banks all over the world and there was no turning back. As we have emphasized in the past and will do today, China does have options. But each of the options has costs associated with it, and those costs are going up every day. Who pays and when is the simple question that most readers want to have answered, but therein lies the conundrum.

2014-08-09 00:00:00 Summer Void by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Although Wall Street and other corners of the business and political world may empty over the next few weeks, risks of a pullback in U.S. equities have gone up. Although we believe it would represent a buying opportunity and are optimistic longer term due to improving economic growth, nervous investors may want to consider a hedging strategy. China's stock market performance has improved and we remain positive, while European economic data has been more concerning, although the stocks still look attractively valued in our view.

2014-08-08 00:00:00 The Temptation of Market Timing by John Geissinger of Christian Brothers Investment Services

Highway drivers who shift lanes when traffic slows rarely get home faster. Likewise, investors who try to time market moves dont improve returns with any consistency. Rebalancing to thoughtful asset allocation targets is the best way to keep your portfolio in the fast lane.

2014-08-06 00:00:00 Grey Owl Q2 Investment Commentary by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management

Even after a second quarter rebound, gross domestic product (GDP) growth is barely positive for the first half of 2014. That has not stopped the S&P 500 from climbing to new highs. In fact, GDP growth has been weak for the entire recovery and, while improved, corporate sales and earnings also leave something to be desired. Stock market returns look better still, but only when compared to these weak results. Looking over a longer timeframe, the US equity market is approaching fifteen years of low single-digit returns.

2014-08-06 00:00:00 Consumer Confidence Hits 7-Year High - Really? by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

Today well look at several key economic reports over the last week or so. Most have been better than expected. The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index surged to the highest level in seven years in July. However, a couple of other reports well look at below paint a very different picture.

2014-08-05 00:00:00 Stock Market Valuations Suggest That This Bull Market Still Has Teeth by Team of LPL Financial

Losing under 3% in a week seems a minor concern given historical market ups and downs; nevertheless, investors may begin to wonder if stock market valuations are signaling a decline. Since the end of the last significant sell-off for stocks, the market has been in a pretty consistent upward trend. Valuation is a poor market-timing indicator; while valuation should always be considered, it is a blunt tool that should be taken into broader context.

2014-08-04 00:00:00 US Stocks Make 31 Record Highs in 2014, But Investors Panic During 3% Selloff by David Edwards of Heron Financial

US stocks as defined by the S&P 500 made 31 record highs in 2014, most recently on July24th. Through Friday afternoon, stocks declined 3.3%, which is to say less than the decline of 4.2% we saw in April of this year, and decline of 5.6% in January.

2014-08-02 00:00:00 Transformation or Bust by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

China continues to be front and center on my list of concerns, even moreso than the latest Federal Reserve press release or fluctuation in the Dow (although you should pay attention). I believe China is the single biggest risk to world economic equilibrium, even larger than Japan or Europe. This week my young associate Worth Wray provides us with a keenly insightful essay on what is currently happening in China. I will admit to not having written about China very much in the past five years, primarily because, prior to Worths coming to work with me I really had no secure understanding o

2014-08-01 00:00:00 A Tear for Argentina by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate

Argentinas latest default poses unsettling questions for policymakers. Though the countrys periodic debt crises are often the result of self-destructive macroeconomic policies, the default has been triggered this time by a significant shift in the international sovereign-debt regime.

2014-07-31 00:00:00 Principled Populism? by Paul McCulley of PIMCO

In the years before retiring from PIMCO in 2010, I often interviewed candidates for professional positions here, usually at the end of the process, after they had been thoroughly vetted through several rounds of interviews. My task was not so much to test candidates qualifications as to take their measure and for them to take mine!

2014-07-31 00:00:00 Are You Concerned about Small-Cap Valuations? by Tripp Zimmerman of WisdomTree

Stocks often move more than is justified by changes in their underlying fundamentals, and as a result, investors run the risk of paying too much for stocks that have become more expensive relative to their fundamentals.

2014-07-30 00:00:00 The Outlook for MLPs and Midstream Energy Infrastructure Continues to Look Bright by David Chiaro of Eagle Global Advisors

The quarter saw a number of positive developments that underpin our long term positive outlook on MLPs. Firstly, the need for new midstream infrastructure remains significant, and a number of announcements of large new projects highlighted that this need is not abating. Also, a significant new development in the quarter was the emergence of new export markets for ethane and condensate which will entail associated infrastructure development and other possible profit opportunities for MLPs.

2014-07-30 00:00:00 Fed's Janet Yellen To Continue Punishing Savers by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

New revelations have suggested that our new Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, may be the most liberal person to ever hold the highest monetary office in the world. This news comes after a recent extended interview Ms. Yellen did with The New Yorker Magazine and her testimony before Congress earlier this month.

2014-07-30 00:00:00 Trains and Boats and Planes? by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

hose of you who know me know that I have had a love affair with boats ever since I was a kid. In my youth it was speedboats on various lakes in Michigan. In my teens, and into my forties, it was sailboats combined with an occasional trawler. In later life, however, it has been strictly powerboats.

2014-07-28 00:00:00 Second Quarter Economic & Capital Market Summary by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

It seems there is a growing disconnect between what the financial markets are discounting and the reality of what is transpiring in the domestic and global economies. While economic growth has the potential to increase during the second half of the year we are not expecting a dramatic acceleration since there are still structural problems in the economy. The result is slow private credit expansion, a lack of fixed investment and a slow rate of business formation.

2014-07-28 00:00:00 Yes, This Is An Equity Bubble by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Make no mistake this is an equity bubble, and a highly advanced one. On the most historically reliable measures, it is easily beyond 1972 and 1987, beyond 1929 and 2007, and is now within about 15% of the 2000 extreme.

2014-07-28 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

During the second quarter of the year, the Emerging Europe region appeared to be displaying divergent trends. The fallout of the Ukraine crisis was not as damaging to the Russian economy as feared, with the economy even expanding during the review period. However, as the IMF pointed out, the sanctions imposed by the West appear to have dented investor confidence.

2014-07-28 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

More favorable earnings; more decent economic releases; more devastating global turmoil. Stocks were little changed during the week (though the S&P did move into record territory) as many investors went on much-deserved summer vacation. Hope they are well-rested because next week brings a new month, a vast array of key data, financial word from Big Oil and others, and hopefully progress on peaceful resolutions to the never-ending geopolitical conflicts.

2014-07-26 00:00:00 Second Quarter Earnings: Marching Toward a Strong Recovery by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

It?s earnings season once again, and though only a quarter of the Russell 1000 has reported so far, the news is just north of positive. All signs indicate that the market has dusted itself off and is back to its cheerful self after a ho-hum first quarter, which was negatively affected by harsh winter weather.

2014-07-25 00:00:00 Yellen: Where No Man Has Gone Before by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

Although Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said nothing new in her carefully manicured semi-annual testimony to Congress last week, her performance there, taken within the context of a lengthy profile in the New Yorker (that came to press at around the same time), should confirm that she is very different from any of her predecessors in the job. Put simply, she is likely the most dovish and politically leftist Fed Chair in the Central Bank's history.

2014-07-24 00:00:00 Mar Vista Investment Partners Second Quarter 2014 Review by Brian Massey of Mar Vista Investment Partners

Mar Vista Investment Partners second quarter commentary reviews the market and their large cap growth strategies during the most recent period and discusses the opportunities they see for their portfolios in the coming months.

2014-07-23 00:00:00 It’s Not Time to Pull the Portfolio Ripcord… Yet by Rick Vollaro of Pinnacle Advisory Group

The second quarter started in somewhat choppy fashion as small cap and other high flying momentum stocks continued to face pressure as investors decided to shed stocks with swollen valuation multiples. The major averages fared better than their risky counterparts, and after a brief dip stocks began their ascent towards record breaking highs on the back on improving economic data, decent earnings growth, and continuing liquidity support from global central banks.

2014-07-22 00:00:00 Cause and Effect: Bank of Japan Becomes Governments Largest by Bradley Krom of WisdomTree

Although central banks often use their holdings of government debt to affect monetary policy, the meteoric rise in the expansion of the BOJs balance sheet is unprecedented. With the BOJ continuing to signal its willingness to aggressively stimulate the economy, we highlight here what we believe are the most significant implications of these policies.

2014-07-19 00:00:00 The Municipal Bond World, According to John Derrick by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

I sat down with Director of Research John Derrick, who also manages our Near-Term Tax Free Fund (NEARX), to get his thoughts on interest rates, the bond market and what investors should pay attention to as we move into the second quarter of 2014.

2014-07-19 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

From the Suez Canal, to Japanese bullet trains, to the American interstate highway system, to the Millennium Bridge to the Three Gorges Dam, the grandeur of infrastructure is on full display the world over. Awe-inspiring and beautiful to some, these fixtures also play a critical role in the functioning of the global economy. The choices nations make in the area of infrastructure can bear critically on prosperity.

2014-07-19 00:00:00 Perspectives from the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab, and John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments

In early July, there was a noticeable disconnect between the median forecast of Fed officials for interest rates by end-2015 and the markets forecast, as expressed in the federal funds futures rate. But if unemployment continues to decline and inflation to pick up in the coming months, the danger for bond market participants is that their predictions for interest rates may be too low and will have to be adjusted.

2014-07-18 00:00:00 Reaching Escape Velocity? by Scott Brown of Raymond James

The strong pace of growth in nonfarm payrolls suggests much more than a rebound from bad weather. While recent economic figures have been generally mixed, the job market is clearly improving, led by increased hiring at small and medium-sized firms. The hope is that good news will feed on itself, lifting the pace of growth in the second half of the year. However, there are a few concerns in the outlook.

2014-07-18 00:00:00 Lack of Corporate Hubris Means Elongated Cycle by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors

When we started Richard Bernstein Advisors roughly five years ago, we thought the US was entering one of the biggest bull markets of our careers. Today, we are likely in the midst of this long bull market. Despite the general consensus that a bear market is on the horizon and investors ongoing interest in protecting potential downside risk, we do not think the Fed, investors, or corporations are yet sowing the seeds for the next recession.

2014-07-18 00:00:00 Summer Essays by Jeremy Grantham of GMO

In a new quarterly letter to GMO's institutional clients, co-head of asset allocation Ben Inker uses the evolving Boston culinary landscape as a backdrop to examine the tendency of investors to pursue a "free lunch," when they should be looking for the "investing equivalent of an inexpensive and tasty food truck meal instead." In his section, chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham looks back at investing mistakes made over his 47-year career, paying special attention to his formative investing years and the "painful lessons" learned therein.

2014-07-17 00:00:00 Mind the Gap by Tod Schneider of Diamond Hill Investments

Every companys earnings can be evaluated on a quantitative and qualitative basis. Strictly speaking quantitative analysis is straightforwardis the company growing sales, profits, free cash flow, etc.? Analyzing these metrics in the context of competitive factors, sources of revenue and profit growth, and broader secular trends is a more subjective exercise but a very important one to pair with quantitative analysis.

2014-07-17 00:00:00 Equities Remain Resilient in Current Environment by Charlie Dreifus of The Royce Funds

While there was a brief shift towards higher quality from April through mid-May, low quality reasserted itself in June to mark a fairly mutedand mixedsecond-quarter performance for small-caps. Forty-plus-year industry veteran Charlie Dreifus discusses the market's behavior during this period, as well as the U.S. economy and stock market.

2014-07-17 00:00:00 Trading Secrets: The Feds Maginot Line by Tad Rivelle of TCW Asset Management

It has been six years since the Fed zeroed out rates and still we wait for assisted growth to become real growth. Beginning with the recovery summer of 2010, the Fed has proclaimed that cheap money would rocket the economy to escape velocity, launching an organic, self-sustaining economic recovery. Instead, central bank policy has vaulted asset prices into the stratosphere even as wages wait their turn on the launch pad. Low rates have failed to deliver the goodies, but the Fed has its story and is sticking to it.

2014-07-17 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook, Second Quarter 2014 by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

Hoisington and Hunt review the second quarter in their regular review.

2014-07-15 00:00:00 Two Top Experts Debate the Outlook for Growth by Laurence Siegel (Article)

Growth may slow, as Robert Gordon contends, at least when measured by GDP - if only because population growth is slowing. But that is not a foregone conclusion. And even if it were to happen, it doesn't mean that global standards of living would face a similar deceleration. Moreover, GDP doesn't fully capture the improvements in the standard of living that come with advanced technology.

2014-07-15 00:00:00 Time to Invest in Change by Dan Kozlowski of Janus Capital Group

After significant multiple expansion in 2013, some of the best remaining opportunities for equity investors may lie with stocks that are due for a change in market sentiment as the company enacts dramatic changes to its business.

2014-07-14 00:00:00 Col. Jessup and Rufus T. Firefly by Michael Kayes of Willingdon Wealth Management

There is a tried and true methodology for dealing with disconcerting trends in the equity market. Read on to find out what it is.

2014-07-14 00:00:00 Strategies for Income-Seeking Investors by Ed Perks of Franklin Templeton Investments

Many income-seeking investors have traditionally centered their portfolios around government bonds, often failing to consider other asset classes. Ed Perks, executive vice president and director of portfolio management, Franklin Equity Group, believes equities can be a key part of an income-oriented portfolio, although individual stock selection is particularly important as valuations rise and interest rate dynamics may change.

2014-07-12 00:00:00 2014 Commodities Halftime Report by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

What a difference six months can make. After a disappointing 2013, the commodities market came roaring back full throttle, outperforming the S&P 500 Index by more than 4 percentage points and 10-year Treasury bonds by more than 6.

2014-07-10 00:00:00 On a Personal Note: "It is Wealth to be Content" by Doug Short (Article)

Last month the Advisor Perspectives newsletter featured an interesting article by best-selling author Dan Solin on "The Sad State of Happiness". Dan opened the article with some compelling observations:

"I have never met anyone who did not want to be happy. Yet few of us take concrete steps toward that goal. Part of the problem is that too many of us confuse happiness with increased wealth."

His article prompted a series of comments in APViewPoint. I was particularly struck by a comment from financial guru Larry Swedroe:

2014-07-10 00:00:00 Guarding Against Complacency by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Investors should expect a quiet summer with markets rolling along, but with valuations becoming frothy now is a time to consider greater exposure to assets with higher credit quality.

2014-07-10 00:00:00 The End of Quantitative Easing by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

During the Financial Crisis, as the capital markets seized up and interbank lending froze, traditional tools of monetary policy proved ineffective. The Federal Reserve implemented a series of initiatives called Quantitative Easing that essentially used the central banks balance sheet to purchase bonds in the open market and directly manipulate interest rates lower. This tool proved extremely powerful and allowed the Fed to manipulate interest rates across the yield curve which, in turn, allowed for a wave of refinancing activity that helped to lower borrowing costs.

2014-07-09 00:00:00 Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter: Second Quarter 2014 by John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management

John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX), remarks in his latest quarterly letter that it appears "the precious metals complex, both mining shares and bullion, appears to be in the process of completing a major bottom extending back to mid-2013." He goes on to add that he is "becoming more comfortable with the proposition that the downside potential has been fully exhausted after nearly three years of declining prices and that the stage has been set for a major advance in the years to come."

2014-07-09 00:00:00 And That's the Quarter That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

The dismal winter weather is finally in the rearview mirror and stocks continued their record-setting ways.

2014-07-09 00:00:00 Will Firming Fundamentals Lead to a Firmer Fed? by Team of Northern Trust

Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy declined at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter. Bad weather and distortions from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) left overall growth significantly weaker than expected. Nominal GDP fell at an annual rate of 1.7% in the first quarter, the first such occurrence during an expansion in the entire post-war period.

2014-07-08 00:00:00 Why Free Trade Hurts Economic Growth by Marianne Brunet (Article)

Free trade, deregulation and limiting the federal government's powers form what Columbia professors Joseph Stiglitz and Bruce Greenwald call the Washington Consensus - the core precepts that have dominated policymaking for the last 50 years. But those ideas are misguided, they contend. Tariffs and trade restrictions, for example, are fine, especially if they are part of a broad framework that stimulates learning throughout a society.

2014-07-08 00:00:00 Slow but Steady Growth by Richard Michaud of New Frontier Advisors

In the second quarter of 2014 major asset class performance was positive. The Dow was up 2.4%, the S&P up 4.7%, and the NASDAQ up 5%. International equities nearly kept pace with US equities; the MSCI ACWI ex US was up 3.8%.

2014-07-07 00:00:00 The Tide is High by Edward Talisse of Chelsea Global Advisors

It took a while but I think I finally get it. The Federal Reserve has embarked on a Parallel Campaign - operating on two separate planes that seemingly never intersect, yet both having readily recognized similarities. My eureka moment finally came this past week when Ms. Yellen, in a rebuff to the Bank for International Settlements, said "because resilient financial system can (now) withstand unexpected developments, identification of bubbles is less critical."

2014-07-05 00:00:00 I'm Grateful to Live in America. Here's Why. by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

An important principle of our investment process at U.S. Global Investors is a belief that government policies are a precursor to change. As a result, we closely monitor the fiscal, monetary and other impactful governmental policies of the worlds largest countries, both in terms of economic stature and population. Were always listening for the proverbial shot heard around the world. As we approach Americas Independence Day, this belief rings especially true.

2014-07-05 00:00:00 June Employment Situation: Fitting Gift for Americas Birthday by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Todays U.S. employment report was a very good one. It was strong enough to suggest good economic momentum but not so strong as to alarm the Federal Reserve.

2014-07-01 00:00:00 The 2014 Mid-Year Geopolitical Update by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

As is our custom, we take the middle of the year to reflect on the current geopolitical situation. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the big picture conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance: Americas Strategic Drift, Chinese Maritime Expansion, The German Problem, and The Remaking of the Middle East.

2014-06-30 00:00:00 The New Normal of Healthcare Spending by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

A rather interesting shockwave came across the newsfeeds this week. I was actually doing a TV interview when the host announced that GDP was down 2.9% for the first quarter. There was not much else I could do but note that that was a really bad, ugly, terrible, not very good number.

2014-06-30 00:00:00 Revisiting Valuation Extremes - 2008 to Now by Team of GaveKal Capital

Last week we took a look at how much price to book multiples have expanded since 2008. Today, we are undergoing the same exercise but this time we are looking at price to cash flow multiples.

2014-06-28 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

The recovery which began in 2009 has been weak and uneven. Some have blamed scarring from the financial crisis: wounds to the balance sheets of households, banks, and governments are taking a long time to heal. Under this school of thought, returning to pre-crisis normalcy is simply a matter of time, with the mending promoted by accommodative monetary policy. If the strategy works, well eventually return to the 3% real growth that weve averaged over the past generation.

2014-06-28 00:00:00 Health Care Sector Spurred by Population Growth and M&As by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Recently I spoke with John Derrick, director of research here at U.S. Global, to pick his brain about what he thought was the most interesting sector right now. You might expect him to have said energy, perhaps because of the intensifying violence in Kurdistan Iraq, a major oil producer. But instead, he said that he had his eyes on health care.

2014-06-26 00:00:00 Iraq Crisis Impact on Oil? by Tim Guinness, Will Riley, Jonathan Waghorn of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management

The rise and rapid expansion of the Sunni enclave known by its new rulers under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (or ISIS; al-Sham means greater Syria) comes as no great surprise. No-one can predict how far it can expand or how quickly it will be crushed (if ever).

2014-06-26 00:00:00 The Signal and the Noise by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are dismissing as noise signs that inflation pressure is building, but perhaps they should be listening more closely.

2014-06-25 00:00:00 Truth or Consequences? by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

I am always trying to manage the risks inherent with investing (or trading), for as Benjamin Graham stated, The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns. Well-managed portfolios start with this precept. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why I often wait on an investment until its share price is at a point where if I am wrong, I will be wrong quickly, and the incidence of loss will be small and manageable.

2014-06-24 00:00:00 Is The Fed Underestimating Inflation? by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Following a week in which investors took pause and focused on the negatives, they reversed course last week and pushed equity prices higher. A number of factors seemed to contribute to the positive tone, not the least of which was an indication from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that there will be no near term change to its accommodative monetary policy.

2014-06-21 00:00:00 Ah, the Power of Mean Reversion. by Frank of U.S. Global Investors

The chatter this week has been gold. The precious metal flew up $45 an ounce on Thursday, surprising investors, the media and markets alike.

2014-06-20 00:00:00 Global Economic Perspective: June by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments

With 10-year US Treasury yields dropping below 2.5% at one point during early June in spite of improving forward economic indicators, the US bond market has continued to send out confusing signals, in our view. Purchasing manager indexes have remained well over the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction for many months, consumer demand has remained relatively buoyant, and nonfarm payrolls show job creation running at over 200,000 per month for 13 of the 21 months to May 2014.

2014-06-18 00:00:00 Fed Outlook: Playing It Close to the Vest by Scott Brown of Raymond James

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this week to set monetary policy. The FOMC is widely expected to further taper the monthly pace of asset purchases (not on a preset path, but continuing in measured steps). The bigger question is when the Fed will begin to raise short-term interest rates. The correct answer is it depends. Fed officials are currently debating the order of steps to be taken as they begin to normalize monetary policy.

2014-06-17 00:00:00 Boko Haram by Kaisa Stucke and Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

On April 14, the Nigerian terrorist group Boko Haram kidnapped 276 girls from their school in the town of Chibok, Nigeria. Investor interest in African economies has been increasing over recent years, piquing an interest in the continents rising economic and demographic power, Nigeria. This week, we will take a look at the country of Nigeria, including its history and economy. We will then describe the evolution of the terrorist group Boko Haram and its strategic goals and leadership. We will conclude with items of importance when investing in Africa, in general, and Nigeria, specifical

2014-06-14 00:00:00 Stealthy, Silent…Sustainable? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

US stocks should continue to move generally higher although activity may remain sluggish through the summer and the possibility of a correction is elevated as per both seasonal/election cycle tendencies and elevated optimistic sentiment. The U.S. economy should help support the market as signs are increasing that we may be entering the long-waited for self-sustaining expansion. The ECB's actions weren't game changing but are helpful and European equities look attractive, while we believe the worries over a Chinese slowdown are overblown.

2014-06-13 00:00:00 Trading the Last Third of a Move by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

When bull markets mature, investors fear a coming crisis and today there are plenty of candidates from Europe to China to Thailand. Still, some of the best profits may lie ahead.

2014-06-12 00:00:00 Central Banks Chart a Course for Overheating by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

When bull markets mature, investors fear a coming crisis. Today there are plenty of candidates from Europe to China to Thailand. But bull markets climb a wall of worry and there are reasons now not to expect a looming crisis.

2014-06-12 00:00:00 Many Moving Parts by Scott Brown of Raymond James

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, but it appears very unlikely that weve entered a recession. Weather disruptions and the late Easter have made it difficult to gauge the underlying trends in the economic data, but a significant second quarter rebound appears to be baked in. Still, taking the first two quarters together, growth in the first half of the year is likely to be disappointing relative to earlier expectations.

2014-06-11 00:00:00 The US Economy The Good, The Bad & The Ugly by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

As is true more often than not, there are mixed signals in the economy. There are indeed some green shoots emerging that suggest the economy is finally gaining some momentum. Yet there are also continued troubling signs that, while not warning of an impending recession, suggest that we could be stuck in a structural period of continued below-trend growth.

2014-06-10 00:00:00 The Crossroad by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs

As summer peeks around the corner, a machine with two wheels is silently calling me, telling me that a new adventure awaits. This machine stirs up memories of past adventures, which builds in me a desire to head out to places unknown. I know that before summer ends I will answer its call, but for now I will just have to relive a few moments from trips past.

2014-06-09 00:00:00 Bright Signs for the Economy and Equity Markets by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

The macro backdrop last week was positive for the markets. As expected, the ECB cut interest rates, highlighting the favorable global monetary policy backdrop. Closer to home, solid vehicle sales and a good May labor market report gave investors additional reasons to bid up stock prices. The S&P 500 Index advanced 1.4%, marking a third straight week of gains above 1% the longest such streak since last September. Looking ahead, we believe the combination of an improving world economy, low levels of volatility and easy global monetary policy should continue to provide support for equ

2014-06-09 00:00:00 Why are bond yields and volatility so low? by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust

This years mid-point review would not be terribly kind to me or to other forecasters. None of us foresaw a big U.S. economic contraction during the first quarter of the year, although we should have better times ahead (as long as the Polar Vortex doesnt return). A more vexing surprise, however, has been the steep decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the persistently low market volatility during the years first half.

2014-06-09 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was... by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Let the summer partying begin. With the ECB alerting its Fed counterparts (and investors everywhere) that its policymakers will take whatever measures necessary to aid its economy and combat deflation, stocks again moved to record levels on key indexes and even the small-cappers recovered from the perpetual April slide and turned "in the black" for the year. The manufacturing and labor sectors appears to have put the winter storms behind them and even the consumer has shown signs of thawing out in time for the summer. Vacation anyone?

2014-06-09 00:00:00 Jobs return to pre-recession peak by Ryan Davis and Brian Payne of Fortigent

Global equity markets cheered the European Central Banks (ECB) decision to lower rates and provide further monetary stimulus last week, as the DJIA and S&P 500 gained 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively. As one might imagine, notable outperformance came from Europes peripheral countries with Italy (MSCI Italy) and Spain (MSCI Spain) gaining 3.4% and 2.6%, respectively.

2014-06-08 00:00:00 Can Central Planners Revive Chinas Economic Miracle? by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

We are going to try gamely to finish with China today, having left at least three or four letters worth of copy on the editing floor. There is just so much information and misinformation to cover. Im going to turn it over to Worth and then follow up with a few final thoughts of my own.

2014-06-07 00:00:00 China Leads the World in Green Energy, Gaming and Gambling Markets by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Last month, Xian Liang, co-portfolio manager of our China Region Fund (USCOX), attended the 19th CLSA China Forum in Beijing. There he and hundreds of other global attendees were given the opportunity to meet with representatives from Chinese corporations, some of which U.S. Global owns. Xian also managed to get a sense of how the nation?s recent changes in consumer behavior and governmental policy reforms might affect its investment outlook. Although China remains an emerging market, it has lately taken a number of considerable strides to position itself as one of the world?s most

2014-06-05 00:00:00 Acta Non Verba by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Now is the time for strong actions rather than words from the European Central Bank, but their actions could send more capital to the United States and push interest rates lower over the summer.

2014-06-03 00:00:00 The US Housing Market's Darkening Data by Brian Pretti of

Unlike past housing price cycles, the current environment is being driven not by natural household formation, but by a central bank-fueled investment cycle where institutional and foreign capital are the largest influence on the marginal price. This is unknown territory for homebuyers and certainly unsustainable at today's price levels. Brian Pretti shows how price mean reversion is inevitable; and urges homeowners (both residents and investors) to take steps not be as vulnerable as they were in 2008.

2014-06-02 00:00:00 Equities and Bonds Diverge Amid Low Volatility by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Another week brought another record close for equities. The S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% for the week, notching a new high, but investor attention appeared to be focused elsewhere. Low levels of market volatility, a pickup in M&A activity, a difficult revenue environment for banks and improving housing data all gathered headlines, yet the bond market garnered the most focus.

2014-05-31 00:00:00 From Constantinople to Istanbul, Turkey Has Never Been Better by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Every time he travels to Turkey, portfolio manager of our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX), Tim Steinle, says the country continues to develop. Although technically classified as an emerging market, one wouldn?t think to label the country as such upon arrival. The population is young and growing, there are improvements to infrastructure everywhere you look, beautiful green parks are more prevalent, and the professional staffs that run many of the shops and businesses are both well organized and thriving.

2014-05-31 00:00:00 Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

China has the potential to become a real problem. It seemed to me that almost everyone who addressed the topic was either seriously alarmed at the extent of Chinas troubles or merely very worried. Perhaps it was the particular group of speakers we had, but no one was sanguine. If you recall, a few weeks back I introduced my young colleague and protg Worth Wray to you; and his inaugural Thoughts from the Frontline focused on China, a topic on which he is well-versed, having lived and studied there. Our conversations often center on China and emerging markets (and we tend

2014-05-30 00:00:00 Taking Advantage of Pessimism by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The world is distracted with fears of the next great calamity, but heading into summer U.S. financial markets are enjoying a remarkably positive environment.

2014-05-27 00:00:00 Kyle Bass: The Looming Crises in Asia by Robert Huebscher (Article)

For the last several years, nobody has been more outspokenly bearish on Japan than Kyle Bass. In a recent talk, Bass reiterated his doubts about Japan's chances of averting a debt crisis. What's more, he also said China's economy will fall below expectations.

2014-05-27 00:00:00 Four Market Risks to Focus on This Summer by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

What could lead to a more severe market correction? While theres a long list of things that could go wrong in 2014, Russ lists four market risks to pay attention to this summer.

2014-05-27 00:00:00 Emerging Markets: The Fragile Five and Beyond by (Article)

Indonesia, India, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, as well as Thailand and Russia are the focus topics, as the challenges facing some emerging market countries are discussed against the overall perspective of the natural ebb and flows of the global market.

2014-05-25 00:00:00 A Bubble in Complacency by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

The simple fact is that we are in what I call a Muddle Through Economy. Things arent terrible, but they are not great, either. Weve come through a devastating Great Recession caused by a crisis in the financial sector. It is quite typical for the effects of such a crisis to linger for a decade or more. So compared to where we were at the bottom of the Great Recession, the glass is half-full. But compared to the expectations we have for economic recovery and the resumption of vibrant growth, half-full seems like an exaggeration. And for many people, the glass is simply empty, whil

2014-05-25 00:00:00 Mounting Momentum? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Although the stock market remains sluggish, with the potential for a correction elevated, the U.S. economy appears to be improving. There is probably no great rush to get into the stock market at this point, but maintaining a steady investing discipline in the face of what we think is a continuing secular bull market is key. Investors frustrated with the low yield environment should be careful about adding too much risk to a portfolio in search of higher yields.

2014-05-24 00:00:00 In a Flash, China Looks Strong by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

If you want to know where the world economy is headed, there is one number that I believe investors should focus on: the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). On Thursday, the preliminary flash PMI for May came in at 49.7, beating Bloombergs consensus of 48.3.

2014-05-22 00:00:00 Scarce Growth - Can the Tortoises Continue to Outpace the Hares? by Robert McConnaughey of Columbia Management

For some time we have suggested that in a world slowly recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, aggregate global growth would be sub-par and that investors would benefit from seeking scarce growth, so long as that growth did not become wildly overvalued. Recent market action has tested that stance severely.

2014-05-22 00:00:00 Why We're Often Bullish When the Market Turns Bearish by Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds

While economic anxiety has hit the market prior to the often bearish summer months, we continue to concentrate on matters less publicized: a shift in equity market leadership in favor of quality driven by rising interest rates.

2014-05-21 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

What goes up must come down (and then go up again). Such was the fickle week in the stock market. After soaring to new highs on the major indexes, investors went into selling mode (profit-taking for the most part?), before jumping back in for the end-of-week bargain shopping.

2014-05-20 00:00:00 A Revised Bond Market Outlook? by Scott Brown of Raymond James

A year ago, as Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke of the possibility of tapering the Feds Large-Scale Asset Purchase program (QE3), bond yields moved higher. Theyve been range-bound over the last year, but have more recently dipped to the lower end of that range. Whats driving the bond market?

2014-05-20 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Masterclass by (Article)

In this two-part video, 45-year industry veteran Tom White offers an in-depth review of emerging markets, including those that are currently facing challenges, but also the developing markets that are now presenting attractive opportunities.

2014-05-17 00:00:00 Which Resource Areas Show Signs of Strength? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Global synchronized growth, as measured by the Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), remained stable or positive for the past 12 months until Japan reversed the momentum in April with a precipitous drop in its PMI. China is contributing modest growth but, fortunately, the U.S. and Europe are rebounding. This lack of consistent global momentum has created a short-term, volatile, hot and cold, stop-and-go sentiment. Global real GDP growth peaked in 2010 at 5.2 percent then slowed for the next three years to 3 percent. Global growth in 2014 is likely to accelerate, for the first time in four y

2014-05-15 00:00:00 Schroders Monthly Markets Review: Overview of Markets in April 2014 by Keith Wade, Azad Zangana, Craig Botham of Schroder Investment Management

Global equities edged higher in April. Some stronger macroeconomic data from developed economies helped to support returns but the ongoing crisis in Ukraine remained a headwind for equities. Developed markets outperformed emerging markets. In the US, a generally firmer tone to macroeconomic data and a broadly encouraging corporate earnings season supported sentiment. Investors were also reassured by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen about maintaining low interest rates.

2014-05-14 00:00:00 Has Dividend Investing Lost its Luster? by Paul Stocking and Dean Ramos of Columbia Management

With interest rates rising in 2013 and after a number of years of outperformance from high-yield dividend paying equities, investors want to know if dividend investing remains an attractive strategy. With corporate balance sheets looking healthy and dividend payout ratios remaining low by historical standards, we believe dividend growth will continue to be strong. In our view, high-yielding equities will continue to provide strong total returns especially relative to fixed income alternatives.

2014-05-13 00:00:00 Is Rising Consumer Credit a Good Thing? by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

When gauging whether a rise in consumer credit is a sign of progress or cause for concern, investors should look beyond debt levels to assess whos taking on more debt and why, as well as the pace of economic activity, writes Kristina Hooper.

2014-05-12 00:00:00 Setting the Record Straight by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

If you think the market is not going to lose a large fraction of its value over the next few years, a century of history thinks youre wrong.

2014-05-11 00:00:00 Are Valuations Really Too High? by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

I have done quite a number of media interviews and question-and-answer sessions with audiences in the past few months, and one question keeps coming up: "Are valuations too high?" In this weeks letter were going to try to look at the various answers (orthodox and not) one could come up with to answer that basic question, and then well look at market conditions in general.

2014-05-10 00:00:00 The Good, the Bad and the Opportunity by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Twice a day, in the morning and at lunch, our investment team sits down together to discuss what?s important and what?s immaterial. This past week, in my opinion, the good outweighed the bad. Much of the economic news was a direct result of government policies, both fiscal and monetary. Here are my findings, which I hope will help you filter through the noise.

2014-05-08 00:00:00 Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - Q1 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

As the Middle East and Africa region stepped into the New Year, the three regional economies under our coverage did not see any material change in their political or economic situation. Labor problems remained the most immediate concern for South Africa while Egypt unveiled yet another stimulus program to mend an economy that has been struggling amid political uncertainty for three years now.

2014-05-08 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Yes, spring has officially sprung. After months of hearing that "poor winter weather" excuse, investors seem ready to turn the page (and the calendar) as the 1st quarter GDP is now in the books. With that said, the numbers are expected to be stronger in the coming days and the markets are already reacting accordingly as the Dow Jones even pushed into record territory. Manufacturing and labor have shown signs of thawing out, though housing still lags behind. Earnings season has been better than expected and must of the over-analyses focuses on the outlooks these days.

2014-05-06 00:00:00 Optimists and Pessimists Find Fuel in Jobs Data by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Last week?s batch of hot and cold jobs numbers pointed to a conflict that the Fed saw coming months ago, writes Kristina Hooper: The unemployment rate is a flawed metric for gauging the health of the economic recovery.

2014-05-06 00:00:00 The Risk Trilogy by W. Ben Hunt of Salient Partners

Gregg Greenberg at was kind enough the other week to give me a few minutes (2:30 to be exact) in a video interview to enumerate the three biggest risks I saw facing markets today. At first I rolled my eyes at the request and the format. 150 seconds? Really? I mean, have you heard my Alabama drawl? It can take me 150 seconds just to order a cup of coffee.

2014-05-05 00:00:00 Retail, Infrastructure Are Issues to Watch in Colombia and Peru by Jason Trujillo of Invesco Blog

The Invesco Emerging Markets team spent a week traveling through Colombia and Peru, meeting with company management teams, consultants and government officials. During our trip, two themes were prevalent that could have broad implications for local companies and global investors: the relative under-penetration of modern-format retailing throughout Colombia and Peru, and the severe need for infrastructure improvement.

2014-05-05 00:00:00 Economic Capital Market Summary by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

After the Financial Crisis and the resulting Dodd-Frank Act and Affordable Health Care Act, we knew there was no way we would go back to normal, whatever normal really was. Our world changed and we still continue to feel the uncomfortable mutations after the crisis. The management of Citigroup showed another disconnect with regulators as its 2014 capital plan was rejected. After several attempts to launch its healthcare website, the Obama administration announced that over 8 million people had signed up for health care insurance through the government exchange.

2014-05-04 00:00:00 Albania's Fertile Grounds for Oil Opportunities by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Texas is oil country. The state I now call home leads the nation in oil production and would be one of the top oil-producing nations if it were its own country. But that doesn?t stop us from exploring other promising oil opportunities further afield. Last week I traveled to Albania to check out a drill site of Petromanas Energy, a Calgary-based international oil and gas company focused on exploration and production throughout Europe and Australia. We own the junior stock in our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) and Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX).

2014-05-03 00:00:00 Housing may be returning to a bad neighborhood by Team of Northern Trust

The head of financial stability at the Bank of England recently called rising property prices ?the very brightest [hazard] light on its dashboard.? But he may have a difficult time getting his colleagues who are charged with promoting full employment to agree with him. And if they do, it is far from clear what they might do about the issue. Some favor supervisory curbs; others prefer the more-traditional method of raising rates. The recovery in global real estate has been pronounced. While it beats the alternative, one wonders whether the hard lessons learned in recent corrections have been su

2014-05-02 00:00:00 Yellen?s Three Big Questions (and a Few Others) by Scott Brown of Raymond James

Speaking to the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Janet Yellen presented an analysis of the monetary policy actions taken to address the Great Recession and offered guidance on what will drive policy decisions going forward. The centerpiece of her talk was about the three big questions that the Fed has to answer. However, there are a number of other debates going on in economics right now that have long-term consequences.

2014-05-02 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Outlook - April 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equities as an asset class have been underperforming developed market equities for more than three years, though they continue to maintain the lead over 10-year returns. The divergence in returns between emerging and developed markets widened sharply in 2013, when the prospect of reduced capital inflows heightened investor concerns about slower economic growth in the emerging countries.

2014-05-01 00:00:00 Old Embers Never Die by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The situation in Ukraine could become worse than markets now anticipate as Putin?s best interests might not be what investors expect.

2014-05-01 00:00:00 Small-Cap Valuations: Way Too High or Room to Run? by Adam Peck of Heartland Advisors

Small-cap stocks have been on a tear for several quarters. Conventional wisdom in this situation would be to shift assets away from small-caps, and reallocate them to other asset classes. The concept sounds reasonable, but is it well-grounded in fact? What is the state of small-cap valuations today? These questions merit a closer look.

2014-04-29 00:00:00 How to Help Business Clients Unlock Wealth by Bob Veres (Article)

Is there a way to help your business clients diversify their holdings, take some risk off the table and create a side investment portfolio that will sustain them if their business runs into trouble? Is there a way you can help your clients find capital when they need it most?

2014-04-29 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review - Q1 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

The developed economies in North America continue to see relatively healthier growth prospects this year, while the outlook for the emerging economies in Latin America remains subdued. Trends from both the U.S. and Canada indicate that these economies are recovering from the slowdown at the beginning of the year, caused by adverse weather.

2014-04-29 00:00:00 Will a Rise in Rates See a More Lasting Shift to Quality? by Charlie Dreifus of The Royce Funds

Late March saw signs of a re-emergence and shift back to the kind of quality names that we like. Portfolio Manager and Principal Charlie Dreifus discusses the recent Fed policies and their effects on the market, his outlook on the U.S. and global economy, current valuations, small-cap quality, and more.

2014-04-29 00:00:00 Putin's Ideologist by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

For the past few months, Western leaders have been baffled by Russia?s behavior toward Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Eastern Europe. To better understand Russia?s actions, we will examine the ideology of Aleksandr Dugin, the man who created the ideology that appears to be behind Putin?s behavior. We will offer a short biography of Dugin, focusing on his intellectual roots and the creation of the Eurasian Concept. Using Dugin?s framework, we will examine Putin?s recent behavior. As usual, we will conclude with market ramifications.

2014-04-28 00:00:00 Henny Pennies by Tony Crescenzi, Mike Amey, Tadashi Kakuchi, Ben Emons of PIMCO

While the Fed?s qualitative guidance may have increased uncertainties over monetary policy, volatility will likely remain contained by powerful short- and long-run forces related to the economic outlook. In the UK, we should at least respect the risk of a hike late in the first quarter of 2015, earlier than what is currently priced in. In Japan, we believe the BOJ will remain full throttle on its current monetary easing for some time.

2014-04-28 00:00:00 The Devolution of Diversification by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital

We are only some 40 years removed from an era when the typical investment account had 12 or fewer individu-al holdings, and less than 20 years removed from a time when respected stock funds might hold 20-30 stocks and be considered ?fully diversified?. Now we find that the typical active equity portfolio or fund holds between 50-100 individuals stocks and that there are generally three or more such active equity managers for each institutional or high net worth account, all adding up to hundreds of underlying holdings.

2014-04-28 00:00:00 Resisting the Sirens by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates

There has been an interesting shift in the market over the past several weeks, as high-growth stocks (an area to which we have limited exposure, given our preference for more fairly-valued growth opportunities) have suffered a significant correction after being the darlings of the market since June of last year.

2014-04-27 00:00:00 The Cost of Code Red by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

There is reason to believe that there have been major policy mistakes made by central banks - and will be more of them - that will lead to dislocations in the markets - all types of markets. And its not just the usual anti-central bank curmudgeon types (among whose number I have been counted, quite justifiably) who are worried. Sources within the central bank community are worried, too, which should give thoughtful observers of the market cause for concern.

2014-04-26 00:00:00 China Holds the Keys to the Gold Market by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

It?s important to follow the money, or in this case the gold, to see how people around the world react to this rare commodity. Looking forward, stay curious as an investor and you?ll see if China can keep the key to the gold market.

2014-04-25 00:00:00 Rhyme or Reason? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Stocks have seen wide swings recently, but year-to-date major indexes are roughly flat. Volatility may persist, but we suggest investors look past the near term and focus on the underlying fundamentals.

2014-04-25 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

The link between money and inflation has clouded, but it hasn?t disappeared

2014-04-25 00:00:00 A Strong Balance Sheet by William Smead of Smead Capital Management

In his book, Great by Choice, Jim Collins points out that companies he defines as great have good luck and bad luck just like all the other companies do. The great companies handle difficult circumstances better than good companies and take the most advantage of the breaks they get in business.

2014-04-24 00:00:00 Global Economic Outlook by Team of Northern Trust

Advanced economies should dominate the growth picture in 2014, but the jobless rate is likely to show only a small improvement

2014-04-23 00:00:00 The Real Obamacare Nightmare is Just Beginning by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

Last Thursday, the Obama administration said that a total of eight million Americans had signed up for Obamacare. In a hastily called press event, President Obama spiked the football, took a victory lap around the White House and declared the healthcare law a smashing success ? although they still haven?t told us how many enrollees have actually paid a premium, or how many were simply replacing their policies that were canceled due to Obamacare.

2014-04-23 00:00:00 Yellen?s Three Big Questions (and a Few Others) by Scott Brown of Raymond James

Speaking to the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Janet Yellen presented an analysis of the monetary policy actions taken to address the Great Recession and offered guidance on what will drive policy decisions going forward. The centerpiece of her talk was about the three big questions that the Fed has to answer. However, there are a number of other debates going on in economics right now that have long-term consequences.

2014-04-22 00:00:00 Taxes are the Pits, But Not for Everyone It Seems by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

A number of Americans breathed a joyful sigh of relief last week after closing the books on their 2013 income taxes. The annual rite of passage rarely elicits excitement when addressed in conversation, and this year was unlikely to be any different. But, the latest tax data suggests the economy is gaining speed, news bound to make even the most hardened filers crack a smile.

2014-04-22 00:00:00 Israel ? Under the Radar by Brad Jensen of AdvisorShares

In recent travels and presentations, I was asked frequently about Israel. How is it that the Israeli market is #2 in our country ranking methodology? It seems as though the country is off the radar screen of most investors, so a quick overview of the market and why it ranks high currently seems to be in order.

2014-04-22 00:00:00 2016 (Part 3, The Election Situation) by Bill O?Grady of Confluence Investment Management

In this final report, we will analyze why we think 2016 may be a pivotal election and examine the potential that it could bring about a coalition change similar to the 1932 and 1980 elections. We will discuss the various methods of addressing the current high level of private sector debt and offer what we believe to be the three highest probability scenarios of how the current problems can be addressed and their impact on the domestic political scene and on America?s superpower role. Unlike our last two reports, we will conclude with market ramifications.

2014-04-22 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - Q1 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

The International Monetary Funds latest assessment of the global economy pointed out that robust economic recovery in developed countries has significantly reduced the risk of a downturn this year. The Washington-based lender said it sees growth in emerging and developing Europe as a whole at 2.4 percent in 2014, which is expected to accelerate to 2.9 percent next year.

2014-04-21 00:00:00 The Economic Cost of Brazil?s Spending Spree by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

Brazil has been on a spending spree during the past few years, which, unfortunately, has failed to generate meaningful growth and has led to negative economic consequences. In addition to the lavish spending in preparation for the FIFA World Cup? this summer and the Olympic Games in 2016, Brazil?s national oil company has been spending billions of dollars on expensive offshore oil exploration, production and energy development.

2014-04-21 00:00:00 The Federal Reserve's Two-Legged Stool by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

In viewing the Fed?s mandate as a tradeoff only between inflation and unemployment, Chair Yellen seems to overlook the feature of economic dynamics that has been most punishing for the U.S. economy over the past decade. That feature is repeated malinvestment, yield-seeking speculation, and ultimately financial instability, largely enabled by the Federal Reserve?s own actions.

2014-04-18 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

After examining much of the latest scholarly research, and conducting in house research on the link between household wealth and spending, we found the wealth effect to be much weaker than the FOMC presumes. In fact, it is difficult to document any consistent impact with most of the research pointing to a spending increase of only one cent per one dollar rise in wealth at best. Some studies even indicate that the wealth effect is only an interesting theory and cannot be observed in practice.

2014-04-17 00:00:00 Equity Outlook by Team of Osterweis Capital Management

Short term, we would not be surprised if the market took a breather after its strong gains last year. Additionally we may see volatility related to news coming out of the Middle East and Russia. But longer term, we remain very optimistic on the outlook for U.S. equities. In addition to the reasons we discussed above we believe U.S. equities are very attractive relative to the alternatives. The great bull market in bonds appears to be over. The great decades of emerging market growth appear to be behind us.

2014-04-17 00:00:00 Why Energy is Catching the Market's Eye by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Over the last month the energy sector has outperformed the market, and as you can see in the chart below, has done so by 6.5 percent. Year-to-date the sector is beating the S&P 500 Index by over 3 percent. In a spectacularly performing market during 2013, energy lacked some of the incredible performance seen throughout the other sectors, but recently it has turned up, catching the attention of the market yet again.

2014-04-16 00:00:00 Echo-Mania at The Fed by Cliff Draughn of Excelsia Investment Advisors

Greetings from a thawed out Savannah! Q1 of 2014 will be remembered for a number of things, but the most prominent were the erratic weather patterns and arctic-blast temperatures that most of the country experienced. I missed writing my Q1 letter for the first time in ten years due to a nasty bout with pneumonia in mid-January. For those of you who have never had pneumonia, I do not recommend it!

2014-04-15 00:00:00 Credit Availability Underpins Recovery in Commercial Real Estate Prices, But Also Poses Risks to CMB by Bryan Tsu of PIMCO

Credit availability, low interest rates, limited new construction and improving economic conditions have contributed to the recovery in commercial real estate (CRE) prices. We expect a strong 2014 in the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market, which has been a primary source of CRE credit expansion. Increasingly aggressive loan underwriting is a concern. CMBS investors need to speak with their wallets and push back on either valuations or underwriting standards if recent trends continue.

2014-04-15 00:00:00 5 Things You Need to Know About the Selloff by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Kristina Hooper puts the sharp pullback in the stock market in perspective for investors who may be wondering about a correction.

2014-04-14 00:00:00 Uncovering Opportunities in Emerging Markets by Mark Kiesel of PIMCO

Emerging markets have underperformed expectations, but the longer-term secular outlook remains constructive for many regions. Highly negative investor sentiment and outflows have sharply reduced prices, significantly improving relative value in emerging markets. We see opportunities in emerging markets in interest rates, sovereign credit and select companies for investors with a longer-term investment horizon. ?

2014-04-12 00:00:00 Every Central Bank for Itself by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Whether the FOMC can actually turn the taper into a true exit strategy ultimately depends on how much longer households and businesses must deleverage and how sharply our old-age dependency ratio rises, but markets seem to believe this is the beginning of the end. For now, that?s what matters most. Under Fed Chair Janet Yellen?s leadership, the Fed continues to send a clear message to the rest of the world: Now it really is every central bank for itself.

2014-04-10 00:00:00 The Russians Are Coming by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming is a 1966 American comedy film directed by Norman Jewison and based on Nathaniel Benchley?s book The Off-Islanders. The movie tells the Cold War story of the comedic chaos that happens when a Soviet submarine runs aground closely offshore a small island town near New England and the crew is forced to come ashore. Last Friday, however, rumors that the ?Russians are coming? swirled down the canyons of Wall Street, causing a late Friday Fade that left the S&P 500 (SPX/1865.09) down an eye-popping 24 points.

2014-04-10 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

One quarter down; three to go. After a rough January, stocks rebounded to complete a solid quarter with the Dow Jones the lone main index still "in the red." The new week found decent numbers from manufacturing and labor and investors moved past the "bad weather" excuse, though still took profits from high-flying bio-techs and internet stocks. The late-week selling hindered the overall equity performance.

2014-04-09 00:00:00 Reasons To Remain Optimistic In 2014 by Sandra Martin of Martin Investment Management

The equity markets have taken a respite in 2014 after returning more than 32% in 2013. Margin expansion has been the largest influence on profit growth and should continue with present low inflation expectations. We believe that mergers and share buybacks may continue to increase shareholder value for large capitalization stocks.

2014-04-08 00:00:00 How to Avoid the Coming Crunch on Advisor Compensation by Dan Richards (Article)

Here are the two key ways that life will look very different for financial advisors in 10 years: a change in the structure of advisor practices and downward pressure on compensation.

2014-04-07 00:00:00 The Other Side of the Mountain by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Having witnessed the glorious advancing portion of the uncompleted market cycle since 2009, investors might, perhaps, want to consider how this cycle might end. After long diagonal advances to overvalued speculative peaks, the other side of the mountain is typically not a permanently high plateau.

2014-04-07 00:00:00 The Doubt of Appearances by Dimitri Balatsos of Tesseract Partners

Households have made significant progress mending their balance sheet in the post-crisis period. Assets have been boosted on the back of higher home values and stock prices, while liabilities have been trimmed, mostly mortgages, thanks in large part to widespread home foreclosures.

2014-04-04 00:00:00 Meet "Lowflation": Deflation's Scary Pal by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

In recent years a good part of the monetary debate has become a simple war of words, with much of the conflict focused on the definition for the word "inflation." The latest front in this campaign came this week when Bloomberg News unveiled a brand new word: "lowflation" which it defines as a situation where prices are rising, but not fast enough to offer the economic benefits that are apparently delivered by higher inflation. Although the article was printed on April Fool's Day, sadly I do not believe it was meant as a joke.

2014-04-04 00:00:00 A New Machine: Is a Capital Spending Cycle Imminent? by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Activist investors have helped highlight companies bias toward stock buybacks/dividends vs. longer-term capital investments. Preconditions for a pickup in capital spending appear to be lining up. The technology and industrial sectors are likely the biggest beneficiaries.

2014-04-03 00:00:00 Q2 fixed income outlook ? Hitting for the cycle by Gene Tannuzzo of Columbia Management

By the middle of this year, the economic expansion in the U.S. will officially turn five years old. By comparison, the average of all business cycle expansions tracked by the National Bureau of Economic Research dating back to the mid-1800s is about three and half years. But like many five year olds, this cycle hardly seems mature. In particular, we have taken notice of three key elements of the business cycle that have distinct implications for bond investing today.

2014-04-02 00:00:00 Gain International Exposure with Small-Caps by David Nadel of The Royce Funds

Portfolio Manager and Director of International Research David Nadel discusses our attraction to international small-caps, how our investment approach translates into the international small-cap universe, how we try to avoid value traps, the effect monetary policy has had on our approach and performance, and more.

2014-04-02 00:00:00 Consumer Confidence Up, But Concerns Remain by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

The Conference Board reported last week that its Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 82.3 in March (up from 78.3), the highest reading since January 2008, just as the recession was beginning. But the two underlying components of the Index provided two different perspectives, as we will discuss today.

2014-04-01 00:00:00 A Look at First Quarter Market Performance by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

As the first quarter draws to a close, equity markets appear poised to finish in positive territory despite a somewhat tumultuous news environment. As noted by Bloomberg, save for a sharply negative Monday period, the S&P 500 will close out a fifth consecutive quarter in positive territory for the first time since 2007.

2014-04-01 00:00:00 Fundamental Tango by Scotty George of Alexander Capital

The economy and financial markets are forever sending out mixed, parallel, or confusing messages. Inflation or stagflation? Buy now, or take your profits? Proceed slowly, or go home? At this moment, the signals are hardly synchronized.

2014-03-31 00:00:00 Shifting Policy at the Fed: Good for Long-Term Growth, Bad for Cyclical Bubbles by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

The Fed is wisely and palpably moving away from the idea that more QE is automatically better for the economy, and has started to correctly question the effectiveness of QE, as well as its potential to worsen economic risks rather than remove them.

2014-03-29 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Using energy as a pawn may work to Russias disadvantage in the long run. Chinas 2014 economic outlook is hazy. Lessons from the 2014 stress test.

2014-03-28 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

The outlook for the developed economies in North America remains healthy while the emerging economies of Latin America continue to face headwinds. Though recent data from the U.S. and Canada have indicated moderation in economic activity, most of the slowdown was likely caused by adverse weather conditions in the region.

2014-03-28 00:00:00 Lacking Conviction by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Investors seem to lack conviction, what will potentially push them to one side or the other.

2014-03-26 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Well, apparently Janet Yellen has her own style, her own personality, her own mixed message. Just as Fed watchers had to get used to Bernanke in the aftermath of maestro Greenspan (does that name still apply after the financial crisis?), investors will need a few meeting to figure out the new Fed Chair. An early rebound was followed by a selloff which was followed by a rebound which was followed by a late-week selloff. Nicely done, Ms. Yellen (though Russia played a role as well).

2014-03-26 00:00:00 Picture This by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Picture this: you?re an investor starting out in the 1940s after World War II came to an end. Your own experience in the contemporary history of the stock market would've taught you that bonds were the safer, and superior, asset allocation over the long-term.

2014-03-25 00:00:00 Why I Sold - Part 4 by Jim Whiddon (Article)

The months I spent considering whether to sell my successful independent RIA were difficult personally and professionally. But once my decision was made, it felt good to focus on the positive aspects of a merger that would benefit my staff and my clients.

2014-03-25 00:00:00 Janet Yellen Enters the Picture by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

After bursting onto the scene earlier this year, Janet Yellen held her first official FOMC meeting last week. Rather than upset the apple cart, she held a largely status quo stance, but several comments raised more than a few questions.

2014-03-25 00:00:00 Will Putin Stop with the Crimea? by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Now that the Crimean referendum has passed in favor of annexation, what will Putin do next? In other words, will he stop with the Crimea? In this report, we will look at the post-Cold War situation from Putin?s perspective. From this viewpoint, we will examine Putin?s likely next steps and how this will affect the U.S. and the rest of the developed world. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

2014-03-25 00:00:00 Stocks: "Aging Bull" Could Still Pack a Punch by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Bearish market observers fret that earnings growth will falter and that current equity valuations are unsustainable. Their worries are misplaced.

2014-03-24 00:00:00 Market Outlook by Scotty George of Alexander Capital

For those of us that have been around for awhile, we have come to recognize that each Federal Reserve Board Chairman has had a unique way of speaking and a unique personality. Remember the "Volcker Rules"? How about "Greenspan-speak"? Well, last week we had a chance to take a measure of the person, and her language, who currently presides over monetary policy, Fed Chair Janet Yellen. And while a snapshot is not necessarily a truism of the embodiment of the whole, there were a few takeaways, not the least of which was the market's (once again) overreaction to what was being said.

2014-03-24 00:00:00 Is the Fed Supporting the Equity Markets? by Tom Riegert of Hatteras Funds

The Federal Reserve?s unprecedented increase in reserves purchased through its quantitative easing programs has paralleled the performance of the equity markets to a startling degree. Has the Fed?s program been supporting the equity markets? We examine the strong correlation between the Fed?s balance sheet and the performance of the S&P 500 since end-2008, and ponder the effects the Fed?s long-awaited tapering will have on market volatility. Investors facing the uncertainty ahead could well find alternative investments a welcome addition to their portfolio.

2014-03-21 00:00:00 A Second Leg to Our Economic Outlook by Will Nasgovitz of Heartland Advisors

In our heavily consumer?driven economy, it can be easy to overlook the importance of corporate capital spending. We?ve seen a number of data points suggesting such expenditures are due for an uptick.

2014-03-21 00:00:00 Emerging Markets: Four Reasons for Caution, Not Abstinence by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

In the space of three years, emerging markets have gone from a key strategic asset class to persona non grata. But while Russ shares investors? concerns on the near-term outlook for EM assets, he doesn?t agree that EM stocks should be completely shunned.

2014-03-19 00:00:00 Is the Fed's Monetary Mojo Working at Last? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

It just might be. Data suggest that the central bank?s massive liquidity boost may be starting to flow into the broader economy.

2014-03-19 00:00:00 Objects in the Rear View Mirror May Appear Closer Than They Are: A Look Back at the 1990s by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Human nature tells us to look back to help divine the future. Today's environment looks strikingly similar to the mid-1990s, which has pros and cons.

2014-03-19 00:00:00 If They Will Lend, Someone Will Spend (on Something) by Paul Kasriel of Econtrarian, LLC

Upon awakening from my winter hibernation way up here in beautiful northeastern Wisconsin, I have noticed that bank asset managers have been anything but hibernating. Rather, they have been quite busy expanding their loans and securities.

2014-03-17 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary - February 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

After a weak start to the year, emerging market equity prices recovered in February as concerns about slower than expected global expansion and a further decline in Chinese economic growth subsided.

2014-03-15 00:00:00 Like Houdini, the Markets Escape Again and Again by Stephen C. Sexauer of Allianz Global Investors

Like the great escape artist Harry Houdini, the markets have repeatedly escaped a series of potential catastrophes. Central banks around the world have coordinated policy making these escapes possible, but the end result is another trap from which we need to escape - seemingly permanent low interest rates for savers ("financial repression"), slow growth, and high asset prices. Financial repression is better than an outright debt deflation, but it causes its own problems. The outlook is for low returns.

2014-03-14 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Global trade negotiations have stalled; This is a delicate time for Chinese finance; Where will Europes growth come from?

2014-03-13 00:00:00 PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: A Steady Passage in 2014? by Saumil Parikh of PIMCO

PIMCO's baseline expectation is for 2.5% to 3% real growth in the U.S., thanks to trends toward growth and spending in the consumer, corporate and public sectors. In the eurozone, our baseline expectation of 1% to 1.5% real growth calls for a broad-based cyclical improvement in domestic demand amid steady external demand. We anticipate Japan will be the only major developed economy experiencing a slowdown this year, down to 0.5% to 1%, and we expect China's growth will continue slowing as well, with growth in the range of 6.5% to 7.5%.

2014-03-13 00:00:00 Beware of Earnings Gimmicks by Jason Wang of Columbia Management

Since the global financial crisis, economic recovery worldwide has been slow. Over the last three years, annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the U.S. was limited to 2.1%, significantly below its long-term average of 3.3%. In this low growth environment, for a majority of companies, churning out high earnings-per-share (EPS) growth rates, either through top-line growth or margin expansion, has become increasingly more difficult.

2014-03-12 00:00:00 Reflections on Ukraine by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Over the past five weeks there have been a number of significant events that have occurred in Ukraine. A president has fled, a revolutionary government is forming and Russia has taken de facto control over the Crimea. The events themselves are momentous but the broader effects are significant as well. In this report, we will offer three reflections?Putin?s Gambit, The U.S. Adrift and A Dangerous New World. Although any of these could be a topic in themselves, we will shorten these issues to offer a single journey through the current crisis. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications

2014-03-11 00:00:00 U.S. Economy: The Mild Kingdom by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

"Animal spirits" remain caged as business spending lags. What will it take to unleash them?

2014-03-11 00:00:00 Thirsty for Income? Try Dividend Growth by Frank Caruso of AllianceBernstein

Chasing yield has become a challenging mission for investors in recent years. As yields collapsed in fixed income, investors flocked to bond-like substitutes such as high dividend-yielding stocks. Now that these stocks have become a bit pricey, we think companies with strong dividend-growth potential offer a better way to source equity income.

2014-03-10 00:00:00 Positive Payroll Report Offsets Geopolitical Concerns by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities increased 1.1% last week after somewhat volatile trading due to heightened tension in Ukraine. Although the crisis dominated headlines, the market relegated the major geopolitical issue to the back burner. The broader macro narrative did not change, as concerns about dampened growth momentum continued to be pacified by the distortion from adverse weather.

2014-03-10 00:00:00 Tech Bubble 2.0? by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

The $19 billion acquisition of WhatsApp by Facebook in late February put an exclamation point on several high profile takeovers in the technology space in recent months. Sizeable deals such as Google?s $3 billion acquisition of Nest and Facebook?s $3 billion offer for SnapChat have fueled the idea that an indiscriminate buying spree in the technology space a la 1999 could set up financial markets for another valuation bubble.

2014-03-07 00:00:00 Inflation Blues: Is it Time to Start Worrying? by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Inflation was revised higher in the latest GDP revision; while an increase in the minimum wage could push it higher still. But we remain sanguine about inflation risk as long as velocity and wage growth remain low. The key to watch near-term is bank lending, which is starting to accelerate sharply; signaling the possible return of "animal spirits."

2014-03-07 00:00:00 Making Green from Gold, Palladium and Pollution by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Gold is coming back with a vengeance, experiencing a clear recovery and grabbing the attention of market cynics. Analysts from Noruma Securities even upgraded its outlook for gold, expecting bullion to climb over the next three years, according to Barron's.

2014-03-06 00:00:00 The Briefest Flight to Safety by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Tensions in Ukraine and tapering speculation seem unlikely to derail rising U.S. equity markets and the positive outlook for U.S. credit.

2014-03-04 00:00:00 David Rosenberg: No U.S. Recession in Sight by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Following a lackluster recovery that began in June 2009, many fear the U.S. is due for another recession, given that the average post-war economic expansion lasted five years. But we’re only in the "fourth or fifth inning of the business cycle," according to David Rosenberg, who predicts growth in consumer and capital spending - and positive returns for U.S. equities.

2014-03-04 00:00:00 Market Update by of Castleton Partners

With the Ukrainian situation very much in focus, Treasury rates moved mostly lower last week. The yield curve exhibited a flattening bias, as longer dated maturities registered the biggest declines. For the week, 10 year treasury yields closed at 2.65%, a drop of eight basis points from the prior week, while two year yields were unchanged at 0.32%. As Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised lower to 2.5% from 3.2%, we also learned last week that the economy expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of 2013 than previously estimated, giving the expansion less momentum heading into 2014.

2014-03-03 00:00:00 The Long Road Back by Scott Brown of Raymond James

Five years ago, the economy appeared to be in freefall. Monetary policy and fiscal stimulus helped to halt the downslide, but a full economic recovery was still expected to take years. This wasn?t your father?s recession that we went through; it was your grandfather?s depression. We have made progress, but we still has very long way to go.

2014-03-03 00:00:00 Market Outlook by Scotty George of Alexander Capital

Whereas the "micro" details of ascribing corporate valuations are litigated every day through securities' trading on global bourses, there is very little "macro" disagreement that we are at a critical global inflection where recovery and purchasing power either expand or remain less than satisfactory. If it doesn't happen now, after all the intervention, debate, austerity and fiscal changes, it is not likely to take root at all.

2014-03-03 00:00:00 Equities Rise Despite Mixed Fundamental News by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities increased 1.3% last week as the S&P surpassed the key 1850 level and pushed to new record highs. One favorable dynamic of the rally was the upside leadership from retail stocks, as earnings were largely ahead of expectations. Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested concern about softerthan-expected spending in a number of recent data releases, but the bar for adjusting the tapering process has not been lowered.

2014-02-28 00:00:00 The Stock Market's Shaky Foundation by Chris Martenson of Whitney Peak

Martenson explains the headwinds that make the long-term case for lower valuations than we've seen in previous decades. But more urgently, he lays out the litany of short-term triggers likely to result in a vicious correction in stock prices this year. In fact, for the first time in years, he believes the time to actively short equities is arriving.

2014-02-27 00:00:00 Big Wheel Keep on Turning by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Economic uncertainty from this winter soft patch will linger for months, but strong housing fundamentals should underpin a strengthening U.S. economy while low inflation augers well for stock prices.

2014-02-26 00:00:00 What Columbus Missed: Royce Rediscovers India by David Nadel of The Royce Funds

In 1492, Italian explorer Christopher Columbus set sail to discover India. He missed his mark, however, landing in America instead. The rest, as they say, is history-with the exception that more than 500 years later India is still worthy of discovery for many Western investors.

2014-02-26 00:00:00 Market Perspective by CCR Wealth Management Investment Committee of CCR Wealth Management

It cost $0.32 to mail a letter, unemployment was 4.9%, O.J. Simpson was found liable in a civil suit, Hong Kong was returned to Chinese rule, Timothy McVeigh was sentenced to Death, Green Bay defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Titanic came crashing into movie theatres, and Dolly, the first genetically engineered lamb was unveiled to the public; the year was 1997.

2014-02-26 00:00:00 Gaps, Not Growth by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

Monetary policy is primarily about "gaps" not growth: the Fed is trying to reduce spare capacity in the economy, not bring about a rapid expansion per se.

2014-02-25 00:00:00 Time to Worry About Europe Again? by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

The European sovereign debt crisis has all but faded from investors? minds since ECB President Mario Draghi?s famous pronouncement on July 26, 2012 that he would do ?whatever it takes? to save the monetary union. Since that time, equity markets in Europe rallied sharply as accumulated risk aversion fell away.

2014-02-25 00:00:00 U.S. Economy: Curb Your Enthusiasm by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Amid optimistic projections of an acceleration in growth, the factors that have restrained GDP remain firmly in place.

2014-02-25 00:00:00 The Return of Japan by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Two weeks ago, we discussed Germany?s apparent early steps to return to regional power status. In this week?s report, we will examine Japan?s steady evolution to regional power status.

2014-02-24 00:00:00 Market Outlook by Scotty George of Alexander Capital

In the four and one-half year market recovery since the "Great Recession" there has been a remarkable transformation in the construction and analysis of corporate earnings. This is something that gives me pause for concern.

2014-02-24 00:00:00 Confusing Crosscurrents Result in Trendless Market by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished mixed after the shortened holiday week.1 The broad market narrative did not change, as additional disappointing economic data was largely attributed to the impact of adverse weather. Comfort that the recovery may be gaining traction was evidenced through Fed discussions and the January FOMC minutes, with consensus expectations for tapering to continue at a measured pace. Some renewed concerns about a growth slowdown in China surfaced but had little impact.

2014-02-24 00:00:00 Secular Bull Or Bear? by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management

At the January highs, the S&P 500 had gained almost 175% in just 58 months, while secondary stocks and equal-weighted market measures have gained considerably more. If it?s already over (and we don?t think it is), this cyclical bull will go down as a memorable one. But is this move the first leg of a new secular bull market? ? We think the next cyclical bear market will drive the market to levels low enough that debate will rage over the true date of the secular bear market low: was it 2009, or 201X?

2014-02-23 00:00:00 The Worst Ten-Letter Word by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

A new word is achieving ubiquity. The word has always been with us and at times has been a beacon to attract the friends of liberty and opportunity. But now I?m afraid it is beginning to be used as a justification for social and economic policies that will limit the expansion of both liberty and opportunity. The word? Inequality.

2014-02-19 00:00:00 Checking in on Earnings by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Earnings season is nearing its finale, and the latest results show plenty of reason to be bullish, but the longer-term trend remains an outstanding question for markets.

2014-02-18 00:00:00 Understanding the Controversy over Dividend-Based Investing by Geoff Considine (Article)

Should investors favor dividend-paying stocks over non-payers? A long-held investment tenet contends that they should. But in a controversy that has pitted two highly respected investment firms - New York-based Tweedy Browne and Texas-based Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) - against one another, advisors are being asked to reexamine this issue.

2014-02-18 00:00:00 From Micro-Caps to Mid-Caps, a Comprehensive Approach to Smaller Companies by Team of The Royce Funds

As the small-cap asset class has grown in size, those companies just beyond the periphery of small-cap have become somewhat orphaned.

2014-02-18 00:00:00 A Time for Optimism in Europe? by Philippe Brugere-Trelat of Franklin Templeton

Volatile markets and an uneven recovery may appear to justify a cautious outlook for investing in Europe right now, while in the US the specter of higher interest rates might also be signaling a challenging market environment ahead. Philippe Brugere-Trelat believes the investment case for European equities favors a more optimistic outlook and despite a bumpy start to the year for equities globally, he still sees the market as rife with potential opportunities for selective investors, particularly undervalued segments of the market. One place where he thinks caution is likely warranted? Japan.

2014-02-18 00:00:00 Global Growth Expectations Push Stocks Forward Despite Weather by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished sharply higher last week with the S&P 500 increasing 2.3% and all major U.S. averages up more than 2%.1 The rapid market recovery from the January pullback is a bigger surprise than the pullback that preceded it.

2014-02-14 00:00:00 Weather Related? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

The recent slowdown in economic data appears to be largely weather related and we believe decent growth will reassert itself. Stocks have bounced after a weak start to the year, but the threat of a further pullback remains, although our longer-term optimism has not been dented. Likewise, we believe Europe offers some attractive investment opportunities but were in a wait-and-see mode with Japan. Finally, we dont see EM turmoil becoming overly contagious, but we are watching that situation closely.

2014-02-13 00:00:00 Bad News is Good News Again by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Extremely cold weather in the United States, a sell-off in equities and in emerging markets, and large swings in fund flows combined for a volatile start to the year. But none of this will derail the ongoing U.S. economic expansion, and investors should take advantage of this temporary weakness.

2014-02-13 00:00:00 A Time for Optimism in Europe? by Philippe Brugere-Trelat of Franklin Templeton

Volatile markets and an uneven recovery may appear to justify a cautious outlook for investing in Europe right now, while in the US the specter of higher interest rates might also be signaling a challenging market environment ahead. The investment case for European equities favors a more optimistic outlook and despite a bumpy start to the year for equities globally, he still sees the market as rife with potential opportunities for selective investors, particularly undervalued segments of the market. One place where caution is likely warranted? Japan.

2014-02-12 00:00:00 Was the labor report positive, or negative, anyone? by Chris Maxey and Ryan Davis  of Fortigent

Stocks were modestly positive last week following three straight weeks of negative performance. Markets crawled back following an ugly Monday in which the S&P 500 suffered its worst loss in more than seven months. For the week, the S&P rose 0.9% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.7%.

2014-02-12 00:00:00 The Expanding Leveraged Loan Market by Heather Rupp of AdvisorShares

At the end of the day, a loan investor may be left with a security that has a low starting yield, little left in the way of capital gains potential, and with coupon income that is not at all increasing even if rates were to rise. While there are some selective opportunities for value in the loan space, broadly speaking we see high yield bonds as a more attractive market in the current environment.

2014-02-12 00:00:00 Grey Owl Capital?s Third Quarter Letter by of Grey Owl Capital Management

2013 was a banner year for the US stock market. Despite equities? meager fourteen-year record of accomplishment, investors, broadly speaking, are limited to short-term memory. Last year?s performance was enough to generate significant enthusiasm for stocks. We continue to believe, the current environment warrants a more balanced approach.

2014-02-11 00:00:00 The 2013 Commentary Scorecard by Jill Mislinski (Article)

Let’s look at what prominent forecasters said in January 2013 about how the markets and economy would perform last year.

2014-02-11 00:00:00 Equities Markets Start 2014 in Deep Freeze by Douglas Coté of ING Investement Management

By slowly normalizing policy, the Fed is passing the responsibility of pricing risk back to the markets, resulting in higher volatility. The health of the emerging markets is vital to global growth, as developing countries have doubled their contribution to global GDP over the past decade to nearly 40%. S&P 500 corporations derive half their revenue from overseas; support from global consumerism and manufacturing is on track to continue. Broad global diversification across equity and fixed income markets is the best way to protect against volatility.

2014-02-10 00:00:00 Market Outlook by Scotty C. George of Alexander Capital

Despite the inverted gyrations of the stock market during the past three weeks, my market overview continues to be moderately bullish, of course with specific reservations about investors unbridled carryover of unrealistic expectations borne out of last years performance.

2014-02-09 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview - December 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

The global economic outlook has turned brighter as several major economies are improving. Both business and consumer sentiment have become healthier across most regions, as the policy uncertainties that plagued several countries last year have faded. The U.S. economy is expected to accelerate further in 2014, while Europe and Japan are also likely to see faster growth.

2014-02-07 00:00:00 2013 Year-End Investment Commentary by Team of Litman Gregory

We find ourselves with a more sanguine big-picture view, at least over the nearer term, than we have had in some time. U.S. and global economic fundamentals gradually improved over the past year across a number of dimensions, and seem poised for continued improvement or at least stability in 2014. However, as we look ahead, the longer-term risks related to excessive global debt, subpar growth, and unprecedented government policy that we have worried about since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis still remain largely unresolved.

2014-02-07 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - 4Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

The club of emerging European economies expanded, as Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) moved Greece from developed to the status of an emerging economy. The majority of the countries covered in this review, including the new entrant, had something to look up to in the New Year.

2014-02-07 00:00:00 Over-Stimulated, Over-Priced by Neeraj Chaudhary of Euro Pacific Capital

At the end of 2013 Wall Street appeared to be convinced that the markets were enjoying the best of all possible worlds. In an interview with CNBC on Dec. 31 famed finance professor Jeremy Siegel stated that stocks would build on the great gains of 2013 with an additional 27% increase this year. So far 2014 hasnt gone according to script. In contrast to the prevailing optimism I maintain a high degree of skepticism regarding the current rally in U.S. stocks. But opinions are cheap. To back up my gut feeling, here are six very diverse indicators that suggest U.S. stocks are overvalued.

2014-02-07 00:00:00 What's the Game Changer for Gold? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

What will break gold of its losing streak? Will inflation, which is a lagging indicator, be stronger than expected? In one of my most popular posts last year, I said that based on the jobs market, the limited housing recovery and regulations slowing down the flow of money, the Fed would have no choice but to start tapering and raising rates very gradually to keep stimulating the economy.

2014-02-06 00:00:00 Emerging Market Woes abd Fed Tapering Equals Stocks Plunge by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

January saw US stocks record their first losing month since last August. After reaching new record highs at the end of December, the Dow Jones shed almost 1,000 points in the last half of the month and the decline continues. Analysts attributed the sell-off in large part due to troubling news from several emerging nations, in particular to the so-called "Fragile Five" - Turkey, India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.

2014-02-06 00:00:00 So Cruel: Pullback Could Become Correction by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

For now, the EM tail is wagging the dog, but the US remains the worlds big dog and should ultimately get through the latest turmoil. "January Barometer" has sent mixed signals for the remainder of the year historically. More technical and sentiment recovery is likely needed before a market recovery is likely.

2014-02-06 00:00:00 Beyond the Mall: Why Consumers Matter by Ted Baszler of Heartland Advisors

The bottom line is, more people are working now than were a few years ago, pumping income into the economy. At the same time that employment and real wages have been staging a moderate comeback, the housing market has continued to hold firm, and equity markets have posted impressive returns. Record-high levels of personal net worth have prompted more discretionary spending. Periods of greater spending also are associated with higher levels of equity ownership, which can push P/Es higher.

2014-02-05 00:00:00 This Just In: The Secular Bear Market May Be About to Resume. by Martin Pring of Pring Turner Capital Group

In our 2012 book, Investing in the Second Lost Decade we laid out the case for the secular bear market in equities lasting at least through the end of the decade. Since then prices of most averages have moved to all-time highs. Its time to throw in the towel on the secular bear market for stocks...right?

2014-02-05 00:00:00 Most 'Medieval' by William Gross of PIMCO

Unlike today, when most believe that animals were put on this Earth for humanitys pleasure or utility, most people in the Middle Ages believed that God granted free will to Adam, Eve and all of His creatures. Animals were responsible in some strange way for their own actions and therefore should be held accountable for them.

2014-02-04 00:00:00 James Montier - What Worries Me Right Now by Robert Huebscher (Article)

GMO’s investment strategist James Montier discusses why corporate profits will revert to the mean, what investors should know about the controversy over CAPE valuations, and the one issue that is the "preeminent occupation" of his mind right now.

2014-02-04 00:00:00 Chinas Problems are Americas Opportunity by Justin Kermond (Article)

Fear not Federal Reserve tapering, lackluster U.S. earnings, oncoming deflation or markets heading into bubble territory, says Francois Trahan. Our economic and market growth will be fueled by structural changes driven by rebalancing in China. Dont be surprised to see a repeat of 2013s U.S. equity market performance, according to Trahan, who offered a script for countering clients unfounded fears over what might go wrong.

2014-02-04 00:00:00 Investors Should Focus on Wages, Not Jobs by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

This Friday investors receive the first official labor market report of 2014. Following a highly disappointing jobs figure in December, many market participants hope to see a rebound - particularly one that will help justify the Feds decision last week to continue tapering its asset purchases.

2014-02-04 00:00:00 Crisis in Ukraine by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Since November, Ukraine has experienced widespread civil unrest. In late November, Ukrainian President Yanukovych decided not to join an EU-sponsored trade pact. This led to protests from Ukrainians who desired closer relations with Europe. In this report, we will begin by discussing the geopolitics of the nations involved, examining how nations have adjusted their policies over time to changing conditions. We will analyze the risks to the region from current unrest, including a look at the impact on emerging markets. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

2014-02-03 00:00:00 Market Outlook by Scotty George of Alexander Capital

Despite the inverted gyrations of the stock market during the past three weeks, my market overview continues to be moderately bullish, of course with specific reservations about investors unbridled carryover of unrealistic expectations borne out of last years performance.

2014-02-03 00:00:00 NY Fed Models Forecasting Excess Returns Through 2018 by John Bougearel of Structural Logic CTA

The NY Federal Reserve has an equity research department. Their research department determined in 2013 that "stocks are cheap" and that investors should enjoy "excess high returns" in an abnormally low or negative real interest rate environment for the next five years through 2018. Before reviewing potential mean reversions, implications from the Year of the Horse, & George Lindsays bearish Three Peaks and Domed House model, lets attempt to quantify the NY Fed models. How high the Dow Jones might climb if it is to enjoy "excess high returns" through 2018.

2014-02-03 00:00:00 A Secular Bull Market? by Juliet Ellis of Invesco Blog

Five years from now, I believe we will look back and see that 2014 was part of the early stages of a multi-year secular bull market for US equities, characterized by rising stock prices with only short, intervening market corrections.

2014-01-31 00:00:00 Thrift, Thrift, Burning Bright by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms of ING Investment Management

Does the title sound familiar? Think feral instead of frugal, and William Blakes "Tyger, Tyger, burning bright" may start to flicker between the synapses of memory and an English lit class you once soldiered through. But even if you havent read "The Tyger", its theme is aptly captured in the opening line and its image of a big flaming kitty cat. Essentially, Blake saw reality in duality: To appreciate the ferocious feline in all its glory is to come face to face with the same force that created "The Lamb", another entry in the poets Songs of Innocence and of Experience.

2014-01-31 00:00:00 A Surprising Gift for Chinese New Year by Sherwood Zhang of Matthews Asia

Beijing-based China Credit Trust Company, a firm that operates as a non-banking financial institution in China, announced this week it reached an agreement to restructure a risky high-yield product that had earlier ignited worries over the health of Chinas trust industry. Just in time for the Lunar New Year, investors in the troubled trust may receive a big (metaphorical) red envelope-a monetary gift traditionally given during Chinese New Year or other special occasions-or at least avoid a financial hit.

2014-01-31 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Chinas shadow banking products are coming under the spotlight. Emerging markets: Be sure to differentiate. The fixed income sectors surprising strength.

2014-01-31 00:00:00 Value-Hunting in the US by Cindy Sweeting of Franklin Templeton

With key stock indices in the US closing the year near historical highs and many pundits predicting stronger growth rates both in the US and globally going into 2014, one would think bargains would be hard to find this year. Januarys volatility, however, proved just how unpredictable markets can be. The recent market gyrations may be somewhat painful for many investors in the short-term, but the silver lining is that corrections can serve up buying opportunities, particularly for long-term, value-oriented investors.

2014-01-30 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook - Fourth Quarter 2013 by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

In The Theory of Interest, Irving Fisher, who Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman called Americas greatest economist, created the Fisher equation, which states the nominal bond yield is equal to the real yield plus expected inflation. It serves as the pillar of macroeconomics and as the foundational relationship of the bond market. It has been reconfirmed many times by scholarly examination and by the sheer force of historical experience. Examining periods of both low and high inflation offers insight into how each variable in the Fisher equation affects the outcome.

2014-01-30 00:00:00 A Healthy Correction in Emerging Markets by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

It has been a hard start to the year, especially for emerging markets, but the latest dislocation is a healthy part of the cycle and the risk-on trade remains intact.

2014-01-30 00:00:00 High Yield in 2014: Where Can You Look for Upside in a 'Medium Yield' Market? by Andrew Jessop, Hozef Arif of PIMCO

Default rates and credit losses in high yield markets remain below their long-term averages, and we believe default rates will remain low in 2014 and 2015 as well. Investors should consider positioning for better convexity via exposure to sectors with favorable industry dynamics and positive event risk from M&A or equity offerings, potential upside from price recovery in high quality bonds trading below par and exposure to select new supply from former investment grade companies.

2014-01-29 00:00:00 Do China Insider Transactions Lie? by William Smead of Smead Capital Management

In our business, we like to say that insider transactions never lie. For this reason, one of our eight criteria for selecting common stocks is strong insider ownership, preferably with recent purchases. Additionally, as contrarians, we want to make our original purchases in a business at a time when most investors are scared to buy for one reason or another. When we see officers, directors and substantial existing shareholders of a business buying at prices which are temporarily depressed, we raise our confidence in the long-term future of a business.

2014-01-29 00:00:00 How the Pioneer of Hydraulic Fracturing changed the MLP Landscape by David Chiaro of Eagle Global Advisors

A banner year for MLPs and the future looks bright.

2014-01-29 00:00:00 All Things in Moderation, Including Housing by Ed Devlin of PIMCO

In our view, the cooling housing market and other domestic factors will keep Canadian growth at a modest 1.75%-2.25% in 2014, despite a boost from higher U.S. growth. While we expect a correction in Canadas housing market to begin this year, the macroeconomic environment and the availability of mortgage credit suggest a housing crash is unlikely. In this environment, we think the Canadian dollar should remain attractive, 10-year bonds should offer the potential for gains, and provincial bonds will likely outperform federal government and corporate bonds.

2014-01-29 00:00:00 A Few Concerns by Scott Brown of Raymond James

Weve begun 2014 with widespread expectations that economic growth will pick up. Growth last year was restrained by tighter fiscal policy. With that out of the way and the housing sector recovering, the pace of expansion is poised to improve. However, there are a number of concerns. Weak growth in real wages may limit consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of Gross Domestic Product. Long-term interest rates could rise too rapidly, choking off the recovery in the housing sector. A continued low trend in inflation, a major concern for some Fed officials, could weaken growth.

2014-01-29 00:00:00 Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - 4Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates weak growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region mainly due to heightened political instability. Whats more, after years of healthy performance, growth in the oil exporting nations is expected to lose pace due to lower international demand and local oil supply disruptions. Given that these countries are witnessing a population boom, the IMF emphasized the need for economic diversification by the oil exporters and job creation in private non-oil sectors.

2014-01-28 00:00:00 Expect Higher Volatility to Persist by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock Investment Management

Last weeks selloff can be attributed to EM turmoil, stretched valuations and mediocre earnings. Volatility is likely to move higher to levels closer to long-term averages. We suggest investors adopt overweight positions in European and Japanese stocks.

2014-01-27 00:00:00 Broadleaf's 2014 Investment Playbook by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover, Mike Czekaj of Broadleaf Partners

Most sell side firms publish their outlook for the economy and stock market at the end of December and in early January. As a buy side firm, we really arent under any expectation to share our outlook for the coming year and, as funny as it might sound, some of our clients dont even care to know what we think, only that we handle what they hired us to do, which is to outperform the market indices over a full market cycle and help them attain their financial goals over time.

2014-01-25 00:00:00 Why the Recent Lift in Junior Miners Will Likely Continue by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Junior venture companies in Canada are finally seeing a significant lift. In early January, the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index rose above the 200-day moving average for the first time in three years. The index is also very close to experiencing a golden cross, which is when the shorter-term 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Historically, traders see this cross as extremely bullish.

2014-01-25 00:00:00 Five Things To Ponder: Valuations, Triggers & Inequality by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

I was thinking about valuations, profits and what could cause a real correction in the markets. That is the premise behind todays "Things To Ponder" for your weekend homework.

2014-01-25 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

So while the Fed was the first to implement nontraditional monetary strategies, the BoE may be the first to unwind them. And it may be the first to test the power of macroprudential policy. The results might make for an interesting export back across the Atlantic.

2014-01-25 00:00:00 At Davos, Inequality and Africa in Focus by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The focus at Davos has shifted to two new topics: growing income inequality as a risk to economic growth and social stability and the emergence of Africa as an economic force. Neither of these is a big surprise as neither is new. But the fact that these are the primary focus this year tells us that these topics will likely become more prominent in 2014.

2014-01-24 00:00:00 The Week by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Arguably, the best magazine of recent times has been The Week, a publication that embraces magazine journalism in its most functional style. The Week is written in one-hundred synopses culled, for the most part, from other news organizations from around the world on all topics. If I had but one publication to read in order to stay informed on just about everything, it would be The Week. In this mornings missive, however, I am referring to "the week" I experienced last week in South Florida.

2014-01-23 00:00:00 Can Equities Continue Their Rise? Equity Investment Outlook: January 2014 by Matt Berler, John Osterweis of Osterweis Capital Management

2013 marked the fifth year of recovery following the near-death experience of the 2008 global financial system meltdown. From a low of 677 in 2009, the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) finished 2013 at 1,848, delivering a stunning 203% total return from the low. Over the same period, the total return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 188%. The tech-heavy and arguably more speculative NASDAQ logged a 249% total return. These very large equity returns reflect both a strong recovery in corporate profits and a dramatic clean-up of our financial system.

2014-01-22 00:00:00 Crosscurrents Buffet Markets by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equity performance was mixed last week, as the S&P 500 recovered from Mondays sell-off that was the largest one-day decline since early November. Economic data was mostly in line or slightly better than expected, following the disappointing December unemployment report. Corporate earnings drove much of the price action. Bank earnings were fairly well received but did not always translate to good performance since the stocks ran up earlier. Negative guidance trends remain an overhang, particularly for retail.

2014-01-22 00:00:00 Market Outlook by Scotty George of Alexander Capital

One of the most common themes we hear from political pundits and market observers these days is about either the demise or rise of the middle class, an amorphous, non-homogeneous group of people not quite rich but also not too poor. This class is often cited as the reason either to be for or against legislation, fiscal policy, social norms, or the price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump!

2014-01-22 00:00:00 4 Simple Truths About US Consumers by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

The December employment report called into question the momentum of the jobs recovery, which has clear implications for consumers. While further clarity on jobs is needed, here are some key observations that help frame the consumer-sentiment discussion.

2014-01-22 00:00:00 Market Share: The Next Secular Investment Theme by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors

It is well known that corporate profit margins are at record highs. US margings, developed market margings, and even emerging market margins are generally either at or close to record highs. A myopic focus on profit margins may miss an important investment consideration. Whereas most investors remain fearful of margin compression, we prefer to search for an investment theme that could emerge if margins do indeed compress. Accordingly, our investment focus has shifted toward themes based on companies who might gain market share.

2014-01-21 00:00:00 Are Small Businesses the Engine of Job Growth? by Marianne Brunet (Article)

What do George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama have in common (besides a conviction that the camera loves them)? They have all promoted the notion that small businesses are the engine of America’s economic growth. But new research shows that the role of small businesses has been overstated.

2014-01-21 00:00:00 Superstition Ain't the Way by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

When you believe in things that you dont understand, then you suffer.

2014-01-21 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

With a few more days to digest the labor data, investors began the week on another sour note, but a sense of normalcy returned on some other better-than-expected releases. Still, the Feds stimulus remains atop the headlines as speculation runs amuck about how the tapering will play out. Earnings season pushes ahead and, thus far, the results are lackluster at best. Dont forget, as January goes...

2014-01-17 00:00:00 What Does It Take to Be in the Top 1 Percent? Not As Much As You Think by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

You might be surprised to learn that the top 20 percent of income earners bring in a household income of just over $100,000. The top 10 percent of earners have a household income of more than $148,687. To be considered in the top 1 percent, household income is at least $521,411.

2014-01-15 00:00:00 Fed Tapering -- Shades of 1937? by Paul Kasriel of Econtrarian, LLC

In the press conference immediately following the December 17-18, 2013 FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that it was the FOMCs current plan to have terminated Federal Reserve outright securities purchases by the end of 2014, commencing with a $10 billion reduction in securities purchases immediately after the December 2013 FOMC meeting and then continuing to taper its purchases by about $10 billion after each 2014 FOMC meeting. Of course, this tapering plan is subject to modification in either direction depending on forthcoming economic and financial market developments.

2014-01-14 00:00:00 The Great Man or the Great Wave by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

One of the seminal debates among historians is how the process of history develops, characterized as the "great man versus the great wave" debate. In this report, we will begin by developing this debate with relation to Americas superpower role; specifically, we will examine whether the U.S. is struggling with the superpower role because of a lack of leadership (a great man position) or because the wave of history is aligned against the U.S. keeping that role. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

2014-01-14 00:00:00 Merk 2014 Dollar, Currency & Gold Outlook by Axel Merk of Merk Investments

Rarely has the future been so clear. Really?? A lot of money has been lost jumping on the bandwagon. Lets do a common sense check on the greenback to gauge where risks might be lurking and where there might be profit opportunities for investors.

2014-01-14 00:00:00 Market Outlook by Scotty George of Alexander Capital

The stock markets valuation expansion has left a bittersweet taste in the mouths of some who believe that this historic sequence of "new highs" is simply smoke and mirrors and accelerated expectations. Indeed, while the wealth effect is improving the lot of many, it is also exacerbating the gap between "reality" and "perceived-reality".

2014-01-13 00:00:00 Hovering With an Anvil by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

In my view, the stock market is hovering in what has a good chance of being seen in hindsight as the complacent lull before a period of steep losses. Meanwhile, we would require a certain amount of deterioration in stock prices, credit spreads, and employment growth to amplify our economic concerns, but even here we can say that there is little evidence of economic acceleration. Broad economic activity continues to hover at levels that have historically delineated the border of expansions and recessions.

2014-01-10 00:00:00 5 Investor Tips for 2014 by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

While the winding down of QE signals better times ahead, investors need to be selective and focused in taking smart risks, says US Investment Strategist Kristina Hooper.

2014-01-10 00:00:00 High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook- January 2014 by Team of Guggenheim Partners

Improving U.S. macroeconomic conditions should spur additional investor demand for high-yield bonds and bank loans, particularly with defaults exceptionally low. Still, investors should monitor trends pointing to an erosion of safety in leveraged credit.

2014-01-10 00:00:00 2014 Economic and Investment Outlook by Team of Ivy Investment Management Company

Although the December 2013 U.S. budget pact between House and Senate negotiators was a welcome development, partisan battles over government spending still are possible in 2014. The agreement ends a three-year budget fight and sets government spending through fall 2015, but it does not eliminate the need to raise the nations borrowing limit - the "debt ceiling."

2014-01-10 00:00:00 Macro Strategy Review by Jim Welsh of Forward Investing

Heavy emphasis on the fundamentals factors driving the U.S., European Union, China, and Emerging economies, and how the fundamentals are likely to impact markets.

2014-01-09 00:00:00 The U.S. Begins an (Un)employment Experiment by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments

Extended unemployment benefits stopped for 1.3 million people at year-end. This doesnt change their employment status...they just stop getting unemployment compensation. Extended benefits (of up to 99 weeks) was part of the recession-fighting fiscal stimulus package. A question was: did this create a dis-incentive to find a job (aka "funemployment").

2014-01-09 00:00:00 A Great Time for Investors by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Last January, the global economy faced myriad headwinds, choppiness lay ahead, and we expected plenty of volatility. Nevertheless, I said then that risk assets were the best choice for investors. Now, the headwinds of 2013 have largely dissipated, and the outlook is benign for risk assets for the first three to six months of 2014, if not longer.

2014-01-09 00:00:00 The Price Action of Stocks Trumps Fundamentals by Robert Mark of Castle Investment Management

Perhaps the best argument that one can make for stocks is that many hold doubts about the continuing bull market. The reasons for these doubts are understandable, as the economic recovery has been anemic and growth has slowed significantly - likely leading to lower profits in the future. As a result, corporations have aggressively cut costs, increased productivity and preserved cash - pushing profit margins to historically high levels.

2014-01-08 00:00:00 Ready For Lift-Off? by Scott Brown of Raymond James

While some had expected a quick recovery from the recession, that was never likely to be the case. Recessions that are caused by financial crises are different from the usual downturns - they are more severe, they last longer, and the recoveries take a long time. The economy has been in recovery mode for the last four and a half years, but finally appears to be poised for an acceleration in 2014.

2014-01-07 00:00:00 Is 2014 the Year That Alternatives Matter Again? by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

In the wake of the financial crisis of 2008, investors piled into alternative investments en masse to help insulate their portfolios from another dramatic market decline. For those who had not yet bought into the idea of improving portfolio risk-adjusted returns, the 50% drawdown in the S&P 500 provided all the convincing needed.

2014-01-07 00:00:00 Turn the Page: Outlook for Economy/Stocks in 2014 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

In this comprehensive (read: long...sorry!) 2014 outlook report, we assess the likelihood a correction is in the offing given the strong gains since 2009.

2014-01-06 00:00:00 Confidence Abounds by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Its the very nature of a peak that it cant be produced except by unusual optimism.

2014-01-06 00:00:00 Reflections on 2013: What's Important, What's Not, and What's Ahead by Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management

A tale of 2 halves with lingering questions characterizes what we can say was the story for housing for 2013. In the first half of the year, rates were low as the 10 year note was well under 2%. People were still refinancing, as home prices rocketed. Multiple bids were common, and pundits like Ivy Zelman cheered the improving market with praise like "Housing is in Nirvana".

2014-01-06 00:00:00 How High Can US Stocks Go this Year? by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Russ explains why last years combination of significant multiple expansion and higher interest rates suggests more muted gains for U.S. equities in 2014.

2014-01-06 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

To say that 2013 was an interesting year would be a bit of an understatement. We learned a long time ago not to make predictions about the stock market because no matter what is predicted, it is likely to be wrong. Even if we get lucky one year, we are not likely to even get close the following year. We do try to give guidance, however. Last year we suggested that, given the late run in the market in 2012 and its 15% return, investors should be happy with a return of 8 to 10% in 2013. Obviously, investors enjoyed much better returns.

2014-01-06 00:00:00 2013: A Review of the Past, the Present and the Future by Ron Surz of PPCA Inc

This commentary is divided into three sections. I begin with a review of current U.S. and foreign stock markets, examining the year 2013 and the past six years, including the crash of 2008. This perspective serves as a launch point into the future, specifically 2014 and the remainder of this decade. I conclude with a review of the past 88 years of U.S. stock and bond markets.

2014-01-03 00:00:00 Gold Stocks: What to Expect in the New Year by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

After three years of pain, can gold stocks break their losing streak and see a gain in 2014? History says chances are good.

2014-01-03 00:00:00 2014 Outlook: The Emergence of a Global Expansion by Team of Loomis Sayles

After years of a global recovery characterized by fits and starts, we expect more synchronized global growth in 2014. Global GDP growth will accelerate modestly from 2.7% in 2013 to approximately 3.4% in 2014, primarily driven by larger advanced economies. In particular, we are optimistic that US growth will be sustainable. The fading economic drag from government policy and the ongoing housing recovery should help boost US GDP growth toward 3% as the year progresses. The UK is poised for a similar rate of expansion in 2014, and Europe will likely post positive growth in the coming year.

2013-12-31 00:00:00 2014? by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Year-end letters are difficult to write because there is always a tendency to discuss the year gone by or, worse, attempt to forecast the coming year. Typically, when the media asks where the S&P 500 (SPX/1841.40) will be at the end of the new year, I tell them you might as well flip a lucky penny.

2013-12-27 00:00:00 Gary Shilling: Review and Forecast by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Its that time of year again, when we begin to think of what the next one will bring. I will be doing my annual forecast issue next week, but my friend Gary Shilling has already done his and has graciously allowed me to use a shortened version of his letter as this weeks Thoughts from the Frontline. So without any further ado, lets jump right to Garys look at where we are and where were going.

2013-12-27 00:00:00 2013: Looking Back at the Year of the Bull by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Will stocks continue to climb in 2014? Odds are "very good," finds BCA Research. According to historical data going back to 1870, there were 30 times when annual returns in domestic stocks climbed more than 25 percent. Of these, 23 experienced an additional increase, resulting in a mean of 12 percent, says BCA. Thinking back to January 2013, investors had a very different frame of mind. While we recently talked about the year?s biggest stories in U.S. energy and gold, today, we recap our popular commentaries focused on the domestic market.

2013-12-26 00:00:00 Does the CAPE Still Work? by William Hester of Hussman Funds

We feel no particular obligation defend the CAPE ratio. It has a strong long-term relationship to subsequent 10-year market returns. And its only one of numerous valuation indicators that we use in our work - many which are considerably more reliable.

2013-12-24 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

vestors thanked Bernanke this week for what they perceived as an early holiday present. While no one knew how they would react once the Fed began to taper its bond purchases, many surprised analysts by lifting stocks to one of the best showings of the year (and a new record on the Dow). And now that that uncertainty is out of the way, let the vacations begin.

2013-12-24 00:00:00 Bernanke's Santa Claus Cheer by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

What will Santa bring for Christmas...does he exist at all? Yes he does, his name is Bernanke and he has a stock market rally to share and good holiday cheer for all!

2013-12-23 00:00:00 China's Consumer Stocks: Opportunities Despite Slower Growth by Richard Flax of PIMCO

A weaker macro environment and curbs on spending by government bureaucrats have hit a range of consumer businesses and, in some cases, forced a reassessment of expansion plans. While Chinese consumption may be challenged in the near term, we think the impact will be felt most in the retail sector where slowing demand is compounded by oversupply. We see opportunity in other sectors that benefit from secular demand growth and constrained supply or strong brands, notably casinos and luxury sectors.

2013-12-20 00:00:00 Staying Power by Kapish Bhutani of Diamond Hill Investments

In addition to reducing the risk of a permanent loss of capital, the staying power of a company allows for capital to compound over long periods of time. While the defensive and less cyclical nature of many consumer staples companies indicates an ability to survive, most are able to invest only a portion of earnings at historical rates of return.

2013-12-20 00:00:00 A Surprising Way to Participate in Today's Tech Boom by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

China has become one of the best consumption stories out there, and looking over the next few years, local technology companies are almost certain to benefit. So while many U.S. investors are getting excited about the growing number of initial public offerings in the tech sector, they would be remiss if they didnt look beyond Silicon Valley.

2013-12-20 00:00:00 The Mundane Truth Behind Margins by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management

The margin expansion story of the last 20 years is a financial one, not an operating one. Investors routinely attribute todays near-record margins to operating efficiencies like factory automation and the outsourcing of labor to lower-wage foreign locales. This is certainly an attractive story, but the reality is that competition demands these actions, and many more, to merely maintain margins. We dont understand why economists who seem to be perfectly good capitalists in every other way think these innovations should result in a permanent jump in profitability.

2013-12-19 00:00:00 Market's Fed Frenzy Can Finally End by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The Fed surprised many investors by announcing it will taper in January, but made clear that interest rates will remain near the zero-bound as forward guidance becomes its primary policy tool.

2013-12-17 00:00:00 The 2014 Geopolitical Outlook by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international situation in the upcoming year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the "big picture" conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.

2013-12-16 00:00:00 The World We Live In by Michael Kayes of Willingdon Wealth Management

For me, the final month of the year has always been a time to reflect upon the past as well as plan for the future. Analyzing the year soon to pass provides a valuable perspective with which to evaluate the important issues that will impact our country and economy going forward. In this context, 2013 sure has been a memorable year highlighted by horrific natural disasters, the deaths of Margaret Thatcher and Nelson Mandela, and on the lighter side, the unforgettable ending to perhaps the greatest Iron Bowl ever played.

2013-12-16 00:00:00 Absolute Return Letter: Squeaky Bum Time by Niels Jensen, Nick Rees, Tricia Ward of Absolute Return Partners

QE has led to asset price inflation. That much we established in the November Absolute Return Letter. In this months letter we go one step further and look at whether we are now in bubble territory. Considering the strong bull-run we have experienced in 2012-13 it is perhaps surprising to learn that, in a historical context, it is not an outsized rally, nor are equity markets - with the possible exception of the United States - particularly expensive.

2013-12-16 00:00:00 The Power of the Platform: The Promise and Peril of Technology Investing by Ryan Jacob of Jacob Asset Management

Without question, technologys rapid development during the past 20 years has played an incredibly powerful and largely positive role in furthering the progress and productivity of modern economies throughout the world. Technologys track record as a profitable investment theme, however, is a bit cloudier.

2013-12-16 00:00:00 2014 Investment Outlook: Economic Growth Should Broaden by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

For the first time in several years, we approach the new year without big clouds on the horizon. In the United States, accommodative monetary policy has healed many of the wounds from the 2008-2009 crisis.

2013-12-13 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

No one deserved a break more than investment guys/gals (except maybe politicos). Unfortunately, Thanksgiving holiday was too "short and sweet" for many and the economic week that followed was crazy. Number after number depicted an economy on solid ground with strong confirmation from the late-week labor releases. Investors took profits throughout much of the week as the final month of the year began, but the Bulls were back in force to conclude the week.

2013-12-12 00:00:00 The Fed, Inflation, and the Perfect Storm in Gold Miners by Clyde Kendzierski of Financial Solutions Group

Neither hopes of job creation nor fears of inflation (based on the massive expansion of the monetary base since late 2008) have thus far materialized. Total credit creation (i.e. money supply) during most of the last five years either shrank or barely grew despite massive growth in the monetary base. Nominal GDP (growth plus inflation) grows in response to total expansion of credit (both from the Fed and the banking system), not just the monetary base.

2013-12-12 00:00:00 All News is Good News by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Financial markets have been discounting the end of tapering for months, and whether it happens in December or March is less important than the reality that the U.S. economy is recovering amid a global synchronous expansion.

2013-12-11 00:00:00 The Fed is Playing Hamlet to the Markets by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments

To taper or not to taper-that is the question the Fed is asking itself. Whats moving the market is (it appears) the odds of Fed action. For the first half of last week, "good news was bad news" as stock and bond markets apparently interpreted better economic data as suggesting an earlier QE (Quantitative Easing) Taper. On Friday, the market apparently decided the jobs report was good enough to further reduce downside risks to the economy but not strong enough to spur the Fed to action.

2013-12-11 00:00:00 Q3:2013 Flow-of-Funds Report - 'Tis the Season to Be Jolly by Paul Kasriel of Econtrarian, LLC

I know that being a Debbie Downer gets more face time on cable news, but after looking at the Feds latest Financial Accounts of the U.S. report, formerly known as the Flow-of-Funds report, I cannot contain my optimism about the economys prospects in the New Year.

2013-12-10 00:00:00 Macro Factors Distract Wealth Creation by Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management

What do Obamacare, Federal Government debt/budget deals, Quantitative Easing and jobs data have in common? To us they are all types of macroeconomic factors on which most investors focus. We believe the reason most investors focus on these types of news stories is because they can influence the US stock market over the next six to twelve months instead of the next 10 to 20 years. In this missive, we would like to challenge everyones thinking about their ultimate goal for investing in the stock market and the behaviors which lead to wealth creation.

2013-12-09 00:00:00 Fed Creating More Financial Market Uncertainty by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

Although the U.S. stock market continues to hit new nominal highs on a nearly daily basis, the U.S. economy bumps along at a lackluster pace. This disconnect has been achieved by a massive Fed experiment in monetary stimulation.

2013-12-09 00:00:00 Gauging Tapering Post November Jobs Report by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

With another month down in 2013, last week came time to dissect the latest report on employment. If the market reaction was indicative, the highly anticipated November labor report did not disappoint, sending stocks up more than 1% on Friday.

2013-12-06 00:00:00 Did the Government Shutdown Help the Economy? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Take the government shutdown in October, when the House and Senate fought over the debt ceiling. Economic data wasn?t released, services were halted, national parks were closed, and "non-essential government workers were told to stay home. As a result, GDP was expected to collapse. Yet, data released this week reveal a different, stronger image of the U.S. economy. I think Shakespeare would deem the media?s fear mongering tactics as Much Ado About Nothing.

2013-12-05 00:00:00 A Synchronous Expansion by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Major developed economies are all contributing to global economic growth, and this improving fundamental picture, coupled with ongoing monetary accommodation, bode well for risk assets.

2013-12-05 00:00:00 10 for '14 by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors

Each December we publish a list of investment themes that we feel are critical for the coming year. We continue to believe the US stock market will continue its run through one of the largest bull markets of our careers. Our positive outlook extends to the following areas: US Equities, Japanese Equities, European small cap stocks, high yield municipals.

2013-12-04 00:00:00 ACA: The Importance of Being Transparent by Harlan Sonderling of Columbia Management

President James A. Garfield survived an assassins bullet in 1881, only to die several months later of complications from the infection that developed from his doctors probing his healing wound with their unclean hands and instruments, contrary to the developing understanding of the need for sanitary medical treatment. In effect, the President was a victim of his doctors inattention to or ignorance of medical best practices. As well, one cant help inferring that the Presidents doctors were among the best paid in the nation, regardless of their disastrous outco

2013-12-04 00:00:00 Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q3 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

The second half of 2013 has posed significant challenges to growth in major Emerging Asia Pacific economies. Almost all emerging Asia Pacific economies showed signs of strain arising from stubborn inflation, higher interest rates, slower consumer spending and lukewarm exports.

2013-12-04 00:00:00 Dramatically Dropping Deficits? Keep Dreaming by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

A smaller U.S. budget shortfall for fiscal 2013 will be largely due to transitory factors.

2013-12-03 00:00:00 Why Does the U.S. Have High-Cost Low-Quality Healthcare? by Michael Edesess and Kwok L. Tsui (Article)

The U.S. has worse mortality rates than virtually all other developed nations, and yet it spends twice as much per capita on health care. How on earth has the U.S. racked up such an appallingly bad health-care record, and what is the solution? A recent edition of the Journal of the American Medical Association identified many of the problems but was not persuasive in prescribing a cure.

2013-12-03 00:00:00 Philly Fed, the Geo Score and A Housing Stat Making Some Blue by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis

Following a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday that involved way too much food, I found myself doing all I could to avoid the Black Friday masses and succeeded until I took to the highway for a journey to Albany, NY - they were leaving the malls and, perhaps it was exhaustion from their day of shopping, but the traffic and driving skills left something to be desired. Those weary shoppers amassed along I-87 brought to mind the question of how healthy (or not so healthy) is the economy?

2013-12-02 00:00:00 China's Great Leap by Equity Investment Team of Janus Capital Group

Chinas government just announced it would take a big step back...and let its economy take a giant leap forward. We believe Chinas proposed economic reforms will transform the economy and should allay investors main concerns about Chinese markets. In Janus latest Equity Monthly, our equity team offers its perspective on Chinas Great Leap.

2013-11-29 00:00:00 From the Taj Mahal to Westminster Abbey: Notes from a Global Investor by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

I recently returned from India, a nation where an incredible 600 million people are under the age of 25. That?s nearly double the entire population of the U.S.

2013-11-27 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

This particular time of year is often a time of contemplation and reflection. As families and friends gather for the holidays, many pause to consider the year almost past, and perhaps the year to come. Whether its tax-lot accounting for securities bought and sold, or healthcare issues left unattended, or simply holding ourselves accountable for goals unmet, we tackle these issues as an annual right of passage each year.

2013-11-27 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

This has been another quiet week for stocks which closed at their highs for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average even closed above 16,000 for the 1st time.

2013-11-27 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary - October 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Equities Gain as Currencies Remain Stable and Data Trends Show Positive Signs.

2013-11-27 00:00:00 The Future in Focus: Our Demographic Destiny by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

In the first of a series on population trends that will shape the U.S. economy, Milton Ezrati looks at the policy challenges posed by an aging America.

2013-11-25 00:00:00 Recent Economic Trends Help Make Korea a Hidden Gem in Asia by Paul Chan and Simon Jeong of Invesco Blog

After more than two decades of financial setbacks, recent macroeconomic data is helping Korea overcome the negative economic stigma associated with its economy and equity markets.

2013-11-25 00:00:00 Equities Extend Gains for the Seventh Consecutive Week by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished higher again last week as the S&P 500 increased 0.4%. The Fed continued to dominate headlines, with heightened emphasis on the distinction between tapering and tightening. Bubble speculation continued to receive attention in the press, while many articles refuted such concerns. The financial sector performed well, led by banks.

2013-11-25 00:00:00 Permanently Depressed? by Scott Brown of Raymond James

One of the main economic debates of the last few years has been whether weakness is cyclical or structural. If the downturn is due to a temporary (albeit, severe) shortfall in domestic demand, then growth should pick up sharply at some point as the economy returns to its potential. If its structural, fiscal and monetary policy can do little to help. Opinions differ, but while the consensus may see the sluggish economy as reflecting mostly cyclical forces, cyclical weakness is more likely to become structural the longer it lasts.

2013-11-22 00:00:00 Shifting Global Fortunes by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton

Most investors, particularly those who live in developed markets, probably arent aware of the influence emerging markets have on the global economy. Im not just talking about China or just about governments. More and more large corporations are headquartered in emerging markets, a trend that I expect to continue. In addition, more of those companies that are located in emerging markets are also joining the ranks of the top companies in the world. In fact, some might be surprised to hear that some of the worlds largest initial public offerings (IPOs) have been in emerging m

2013-11-22 00:00:00 Understanding the Rise of China by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

If the sweeping economic reforms planned by Chinese leaders during the Third Plenum can be our guide, it looks to be a promising decade for global investors. Details released this week confirmed President Xi Jinpings concerted efforts to move China toward a market-based economy that mirrors the West.

2013-11-21 00:00:00 The Fed and the Economy: Don't Shoot Until You See the Whites of Their Eyes by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The Federal Reserve has started to highlight forward guidance as a way to keep interest rates lower for longer and get the exhausted hamster off the treadmill of quantitative easing. We still think tapering remains farther off than most investors expect.

2013-11-21 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Some weekly commentaries are chock full of information, editorial content, market swings, economic data, and the like. Others, like today, reveal nothing magical about the preceding week or the outlook ahead.

2013-11-21 00:00:00 Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review Q3 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Developed Asia Pacific economies were back on their feet during the second quarter of 2013 as economic growth gained momentum, inflation fell mildly and exports climbed strongly. Most developed countries in the region such as Japan, Australia, and New Zealand reported a sharp positive swing in consumer and business confidence. Predominantly expansionary monetary and fiscal policies also helped keep the pace of economic recovery.

2013-11-20 00:00:00 Entrepreneurship in Asia by Jerry Shih of Matthews Asia

Using Silicon Valley as a yardstick to measure the success of Asias entrepreneurs is an interesting exercise. But it offers little insight into the development of more creative processes in Asia. Many policymakers in the region have declared innovation to be a national, strategic prioritycreating policies aimed at spurring growth to increase R&D expenditure, attract knowledge-intensive foreign direct investment and building more skilled labor pools. This month, Jerry Shih, CFA, takes a look at what changes are occurring around Asia to build more robust start-up ecosystems.

2013-11-20 00:00:00 Setting Sail on the QE Express by Dawn Bennett of Bennett Group Financial Services

Ive been managing money for over 25 years and rarely have I seen the level of craziness and insanity in both our politics and financial markets in the U.S. Im frightened of this deepening manmade disaster thats unfolding in front of us right now in both the financial markets and the economy. Too much faith is being placed in untested theories and that quantitative easing is going to cure all of our ills.

2013-11-20 00:00:00 Yellen's Testimony Not Surprising: Fed Has More Work to Do by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments

Janet Yellens Senate testimony in last weeks confirmation hearings was very dovish and offered no real surprises. She did not signal or hint at any change in Fed policy (it was a confirmation hearing), but suggested that the best way to achieve an exit from unconventional policy is to deliver a stronger recovery . . . and the Fed has "more work to do" to support that recovery. The risk that she will not be confirmed is considered negligible.

2013-11-18 00:00:00 The Muddle-Through Economy and Grind-Higher Equity Market Continue by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished higher last week as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs, marking the sixth straight week of advances.1 Several macroeconomic themes are important as third quarter earnings season comes to an end. Fed Chairman nominee Janet Yellen spoke before the Senate in support of current monetary policy and suggested a similar path under her leadership. Economic data was mixed for the week, and any economic weakness continues to be perceived as supporting a delay in tapering. In turn, this can be seen as positive for equities.

2013-11-18 00:00:00 The ECB Rate Cut - Too Little and Too Late by John Greenwood of Invesco Blog

The decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) last week to cut its main refinancing rate from 0.5% to 0.25% and the marginal lending facility from 1.00% to 0.75% is too little and too late -- and virtually irrelevant to financial markets. The decision came after published data showed the eurozone headline consumer price index slowing to 0.7% year-on-year in October. Of course the equity markets rallied temporarily in a knee-jerk reaction to the ECBs move, but by the end of the day most of the gains were lost.

2013-11-16 00:00:00 Gliding to Year End? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Although we remain optimistic, the path to year-end may have some potholes. US stocks are among the more attractive investment options available, but there is the risk of a pullback in the near term should sentiment conditions continue to be elevated. There is also a risk of a melt-up in stocks given recent momentum. Europe is dealing with falling inflation and weak growth, although expectations are low, leaving investment opportunities somewhat attractive. Both Japan and China appear to be at a crossroads and we are watching political and monetary developments carefully.

2013-11-15 00:00:00 Has Washington Drama Taken Its Toll On MLPs? by David Chiaro of Eagle Global Advisors

They did it! They blew it up! shouts Charlton Heston in the iconic ending scene of the film Planet of the Apes when he finds out he has been living on a post-nuclear war planet Earth. Americans are probably having some of the same feelings about our current world resulting from the ongoing political nuclear war raging in our nations capital.

2013-11-15 00:00:00 Dressed to the Nines with Gold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

While paper gold is getting the cold shoulder in the West, the Love Trade buyers in the East are wrapping their arms around all the physical gold they can get their hands on.

2013-11-14 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Data keeps coming fast and furious and (for the most part) it has been favorable. Investors remain torn between being ecstatic about the solid recovery or worried about the implications for another Fed move. Stocks were mixed throughout the week with the Dow Jones staying in record territory. Is that worth a Tweet (now that its public)?

2013-11-13 00:00:00 When Flexibility Meets Opportunity in the European Commercial Real Estate Market by Laurent Luccioni of PIMCO

The pace of asset sales by European banks has been slower than many anticipated due to the fragile economic, political and regulatory environment across the continent. A complex CRE landscape and the pervasive effects of cognitive bias, capital rigidity and the unintended consequences of regulation mean mispricing can occur frequently. Unlocking value in this environment requires a flexible approach to investing across the capital structure and the resources to source, underwrite, structure, service and operate commercial real estate assets.

2013-11-12 00:00:00 Big Ideas on Gold and Resources in the Big Easy by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

For nearly four decades, curious investors have made their way to the Big Easy for a taste of New Orleans and several helpings of advice and perspective at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

2013-11-11 00:00:00 That Was the Week That Was?! by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

That Was the Week That Was, informally TWTWTW or TW3, was a satirical comedy program on BBC television in 1962 and 1963. It was devised, produced, and directed by Ned Sherrin and presented by David Frost. An American version by the same name aired on NBC from 1964 to 1965, also featuring David Frost. And last week was just such a week for me.

2013-11-10 00:00:00 What Would Yellen Do? by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

In advance of this weeks confirmation hearings for Federal Reserve Board Chairperson-nominee Janet Yellen, lets pretend we are prepping our favorite Banking Committee senator for his or her few questions. What would you like to know? In this weeks letter I offer a few questions of my own.

2013-11-08 00:00:00 U.S. Shale Oil: A Central Banker's Best Friend by Charles Wilson of Thornburg Investment Management

After nearly a decade of sustained high energy prices , U.S. oil and natural gas producers responded to the markets call for supply with newly exploitable shale resources. The fresh supply helped reduce concerns about global spare production capacity and limited upward pressure on energy prices. Central bankers around the world were able to maintain highly accommodative monetary policies for prolonged periods as a result.

2013-11-08 00:00:00 Taking Stock in the Economy by Ken Taubes of Pioneer Investments

Now is a good time to take stock in the current macro environment from a market perspective. Heres what we think could happen at the end of this year and next year.

2013-11-08 00:00:00 Big Ideas in the Big Easy by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

This is likely a contrarian view to the folks in the White House, but I think investors benefit from being contrarian and thinking differently. In preparation for my presentations in New Orleans as well as for the Metals & Minerals Investment Conference in San Francisco and the Mines and Money in London in a few weeks, I?ve been pulling together this kind of research that we can all put to use now.

2013-11-06 00:00:00 Tighter Fiscal Policy Not Helping by Scott Brown of Raymond James

We are now more than five years into the economic expansion, but to many Americans, it still feels like a recession. Many of the headwinds that restrained the recovery early on, such as housing and state and local government, have turned to modest tailwinds, and monetary policy remains highly accommodative. The biggest restraint on growth this year has been fiscal policy. There is a near-term focus on a long-term budget deal, but an agreement seems rather unlikely. Sequester spending cuts set for mid-January should be a more important consideration for lawmakers.

2013-11-05 00:00:00 Skepticism Still Abounds by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities were mixed last week as the markets were broadly unchanged. The October FOMC statement was a bit more hawkish than expected, causing concern that the recent delay in tapering may have been too aggressive. Other worries appear to be tail risks surrounding a possible Fed liquidity trap and accompanying asset bubbles. Economic data were mixed as markets struggle with the trade-offs between recovery and policy normalization.

2013-11-05 00:00:00 Ex-US Property Bubble Peaking? by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

For several years now, a common storyline on China was the immense overcapacity in the countrys housing market. A mixture of easy credit policies and officials explicit economic growth plans based on capital investment yielded construction on a massive scale across the countryside. So-called ghost towns emerged as the pace of building and the migration of rural citizens into these cities fell out of sync.

2013-11-05 00:00:00 The Saudi Tribulation by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management

In this report, we will discuss the basic history of U.S. and Saudi relations, focusing on the historical commonality of goals between the two nations. We will detail how the aims of the two nations have diverged since the Cold War ended and use this to examine Americas evolving plans for the Middle East. We will discuss how the evolution of U.S. policy is affecting Saudi Arabia and the pressures these changes are bringing to the kingdom. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

2013-11-05 00:00:00 Don't Miss This Golden Cross in Resources by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

While investors have been focusing on the strengthening U.S. market, weve also kept our eyes on other improving indicators happening in resources, Europe, and emerging markets. These places may not be as widely popular, but we believe investors can benefit greatly from taking a view thats different from the ones observed by the majority.

2013-11-04 00:00:00 Sovereign Ambitions to Develop Infrastructure Benefit Emerging Asia's Utilities Sector by Raja Mukherji, Emily Au-Yeung of PIMCO

The scope for infrastructure development in emerging Asia is tremendous, and the utilities sector has potential to contribute to and benefit from that growth. In general, we have found that state-owned utilities benefit from a range of operational advantages, partly as a result of the governments vested interest. PIMCOs bottom-up research allows us to analyze evolving company- and sector-specific factors within the greater macroeconomic picture to identify the best investment ideas in Asias utilities sector.

2013-11-04 00:00:00 Leash the Dogma by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Its fascinating to hear central bankers talk about the economy, because in the span of a few seconds they can say so many things that simply arent supported by the evidence. For anyone planning to watch the confirmation hearings for the next Fed Chair, the evidence below is provided as something of a leash to restrain the attacking dogma.

2013-11-04 00:00:00 How I Explain Amazon's Stock Performance by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs

Amazon (AMZN) is a stock that seems to defy conventional wisdom about how a stock is, or should be, valued. Fundamental investors, like yours truly, recognize and respect the importance of the earnings and price relationship. Moreover, I will be so bold as to emphatically state that in the long run profitability (earnings) will be the primary determinant of a businesses fair value, any business. However, my bold statement is predicated on the longer run. In the short run it is often a truth that all bets are off.

2013-11-04 00:00:00 What Price for Growth? by Equity Investment Team of Janus Capital Group

Cloud computing and social media are bringing a level of disruption and innovation not seen in the technology sector since the dot-com era. The troubling aspect is that valuations for many of these companies seem just as stretched as Internet stocks were back then. We think investors may be paying too much for the growth inherent in these companies.

2013-11-02 00:00:00 Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics

The froth and foam on markets of all shapes and sizes all over the world. It is an exhilarating feeling, and the pundits who populate the media outlets are bubbling over with it. There is nothing like a rising market to help lift our mood. Unless of course, as Prof. Kindleberger famously cautioned, we are not participating in that rising market. Then we feel like losers. But what if the rising market is a bubble? Are we smart enough to ride and then step aside before it bursts? Research says we all think that we are, yet we rarely demonstrate the actual ability.

2013-11-01 00:00:00 Where Do Profits Go from Here? Up. Here's Why. by Joseph Tanious, Anthony Wile of J.P. Morgan Funds

After record-setting earnings in the first two quarters of 2013, the S&P 500 is on track to hit another historic high in profits for 3Q13. If this occurs, the first three quarters of this year will have been the most profitable ever in the 56-year history of the S&P 500. Future earnings growth through margin expansion seems unlikely, as an improving labor market and higher interest rates will most likely squeeze margins. However, stable revenue growth, share buybacks and the additional use of debt financing should support modest earnings gains in the year ahead.

2013-11-01 00:00:00 Korea Raises Voice for Shareholders by Soo Chang Lee of Matthews Asia

Corporate governance practices in South Koreas family-controlled conglomerates, known as chaebol, find their roots in a social contract that was implicit in the process of the countrys economic development under military dictatorship, which began in the early 1960s. Koreas previously autocratic government initiated economic plans and wielded power in the private sector by assigning different areas of development to each of several chosen corporate families.

2013-11-01 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

The public needs to move beyond its bad feelings toward financial institutions. Should we modify the price stability mandate of central banks? The Fed offers no surprises.

2013-10-31 00:00:00 Third Quarter Letter by Team of Grey Owl Capital

Despite the recent shenanigans in Washington concerning funding the government and raising the debt ceiling, as well as the constant news coverage of the quantitative easing taper that the Federal Reserve may or may not begin, we are going to spare (at least for this quarter) both you and us another long discussion of these very real issues.

2013-10-31 00:00:00 A Rebound in Global Equities by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

With the U.S. economic expansion entering its fifth year and the global economic picture improving, it appears equities in Europe and Asia can still rise.

2013-10-31 00:00:00 Fed Outlook for the Short and Longer Run by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

One of the ironies of Ben Bernankes tenure is that he set out with a goal to improve Fed communication while in office. Immediately after his first meeting as chairman in March 2006, Bernanke set up a subcommittee tasked with facilitating debate around communication issuesincluding inflation targeting, post-meeting statements and minutes and public speeches by individual Fed officials.

2013-10-31 00:00:00 The Age of Experimentation (Global Economic Outlook for Fourth Quarter 2013) by Robert Scherfke of Hartford Funds

Macroanalyst Robert Scherfke, PhD discusses the progress global economies have made since 2008 and the challenges officials face as they normalize fiscal policies.

2013-10-31 00:00:00 Scrooge McDucks by William Gross of PIMCO

With the budget and debt ceiling crises temporarily averted, perhaps a future economic priority will be to promote economic growth; one way to do that may be via tax reform. How to proceed depends as always on the view of the observer and whether the glasses are worn by capital, labor or government interests.

2013-10-31 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices saw robust gains in September as the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing its bond purchase programs. In addition, the lowering of the U.S. growth forecast by the Fed lifted investor optimism that the quantitative easing is likely to be wound down at a very gradual pace.

2013-10-29 00:00:00 Defining the EM Corporate Bond Opportunity by Sponsored Content from Loomis Sayles (Article)

Finance is a numbers business. Investors study prices, yields, rates of return. However, when it comes to sizing up emerging markets, we think they should also pay attention to semantics. In the past, terming a country “emerging” made it synonymous with low credit quality and higher risk. But today, many emerging markets boast strong credit profiles while parts of the developed world buckle under heavy debt loads.

2013-10-29 00:00:00 Equities Reach All-Time HighsYet Again! by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities marked another all-time high last week as the S&P 500 increased 0.9%. (1) Global equities reached new cycle highs for the second week in a row. Many investors have concerns that the gains will not last since the world economy remains lackluster and the liquidity driving the current rally will eventually stop.

2013-10-28 00:00:00 Crawling, Economic Impact of Stubbing Your Toe and Employment by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis

I have to admit, I had a lot of trouble figuring out where to start this week -- unemployment from last week, post-shutdown observations, exports or sobering observations around expected growth of the US economy and expected implications. It was a Barrons article, Slowing to a Crawl that pushed me to address the latter first. Why? Much of what the article focuses on hit very close to home the impact of demographics and economic data on our economies.

2013-10-28 00:00:00 The Markets in a Tug of War in the Short Run by Matt Lloyd of Advisors Asset Management

As the damage to sentiment that was brought about by the Washington Drama Club, a somewhat cautious number has come about. On October 21, 2013, the Wall Street Journal had an article detailing margin debt hitting new highs which counteracts some of the investor sentiment numbers that are detailed by several sources. To get a better understanding, we ran the margin debt as a percentage of corporate equities over the last 25 years.

2013-10-25 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

The upcoming check-up of eurozone banks is long overdue. Quantitative easing is having little impact on U.S. bank lending. China needs to do more to stress consumption.

2013-10-25 00:00:00 Why Growth is Deep in the Heart of Texas by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

TIME Magazine?s cover this week features an engaging collage of the 50 states reassembled to fit within the boundaries of Texas. With a growing number of solid-paying jobs, affordable housing, and low taxes, ?the Lone Star State is America?s Future,? declares economist and writer Tyler Cowen.

2013-10-25 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

When an economy is excessively over-indebted and disinflationary factors have forced central banks to make overnight interest rates as close to zero as possible, central bank policy has repeatedly proved powerless to further move inflation or growth metrics. Four considerations suggest the Fed will continue to be unsuccessful in engineering stronger growth and higher inflation with their continuation of the current program of Large Scale Asset Purchases.

2013-10-23 00:00:00 The Right Investment Vehicle by Craig French of WBI Investments

Remember your first car? You probably had some good times in it passing your drivers license exam, going to the prom, driving to your first job. You most likely have a different car now that youre older one more suited to your current lifestyle and needs. Ill bet your current car is a lot safer and more reliable than that first one. A car is a motor vehicle you use to reach your destination. Like a car, an investment portfolio is a vehicle you use to reach your clients investment goals.

2013-10-23 00:00:00 Can Kicked Down the Road Once Again... by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital

Donkeys 1, Elephants 0, Congress -535. The can was kicked down the road once again. We would all like to think that Congress will avoid another last minute battle in early 2014, but unfortunately we cant put it past the current list of non-negotiators. The only thing that is certain in the future is that it will be many election cycles before a member of Congress makes it into the World Series of U.S. Presidential ballots.

2013-10-23 00:00:00 Economic & Capital Market Summary by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

It has been five years since the Financial Crisis wreaked havoc on the economy and capital markets. With equity markets trading near record highs and new issue corporate bonds coming to market regularly, the capital markets have largely recovered. However, we are concerned that the economic recovery is just an illusion that exists in spite of the efforts in Washington D.C. to kill it.

2013-10-23 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review - 3Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further trimmed its forecast for global growth. The Washington-based lender said expansion will be driven more by developed economies as emerging markets grapple with slowing growth and a tighter global financial scenario as interest rates hint of trending higher in advanced economies such as the United States. However, a reading of economic tea leaves for the Euro-zone and economies such as Russia, Turkey, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic offers room for optimism.

2013-10-22 00:00:00 Earnings Season Hides in the Government Shadow by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Lost in all the discussion about Washington is the fact earnings season is in full swing.It is shaping up to be another interesting reporting season, on account of volatility in the markets and economy.So far, companies are beating expectations, but the broader trend is lower.

2013-10-22 00:00:00 A by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

State and local government revenues have finally started growing again. The resultant boost to spending and hiring should aid the economy.

2013-10-22 00:00:00 Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review - 3Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Economic activity in the Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) has been hindered by prolonged political unrest and civil strife. The regions vulnerability has increased over the last two years due to mounting structural challenges. Whats more, widening fiscal deficits due to the economic slowdown and dwindling foreign currency reserves remain sources of concern, as noted by a World Bank report.

2013-10-18 00:00:00 Despite Uncertainty, the Market Still Looks Strong by Charlie Dreifus of The Royce Funds

Although it was an ugly battle, on Thursday morning October 17 President Obama signed a bill that reopened the government into January 2014 and raised the debt ceiling until early February of next year.

2013-10-18 00:00:00 In Other News by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

It will take some time to gauge the full impact of the government shutdown and data is likely to be somewhat skewed over the next couple of months. However, sitting on the sidelines isnt a great option and stocks still appear to us to be the best place to invest money for the longer term. International growth, although not robust, appears to be more supportive as we head into 2014 than it has since the financial crisis, and we favor developed over emerging markets for the time being.

2013-10-17 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

The gov is closed for business. Nuff said. (But help may be on the wayor not?)

2013-10-16 00:00:00 Pacific Basin Market Overview - September 2013 by Team of Nomura Asset Management

North Asian markets ended higher during the quarter after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke appeared to infer that the Feds asset purchase program would be extended for a while longer. On the other hand, India and the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region underperformed along with weakening currencies and continued fund outflows. In China, Premier Li Keqiangs statement that China would meet its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target this year, coupled with better-than-expected economic data, brought some relief to the equity markets.

2013-10-16 00:00:00 Equity Outlook by Team of Osterweis Capital Management

As we write this outlook, our political leaders once again have succeeded in holding the U.S. government budget, and by extension the financial markets and the broader economy, hostage to their respective political agendas. We believe it is important to avoid getting caught up in the drama on Capitol Hill and remain focused on the slow but continued healing taking place in the U.S. economy.

2013-10-16 00:00:00 Two More Reasons to Like Equities: Growth & Inflation by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Russ offers more evidence supporting his preference for equities over bonds: Historically equities have tended to outperform bonds on a monthly basis in a growth and inflation scenario like the one were in today.

2013-10-14 00:00:00 Equity Market Review & Outlook by Richard Skaggs of Loomis Sayles

Equities generally performed well across the board in the third quarter. The S&P 500 Indexs solid 5.24% return built on strong gains from earlier in the year. The Index has returned more than 19% through September, surpassing expectations at the start of the year. Slow but steady economic growth in the US, support from the Federal Reserve (the Fed), and more recently, signs of potentially better growth in Europe and Asia have been important positive catalysts.

2013-10-14 00:00:00 Me and My Horse by Jim Goff of Janus Capital Group

This is not a story about getting back on the horse that throws you. It is about just staying on the horse. It is also a market story.

2013-10-12 00:00:00 Debt Ceiling Delusions by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

The popular take on the current debt ceiling stand-off is that the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party has a delusional belief that it can hit the brakes on new debt creation without bringing on an economic catastrophe. While Republicans are indeed kidding themselves if they believe that their actions will not unleash deep economic turmoil, there are much deeper and more significant delusions on the other side of the aisle.

2013-10-10 00:00:00 Economic and Market Overview: Third Quarter 2013 by Team of Envestnet

The economic environment in the third quarter was one of growth, albeit at a slower pace than most economists, and the Federal Reserve (?Fed?), believe can be self-?sustaining. The slow but steady gains the economy made were enough to buoy the stock market, but likely only because the Fed has seen it necessary to maintain its aggressive monetary policy. While employment gains were anemic during the quarter, the unemployment rate actually declined to 7.3%, largely due to a contraction in the labor force.

2013-10-09 00:00:00 Taper Time - Mining, That Is by Adam Bowe, Robert Mead of PIMCO

Recent data suggest that mining investment is tapering, with the sector detracting from real growth in the first half of 2013. We see three possible growth scenarios: a handoff to the corporate sector; no handoff, with demand continuing to slow; or a handoff to the highly levered household sector, which would create long-term risks. Until we see meaningful signs of a growth handoff from the mining sector to a new balance sheet that has the capacity to expand, our base case calls for sub-trend growth and low interest rates, supporting bond prices over the cyclical horizon.

2013-10-08 00:00:00 Government Shutdown Masks Pending Debt Ceiling and Third Quarter Earnings by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Equities were mixed last week as the markets were focused on the budget impasse in Washington, D.C., that forced the federal government into a partial shutdown. As with the 17 prior shutdowns, we do not anticipate a lasting impact on the economy or markets. While the shutdown makes headlines, the issues that will likely have the most impact are the debt ceiling debate and third quarter corporate earnings announcements, which could mean a bumpy ride for investors.

2013-10-08 00:00:00 The Death of Fixed Income? Not so Fast . . . by Giordano Lombardo of Pioneer Investments

Recent market movements have reminded investors that the fixed income market is facing a secular change, after a 30-year-long bull market driven by a continuous decline in interest rates. I believe the announcements of the death of fixed income as an asset class are greatly exaggerated, and in order to face the new reality, fixed income investors and asset allocators need to adopt a significant change of approach.

2013-10-08 00:00:00 And That's The Qaurter That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

An obsession with Fed policy; troubles in Syria; new concerns in DCand yet the market kept rolling (for a while).

2013-10-08 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

The gov is closed for business. Nuff said. Coming up in the week ahead: ISM Fed Minutes (Wednesday) Retail Sales (Friday), PPI (Friday)or maybe not.

2013-10-07 00:00:00 Defining the EM Corporate Bond Opportunity by Elisabeth Colleran, Peter Frick, Peter Marber, David Rolley, Edgardo Sternberg of Loomis Sayles

Finance is a numbers business. Investors study prices, yields, rates of return. However, when it comes to sizing up emerging markets, we think they should also pay attention to semantics. In the past, terming a country emerging made it synonymous with low credit quality and higher risk. But today, many emerging markets boast strong credit profiles while parts of the developed world buckle under heavy debt loads.

2013-10-04 00:00:00 The Fire Fueling Gold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

For patient, long-term investors looking for a great portfolio diversifier, a moderate weighting in gold and gold stocks may be just the answer. And, today, when looking across the gold mining industry, you?ll find plenty of companies that have paid attractive dividends, many higher than the 5-year government yield.

2013-10-03 00:00:00 More Heat Than Light by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

Following their surprising decision to maintain the current pace of quantitative easing (QE), Fed officials provided more detailed reasoning last week in public remarks and interviews with media outlets. Unfortunately, the latest comments added more heat than light to the QE debate in our view. Much like Chairman Bernankes post-meeting press conference, officials expressed contradictory views on several major policy questions.

2013-10-02 00:00:00 Weak Credit Growth Main Reason for Lackluster Economic Recovery by Minyi Chen of AdvisorShares

The U.S. economy is a credit-based economy. Economic expansion is fueled mostly by borrowing and consuming rather than saving and investing. A continuous expansion of credit is needed for the economy to grow. The main reason the economic recovery has been so lackluster is that credit growth has remained weak despite the Federal Reserves continuing liquidity injections.

2013-10-02 00:00:00 Quarterly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Many of us bear emotional scars from the excesses of a debt-driven, casino-like mid-2000 decade. The last recession was punctuated by lost jobs, lowering wages, diminishing portfolio valuations, putrid returns on cash savings, and a total decimation of confidence in the so-called Titans who drove the Wall Street bus during that period.

2013-10-01 00:00:00 Europe Pokes Its Head Out From the Shadows by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

With all the focus on affairs in the US, China and developing nations, Europe has largely been given a free pass in recent months. The lack of attention gave Europe the opportunity to fix some of its troubles, but challenges remain and are likely to surface in the weeks ahead.

2013-10-01 00:00:00 Putin's Gambit by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management

Earlier this month, President Obama found himself in a very difficult position regarding Syria. An ill-advised comment about making the use of chemical weapons a red line forced a response when the weapons were clearly used in Syria. The administration began moving toward a military response. However, support for military operations was lacking both domestically and internationally. The clearest signal of this opposition was the British Parliaments vote to prevent P.M. Cameron from authorizing military action in support of the expected U.S. military strike.

2013-09-30 00:00:00 Government Shutdown Could Lead to a Buying Opportunity by Matt Lloyd of Advisors Asset Management

As we approach yet another self-induced the sky is falling and the other guy is to blame environment, recall that this situation is not uncommon. We have had 17 of these budget debt ceiling deadlines and yet we have unbelievably (said with extreme rolling of the eyes) been able to overcome our elected officials calls for the end of the world. The most recent time when the U.S. government shutdown was in November 1995 concluding in January 1996,when arguably the animosity and polarization was as pronounced as it is today.

2013-09-27 00:00:00 Decomposing Today's Record Profit Margins by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management

Again, the popular perception is that this cycles record margins stem from dramatic strides in corporate efficiency, driven in good part by the outsourcing of manufacturing/assembly operations to lower labor cost countries. But most margin expansion since the 1990s is attributable to a couple of other players -- specifically, the Bond Bulls and the Bookkeepers (we know, it sounds like a cheap romance novel).

2013-09-27 00:00:00 Give Me Tapering... Just Not Yet by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

Last week Federal Reserve (the Fed) officials surprised investors by choosing not to begin slowing the pace of quantitative easing (QE) despite months of setup in their public comments. Instead, the latest iteration of the Feds bond buying strategy will continue at $85 billion per month. At this point our best guess is that the decision was a path of least resistance among a divided committee: there seemed to be a number of officials who were concerned about downside risks to growth from fiscal policy uncertainty and higher interest rates.

2013-09-27 00:00:00 How to Profit from a Changing China by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

We believe Chinas rebalancing is positive for investors who selectively invest in its stocks. As Jim ONeill puts it, When a country is embarking on a significant compositional change to its economy, stock-pickers rather than index-trackers have the upper hand.

2013-09-27 00:00:00 You Never Know by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Surprises come at any moment in the investing world, reinforcing the need to have both a long-term view and a balanced/diversified portfolio. We believe signs are pointing to better US and European growth, a near-term rebound in China, and some possible positive momentum building in Japan. But near-term fiscal policy risks abound. Investors that need to add to equity positions should use pullbacks to do so.

2013-09-26 00:00:00 One Trick Pony: Whipping the GDP Donkey into a Stallion by Cliff Draughn of Excelsia

The difficulty since 2012 has been that if you are not significantly overweight US equities, then your returns are less than stellar. Employing a diversified, risk-averse investment strategy in 2013 has in hindsight been the wrong thing to do, given that every other asset class is negative year-to-date, while US stocks are up double digits. The combination of the Feds Zero Interest Rate Policy and the artificial bubble in Treasury bonds has forced conservative investors into riskier positions in order to find risk-adjusted returns.

2013-09-25 00:00:00 Secular Trends in Asian Credit Markets Shape Long-Term Investment Themes by Robert Mead, Raja Mukherji of PIMCO

The next several years will likely see many Asian corporate issuers to come to the market for financing, whether to pursue long-term business plans or to employ traditional corporate finance and leverage strategies. Rigorous credit research, flexible resources, experienced local portfolio management and strong relationships with local stakeholders are all crucial to uncovering attractive opportunities while monitoring volatility in Asias credit markets.

2013-09-25 00:00:00 Misplaced Budget Priorities by Scott Brown of Raymond James

The Federal Open Market Committee delayed the initial reduction in the pace of its asset purchases, citing concern about the recent tightening of financial conditions (higher long-term interest rates). However, Bernanke also noted uncertainty in fiscal policy. He recognized the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since the Fed began QE3, which was achieved in spite of a federal fiscal retrenchment. He also suggested that the debates on the governments spending and borrowing authorities may create downside risks.

2013-09-25 00:00:00 Bernanke's Temporary Reprieve by Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management

There is no nice way to state this opinion: the end of Quantitative Easing and the ultimate allowance of the open market to set interest rates will create a grueling multi-decade bear market in US bond investments. Higher rates mean the re-pricing of existing bond instruments to lower prices and the principle risk of longer-dated maturities getting exposed. In 1983, I remember people losing approximately 15% of their market value in one year as Treasury interest rates rose from 11% to 14%, temporarily crushing owners of 25-year tax-free unit trusts.

2013-09-24 00:00:00 ENERGY MLPs: A Suitable and Sustainable Asset Class by Sponsored Content from ClearBridge Investments (Article)

Key Takeaways: MLPs have provided income with little correlation to other asset classes and little sensitivity to interest rates, commodity prices or economic cycles. The market for MLP stocks has expanded greatly and offers liquidity which appeals to long-term institutional investors. The renaissance in U.S. energy production is driving sustainable growth in the infrastructure that MLPs own and operate

2013-09-24 00:00:00 Michael Aronsteins Warning to Fund Investors by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Fixed-income investors may think rising interest rates are their biggest worry. But bond funds face a new risk, driven by their need for liquidity to service investors daily redemptions, according to Michael Aronstein.

2013-09-24 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

The Federal Reserve kept its word last week: until they see an improvement in jobs growth and wages they simply wont budge on their mission to keep interest rates low to stimulate borrowing and economic expansion. What this means to the markets, however, is more ambiguous.

2013-09-24 00:00:00 The Brazil Conundrum by Bill OGrady, Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management

The last decade has been exceptionally good for emerging markets. Never before have so many countries grown so rapidly, and at the same time. The average growth rate from 2003 to 2012 was 13.1% for emerging markets, while the long-term average stands at 5.0%. This growth rate was partly due to mean reversion after sluggish growth periods in the 80s and 90s, when the average growth rate for the group stood at 3.5%.

2013-09-23 00:00:00 Seeking Global Growth: Our Outlook for Credit by James Balfour of Loomis Sayles

Global business and credit cycles are nothing new to investors. The familiar sequence of recession, recovery, expansion and slowdown plays out over time, influencing interest rates, credit availability, business climate and capital markets. Its a time-honored process, but in practice, no two business and credit cycle pairings are exactly alike. Business and credit cycles tend to be driven by specific but varying factors that accumulate until an economic tipping point is reached, after which the business and credit climates deteriorate.

2013-09-23 00:00:00 Happy Anniversary? Perspectives on the Financial Crisis Five Years Later by Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson of Hartford Funds

Since 2008, theres been slow but steady improvement in the global economypolicy makers unconventional tools have helped stabilize ?nancial markets and bought time for economies to rebalance. Expectations are too low for developed-market growth and in?ation, in our view. As such, we think this environment will be positive for developed-equity marketsparticularly in Europe and Japan.

2013-09-23 00:00:00 Fed Inaction Lengthens Reflationary Economy by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities advanced last week as the S&P 500 increased 1.32%.1 The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a big surprise by leaving intact the current $85 billion monthly purchase program. The Committee appears nervous about the resiliency of the economy. Chairman Bernanke pointed to three factors for postponing tapering: 1) the need for more labor market data to be confident in the outlook, 2) a desire to assess the degree to which tighter financial conditions, particularly mortgage rates, are affecting the real economy and 3) an interest in gaining clarity on upcoming fiscal debates.̶

2013-09-20 00:00:00 Rising Interest Rates Must End Soon by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen by more than 84 percent from May to early September, one of the most violent and rapid increases on record. This spike has caused severe convulsions in the bond market, leading many investors to wonder how long the torment can last.

2013-09-20 00:00:00 Growth and Rising Stars by Mark Kiesel of PIMCO

While developed market growth in several regions is picking up cyclically from low levels, overall global economic growth should remain subdued over the next several years. We believe credit spread tightening and rating upgrades are most likely for specific companies in industries and areas with strong growth. We see these "rising star" companies in the U.S. and European auto sector, the gaming, energy and chemical industries and in sectors tied to the U.S. housing market.

2013-09-19 00:00:00 A Closer Look at Earnings by Ted Baszler of Heartland Advisors

To get a sense of whether forward estimates currently in place for the S&P 500 may be excessiveparticularly in light of an economic recovery that has at times moved in fits and startswe took a look at how earnings have historically related to weekly jobless claims figures.

2013-09-19 00:00:00 The Taper That Wasn't by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

The Feds failure today to announce some sort of tapering of its QE program, despite the consensus of an overwhelming percentage of economists who expected action, once again reveals the degree to which mainstream analysts have overestimated the strength of our current economy. The Fed understands, as the market seems not to, that the current "recovery" could not survive without continuation of massive monetary stimulus.

2013-09-19 00:00:00 Will Healthcare Reform Raise the Economy's Pulse? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

The prognosis is by no means clear. Ambiguity surrounding the implementation of the Affordable Care Act will create further uncertainty for the economy in the years ahead.

2013-09-19 00:00:00 A Fine Balance in the Global Profits Cycle by Saumil Parikh of PIMCO

In the U.S., we expect growth to accelerate over the cyclical horizon, but to disappoint elevated consensus expectations. In Europe, we also expect growth to accelerate, but just barely, and also below consensus. In Japan, we expect growth to remain heavily reliant on aggressive fiscal and monetary policies. And in emerging markets, we expect a stabilization in growth assisted by central banks regaining control of currency and financial market conditions. The outlook for global corporate profits is a key measure of success in determining the handoff to self-sustaining growth going forward.

2013-09-18 00:00:00 Bernanke Gets Another Chance to Communicate by Scott Brown of Raymond James

It seems clear that most Fed policymakers have not decided whether to begin reducing the pace of asset purchases. Officials will review a wide range of data and anecdotal information this week. Its generally (but not universally) expected that this will lead the Federal Open Market Committee to begin tapering, but modestly, while signaling a wait-and-see attitude on further action. The Fed should continue to stress that short-term interest rates will remain low for some time. The economy is still far from being fully recovered, but were well on our way.

2013-09-18 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

Stocks rallied last week as military options in Syria no longer look likely given the disapproval of the American people and Congress. Additionally, this embarrassing agreement reached with Russia is an admission that the USA will not intervene.

2013-09-18 00:00:00 The End Times for Strategic Ambiguity by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Strategic ambiguity is defined as a condition where various parties say something similar but believe something entirely different. A good example of this is U.S. and Chinese policy toward Taiwan. Both nations say Taiwan is part of China. The U.S. believes that Taiwans democratic government should become the model for the mainland, whereas China believes Taiwan should be part of its nation as it is currently structured. Because both nations say the same thing, the policy difference is not publicly obvious and thus not a problem, at least as long as the ambiguity lasts.

2013-09-17 00:00:00 “Risk-On” Resumes as Uncertainty Subsides by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Equity markets rallied last week with the hope of a diplomatic solution to the crisis between Syria and the United States. The S&P 500 advanced 2.03% for the week.1 Broadly, the S&P 500 is in a churning phase after witnessing an all-time high of 1709 on August 2 and then stalling.1 We believe the market has been on hold while waiting for lower oil prices, progress on Syria, further global growth and successful Federal Reserve tapering.

2013-09-17 00:00:00 Consumers Face An Economy at a Crossroads by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

As the Federal Reserve prepares to debate the merits of tapering its asset purchase program this week, a key area of the economy that will be closely analyzed by Bernanke and Co. is the health of the American consumer. There are tenuous signs that consumers are spending more, but attitudes towards the economic recovery are hardly encouraging. Consumers will find it difficult to stay the key cog of economic growth in the U.S., but at the very least, their participation in the recovery is imperative, and leaves much to be desired.

2013-09-16 00:00:00 Opportunities in Uncertainty by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Uncertainty and volatility are elevated, which we believe provides opportunities for investors.

2013-09-13 00:00:00 What's Happening to Bonds and Why? by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO

To say that bonds are under pressure would be an understatement. Over the last few months, sentiment about fixed income has flipped dramatically: from a favored investment destination that is deemed to benefit from exceptional support from central banks, to an asset class experiencing large outflows, negative returns and reduced standing as an anchor of a well-diversified asset allocation.

2013-09-13 00:00:00 The View from Here - September 13, 2013: Five Years After by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

How much have we recovered from the global financial crisis?

2013-09-12 00:00:00 Brave New World by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms of ING Investment Management

If the monotony of high school lulled you into a catatonic state the semester you were supposed to read Brave New World, heres the CliffsNotes summary of what you missed. Aldous Huxley imagined a futuristic utopia in which the government promotes economic and emotional stability through the plentiful use of a soporific opiate called soma. Soma allows the mind to take a holiday from worldly problems via a gram, or two or three. Imagine the chaos into which this fictional world would descend were the government to abandon its role as pharmacist to the masses.

2013-09-12 00:00:00 Unemployment, Participation and the Fed by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

Despite a mediocre August jobs report, we still expect the Federal Reserve to announce a slowing of the pace of bond purchases when it meets next week. One reason for this view is that Fed officials care more about the level of the unemployment rate than the pace of job creation. We often write that monetary policy is about gaps not growth: the Fed is trying to reduce spare capacity in the economy, not bring about a rapid expansion per se.

2013-09-10 00:00:00 Letters to the Editor by Various (Article)

Several readers responded to Michael Edesess article, Did Steve Jobs Really Build That?, which appeared last week. A reader responded to Stephen Roachs commentary, The Global QE Exit Crisis, which appeared on August 26.

2013-09-09 00:00:00 The Lesson of the Coming Decade by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Even if the S&P 500 Index goes nowhere over the coming decade - as historically reliable measures of valuation suggest - it will probably go nowhere in an interesting and volatile way, providing better value and opportunities that are well-supported by historical evidence. The challenge will be to maintain discipline even when frustration begs investors to abandon it.

2013-09-09 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

A couple of holidays during the week prompted some light volume and volatility as investors were forced to digest a slew of key economic releases and some potentially concerning geopolitical developments on a limited work schedule. In the end, investors took advantage of bargains leftover from a poor August, but many still maintain the same uncertainties that caused the pullback in the first place. Syria and the Fedthe headlines should be around for the foreseeable future.

2013-09-09 00:00:00 Market Technicals Signal Trouble Ahead by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Bear market enthusiasts have so far been disappointed in September after the sudden market rally last week. With equities up more than 1% on the month, many bears pointed to the historically poor performance of equity markets during this month as a reason to remain cautious. Bear enthusiasts need not fear, as markets appear to be converging toward an inflection point right around the Fed meeting in the middle of the month.

2013-09-06 00:00:00 The Emerging Markets Debt Evolution by Giordano Lombardo of Pioneer Investments

My colleagues Mauro Ratto, Head of Emerging Markets, and Yerlan Syzdykov, Head of Emerging Markets Bond & High Yield, offered these thoughts on emerging markets.

2013-09-06 00:00:00 Four Interest Rate Scenarios We Could Face by Mike Temple of Pioneer Investments

Ive written a lot lately on the subject of duration and its potential impact on investor portfolios, now that the initial goals of the Federal Reserves Great Monetary Experiment appear largely accomplished and tapering of its monthly purchase of Treasuries to keep rates low is on the table. The era of lowering interest rates and rising bond prices looks finally at an end, with no place for rates to go but up. Its vital, then, that investors think about the impact that rising bond yields could have on their portfolios. Here are a few scenarios w

2013-09-06 00:00:00 India - A World of Contrasts by William Hackett of Matthews Asia

Recently, I had the opportunity to join one of our Matthews Asia portfolio managers during a research trip to India, and was reminded of both the importance of such on-the-ground visits as well as the rigor required to conduct them.

2013-09-06 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Manufacturing surveys are upbeat, but should we trust them? The August employment report leaves lots of room for improvement.

2013-09-05 00:00:00 India and Indonesia by Team of Matthews Asia

Comments from the Federal Reserve to begin reducing its stimulus operations have weighed heavily on markets across Asia in recent weeks. Growing investor concerns have largely centered on those economies that have been running current account deficits and that are likely to be further impacted by lower growth forecasts and reduced capital inflows. More short term, speculative flows from investors into fast-growing Asian economies have also fallen as expectations for higher interest rates in the U.S. have risen.

2013-09-05 00:00:00 Is China Past Its Manufacturing Prime? by Sammy Suzuki of AllianceBernstein

China has been an incredible export engine of manufactured goods over the past decade and the central player of the BRICs era. But mounting competition from other countries is gradually pulling production away from China. How should investors proceed?

2013-09-04 00:00:00 The Bond Bear is Waking Up by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors

Weve been bond bears for quite some time, and we still are. The good news is that the violent part of the bear market has passed. We expect a slower, but still painful and consistent, move higher in interest rates during the quarters ahead. The 30-year bull market in bonds is over.

2013-09-04 00:00:00 Abe Wins - Does Japan Benefit? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

The Japanese seem willing to give Abe room to reform when he decides to act.

2013-09-04 00:00:00 In a Little While: Market's Not Out of the Woods Yet by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Since moving into the "pullback" camp in early August, the market has had a mini-correction and it may not be over. Sentiment and technical conditions have improved; as has the economic backdrop, but risks remain. Until we get past Syria, Fed tapering and the debt ceiling, volatility may remain elevated.

2013-09-03 00:00:00 Where's the Job Growth? Puerto Rico & Illinois and the ACA by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis

Welcome back from your Labor Day weekend. This week we take a look at the employment data (pre-First Friday Employment Report) and try and find where there is Job Growth of any kind. We then take a closer look at Puerto Rico against the backdrop of some recent changes and comparative data, and close out with a look at the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare).

2013-09-03 00:00:00 So Step Right Up, Pick Your Favorites... by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital

So with the backing of The White House, the State Department, the Senate & The Economist, the United States is going to launch Tomahawks on Syrian targets. The President did say that he will let Congress vote on a strike, but both he, Secretary Kerry and Senator Reid let it be known that they will be lighting fuses soon. So as a refresher as to who is supporting whom in Syria, the chart below will both assist and thoroughly confuse you...

2013-09-03 00:00:00 Momentum in Europe by Janus Equity Investment Team of Janus Capital Group

We think now is a good time to be investing in Europe. European equity valuations are at the lowest level in more than 40 years, by some measures, and we are seeing green shoots in the regions downtrodden economy. Meanwhile, European companies in several industries have right-sized their cost structures or refocused their businesses, setting them up to be more competitive on a global scale.

2013-09-03 00:00:00 As Uncertainty Abounds in September, Sideways Consolidation Continues by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Global equities struggled last week, with the S&P 500 declining -1.39%.1 Volatility rose from geopolitical uncertainty over the military strike in Syria.2 Oil prices spiked with concerns about escalation and tension but retreated due to dampened international support and expectations that a military campaign would be short-lived. The U.S. Treasury announced its borrowing capacity will be exhausted by mid-October, exposing contentious fiscal battles. Reports mentioned former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers may be leading the succession race for Fed Chairman.

2013-08-30 00:00:00 The Unfriendly Skies by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

As if the federal government were not already doing enough to kill the U.S. airline industry with restrictive workplace rules, over-regulation, and a monetary policy that supports higher fuel prices, earlier this month anti-trust authorities at the Justice Department blocked the merger between American Airlines and US Air.

2013-08-30 00:00:00 An American Energy Revolution by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

In Texas these days, theres a feeling of absolute and unwavering confidence in the concept of an American energy revolution. From the depths of reserves to the richness of the energy, an incredible transformation is taking place.

2013-08-29 00:00:00 More Evidence of Pressure on Housing by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The slowdown in housing due to higher mortgage rates is becoming more evident in the data for that market. This comes during a time when the Fed is making a crucial decision about tapering quantitative easing, which is causing market uncertainty to rise further.

2013-08-29 00:00:00 Earnings: Just Good Enough by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Corporate profits arent exactly setting the world on fire, but the rate of growth should be sufficient to support further equity market gains.

2013-08-27 00:00:00 How Real is the Recovery in Commercial Real Estate? by Joel Beam, Ian Goltra of Forward Management

How Real Is the Recovery in Commercial Real Estate? A conversation with Joel Beam and Ian Goltra of Forwards Real Estate Portfolio Management Team.

2013-08-27 00:00:00 The Egyptian Coup: an Update by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

In this report, we will update developments in Egypt and discuss how the militarys actions increase the odds of future problems. We will study the militarys goals for the coup. From there, we will examine the Obama administrations difficult position and how the Egyptian coup has caused a divergence of responses from regional powers. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

2013-08-26 00:00:00 Summers For Fed Chair by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors

In the next month or two, President Obama will pick someone to succeed Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve. At this point, we think the odds-on favorite is Larry Summers.

2013-08-26 00:00:00 Chicago Post Script, Reported Data Errors (Really) and What is a “Geo Score”? by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis

Regular readers know I periodically suggest looking at alternative data points to gain a broader perspective. In this instance, something a little different. At the core of the DIVER platform is our database and we take data integrity very seriously. So much so that we periodically find errors in reported data. Many times, the source will correct the data as we notify them. Typically, when we find an error in a CAFR, the source will defer the correction until the next CAFR is released. In DIVER however, we will display the accurate values.

2013-08-23 00:00:00 5 China Charts That Look Bullish for Commodities by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Over the past few months, investors have seen better economic data coming out of Europe. Consumer confidence in the continent has been rising, manufacturing data is improving and the fiscal situation is on the mend. Now, China appears to be strengthening as well, which could signal better times ahead. Below are five charts that look bullish for China and commodities. While not meant to be comprehensive, they do point to areas where investors might want to pay close attention.

2013-08-23 00:00:00 Embrace Bottom Up by Herbert and Randall Abramson of Trapeze Asset Management

With all the conflicting macro news, some good, some not, and with the S&P 500 and the Dow at new highs while many sectors languish, it is preferable to focus on the little picture not the big one. The big one may currently be more unpredictable than the small one, being bottom up investment in undervalued securities. Those may currently be less popular, but we value investors are naturally driven to buy investments low, that are neglected and unpopular, with the view of selling them high when their popularity is enhanced. Buy low and sell high. Not buy high and sell higher as is now in vogue.

2013-08-23 00:00:00 Buckle Up by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Caution is warranted near-term. For investors that have a solid strategy of dollar-cost averaging into the market, we dont recommend deviating from that path. However, for investors who are more tactical, better entry points are likely yet to come. Longer-term, we remain bullish on US equities and prefer developed international markets over emerging markets.

2013-08-20 00:00:00 August Monthly Investment Bulletins by Team of Bedlam Asset Management

For the first seven months of the year the portfolio rose by 25.2% vs. 19.3% for the index. During the month, the 6.4% gain was 150 basis points ahead. Three trends continued: the gradual increase in fund flows into equity markets relative to other asset classes, slightly improving economic data across most developed countries, and a mild deterioration in many developing nations.

2013-08-19 00:00:00 Equity Fatigue Continues with Headwinds from Bond Sell-off by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished lower for the second straight week as the S&P 500 declined 2.04%, narrowly escaping its worst week of the year. A specific catalyst behind the pullback was not identified by us or market analysts.

2013-08-19 00:00:00 Consumers: Wallets Open, but Not Too Wide by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

U.S. consumer spending is likely to remain on a slow, but steady, growth trajectory, boosting overall economic growth.

2013-08-16 00:00:00 Pacific Basin Market Overview July 2013 by Team of Nomura Asset Management

Asian markets ended higher in July after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke appeared to infer that the Feds asset purchase program would be extended for a while longer. In China, Premier Li Keqiang stated that China would meet its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target this year, which brought some cheer to the markets. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Free Index including Japan gained 1.5% while the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Free Index closed 2.0% higher during the quarter.

2013-08-16 00:00:00 Using Equities to Hedge Inflation? Tread With Care by Bob Greer, Raji Manasseh of PIMCO

Historically, broad equity returns have not intrinsically provided a good hedge against inflation. Three key attributes may help companies withstand inflationary environments - pricing power, supply side advantages and a willingness and ability to sustain dividend hikes at a rate faster than inflation. To realize equities long-term potential as a key source of portfolio returns, investors should consider enlisting active managers who select stocks with a view on inflation and its effect on specific companies.

2013-08-16 00:00:00 What Happens When You Tell Indians to Stop Buying Gold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

With the government in India raising its import tax for gold to 10 percent this week, I firmly believe Indians will continue indulging in gold, even if they have to smuggle it in.

2013-08-16 00:00:00 Attention Investors: Don't Fear Rising Rates; Fear Perpetually Low Rates by J.J. Abodeely of Sitka Pacific Capital Management

This months Insight will take a look at the performance of bonds during two previous inflationary periods, the 1940s and the 1970s, and illustrate two very different total return experiences. Through these examples, we will show that bond investors-- and by extension, any investor with a traditional balanced portfolio, should not fear rising rates as much as they should fear perpetually low rates.

2013-08-15 00:00:00 What Lies Ahead for China? McKinsey Lists 10 Forces by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

By 2022, research by McKinsey suggests that 75 percent of urban consumers in China will earn around $9,000 to $34,000. This income level, which is currently between the average earned in Brazil and Italy, is only 4 percent of what Chinese households were bringing home in 2000.

2013-08-14 00:00:00 Pause: Breather Needed Short-Term, But Longer-Term Still Looks Good by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Sentiment has gotten a little frothy ahead of a typically-seasonally weak period, but valuation remains attractiveoh, and dont fret low volume.

2013-08-13 00:00:00 China Struggles to Fight the Trend by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Prior to the global financial crisis, decoupling was the word du jour. In the years since the crisis began, however, decoupling has vanished from the everyday lexicon. In recent weeks, the financial media noticed a new form of decoupling, one that shows improving growth prospects in the developed world but slower growth in developing economies. Rightly or otherwise, much of that slowdown is pinned on China and recent data continues to suggest a slower pace of growth than investors became accustomed to in prior decades.

2013-08-13 00:00:00 Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - Q2 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Asias emerging nations, the darling of the world economy since the 2000s, uncharacteristically slowed in the first quarter of 2013. After a decade of robust growth, many of Asias fast-growing economies are coming to terms with structural changes. Asian currencies, which had appreciated quite a bit over the past few years thanks to ultra-loose monetary policy in the developed world, came tumbling down at the first talk of a slowdown in the supply of cheap money.

2013-08-13 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

Stock prices declined modestly last week. A shrinking trade deficit caused 2nd quarter GDP estimates to increase (over 2% now annualized), thus renewing fears that the Federal Reserve would commence tapering at their September meeting.

2013-08-13 00:00:00 Dog Days of Summer Are Upon Us by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital

Hopefully you are reading this from the beach, because there is so little news happening in the markets that those of us in the office are about to start making news up to justify stock price movements. But while news and volumes are at August lows, here are some thoughts that might ring a bell to help you to either make some money or to set down your smartphone and get back to the water.

2013-08-12 00:00:00 The Key Economic and Market Forces Guiding Equity Markets by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

This week we want to address important themes that underline our continued cautious optimism for a slowly improving global economy and signs of revenue and earnings growth momentum.

2013-08-09 00:00:00 A Surprising Way to Play a Europe Rally by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

After a lengthy period of stagnant growth and lackluster results, the gradual crescendo of improving economic data that?s been coming out of Europe lately certainly commands attention.

2013-08-09 00:00:00 The Calm Before the Storm? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Record highs in US equities have resulted thus far in only modestly elevated investor sentiment and it appears retail investors are returning to the market, which could fuel further gains. However, volatility is likely to increase with political and Fed issues on the horizon. Europe remains attractive, along with Japan, but we are watching the potential consumption tax increase closely, while Chinas valuations are improved but concerns remain.

2013-08-08 00:00:00 Market Melt-Up Catches Defensive Investors by Surprise by Douglas Cote of ING Investment Management

Extraordinary returns in the fourth year of a bull market remind us that long-term defensiveness cant be rationalized. July saw remarkable returns across global equity and fixed income markets, with the exception of U.S. Treasuries. Investors would be well served to ignore media drama and fear mongering and simply follow the fundamentals. Five years spent worrying about Armageddon is too long, but theres still time to get back to a normal allocation.

2013-08-08 00:00:00 Not an Entry Point for U.S. Stocks by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

My long-term view of U.S. equities remains bullish, but a number of indicators, as well as near-term macro challenges, point to a pause in the run-up of that asset class.

2013-08-08 00:00:00 The Role of Confidence by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital

The so-called wealth effect plays an important and well recognized part in the functioning of an economy. When assets appreciate in value, the owners translate their increased wealth into increased spending. While at first glance this is unsurprising, it should be noted that this is true even if the appreciation is unrealized, and thus the increased wealth exists solely on paper. The relationship can be stated as follows: the richer people feel, the more they spend. Changes in confidence have an impact on behavior similar to the wealth effect. Thats what this memo is about.

2013-08-07 00:00:00 Adapt or Die... by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital

Bond king Bill Grosss $261.7 billion Total Return Fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. suffered a $7.5 billion net outflow last month, according to data from fund tracker Morningstar Inc. on Friday. It is the third straight monthly outflow for the Fund, on the heels of nearly $10 billion in redemptions in June. Clients have yanked $15.6 billion from Grosss Fund in 2013 through July. Jeffrey Gundlachs $37.9 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund suffered $580 million net outflow in July, according to Morningstar.

2013-08-06 00:00:00 Is China the New France? by Marianne Brunet (Article)

Imagine a country that grows its economy by greatly devaluing against the reserve currency to develop a strong export sector. As the country becomes a major world power, it accumulates massive amounts of the reserve currency, and fears grow that its actions could destabilize global markets. If you think that description sounds like China today, youre right. But it also describes France in the 1920s. Lessons from that era are instructive for those seeking to forecast Chinas long-term position in the world.

2013-08-06 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

After a week like this, everyone needs a vacation. Big Oil led the earnings trail and the results were not pretty. Europe and China both expressed nice signs for their previously weaker manufacturing sectors. At home, the labor results were mixed, manufacturing looked solid, the consumer remained active, and Michael delayed the vote yet again.

2013-08-06 00:00:00 Low Quality Jobs Recovery Continues in July by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

In a busy week of economic data, investors ended the week on a mixed note.The government jobs report revealed a labor market experiencing steady if not unspectacular growth, as nonfarm payrolls came in below consensus estimates while the unemployment rate surprised to the upside.

2013-08-06 00:00:00 Europe's Fake Normal by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate

This summers sense of economic normality in Europe is neither natural nor necessarily tenable in the long term, because it reflects temporary and potentially reversible factors. If Europe does not return to addressing its economic challenges in a more comprehensive manner, the current calm may quickly give way to renewed turmoil.

2013-08-05 00:00:00 Can It Get Any Better Than This? by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

What in the world is going on?! As I write this letter from the Maine woods, the S&P 500 has just cleared 1,700 for the first time. The German DAX continues to set all-time highs above 8,400. The United Kingdoms FTSE 100 is quickly approaching its 1999 record high of 6,930, and its mid-cap cousin, the FTSE 250, just broke through to its all-time level above 15,000. And last but not least, Japans Nikkei 225 is extending its gains once more, toward 14,500.

2013-08-05 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

July U.S. employment report a bit disappointing. Part-time employment gains are not uniform across nations. Affordable Care Act and small business employment.

2013-08-05 00:00:00 Two Charts Illustrate How to ?Follow the Money? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Too often investors get caught up in their political allegiance or parties, focus on the negative and lose confidence in stocks. As a result, they can miss great bull markets. I believe when it comes to finding investment opportunities, it?s not about the political party, it?s about the policies, both monetary and fiscal.

2013-08-05 00:00:00 The Minsky Bubble by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

In his classic treatise on speculation, Manias, Panics and Crashes (originally published in 1978), the late Charles Kindleberger laid out a pattern of events that has periodically occurred in financial markets throughout history. Drawing on the work of economist Hyman Minsky, the conditions he described are likely far more relevant at the present moment than investors may recognize.

2013-08-02 00:00:00 Fed Shows Its Dovish Side by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors

The Federal Reserve made several small changes to the text of its statement, which, combined, suggest a slightly more dovish posture at this meeting than at the last one in June.

2013-08-02 00:00:00 Second Half Challenges by Michael Kayes of Willingdon Wealth Management

One of the most challenging aspects of managing portfolios is to process the endless information flow and determine what impact it will have, if any, on the markets. Some information, while interesting to read about, has virtually no impact on the future direction of stock and bond prices. Other information may not have an immediate impact, but it may be impactful in the future. This, delayed-impact information encompasses the vast majority of information that surfaces on a daily basis.

2013-08-02 00:00:00 U.S. Equities: Tapering expectations by Joseph Tanious of J.P. Morgan Funds

Given the markets strong recent performance, investors are now asking what to expect moving forward. The top of mind question remains: are we likely to see a pull-back and is there still any room for this market to rally further?

2013-08-01 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Throughout the 1980s, we heard talk from the investment community to go global, invest worldwide, perhaps driven by true globalization of corporate exchange and balance sheets, and perhaps also by the need by firms to create new products for their consumers to devour. Mutual funds, brokerages, and private equity companies alike saturated the media with product offerings from every corner of the globe and every possible market sector, including telecom, basic materials, energy and industrial development.

2013-08-01 00:00:00 Is It Time for the Fed to Wind Down the Economic Stimulus? by Team of Knowledge@Wharton

Is it time for the Federal Reserve to start tapering down the "quantitative easing" bond-buying program that has helped stimulate the U.S. economy since the financial crisis of 2008? Views are mixed. Several experts, say yes, its time. Others worry it could be too soon.

2013-08-01 00:00:00 Fed in Watch-and-Wait Mode by Team of Northern Trust

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today held unchanged its current asset purchase program of $85 billion per month. The Federal Reserve avoided providing new nuances to existing forward guidance and re-issued the June policy statement with minor modifications to reflect recent economic developments.

2013-07-31 00:00:00 Bad Trade?! by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Last week I asked myself the obligatory question, Did I make a bad trading decision by targeting mid-July through mid-August (with the date specific of July 19th) as the timing point for the first meaningful decline of the year? The reason for said question was that every time the S&P 500 (SPX/1691.65) sold off last week, buyers showed up to save the day. And, the operative word is trading because that potential downside strategy was merely a short-term tactical call.

2013-07-30 00:00:00 Conflicting Crosscurrents Move Equities Sideways by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished last week narrowly mixed, with the S&P 500 falling -0.02%.1 While the second quarter earnings per share growth continues to move higher, revenue growth remains below trend. The economic calendar is focused on this weeks release of the July employment report. Global macro headlines generated more uncertainty than direction for the markets.

2013-07-30 00:00:00 Earnings Take a Back Seat to Policy by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Although it was a quiet week on the economic front, there were a few notable indicators to digest.

2013-07-30 00:00:00 Economic & Capital Market Summary by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

We are approaching the five year anniversary of the beginning of the Financial Crisis. By this time in 2008 we had already experienced the complete seizure of the Auction Rate Preferred securities market and the takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase. In August of 2008, we would see the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the government takeover of AIG. We stand here today, shoulders slumped, and heads bowed mourning the lack of real progress in addressing the structural problems that are impeding sustained economic growth and private credit expansion.

2013-07-30 00:00:00 FPA Crescent: Steve Romick's Quarterly Commentary by Steven Romick of FPA Funds

FPA Crescent Fund has released its quarterly commentary examining the state of the fund and its investments as well as an outlook on the greater economy. Portfolio manager Steve Romick feels that the economic recovery has been disappointing and largely engineered by central bank policy and worries that low interest rates and novel and theoretical Fed policy could lead to unintended consequences.

2013-07-29 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

So now Prez Obama is sharing his two cents about the economy. After weeks of endless babble from the Fed Chief and his partners in crime about the economy and the longevity of the bond buying program, O is now making job creation his number one priority. Is anyone listening to his urgent messages (certainly no one in DC)? Investors (at least those not on vacation) were less than impressed with the less than impressive earnings of the week, though markets held their own.

2013-07-29 00:00:00 Driftingbut for How Long? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Equities have drifted higher during a decent earnings season with few surprises, while yields have calmed and volatility has plunged. Typical lackluster summer action may prevail for the next month, but action is likely to heat up as the weather begins to cool.

2013-07-26 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary June 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equity prices declined appreciably on heightened investor concerns over an early withdrawal of the monetary stimulus measures in the developed world. The most recent policy statement issued by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which was more optimistic about the growth prospects for the U.S. economy, and comments by Fed officials seemed to suggest that the central bank is preparing to wind down its bond purchase program.

2013-07-26 00:00:00 Is Europe Ready to Take Off? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

After the U.S.?s huge run, is it possible the country will be handing off the baton across the Atlantic for the next leg of the relay race? Here are a few areas of strength that could send European stocks higher.

2013-07-26 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Income inequality is rising, but its not clear what to do about it. Brazils struggles come at a delicate time. Detroits road to bankruptcy does not set a path for others to follow.

2013-07-25 00:00:00 A Midyear Update: Getting Back to Normal by Douglas Cote of ING Investment Management

Though markets were whipsawed by the announcement, the Feds plan to step aside and allow normalization is a good thing. Today, the primary risk for investors to hedge is economic growth and the strong equity returns it tends to produce not financial Armageddon. While risks in Europe and China persist, U.S. fundamentals look relatively strong. Two consecutive quarters of S&P 500 earnings growth prompts a forecast update.

2013-07-25 00:00:00 A One-Pillar Economy by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Despite blockbuster new home sales, higher interest rates have put downward pressure on housing activity. This is highly worrisome given the importance of housing to the health of the U.S. economy.

2013-07-25 00:00:00 Perspective by Jim McDonald of Northern Trust

Investors have faced a torrent of central bank actions and communications during the last month, and markets continue to differentiate among economies and companies a welcome maturation from the markets? prior regime of ?risk on/risk off.? We believe the Federal Reserve has moved from an easing bias to one of tightening but at an elongated pace that will remain data dependent. Joining in this parsimony are some key emerging-market central banks, including the People?s Bank of China, which is working to control credit risk in the Chinese economy.

2013-07-25 00:00:00 The Damage Potential of Rising Rates by Michael Temple of Pioneer Investments

The initial goals of the Federal Reserves Great Monetary Experiment to keep rates low, create negative real yields, spur consumption and cushion the budgetary consequences of fiscal stimulus have largely been accomplished. Investors could now face the threat of rising bond yields. Various bull and bear scenarios might ensue. What are they and what could trigger them? What are the risks to portfolios?

2013-07-24 00:00:00 Stocks and Bonds Both Again Rally as Bernanke Soothes by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments

Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes congressional testimony got more headlines, but Detroits long-anticipated formal filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy was by far the more important development. Billions of dollars of losses will be imposed on general obligation bondholders and/or retired employees.

2013-07-24 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

The secular low in bond yields has yet to be recorded. This assessment for a continuing pattern of lower yields in the quarters ahead is clearly a minority view, as the recent selling of all types of bond products attest. The rise in long term yields over the last several months was accelerated by the recent Federal Reserve announcement that it would be tapering its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. This has convinced many bond market participants that the low in long rates is in the past.

2013-07-24 00:00:00 Bursting of the Bond Bubble by Clyde Kendzierski of Financial Solutions Group

Our April newsletter focused on the extreme overvaluation in the bond market. I argued that money market funds (or cash) were likely to outperform bonds and bond funds over the next decade. In May I applied the same logic to US stock prices and the inherent fallacy in the prevailing TINA (there is no alternative to stocks) hypothesis. Although stocks are likely to outperform bonds over the next decade, both asset classes remain seriously overvalued. In a world of overvalued assets, zero return looks much better than large potential losses even when that means foregoing transitory

2013-07-23 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review Q2 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Trimming its forecast for global growth, the International Monetary Funds mid-year assessment of the world economy highlighted the slowdown in emerging economies such as Russia and recessionary conditions in the Euro-zone. Still, the recent surge in factory production and rise in new orders brought a whiff of optimism to emerging European markets such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, which have been reeling under a prolonged downturn due to weak demand from the Euro-zone.

2013-07-23 00:00:00 You Thought It Was Hot Outside... by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital

You thought it was hot outside? Wait until you see the weekly cash inflows into U.S. Equities... Funds that hold only U.S. stocks gained $15.58 billion in new cash, the most since June 2008. ETFs that hold domestic equities attracted $12.45 billion of those gains.

2013-07-22 00:00:00 Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review Q2 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Moderate growth is anticipated in Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) region as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) notes that economic expansion in the oil exporting countries has slowed down due to subdued global oil demand. While oil importing countries are expected to make a slight recovery, nations in transition are facing complex socio-political issues, which could further delay their recovery.

2013-07-19 00:00:00 Fixed Income Outlook by Team of Osterweis Capital Management

The question we keep asking is Will the real Fed mandate, please stand up? The Federal Reserve (the Fed) traditionally is charged with keeping inflation in check, but it also has a second mandate to ensure full employment. This dual mandate can occasionally create general confusion as to what is the best policy at a given time and which policy goal the Fed is trying to achieve. Today, we are at a juncture where the Feds mandates may not clearly align with stated future monetary actions.

2013-07-19 00:00:00 European Equities: Beyond the Headlines by Philippe Brugere-Trelat of Franklin Templeton Investments

Its fairly easy for investors to find reasons to shun European equities. While struggles in some Eurozone periphery countries continue to make eye-catching headlines, the broader story of Europe is far less fatalistic, according to Mutual Series Executive Vice President Philippe Brugere-Trelat, who manages the Mutual European Fund, Mutual Global Discovery Fund and Mutual International Fund. When it comes to Europe, he says one shouldnt throw out the baby with the bathwater, so to speak.

2013-07-19 00:00:00 Challenging a Long-Held Assumption about Commodities by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

It is widely accepted that China spurred higher commodity prices in the past decade. And if the country was the force behind the boom, then the assumption is that China?s lower, but still healthy growth will be a drag on commodity prices. But recent research challenges this assumption.

2013-07-16 00:00:00 Don't Be Deceived by the Deficit Dip by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Recent budget reports have been encouraging. Revenues are rising faster than originally expected, and deficits are running lower. Some of this improvement is real, but, sadly, not all of it.

2013-07-16 00:00:00 Investment Bulletin: Global Equity Strategy July by Team of Bedlam Asset Management

For the first half of the year, the 17.7% gain by the portfolio was 390 basis points better than the index; during June, market panic over potential changes in Fed policy resulted in a 3.0% fall in the index, with the portfolio down by a similar amount. US bond funds suffered a record $58 billion outflow during the month, 2%of their assets.

2013-07-15 00:00:00 Rock-A-Bye Baby by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Ive always thought that singing Rock-a-bye baby offers a bizarre lesson to our young, encouraging them to be lulled gently to sleep by describing a scene that should have them wide-eyed with terror.

2013-07-12 00:00:00 China's Very Relative Malaise by Francois Sicart of Tocqueville Asset Management

In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, looks at Chinas Very Relative Malaise, an observation which he describes as a vaguely uneasy feeling that seemed to be shared by most (Chinese) but not always for the same reasons.

2013-07-12 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

The view of Spains economy from the ground is no prettier than it is from distance. Not all forward guidance is created equal. Chinas suspension of key economic data raises, not quells, concern.

2013-07-12 00:00:00 Commodities 2013 Halftime Report: A Time to Mine for Opportunity? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

It was a challenging first half of the year for most commodities, with only two resources we track on our Periodic Table of Commodities Returns rising in value. Natural gas and oil rose 6.5 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while silver lost a third of its value and gold lost a quarter of its price from the beginning of the year.

2013-07-12 00:00:00 Calming Downand Changing Focus by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Markets are calming and investors seem to be focusing on fundamentals againa nice change from recent history. The bar is relatively low for earnings season but focus will be on the commentary surrounding releases. We believe more sideways movement in both US equities and Treasury yields could prevail over the next couple of months, with summer months muting action; but remain optimistic about stocks longer-term. Likewise, Japan could tread water until new elections are held, but we believe the eurozone provides opportunities that should be looked into at the expense of investments in China.

2013-07-11 00:00:00 Turmoil and Transition in China by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Tensions in Asia are rising, as China attempts to move toward a more market driven economy. This, combined with the ongoing ultra loose monetary conditions in Japan, has elevated the threat of a financial crisis in the region between now and the end of 2013.

2013-07-11 00:00:00 Prepare for the 1-2 Punch of Declining Earnings and Multiple Contraction by JJ Abodeely of Sitka Pacific Capital Management

The market today is counting on continued earnings growth driven in large part by ongoing quantitative easing without inflationary consequences. In a recent strategy letter, we show that the markets expectation for future earnings growth is overly optimistic based on the fact that earnings are currently more than 40% above the long-term trend and mean-reversion and history suggests that real earnings are likely to decline over the next 5 years.

2013-07-09 00:00:00 ENERGY MLPs: A Suitable and Sustainable Asset Class by Sponsored Content from ClearBridge Investments (Article)

Greater capitalization. More liquidity. The energy MLP market has grown steadily, with good reason: our constant demand for energy. While oil prices go up and down, volume has stayed consistent. Production is increasing. And the infrastructure is needed to support it. Add some risk, and you’ve got an investment which could fit in a diversified portfolio.

2013-07-09 00:00:00 High Yield Munis: Risky Business by Ryan Davis, Jingwei Lei of Fortigent

We shine a spotlight on the obscure market of high yield municipals this week. In the current fixed income selloff, the market has been among the worst performing with a drawdown of 6.1%. Investors could not get enough of the sector in 2012 as they chased yield; the Barclays high yield muni index returned over 18%. Investor sentiment has turned sharply, however, on this asset class. Funds experienced significant outflows over the last couple of months, which is especially troubling for a small and retail dominated market. Why did this onetime darling asset turn into a pariah so abruptly?

2013-07-09 00:00:00 The Fed's Bind: Tapering, Timetables and Turmoil by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

There are striking parallels between the dramatic recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and the Great Bond Crash of 1994. But the summer of volatility now facing financial markets is no doomsday scenario. Instead, it puts the U.S. Federal Reserve in a bind. Higher interest rates will reduce housing affordability, which is especially troublesome since housing is the primary locomotive of U.S. economic growth.

2013-07-09 00:00:00 Jobs, the Fed, and Long-Term Interest Rates by Scott Brown of Raymond James

The June Employment report showed a labor market that is far from fully recovered, but appears to be well on its way. Federal Reserve policymakers are not going to react to any one report, but the trend in nonfarm payrolls has remained strong. Is that enough to ease up on the gas pedal? Perhaps. However, it should still be some time before the Fed has to hit the brakes.

2013-07-08 00:00:00 Obamacare and Stocks by Brian Wesbury, Bob Stein of First Trust Advisors

For much of the past four years, we have felt like psychologists who constantly must help hypochondriacs over their fear of one thing after another. There is no reason to remind everyone of the list its been endless, but the stock market and the economy have moved consistently higher despite these fears.

2013-07-05 00:00:00 The Asian Giant Stampeding into Gold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

In this environment, gold should remain attractive. However, as the West flees the precious metal, another set of gold buyers has come forward with the aim to preserve wealth. Take a look at the chart below which shows total gold production compared to the gold deliveries on the COMEX and the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

2013-07-03 00:00:00 For Abenomics, the Hard Part Is Still to Come by Guy Bruten of AllianceBernstein

Prime Minister Shinzo Abes Abenomics program, designed to revive Japans economy, was a big success in its first five months, easily surpassing low expectations. But its drifted off course since it began, and the going is sure to get tougher from here. Still, its too early to write off this policy experiment.

2013-07-02 00:00:00 Do Dividend-Paying Stocks Have Staying Power? by Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson of Hartford Funds

The role of dividend-paying stocks in a diversified portfolio and the environment in which they are likely to outperform the broader equity market are often topics of debate among investors. I believe there are a number of reasons why a strategic allocation to dividend-paying stocks makes sense.

2013-07-01 00:00:00 Headlines, Patience, Pensions, Tax Collections, Income and Send a Letter! by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis

Muni Tax Exemption Justification Please: Back in the news. As Congress makes another run at overhauling the tax code, the Senate Finance Committee had a pretty good idea lets start with a blank slate when it comes to deductions, exemptions and credits. The Committee has asked Senators for proposals around deductions and exemptions and to support the same.

2013-07-01 00:00:00 All of the Above by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Market internals remain broken here. That may change, and it might even change soon. Until it does, we would be inclined to tread carefully, because this may be the highest level investors will see on the S&P 500 for quite some time. Choosing between potential catalysts - credit strains in China, the risk of disappointing earnings, or economic weakness, the incoming data is consistent with one conclusion: all of the above.

2013-06-28 00:00:00 Reviewing the Dividend Sell-Off by Jeff Middleswart of Ranger International

Higher yielding stocks outperformed for much of this year, but fell sharply with the pop in interest rates.

2013-06-28 00:00:00 Stay the Course As Mixed Signals Move Markets by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

We maintain that gold is in extremely oversold territory and mathematically due for a reversal toward the mean. Yet when gold prices plummet, fear takes over and some investors forget the fundamental reasons to own gold: Gold is a portfolio diversifier and a store of value. It is a finite resource with increasing global demand.

2013-06-28 00:00:00 China's Near-Term Macro Outlook by Team of Nomura Asset Management

The key message from the recent Shibor volatility is that the Chinese government is now willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while carrying out reform to rebalance the economy for long term sustainable growth. The diminishing demographic dividend as a result of the aging population and One-Child Policy will result in slower potential growth for the economy.

2013-06-28 00:00:00 The New, Old Normal by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

We believe the recent volatility will be relatively short lived and provides an opportunity for investors who need to adjust their portfolios to do sowith long-term goals in mind. The risks associated with fixed income have been illustrated over the past couple of weeks and rising yields have caused equity volatility and a pullback. But we remain optimistic about US equities as well as developed international markets; particularly relative to emerging markets.

2013-06-28 00:00:00 Inflation Lags Monetary Expansion: Prepare to be Swindled by JJ Abodeely of Sitka Pacific Capital Management

In May 1977, the consumer price index (CPI), which measures a basket of consumer goods in the U.S. economy, had risen 6.7% from the year before. The indexes had doubled over the previous 15 years, and by 1977 investors were fully aware that the rate of change was increasingi.e. the inflation rate was spiraling higher. By then, this inflationary awareness had worked its way into every corner of the financial markets, as commodities, gold and interest rates rose, and the stock market remained in a deep funk.

2013-06-28 00:00:00 Investment Bulletin: Global Equity Strategy by Team of Bedlam Asset Management

For the first five months of the year the global portfolio enjoyed a net gain of 21.0%, 350 basis points better than the index, edging ahead further in May. Recent smoke signals from the Federal Reserve Bank implying - subject to a wide range of get-out clauses that less money might be put into the system, have caused market hysterics. Bond investors have rightly been stampeding out, ending a 32-year old bull market. Its longevity had caused dangerous complacency and overexposure, especially to illiquid and expensive emerging market debt through open-ended vehicles.

2013-06-27 00:00:00 Policy-Induced Volatility Continues by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The recent bond market collapse is reminiscent of the Great Crash of 1994. Further pressure on the economy due to rising interest rates could cause the Fed to revisit its timetable for QE.

2013-06-27 00:00:00 Commodities: Still Worried About Supply by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management

Golds 2013 fall has been the lone development in the two-year commodities decline that seems to have captured much attention. The CRB Raw Industrialsa spot index of 13 commodities exhibiting a much tighter linkage to the global economy than goldpeaked in mid-April 2011, coinciding with the bull market relative strength highs in the both S&P 500 Energy and Materials sectors and the absolute price highs in the MSCI stock market indexes of commodity exporters Brazil, Canada and Russia.

2013-06-27 00:00:00 Currency Wars: A Case for the U.S. Dollar by Gibson Smith, Chris Diaz of Janus Capital Group

In recent years, the U.S. dollar has tended to lose value when the global economy improves, as investors are more willing to take risks. We believe that pattern has changed and that the U.S. dollar will outperform the Japanese yen, the euro and the British pound over the medium term, even if the global economy continues to improve. In our view, current conditions justify a material deviation in currency exposure compared with certain global fixed income benchmarks, such as the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index.

2013-06-26 00:00:00 Win Ben's Money by Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management

From 1997 to 2003 a show called, Win Ben Steins Money ran on the Comedy Central Network. The last five years, investors in the US have been playing a very similar game we are calling, Win Bens Money. The new game stars Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Ben Bernanke. The object is to win the money the Fed creates via Quantitative Easing (QE) through macroeconomic analysis. In this missive, we will look at how these investors chased Bens Money and consider what to do going forward.

2013-06-26 00:00:00 June 2013 Float Shrink Review by TrimTabs Asset Management of AdvisorShares

Sharing some commentary from our friends at TrimTabs, which summarizes a few changes in the investment landscape that may give you an indication of what to expect following Mays sell in May and go away trading adage. TrimTabs research focuses on fund flows and float shrink. They believe the market is heavily influenced by what people and institutions are doing with their dollars. You can read more about the research behind float shrink at

2013-06-26 00:00:00 Trampled By the Crowd? Logic Briefly Abandoned Creates Opportunity by Scott Colyer of Advisors Asset Management

The past two week slide in asset prices has caused a resurgence of doomsday pundits warning of impending calamity. The negative interpretation of Fed Chairman Bernankes comments regarding the U.S.economys future upgraded prospects is simply not logical. A careful review of what Bernanke said at his press conference was entirely consistent with what the Fed has said and done in the past.

2013-06-26 00:00:00 2 Ways to Play the US Energy Boom by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Russ offers two ideas one perhaps obvious and one perhaps not for investors looking to potentially benefit from the US energy renaissance.

2013-06-24 00:00:00 The Fed Unintentionally Lays an Egg by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities declined last week as the S&P 500 ended down 2.09%.1 The S&P suffered the first back-to-back one-day declines of more than 1% since last November. Global equities and bonds were also hit hard, with large sell-offs in emerging market assets, commodities and commodity currencies. Concerns about the fallout from dampened Fed policy accommodation are driving the weakness.

2013-06-21 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

Today, the relative health of banks around the world goes a long way toward explaining differences in economic fortunes. As policy-makers seek ways to improve growth, addressing structural issues in their financial systems may be more effective than monetary or fiscal stimulus.

2013-06-21 00:00:00 What's an Investor to do in Markets like These? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

What should an investor do after a day like yesterday? Stay calm and invest on, as I believe there is opportunity in picking up what the bears left behind. Here are a few ideas to ponder.

2013-06-19 00:00:00 The Trouble with Tapering by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Rising interest rates are beginning to put pressure on the recovery in the housing market, which will affect economic output. This reduces the likelihood that the Fed will taper QE in 2013, and could even lead it to signal a possible expansion or extension of the current policies.

2013-06-19 00:00:00 Changes in our Asset Allocation by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

We believe that valuations in publicly traded securities are stretched, and, although we have seen a move higher in interest rates and stocks have sold off from their high levels, investors are faced with choices that offer generally lower expected returns based on historic measures of return. Today, with the S&P 500 hitting 1650 and the yield on the 10 year US Treasury Note moving abruptly from 1.70% to 2.15%, there are generally two schools of thought on the minds of investors.

2013-06-19 00:00:00 Pride: In the Name of the US Manufacturing/Energy Renaissance by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Manufacturing/energy renaissance in the United States is a long-term theme; not a short-term trade but its underway. The list of companies "reshoring" to the United States are powerful and growing. Can the United States become a global exporting powerhouse?

2013-06-18 00:00:00 Three Time Bombs that Threaten Retirement Plans by Dan Richards (Article)

Three poorly understood developments threaten secure retirements ? without wishing to be alarmist, I will call them time bombs. These developments will change the retirement dynamic for many Americans: increasing lifespans, escalating medical costs as people age and safe withdrawal rates on savings dropping from historical levels.

2013-06-18 00:00:00 The Snowden Affair by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Over the past two weeks, revelations published in The Guardian and the Washington Post reported on a massive data gathering program that the National Security Agency (NSA) has been operating since 2001. The NSA, created during the Truman administration, mostly monitors signal intelligence and is the primary cryptographer for the U.S. government.

2013-06-17 00:00:00 2013 Midyear Economic Update -- Another False Dawn? by Paul Kasriel of Econtrarian, LLC

Weve seen this movie before since midyear 2009, havent we? The pace of economic activity begins to quicken and it looks as though a full-throated cyclical expansion might finally be at hand, only to have the economy slip back into the doldrums. Nominal private domestic spending on currently-produced goods and services grew in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 5.5% compared to 3.4% in the previous quarter. Consumer spending accelerated, housing sales picked up and business spending on equipment and software continued to grow at a healthy pace.

2013-06-17 00:00:00 Equities: As Companies Reinvest, the Long-Term View Turns Bullish by Ron Sloan of Invesco

This is the third in a three-part series on the economy, earnings and equities. The first two posts examined the US Federal Reserves gross domestic product (GDP) goals and how they set the stage for businesses to increase their capital expenditures. This post discusses the US manufacturing resurgence and the outlook for equities.

2013-06-14 00:00:00 Looking for Growth? Go Small and Global by Liliana Castillo Dearth, Bruce Aronow of AllianceBernstein

In the hunt for growth in todays low-growth world, up-and-coming small- and mid-sized companies are a good place to start. But you need to look everywhere, from Indiana to Indonesia.

2013-06-14 00:00:00 Global Small Cap Investing: Unconstrained Opportunities by Blake Pontius of William Blair

Equity asset allocations have become more global in recent years as investors have sought to reduce the long standing home country bias in their portfolios. Further propelling this trend has been the growing aversion to traditional asset class structures and indeed, conventional asset class definitions, in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 global fi nancial crisis. Against this backdrop, global equity strategies have continued to garner asset fl ows in Europe and have slowly begun to gain traction in the U.S. after years of tepid demand.

2013-06-14 00:00:00 A Sweet Find on an African Adventure by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The heart of Africa has been beating strong in recent years due to elevated commodity prices and resilient domestic demand, despite the global economic slowdown. Among the sub-Saharan African countries, Sierra Leone was the fastest growing country last year, according to the World Bank. Its economy experienced growth that is as rare today as Fancy Red diamonds. GDP increased a whopping 18 percent.

2013-06-12 00:00:00 Who Is Your Daddy and What Does He Do? by Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management

In the 1990 movie Kindergarten Cop, Arnold Schwarzenegger portrayed a police officer who goes undercover as John Kimble, a kindergarten teacher in Astoria, OR. Early in the movie, Mr. Kimble tells his class they are going to play a game called Who is your daddy and what does he do? After a myriad of answers, one of the children asks him if his ensuing headache is a tumor. Kimble replies Its not a tumor. We at Smead Capital Management believe this was not only one of the more comical moments of Kindergarten Cop, but also a great question to ponder in today&rs

2013-06-11 00:00:00 Gundlach ? Dont Sell Your Bonds by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Dont sell your bonds just yet, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Global economic growth is slowing, he said, and the U.S. will be competing for a larger slice of a shrinking worldwide pie. A weaker economy dims the prospects for higher interest rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ? currently 2.08% ? will be 1.70% by the end of the year, according to Gundlach, providing profits for holders of long-term bonds.

2013-06-11 00:00:00 How Asia's Growth Transitions and Policy Experiments Are Shaping the Global Outlook by Ramin Toloui, Tomoya Masanao, Robert Mead of PIMCO

Our view is that Chinese GDP growth will downshift, averaging 6%-7.5% for the next five years as net exports and investment are reaching their limits. In Asia, Japan is perhaps the economy closest to the T-junction described in PIMCOs global secular outlook: The destination of Japans journey looks increasingly uncertain, with multiple potential outcomes that could stabilize or destabilize the global economy and markets.

2013-06-10 00:00:00 What's Capping Capital Spending? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Now that housing has at last begun to make a contribution to the economic recovery, the pace of capital spending seems to have ebbed. To some extent, the slowed pace of such spending reasonably reflects the economys still-more-than-ample production capacity. Reasonable as this seems, the slowdown does come as a disappointing change from the unusually strong growth earlier in the recovery. Now, looking forward, the prospect is for this slowed growth to continue, for a while at least.

2013-06-07 00:00:00 As Economy Heats Up, Will Commodities? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Dont wait for the Fed to officially raise rates, as research shows that investors get the most benefit from materials and energy stocks by getting in now

2013-06-06 00:00:00 The Fed's Dilemma by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Market volatility is rising as the Fed continues with its asset purchase program. The economy also appears increasingly vulnerable to a rise in interest rates, which would have an adverse effect on housing in particular.

2013-06-06 00:00:00 The Risk of Government Policies and the Rationing of Retirement by Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates

In late April, a group of leading economists and investment practitioners assembled in La Jolla, California, for Research Affiliates 2013 Advisory Panel. Our theme this year touched on two topics that have been front-and-center in recent public debates: the risk of government intervention and the potential rationing of retirement.

2013-06-06 00:00:00 More Than a Feeling by Team of AdvisorShares

Tangible signs of fundamental weakness are appearing everywhere, yet financial market participants are simply choosing to ignore these signs. There remains a significant disconnect between the real economy and financial markets. Read this paper by Peritus Asset Management to learn how to navigate the weak fundamental picture in what they believe to be the beginning of a 15-20 year positive technical backdrop, which will put yield generating assets, such as high yield bonds, in the sweet spot.

2013-06-06 00:00:00 June Economic Update by Justin Anderson of Cambridge Advisors

Stocks sold off on the last day of the month but still managed to finish higher in May with the large-cap S&P 500 index up 2.2% and the small-cap Russell 2000 up 4.0%. International stocks finished the month lower with the MSCI EAFE index down -2.9%. Bond prices came under significant pressure as yields rose after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that Quantitative Easing may be tapered off sooner than the market expected. The 10-Year US Treasury Yield rose sharply to end the month at 2.16%.

2013-06-05 00:00:00 Certainty, Rates and the Year Ahead by Peritus Asset Management of AdvisorShares

The government tells us not to worry, as the Federal Reserve comes to rescue with QE-Forever. Certainty with fiscal policy doesnt seem to change the demand equation and cheapened money doesnt do anything if demand isnt present. Treasury rates remain at 0% for the foreseeable future making yield hard to find. Read this position paper by Peritus Asset Management scrutinizing how all this has come to pass and what indicators are foretelling the near future effects on the high yield asset class.

2013-06-05 00:00:00 The Canary in the Coal Mine by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Ongoing monetary stimulus is leading to heightened volatility, and the bull market which has been in place since 2009 is becoming overextended. The recent string of surprise downside moves in markets may be the canary in the coal mine for global investors.

2013-06-05 00:00:00 Driving with the Doors Off, Part II by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover, Mike Czekaj of Broadleaf Partners

About ten months ago, I wrote about my new bulldozer-yellow Jeep Wrangler, comparing the sensation of Driving with the Doors Off to investing in the New Normal, or as I like to call it, a slow growth for as far as the eyes can see environment. While the pavement had always been a mere twelve inches beneath my feet, Driving with The Doors Off made the experience far more real, far more alive, and far more aware of the risks that had always been there. In the New Normal it feels like we are always and everywhere just one small pothole away from the next economic disaster.

2013-06-04 00:00:00 Woody Brocks Challenge to Krugman and the Keynesians by Bob Veres (Article)

A polarizing choice confronts policymakers. Either they side with Paul Krugman and the Keynesians, and advocate for aggressive fiscal measures to stimulate Americas economic growth rate, or they align themselves with the so-called austerians, who argue that budget cutbacks are necessary to eliminate deficits. A third option is rarely discussed. Its most outspoken proponent, Horace Woody Brock, says that America should continue to borrow, but spend wisely ? and develop new policy instruments that would eliminate asset bubbles and stimulate economic activity.

2013-06-04 00:00:00 Vincent Reinhart on Debt and Growth in the U.S. and Japan by Robert Huebscher (Article)

High debt levels translate to slower growth, according to Vincent Reinhart. That conclusion will be disheartening to those who jumped on the errors several University of Massachusetts scholars found last month in Carmen Reinhart (Vincent’s wife) and Ken Rogoff’s research. But Vincent Reinhart is the author, along with his wife and Rogoff, of a study published in 2012 that documented the degree to which high debt-to-GDP levels correlate with slower economic growth in developed countries.

2013-06-04 00:00:00 Wounded Heart by Bill Gross of PIMCO

Joseph Schumpeter, the originator of the phrase creative destruction, authored a less well-known corollary at some point in the 1930s. Profit, he wrote, is temporary by nature: It will vanish in the subsequent process of competition and adaptation. And so it has, certainly at the micro level for which his remark was obviously intended. Once proud, seemingly indestructible capitalistic giants have seen their profits fall short of everlasting and exhibited a far more ephemeral character.

2013-06-04 00:00:00 Finding Healthy Stocks in Europe's Troubled Landscape by Tawhid Ali of AllianceBernstein

European equity markets continue to face severe stress as the continent struggles to contain fallout from the sovereign-debt crisis. Yet this seemingly toxic environment is creating some exceptional investment opportunities in relatively healthy companies that can control their own destinies.

2013-06-03 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

And the streak continues. (The monthly winning streak that is.) While stocks have drifted lower each of the past two weeks, the Dow has surged for six straight months and the S&P 500 now stands at seven and counting. In fact, much of the weeks losses came in the final hour(s) of trading as investors took profits for the month and positioned their portfolios for the summer. No news from the Fed yet, but the bond debates continue. Housing remains strong on the economic front, but next weeks data will go a long way toward setting the tone for the future.

2013-06-03 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Recent history has shown us that when investors feel prosperous their spending habits become more robust. Sometimes they even throw caution to the wind and splurge on discretionary purchases they previously sought to avoid or postpone. Such is the nature of a rapidly changing landscape that what previously had been a vulnerability now becomes a necessity. The impact of financial decision-making can have a manic effect upon virtually any part of the world. This is why crises become epidemics, and cures become panacea.

2013-06-03 00:00:00 Defense and Selective Offense by Mark Kiesel of PIMCO

Given the markets newfound risk appetite for credit and less attractive valuations, we are taking advantage of global credit market liquidity in an effort to reduce our overall risk posture. In our selective offense approach, we continue to favor U.S. housing and housing-related areas, in addition to select investments in the energy, pipeline, specialty finance, gaming, hospitals, and airline and auto industries, given the more positive fundamental outlook for these sectors.

2013-06-03 00:00:00 US Balance Sheet Repair: More Difficult This Time by John Greenwood of Invesco

In most developed economies, the post-war years since 1945 saw sustained business cycle expansions alternating with shorter recessions. At the end of each expansion, authorities dealt with inflation by raising interest rates and slowing credit growth. When inflation subsided, interest rates were lowered again.

2013-05-31 00:00:00 Into the Woods by Tony Crescenzi, Tadashi Kakuchi, Ben Emons of PIMCO

Excess liquidity, falling net issuance and higher correlations among assets complicate the eventual exit that the Federal Reserve and other central banks must make from their extraordinary policies. The Bank of Japans ideology has completely changed to tackling deflation from tolerating deflation. The key focus in the coming months will be how private sectors react. Investors who depend chiefly upon central bank activism may put themselves at risk. They may need to hedge volatility by ensuring their investments are built more on solid fundamentals and reasona

2013-05-31 00:00:00 What's the Answer to Unprecedented Policies and Ultralow Rates? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

So what?s the answer to unprecedented central bank policies that have been driving stocks higher and ultralow rates? I believe investors need to stick to a strategy that includes dividend-paying stocks that offer the opportunity for both income and growth.

2013-05-30 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

All good things must come to an end (hopefully just temporarily). After a nice month-long weekly winning streak, stocks gave back some ground as investors over-analyzed Fed comments and worried about future monetary policy. (The stimulus will end at some pointthats not necessarily a bad thing.) Japan took the over-analysis the hardest as its market suffered a serious setback, though the rally for the year had been significant and some watchers expected a pullback at some point (just not all in one day).

2013-05-30 00:00:00 UK Secular Outlook - Morphing into the Carney Era by Mike Amey of PIMCO

The UK remains in a stable disequilibrium, one that needs to either transform into growing economy with narrowing income differentials or risk a more aggressive policy response. Financial repression, protection of real purchasing power, tail risks of accelerated currency weakness and price sensitivity will likely dominate UK markets over the secular horizon. Investors may consider progressively reducing exposure to assets susceptible to tail risks. Higher quality short-dated income-generating, inflation-hedging and non-sterling assets remain attractive.

2013-05-30 00:00:00 Are We There Yet? by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

I started writing my first book, Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets, in 2005; finished it in 2007; and published the second, an abridged version of the first (The Little Book of Sideways Markets), in 2010. In both books I made the case that there is a very high probability that we are in the midst of a secular sideways market a market that goes up and down, with a lot of cyclical volatility, but ends up going nowhere for a long time.

2013-05-30 00:00:00 Reflation in the Balance by Richard Clarida of PIMCO

Four of the worlds major central banks are now all in when it comes to ballooning their balance sheets in correlated, if not coordinated, efforts to achieve escape velocity in their economies. In accounting for the impact of quantitative easing on two key balance sheets, we are able to interpret, monitor and calibrate the programs currently in place. This in turn can help us prepare portfolios if or when sentiments and inflation expectations shift.

2013-05-29 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management

Last week we talked about the market being overbought in the short term, so the three day selloff (Wednesday-Friday) was to be expected. The media will blame the Fed but they didnt tell us anything we didnt already know. Bottom line, when the market gets extremely overbought traders will use anything and everything as an excuse to take profits. Interestingly, last week was the first streak of three down days this year. The S&P 500 seemed to find some support at 1640.

2013-05-28 00:00:00 Europe's Crossroads: The End of the Muddle Through? by Andrew Balls of PIMCO

The eurozone may be nearing a critical junction, owing to its weak growth, weak institutions, debt dynamics and domestic and cross-border political challenges. The German government may take a more active leadership role after its national election, but it is more likely it will continue with piecemeal measures. Considering the current low yield environment and ample central bank liquidity, it is important to focus on absolute yield levels and returns, and consider global alternatives such as emerging market securities and currency exposure.

2013-05-28 00:00:00 Watching Risk-Reward Ratios: Economic Data Still PositiveBut Rate Is Slowing by Rob Stein of Astor Asset Management

Risk-reward ratios are on our radar screen these days as we review the most recent economic data against the backdrop of recent market movement. This is not to say that we are in any way suggesting a top, a bear market, or even that a correction is on the horizon, even taking into account this past weeks movement and volatilityalthough each of these scenarios remains a possibility. At this point, though, we do have some minor concerns about risk-reward in the markets going forward, suggesting that a slight adjustment in beta or equity exposure from current levels is prudent.

2013-05-28 00:00:00 You Now Have All of Our Attention by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital

Mr. Bernankes opening statement was just what the market wanted to hear... "Premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending this economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further".

2013-05-24 00:00:00 The Love Trade for Gold is Still On! by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The more important demand for gold, in my opinion, comes from the enduring Love Trade, as countries like China and India buy the precious metal out of love and tradition.

2013-05-24 00:00:00 Bifurcation Blues by Herbert and Randall Abramson of Trapeze Asset Management

Bifurcation. A very technical sounding word. It merely means ?a division into two parts?, which is what we are witnessing in many areas related to investment, both macro and micro. And it is exhibiting to value investors those areas to avoid and the most attractive to embrace. And giving rise to a wide range of disparate opinions among economic and investment professionals as to what outcomes are likely. Needless to say, we have our own strong views.

2013-05-22 00:00:00 Cyprus and the Eurozone...Still Stuck in the Middle by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

The debt crisis in the Eurozone turned another chapter as Cyprus finally reached the point of requiring a bailout from the European Union. The wisdom of Gerry Raffertys hit song Stuck in the Middle with You which was written in 1973, rings true today as we watch the EU and the European Central Bank navigate the mess in Europe. With each attempt at containment, there appears some plot twist, the proposed Cyprus bank bailout is no exception. While the bailout of Cyprus and its banks is not large in size, only 10 billion, relative to the Cyprus economy, it is significant.

2013-05-22 00:00:00 Asia Brief: China's Car Fleet The Largest in the World? by Edmund Harriss, James Weir of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management

Car sales in China have grown rapidly since 2009 and it is on course to outstrip the US in terms of the size of its car fleet by the end of this decade. This presents a major challenge to the Chinese government, which must balance its peoples happiness and political stability with economic development in an environment which has already been compromised. The momentum of demand for new passenger vehicles is likely to make air quality worse and Beijing has introduced emissions and efficiency standards to address the problem.

2013-05-22 00:00:00 Malaysia's Post-Election Investment Outlook by Scott Klimo of Saturna Capital

Earlier this year we identified ASEAN as the most attractive region within the emerging markets universe. That prediction has proved accurate. Market indices (USD returns) year-to-date through April in the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are 23%, 22%, and 16%, respectively. Singapore (which we do not consider an emerging market) gained 6%, while Malaysia rose only 3.9%. So whats the outlook for Malaysia?

2013-05-21 00:00:00 (Yawn)...As Equities Advance Another 2% by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities advanced again last week, with the S&P 500 increasing 2.1%. Global stocks are reaching new highs in this cycle and the U.S. market is at an all-time high. Bonds were hurt in the move, dragging credit down, while commodities fell slightly on weaker manufacturing data. The unrelenting equity rally and an environment without positive news about earnings and the economy is making many investors uncomfortable.

2013-05-21 00:00:00 Developed Europe: Regional Economic Review 1Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

After withdrawing into the background in late 2012, the Euro-zone sovereign debt crisis resurfaced in the first quarter with the Italian elections and Cyprus banking crisis. In late February, Italys national elections resulted in a fractured mandate, and Italians voted out the incumbent, the main architect of the countrys austerity and reforms agenda.

2013-05-21 00:00:00 Capitalism and Democracy by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

In the Italian elections, the party that showed the strongest results was the Five Star Movement, led by the comedian Beppe Grillo. Despite this strong showing, the party failed to form a government and refused to participate in any coalitions. This decision not to participate in the political process has been exhibited by other protest groups, such as Occupy Wall Street, the Israeli Tent Movement, and the Spanish Indignant movement.

2013-05-21 00:00:00 Are Equity Investors Pushing the Gas Pedal Too Hard? by Norman Boersma of Franklin Templeton Investments

Whatever previous reticence investors may have had about equities last year seems to have evaporated and, with remarkable speed, turned into fear over having missed the equity rally. Some major market averages have accelerated at a pace some say is reckless, so as we head toward the mid-point of the year, Norm Boersma, CFA, chief investment officer of Templeton Global Equity Group, takes a look at reasons investors might continue to push the gas pedalor tap the brakes.

2013-05-20 00:00:00 Not in Kansas Anymore by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Knowing where you are doesnt mean that youre leaving, but you should still know where you are.

2013-05-18 00:00:00 All Japan, All the Time by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

This week we again focus on Japan. Their stock market has been on a tear, and their economy grew 3.5% last quarter. Is Abenomics really the answer to all their problems? Is it just a matter of turning the monetary dial a little higher and voila, there is growth? Why doesnt everyone try that? And what would happen if they did?

2013-05-17 00:00:00 Making the Most of Equity Allocations by Andrew Pyne, Sabrina Callin of PIMCO

We believe slowing global growth and deleveraging are likely to result in lower long-term returns for equities. Traditional approaches to building equity portfolios may not be enough for investors to meet their return goals. We have found three complementary ways investors can enhance equity return potential: fundamental indexes, index-plus strategies and high active share stock selection approaches.

2013-05-17 00:00:00 Finding Opportunity Far and Near by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Would it surprise you to learn that a vast majority of equity valuation models state that stocks should head much higher over the next five years?

2013-05-16 00:00:00 Saving for College: A Family Affair by Team of Franklin Templeton Investments

The language of personal finance isnt especially racy, but debt certainly has taken on the negative tone of other four-letter words. Even so, with college costs on the rise and many parents feeling especially pinched in this challenging economic environment, student loans rather than college savings have become the solution for many.

2013-05-16 00:00:00 Hold Your Houses: The Housing Recovery May Take Longer Than You Think To Reach Consumers by Joshua Anderson, Emmanuel S. Sharef, Grover Burthey of PIMCO

New residential construction needs to double from 2012 levels to meet long-run stable demand, and the pace of that increase is critical. Consumer credit growth is hindered by strict lending standards, continued deleveraging and limits to mortgage equity withdrawal. As a result, the balance of mortgage debt is unlikely to meaningfully increase in the next 12-18 months, delaying a return of the virtuous consumer cycle.

2013-05-15 00:00:00 Consumers: The Great Sobriety by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Americans have cut debt, boosted savings, and held spending in checkall of which should aid the economy.

2013-05-14 00:00:00 Is Kyle Bass Wrong About Japan? by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Its standard practice for short sellers to kick dirt on their targets, and Kyle Bass is doing just that by asserting that Japans economy is on the verge of a financial crisis. In a talk on May 3, he said that Japans demise is imminent. So far, though, Bass has been wrong ? and he has his detractors, who are far less certain of Japans destiny.

2013-05-14 00:00:00 Guide to Working with Monetary Napalm by Scott Colyer of Advisors Asset Management

Napalm is a highly incendiary form of jellied fuel. It was used extensively in the Vietnam War to quickly ignite massive fires over large areas of land. In the world of financial incendiaries, the Feds overwhelming monetary stimulus has ignited asset prices in the United States with the force and effectiveness of napalm. Is the fire short lived? Are the gains in asset prices temporary or can they be believed? Are the housing and stock markets on fire just because of the Feds quantitative easing (QE) or could there be a much more fundamental reason?

2013-05-14 00:00:00 Cyclical and Emerging Market Strength May Be Pointing to Better Growth by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Last week U.S. equities advanced as the S&P 500 increased by 1.3%. We have been amazed bythe markets ability to continue to rally in an environment in which sales growth has been anemic and earnings gains have been largely based on companies abilities to manage margins and utilize financial engineering.

2013-05-13 00:00:00 Closing Arguments: Nothing Further, Your Honor by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Nothing further, your honor. I am resting my case.

2013-05-13 00:00:00 Tenuous Times? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

US stocks continue to make new highs, yet commodities have struggled and Treasury yields remain low, albeit up from recent near-record lows. Although not the standard playbook, we remain optimistic but acknowledge an equity pullback can occur at any time. Manufacturing data has been soft, the employment picture is mixed, and housing continues to improve. The European Central Bank (ECB) has joined the easing arty, illustrating the continued disappointments coming out of the eurozone.

2013-05-13 00:00:00 The Cash Conundrum by Ric Dillon of Diamond Hill Investments

In an effort to keep interest rates low, the Federal Reserve, along with other global central banks, is flooding the financial markets with liquidity. This additional liquidity is pushing prices for most financial and real assets higher. At some point, the Feds policy of easing will end and in some ways will be reversed. Purchases of government-backed securities may end this year (QE3); however, the Fed has signaled that the near zero interest rate policy for Fed Funds is likely to continue into 2015.

2013-05-13 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review 1Q 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Weaker global demand and prices for energy and commodities, as well as softer than expected domestic consumption have restricted the growth outlook for most economies in the Americas region during the first three months of the year. Fewer monthly job additions in the U.S. have dented consumer confidence, and growth for the current year is now forecast to be moderately lower than earlier expectations.

2013-05-10 00:00:00 A Tale of Two Markets: Equity Bulls and Bond Bears by Douglas Cote of ING Investment Management

Surging equity markets absent an accompanying rate rally is a red flag, as Treasury yields remain well below normal. While investors renewed enthusiasm for equities is warranted, they must be careful to avoid the folly of gaming diversification. Corporate earnings have impressed, though revenue has struggled due in part to a moribund Europe. Divergent markets mean investors should stay broadly diversified in equities and real bonds not near-cash and ever alert to the fundamentals.

2013-05-10 00:00:00 2013 US Financial Markets: Part 2 - The TINA Hypothesis by Clyde Kendzierski of Financial Solutions Group

Contrary to the Bernanke Illusion (money market funds are a zero return investment), history indicates that money market funds are likely to provide investors with returns approximating inflation over the next decade. As I pointed out in our last letter, the markets are pricing in inflation levels significantly higher than the prospective total returns of 10 year TBonds. The small additional return achieved by corporate bonds or US stocks (at current prices) is unlikely to compensate a buy and hold investor with sufficient gains to justify the interim risks.

2013-05-10 00:00:00 Symptoms Don't Lie by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

A good doctor will not simply make a diagnosis based on measurements. The symptoms and complaints expressed by the patient are at least as important in making a determination as the data provided by diagnostic tools. When the data says one thing and the symptoms continuously say another, it makes sense to question the reliability of the instruments. This would be particularly true if the instruments are furnished by a party with a stake in a favorable diagnosis, say an insurance company on the hook for treatment costs. The same holds true for the U.S. economy.

2013-05-10 00:00:00 The U.S. Economy Stands to Gain from Actions of Central Banks by Team of Northern Trust

Recent central bank meetings have resulted in a reiteration of accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and new initiatives from its counterparts overseas.

2013-05-09 00:00:00 Make Way for the MIPS by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Emerging markets still provide excellent opportunities for outperformance in equities, with Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore being among the best positioned for the decade ahead.

2013-05-08 00:00:00 Germany Under Pressure To Create Money by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

Currently, central banks around the world are walking in lock step down a dangerous path of money creation. Led by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, economic policy is driven by the idea that printed money can be the true basis of growth. The result is an unprecedented global orgy of currency creation. The only holdout to this open ended commitment has been the hard money bias of the German-dominated European Central Bank. However, growing political pressure from around the world, and growing dissatisfaction among domestic voters have shaken, and perhaps cracked, the German resolve.

2013-05-08 00:00:00 Deflation Is OverPlease Come Out by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms, Mike Mata of ING Investment Management

A blooper reel of 20th century history would likely include a feature on Japanese soldier Hiro Onoda. Posted to a small island in the Philippines during the waning days of World War II, when Onodas mission proved unsuccessful he was ultimately forced to flee into the woods, where he survived on a steady diet of coconuts and bananasfor almost 30 years after the end of the war.

2013-05-08 00:00:00 Are Investors Breathing a Sigh of Relief? by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Last week U.S. equities delivered another gain as the S&P 500 increased by 2.0%.1 On Friday, the U.S. jobs report offered relief from fears of an accelerating weakness caused by prior softness during this time in each of the last three years. However, the full set of economic data for the week supports our view of a slower second quarter in a post-sequestration environment.

2013-05-08 00:00:00 Absolute Return Letter: In the Long Run We Are All in Trouble by Niels Jensen, Nick Rees,Tricia Ward of Absolute Return Partners

In the long run we are all dead, said Keynes. Maybe so, but we could be in trouble long before then. Investors appear preoccupied with central bank policy. We argue that investors are quite right in keeping their eye on the ball but, to us, it looks as if they are focusing on the wrong ball. The real worries for the long term are demographics and negative real interest rates and the effect these factors may have on equity returns.

2013-05-07 00:00:00 Niall Ferguson: Four Reasons Why the U.S. is Failing by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Niall Ferguson is the champion of anti-Keynesian economists. Last week, he explained why America’s pursuit of Keynesian policies is leading to disastrous consequences.

2013-05-07 00:00:00 Mutual Fund Companies Need to Prepare for a Changing Environment Fund Industry Turbulence Ahead by Paul Franchi (Article)

The mutual fund industry grew explosively from the 1980s on a rare tonic of a low-inflation credit expansion powered indirectly by international trade flows. That run reached a peak in 2008 when the application of quantitative easing (QE) served to prevent industry collapse with a softer form of transition, which continues today but must end when inflation returns.

2013-05-07 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

The trend is your friend (and the current trend is a friend with benefits for investors). After a record-setting first quarter for stocks, analysts were skeptical that the party would continue. And yet, the Dow Jones enjoyed a fifth straight month of gains in April, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq one-upped the Blue Chips with six month winning streaks.

2013-05-07 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

Financial markets got the news they wanted last week as Europe cut interest rates, while here at home the Federal Reserve hinted they might do even more when it comes to money printing. To top it off, Fridays employment report showed improvement from March although the details caused most to discount the excitement.

2013-05-07 00:00:00 Quarterly Letter by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management

In his April 2013 commentary, PIMCOs Bill Gross wrote, PIMCOs epoch1, Berkshire Hathaways epoch, Peter Lynchs epoch, all occurred or have occurred within an epoch of credit expansion What if an epoch changes? What if perpetual credit expansion and its fertilization of asset prices and returns are substantially altered? What if a future epoch favors lower than index carry or continual bouts of 2008 Lehmanesque volatility ?

2013-05-06 00:00:00 Aligning Market Exposure With the Expected Return/Risk Profile by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Some risks and market conditions are more rewarding than others. My objectives for this weeks comment are very specific. First, to demonstrate using a very simple model that investment returns do indeed vary systematically with market conditions. Second, to demonstrate that overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions have historically dominated trend-following measures when they have emerged. Third, to demonstrate the impact of accepting investment exposure in proportion to the return/risk profile that is associated with a given set of market conditions.

2013-05-03 00:00:00 Job Creation May Be More Robust Than Official Statistics Suggest. by Team of Northern Trust

Job creation may be more robust than official statistics suggest; U.S. employment situation; Central bank meetings

2013-05-02 00:00:00 Twin Peaks Target Achieved, What's Left? by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management

Pithy sound bites arent our forte. So when we came up with the Twin Peaks idea (last decades S&P 500 highs of 1527 and 1565) a few months back, we hoped wed stumbled on a market theme that might last a while. That wish was dashed on March 28th, when the S&P 500 exceeded its October 2007 peak of 1565.15.

2013-05-01 00:00:00 Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review by Team of Thomas White International

Major emerging Asia Pacific economies, which picked up growth momentum during the latter half of 2012, struggled to carry forward the economic pace during the initial months of 2013. China, India, and Indonesia, some of the most populous countries in the region and in the world, faced significant headwinds to growth as key engines of the economy investment, consumption, and exports came under strain.

2013-05-01 00:00:00 May 2013 Commentary by Team of Sadoff Investment Management

The slow growing economy will cause the Federal Reserve to stay the course with continued stimulus via low interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) for some time. This environment continues to be bullish for stocks.

2013-04-30 00:00:00 Stockman to America: Sinners, Repent! by Laurence B. Siegel (Article)

In a massive volume that melds economic history and social criticism, the former Reagan administration budget director David Stockman has documented countless ways in which America went astray over the last century. Most notably, he decried the corruption of free-market capitalism by those seeking effortless profits at the public?s expense. This is the source of his book?s title, The Great Deformation.

2013-04-30 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

Stocks rebounded from the previous week. Earnings were not bad, and investors now appear to be focusing on this weeks Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings.

2013-04-30 00:00:00 Is May Really the Time to Go Away? by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

As investors near the witching hour of May, the oft-asked question once again comes to the foreground is it best to sell in May and walk away? This year could prove the exception to recent history, but a number of trends are beginning to take shape inside the markets inner workings.

2013-04-29 00:00:00 New Highs Bring New Worries by Richard Golod of Invesco

The sustainability of the rallies in US and Japanese equities this year so far is looking uncertain amid slowing year-over-year earnings growth and mixed global economic signals. European and emerging market shares have traded lower year to date and seem likely to continue lagging in the near term. However, on balance, I remain optimistic about global equities, seeking yield opportunities and investments with an actively managed, more selective approach.

2013-04-29 00:00:00 Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review by Team of Thomas White International

After facing subdued economic conditions for the most part of 2012, developed Asia Pacific economies started 2013 on a cautious note. While most countries opined that downside risk to GDP growth declined substantially, challenges to growth arose from a recessionary scenario in key developed economies, especially from the European Union.

2013-04-29 00:00:00 Economic Slowdown Has Not Weakened Share Prices by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities rebounded last week as the S&P 500 increased by nearly 1.8%,1 despite continued weak economic data. We believe recent data is not yet weak enough to change forecasts. The relative stability of data and forecasts - supported by stimulative monetary policies, an improving U.S. housing market and fading political polarization in the U.S. and Europe - sends a message of reasonably low volatility and manageable downside risks.

2013-04-27 00:00:00 The Cashless Society by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

A cashless future might be farther off than we either fear or hope. Not only is it farther away than some think, we are actually seeing an increase in the use of cash all over the world (and this is not just a US phenomenon). We will look at some interesting factoids that make for thought-provoking discussions, but when we couple them with research on the rise of the unreported economy (aka the underground economy) and the number of people who get some form of government assistance, we may find problematic consequences resulting from hidden incentives that work in unintended ways.

2013-04-26 00:00:00 An Update on the Global Business Cycle by Investment Strategy Group of Neuberger Berman

Understanding where we are in the an important aspect of investing, as the behavior of asset classes may vary throughout that cycle. Recent data indicate that the U.S. remains in its fourth year of expansion, but payroll and retail numbers have disappointed. Outside the U.S., Europe continues to be mired in recession while Chinas growth rebound recently has appeared to sputter. In this edition of Strategic Spotlight, we review what these developments mean for the global business cycle and how to position portfolios accordingly.

2013-04-26 00:00:00 The Yin and the Yang of Commodity Price Trends by Team of Northern Trust

In recent weeks, financial press headlines have centered on the sharp drop in the price of gold. Of greater importance, however, are the significant price declines of oil, wheat, corn and copper. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is down 6.1% year-to-date after a nearly steady reading in 2012 and gains exceeding 20% in both 2010 and 2011. It is essential to recognize the different nuances buried in these commodities price trends. First we will focus on the implications of declining commodity price trends and then discuss gold specifically in more depth.

2013-04-26 00:00:00 No Escape by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Global economic growth has weakened, while the US economy hasnt reached "escape velocity." US stocks have held up relatively well. With few other attractive alternatives, domestic equities appear to be the best house in a rough neighborhood. With the Fed committed to easing, housing improving, and valuations reasonable, the trend should continue. Risks remain and diversification and some hedging strategies are recommended.

2013-04-26 00:00:00 Why The Fed's Balance Sheet Matters Neosho Capital Takes On Alan Blinder by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital

We anticipate the Fed will begin slowing, but not eliminating, its QE purchases later this year, barring another severe downturn in the intervening period. As such, we expect macro-economic factors such as currency, interest rates, growth, and inflation to continue to be a significant influence on stock market returns and that the long-term benefits of active portfolio management and individual company performance will continue to be masked by these macro influences.

2013-04-26 00:00:00 A Playbook for Investors: How to Shoot, Score, Win by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

So, in the competitive spirit of the NBA playoff season, I?ve gathered a series of plays that investors can use to shoot, score and win during this year?s market. I?m happy to say they include all the elements of an exciting game, including a comeback kid, an upset and an underdog.

2013-04-26 00:00:00 Financial Repression: Why It Matters by Shane Sheperd of Research Affiliates

Financial repression refers to a set of governmental policies that keep real interest rates low or negative, with the unstated intention of generating cheap funding for government spending. The ramifications of these policies will be measured in decades, not years.

2013-04-26 00:00:00 Like Baseball in the Snow by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover, Mike Czekaj of Broadleaf Partners

As has occurred in each of the last three years, the economy should continue to plug along, not as we might like it to be, but as we can reasonably expect. Growth scare or not, we suspect that the end of 2013 will show that continued progress lies ahead, but perhaps not exactly in the same pattern as it has thus far.

2013-04-25 00:00:00 Questioning Quantitative Easing by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Speculation over the reduction or expansion of quantitative easing largely amounts to market noise.

2013-04-24 00:00:00 What's Behind China's Economic Slowdown? by Weili Huang of Columbia Management

Chinas economy grew by 7.7% year over year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2013, against the market expectation of 8.0% yoy and a prior quarters 7.9% yoy. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 1.6% quarter on quarter (qoq), with an annualized growth rate of 6.6%, a step down from the 2.0% qoq and 8.2% annualized growth seen in 4Q 2012.

2013-04-23 00:00:00 The New Challenges to Reinhart and Rogoff by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Advocates for debt reduction and austerity have had no more authoritative sources than Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. But last week, these two professors had to defend claims that errors in their research ? ranging from a typo in a spreadsheet to the failure to include data from New Zealand ? invalidated their much-acclaimed findings.

2013-04-23 00:00:00 Looking Back at Peak Oil: The Coming Crisis in Energy Supplies by Richard E Vodra, JD, CFP (Article)

Peak Oil ? the maximum sustainable rate of global oil production ? happened in 2012. Thats one of the main conclusions of a new report, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels ? The Supply Outlook, released in March 2013 by the Energy Watch Group. This event will have profound long-term implications for how advisors should manage clients portfolios, and how clients should plan their future expenses.

2013-04-23 00:00:00 Ugly Week All Around Bombings, Explosions and Selloffs by John Buckingham of AFAM

It was a miserable week, what with the Boston bombings, lockdown and shootout, the horrific fertilizer plant explosion in Texas and the ricin-laden letters sent to elected officials providing vivid reminders that we still live in a dangerous world. True, the week ended about as well as it could as Friday nights incredible drama in Watertown brought some closure in Boston and the come-from-behind victory for the Red Sox on Saturday was right out of Hollywooda three-run go-ahead home run after Neil Diamond leads Fenway Park in a rendition of Sweet Caroline!

2013-04-23 00:00:00 Q1 Earnings Leave Much To Be Desired by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Following the strongest first quarter in 15 years, it is not surprising to see equity markets faltering in April. Last weeks decline of 2.1%, however, may reflect deeper concerns about corporate fundamentals amid a mixed earnings season.

2013-04-22 00:00:00 Strategy for a Second Gear Economy by David Kelly of J.P. Morgan Funds

American investors could be forgiven for feeling just a little confused. One week after the stock market posted its strongest first-quarter gains since 1998, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the weakest monthly job growth in nine months. Real GDP growth was just 0.4% in the fourth quarter but appears to have been much stronger in the first. So is the economy getting stronger or weaker, how is the Federal Reserve likely to react to it and what, if anything, should investors do about it?

2013-04-22 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

The end to another tax season; a hectic week on the earnings calendar; a number of key domestic economic releases; and ongoing developments on the global economic frontand yet, much of the country (and world for that matter) was focused on the events in Boston and the aftermath of the bombing that led to a massive manhunt and a shootout with police. Early in the week, the celebrated Boston Marathon came to an abrupt halt as terror again reigned throughout the country and nearby residents were sent into lockdown mode.

2013-04-22 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Despite recent gains in portfolio valuations, I question whether we are really profiting from the upward surge. To be sure, there is more money in your account, according to your last three monthly statements. And whos to argue that doesnt translate to real dollars, real well-being.

2013-04-22 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review by Team of Thomas White International

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) was established in 1992 to help Russia and former communist states such as Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic among others in their transition to market-based economies. In its January forecast, the London-headquartered bank sounded optimistic over the economic prospects of most of the countries covered in this review, which also include Turkey.

2013-04-22 00:00:00 Is There a Silver Lining to the Gold Price Plunge? by Jon Ruff of AllianceBernstein

Its been a volatile week for gold prices, which tumbled by the most in 30 years. Although gold is still not obviously undervalued, we think the recent market moves make stock prices of gold miners look attractive when compared with prices of the precious metal.

2013-04-19 00:00:00 Equity Investment Outlook by Team of Osterweis Capital Management

Every so often we write an Investment Outlook with conclusions that prove to be both accurate and worth repeating. Such is the case with our prior outlook issued in January 2013. In it we stated that At the risk of sounding complacent, we believe that the fundamental trends that produced such favorable results in 2012 are still in place and should support another good year in 2013. We are not blind to the challenges and uncertainties that still face us, nor do we believe that the year ahead will be devoid of volatility.

2013-04-19 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

The Federal Reserve is printing money. No statement could be less truthful. The Federal Reserve is not, and has not been, printing money as defined as an acceleration in M2 or money supply. A review of post-war economic history would lead to a logical assumption that the money supply would respond upward to this massive infusion of reserves into the banking system. The reality is just the opposite. Printing money? No.

2013-04-19 00:00:00 F.I.R.S.T.: Bond Market Outlook by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms, Mike Mata of ING Investment Management

Amid heightened political uncertainty in Europe and subdued global growth expectations, global investors owe Hiroki Kuroda a big domo arigato for his pledge to inject about $1.4 trillion into the moribund Japanese economy by the end of 2014. The newly appointed BOJ governor?s unprecedented plan to buy Japanese government bonds,

2013-04-19 00:00:00 "America Has Faced the Unknown Since 1776," So Says Warren Buffett by Paul Kasriel of Econtrarian, LLC

So wrote Warren Buffett in his March 1, 2013 letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. stockholders. In the phrase before this quote, Mr. Buffett wrote: Of course, the immediate future is uncertain And after this quote, he wrote: Its just that sometimes people focus on the myriad of uncertainties that always exist while at other times they ignore them (usually because the recent past has been uneventful).

2013-04-19 00:00:00 First Quarter Investment Commentary by Team of Litman Gregory

Looking ahead, significant uncertainty surrounds fiscal and monetary policy in terms of what policies will be adopted and their ultimate economic and financial market impacts. More broadly, still-high global debt levels pose an economic headwind. Against this backdrop, our outlook for stocks has not improved. If anything, given the sharp run-up in stock prices, we are getting closer to reducing our U.S. equity exposure further than we are to increasing it.

2013-04-17 00:00:00 Hyperactive Monetary Policy: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly by Lupin Rahman, Mohit Mittal, Josh Thimons of PIMCO

Hyperactive monetary policy (HMP) is in full force as fiscal policy retreats. The benefits of HMP outweigh the costs for now. Despite cyclical growth, we will likely not achieve escape velocity and eventually the costs will likely overtake the benefits.

2013-04-17 00:00:00 In the Category of Sign Spinners by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital

If you thought the plunge in Gold prices was tough on those long the precious metal, wait until you see the upcoming hit to the April Non-Farm Payrolls in the category of Sign Spinners...

2013-04-17 00:00:00 The Interest Rate Environment: Comparing High Yield Bonds and Bank Loans by Team of Hotchkis & Wiley

In its first quarter 2013 newsletter, "The Interest Rate Environment: Comparing High Yield Bonds and Bank Loans," Hotchkis & Wileys high yield team analyzes the behavior of the high yield market and the bank loan market in different interest rate environments to determine whether they can make sensible assumptions about the future.

2013-04-17 00:00:00 Present and Emerging Risks to the Gold Trade by Amit Bhartia, Matt Seto of GMO

The notion of gold as a hedge against systemic risks is flawed. We believe that the concept of golds role as an insurance policy needs to be narrowed significantly.

2013-04-17 00:00:00 Signs of a Correction by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Although the long-term economic picture remains sanguine, a number of global risks and economic results point to a temporary period of consolidation in equity markets.

2013-04-17 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equities corrected for the second successive month in March, on concerns that continuing weakness in European demand could hurt export growth for several countries in Asia and Latin America. These economies had seen a revival in their export fortunes during the second half of last year as U.S. consumer demand turned healthier. However, the moderation in U.S. consumer sentiment during March has somewhat dulled the optimism.

2013-04-16 00:00:00 All That Glitters Is Not Gold by Scott Colyer of Advisors Asset Management

This quote from Shakespeares Merchant of Venice is apropos given the nosedive in the gold markets today. In our 2013 Best Ideas piece we labeled gold a neutral as gold had not had a significant correction since 2008. Our research indicated a significant slowing of bullion purchases by gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in 2012 versus 2011. We looked for a correction and now need to contemplate whether we are in the end of the commodity bull market or merely a pause that refreshes.

2013-04-16 00:00:00 Gold in the Crosshairs by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

In the opening years of the last decade, most mainstream investors sat on the sidelines while "tin hat" goldbugs rode the bull market from below $300 to just over $1,000 per ounce. But following the 2008 financial crisis, when gold held up better than stocks during the decline and made new record highs long before the Dow Jones fully recovered, Wall Street finally sat up and took notice.

2013-04-15 00:00:00 The (Up) Beat Goes On, Part II by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

We wrote Part I of this theme on February 11 during the first quarter rally, when the S&P 500 closed the week at 1518. This past week the S&P ended at 1589, after increasing 2.3%. Global stock prices continue to push to new highs and thus provide support for a pro-equity bias. One nuance is that the composition of the equity rally has been abnormally defensive.

2013-04-12 00:00:00 How a Landslide Shifts Copper Supply by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The U.S. mining industry was dealt a devastating blow as Kennecott Utah Coppers Bingham Canyon Mine experienced a pit wall failure causing a massive landslide with rocks and dirt covering the bottom of the mine pit. Its a miracle no one was hurt due to the vigilance of its owner, Rio Tinto. The landslide is just one example of how quickly and unexpectedly the supply and demand factors facing the red metal can shift, which underscores the need for nimble active management.

2013-04-12 00:00:00 Assume a Perfect World by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Waiting for our forecasts to be wrong before we adopt a yet another solution based on a temporary fix of yet another forecast that turned out to be wrong is no way to run a railroad, unless you want your train running off a cliff. I applaud the recent attempts in DC to come to a solution on the deficits and budget, but where are the leaders who want to get real with those forecasts?

2013-04-12 00:00:00 Soft Patch - Part Four? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Stocks continue to trade at all-time highs, but concerns are rising over a possible pullback and downturn in economic growth. A consolidation of gains is likely, but trying to trade around a pullback can be quite difficult. A potential tapering of Fed asset purchases continues to be discussed, but the Fed also appears nervous over the potential for a spring downturn. Cooler heads appear to be gaining traction in Washington and at least some marginal progress is being made. Economic improvement is gaining traction in Japan, raising hopes of sustainable change, while Europe continues to suffer.

2013-04-11 00:00:00 The Ripple Effect of Abenomics by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Monetary policy in Japan will continue to drive investors in that country to overseas markets, which will affect global asset prices and bond yields.

2013-04-11 00:00:00 Global Investing in 2013: Policy Dominance, Active Management and a New Paradigm in Currencies by Scott Mather of PIMCO

We expect that the impact of ongoing global policy experimentalism on real economic growth and financial markets will likely vary substantially from country to country, creating both risks and opportunities. With flexible, active global strategies investors can potentially benefit from a broader opportunity set and the ability to go off benchmark in an effort to both avoid risks and tap opportunities.

2013-04-09 00:00:00 MLPs: Winning Streak Broken, Growth Story Intact by Sponsored Content from Legg Mason ClearBridge
by Chris Eades, Portfolio Manager (Article)

After an off year clouded by investors concerns about future tax policy, ClearBridges outlook for MLPs is again brightening. Oil and natural gas production are both ahead of estimates and the resulting infrastructure build-out is continuing.

2013-04-09 00:00:00 First Quarter Market Commentary by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates

After a strong 2012, the market continued its ascent in the first quarter, shrugging off macro issues like the Sequester and the Cyprus bail-in. The S&P 500 rose roughly another 10%, reaching a new all-time high. Normally when stocks are moving higher at a fast rate, it is the economically sensitive sectors that lead and the defensive ones that lag. But the first quarter saw the reverse, as the top three performing sectors were the three traditional defensive ones: healthcare, consumer staples and utilities.

2013-04-09 00:00:00 PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Asia: How Leadership Changes Are Shaping Asia's Outlook by Q&A with Ramin Toloui, Tomoya Masanao and Robert Mead of PIMCO

For Asia, slow but not slowing global growth will likely keep external demand neutral, and policy developments will therefore help shape the economic outlook. In Japan, we see a significant boost to aggregate demand coming from the concerted monetary and fiscal expansion of the new Abe government. In China, concerns about inflation, housing market excesses, and long-term financial stability are prompting policy restraint that should keep growth below 8% this year.

2013-04-09 00:00:00 Bond Market Review & Outlook by Thomas Fahey of Loomis Sayles

The first quarter of 2013 turned out pretty much as expected: a low volatility environment with the level of bond yields and credit spreads relatively stable. At some point, we have to be happy with earning a yield on our fixed income investments. The last several years have been a major bond bull market, particularly 2012, but with yields at low levels, there is not much room left for bond price appreciation and we should be comfortable with earning our yield and carry.

2013-04-09 00:00:00 Morning in Japan by Christian Thwaites of Sentinel Investments

There were two very important central bank meetings last week, one from the Bank of Japan the other the ECB. Bank of Japan press conferences have been soporific affairs for years with a few QE programs not leading to much and no changes to inflation targets. Deflation, a declining workforce and falling aggregate demand have been pretty much the unbroken story for the best part of two decades.

2013-04-09 00:00:00 John Hussman ? Why Prospective Returns Are Low by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Monetary and fiscal policies have driven our economy into an unstable equilibrium, pushing investors into higher-yielding securities, according to John Hussman. But those higher yields are illusory, he said, because corporate profit margins are too high to be sustainable.

2013-04-08 00:00:00 Taking Distortion at Face Value by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

The U.S. stock market presently reflects two unstable features. One is that extraordinary monetary policy specifically quantitative easing has created an ocean of zero-interest money that someone has to hold at each point in time, and that provokes a speculative reach for yield. The other is that extraordinary fiscal policy, coupled with household savings near record lows, have joined to elevate profit margins more than 70% above their historical norm, as the deficit of one sector has to emerge as the surplus of another.

2013-04-08 00:00:00 Ben Bernanke, the Rodney Dangerfield of Fed Chairmen by Paul Kasriel of Econtrarian, LLC

First it was 2012 presidential candidate Rick Perry, who wanted to deal with Ben Bernankes money-printing Texas style. Then 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney indicated that Ben Bernanke had better have his personal effects packed up and ready to move out of his Fed office by January 21, 2013.

2013-04-05 00:00:00 Could Consumers Change Japan's Tide? by Team of Matthews Asia

This year, investor attention has focused on Japan and its macroeconomic policy with hopes that rising inflation expectations might spur businesses to invest and consumers to spend. Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Japans ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) regained power late last year and proposed more aggressive monetary policies, including an ambitious inflation target, the yen has weakened more than 20% against the U.S. dollar and more than 15% against the euro.

2013-04-05 00:00:00 Eye of the Beholder: Dissecting the Variety of Price-Earnings Ratios by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

There are many ways to value the stock market. Here, a look at several popular metrics, along with my view on the attractiveness of stocks.

2013-04-04 00:00:00 Absolute Return Letter: The Need for Wholesale Change by Niels Jensen, Nick Rees,Tricia Ward of Absolute Return Partners

The seeds of the next crisis have probably already been sown as a consequence of the lax monetary policy currently being pursued. Frustrated with the lack of direction from political leaders, most recently witnessed in the handling of the crisis in Cyprus which was a complete farce, central bankers from around the world are likely to demand change, but politicians will have to be pushed into a corner before they will respond to any such pressure. Hence nothing decisive will happen before the next major crisis erupts.

2013-04-03 00:00:00 First Quarter Recap by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

This past month marked the fourth anniversary of the global equity market bottom on March 9, 2009. U.S. stocks have clawed back all of the losses from the Great Recession and are near historical highs. Most other major markets are still well below their 2007 peaks, but have rebounded sharply since last June and look increasingly resilient. However, there is tremendous anxiety about the economic outlook, and many investors fear equities and other risk assets are floating on a sea of liquidity rather than solid fundamentals. We are more constructive and maintain a pro-growth investment stance.

2013-04-03 00:00:00 F.I.R.S.T.: Made in the U.S.A. by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms, Mike Mata of ING Investment Management

Not just the preamble for the machine-wash-in-cold-water-and-eat-celery-only instructions on the inside of your skinny jeans, Made in the U.S.A. is a brand in vogue these days as the Stars and Stripes looks to dawn a manufacturing renaissance to go with that snazzy new housing recovery everyones been talking about.

2013-04-03 00:00:00 Why This Economic "Recovery" is So Weak by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

We start today with an excellent editorial I read last week written by Mort Zuckerman, Editor-In-Chief of U.S. News & World Report. My goal every week is to do a lot of reading and summarize what Ive learned in these pages week in and week out. But every now and then I run across something so good that it just makes sense to reprint it in its entirety, even if its not my own work. Not many of my contemporaries are willing to do that, as they think it makes them look less scholarly. I dont have that problem.

2013-04-03 00:00:00 A Man in the Mirror by Bill Gross of PIMCO

Am I a great investor? No, not yet. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingways Jake in The Sun Also Rises, wouldnt it be pretty to think so? But the thinking so and the reality are often miles apart. When looking in the mirror, the average human sees a six-plus or a seven reflection on a scale of one to ten. The big nose or weak chin is masked by brighter eyes or near picture perfect teeth. And when the public is consulted, the vocal compliments as opposed to the near silent/ whispered critiques are taken as a supermajority vote for good looks.

2013-04-02 00:00:00 Bernanke’s Motives Behind Quantitative Easing by Paul Franchi (Article)

We are at a turning point: away from one global monetary standard, to a yet-to-be-determined new form.

2013-04-02 00:00:00 New Market Records, Quarterly Review, And What's Next by John Rothe of Riverbend Investment Management

Last week, after gyrating for the past month, the S&P 500 was finally able to close in record territory. However, investors may not be feeling the joy in their pocketbooks just yet; when inflation is factored in, it becomes clear that the US stock market is still in the extended cyclical bear cycle which started in 2000.

2013-04-01 00:00:00 A More Mature Bull Market by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

One of the characteristics of a more mature bull market, such as the one we are in today, is that asset prices become more susceptible to contractions due to negative news.

2013-03-29 00:00:00 China on the Move by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate

After six years of weighing the options, China is now firmly committed to implementing a new growth strategy. But it will take courage and sheer determination to tackle the biggest obstacle of all deeply entrenched local and provincial power blocs.

2013-03-29 00:00:00 Learnings From the Cyprus Saga by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

There are important differences between the situation in Cyprus and the challenges other southern European nations face that should limit the transfer of financial trauma. The hope remains that the ECBs promise to do whatever it takes to solve the sovereign debt crisis will ultimately settle markets. But access to certain types of ECB support requires reaching agreement on restructuring with the same European officials who have handled the situation in Cyprus so maladroitly.

2013-03-29 00:00:00 Market Resilience by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

After a stellar first quarter performance from US stock markets, which showed impressive resilience to continued headwinds, a pullback is certainly possible but we dont suggest investors who need to add to allocations wait. In a relative world, the US stock market continues to look like an attractive place to invest, although there may also be opportunities in Japan and Europe as well. The upcoming earnings season could tell the story for the market over the next couple of months, but we continue to advocate a long-term point of view and maintaining a diversified portfolio.

2013-03-28 00:00:00 What Maslow and Rand Would Tell Investors Today by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

While gold?s performance in the short term has been counterintuitive, I plan to stick to my own advice. I simply feel safer with a small weighting in gold as insurance.

2013-03-27 00:00:00 Why Not a Quantitative Target for Quantitative Easing? by Paul Kasriel of Econtrarian, LLC

When I should have been practicing my bass guitar in preparation for my band class Thursday evening, I, instead, watched the first few minutes of Federal Reserve Chairman Bernankes post-FOMC press conference. A number of press inquiries were related to adding specificity to the FOMCs criteria for modifying its current $85 billion per-month purchases of securities. In the short time that I watched the press conference, Chairman Bernanke did not seem to satisfy the press on this issue.

2013-03-25 00:00:00 The Hook by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

At the 2000 peak, Richard Russell observed "Every bull and bear market needs a hook. The hook in a bear market is whatever the bear serves to keep investors and traders thinking that everything is going to be all right. There is always a hook."

2013-03-25 00:00:00 Cyprus Reminds Us of Threats and Improving Global Economy by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Equity averages sagged slightly last week. Strength later in the week made up for earlier weakness as the equity rally paused for the Cyprus crisis. We (and the consensus) perceive Cyprus as mainly a local problem and believe it supports our view to remain cautious with Eurozone weightings.

2013-03-22 00:00:00 In Gold We Trust by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Poorly thought out government policies hurt the formation of capital and destroy people?s trust in paper money. Leaders may have good intentions, but some of their actions show disrespect for private property and individualism. This only reemphasizes gold as an important asset class.

2013-03-21 00:00:00 Goldilocks Roars by Team of Bedlam Asset Management

Equity markets are producing supra-normal returns. To March 18th, the portfolio is up over 15% year-to-date, over 100 basis points ahead of the index. Many investors would be happy with such a gain over a full year rather than a mere twelve weeks, so are puzzled, the more so as respected pundits agree that the data makes for easy stories of rampant inflation, collapsing government credit and a prolonged global recession. Equity markets, however, are stubbornly refusing to follow the script.

2013-03-20 00:00:00 US Equities: Does Valuation Matter? by Mark Ungewitter of Charter Trust Company

With growing talk of a new secular bull market, its time to take a look at valuation history. While its true that anything can happen in financial markets, it seems unlikely that a new secular bull market will lift off from a P/E multiple of 17x.

2013-03-20 00:00:00 Cyclial P/E 10 Ratios at S&P 500 Peaks Prior to Bear Markets by Doug Short (Article)

Earlier this week I posted a commentary Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look at PE Expansion. The content was largely reprinted from an analysis at the Wall Street Rant website. Among the many email responses I received about the post, one in particular stood out. Jonathan Schoolar, a long-time veteran of the investment industry, wrote:

2013-03-19 00:00:00 The Outlook for Equities by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management

It doesnt take much to get me started on a memo. In this case one sentence was enough, in an article from the February 4 online edition of Pensions & Investments, as described by FierceFinance on February 28: The long-term equity risk premium is typically between 4.5% and 5%.

2013-03-19 00:00:00 Why Are Emerging Markets Struggling in 2013? by Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Despite one of the sharpest rallies in US equities in recent memory, emerging market equities have been left curiously behind in 2013. Through last Friday, the market segment was down 1.0%, compared to an S&P 500 index that was up 10.0%. This seems to violate the regime that investors have gotten used to over the past 10 years, whereby the emerging markets equity index served as a high beta proxy for the US equity market.

2013-03-18 00:00:00 Outlook for the Yen by Team of Nomura Asset Management

For several quarters ahead, we estimate that the Yen will remain range bound near the level of PPP (purchasing power parity), which is estimated to be between 90 to 95 Yen/USD. Though currency movements will be affected by various factors, we think the monetary policies of both Japan and the U.S. are the most important.

2013-03-18 00:00:00 Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look at PE Expansion by Doug Short (Article)

Earlier today the anonymous author of Wall Street Rant sent me a link to a commentary that asks the intriguing question Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven?

The approach used in the commentary to answer the question is to do some simple math with the Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE) popularized by Yale Professor Robert Shiller.

2013-03-15 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity Commentary by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging market equities saw a moderate correction in February, broadly similar to the rest of the world. Prices reacted negatively to renewed concerns of a worsening European fiscal crisis as the results of the recent Italian elections turned out to be inconclusive.

2013-03-15 00:00:00 The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

With the exception of Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments (e.g., Social Security, Supplementary Security Income, workers compensation, etc.), the Big Four continue to show expansion. The seemingly bizarre income data is the result of the end-of-year strategy of early bonuses and moving forward of 2013 income to avoid higher taxes. Weve seen this situation before in the 1990s. The PI anomaly is the reason the average for the Big Four (the gray line above) has shows contraction for the past two months.

2013-03-15 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview by Team of Thomas White International

Global economic trends largely remained positive during February, though the stalemate after the Italian elections and the failure by policymakers to reach a deal to avoid the U.S. sequester heightened the political and policy risks. The U.S. GDP figure for the last quarter of 2012 was revised higher, showing the worlds largest economy managed to avoid a decline.

2013-03-15 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Despite exceptionally easy monetary policy, inflation risk remains low. Record stock market levels are boosting consumer spending. U.S. capital spending is poised to be a bright spot this year.

2013-03-15 00:00:00 Chinas Next Stop by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Would it surprise you to discover that China is planning to add 800 miles to its subway system over the next two years? Thats the distance equivalent to building a network from Dallas to Chicago in less time than the U.S. Congress can resolve a budget!

2013-03-15 00:00:00 Finally!! Now What? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Surprise! We dont know whats going to happen in stocks over the next few weeks. But we are seeing an environment that we believe can foster further gains in the US as economic data remains generally positive, the Fed maintains its accommodative stance, and small progress is being made in the fiscal realm. Investors concerned about a pullback may want to hedge their portfolios, but maintain adequate exposure to equities.

2013-03-13 00:00:00 Who Cares if There's a High-Yield Bond Bubble? by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

High-yield bonds, or "junk bonds" as they are widely known, have received a lot of attention in recent months. Is there a high-yield bond bubble? Certainly a ton of new money has gone into high-yield bond funds over the last few years. Millions of Americans who would have never considered high-yield bonds have bought in due to near zero returns on traditional savings vehicles.

2013-03-12 00:00:00 Gundlach: Investors are asking the Wrong Question by Robert Huebscher (Article)

If you're trying to assess the Federal Reserve's so-called exit strategy from quantitative easing, then you're asking the wrong question, according to Doubleline's Jeffrey Gundlach. Quantitative easing is a permanent policy tool, he said, and investors should be asking what that means for their investment strategy.

2013-03-12 00:00:00 Finally, a Jobs Report Worth Reading by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Surprisingly, the February employment report showed a labor market growing at a reasonably healthy rate. Concerns that the sequester would spill into the broader economy have yet to materialize and if recent trends hold, the economy may finally be approaching a point of robust and sustainable job growth.

2013-03-12 00:00:00 Pacific Basin Market Overview February 2013 by Team of Nomura Asset Management

Monthly returns for February 2013 were somewhat mixed, but the Pacific Basin regional markets generally ended in positive territory this month. Outside of Asia, political instability in Italy and concerns that the Federal Reserve might begin to scale back its monetary stimulus in the U.S. led to weaker investor sentiment. Economic data from China was weak, largely due to the effect of the Chinese New Year.

2013-03-12 00:00:00 We Made It. Now What? by Christian Thwaites of Sentinel Investments

What looks like a fairly settled policy in Europe is fast becoming a very dangerous situation, according to Christian Thwaites in his latest "Thought of the Week" -- "We Made It. Now What?" -- adding that the outlook for the world's second largest economic bloc is pretty week.

2013-03-12 00:00:00 U.S. Dominates World Markets for the Trifecta by Douglas Cote of ING Investment Management

While large-cap indices get all the headlines, mid and small caps have continued to excel. Frontier markets have picked up the slack as major emerging markets stumble. Global risks persist, though U.S. fundamentals appear solid. The move toward U.S. energy independence should soon result in a trade surplus, boosting GDP.

2013-03-12 00:00:00 The 2030 Increasing Inequality Scenario by Bill O'Grady, Kaisa Stucke of Confluence Investment Management

Last month we started looking at the 2030 alternative world development scenarios as laid out by the National Intelligence Council (NIC). The NIC forecasts the likely paths that are either currently underway or are forecast to occur in the future. In its most recent report, the NIC projects four possible global political and economic states based on expected trends. Last time, we presented the most likely best case scenario. This week, we will explore the third scenario, under which the world gets wealthier as a whole, but inequalities increase.

2013-03-12 00:00:00 After Last Week's US Rally: Proceed with Caution by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

While last week's rally was supported by better-than-expected economic data and improving investor sentiment, the magnitude of US stocks' advance is starting to cause some indicators to flash yellow. Russ explains.

2013-03-11 00:00:00 Two Myths and a Legend by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

The present market euphoria appears to be driven by two myths and a legend. Make no mistake. When investors cannot possibly think of any reason why stocks could decline, and are convinced that universally recognized factors are sufficient to drive prices perpetually higher, euphoria is the proper term.

2013-03-08 00:00:00 Spasmodic Stupidity: The Wile E. Coyote Congress by Cliff Draughn of Excelsia Investment Advisors

I predict the Ides of March will find us in a continued sequestration, and Congress will use the time between now and the debt ceiling deadline on March 27th to debate the merits of true tax reform as opposed to governing by crisis. In the end, though, the reform conversation will revert to governance by crisis, with another stop-gap measure to avoid government shutdown during Holy Week and Easter, which will tide us over to the elections of 2014. Do you expect any different?

2013-03-08 00:00:00 How to Keep Calm and Invest On by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The market noise of today will not be going away. However, investors can gain confidence in the following wisdom of the crowd. As famous investor Benjamin Graham said, "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. Keep calm and invest on.

2013-03-08 00:00:00 Flying High by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover, Mike Czekaj of Broadleaf Partners

The media has made a spectacle out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indices do not include the compounding effect of dividends paid by member companies. Any retiree will tell you that dividends represent a return of capital and useful income in the real economy. If you had reinvested those dividends back in the index as they were paid, the old time highs reached in October of 2007 likely would have been passed some time ago.

2013-03-07 00:00:00 When Will the Music Stop? by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The investment environment is in transition, with uncertainty around policy moves contributing an increasing amount of uncertainty for asset prices.

2013-03-07 00:00:00 Animal Spirits: F.I.R.S.T. by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms, Mike Mata of ING Investment Management

Call it what you will a dog-eat-dog world in which you're wearing Milk-Bone underwear or an example of capitalism at its finest an M&A cycle is heating up. This activity may be signaling the rebirth of what British economist John Maynard Keynes originally referred to as "animal spirits", much to the delight of fictional corporate barbarian Gordon Gekko and his real-life analogues, who require little prompting to act on Keynes "spontaneous urge to action".

2013-03-07 00:00:00 Capex Revival by Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds

For some time now, we have been noting the defensive nature of the investment environment, one in which fear and uncertainty continue to be the major forces driving markets. Interestingly, this trend has held true for both investors and corporations alike of late. Even after a powerful move from the low of last November, for example, investors remain fearful about cyclical or economically sensitive sectors while at the same time embracing those very sectors that benefit from easy money, are defensive by nature, and are supposedly riskless.

2013-03-07 00:00:00 A New Chapter for Turkey? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

In 2012, Turkey was the best performer among the emerging markets we track on our Periodic Table showing a decade of returns. All developing countries rose last year, but stocks in Turkey climbed an astounding 56 percent.

2013-03-06 00:00:00 U.S. Sequester: How Significant is it for the Global Economy? by Team of Thomas White International

Since the U.S. has been one of the brightest spots in the current global economic environment, any negative development that restricts activity in the U.S. could have a magnified impact on the economic prospects for the rest of the world.

2013-03-05 00:00:00 Is Now the Time to Diversify? by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

The use of global diversification in constructing client portfolios has come under fire in recent years due to the underperformance of many risk assets. Traditionalists who stuck to their familiar S&P 500 and BarCap Aggregate Bond index blends generally outperformed their diversified peers in 2011 and 2012, as historic risk premiums failed to materialize and various alternative investment strategies faced headwinds.

2013-03-04 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

The sky is falling. The sky is falling. It's the millennium all over again. (How did those fears work out?) With politicos unable to reach any agreement on the budget (taxes), the "dumb, arbitrary" spending cuts began to take effect to the tune of $85 billion this year. (So much for a military preparedness.) Though the impact on the economy will not be felt overnight, some areas will begin to suffer sooner than others and biz/consumer confidence could become an issue in the near future.

2013-03-04 00:00:00 Living in the Past: Investors Finally Putting Away the Rear-View Mirror? by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

With a very strong January in the books for stocks, and hefty inflows into stock mutual funds, are we finally seeing the investor class become believers?

2013-03-04 00:00:00 Health Care Reform: A Q&A With Our Municipal Bond Experts by Shari Sikes, Art Schloss of Invesco

Health care reform took center stage in the last year as the Supreme Court upheld the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA), affirming the constitutionality of portions of the law. The decision made it possible for major health care reform to proceed. This January, health care spending again was at the forefront during the fiscal cliff debate as a means to reduce government spending. Health care is poised to remain at the center of this discussion until a federal budget deal is reached.

2013-03-01 00:00:00 The Fed's Tightening Pipe Dream by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Precious Metals

Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: "We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off." What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed's unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.

2013-03-01 00:00:00 ECRI "Recession" Update: Proprietary Indicators Slip Again by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

ECRI adamantly denied that the sharp decline of their indicators in 2010 marked the beginning of a recession. But in 2011, when their proprietary indicators were at levels higher than 2010, they made their recession call with stunning confidence bordering on arrogance.

2013-03-01 00:00:00 Greetings from Istanbul! by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

As I travel around Turkey, I am reminded how vital good government policies are to the health of a nation. Following a decade of fiscally responsible actions, Turkey is the picture of a growing prosperity. Perhaps Americas elected officials could take a tip from this vibrant country overseas.

2013-02-28 00:00:00 An Ephemeral Swoon by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Although volatility is likely to stay relatively high going forward, the recent move in the markets to risk-off mode appears to be a temporary condition.

2013-02-27 00:00:00 Potential Threats to Equity Rally by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Equity markets started a third consecutive year in rather impressive fashion, gaining more than 6% to date. With so much optimism in the investment community, it is always worth keeping an eye open for risks possibly overlooked. By now, it is apparent that investors are increasing their exposure towards equities with arms wide open. Data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) estimates $39 billion flowed into equity mutual funds this year through February 13. Following outflows of $153 billion in 2012, the sudden reversal has been impressive.

2013-02-27 00:00:00 The Healthcare Blues by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

It has been some time since we peeked into my worry closet. A few questions this weekend prompted me to think about things I am paying attention to but have not written about, and one thing that I am not worried about at all, despite the apparent media hysteria.

2013-02-27 00:00:00 The Great Migration by Herbert Abramson, Randall Abramson of Trapeze Asset Management

We are value investors dedicated to creating portfolios for clients, whether growth (equities), income or a balanced blend of both, of undervalued securities with meaningful upside potential and a margin of safety to guard against permanent loss. For us, the bottom-up factors are the most compelling, but we are also mindful that we need to take account of the top-down macro factors. We know how the Crash of ?08 and the accompanying recession created havoc for investors, including us, no matter how undervalued stocks were.

2013-02-26 00:00:00 Looking For A Reason To Sell-Off by Christian W. Thwaites of Sentinel Investments

Markets were looking for a reason to correct. Risk assets had outpaced themselves since mid November and in the first seven weeks the S&P[1] had outperformed the US Treasury 10-year note by 12% and the 30-year bond by 15%. The markets will lumber through the sequester and face the next test on the debt ceiling and first quarter results. Below the surface, the outlook is mildly optimistic. Why the qualifier? Because everything, in Europe, US and Japan, must be set in the context of the asset deflation and deleveraging going on and that will go on for some years.

2013-02-26 00:00:00 Sudden Discomfort by Scott J. Brown of Raymond James

Minutes of the January 29-30 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed a growing discomfort with the Feds Large-Scale Asset Purchase program (QE3). Thats not all that surprising. Even those who strongly favor the program arent exactly happy with it. However, thats a far cry from wanting to end the program anytime soon. We should learn more this week as Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers his semiannual monetary policy testimony (Tuesday and Wednesday).

2013-02-25 00:00:00 Dodging the bullets by Team of Bedlam Asset Management

Although the year is barely a month old there are already signs that the long-awaited rotation out of the perceived safety of bonds and into inflation-proofed equities may have begun. Given the dismally low yields on offer it seems likely that, at the very least, it is the beginning of the end of the bond market bubble. Some of the biggest bubbles in the bond market, and thus most at risk from a sell-off, are in high yield and emerging market debt.

2013-02-22 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Outlook: Will Emerging Markets Continue Their Run in 2013? by Scott Klimo of Saturna Capital

A number of times we have been asked whether emerging markets will continue their run in 2013. Our response typically begins with the following clarification: "Emerging markets" may be a handy way to refer to the countries that constitute a generally recognized asset class, but this group is far from monolithic. Widely differing levels of development, economic drivers, opportunities to invest, and returns exist under the emerging markets umbrella. For this reason it's not entirely correct to imply that "emerging markets" had a run in 2012.

2013-02-22 00:00:00 ECRI "Recession" Update: Proprietary Indicators Slip Again by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

ECRI adamantly denied that the sharp decline of their indicators in 2010 marked the beginning of a recession. But in 2011, when their proprietary indicators were at levels higher than 2010, they made their recession call with stunning confidence bordering on arrogance...

2013-02-22 00:00:00 Central Banks Are Factoring Financial Stability into Their Decision Making by Team of Northern Trust

Central banks are factoring financial stability into their decision making. The FOMC is taking a critical look at its asset purchase strategy. Don't look now, but the sequester is coming.

2013-02-22 00:00:00 A Test of Strength for Gold by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

This week, we saw the gold bears growling louder and gaining strength, as the worlds largest gold-backed ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, experienced its largest one-day outflows since August 2011. The Fear Trade fled the sector following the Federal Reserves meeting that revealed a growing dissension among some of its members over the central banks bond-buying program.

2013-02-21 00:00:00 Tapping China's Growth via Dividends by Yu Zhang of Matthews Asia

When the long-term historical performance of global equity markets is considered, investors can see that the contribution of dividends to total return is significant. In this regard, China has been no exception. Between 1999 and 2012, 46% of the total return of the MSCI China Index was derived from dividends received and reinvested. This month, Yu Zhang, CFA, explores the ways in which a dividend-investing approach can be an effective investment strategy in China.

2013-02-21 00:00:00 Gold Miners- Back in the Abyss- An Update by JJ Abodeely of Value Restoration Project

Back on May 18th, 2012 I wrote a piece titled Jumping Into The Abyss: A Bull Case for Gold Mining Stocks. The miners had declined 40% from their August 2011 highs and for a variety of fundamental reasons like valuation and the relationship between mining costs and the price of gold and technical reasons, like sentiment, I felt the case to buy was compelling. The stocks subsequently rallied more than 30% over the following 4-5 months.

2013-02-20 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Tick Tick Tick. The President has plans for improving life in America. Tick Tick Tick. Republicans want to fix the middle class (and restricting taxes on the upper class may help). Tick Tick Tick. Earnings reports look good, but forecasts for the current quarter have been lowered. Tick Tick Tick. Weekly jobless claims keep falling, but major corporations are announcing layoffs. Tick Tick Tick. Sales figures show growth, but Wal-Mart and others are worried. Tick Tick Tick.

2013-02-19 00:00:00 Alan Greenspan on the Market and the Global Economy by Adam Jared Apt (Article)

During his six-decade-long career in financial services, Alan Greenspan was a central figure in seminal events that drove investment markets, from the savings-and-loan crisis to the dot-com bubble to the housing crisis. Now, nearing 87, he rarely speaks in public. But he did so last week, offering his forecasts for the U.S. and European economies.

2013-02-19 00:00:00 Too Great Expectations by Richard Golod of Invesco

Global investors entered the year with newfound enthusiasm. Across the board, global equities traded higher in January, and retail money flows into global equities were the best in 17 years. Media reports about a "Great Rotation" from fixed income into equities are raising expectations about the possibility of a new secular bull market. However, I believe a little perspective is in order.

2013-02-16 00:00:00 Seeing the Forest by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Equity markets continue to be resilient and investor confidence is elevated in various sentiment indices, suggesting a near-term pullback is possible. But there are longer-term trends developing that give us hope that the US economy's expansion and market's rally are sustainable. Federal spending cuts via the "sequestration" appear sure to happen, but there will continue to be debates about the nature and size of the cuts. Similarly, questions are increasing as to the potential unwinding of current Fed policy with regard to timing and rapidity.

2013-02-16 00:00:00 When It Comes to Gold, Stick to the Facts by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

During short-term gold corrections, its much more important to focus on the facts, including the fact that gold is increasingly viewed as a currency. Rather than buying real estate, lumber or diamonds, central banks around the world are buying gold. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), over 2012, central bank demand totaled 534 tons, a level we have not seen in nearly 50 years.

2013-02-16 00:00:00 The Squeeze: Reassessing the Japan/Korea/China Manufacturing Nexus by John Longhurst of PIMCO

If the yen settles between 95 and 100 to the dollar, it could be a game changer for Japanese companies which have restructured to become profitable at 75 yen to the dollar. Some Korean companies, especially those in heavy industry, may be squeezed by intensified Japanese and Chinese competition. We expect Korean firms to fish in profit pools in businesses related to their core competencies, chiefly to the detriment of Asian and European competitors.

2013-02-15 00:00:00 Latest OECD Data Shows Global Economy in State of Flux by Steve Rumsey of Optimus Advisory Group

According to the OECD ("Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development"), the US economy managed to stage a leading indicator "rally" into the most favorable northeast quadrant. The red six month lagging tail on the graph clearly shows the economic leading indicators moving from expansion to slowdown, only to move back to the expansion quadrant in late 2012.

2013-02-15 00:00:00 ECRI "Recession" Update: Propietary Indicators Take a Pause by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped fractionally in today's update. It is now at 129.6 versus the previous week's 130.2.The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also eased, now at 8.3, down from last week's 8.9. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 10th of last year, but is is fractionally off its interim high set last week.

2013-02-15 00:00:00 Thailand: Land of the Smiles by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

China and India may be Asia's largest economies, but they aren't the only countries with growth potential on the continent. Southeast Asian countries can also offer compelling investment opportunities. Thailand, known as the land of the smiles because of the expression its natural beauty and friendly people inspire, is a country where we believe the economic prospects could give investors reasons to smile too.

2013-02-15 00:00:00 Hyperinflations, Hysteria, and False Memories by James Montier of GMO

In the past, Ive admitted to macroeconomics being one of my dark, guilty pleasures. To some value investors this seems like heresy, as Marty Whitman1 once wrote, Graham and Dodd view macro crucial to the analysis of a corporate security. Value investors, however, believe that macro factors are irrelevant. I am clearly a Graham and Doddite on this measure (and most others as well).

2013-02-14 00:00:00 When Politics Trump Economics by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The U.S. economic expansion continues, but increasing attention to political risks, and currency wars, in particular, indicate a period of heightened volatility could be ahead.

2013-02-14 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Consolidate After Last Year's Gains by Team of Thomas White International

After the strong relative performance towards the end of last year, emerging market equities settled with moderate gains during the month of January as global investor sentiment remained optimistic. Global economic data continue to be mostly positive, sustaining the trend from the second half of last year.

2013-02-13 00:00:00 Concerned by Recent Economic Data? Look Closer by Marco Pirondini of Pioneer Investments

We've seen a lot of GDP data recently that, at first look, may seem a bit concerning. But if we take a moment for analysis, much of the news is actually good for the economy and the markets.

2013-02-13 00:00:00 Trading Secrets: And All Our Yesterdays by Tad Rivelle of TCW Asset Management

Markets work. Not because they are perfect, but because they self-correct. Inherent to their functioning is the ability for buyers and sellers, borrowers and lenders, to freely express their predilection to engage in commercial transactions as proxied by the price mechanism. This is all utterly basic. So, why are the capital markets in general, and the credit markets in particular, not to be trusted to operate without the price and quantity guidance of the Federal Reserve? I

2013-02-13 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview January 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Global economic trends continued the moderate positive momentum from earlier months and helped sustain investor sentiment in January. The unexpected decline in U.S. economic output for the fourth quarter of last year was mostly due to a sharp fall in government spending and a smaller inventory buildup, while consumer and business spending exceeded forecasts. Also, recent data suggest that U.S. labor market gains during last year were better than earlier estimates.

2013-02-13 00:00:00 It's Time To Take Advantage Of Rising Energy Prices by John Rothe of Riverbend Investment Management

Oil prices have been on the rise again as we enter a period of the year that is historically strong for the energy sector. While markets continue to be a bit overbought, investors should not yet panic at rising oil prices. Since last summer, oil prices and the market have been closely correlated. What had been viewed by consumers as a "tax" in the past, is now viewed as a sign of increasing demand for gas due to economic expansion.

2013-02-12 00:00:00 The Milton Friedman Centenary: One Hundred Years of Surprisingly Little Solitude by Laurence B. Siegel (Article)

Milton Friedman was once a lonely voice for capitalism in a collectivist era, and seemed doomed to a hundred years of solitude. Instead, he arguably became the preeminent public intellectual of the hundred years that followed his 1912 birth.

2013-02-12 00:00:00 Consumers Less Enthused to Bail Out the Economy by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Following recent recessions, it was commonplace to rely on American consumers to bail out the economy. The reliance on the American consumer was widely understood as the best remedy for an ailing economy. We are not as fortunate this time around and our dependence on consumers is one reason for the sluggish rate of recovery since 2008.

2013-02-11 00:00:00 Solving the Profitability Puzzle by Vadim Zlotnikov of AllianceBernstein

Companies around the world enjoyed especially high profit margins in late 2012. But can this trend be maintained or is profitability poised for a collapse that might threaten stocks this year?

2013-02-11 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

With folks in the Northeast finally returning to normalcy following Superstorm Sandy's impact in October, a "potentially historic" blizzard threatened the region with predicted disruptions to businesses, schools, travel, etc. Though New England is expected to catch the brunt of the damage, forecasters are calling for up to 20 inches of snow in New York City. For now, NYSE Euronext does not anticipate anything but "business as usual" at the NY Stock Exchange as contingency plans are well in place.

2013-02-08 00:00:00 ECRI "Recession" Update: Leading Index Growth Sets Another Interim High by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

First a flashback for those of us who have followed ECRI's media appearances: we know that the company adamantly denied that the sharp decline of their indicators in 2010 marked the beginning of a recession. But in 2011, when their proprietary indicators were at levels higher than 2010, they made their recession call with stunning confidence bordering on arrogance...

2013-02-07 00:00:00 Echoes of 2004 by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Rising equities and tightening credit spreads define the near-term investment outlook, but this is not the first time we have seen this cycle play out in recent memory.

2013-02-07 00:00:00 From QE to Queasy: Fiscal Policy and the Risk of Inflation by Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates

Quantitative easing does not directly cause inflation. Rather, by enabling the government to issue low-cost debt, it fosters undisciplined spending, says Jason Hsu, CIO of Research Affiliates, LLC in this commentary. This spending, in turn, generates inflation, transferring wealth from future taxpayers to the current generation. Hsu argues that Americans are more likely to follow the European model of insufficient saving than to imitate the Japanese practices of private sector belt-tightening, high savings rates, and international lending.

2013-02-06 00:00:00 The January Barometer by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

It's that time of year again when the media is abuzz with that old stock market saying, "so goes the first week of the new year, so goes the month and so goes the year." With the S&P 500 (SPX/1513.17) better by 2.17% over the first five trading sessions of this year, and up 6.10% for the month of January, it is worth revisiting the January Barometer. Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer states that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year.

2013-02-06 00:00:00 Focus on Fixed Income by Steve Van Order of Calvert Investment Management

Last week Administration officials, including the President, clearly ruled out using extraordinary legal measures to avoid defaulting on Treasurys financial obligations in the absence of a debt ceiling hike by Congress. The two legal measures most discussed, going back to the summer 2011, were invoking the 14th Amendment and minting a trillion dollar platinum coin. The coin idea was dismissed as Fed officials commented that the central bank would not honor the coin as a deposit, and the amendment idea has been shelved a number of times.

2013-02-06 00:00:00 GDP Report Tanks - Is A Recession Looming? by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management

We will cover a lot of ground today. We begin with a new report from Goldman Sachs which argues that the US economy will remain the strongest in the world for many more years. The report rebuts claims that America is a nation in decline. Quite the contrary, say Goldman analysts who claim that there is a growing"awarenessof the key economic, institutional, human capital and geopolitical advantages the U.S. enjoys over other economies."

2013-02-05 00:00:00 Letters to the Editor by Various (Article)

A reader responds to Joe Tomlinson's article, Predicting Asset Class Returns: Recommendations for Financial Planners, which appeared last week, and another reader responds to Dan Richards' articles.

2013-02-05 00:00:00 In Uncertain Environment, Jobs Grow Tepidly by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

For the 35th consecutive month, private payrolls registered positive growth. It was hardly the robust report economists would prefer, but the labor market continues to mend. However, there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned, especially with sequestration on the horizon.

2013-02-05 00:00:00 Fourth Quarter 2012 Equity Market Review by Natalie Trunow of Calvert Investment Management

With the excitement of the QE3 announcement wearing off in the fourth quarter, market participants refocused on the less-than-stellar earnings season in the U.S. and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election and impending fiscal cliff, while the negative impact of Hurricane Sandy further dampened investor sentiment. Despite a double-dip recession in the eurozone, there was some progress on the European policy front and China's economy continued to show signs of stabilizing, which helped international stocks outperform their U.S. counterparts.

2013-02-04 00:00:00 Our Outlook: Very Bullish for the Stock Market by Team of Sadoff Investment Management

The combined readings of these breakouts, volume strength, significant pivots by a long list of financial stocks and improving commodity prices evidence major trend improvements. Restated, the underpinnings for both the economy and stock market evidence significant strengthening ahead.

2013-02-04 00:00:00 A Gross Underestimate by Jonathan Coleman, Soonyong Park of Janus Capital Group

As we enter 2013, we felt it would be an appropriate time to revisit one of last years most controversial predictions of future equity performance. We acknowledge that equities in general may not continue to deliver the same real rate of return they have over the last century; however, we believe the glum outlook for the asset class forecasted by Bill Gross last year misses the mark. Our estimates of future equity returnsbased on three different approachesall point to a meaningfully higher forecast than Gross' pessimistic prediction.

2013-02-04 00:00:00 Shifting Sentiment? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Is investor sentiment shifting in favor of equities, which could help to continue the recent rally?

2013-02-01 00:00:00 Crystallization at Davos by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The euphoria among my fellow Davos attendees was palpable, but short and long-term risks for the world's advanced economies, including competitive currency devaluation, remain concerning.

2013-02-01 00:00:00 Feasting in a Time of Famine: The South African Consumer by Maria (Masha) Gordon, Richard Flax of PIMCO

South Africa's consumer sector has been on a strong run for the past several years, but there are signs the consumer is now coming under pressure. For all the challenges that have faced the South African economy, most listed consumer companies have enjoyed a great run since 2008. However, a combination of factors strong growth in retail sales and credit along with the rise in consumer debt levels and weak employment growth suggest the South African consumer sector may have pulled consumption forward in a way that could prove ultimately unsustainable.

2013-02-01 00:00:00 ECRI "Recession" Update: Leading Index Growth Hits Another Interim High by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

ECRI posts its proprietary indicators on one-week delayed basis to the general public, but ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has switched focus to his company's version of the Big Four Economic Indicators I've been tracking for the past several months. See, for example, this November 29thBloomberg video that ECRI continues to feature on their website. Achuthan pinpoints July as the business cycle peak, thus putting us in at the beginning of the eighth month of a recession.

2013-02-01 00:00:00 2013 Economic & Capital Market Outlook by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management

It took our country 229 years to accumulate $8 trillion in federal debt. It only took the next eight years to double it to $16 trillion. History shows that when a country accumulates debt at this rapid pace, economic growth languishes. Not surprisingly, Congress is pursuing policies that attempt to inflate the economy. Five years after the Financial Crisis, we really havent fixed much. Instead, we've issued more debt in order to pay our bills and sustain a quality of life society cannot afford long term.

2013-02-01 00:00:00 The Big Four Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

Note from dshort: This commentary has been revised to include the latest Nonfarm Employment data released today.... Nonfarm Employment rose 0.12% in January, following 0.15% and 0.18% gains in December and November, respectively. The Year-over-year increase is 1.52%. Nonfarm employment has been the tortoise of the Big Four, slow and steady. The average MoM change over the past 12 months has been 0.13%, and the range has been 0.07% to 0.20% -- no contractions.

2013-02-01 00:00:00 Dow To 14,000 and Beyond? by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

So will the Dow go beyond 14,000? Although you cant predict how hot the weather will be this summer, the clouds appear to be parting to reveal the sun today. Make sure your asset allocation positions your portfolio to shine.

2013-02-01 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

Is the world engaged in a currency war? Januarys job report had some pleasant surprises, but more progress is needed. Purchasing managers surveys suggest growth in the US, retreat for Europe

2013-02-01 00:00:00 A Gross Underestimate by Jonathan Coleman and Soonyong Park of Janus Capital Group

The glum outlook for the asset class forecasted by Bill Gross last year misses the mark. Our estimates of future equity returnsbased on three different approachesall point to a meaningfully higher forecast than Gross pessimistic prediction.

2013-02-01 00:00:00 Look at the Bears! Look at the Bears! by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms and Mike Mata of ING Investment Management

Yes, the grumbling of bond bears is reverberating in Treasury yields, but that sound isnt the death knell of a grizzly; at this point, the closest ursine analogue is Boo-Boo Bear.

2013-01-31 00:00:00 China's Market Ups and Downs by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

China's stock market was a roller coaster in 2012, and those investors with a weak stomach for unpredictability probably found the ride unpleasant. Its true that by many measures last year's weak market performance in China's A share market was disappointing, but in a market of this size the story isn't all good or all bad, so unlike the market masses, I remain confident about China's prospects and continue to search for long-term investment opportunities in China.

2013-01-31 00:00:00 Q4 2012 Letter by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management

During the second half of 2012, central banks turned their massive and coordinated monetary intervention "up to eleven." This is the overwhelmingly dominant economic and market force today. Despite the long-term consequences (which are very real), we believe the central bankers commitment is steadfast. It has and will likely continue to mute both real economic and financial market volatility (at the expense of long-term growth). A deeper analysis of what has changed, our assessment of the impact, and our portfolio response follows.

2013-01-31 00:00:00 Credit Supernova! by Bill Gross of PIMCO

They say that time is money. What they don't say is that money may be running out of time. There may be a natural evolution to our fractionally reserved credit system which characterizes modern global finance. Much like the universe, which began with a big bang nearly 14 billion years ago, but is expanding so rapidly that scientists predict it will all end in a "big freeze" trillions of years from now, our current monetary system seems to require perpetual expansion to maintain its existence.

2013-01-31 00:00:00 Elliott's Paul Singer On How Money Is Created ... And How It Dies by Team of TimeCapital

When we launched our series into the US Shadow Banking system in the summer of 2010 we had one simple objective: to demonstrate just how little the process of modern (and by modern we mean circa 2004 not 1981) money creation was understood.

2013-01-30 00:00:00 An Apple's First Worm by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover, Mike Czekaj of Broadleaf Partners

Writing about Apple is painful. Not because I have lost money in recent months or have no insight to provide, but because the media will likely report on it ad nausea for the next few days. It is perhaps human nature that the news which is most readily produced is also the news that is most easily consumed. If you want to be read, it's best to write words that people will read. While this makes for great entertainment and advertising, it hasn't typically been the best way to get new investment ideas.

2013-01-29 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

The trend is your hopefully it will continue for a little (lot) longer. With the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff on the backburner (for now), investors seem to like what they are seeing from earnings season and in the economy. They continued to take stocks higher as the S&P 500 settled above 1500 for the first time in five years and is currently riding a eight session winning streak.

2013-01-29 00:00:00 Emerging Europe: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

As the 2012 year closed, the emerging economies of Europe joined their cousins in the developed world for their share of woes, and in particular, were impacted by the debt crisis in the Euro-zone, their primary trading partners. Though Russia, the biggest of these economies, finally managed to become a member of the World Trade Organization, the resource-dependent economy recorded slowing growth during the third quarter as both household consumption and state spending expanded at a slower pace.

2013-01-28 00:00:00 Is the Fed Doing the Right Thing? by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates Funds

After a strong 2012, the stock market is off to a good start in 2013, rising more than 5% so far in January and currently riding an eight-day winning streak (the longest since 2004). Encouraging economic data has a lot to do with this. Unemployment claims are at a 5-year low, home sales and prices are up, and consumer credit and retail sales are growing. Research firm ISI says that the current level of unemployment claims is consistent with 4% real GDP growth for the first quarter, which would be an acceleration from the sluggish growth of recent years.

2013-01-25 00:00:00 Feeding the Dragon: Why China's Credit System Looks Vulnerable by Edward Chancellor, Mike Monnelly of GMO

Edward Chancellor and Mike Monnelly, members of GMO's Asset Allocation team, write to institutional clients in a new white paper about China's credit boom and outlines some worrying recent developments in its financial system. In GMO's view, "China's credit system exhibits a large number of indicators associated with acute financial fragility," including China's debt and real estate bubbles, the belief that the government is underwriting financial risk, the shadow banking system, a proliferation in credit guarantees, among others.

2013-01-25 00:00:00 Americas: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

The outlook for most economies in the Americas region improved during the fourth quarter as domestic consumption growth was sustained and the anticipated revival in global demand has lifted the prospects for export growth this year. Partly helped by fiscal and monetary policy measures introduced since 2011, consumer demand has held up across most countries in the region.

2013-01-25 00:00:00 ECRI "Recession" Update: Leading Index Growth Hits a New Interim High by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

For a few months, ECRI's indicators cooperated with their forecast, but that has not been the case in the second half of 2012 -- hence, I surmise, their switch to the traditional Big Four recession indicators. ECRI's December 7th article,The Tell-Tale Chart, makes clear their public focus on the Big Four.

2013-01-25 00:00:00 Opine Less, Think More by Francois Sicart of Tocqueville Asset Management

In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, looks at investing from a broad perspective and goes over in detail some of the macro themes he is examining as he tries to help the reader make sense of what 2013 will bring. He discusses potential "black swans" that he has his eye on, the bounceback of American and European stock markets, the sometimes overlooked lack of a correlation between economic growth and stock market performance, what P/E ratios tell us both historically and in the present, and where valuations can go from here.

2013-01-25 00:00:00 Housing Is Off the Floor, But Faces Ceilings. by Team of Northern Trust

Housing is off the floor, but faces ceilings. The cost of housing could be a source of increased inflation. January's FOMC meeting should not break any new ground.

2013-01-24 00:00:00 Searching for Growth in a Low-Growth World by Austin Graff of PIMCO

We believe corporate profit growth will fall short of sell-side consensus estimates. But companies with inflation-linked revenues and supply side advantages to drive revenue growth, and those with ample cost levers to improve margins, are positioned for sustained earnings growth in the New Normal.

2013-01-24 00:00:00 Emerging Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging Asia Pacific economies showed strong signals of a rebound in economic activity amidst generally rising exports and stabilizing inflation. While some major economies like China, which had cut interest rates throughout 2012 to stimulate the economy, saw a mild resurgence in inflation, many countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Philippines saw inflation stabilize significantly during the quarter. Still, India, the region's second largest economy, continued to be troubled by rising prices despite high interest rates.

2013-01-24 00:00:00 Get Your Funk Out by Jim Goff of Janus Capital Group

I manage investment professionals for a living. When an analyst gives me the positives on one hand and the negatives on the other hand, but offers no conclusion, I want to cut one of those hands off. The best analysts understand all the issues but come to well-founded views.

2013-01-24 00:00:00 Escape Velocity in the Economy by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

The broad improvement in U.S. economic data indicates that the economy is likely to continue to expand, supporting earnings growth and pointing to an eventual return of leveraged buy outs.

2013-01-23 00:00:00 The Year of the American Consumer by Philip Tasho of TAMRO Capital

It was an above-average year for stock returns across the domestic market cap spectrum. Ultimately, unconventional and accommodative monetary policy trumped investor concerns over fiscal policy, the Presidential election and weakness overseas. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) entered uncharted waters when it announced open-ended quantitative easing through the ongoing purchasing of government securities. Importantly, other central banks globally waded in by mimicking the Fed in word if not deed and the global liquidity cycle continued apace.

2013-01-23 00:00:00 Developed Asia Pacific: Regional Economic Review - 4Q 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

Developed Asia Pacific economies witnessed mixed economic fortunes during the fourth quarter of 2012. While the group's largest economy, Japan, suffered from stubborn deflation and slumping trade due to a bitter territorial dispute with China, Singapore and Hong Kong managed to fare better.

2013-01-22 00:00:00 Ten for '13 by Investment Strategy Group of Neuberger Berman

Last year, despite the noise surrounding the U.S. elections and the ongoing European debt crisis, the main drivers of asset prices arguably were the large-scale bond-buying programs put in place by global central banks to alleviate systemic pressures. In 2013, we anticipate fewer aggressive central bank actions as the pace of global growth gradually picks up. We believe the largest influential factors to our outlook are premature fiscal tightening in the U.S. and a potential resurgence of eurozone problems.

2013-01-22 00:00:00 Keep Your Eye On The Ball - 2012 Year End Letter by Team of Sloan Wealth Management

The members of the Portfolio Management Team at Sloan Wealth Management (SWM) coach two baseball teams, two soccer teams, one T-ball team and one basketball team for our collective young children. Thus, we find ourselves stressing the basics. Learning the fundamentals of how to catch a pop-up will eliminate some of the fear of getting hit in the face. In 2012, we found many parallels to the capital markets as our portfolios posted high double digit returns in the face of fear.

2013-01-18 00:00:00 Middle East/Africa: Regional Economic Review 4Q 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

According to the International Monetary Fund's Regional Economic Outlook report, countries in the Middle East and North Africa region are expected to grow at different rates. Oil exporting nations are cashing in on high energy prices and production, and are projected to expand 6.6 percent in 2012 before tempering in 2013. On the other hand, oil importers such as Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia among others are expected to clock growth just over 2 percent as the slowdown in the world economy and political tensions continue to hinder expansion for some of these countries in transition.

2013-01-18 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

The American Taxpayer Relief Act has lifted the immediate uncertainty of the fiscal cliff. Nevertheless, tax increases that are already in effect from this act, as well as the Affordable Care Act, impose a major obstacle to growth for the U.S. economy in the first half of 2013. The result of these taxes is considerable, especially in light of the poor trend in household income. In addition, these tax increases will continue to act as a drag on economic growth until late in 2015 and are unlikely to produce the revenue gains advertised.

2013-01-18 00:00:00 ECRI's Public Indicators Continue to Undermine Their Insistance That We're in a Recession by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

For a few months, ECRI's indicators cooperated with their forecast, but that has not been the case in the second half of 2012 -- hence, I surmise, their switch to the traditional Big Four recession indicators. ECRI's December 7th article, The Tell-Tale Chart, makes clear their public focus on the Big Four.

2013-01-18 00:00:00 Are Central Banks Easing Off Prematurely? by Team of Northern Trust

Are central banks easing off prematurely? Washington is girding for another budget imbroglio; Inflation is contained, for now.

2013-01-17 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary December 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices made robust gains in December, as further improvement in economic trends across most regions lifted the outlook for 2013. Policymakers in the U.S. managed to put together an agreement at the last minute and averted the 'fiscal cliff', one of the major risks that had restricted investor sentiment during earlier months. In Europe, though economic signals remain largely weak, the further fall in bond yields of the troubled countries has helped sustain optimism about resolving the region's fiscal crisis this year.

2013-01-16 00:00:00 The Rise of Asia's REITs by Sherwood Zhang of Matthews Asia

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Asia are following in the footsteps of their U.S. counterparts as they become an increasingly important asset class attracting investors looking to gain exposure to a diversified pool of real assets and relatively high yields. In the past decade, REITs have become a growing force in the regions investment universe. This month Sherwood Zhang, CFA, takes a look at just how far Asia's REIT markets have come, and what new opportunities as well as risks may still exist.

2013-01-16 00:00:00 The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production Both Rise by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The charts don't all show us the individual behavior of the Big Four leading up to the 2007 recession. To achieve that goal, I've plotted the same data using a "percent off high" technique. In other words, I show successive new highs as zero and the cumulative percent declines of months that aren't new highs. The advantage of this approach is that it helps us visualize declines more clearly and to compare the depth of declines for each indicator and across time (e.g., the short 2001 recession versus the Great Recession). Here is my own four-pack showing the indicators with this technique.

2013-01-16 00:00:00 UK Economic Quagmire Adds Pressure for Monetary Policy Change by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein

Bank of England governor-elect, Mark Carney, has raised hopes that the central bank may soon switch to a nominal GDP target. In our view, the costs outweigh the benefits, but the attractions of a radical new approach will grow if the economy remains stuck in the doldrums.

2013-01-15 00:00:00 Demographics and the Decline of Equity Mutual Funds by Paul Franchi (Article)

Until the last few years, mutual fund flows followed performance. Recently, however, money has flowed disproportionately into bond funds and out of US equity funds despite a strong rally in the equity markets. Changing demographics explain this shift, which has important implications for advisors and the mutual fund industry.

2013-01-15 00:00:00 Land of the Rising Dead by Christian Thwaites of Sentinel Investments

Yes, you knew we were going to talk about Japan. It's all the rage and the big standout in market performance in the last few weeks. Since November the broad Nikkei-225 average has risen 24% because there's new thinking in town. It's hard to describe Japan's 20 year malaise. Once proud companies shaken, the shattering of a property market and total collapse of stocks. Even if the market rises at the same level of the last few months, it will take six years to re-reach its peak. A more reasonable 10% growth rate will take 14 years. Weird things happen when economies enter deflation.

2013-01-15 00:00:00 Forecast 2013: Unsustainability and Transition by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

As we begin a new year, we again indulge ourselves in the annual rite of forecasting the year ahead. This year I want to look out a little further than just one year in order to think about the changes that are soon going to be forced on the developed world. We are all going to have to make a very agile adaptation to a new economic environment (and it is one that I will welcome). The transition will offer both crisis and loss for those mired in the current system, which must evolve or perish, and opportunity for those who can see the necessity for change and take advantage of the evolution.

2013-01-15 00:00:00 What's Behind the Buyback Binge? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

The pace of stock repurchases says much about equity valuationsand companies' expectations for economic growth.

2013-01-14 00:00:00 The More Things Change... by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

One crisis averted...another one on the way? Of course, but we're still positive on the US economy and stock market.

2013-01-14 00:00:00 Equity Market Review & Outlook by Richard Skaggs of Loomis Sayles

While the S&P 500 Index posted a slightly negative fourth-quarter return, the Index's 16.0% return for all of 2012 was notable in the face of a long list of global fundamental concerns. Midcap and small cap stocks performed better during the ?nal three months of the year, posting gains of roughly 2.0%-3.0%. The fourth quarter outperformance of smaller stocks was enough to overtake the S&P 500 for the year, but just fractionally.

2013-01-14 00:00:00 The 'Dark Continent' is Shining Bright by Team of Thomas White International

From a recipient of aid, Africa has transformed itself into a magnet attracting capital and investment.

2013-01-11 00:00:00 Special Edition: The Outlook for 2013 by Team of Northern Trust

At this time of the year we typically get warm and generous wishes for the New Year and, of course, numerous questions about what our crystal ball has in store for 2013. While many economists publish their perspectives prior to January 1, we opted to wait in the hope of having a clear fiscal picture for the United States. A lot of good that did us...

2013-01-11 00:00:00 Invest In Equities: Your Future Self May Thank You by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

Investors have had an illusion about the stock market since the financial crisis. With the barrage of negative headlines and abhorrence toward risk, investors seemed to feel that equities would not improve going forward. This turned out to be a mistaken belief.

2013-01-11 00:00:00 Abe's Return May Prod Japan Forward by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia

Japan's politics have entered 2013 with a mixed freshness. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has clinched a rare second shot at the prime minister's post. His first term, which began in late 2006, lasted only about a year and ended with his sudden resignation. But following its landslide victory last month, his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has secured a two-thirds majority in the 480-seat Lower House, giving it the constitutional power to override Upper House opposition, where no single party holds a majority, on almost all issues.

2013-01-11 00:00:00 ECRI's Imaginary Recession: Now in Its Seventh Month by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week's 126.6 (which is an upward revision from 126.4). Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 5.1, up from last week's 5.0. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, although it is off its 6.0 interim high on October 12th.

2013-01-11 00:00:00 Winter Quarterly Commentary by John Prichard of Knightsbridge Asset Management

While a last minute compromise may have been reached on taxes, it represents only a brief rest stop on a required road of repair. On the positive side, we should see less annual wrangling with tax rates having been made permanent, meaning they will not automatically change at some future date (but rather only when Congress feels like changing them), with many areas also sensibly indexed for inflation.

2013-01-11 00:00:00 Fed Policy Update: Waiting for Clearer Criteria for Open-Ended Asset Purchases by Alan Levenson of T. Rowe Price

The FOMC's shift from dates to economic conditions as the basis for policy rate guidance clarified the criteria for beginning rate hikes. The criteria for ceasing open-ended asset purchases are not clear, and may reflect not only the evolution of the labor market recovery but also concerns about financial stability and the size of the Fed's balance sheet. We expect the Fed to try to clarify these criteria in the months ahead. Asset purchases will end a "considerable time" before policy rate hikes commence, and rate hikes will commence before asset sales.

2013-01-10 00:00:00 A Brighter Picture for Jobs and the Economy by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Promising fundamental developments suggest that U.S. economic expansion is likely to continue and equities will rise in the first quarter.

2013-01-10 00:00:00 Defense as a Good Offense by Brian Frank of Frank Capital Partners

Oddly, defensive names that ordinarily trade at premiums to the market are trading at big value discounts. These companies that have the ability to grow in any economic environment are a part of the portfolio, as well as companies riding pockets of growth around the globe. There is a lot to be excited about in 2013 for value stocks.

2013-01-10 00:00:00 Will Emerging Market Earnings Rebound in 2013? by Morgan Harting of AllianceBernstein

For two years, emerging markets companies have delivered inferior earnings growth and investment returns compared to peers in sluggish developed market economies. Now, the consensus is that earnings growth will catapult from near-zero in 2012 to 13 per cent in 2013. Hopes were high at the end of 2010 and 2011, too, yet analysts were then forced to revise down their earnings estimates. Will 2013 represent another triumph of hope over experience? To answer that question, let's look at what investors got wrong about emerging markets in recent years.

2013-01-08 00:00:00 Why China Won't Crack by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

For the world's second largest economy, a hard landing scenario looks increasingly remote.

2013-01-07 00:00:00 Restricted Room for Higher Rates by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners

Interest rates should rise through 2013, however, the level to which they can increase will be limited by the Federal Reserve's ongoing attempt to stimulate activity in the housing market.

2013-01-07 00:00:00 It's the Bond Vigilantes Stupid by Martin Pring of Pring Turner Capital Group

Most people are looking to the politicians in Washington to reign in the deficit by bringing spending under control. Based on their record this optimism seems severely misplaced. Nevertheless, the technical position of the bond market is suggesting that a more disciplined and powerful force is waiting in the wings. After a long 31-year vacation it may be time for the bond vigilantes (skeptical global bond investors who vote with their money) to return to town. The President has said a deal over the debt ceiling is non- negotiable but the non-partisan bond vigilantes may have a different view.

2013-01-06 00:00:00 And That's the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Welcome to a new beginning, a new yeara new optimistic investor, a new bipartisan Congress, (well, maybe not). The more things change, the more they stay the same. While investors embraced the budget deal (that is less of a deal than a procrastination), the pragmatists realize that very little has changed other than the "fiscal can" has been kicked down the road for two months. Stocks skyrocketed; bonds plunged; politicos bickered. Welcome to 2013.

2013-01-04 00:00:00 In 2013, Resolve to Follow the Money by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

During these first days of January, many adopt an out with the old, in with the new, approach to shed bad habits or extra pounds. Washington opted for its same ol strategy when averting the fiscal cliff, as the addictive nature of can-kicking is a transatlantic sport, according to The Economist. The short-term fix did nothing to control the unsustainable path of entitlement spending on pensions and health care nothing to rationalize Americas hideously complex and distorted tax code... and virtually nothing to close Americas big structural budget deficit.

2013-01-03 00:00:00 Another Look at Small-Cap Myths by Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds

A few years ago we wrote about several small-cap myths. As we begin the New Year, we thought it might be helpful to revisit some of the more prominent misconceptions about our chosen asset class and to examine how they have factored into recent performance.

2013-01-03 00:00:00 Grin and Bear It. by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Without question, the financial markets yielded better in 2012 than what most had believed possible at the beginning of the calendar year. At that time, embroiled in a U.S. Presidential election and ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, many analysts would have been happy if we simply avoided catastrophe.

2013-01-03 00:00:00 2013 Forecast: Good Economy, Challenged Markets by Douglas Cote, Karyn Cavanaugh of ING Investment Management

We enter 2013 bombarded by conflicting signals. While fundamentals have been mixed of late, longer-term themes our "tectonic shifts" like the energy revolution are gaining momentum and promising to make positive contributions sooner rather than later. And while salutary measures taken by policymakers have eased global risks and lessened fears of Armageddon, there is considerable work yet to be done.

2013-01-02 00:00:00 Somewhere Over the Rainbow by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

We are 13 years into a secular bear market in the United States. The Nasdaq is still down 40% from its high, and the Dow and S&P 500 are essentially flat. European and Japanese equities have generally fared worse. The average secular bear market in the US has been about 11 years, with the shortest to date being four years and the longest 20. Are we at the beginning of a new bull market or another seven years of famine? What sorts of returns should we expect over the coming years from US equities?

2012-12-28 00:00:00 Capitol "Cliffhanger": Thriller or Chiller? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Whatever the outcome of the last-minute jockeying in Washington, meaningful fiscal reform remains unlikely.

2012-12-28 00:00:00 ECRI Update: Flunking Recession 101 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week's 127.2. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 5.4, up from last week's 4.6. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, although it is off its 6.0 interim high on October 12th.

2012-12-28 00:00:00 Readers' Golden Nuggets Focused on Gold, Resources and Overcoming Negativity by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

The past few days Ive been counting down the most popular commentaries over the past year. China, commodities and bond fund popularity were big hits; so were the Surprises in Gasoline, Oil and Resources Stock Prices. Here are the top four.

2012-12-26 00:00:00 Gundlach's High-Conviction Investment Idea by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Count Jeffrey Gundlach among those who expect Japan's currency to collapse because it can't service its debt. Japan's challenges may parallel those that the US faces, and Gundlach feels strongly that they have created a compelling investment opportunity.

2012-12-24 00:00:00 Emerging Markets Equity - Monthly Product Commentary: November 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

Sustained domestic demand growth and a revival in export demand are anticipated to drive expansion next year.

2012-12-21 00:00:00 ECRI Update: The Recession Call Is Further Undermined by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

TheWeekly Leading Index(WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped fractionally in the latest public data. It is now at 127.2 versus the previous week's 127.4. However, the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 4.6, up from last week's 3.9. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, although it is off its high at 6.0 on October 12th.

2012-12-14 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Update: Walking the Recession Plank by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data to its highest level since early August of 2011. It is now at 127.7, up from a downwardly revised 126.7 in the previous week. See the WLI chart. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also rose, now at 4.4 from last week's 3.5. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, although it is off its high at 6.0 on October 12th.

2012-12-11 00:00:00 Loomis Sayles' Matt Eagan on the Macro and Fixed Income Outlook by David Schawel, CFA (Article)

In this interview, Loomis Sayles' Matt Eagan discusses the fixed income universe, Fed policy and issues facing the global macro economy. Eagan is the co-manager, along with Dan Fuss, of the Loomis Sayles Bond Fund and he manages the Loomis Sayles Strategic Alpha Bond Fund.

2012-12-07 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Update: More Recession Flag Waving by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose slightly in the latest public data. It is now at 126.8, up from an upwardly revised 126.2 in the previous week. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also rose, now at 3.5 from last week's 3.4. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, althout it is off its high at 6.0 on October 12th.

2012-11-30 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Update: Beating the Recession Drum by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

TheWeekly Leading Index(WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose slightly in the latest public data. It is now at 126.3, up from 125.4 in the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) declined to 3.4, down from last week's 3.6. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 17th, although it is now at a six-week low, with the high at 6.0 on October 12th.

2012-11-23 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Index Rises, Growth Diminishes by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose slightly in the latest public data (released Wednesday in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday). It is now at 125.7, up from 125.4 in the previous week. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) declined to 3.8, down from last week's 4.3. WLIg has been in expansion territory for thirteen weeks, although it is now at a seven-week low, with the high at 6.0 on October 12th.

2012-11-16 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index: The Slippage Continues by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declined again in the numbers released today. It is now at 125.4, down from its interim high of 127.6 set five weeks earlier. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also declined, now at 4.4, down from last week's downard revision to 5.0. WLIg has been in expansion territory for twelve weeks, although it is now at a five-week low, with the revised high at 6.0 on October 12th.

2012-11-09 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Off Its Interim High by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declined in the numbers released today. It is now at 126.2, down from its interim high of 127.6 set four weeks earlier. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also declined, now at 5.1, down from last week's 5.9. WLIg has now spent eleven consecutive weeks in expansion territory, although it is now at a five-week low.

2012-11-09 00:00:00 Americas: Economic Review 3rd Quarter 2012 by Team of Thomas White International

Economic trends in most countries across the Americas region saw a moderate recovery during the third quarter, though the pace of growth remains subdued. Slower global demand due to the ongoing European recession and the slower expansion in Asia continues to restrict exports from the Americas. At the same time, domestic consumption growth has been relatively more robust than expected and has helped most regional economies prevent a deeper slowdown.

2012-11-02 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Still Jogging in Place by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped fractionally in the numbers released today. It is now at 126.6, down from last week's 126.7 (revised from 126.8). Likewise, the WLI growth indicator (WLIg) slipped slightly, now at 5.9, down from last week's 6.0. WLIg has now spent ten consecutive weeks in expansion territory, although it is off its interim high of 6.1. But for the past six weeks the WLI has been jogging in place in a narrow range (126.2 to 126.7).

2012-10-26 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Running in Place by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose fractionally in the numbers released today. It is now at 126.8, up from last week's 126.6 (revised from 126.7). However, the WLI growth indicator (WLIg) slipped slightly in expansion territory, not at 6.0, down from last week's 6.1. WLIg has now spent nine consecutive weeks of in expansion territory. But essentially the WLI has been running in place for the past five weeks.

2012-10-19 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Index Slips, But Growth Rises by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index of the Economic Cycle Research Institute declined in the numbers released today. It is now at 126.7, down from last week's 127.6 (revised from 127.7). However, the WLI growth indicator rose further in expansion territory to 6.1, up from last week's 5.7. WLIg has now posted sixteen consecutive weeks of improvement and is at its highest level since May 20, 2011. The divergence between the WLI and its growth derivative is probably attributable to apparent anomaly in the BLS's weekly unemployment data over the past two weeks.

2012-10-16 00:00:00 Will Bonds Be ?Burnt to a Crisp?? by David Schawel, CFA (Article)

Bill Gross's recent monthly commentary painted a disturbing picture for investors - he foresees bonds being ?burnt to a crisp.? This isn't just hot air. Such a conflagration is possible, and investors in bond funds, especially those that are constructed similar to the widely followed Barclays bond index, need to heed risks inherent in today''s market.

2012-10-15 00:00:00 The United States: Stability or Complacency? by Alan Levenson of T. Rowe Price

The International Monetary Fund's updated World Economic Outlook foresees a modest pace of U.S. economic expansion in 2012-2013, emphasizing significant downside risks emanating from the euro area crisis and from the domestic fiscal cliff. Weakness in the euro area and slower growth in a secularly-restructuring Chinese economy are weighing on U.S. export trends, but sturdier growth in Canada and Mexico is providing an important offset.

2012-10-12 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators: Time to Recant the Recession Call? by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) made a strong advance in the numbers released today. It is now at 127.7, up from last week's 126.2 (revised from 126.3). See the WLI chart below. The WLI growth indicator (WLIg) now marks its eighth week in expansion territory at 5.7, up from last week's 4.6. WLIg has now posted fifteenth consecutive weeks of improvement and is at its highest level since May 27, 2011.

2012-10-12 00:00:00 Chinas Pyramid of Power by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

We've been able to witness Chinas incredible growth, with GDP averaging 10 percent per year and more than 500 million people moving out of poverty over the past 30 years. Now after three decades of tremendous expansion, this new generation of leaders will have to carefully maneuver the country into the next decade, towing the line between maintaining the stability created during the previous Hu-Wen administration and continuing the political and economic reform necessary to adjust to the countrys slowing growth.

2012-10-05 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators: Mixed Signals in Latest Data by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped fractionally after eight consecutive weeks of growth. It is now at 126.3, down from last week's 126.6 (revised from 126.7). See the WLI chart below. However, the WLI growth indicator (WLIg) now marks its seventh week in expansion territory at 4.7, up from last week's 3.8. WLIg has now posted fourteen consecutive weeks of improvement and is at its highest level since June 3, 2011.

2012-10-01 00:00:00 U.S. Economy Prints 32-month Low: Recession Risks Escalate by Dwaine van Vuuren of

It's been 4 months since the 3rd "Summer Swoon" in this expansion when many commentators were trotting out recession scares and imminent collapses in the stock market. Since then the SP-500 has risen over 9%, peaking at 12% gains some weeks back. There is now an interesting divergence developing between the leading data (stock market, money supply, credit spreads etc.) that is implying positive expansion ahead and the co-incident data that is implying a drift toward possible recession.

2012-09-28 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth at Highest Level Since June 2011 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the eighth consecutive week, now at 126.7, up from last week's 125.3 (revised from 124.7). See the WLI chart below. The WLI growth indicator (WLIg) now marks its sixth week in expansion territory at 3.8 (up from last week's 2.7). It has now posted thirteen consecutive weeks of improvement and is at its highest level since June 10, 2011.

2012-09-21 00:00:00 ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth at Highest Level Since July 2011 by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the seventh consecutive week, now at 125.4, up from last week's 124.7 (revised from 124.9). See the WLI chart below. The WLI growth indicator (WLIg) now marks its fifth week in expansion territory at 2.7 (up from last week's 1.9). It has now posted twelve consecutive weeks of improvement and is at its highest level since July 29, 2011.

2012-09-18 00:00:00 Still Broken After All These Years by Martin Weil (Article)

Four years ago this week, the financial crisis took the world's economies to the brink of collapse. September 15, 2008, the day Lehman Brothers failed and sent global financial markets into cardiac arrest, was my wedding anniversary. My wife and I were celebrating at the time on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey ? a memorable trip, to be sure. Reflecting back on that moment now, I?m struck by how little distance our nation has traveled since.

2012-09-18 00:00:00 Campaign Rhetoric and Our Energy Future by Michael Edesess (Article)

At their respective conventions, both President Obama and Mitt Romney spoke to a centrally important topic for America and the world: energy. Their positions ? political posturing aside ? are broadly similar. But rather than a coherent, sustainable vision for the energy future of the United States, both men's rhetoric reflected the usual exercise in political base-touching, apple pie-polishing, and third-rail avoidance. And two important, perhaps crucial, pieces of the energy puzzle were hardly mentioned at all.

2012-09-18 00:00:00 Fed Delivers another Big Dose of QE by Scott Colyer of Advisors Asset Management

Yesterday, the Fed delivered the much anticipated dose of Quantitative Easing (QE) announcing that it would continue to buy U.S. Agency Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) in an effort to further drive growth in the U.S. economy and decrease the ranks of the unemployed. The monthly purchase rate of $40 billion will be in addition to the already $10 billion that is being reinvested from QE 1&2 in mortgage-backed securities. This new money balance sheet expansion by the Fed accompanies additional guidance that the Fed would stay low on interest rates likely until mid-year 2015.

2012-09-14 00:00:00 ECRI Defends Its Recession Call by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index of the Economic Cycle Research Institute rose for the 6th consecutive week, now at 124.9 from last week's 124.1. The WLI growth indicator now marks its fourth week in expansion territory at 2.1. It has now posted eleven consecutive weeks of improvement. The big news is yesterday's Bloomberg TV interview, in which Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's COO, reasserted his company's recession call made a year ago on September 21st and his belief that the recession has already begun.

2012-09-07 00:00:00 Economic Data Continues to Undermine ECRI's Recession Call by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the fifth consecutive week, now at 123.7 from last week's 123.5 (revised from 123.6). See the WLI chart below. The WLI growth indicator (WLIg) is in its second week in expansion territory at 1.0 (up from last week's 0.5). It has now posted ten consecutive weeks of improvement.

2012-08-31 00:00:00 ECRI's Embarrassing Recession Call by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the fourth consecutive week, now at 123.6 from last week's 123.3. See the WLI chart below. The WLI growth indicator (WLIg) has risen into expansion territory at 0.6 after nine consecutive weeks of improvement.

2012-08-29 00:00:00 Is Inflation Returning? by Martin Feldstein of Project Syndicate

Inflation is now low in every industrial country, and the combination of high unemployment and slow GDP growth removes the usual sources of upward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, financial investors are increasingly worried that inflation will eventually begin to rise, owing to the large expansion of commercial bank reserves engineered by the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

2012-08-23 00:00:00 No Recession Now - But When? by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

There have been a few calls as of late (Hussman, ECRI, Shilling) stating that we are currently in the next recession. Then there is everyone else. While the "optimistic" outlook is always more enjoyable to listen to - the problem is that the current "no recession" view is primarily predicated on current quarter growth rates looked at in isolation. These data points are then extrapolated into continuous future economic expansion.

2012-08-16 00:00:00 The Chinese Hangover: As Infrastructure Spending Drops, So Does Demand for Chinese Steel by Raja Mukherji of PIMCO

The Chinese steel industry today shows many signs of serious economic difficulties brought about by the unprecedented size and speed of industry expansion. However, as the country's focus shifts away from public investments and toward tax cuts, it will be difficult for China to absorb this overabundance of domestically produced steel. Ripple effects of this oversupply may include softening iron ore prices, a possible drop in the Australian dollar, and potentially weaker global steel prices.

2012-08-13 00:00:00 Commodities to Power Emerging Markets Higher by Dawn Bennett of Bennett Funds

In Latin America, Brazil leads as a natural supplier of copper and crude oil, which it is now able to extract and export on competitive terms. Nations rich with natural resources perform well during times of global economic expansion. In particular, countries rich with industrial commodities tend to outperform those without.

2012-07-31 00:00:00 Expect Headwinds for Stocks If Hoisington is Right about Bonds by Keith C. Goddard, CFA (Article)

Might today's historically low interest rates in the U.S. persist for years to come? The latest Quarterly Review and Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management forces readers to consider that possibility, refuting the reversion-to-the-mean mindset that causes many people to expect higher interest rates in the not-too-distant future. If the Hoisington model for the economy turns out to be right, the implications for the stock market are unfavorable.

2012-07-25 00:00:00 An Excess of Reserve by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Bank credit has expanded nicely over the past two years, yet financial institutions continue to hold substantial pools of excess reserves with the Fed. Some suggest that this extended conservatism is hindering the economic expansion, and are calling on the Fed to lower the rate it pays on excess reserves. The ECB has already taken this step. We think that a cut in the interest rate on excess reserves is unlikely.

2012-07-12 00:00:00 The Intersection of Monetary Policy and Volatility Markets by Josh Thimons of PIMCO

When the Fed exhausted the power of its traditional monetary policy tools, it turned to increasingly creative and innovative policy measures. During periods of Fed balance sheet expansion, both interest rate and equity implied volatility experienced significant declines. The opportunities presented by the intersection of monetary policy and volatility markets are often compelling, because most options market participants are not looking at the world through a policy lens.

2012-07-10 00:00:00 Recession is Not Imminent by Dwaine van Vuuren (Article)

Perma-bears are bombarding us with alarm bells, sounding the doom of the US economy. We find ourselves in yet another 'summer slowdown scare,' for the third year running. In 2010 and 2011, the purported slowdowns turned out to be soft landings. Investors who ran to the sidelines stared in disbelief as the stock market roared ahead, leaving them behind. We are likely in the same position now.

2012-07-09 00:00:00 Economic Insights: U.S. Exports: A Lower Gear, but Still Cruising by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

The growth of exports at times has added as much as two percentage points to the overall pace of the economys expansion and is a major reason why American manufacturing has staged a comeback in recent years - a renaissance some have called it. But of late, with the dollar rising against both the euro and the yen, and with growth overseas slowing or, in Europes case, falling, questions have arisen about the sustainability of U.S. export strength.

2012-07-02 00:00:00 Economic Insights: U.S. Exports - A Lower Gear, but Still Cruising by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Amid a rising dollar and sluggish global economies, exports should continue to bolster U.S. growth, although the pace will slow. Exports have remained one of the few consistent bright spots in this otherwise subpar economic recovery. The growth of exports at times has added as much as two percentage points to the overall pace of the economys expansion and is a major reason why American manufacturing has staged a comeback in recent yearsa renaissance some have called it.

2012-06-21 00:00:00 Will Quantitative Easing Lead to Higher Inflation? by Keith Wade, James Bilson of Schroder Investment Management

In certain circles, talk of Quantitative Easing (QE) immediately triggers thoughts of Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe. The only beneficiaries of turning to the printing presses, it is suggested, will be wheelbarrow salesmen. Whilst extreme inflation seems an exceptionally low risk event, there are legitimate concerns over the impact of the huge expansion of the monetary base on future inflation. In this Talking Point, we examine the key signals to watch out for in assessing future inflation risks.

2012-06-19 00:00:00 Is China Running Out of Steam? by Matthew Rubin, Ing-Chea Ang, Justin Gaines of Neuberger Berman

The Chinese growth story is especially impressive. At a time when many economies have struggled, China has continued to expand rapidly, helped by its dominant position in manufacturing, growing middle class and, after the 2008 credit crisis, its successful injections of capital and stimulus to ward off recession. Nevertheless, recent data have suggested that the Chinese expansion is now slowing more quickly than most investors expected.

2012-06-12 00:00:00 Kingdoms of the Blind by Michael Lewitt (Article)

Recent events offer a rare illustration of the combined effects of the failure of monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy to coordinate a meaningful response. Rising budget deficits, record low interest rates, J.P. Morgan's proprietary trading blunder and the botched Facebook IPO process speak to abject policy failures in virtually every aspect of finance. It's not even a question of not having learned our lessons; our collective policy intelligence actually appears to have diminished.

2012-06-05 00:00:00 Letters to the Editor by Various (Article)

A number of readers respond to our article, Can Krugman Fix Our Economy?, which appeared last week.

2012-05-31 00:00:00 The Global Industrial Sector: Have Profit Margins Peaked? by John Longhurst of PIMCO

Factors driving profit margin expansion in the industrial sector include globalization, EM capital expenditures, a focus on profitability and global labour arbitrage. Potential headwinds include a slowdown in global growth drivers, rising labour rates and global deleveraging. We believe profit margins are most at risk in product areas where EM companies are benefiting from state capitalism and seek to take local advantages global.

2012-05-30 00:00:00 Delayed Entitlement: The Changing Economics of Retirement by Tom Streiff of PIMCO

Its a foregone conclusion that Baby Boomers retirements will be very different from the retirements of their parents. To understand how, we need to explore the impact of the most recent financial events on Baby Boomers. The conventional wisdom is that as the leading edge of Boomers converged on age 65, their associated retirements are well underway and the economic and societal effects of this demographic-driven, transfer-payment-promised contingent are just beginning. In the next three to five years we should face a rapid and unprecedented expansion of entitlement expenditures.

2012-05-22 00:00:00 Return to Normalcy: The False Argument of "Austerity" vs. Growth by Team of Institutional Risk Analyst

To rescue Europe, to reinvigorate the United States, and to set the global economy on a sustainable path toward expansion, the current debate offers a so-called "choice": either slash government spending or spend your way to growth. In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is one of the most prominent proponents of fiscal restraint -- in part because Germany is picking up the tab for the continent's debt crisis. And in the United States, economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman is the fullest-throated supporter of more government spending.

2012-05-18 00:00:00 U.S. Large Cap Value Investment Commentary As of April 30, 2012 by Team of Cohen & Steers

The economic expansion is likely to continue, but at a pace that is modest both in absolute terms and relative to previous recoveries. Many stocks are still attractively valued, in our view, and they have the potential to advance in the coming months. At the same time we are watchful of global economic developments, particularly in Europe and the Middle East. A winding down of monetary stimulus (such as the Federal Reserves Operation Twist program) could create headwinds.

2012-05-15 00:00:00 Ponzi's Children by Michael Lewitt (Article)

Europe, whose economic condition is nothing less than terminal, is about to receive what physicians refer to as a 'zetz' of morphine in the form of M. Hollande. A 'zetz' is the final dose that doctors give to dying patients to hasten their passage to the afterlife. In Europe's case, however, the medicine is not going to be painless, and its administration is not based on mercy but on resentment and stupidity.

2012-05-14 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Celebrations normally reserved for heroic events or political ascension have been breaking out during earnings season, as first quarter (2012) portfolio valuations accelerated and year-over-year comparisons show margin expansion. Doing what they do best, market pundits have been turning flax into gold, proclaiming that the recovery has begun. Another anecdotal elixir. One always wonders whether the chicken or the egg comes first. In this case, proclaiming it to be so precedes the actual fact.

2012-05-08 00:00:00 Q2 Outlook: "Sell in May" May Not Work This Year by OppenheimerFunds (Article)

Chief Economist Jerry Webman explains why he believes the U.S. economic recovery is real and CIO Art Steinmetz talks about how stocks are as cheap compared to bonds as they have been in decades.

2012-05-07 00:00:00 The Labor Market Outlook by Scott Brown of Raymond James Equity Research

The April Employment Report disappointed stock market participants. However, it really wasnt a bad report. Private-sector job growth has been moderately strong this year. The Household Survey data suggest that the economic expansion has been strong enough to absorb the growth in the working-age population, but not enough to take up much of the labor market slack that was generated during the downturn. These figures tell us nothing about where the labor market is headed. Job growth over the next six months will have important implications for investors and for the November election.

2012-05-07 00:00:00 Economic Insights: Earnings GrowthIs It Enough? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

After two-plus years of exceeding expectations, earnings this year seem poised to reflect the plodding nature of this economic recovery. In 2010 and 2011, even as the real economy managed only a paltry 2.4% average annual rate of expansion, the earnings of S&P 500 companies soared, rising more than 47% in 2010 and almost 20% in 2011. This year, the slow fundamentals will surely assert themselves. There is nothing ominous in the pattern. It is, after all, well-established historically that earnings should come into line with slower-growing revenues in this, the third year of economic recovery.

2012-05-01 00:00:00 Q2 Outlook: by OppenheimerFunds (Article)

Chief Economist Jerry Webman explains why he believes the U.S. economic recovery is real and CIO Art Steinmetz talks about how stocks are as cheap compared to bonds as they have been in decades.

2012-04-24 00:00:00 Bruce Greenwald on Structural Imbalances in the Economy by Eric Uhlfelder (Article)

Bruce Greenwald likes to say that he is constituted to disagree with everybody about everything, and he was true to his word at the recent Hyman P. Minksy Conference in New York. Taking immediate exception with the virtually unanimous characterization of the economic crisis as a balance-sheet recession, Greenwald, a professor of finance at Columbia University, argued that, far from being unusual, balance-sheet recessions can in fact be found at the heart of almost all business cycles.

2012-04-24 00:00:00 Chinas Growing Pains by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Among all the fears discussed in the financial community these days, worries over Chinas expansion loom large. The government in Beijing has revised down its growth expectations to 78% a year from the former breakneck pace of 1012%. Private groups, such as the American Chamber of Commerce in China, have made similar downward adjustments in their expectations. Though there is good reason to anticipate a slowdown in the pace of Chinese growth, it would be a mistake to exaggerate the risks, and especially to do so by drawing easy parallels to Americas real estate debacle.

2012-04-18 00:00:00 Forget about Spring, it Feels Like Summer by Philip Tasho of TAMRO Capital

Stocks sizzled in the first three months of 2012, delivering the best first quarter return since 1998, as measured by the S&P 500. Last month we suggested that perhaps we have seen this movie before; a strong first quarter in the markets followed by a sharp correction as fundamentals weakened. Is it different this time? We are optimistic the economic expansion will follow through. Why? We see consumers slowly waking up from their four-year slumber. Looking at retail sales growth, consumer spending has improved, while U.S. unemployment has receded to 8.2% as of March.

2012-04-18 00:00:00 Emerging Market Brands: From Backstage to Center Stage by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton

If the growth of the emerging market consumer class persists, it should translate into more clout for local consumer brands. The global emerging markets middle class is anticipated to grow from 430 million in 2000 to 1.2 billion by 2030.3 By some estimates, China and India are expected to account for two-thirds of the expansion in emerging markets.2 Its not a given, but such a large group of people with diverse tastes in consumer goods could be a boon to emerging brands over the long term.

2012-04-17 00:00:00 Muppet Capers by Michael Lewitt (Article)

Investors enjoyed strong stock market and credit market gains during the first quarter of the year, but storm clouds may be forming on the horizon. Corporate profits have likely peaked. Stocks may be the best house in a bad neighborhood, but houses in that neighborhood appear to be fully priced for now. There are also some troubling signs in the bond markets, particularly the long end.

2012-04-10 00:00:00 Jobs 'Stunner' Not Much of a Surprise by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

The number of new jobs created last month was downright disappointing, but maybe it should not have come as such a surprise. Job growth and improvements in the unemployment rate had been moving at a faster clip than modest economic expansion could support, a phenomenon that seemed to defy history and economic theory. Okun's Law suggests that the job market will be depressed for some time because GDP growth has been less than robust. The pullback we are seeing is not cause for alarm, however. The economy is growing and jobs are being created, but there will be fits and starts along the way.

2012-04-10 00:00:00 Which Stocks Win on Main Streets Comeback? by Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management

We are very excited about the next three to five years because we believe it is likely that Main Street will start to compete with Wall Street for capital and economic growth will accelerate. Unemployment rates would fall in that scenario and pent-up demand for goods and services could come out of the woodwork among average American households. What we mean by saying this is that capital will begin being demanded for business activities. As capital gets demanded for business activities ranging from housing to business expansion, the cost of capital will rise and bond prices would fall.

2012-04-04 00:00:00 Economic Update by Richard Hoey of Dreyfus

We believe that a full-scale global recession is unlikely, assuming that there is no major oil price spike from a disruption of the flow of Middle East oil. We believe that a key cause of global economic expansion will be the easy monetary policy prevailing in many regions and countries worldwide. We expect a global growth recession in 2012, with declining economic activity in Southern Europe, an economic stall or temporary declines in the U.K. and much of Northern Europe, a moderate slowdown in emerging markets and a U.S. expansion at a near-trend pace in 2012, somewhat faster than last year.

2012-04-03 00:00:00 Fewer, Richer, Greener: Why Jeremy Grantham is (Partly) Wrong by Laurence B. Siegel (Article)

Is the human experience getting better or worse? This is a big question investors are rarely asked to confront, yet its answer has profound consequences for market returns.

2012-03-20 00:00:00 Bob Rodriguez on the Dangers in Today's Markets by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Bob Rodriguez is the managing partner and chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based First Pacific Advisors. In this interview, he discusses how the challenges faced by the US economy will impact the capital markets.

2012-03-20 00:00:00 The Wages of Denial by Michael Lewitt (Article)

Europe is insolvent, and hopelessly so. Her procurer - the European Central Bank (ECB) - can front her some money for a while, but in the end she is either going to have to repay him or suffer a very rough consequence. In the meantime, however, she can continue to entertain her customers, in this case those willing to extend her credit in one form or another. Sooner rather than later, however, these creditors are going to grow tired of her tricks and turn their attention otherwise. At that point, she will be left to deal with the ECB because nobody else will have her.

2012-03-13 00:00:00 Europe's ?Back-door QE?: Good News for Global Bond Investors by OppenheimerFunds, Inc. (Article)

By restoring confidence in the global financial system, the European Central Bank's Long Term Refinancing Operation has allowed global bond investors to participate in attractive opportunities around the world.

2012-03-13 00:00:00 The Gutenberg Economy by Michael Lewitt (Article)

As commentators near and far speculate on what 2012 will bring to the global economy and markets, there is little question that one factor will be decisive: the central banks' printing presses. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep printing dollars and euros around the clock until their presses run out of ink.

2012-03-12 00:00:00 An Overweight to Stocks Is Still Warranted by Bob Doll of BlackRock Investment Management

We believe the macro environment remains equity-friendly and we would argue that it still makes sense to retain overweight positions in stocks. The economic expansion should continue, inflation remains muted and central banks around the world are hyper-focused on maintaining easy monetary policy. Add to this backdrop the fact that stock valuations remain attractive, and the case for sticking with stocks gains strength.

2012-03-09 00:00:00 The Healing Powers of a Weaker Yen by Kenichi Amaki of Matthews Asia

In mid-February, the Bank of Japan surprised markets with an expansion of its Asset Purchase Program, Japans version of quantitative easing. At the same time, the BOJ reworded its stance regarding inflation, revising its quantitative easing understanding to a goal and formally adopting an inflation target of 1%. Equity markets reacted positively, prompting foreign investors to pour more than US$5 billion into Japanese stocks and futures over just a 2-week period. The yen weakened to levels not seen since May 2011, and the currency seems to have broken from its 5-year appreciation trend.

2012-03-07 00:00:00 Winning the War in Europe by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim

Given my view on the global liquidity glut, it probably will come as no surprise that I remain bullish on U.S. investments, including equities, high yield bonds, bank loans and other risk assets, as well as art and collectibles. I believe the United States has entered a period of self-sustaining economic expansion, driven primarily by the aggressive monetary policy of the Fed, which is now being reinforced by the ECB. U.S. growth is necessary to reduce domestic unemployment and to provide support to the struggling economies in Europe and Asia.

2012-03-01 00:00:00 2012: A year in US bonds by David Harris of Schroder Investment Management

There are two new factors that came to the forefront in late 2011 and which are set to influence investments throughout 2012. Indeed, it appears the collective bond market had a series of epiphanies in Q3 that should frame investment activity for some time to come, and these factors are by no means isolated to the US. The first factor is the broad recognition that debt expansion will not be the large driver of economic growth as it has been for the past several decades. The second factor is that political policy pronouncements will often trump economic and credit fundamentals.

2012-02-27 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Historically, its difficult to have economic expansion without job growth, fiscal expansion, and consumer confidence. And yet, despite low interest rates, and a leveling-off of unemployment, we find ourselves in the middle of an economic recession. Of course, phrases like recession, expansion, and depression do not represent points in time, but, rather, periods during which these phenomena occur. So to suggest that we might be in any one of these economic cycles also implies that we must define the time line, the trends direction and magnitude, and our place within it.

2012-02-22 00:00:00 Tick, Tock Goes the Inflation Clock by Chris Maxey of Fortigent

Despite this short-term good news, the cloud hanging over Europe promises to remain for some time. As expected, the first glimpses of fourth quarter GDP reveal a region under severe economic pressure. Growth in the European Union contracted 0.3%, the first such decline since the recession. Most member countries saw their economies shrink, including Germany (-0.2%), Italy (-0.7%), and Spain (-0.3%). On the bright side, France actually surprised consensus with a 0.2% expansion.

2012-02-21 00:00:00 Woody Brock on Solving America's Fiscal Problems by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Dr. Horace 'Woody' Brock is the founder Strategic Economic Decisions, an economic research and consulting service. In this interview, he discusses his recently published book, American Gridlock, and how America can grow its economy through 'good' deficit spending.

2012-02-21 00:00:00 International Equity - January 201 by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices recorded strong gains in January on increased optimism that the global economy is not headed for a significant downturn this year. Markets across all regions, led by Asia, recovered during the month. Emerging markets, which had seen price declines during the second half of last year, outperformed the developed markets. Economic indicators from most regions, except Europe, have been relatively healthy and suggest expansion. EU leaders have now agreed to set tighter fiscal rules for member countries, including limits on fiscal deficits and aggregate public debt.

2012-02-16 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Historically, its difficult to have economic expansion without job growth, fiscal expansion, and consumer confidence. And yet, despite low interest rates, and a leveling-off of unemployment, we find ourselves in the middle of an economic recession. Of course, phrases like recession, expansion, and depression do not represent points in time, but, rather, periods during which these phenomena occur. So to suggest that we might be in any one of these economic cycles also implies that we must define the time line, the trends direction and magnitude, and our place within it.

2012-02-14 00:00:00 Recession: Just How Much Warning is Useful Anyway? by Dwaine van Vuuren (Article)

In December 2011, ECRI dialled down the urgency of the timing of their call to 'within six months.' That raised the question of just how much recession warning is useful when it comes to forecasting equity market performance.

2012-02-09 00:00:00 Economic Update by Richard Hoey of Dreyfus

For 2012, we have three themes and three risk concerns. The three main themes are (1) global growth recession, (2) lower inflation for now and (3) monetary ease. The three main risk concerns are (1) the European financial stresses, (2) the Chinese property market and (3) the Middle East risks, with oil supply vulnerabilities as the main concern. We expect a global growth recession in 2012, rather than either a strong global expansion or a fullscale global recession.

2012-02-03 00:00:00 The U.S. Economy Marches On To An Unsteady Beat by Team of BondWave Advisors

Despite the misgivings by the Fed about the recovery, and with much of Europe teetering on recession, domestic economic data continues to suggest moderate expansion in both output and employment. We discuss this situation along with the positive performance of the Treasury, Corporate and Municipal bond markets.

2012-01-27 00:00:00 The New Conference Board Leading Economic Index by Doug Short (Article)

Yesterday the Conference Board released its latest Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S., an announcement I haven't yet featured with a series of charts and commentary. Frankly, I'm still grappling with the major overhaul of the index, which includes extensive changes that extend to its earliest data in 1959. But here is a first effort at highlighting the changes.

2012-01-24 00:00:00 Economic Update by Richard Hoey of Dreyfus

The most likely outlook for the world economy in 2012 is a global growth recession. The economic outlook reflects disparate trends in different regions: a full-scale recession in Europe, stagnation or moderate recession in the nearby U.K., near-trend growth in the U.S., continued expansion in Japan and moderate slowdowns in China and most other emerging market countries. While European financial stresses are serious, the global shift towards monetary ease should help mitigate the spillover effect. The result should be a global growth recession rather than either a full-scale global recession.

2012-01-17 00:00:00 Martin Wolf on the Eurozone and Beyond by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Martin Wolf is widely considered to be one of the world's most influential writers on economics. Since joining the Financial Times in 1987, where he is chief economics commentator, he has received numerous awards for excellence in financial journalism. In this interview, he discusses the Eurozone crisis and prospects for global economic growth.

2012-01-17 00:00:00 GMO: Something's Fishy in China by Robert Huebscher (Article)

A wide gulf separates the two most prominent views regarding China's future. Faced with slowing economic growth, one side says its leaders will deftly navigate a soft landing, while the other claims it will face an implosion similar to those that befell Japan 20 years ago and the US in 2008. Count GMO, a firm that has built its reputation on its ability to identify a bubble about to pop, in the latter camp.

2012-01-17 00:00:00 An Essential Client Conversation ?Will I be able to pay for my hip replacement at age 85?? by Dan Richards (Article)

Advisors face a big challenge in planning for boomers. Your assumptions about how long they'll live and the nature and cost of their lifestyle as they age will dramatically impact your planning decisions. Conversations with boomers about those topics and about the implications of funding health care are difficult but important.

2012-01-17 00:00:00 A Nobel Laureate?s View on the US A Debt Problem, but an Unemployment Crisis by Dan Richards (Article)

Peter Diamond is a professor emeritus at MIT and the winner of the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on unemployment and labor market policy. In this interview, he discusses the degree to which US unemployment is a structural problem and whether it can be reduced through fiscal stimulus. This is the transcript of the interview.

2012-01-17 00:00:00 Thinking About the Implications of Rising Euro-Exit Risks by Myles Bradshaw of PIMCO

Even if the euro survives this crisis intact, the market will price in uncertainty as the crisis evolves. Scenario planning is indispensable for investors. Politics may prevent the European Central Bank from buying government bonds, but it could provide funding support via a special government or banking intermediary. This balance sheet expansion could be a negative for the euro. Within the eurozone we believe investors should look at alternatives to the government sector, including agency, regional government and covered bonds.

2012-01-13 00:00:00 Euro Fears by Richard Michaud of New Frontier Advisors

Global investing is likely to be very challenging in the year ahead. While the euro has so far been resilient, many eurozone countries face substantive debt refinancing in the coming year. Given the current political, structural, and economic reality there is no simple cure to the euro crisis. The ECBs evolving pursuit of liquidity policies and potential interest rate cuts may be helpful, but major political changes may be necessary. Beyond Europe, the remainder of the global economy may be very dependent on a continuing expansion of the American economy and improving consumer demand.

2012-01-11 00:00:00 Emerging Asia Pacific: Economic Review 4th Quarter 2011 by Team of Thomas White International

Emerging Asia Pacifics economic expansion slowed considerably beginning in October 2011. In many economies, export growth along with investments grew at their slowest pace since the summer of 2009. Although the Purchasing Managers Index improved across key economies in November the index was still under the 50 mark, which generally means a contraction in manufacturing activity. Almost all the countries in emerging Asia Pacific posted slower third quarter expansion over the year-ago period.

2012-01-10 00:00:00 Gundlach on the Key Risk for Bond Investors by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Watch out if you own a bond fund that underperformed its benchmark by 2% or more last year, as most did. Rather than put their careers at risk by suffering a second year of poor performance, those fund managers will turn to indexation, according to DoubleLine?s Jeffrey Gundlach. And since the Barclay?s Aggregate Index holds nearly 35% of its assets in Treasury bonds with near-zero yields, its investors will endure poor returns.

2012-01-10 00:00:00 Using the ECRI WLI to Flag Recessions by Dwaine van Vuuren (Article)

In September 2011, the ECRI proclaimed a new U.S recession would begin sometime in the coming year. It based its prediction on a host of its own internal long-leading indexes, together with its widely followed weekly leading index (WLI). I want to focus on the proper use of the WLI and examine its accuracy in recession dating, in order to put this current recession call into context.

2012-01-04 00:00:00 Towards the Paranormal by Bill Gross of PIMCO

The New Normal, previously believed to be bell-shaped and thin-tailed in its depiction of growth probability and financial market outcomes, appears to be morphing into a world of fat-tailed, almost bimodal outcomes. A new duality credit and zero-bound interest rate risk, characterizes the financial markets of 2012, offering the fat left-tailed possibility of unforeseen policy delevering or the fat right-tailed possibility of central bank inflationary expansion. Until the outcome becomes clear, investors should consider ways to hedge their bets.

2012-01-03 00:00:00 US Recession - An Opposing View by Dwaine van Vuuren (Article)

A large number of reputable analysts and companies are forecasting a new U.S recession on the immediate horizon. Attracting the most attention is ECRI, which made a public recession call on September 30th and several television reaffirmations since. But an examination of a broader range of other composite economic indicators shows that sole reliance on ECRI's forecast would be misplaced.

2012-01-03 00:00:00 The Triumph of Optimism by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim

Over the course of history there is a certain triumph of optimism. Betting against the column of progress of human history and the innovation of mankind has always proven to be a losing proposition. In the short run, there are times to become cautious, as the past five years have exemplified. Broad-based economic expansion and its attendant outsize investment returns follow contraction and panic just as the day follows the night. As dark as the current environment may seem, the sun will come up tomorrow. When it does, I believe it will shine favorably on the optimists of today.

2011-12-22 00:00:00 Continued Austerity to Hamper EU Growth by Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors

The euro zone will continue to struggle as fiscal dieting and debt reduction are likely to mean slim chances of economic expansion, but strong consumption trends in emerging markets may temper their ill effects. The European Central Bank (ECB) is at the heart of market solutions to the European Union (EU) crisis but stands resolute against printing money to alleviate debt. Despite the ongoing crisis, there are many growing and profitable opportunities for European corporates especially in emerging markets.

2011-12-21 00:00:00 Time for the Fed's Public Service Announcement by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Jitters over Europe's debt crisis once again sent investors fleeing despite mounting evidence of economic expansion in the U.S. While the Fed has prudently kept interest rates at historical lows, an explicit call to action for investors is needed.

2011-12-20 00:00:00 Dennis Gartman Explains His Call on Gold by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Dennis Gartman has been publishing his daily commentary, The Gartman Letter, since 1987. He's been in the news lately because of a call he made last week on the price of gold. In this interview, he discusses the reasons behind that forecast.

2011-12-02 00:00:00 The Markets are Encouraged by the Actions of the Worlds Central Banks by Thomas S. White, Jr. of Thomas White International

Six of the worlds major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, this week announced an expansion of a program to increase the availability of U.S. dollars to European banks and lower their cost of borrowing these funds. While this action was not designed to solve the central challenge the European governments are experiencing - the spiking interest rates they must pay when issuing their sovereign debt - it will likely calm the tangential problems this has caused within the European banking system.

2011-11-28 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

While traders, investors, and politicos prepare for their Thanksgiving travel plans, the week should be anything but dull. HP highlights the earnings reports as shareholders try to figure out the future of its PC biz. The Fed releases minutes from the last policy meeting so economists can view the dissension in its midst in determining if and when Bernanke and Co. will act again. GDP headlines the economic releases and some analysts expect a slight downward revision to the initial 2.5% reported expansion rate in the third quarter.

2011-11-22 00:00:00 Debt Story by Scott Brown of Raymond James Equity Research

Loan growth plays a key role in economic expansion. Simply put: no loan growth, no economic growth. However, theres a downside. Debt doesnt matter until it does. Debt has played a key part in the economic downturn and in the gradual recovery. Europes sovereign debt crisis has continued to escalate, with no easy way out. In the U.S., the government has borrowed more, but the markets have not punished it for doing so. Theres no sign that that is going to change anytime soon.

2011-11-08 00:00:00 Bill Gross' Revised Paradigm: The New Normal Minus by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Following the financial crisis of 2008, PIMCO articulated its 'new normal' forecast of slow growth and mediocre capital market returns. Appending the even drearier modifier 'minus' to that outlook, Bill Gross said that expectations now appear worse than even he previously feared. Gross was pessimistic in both the near and long terms, and he startled the audience with his premonition that 'capitalism is at risk.'

2011-11-01 00:00:00 Just When You Thought Europe was Rescued, New Skeletons Emerge by Chris Maxey of Fortigent

Economic data in the US will receive plenty of attention this week. On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Survey is released, with economists anticipating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Wednesdays ADP private payroll employment report will offer a taste of what is to come in Fridays nonfarm payroll employment report for October. Consensus expectations are for job growth of slightly less than 100,000 and an unemployment rate of 9.1%.

2011-10-24 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

The Fed, and a majority of global state treasuries, have made the decision that keeping money inexpensive is at least one of the tools they can use both to sustain economic growth. This policy has been a boon to those with money, and a severe hindrance to those without. A vexing conundrum exists when monetary policy is designed to promote the flow of money into dynamic expansion but the spigot gets blocked because psychology and momentum are running in the opposite direction. In the meantime savings rates have nearly disappeared, along with whatever savings the losers in this game had.

2011-10-18 00:00:00 Bob Doll: Why the US is Positioned Strongly by BlackRock (Article)

Investor unease has risen dramatically over the past quarter in the face of growing concerns about the world's economic and financial health. The focal point has been the intensifying debt crisis in Europe. The issues facing Europe are highly complex, but essentially are underscored by a single question: Is Europe facing a solvency crisis or a liquidity crisis?

2011-10-11 00:00:00 A Critical Look at Obama?s Economic Team by Laurence B. Siegel (Article)

Confidence Men is an exposé, by the reporter Ron Suskind, of what he claims is incompetence, infighting, and insubordination at the highest levels of economic leadership in the Obama administration during the global financial crisis. Those accusations are largely misdirected. After all, there was no playbook for the administration's economic thinkers to work from - the rapidly unfolding crisis forced them to improvise.

2011-10-11 00:00:00 The Global ?Old Normal? by Michael Nairne (Article)

Amidst a torrent of dismal economic news and plunging stock prices, investment horizons have become increasingly short-sighted. The new normal of faltering growth and painful deleveraging appears to be only too true. However, investors capable of taking a long-term, global view will find forces at work that will likely drive resurgent world growth akin to that which occurred in the decades right after World War II.

2011-10-07 00:00:00 Market Turmoil by Richard Michaud of New Frontier Advisors

A promising market expansion was stilled by ugly politics in Washington and Brussels. While both domestic and European crises were largely political rather than economic, the consequences rattled investor confidence in capital values worldwide. As in the U.S., agency issues are the root cause of the European debt crisis. The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis resulted from agents paid to issue mortgages without considering the ability of borrowers to pay back the loans. Similarly, European bank agents ignored the default risk of euro-based Greek government.

2011-10-06 00:00:00 A Treatise for Taylor by Michael Goodson of Wolf Group Capital Advisors

Last week my granddaughter, Taylor, was born. I began musing about what kind of life Taylor might expect to have. Despite all the negative talk I suspect that Taylor will be grateful to live in this country. The U.S. economy is still the worlds largest by a large margin, and per capita GDP is still envied by most of the world. During her lifetime, the expansion in innovation and technological gains is hard to imagine. The big picture issues we fret and fuss about now will likely have little impact on her ability to find happiness and contentment.

2011-10-05 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

A fixation with tangible metals is both forward looking as well as reflective melancholy. Because the price of commodities had risen in the past, people might expect it to do so again. In the case of commodities trends lose their appeal when everyone already knows that the valuations have become inflated. In todays case we have been in a twelve year commodities price expansion. While some might try to eke out the last few cycles of profit within that trend, others wonder how much greedier can the trend enthusiasts be. There are no linear cycles that last forever and no free lunches.

2011-09-26 00:00:00 Corporate Cash by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

It will take time before a return of confidence can move matters beyond the recent, tentative expressions. Cash and the lack of confidence it reflects remain high. But investors should, nonetheless, remain aware of the tremendous potential for dramatic expansion in corporate spending, hiring, and M&A activity from even a modest improvement in confidence. Especially since equity market valuations these days make it cheaper to buy than to build, the M&A potential, with its always immediate market impact, looks particularly powerful.

2011-09-22 00:00:00 Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators Could Show US Economy is Not Contracting by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Of all the economic reports coming out this week, Im most closely watching for the latest US weekly jobless claim numbers and the new leading indicators data, due out Thursday. Both will give further confirmation on the near-term state of the economy. As Ive mentioned before, I expect that the US economy is most likely going to experience an anemic expansion, rather than another recession. Recent economic reports have so far confirmed my view. I believe the new data this week will similarly show that the while the US economic recovery has stalled, the economy is not contracting.

2011-09-16 00:00:00 China as an Asset Class by Henry Zhang and Robert Horrocks of Matthews Asia

China's economic expansion over the last 30 years has allowed many enterprises to prosper. For a number of investors, Chinese stocks have also grown in importance. As modern capital markets have taken root in China, stock markets have become one of the primary channels for companies to raise capital. While China's capital market is still early in its development and has its own risks and challenges, the country is expected to continue to grow and increasingly influence world economies. For a variety of reasons, we believe China is emerging as an investment asset class in its own right.

2011-09-16 00:00:00 Latest Data Points to Anemic Expansion, Not a Recession by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Some market watchers are interpreting the fact that US consumer confidence remained extremely low last week as a sign that the chances of a sustained recovery have diminished. In my opinion, however, theyre focusing on the wrong numbers among the slew of economic data released Thursday. The right numbers to focus on: new figures from the Federal Reserve that confirm that while economic activity is stalling, we are not yet seeing credible evidence of a double dip.

2011-09-13 00:00:00 The Handicap of Experienced Investors by J.J. Abodeely, CFA, CAIA (Article)

In the investment business, assets under management are concentrated with the largest and most established firms. Understandably, investors tend to allocate capital to managers after they've established a good track record. Unfortunately, for many, the analysis stops there. By failing to separate good results from identification of what makes a great investment manager, investors are primed for disappointment.

2011-09-13 00:00:00 The Risks of Exchange-Traded Products by Dennis Gibb (Article)

Every major financial crisis has been foretold by timely but ultimately ignored warnings. At the end of mania, the rush to secure more fees, investment performance and status trumps common sense. In the last few months, the drumbeats of warnings from financial journals and regulators about exchange-traded funds have been sounding. Few seem to be listening.

2011-09-13 00:00:00 A Response to 'A Winning Endgame' by Guy Cumbie (Article)

A Winning Endgame, Robert Huebscher's review of John Mauldin's book Endgame, made some highly problematic claims about our energy usage. Moreover, Huebscher's claim is unfounded that an energy policy, such as the cap-and-trade policy he recommended, is the right step toward solving our economic crisis.

2011-09-06 00:00:00 Its the Jobs, Stupid! Part VI by Komal Sri-Kumar of TCW Asset Management

The zero U.S. job growth also had an impact beyond its own borders. Even though U.S. markets were closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday, Asian and European equity markets fell sharply on growing fears that the data release signaled the beginning of a U.S. recession. (Concerns about the solvency of the European banking system were the other reason for the market setback.) The United States and the European Union each account for about one-quarter of world GDP, and emerging markets cannot maintain global growth despite their faster pace of expansion.

2011-08-30 00:00:00 Scenarios for a Stock Market Bottom by Keith C. Goddard, CFA (Article)

A probability-based forecast for the U.S. stock market between now and 2013 can be constructed using historical relationships between stock prices, earnings and dividends. This yields a matrix of possible outcomes for the S&P 500 Index over the next two years.

2011-08-29 00:00:00 Banks Lending at Last by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Amid the many signs of economic weakness, the recent rise in bank lending stands as a welcome contrary indicator. Policy makers at the Fed no doubt see the news as significant. Certainly, a willingness among banks to lend actively to companies and to individuals does much to build confidence that the economic expansion can continue. Bernanke has on many occasions identified bank lending as a crucial sign that past stimulative policy has gained traction. Growth in bank loans should give the Fed comfort about its past efforts to exercise patience with a QE3.

2011-08-23 00:00:00 A Fundamental Investment Strategy for Today's Environment by Robert Huebscher (Article)

We spoke with Tim Hartch and Michael Keller, who are co-managers of the Morningstar 5-star BBH Core Select Fund (BBTEX) from Brown Brothers Harriman. The fund's strategy is strictly bottom-up, with investments in established, cash-generative businesses that are leading providers of essential products and services with strong management teams and loyal customers.

2011-08-16 00:00:00 A Commentary on the Correction by Michael Nairne (Article)

Market corrections are always painful and this one particularly so because of the lingering anxiety from memories of the 2008-2009 market crash. I explore the history of stock market corrections and examines the dynamics of the recent downturn as well as actions that may be warranted, depending on individual circumstances.

2011-08-09 00:00:00 Does Government Intervention in Financial Markets Slow Economic Growth? by Michael Edesess (Article)

As we saw with the Dodd-Frank legislation and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the question underlying the debate over financial regulation is whether it stifles economic growth. Leo F. Goodstadt's book, Reluctant Regulators, provides useful insights from the experiences of Hong Kong and China. It also causes us to ponder whether our measurement of economic growth is fundamentally flawed.

2011-07-19 00:00:00 Global Overview: July 2011 by Team of Thomas White International

The most recent economic indicators suggest a moderation in global economic activity growth, and forecasts for the current year have been lowered. Manufacturing activity decelerated for the second successive month in June across most major economies, except the U.S. Even Japan, which was expected to bounce back, reported slower growth. Among the emerging economies, economies suggest a decline in the pace of expansion. Consumer sentiment has weakened across the developed world over concerns about income growth as the labor market slipped again in select countries, most notably in the U.S.

2011-07-18 00:00:00 The Consumer Marches On by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

With recession fears again gripping financial markets, it pays to take another look at the American consumer. At more than 70% of the economy, he and she will determine the direction and the pace of the economy. And despite the current gloom abroad, the picture that emerges from this examination, though far from robust, carries the expectation of continued, if slow expansion, especially since consumer spending has good income support. Though many other economic measures have weakened of late and depressed the view of economic prospects, the consumer has shown remarkable consistency.

2011-07-13 00:00:00 Treading Water by Richard Michaud of New Frontier Advisors

While unemployment remains high, corporate balance sheets are healthier, Wall Street de-leveraging is proceeding, savings rates are up, and many strategists currently consider equities cheap.The lackluster performance of domestic equities in the quarter was associated with negative returns in financials, a symptom of the continuing de-leveraging process and new regulations worldwide. However, the underlying conditions for a long sustained business expansion do not seem in-place. A cyclical expansion, typically lasting roughly four years, seems a reasonable, though far from certain, scenario.

2011-07-12 00:00:00 Middle East/Africa: Economic Review June 2011 by Team of Thomas White International

The Arab Spring brought with it waves of revolution, disrupting economies of almost all the countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. While governments of Tunisia and Egypt look to pick up the pieces, continued rumblings of unrest are heard from Bahrain, Libya, Syria and Yemen. The World Bank expects the lowest growth in Egypt and Tunisia, clocking in at 1 percent and 1.5 percent respectively, in 2011. However, despite uncertainty, these two economies are projected to improve in 2012 and witness economic expansion of around 5 percent in 2013.

2011-06-16 00:00:00 The Good Old Days by Liam Molloy and Bethany Carlson of Galway Investment Strategy

The news of late indicates we are indeed in the midst of an economic slow patch (as we were this same time last year). This cyclical pause occurs in the context of a secular de-leveraging here in the US, which results in a healthy albeit modest expansion. The lack of job creation in the most recent BLS report and a general longing for ?better days? has left many nostalgic for the good old days. The problem is the old days were just awful. Many of the gripes today really are nothing new. The great wealth disparity between rich and poor is an example.

2011-06-14 00:00:00 Bruce Berkowitz - Ignoring the Crowd on Financials by Sam Parl (Article)

Bruce Berkowitz has said that his deep value and contrarian investing style will not guarantee short-term results, but he promises his shareholders will be rewarded for their patience over the long term. Last week, he explained why some of his positions - especially those in the financial services sector - are among the best opportunities in the market.

2011-06-14 00:00:00 Global Overview: June 2011 by Team of Thomas White International

Slower manufacturing growth triggers fears of another global economic downturn. Even as the global economy appeared to have entered a phase of stable growth, the unexpected slowdown in global manufacturing activity during the month of May has led to fears of another economic downturn. Activity indicators declined the most in developed economies where growth was expected to gain pace this year. However, unless the trend persists, it is more likely that the moderation in manufacturing activity growth is only a readjustment after several months of rapid expansion.

2011-06-10 00:00:00 Pause or Panic? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Economic data has deteriorated to the point that talk of a double dip recession has returned. The risk of another recession is low as most indicators remain well in expansion territory. Several factors are contributing to a soft patch, but a rebound is likely in the latter part of 2011. Along with talk of recession risk, chatter about the need for QE3 by the Fed has increased. The bar is quite high for QE3, but it is very likely the Fed will not let its balance sheet shrink in the near-term. Global growth is decelerating as well, with China tightening and Japan dealing with reconstruction.

2011-06-07 00:00:00 And That?s The Week That Was ? by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

As we warned last week and over the past couple of months, the poor quality of the economic expansion finally has caught up to the economic statistics. Last Friday?s dismal report showing a jump in the unemployment rate to 9.1% left all of the cheerleaders from Warren Buffet to the Secretary of Labor scrambling for explanations. Given the lack of earnings or merger news, the stock market recorded its fifth straight weekly decline. As the charts illustrate, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite dropped around 2.3% last week in response to the now obvious slowdown.

2011-06-06 00:00:00 Handicapping QE3 by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds

As disappointing economic news mounted last week, the attention of market participants immediately turned to policy responses - will the Fed embark on QE3? In my view, there are three central questions relevant to this issue. The first is simply this: Has QE2 been successful in a way that the economy should desire more of it? The second: How much scope for intervention does the Fed have left? The third: Is Bernanke so invested in this attempt at balance-sheet expansion that he will push forward an extension of the policy despite its economic ineffectiveness and speculative distortions?

2011-06-01 00:00:00 Recovery Shows Signs of Cracking by Chris Maxey of Fortigent

There was a limited amount of economic data released last week, and most of it turned out to be disappointing. The second revision to GDP showed the economy growing at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter. Though the headline figure was unchanged, several important changes occurred in the data. Specifically, the Bureau of Economic Analysis stated that consumer demand actually rose at a 2.2% annual pace in the quarter, down from the 2.7% annual rate reported. Overall, GDP was weaker than feared in the first quarter as higher inventories and not consumer spending drove expansion.

2011-05-24 00:00:00 Risks Are Rising, but the Long-Term View Remains Positive by Bob Doll of BlackRock Investment Management

The recently weaker tone in equity markets can be attributed to a broad slowdown in economic data. A longer-term retrospective view shows that the pace of economic growth has been gradually fading over the past several months. Some of the decline can be explained by seasonal factors or factors that may prove to be temporary. In any case, however, at this juncture it appears that the recovery or acceleration phase of the business cycle may be ending. We believe the economy is now shifting into an expansion mode, and the question will become how long that expansion will last.

2011-05-16 00:00:00 The End of QE2 Should Be a Non-Event for Investors by Bob Doll of BlackRock Investment Management

Stock markets were flat-to-down last week as economic data continued to be mixed. In other markets, commodity prices continued to fall and the US dollar moved higher. While we do not believe that the long-term secular uptrend in commodity prices has ended, we do think that the cooling effect could be in place for some time, which will hopefully be a positive for both economic growth and stocks. Data suggests that the global economy has slowed recently, but we believe that it is still in the midst of transitioning from recovery to self-sustaining expansion.

2011-04-26 00:00:00 Why Demographics will Drive Global Growth by Sam Parl (Article)

When economic pundits trade heated predictions about the massive economic shifts we see internationally, it is easy to forget the subtleties that shade their forecasts. One such shadow overhanging any intelligent debate about our global economic future is global age demographics, according to Harvard Professor Richard Cooper.

2011-04-05 00:00:00 A Trading System that Disproves Efficient Markets by Erik McCurdy (Article)

Efficient market adherents claim it is impossible to outperform the stock market over the long term. Although their principles are the foundation of modern investment theory, other compelling models, including the one I propose here, reveal that precisely the opposite is true, supporting the thesis that markets are highly inefficient.

2011-04-05 00:00:00 Employment Manufactures Another Month of Positive Growth by Chris Maxey of Fortigent

Equity markets surged into quarter end, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.4% and the Dow Jones increasing 1.3%. For the first time since Feb the S&P 500 increased in two weeks. After hitting a trough on Tuesday morning, several positive employment reports encouraged the equity markets to move higher. As expected, manufacturing activity had a deceleration, as the ISM Purchasing Managers Index fell from 61.4% in February to 61.2% in March. Readings above 50% are representative of expansion in the manufacturing sector. Although the index fell, it is still the third highest reading since 1990.

2011-03-28 00:00:00 Will The Job Market Rev Up? by Scott Brown of Raymond James Equity Research

Over the last year, the level of job destruction has trended very low. The problem has been a lack of job creation. Normally we look to small, newer firms to account for the bulk of new hiring in an expansion. However, small firms have been constrained by a variety of forces, the most significant being tight credit. That may be starting to change. The job market has a strong seasonal component. The next couple of months will be key to the outlook for jobs and the overall economy.

2011-03-15 00:00:00 Running on Empty by Michael Lewitt (Article)

Despite the increasing undercurrent of negative news creeping into the financial markets, the stock market remains strong. HCM expects equities to continue to perform well for the foreseeable future (i.e. through the end of June) although most of this letter will discuss the reasons why it shouldn't. In some ways, this market is a lot like Charlie Sheen. It pretends to have tiger blood and the powers of a warlock, but deep inside it is suffering from an addiction to a substance (i.e. debt) that will ultimately kill it.

2011-03-11 00:00:00 Americas: Economic Review February 2011 by Team of Thomas White International

Rising energy prices, due to the political upheavals in the Middle East, are becoming the primary economic risk for the Americas region. While the subdued inflationary trends will provide banks leeway to hold interest rates, they may be forced to advance their rate hikes if prices rise at a faster rate. In contrast, several of the emerging economies are expected to slow down this year. These economies may see interest rates rising faster, which may slow their pace of expansion even more. Also, higher interest rates will likely keep their currencies stronger and may restrict export growth.

2011-03-07 00:00:00 Random Post-Employment Thoughts and Consensus On Oil Impact by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

The consensus is that the U.S. labor market is healing. That may well be the case but the slack in the job market remains huge allowing for a structural rise in the unemployment rate. Only 15% of the recession job losses have been recouped despite the fact that expansion has surpassed the downturn. The consensus is that the world economy has gotten used to high levels of oil prices so this latest run-up in crude poses little risk to the economic outlook. But it is change that matters to growth, not levels. As for the macro impact, do not understate the potential for economic contraction.

2011-03-04 00:00:00 The Job Market, Oil Prices, and the Fed by Scott Brown of Raymond James Equity Research

Higher oil prices have raised new concerns about the strength of the economic recovery. If sustained, the rise in gasoline prices will restrain the pace of economic growth noticeably, but does not appear to be large enough (so far) to derail the expansion. Meanwhile, a federal government shutdown looms as lawmakers bicker over the future path of expenditures. Austerity at all levels of government is well-intentioned, but is not advisable at this point in the economic recovery.

2011-02-25 00:00:00 Oil And Vinegar by Scott Brown of Raymond James Equity Research

Higher oil prices have raised new concerns about the strength of the economic recovery. If sustained, the rise in gasoline prices will restrain the pace of economic growth noticeably, but does not appear to be large enough (so far) to derail the expansion. Meanwhile, a federal government shutdown looms as lawmakers bicker over the future path of expenditures. Austerity at all levels of government is well-intentioned, but is not advisable at this point in the economic recovery.

2011-02-22 00:00:00 Investment Commentary by Bob Doll of BlackRock Investment Management

The bearish view of the current rally is that it is liquidity-driven and based on artificial propping-up by overly easy monetary and fiscal policy support. While we agree that the stimulus from the Federal Reserve and other policy makers has been an important pillar in helping to restore economic growth and drive risk asset prices higher, we also believe that the economy is transitioning into a self-sustaining expansion. In our opinion, this environment of improving growth, low inflation and a supportive policy backdrop continues to represent a ?sweet spot? for risk assets.

2011-02-19 00:00:00 Let Yourself Feel Good Again by Doug MacKay of Broadleaf Partners

The stock market has continued to perform exceedingly well so far in 2011 and is now up roughly 7% year to date. While an oil spill or European contagion type event could always disrupt the progression, the stock market, S&P 500 profit levels, and leading economic indicators are all pointing to a similar conclusion. The economy is likely to graduate from its recovery phase to an outright expansion sometime this year. It's time to start letting yourself feel good again.

2011-02-14 00:00:00 What Will Propel Equities Further? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

The positive outlook for equities draws on many sources, but basically rests on two pillars: 1) continued economic growth that will sustain an earnings expansion and 2) still-favorable valuations prevail, despite the great rally since March 2009. Neither point, of course, is beyond complaint. Nothing in any investment outlook is absolutely secure. Now, as ever, prospects are overshadowed by a cloud of risks. But the likelihoods still favor the earnings growth and a favorable response from equity markets.

2011-02-08 00:00:00 Undoing Meredith Whitney's Damage by Hildy Richelson, Ph.D. (Article)

Meredith Whitney did the municipal bond market an immense disservice with her misguided comments on 60 Minutes when she predicted massive defaults. Two recent articles in this publication provided accurate rebuttals to her analysis, but they failed to clarify important reasons why muni bond investors do not face the imminent peril that Whitney predicted.

2011-02-07 00:00:00 Investment Commentary by Bob Doll of BlackRock Investment Management

Although we expect some hiccups along the way, improving economic growth and corporate earnings point the way toward a continuation of the equity bull market. We are in the midst of the first global economic recovery that is being led by emerging economies, and the U.S. is only at the beginning of transitioning into a self-sustaining expansion, suggesting that economic improvements still have a way to go. As the economy improves, we are beginning to see equity market correlations fall ?stock prices are being driven more by fundamentals and less by macro factors, a trend we expect to continue.

2011-02-01 00:00:00 Can Economics Save the Economy? by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Christina Romer, Greg Mankiw and Paul Krugman were among a group of thought leaders who spoke at a conference in Cambridge last week. They cited a lack of sufficiently powerful and politically feasible policy options, calling into question whether economists will be able to produce the clear path to the stronger recovery that the Obama administration seeks.

2011-02-01 00:00:00 Back in Black: Economy Moves to Expansion From Recovery by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

Real GDP moves from recovery to expansion, but growth remains below potential. Inflation concerns globally replacing double-dip recession concerns as key theme in 2011. Egyptian unrest and rising volatility could further temper optimism, which could bring back the "wall of worry" the stock market likes to climb.

2011-01-18 00:00:00 Weekly Market Commentary by Scotty George of du Pasquier Asset Management

Today, bond and stock inventors sit at the edge of a new paradigm, indeed, where inexpensive money has yielded about as much as possible from corporate balance sheet expansion, while lower interest rates no longer offer high yield or capital gains probabilities to fixed income investors. The difficulty today, however, is that stocks are at a significant inflection point where the likelihood of perpetual sustainable upside gains is limited.

2011-01-18 00:00:00 Equity Investment Outlook by Team of Osterweis Capital Management

During the fourth quarter, the stock market staged a strong rally, reflecting both growing evidence of a sustained economic recovery and the reversal (thanks to the Republican victory in November) of the seriously anti-business tone in Washington. These two factors enabled investors to begin thinking not just of a recovery from the recent crisis and recession, but of a more sustainable and enduring expansion. As a result, they were able to bet on a longer stream of favorable corporate earnings.

2011-01-14 00:00:00 Quarterly Review and Outlook, Fourth Quarter 2010 by Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management

An even slower growth rate of real GDP should be recorded over the next four quarters, suggesting the unemployment rate will be essentially unchanged a year from now. As we have noted previously, this modest expansion is due to the significant over-indebtedness of the U.S. economy. We see seven main impediments to economic progress in 2011 that will slow real GDP expansion to the 1.5%-2.5% range.

2011-01-05 00:00:00 Market Review & Outlook by Doug MacKay of Broadleaf Partners

In 2011, we remain optimistic, believing the economy will progress from its recovery phase into expansion territory sometime during 2012. A more favorable regulatory and political environment should be a positive for corporate America, which may finally begin to spend its huge accumulated cash hoards, not solely by returning it to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks and dividends, but by also hiring new employees and upgrading their capital equipment as demand trends improve. A continued trend of bond market outflows and equity inflows should also prove constructive for the stocks.

2011-01-04 00:00:00 The Coming Decade of Sideways Markets by Robert Huebscher (Article)

'We are in the middle of a sideways market, and we still have another decade to go,' says Vitality Katsenelson. In this interview, Katsenelson shares his insights on the decade ahead and the many factors that may keep China from leading us out of the recession.

2010-12-21 00:00:00 Ed Hyman: We Are Not Japan by Katie Southwick (Article)

Despite his worrisome outlook earlier this year, the ISI Group's Ed Hyman provided an upbeat forecast of the US economy, arguing that we are in the midst of an economic recovery that will lead to expansion. We are demonstrating that we are not Japan, he said.

2010-12-15 00:00:00 Europe Remains a Clear Downside Risk by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

Europe remains a clear downside risk for the global economic outlook with the problems spreading to Spain and Portugal. Contagion risks are being underestimated by Mr. Market who has been myopically focused on irresponsible fiscal expansion in the US and recent hopes that QE2 would morph into QE3. As some proof that the recent economic data flow are over-rated, and likely exaggerated by seasonal influences, the Fed barely raised its macro outlook and actually seemed to dampen its view of the housing sector.

2010-12-14 00:00:00 Looking Back at a Year of Policy Mistakes by Michael Lewitt (Article)

As we approach the end of 2010, the global economy remains captive to a boom-and-bust cycle resulting from years of pro-cyclical monetary, fiscal and regulatory policies. With very limited exceptions, the same policies that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis remain in place. The only difference is that government balance sheets are far more leveraged than they were heading into that crisis.

2010-12-13 00:00:00 Economic Insights: Consumers Save Themselves by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Like the Southern belle of romance, American households have begun to revive from their former swoon. Reestablished savings flows have, during the past year or so, begun to pay down the debt-overhang built up in previous years. Households still have a long way to go before they can return their finances to the sound state they enjoyed in, say, the mid-1990s, but matters have improved enough to support a modest expansion in spending and enough to support a continued, if slow, overall economic recovery.

2010-12-06 00:00:00 Creating a Mirage of Economic Growth by Doug Carey (Article)

Bubble formation is not random. Some may believe it is, but bubbles are in fact a predictable byproduct of the fractional reserve system upon which our economy is built. By stimulating and amplifying lending through its fractional reserve system, the Federal Reserve systematically creates the mirage of growth, from which deception systemic crises inevitably result.

2010-12-03 00:00:00 Fundamentals and the Stock Market by Matthew Rubin of Neuberger Berman

Is continued discomfort in the stock market justified? It can be argued that the economy is relatively weak, and with high unemployment, the weak housing market and a new focus on fiscal restraint, few expect rapid expansion anytime soon ? not exactly a bullish sign for an asset class that is supposed to benefit from expansion. However, from a number of vantage points, stocks are displaying what we consider attractive characteristics that suggest the benefits of maintaining substantial exposure to equities in the current environment.

2010-11-30 00:00:00 QE2: Beware the Perils of its Success by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

QE2 is like a drug prescription that comes with a list of side effects that are often worse than the disease it was supposed to cure. It is difficult to know the unintended consequences of QE2, but it may result in a substantial decline in the dollar, stagflation, lower economic growth and much higher interest rates.

2010-11-16 00:00:00 Jeremy Siegel on the Upside for Equities and the Virtues of QE2 by Robert Huebscher (Article)

In our annual interview, Jeremy Siegel, the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School, offers his forecast for equities - a 10% to 20% gain in 2011, along with a continued rally through the end of this year. He also explains why the current round of quantitative easing is exactly what is needed to stimulate the economy.

2010-11-15 00:00:00 Fall Quarterly Commentary by John G. Prichard of Knightsbridge Asset Management

Economic and employment conditions remain soft amidst continued deleveraging. Developed market debt and currency issues remain. There are however offsetting positives. Corporations are in good shape with lots of cash and moderate leverage. Household finances are improving as well. Further, it is important to remain cognizant of the fact that conditions can change and equities are forward looking. Housing and autos, common drivers of economic expansion, should kick in at some future point.

2010-11-09 00:00:00 New Strategies in Alternative Investments by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Alternative investments, broadly speaking, and hedge funds, more specifically, have performed as intended over the last 20 years, modestly increasing returns and significantly reducing risk when added to a traditional stock-bond portfolio. Selecting the appropriate vehicle is the challenge, and that task has been made easier by the introduction of new exchange-traded strategies.

2010-11-09 00:00:00 Keynesian Confusion by Michael Lewitt (Article)

Keynesian policies are inflicting untold damage on the U.S. and global economies today. Keynes did not have to be misread. The reason that the current recovery is below par is that the economy is experiencing a massive paradox of thrift. We doubt that reducing already low rates is going to stimulate much of anything other than more frustration on the part of savers. Sooner or later, everything being earned on the upside of this liquidity-induced rally will be given back in spades - the only question is when.

2010-11-02 00:00:00 The New Abnormal by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

We are definitely in an abnormal economic environment. We just came off a 2 percent real GDP growth performance in a quarter - the fifth in this nascent recovery - where the economy is usually humming along at a 4.3 percent clip and on a lot less government stimulus. Make no bones about it, heading into year two of the post-recession recovery, the pace of activity is usually accelerating, and doing so at a 5 percent rate. The Federal Reserve with its continued monetary expansion just may well see something in the economic outlook that has yet to fully register with Mr. Market.

2010-10-30 00:00:00 Schwab Market Perspective: So Now What? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

The Federal Reserve and upcoming elections are in sharp focus and results and actions in these two areas could determine whether the momentum seen since September can continue. Earnings season was better than expected and the market reacted as such. But confidence remains a major issue, with brewing mortgage-related problems and continued uncertainty around tax policy causing consternation. Debt remains a major issue that's just now being addressed and protectionism still threatens economic expansion. China remains a bright spot for global growth.

2010-10-29 00:00:00 Asset Allocation in an Uncertain Economy by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Advisors should not bet on whether the recession will be L-, V-, or W-shaped. Instead, Ron Albahary said they should use strategic asset allocation and overweight or underweight those asset classes that have historically done well at certain points in the economic cycle. Albahary is the CIO of Convergent Wealth Advisors, a Washington, DC-based wealth manager.

2010-10-29 00:00:00 Postcard from Vietnam by Taizo Ishida of Matthews Asia

As much as two-thirds of Vietnam's GDP can be attributed to strong personal consumption in a country of 86 million (with an average age of 26). Over the past 20 years, the country has shown impressive economic expansion, averaging 7.1 percent growth per year, which has pushed GDP per capita up to just over $1,000 U.S. Although Vietnam still faces potential problems with inflation, it is still encouraging to witness the real changes taking place in the country's consumer behavior.

2010-10-27 00:00:00 Fifty Not Nifty by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

Consumer confidence came in at 50.2 in October versus the 49.9 expected. Of course, the media types were hyping up the number as another reason to load up on equities. Let's get a grip. In periods of economic expansion, consumer confidence averages 100.3 on the nose. For all the rejoicing, today's level is half what is normal for an economy supposedly out of recession, and in recessions, consumer confidence averages 72.9. We are 22 points south of the level that historically typified economic contractions. Yikes!

2010-10-12 00:00:00 Beggar Thy Neighbor, Beggar Thyself by Michael Lewitt (Article)

In the latest edition of the HCM Market Letter, Michael Lewitt argues that reported attempts by countries to devalue their currencies will only result in higher inflation and not economic growth. QE2 will similarly fail, and the necessary "heavy lifting" for the economy should be through fiscal, not monetary, policy. A continuation of Keynesian policies, as advocated by Paul Krugman, will also fail. Lewitt warns of dangers in ETFs and offers his investment recommendations.

2010-09-27 00:00:00 What Happened on Friday? by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

On Friday, a very successful hedge fund manager came on CNBC and told viewers that the equity market now was a one-way ticket up. If the economy sputtered, he said, the Fed would step in and engage in more quantitative easing, and that would propel the equity market higher. And if the economy chugs along, then there will be no need for more Fed balance sheet expansion but the stock market will enjoy the fruits of stronger earnings growth. The third scenario he did not mention is that the economy will weaken to such an extent that the Fed will indeed re-engage in QE, but that it will not work.

2010-09-14 00:00:00 The Centre Cannot Hold by Michael Lewitt (Article)

"A refusal to shed discredited monetary and fiscal policies and embrace creative and politically bold solutions is keeping our economy mired in high levels of structural unemployment and below-trend growth," writes Michael Lewitt in the latest edition of the HCM Market Letter. He also believes that "misguided faith in Keynesian solutions to debt crises, a near-religious belief that mild deflation must be avoided... and uninformed media hype about the alleged benefits of mergers and acquisitions" should be added to the list of bad ideas that lead economic policy and markets astray.

2010-09-14 00:00:00 Does the Fed Ultimately Control Interest Rates? by Michael Pento of Euro Pacific Capital

In forecasting the consequences of current economic policy, many pundits are downplaying the risks associated with the surging national debt and the rapid expansion of marketable Treasury securities. In the end, central banks can only temporarily distort the savings and demand equation. The more the Fed prints, the higher the eventual rate of inflation will be. If mainstream pundits truly believe the Fed can supplant the entire public and private market for debt indefinitely, then we won't want to be around when that fantasy inevitably becomes a nightmare.

2010-09-01 00:00:00 Bullish Sea Change in a Land of Little Victories by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners

The odds of slower growth rather than a double-dip went up considerably with Wednesday morning's Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index release and probably even more so for the markets as a whole. The index came out at a strong 56.3, compared to expectations of 52.9. Generally speaking a reading under 50 indicates contraction rather than expansion in the manufacturing sector. While the manufacturing sector expansion may not represent a sea change akin to what investors became accustomed to in the go-go 1990's, it is nevertheless positive.

2010-08-30 00:00:00 Weekly Investment Commentary by Bob Doll of BlackRock

While the recovery has been slow, we have made significant progress. On a real basis, U.S. gross domestic product has regained 70 percent of what was lost during the recession and on a nominal basis, GDP has regained all of it, meaning that the United States is in a nominal expansion. In any case, investors in U.S. stocks can expect continued volatility ahead. The S&P 500 Index has remained in a rough trading range of between 1,020 and 1,120. While a dramatic breakout from this range is unlikely for now, as economic conditions slowly improve, the positive forces should win out.

2010-08-24 00:00:00 Bonds or Stocks - Who is Right? by Chris Maxey of Fortigent

Over the past several months, bond and equity markets have been on starkly divergent paths. Investors are growing increasingly concerned that perhaps the bond market knows something that the stock market is overlooking. One reason for this divergence is corporations. Emerging from one of the most severe recessions in the last century, companies are more than willing to hoard cash and favor a 'wait and see' approach before resuming expansion. Meanwhile, individual investors continue to sell equities in favor of fixed income securities.

2010-08-23 00:00:00 Markets Pushed Back by Eric S. Ende of First Pacific Advisors

After the events in Greece, it was clear that the shift from expansion to fiscal tightening would put a damper on economic growth. The question of whether the U.S. economy will fall into a double-dip recession therefore misses the larger point. If another recession happens, markets will weaken, governments will stimulate, and the whole cycle will start again. If the economy avoids the second dip, however, the level of economic growth for the next five years should still be lower than the five that preceded the downturn.

2010-08-23 00:00:00 Markets Are Pricing in the 'New Normal' by Charles Gave of GaveKal

Either the upcoming U.S. elections, in a repeat of 1994, will bring about a Congress able to reduce the pace of government spending, thus triggering a massive sell-off in government bonds and a significant rally in equity markets, or the expansion of the U.S. government will continue, in which case investors in U.S. government bond markets will likely thrive in a repeat of what happened in Japan over the past two decades. You can guess which outcome the biggest fixed income investment houses are rooting for.

2010-08-17 00:00:00 A Double-Dip Recession Remains Unlikely ? A Mid-Year Update by Bob Doll (Article)

The past couple of months have been difficult for investors, but we are holding to our view that the recovery will continue and stocks will gain ground. Bob Doll, Vice Chairman and Chief Equity Strategist for Fundamental Equities at BlackRock, discusses the current situation, the predictions he made at the beginning of 2010 and opportunity in the financial markets for the second half of the year. We thank BlackRock for their sponsorship.

2010-08-16 00:00:00 A Fragile Economic Outlook Continues by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds

The recent few quarters of economic expansion are the result of enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus, without much 'intrinsic' private sector expansion at all. Now that inventories are replenished and the fiscal stimulus is tapering off, the underlying and still uncorrected fragility in the economy is likely to reassert itself for a time. While the Economic Cycle Research Institute has expressed increasing economic concerns, however, it has not yet warned conclusively of a double-dip.

2010-08-16 00:00:00 Late Summer Slumber? by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab

The stock market rallied nicely in July after reaching the bottom of its recent range. Incoming data remains mixed but indicates that the economic expansion continues. However, risks remain elevated. The Federal Reserve downgraded its view and is discussing how to combat possible deflation, while federal and state governments continue to grapple with budget issues. Chinese growth has slowed, but the stock market is providing some positive indicators. Central banks around the world are creating a muddied picture.

2010-08-11 00:00:00 Not in Kansas Anymore by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

The transition to the next sustainable economic expansion and bull market in these types of business cycles takes between five and 10 years, and is fraught with periodic setbacks. While an underweight positions in equities still makes sense, a bar bell between basic materials and defensive dividend stocks is a prudent strategy, with the overall emphasis in the asset mix tilted towards bonds, especially the BB-rated sliver or that part of the higher quality non-investment grade space that currently has the greatest unexploited potential for spread compression and capital gains.

2010-07-20 00:00:00 The Opportunity in Build America Bonds by Jeff Westergaard (Article)

While the unique aspects of Build America Bonds (BABs) and recent Treasury Department actions are meaningful, the risks to investors have been over-emphasized. BABs remain an attractive vehicle for investors and issuers, and the market for them is likely to grow.

2010-07-16 00:00:00 Government Policies Pushing Towards Depression by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

As leaders around the world look to tighten the reins on out of control spending, President Obama and his Democratic supporters in Congress believe that their stimulus actions have succeeded and should be redoubled. Armed with nothing more than faith in government and a belief that spending is both a means and an end, it appears that the U.S. stimulus policy will continue. The net result of these efforts will not be a more vibrant economy, but the perpetuation of fear and confusion in the business community and the continuing expansion of deficits that will lead inevitably to higher taxes.

2010-06-29 00:00:00 Inflation Protection Investment Strategies by Vern Sumnicht (Article)

The value of the dollar is sure to erode, and investors will be left to grapple with the inflationary consequences. As Vern Sumnicht shows in this guest contribution, recent policies suggest steep inflation may be just around the corner. Fortunately, investors have some options to bolster their portfolios against the threat of inflation.

2010-06-25 00:00:00 Beyond the Growth Vs. Austerity Debate by Mohamed A. El-Erian of PIMCO

This weekend?s G-20 meeting will likely fuel, not resolve, the heated debate triggered by a combination of exploding debt and deficits in industrial countries, and the recognition that many now face a future of muted growth and high unemployment. In one corner stand the 'growth now' camp, arguing that expansion is a prerequisite to service their debt sustainably. Against them stand the 'austerity now' camp, who want budget cuts to lower risk premiums and stave off disruptive debt restructurings. The two sides are both right, and wrong.

2010-06-17 00:00:00 The New Economic Reality - Part III by Monty Guild and Tony Danaher of Guild Investment Management

Inflation can occur in either an economic expansion or a depression. In either case gold, currencies of countries with conservative financial management and stable banking systems, real estate, and other real assets can do well. In an inflationary expansion fast growing companies and producers of commodities will also do well. During deflation, bonds will do well if the issuer can make the payments. Gold often holds its value in terms of buying power even in a depression.

2010-06-14 00:00:00 Born on Third Base by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds

Wall Street seems to have no idea that every bit of growth we've observed over the past year can be traced to government deficit spending, with zero private sector expansion when those deficits are factored out. Unless the credit spreads, the S&P 500, or the yield curve reverse, a further decline in the Purchasing Managers Index to 54 or below would be sufficient to confirm a 'double-dip recession.' By itself, such a level might not be particularly troublesome. In concert with other evidence, however, it would be sufficient to complete the syndrome of risk factors.

2010-06-08 00:00:00 Why Wall Street Won't be Reformed by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Michael Lewitt, author of the highly respected HCM Market Letter, has just released a new book, The Death of Capital. In this interview, he identifies the challenges facing those who seek to regulate Wall Street, and why most of the proposed reforms are likely to fail.

2010-06-08 00:00:00 "Missing Elements" of Mr. Laffer's Incomplete Story by Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust

Supply-side economist Arthur Laffer recounts his experience with the Reagan administration to illustrate his arguments about the positive impact of tax cuts on economic growth with in a piece for the June 7 Wall Street Journal. Laffer predicts dire economic consequences if the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire at the close of 2010. If Laffer's thesis is correct, however, then why, for example, did the economy post noticeable growth after the tax increases of 1993? And why did the U.S. economy undergo such a weak period of economic expansion following the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003?

2010-06-01 00:00:00 Europe: Value or Value Trap? by Dan Trosch, CFA (Article)

European equities seem much cheaper than in the US, says Dan Trosch of Fortigent in this guest contribution. Europe trades at a 26% Price to Book discount and a 20% Price to Cash Earnings discount to the US. Some European industries and stocks are deservedly cheap and value traps; other industries and stocks are attractive and will benefit from global growth in exports and other macro trends.

2010-06-01 00:00:00 Margins Peak, Gold Saves Lives by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

There is no ?get-out-of-jail-free? card when it comes to the places where market prices could go during this period of pullback in investor risk appetite. The appetite for risk usually comes back because the Fed cuts rates. This time around, we may have to see more balance sheet expansion and more money printed. Gluskin still loves the bond market, but gold is a very good hedge here just in case we are wrong on the inflation call or if the markets begin to anticipate the massive reflation efforts that are still to come.

2010-05-18 00:00:00 Letters to the Editor by Various (Article)

In a letter to the Editor, a reader responds to Niall Ferguson's thesis in last week's article, A Historical Perspective on the Slight Depression.

2010-04-27 00:00:00 The Four Horsemen of Growth: David Kelly?s Guide to Markets by Katie Southwick (Article)

With unprecedented volatility now largely behind us, J.P. Morgan's Chief Investment Strategist David Kelly believes that the economy is entering a period of recovery. To move forward, we must abandon our negative mindsets and focus on opportunities for expansion.

2010-04-06 00:00:00 Do Not Give Up on Stocks: Stay Active by Jay Feeney of Robeco Investment Management

Stocks clearly have much better fundamental earnings support now than they did in mid-2009, when profits were still in a downward spiral. Money, however, is flooding away from active strategies and into passive indexing and ETFs. At this juncture, the headwinds against expansion are considerable and this stacks the balance of risk in favor of active stock-picking strategies that maintain a strong valuation bias. Higher-quality large cap stocks should also be emphasized, since the rally off the bottom has favored lower quality names, leaving the larger names with more attractive upside.

2010-04-06 00:00:00 Liz Ann Sonders on the US Economic Recovery by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Liz Ann Sonders is Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. In this interview, she discusses her positive outlook for the US economy, which she believes has been recovering since last summer.

2010-04-05 00:00:00 Labor Market Turnaround by Bob Doll of BlackRock

The March payrolls report likely signaled the start of a long-awaited rebound in the employment picture, which should benefit the broader economy. As fiscal and monetary stimulus begins to fade over the coming months, the economy is going to require some self-sustaining mechanisms to kick in, and growing employment levels would certainly be beneficial. Over the course of the next year, we expect the economy to successfully shift from a recovery to an expansion. Investors should continue overweighting equities and credit-related fixed income assets and underweighting cash and Treasury bonds.

2010-04-05 00:00:00 Half Empty or Half Full? by Scott Welch of Fortigent

Global equity markets closed out the quarter well, with all major world indices except China posting positive quarterly performance. Earnings improvements, dramatic P/E expansion and a slowly recovering global economy all contributed to the run-up. Several potentially dark clouds, however, float across an otherwise sunny investment sky. One is simply a function of the extended market rally and corresponding expansion in market P/E ratios. By several indicators, the market seems to be veering into over-valued territory. Fortigent also comments on muted but real GDP growth, and the week ahead.

2010-03-12 00:00:00 Changing Seasons by Doug Mackay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners

The economy is shifting from its early recovery phase of rapid growth into a late expansion phase of moderate growth. While low interest rates were critical to market success in 2009 during the early stages of the expansion, economic growth patterns tend to have greater influence in later stages. As economic seasons change, it will be necessary for investors to weed out bad stocks, prune healthy ones and transplant names in order to maintain the vitality of their overall portfolios.

2010-03-08 00:00:00 Economic Data Improves Gradually by Chris Maxey of Fortigent

The Federal Reserve Beige Book confirmed that the economy shows signs of expansion, but that labor markets show only tentative signs of improvement. The S&P 500 went up 3.1 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial average increased 2.3 percent after last Friday's employment figures were not as bad as expected. Real estate activity is picking up, but officials are still apprehensive about what will happen when the home-buyer tax credit expires at the end of April. Maxey also looks at this week's upcoming events and releases.

2010-02-26 00:00:00 The Multiplication of Money by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Mauldin begins with a review of the situation in Greece, highlighting recent social unrest, and concluding that the most likely resolution will be relief from the IMF. Next, he rejects recent reports that hedge funds will short the euro and cause it to decline relative to the dollar. He then argues that the reported expansion of M0, M1 and M2 money supply is inconsequential (for inflation), because it is more than offset by a decrease in the velocity of money.

2010-02-23 00:00:00 Letter to the Editor by Various (Article)

In this letter to the Editor, an advisor responds to last week's article, Boom and Bust, by Michael Lewitt of Harch Capital Management.

2010-02-16 00:00:00 Boom and Bust by Michael Lewitt (Article)

The US and global economies are "trapped in a cycle of boom and bust as a result of fiscal and monetary policies from which there is no easy escape," says Michael Lewitt of Harch Capital Management. Lewitt believes the S&P will rally to 1,200-1,250, but says the long-term prognosis is "somewhere between grave and terminal." We are privileged to provide this excerpt from Lewitt's monthly newsletter and encourage our readers to subscribe to it directly.

2010-02-09 00:00:00 China?s Quest for a Shortcut to Greatness by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

The Chinese economy must be getting out of control, because the Chinese government is doing the unthinkable: It is desperately trying to put the brakes on its economy. Author and fund manager Vitaliy Katsenelson looks back at how China got into this trouble and looks forward to China's prospects.

2010-02-03 00:00:00 Investment Commentary by Bruce A. Weininger of Kovitz Investment Group

Kovitz is a $1 billion Chicago-based asset manager. This commentary reviews their investment philosophy (value-driven without attempting to ?time? the market), and includes a discussion of certain types of leverage that can be beneficial to the investor (e.g., operating leverage) and others that can be harmful (e.g., revaluation and multiple expansion risk). In this context, they comment that ?the bond market might be a bit frothy and perhaps in some form of a bubble.?

2010-01-19 00:00:00 Steve Leuthold: The Market will Rally This Year by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Steve Leuthold is chairman of the $4.5 billion Leuthold Group and one of the most widely-followed market analysts. In his keynote presentation at last week's Fortigent conference, he offered an upbeat forecast for the first half of 2010.

2010-01-05 00:00:00 Paul Krugman on Deficits, Taxes, Inflation, and Recovery by Dan Richards (Article)

Dan Richards' interview with Paul Krugman, the 2008 Nobel prize winner in Economics, covers his views on the size of the next stimulus package, how high marginal tax rates should go, and lessons from the Japanese experience. Whether or not you agree with him, Krugman is highly influential and his views may presage future policy decisions.

2009-12-22 00:00:00 ECRI: Recovery and Jobs Growth are Underway by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), provides an upbeat forecast in our interview. He says the economic recovery has been underway since the summer and he expects to see jobs growth in the coming quarters. ECRI is a global research firm serving buy- and sell-side institutions and Fortune 500 companies.

2009-12-15 00:00:00 Barton Biggs on Undervaluation in the S&P 100 by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Barton Biggs, the former Chief Global Strategist for Morgan Stanley who now runs the hedge fund Traxis Partners, says the high-quality, large-capitalization stocks in the S&P 100 are now undervalued by one standard deviation. In our interview, Biggs also discusses his fears and how investors should protect themselves from the worst-case scenarios.

2009-12-15 00:00:00 Investing in Range-bound Markets by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Vitaliy Katsenelson, a frequent contributor to these pages, reviews his thesis for secular market cycles, why the US markets remain locked in a range-bound state, and what it will take for them to exit from that state.

2009-11-24 00:00:00 Interview: Brian McMahon of Thornburg Investments by Robert Huebscher (Article)

We speak with Brian McMahon, CEO and CIO of Thornburg Investment Management about the Thornburg Income Builder Fund (TIBAX) and the challenges of finding income-producing securities in today's markets.

2009-11-17 00:00:00 Our Steroidally Challenged Economy by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Vitaliy Katsenelson writes that the US economy is like a marathon runner who, after suffering an injury, takes steroids in order to return to racing. His performance is fine, but what don't see are the risks, just as our economy is now "steroidally challenged."

2009-10-27 00:00:00 The ?V? Points Downward by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Long-term equity investors face a critical juncture. They can believe a V-shaped economic recovery is imminent, if not underway, and valuations for broad-based equity indexes properly reflect an end to the "decrepit decade" of return-less risk in US markets. Or they can believe true economic recovery - growth, not just stability - is still a long way off and US equity valuations are in bubble territory, not reflective of the rough terrain ahead. We provide our thoughts.

2009-09-29 00:00:00 The Case Against Inflation by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Investors should expect extremely low inflation - just slightly above zero - for the indefinite future, according to Connie Everson, the Managing Director and co-founder of the Capital Markets Outlook Group, a Boston-based economic consulting firm that serves institutional investors throughout the world. Everson delivered her remarks to an audience of financial analysts in Boston last Thursday.

2009-09-29 00:00:00 Taste Testing Investment Style Sausages by Ron Surz (Article)

Equity indexes, like those offered by Russell and S&P are the investment-world equivalent of sausages - chopped up pieces of meat in tightly wrapped packages. Most shoppers buy sausages based on brand name, as do investors when they choose their benchmarks. In this guest contribution, Ron Surz dissects these index sausages and explains the real differences in their ingredients.

2009-08-25 00:00:00 The Case for Optimism by Dan Richards (Article)

Only a few months ago, economist's doomsday scenarios caused widespread concerns that we were about to revisit the Great Depression. That consensus view on the economy has shifted remarkably quickly, with a much more positive outlook for the immediate period ahead. Dan Richards cites two recent articles making a persuasive case for optimism.

2009-08-04 00:00:00 Paul Krugman on the Prospects for Recovery by Eric Uhlfelder (Article)

Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman tells Eric Uhlfelder that massive government spending is essential for generating growth, but fears the first stimulus package will not be enough to keep the economy from slipping back into recession nor reducing unemployment.

2009-07-28 00:00:00 Moving Average: Holy Grail or Fairy Tale - Part 3 by Theodore Wang (Article)

Buy-and-hold remains deeply entrenched in the financial planning community, despite many of the flaws Ted Wong's previous articles have illustrated. Although many financial advisors suffer dearly from their buy-and-hold practices, they are reluctant to change their approach. Who dares to challenge investment sages like Bogle, Siegel, and Malkiel who emphatically support this long-standing investment principle? Academic research studies overwhelmingly endorse buy-and-hold. How can they all be wrong?

2009-07-21 00:00:00 SIFMA?s Proposed by Ron Rhoades (Article)

On July 17, 2009, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association ("SIFMA") announced that its Private Client Group Steering Committee unanimously supports a new federal fiduciary standard for broker-dealers and investment advisors, embracing a proposal advanced by the Obama administration a week earlier in a draft of the "Investor Protection Act of 2009." Ron Rhoades looks at whether this shift in direction by SIFMA poses a radical change in business models, or whether the "new federal fiduciary standard" is something else in disguise.

2009-07-14 00:00:00 Some Signs of Life and Hope for a New Recovery by John P. Calamos and Nick P. Calamos (Article)

Calamos Investments' co-CIOs John P. Calamos, Sr. and Nick P. Calamos discuss the current market climate, implications of Fed and government actions, and investment opportunities in the shorter- and longer-term. Global governmental policies have restored a degree of confidence in the financial markets and many key financial metrics are back to pre-Lehman levels. Many investment opportunities will be available in the future. We thank them for their sponsorship.

2009-06-23 00:00:00 The Road to Zimbabwe by Robert Huebscher (Article)

John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics is best known for exposing inaccuracies and biases in government reporting of data - most notably the understatement of the CPI index. Williams says the US economy is on the brink of hyperinflation which will render the dollar worthless, as happened recently to Zimbabwe's local currency.

2009-06-09 00:00:00 Simon Johnson on Obama?s Achilles Heel by Eric Uhlfelder (Article)

While he agrees with much of what the US administration is doing to confront the economic crisis, Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, fears that present policy is not addressing a key issue: the overwhelming influence of the finance industry in US economic affairs. He likens this imbalance to what we see at the core of many emerging markets crises.

Website by the Boston Web Company