ACTIONABLE ADVICE FOR FINANCIAL ADVISORS: Newsletters and Commentaries Focused on Investment Strategy

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2015-01-06 00:00:00 2015: More Investment and Profits, Higher Rates, Dollar and Stocks by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

Contrary to popular opinion, business investment is a key factor behind the current recovery. Productive investments have boosted profits to record highs and, in turn, those profits have driven stock prices to record highs. They should continue to do so.

2014-12-27 00:00:00 Sungarden's 2015 Investor Preview by Robert Isbitts of Sungarden Investment Research

2014 is nearly behind us. And since we tend to not want to do things the way the Wall Street herd does, our 2015 outlook is formatted this way: we list a group of potential scenarios, and then assign our best guess probability that they will happen next year. This is about considering the possibilities, not making outright predictions.

2014-12-22 00:00:00 Come and Listen to a Story About a Man Named Jed by Ted Ake of Willingdon Wealth Management

For those that were around in the 1960s, the Beverly Hillbillies were a highlight of lowbrow humor. Lester Flatt and Earl Scruggs played the theme song that I still sing today. The story of a poor mountain family that strikes it rich when oil is found on their land, made millions of us laugh as they moved to a huge mansion in Beverly Hills.

2014-12-22 00:00:00 A Look Back at 2014 (and a 2015 Preview) by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

At the beginning of this year, we had three broad thoughts about what it would look like. First, we expected U.S. economic growth would accelerate moderately. Second, we believed Federal Reserve tapering would occur slowly and that global monetary policy would remain accommodative. And third, we forecasted that the U.S. equity market would grind higher due to central bank liquidity, modest economic acceleration, solid corporate earnings, contained inflation and an improving fiscal situation. These views formed the basis for the predictions we made in January. And at this point, we can offer a

2014-12-21 00:00:00 European QE Draws Attention to Irish Bonds by John Taylor and Dennis Shen of AllianceBernstein

Europes bond markets are starting to focus on the potential impact of ECB sovereign-bond purchases. While we expect QE to prompt a further narrowing of peripheral European sovereign-bond spreads, its important to stay focused on country fundamentals when selecting exposure.

2014-12-15 00:00:00 Why Does Everyone Keep Asking Us About Great Value Buys in Europe? by Team of GaveKal Capital

While attending a conference last week and hearing questions and comments such as, "Europe's pretty cheap right now, isn't it?", "Where are you finding the best deals in Europe?", and "I bet you are finding a lot of value in Europe these days", we felt as though it might be appropriate/ necessary to quickly review where European valuations stand at the moment (short answer: the perception that an abundance of relatively inexpensive stocks may be found in Europe is largely misguided).

2014-12-13 00:00:00 Bulls, Bears and Pigs by Robert Isbitts of Sungarden Investment Research

So, the global stock markets have your attention. Whether you are focused on declining economic prospects in Europe, Emerging Markets weakness or the recent slide in the U.S. stock market, we are all forced to contemplate something that may now be driving up beside us, not merely in the rear-view mirrora stock bear market.

2014-12-06 00:00:00 Draghi Crosses the Rubicon while Juncker Peddles "Europhemisms" by John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments

The announcement by newly installed European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker of a package designed to secure 315 billion of investment for the eurozone garnered a lot of press interest in late November. However, John Beck, director of Fixed Income, London, and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, believes a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi at a bankers conference in Frankfurt earlier in the month offers more practical insight for investors. Here he outlines lessons to take from Draghis speech in the lions

2014-11-27 00:00:00 Pick and Mix: Fresh Ideas for Diversifying Bond Exposure by John Taylor of AllianceBernstein

Policy backdrops and growth trajectories around the world are showing increasing signs of divergence. Yet many bond investors continue to congregate in a few selected pockets of the fixed income universe. In our view, its a perfect time to reconsider diversification tactics.

2014-11-24 00:00:00 Equities Benefit as U.S. Growth Solidifies by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

The dominant news story last week was President Obamas announcement of new executive actions on immigration policy, but investors chose to look past any political risks and focused on the positives. Specifically, markets reacted well to signs that the European Central Bank would expand its monetary easing and to a surprise interest rate cut in China.

2014-11-24 00:00:00 Let's Finally Fix The CBO by Brian Wesbury, Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors

If they came back today, the Founders of the United States wouldnt recognize the government they created 225 years ago. They put safeguards in place separation of powers, a bicameral legislature and reserved powers for the states to prevent it from growing so large.

2014-11-23 00:00:00 Chinas Monetary-Policy Surprise by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate

In economic policy, as in most other areas, actions speak louder than words. By cutting its policy benchmark interest rates, the Peoples Bank of China has underscored the tactical focus of Chinese governments stabilization policy: it aims to set a floor of around 7% on GDP growth.

2014-11-22 00:00:00 A Tale of Two Worlds by Doug MacKay and Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners

We are in a Tale of Two Worlds. One worlds success is highly dependent on the outlook for oil and other commodities, while the others is far less exposed and perhaps even a beneficiary of a more bearish climate. Commodity dependent countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, China and Australia are hurt by falling oil prices, weak global demand and new sources of supply, while the United States, with a far larger consumer driven economy, experiences an overall net benefit, as perhaps seen in earnings from the likes of Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and Lowes in recent days.

2014-11-20 00:00:00 Outlook 2015: European Equities by Rory Bateman of Schroders Investment Management

Monetary policy remains loose in Europe but governments could do more to boost demand. Meanwhile, the weaker euro and stronger banking sector should help support European equities in the coming year.

2014-11-14 00:00:00 High-Yield Bonds & Oil Prices by Team of LPL Financial

The decline in oil prices and its impact on the high-yield market has been cited as a concern for investors. This week we stay on the topic of high-yield bonds and take a closer look at the potential impact of oil prices on the high-yield bond market and whether recent concerns are justified.

2014-11-10 00:00:00 Three Reasons Why Commodity-Related Debt May Hold Value Under Pressure by Kathleen Gaffney of Eaton Vance

In this timely Insight, Kathleen Gaffney discusses how a flexible multisector bond strategy can be a great way to gain exposure to, and take advantage of, potential value opportunities in hard-hit commodity related debt.

2014-11-05 00:00:00 QE Worked, But Not As Advertised by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

Last week the Federal Reserve announced the end of its bond-buying program, which has been running with only brief interruptions for the last six years. Besides its ultimate size and duration, the striking thing about the Feds experiment with quantitative easing (QE) is that there is still not a firm consensus on exactly how it worked. Academic economists will be busy with this question for years. But from a bond investors point of view, theres enough evidence to make a few tentative conclusions.

2014-11-04 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary: September 2014 by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices corrected in September as investors became concerned about slower global growth and the continued withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Stronger than expected U.S. growth could support the global economy in the coming quarters, but has made investors anxious of early interest rate hikes. The Euro-zone economic recovery is faltering yet again as growth has slipped in most large countries.

2014-10-31 00:00:00 Financial Markets Review Third Quarter 2014 by Team of AMG Funds

Similar to earlier this year, the third quarter featured further evidence of a multi-speed economic recovery across the globe. Central banks reacted in a less-than-coordinated fashion compared to years prior, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) loosening monetary policy while the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) retained more of its status quo as detailed further here.

2014-10-28 00:00:00 Under the Magnifying Glass by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull

Recent market volatility has investors trying to sort through the little things to determine what is most important to the future of asset prices. Securities markets move up and down on a daily basis based on many different factors, some more relevant than others. The markets during October have proven that little things can lead to greater volatility as investors attempt to sort out the most relevant facts from those with less meaning. Our objective, and that of our investment managers, is to sift through these details to discern what has relevance and what is noise during the trading day.

2014-10-24 00:00:00 5 Things To Ponder: To QE Or Not To QE by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

Over the last few weeks, the markets have seen wild vacillations as stocks plunged and then surged on a massive short-squeeze in the most beaten up sectors of energy and small-mid capitalization companies. While "Ebola" fears filled mainstream headlines the other driver behind the sell-off, and then marked recovery, was a variety of rhetoric surrounding the last vestiges of the current quantitative easing program by the Fed. As I have shown many times in the past, there is a high degree of correlation between the Fed's liquidity programs and the advance in the markets.

2014-10-23 00:00:00 Risk and Uncertainty, Confidence and Fear by Scott Brown of Raymond James

In recent weeks, the financial markets appear to have been reacting less to weaker expectations of global growth and more to the increased downside risks that is, to the fear that things could get a lot worse. The downside risks to Europe are considerable, but America is much less dependent on exports than most other countries and the prospects for moderately strong growth into 2015 remain promising.

2014-10-21 00:00:00 The Skinny on Fatter Tails for Fed Policy by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Kristina Hooper comments on escalating fears that a slowdown in global growth could hamstring the US recovery and what that means for monetary-policy outcomes in the United States.

2014-10-20 00:00:00 Equity Losses Continue, but This Correction May Be Ending by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Markets endured a sharp pullback and higher volatility, but technical factors suggest we may be nearing the end of the current correction. Long-term, we believe fundamentals remain sound, the U.S. economy should continue to grow and equities should be able to grind higher.

2014-10-17 00:00:00 A Moody Market by Doug MacKay, Bill Hoover of Broadleaf Partners

For those that may not have noticed, stock market volatility has been on the rise in October, with more up and down 1-2% days and powerful intraday moves than we've seen since the Great Recession. Weak overseas economies, fears over what rapid declines in energy prices could mean, and Ebola are just a few of the factors that have been used to explain the disappointing action.

2014-10-16 00:00:00 Global Carry a.k.a. Risk Parity by Alexander Giryavets of Dynamika Capital L.L.C.

It is customary to think of Risk Parity Asset Allocation and Carry Trading Strategy as two different things. We explain that the Risk Parity after the Global Financial Crisis is nothing else but a hugely successful Global Carry Trade funded in Japanese Yen, Dollar and Euro. The performance of this trade is fantastic, the allocation is huge (100s of blns of $) and the risk of crash that will precipitate the next financial crisis is growing day by day. But for now the music is still playing.

2014-10-14 00:00:00 Finally, a Five Handle! by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull

Last Fridays jobs report was significant in that for the first time since July of 2008 the unemployment rate dipped below 6%. The September report indicated that the unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.9%. While we have seen improvement in labor markets for some time now, the Fed still seems to want to take their time reducing stimulative policy.

2014-10-07 00:00:00 Most Risk Assets Should Continue to Find Support by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Equity prices continued to slide in the face of uncertainty over global growth and pending changes to monetary policy. U.S. growth is continuing to improve, and shows further signs of divergence from the rest of the world. Markets may remain sloppy for a while, but fundamentals suggest most risk assets should continue to perform well.

2014-10-06 00:00:00 The Most Important Chart in the World by Mark Ungewitter of Charter Trust Company

One of todays most glaring inter-market divergences is the relative performance of US versus non-US equities. For dollar-based investors, non-US stocks have underperformed US stocks by an astounding 40% over the past five years.

2014-09-30 00:00:00 Economic Atonement by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

This Friday is Yom Kippur, the day when Jews around the world ask forgiveness for their transgressions from the year past. Rabbis remind the penitent to dwell on their sins of omission, in which they did nothing when a more thoughtful and proactive action was needed, and sins of commission, in which they actively participated in an unjust action. And while not all economists are Jewish, Gene Epstein the economics editor at Barron's, offered his thoughts on how this applies to the group.

2014-09-29 00:00:00 Looking Past the Risks, Equities Still Appear Attractive by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Last week featured some positive economic news, but equity markets sank nonetheless, with the S&P 500 Index falling 1.3%. On the bright side, we saw some strong data from the housing market and an upward revision to second-quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP).

2014-09-26 00:00:00 Europes Austerity Zombies by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate

If the facts dont fit the theory, change the theory, goes the old adage. But too often it is easier to keep the theory and change the facts or so German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other pro-austerity European leaders appear to believe.

2014-09-22 00:00:00 A Lack of Surprises Helps Equity Markets Make Gains by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

Equity markets rose again last week, with the S&P 500 Index climbing 1.3% and reaching another record high. Bond yields and the U.S. dollar drifted higher, while emerging market equities and commodities struggled. Two major events that resulted in a continuation of the status quo helped market sentiment.

2014-09-19 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

The choice for Europe: coming together or breaking apart; Scotland votes nay; The dollar has been the beneficiary of global uncertainty

2014-09-16 00:00:00 Of Kilts, Ballots, Bankers and Dots by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Kristina Hooper breaks down the hairy mix of economic data, central bank policy and geopolitical events, including Scotland's potential exit from the UK, that markets are combing through right now.

2014-09-10 00:00:00 Scottish Independence Vote: Investor Implications by Axel Merk of Merk Investments

Is your portfolios fate dependent on Scotlands? Why is it that when a place known for haggis, kilts and bagpipes indicates it might want to be independent, the markets pay attention?

2014-09-10 00:00:00 Why Take Currency Risk if Diversification Benefit is Declining? by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree

We have been exploring the case for layering in foreign currency (FX) on top of foreign equity returns. One of the most common arguments I have heard for taking on FX risk in international equity portfolios in an unhedged fashion is that FX can be a portfolio diversifier.

2014-09-05 00:00:00 A Letter to My Grandson About Entering the Working Life by Francois Sicart of Tocqueville Asset Management

In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, shares a letter he wrote to his 21-year-old grandson, who is entering his final year in college. "I then realized that some of this advice might also come in handy to several of my younger clients those who belong to the third generation of the families whose fortunes I manage on three continents."

2014-09-04 00:00:00 What's Next for the Dollar and Gold? by Axel Merk of Merk Investments

One reason markets tend to get a little nervous in September is that its time for investors to ponder about their asset allocation for the remainder of the year and beyond. With the markets at or near record highs and the US dollar on a roll, what could possibly go wrong? Lets look at whats next for the dollar, gold, and currencies.

2014-09-04 00:00:00 Global: Recovery Continues, but Headwinds Persist by Keith Wade of Schroders Investment Management

Keith Wade, Chief Economist at Schroders, discusses why Schroders has trimmed global growth projections for 2014 and 2015.

2014-09-03 00:00:00 International Developed and Emerging Markets by Riad Younes of R Squared Capital Management

This commentary explores what the author believes to be the best opportunities in international investing along with challenges facing investors in developed and emerging markets.

2014-08-29 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust

Flexible labor markets are key to recovering from recession; Wage trends present a challenge for the Fed; Bank settlements are sizeable, but the benefit to housing has been limited

2014-08-23 00:00:00 Quarterly Letter by Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Company

Sometimes, Im tempted to write same as last time. This is one of those times.

2014-08-20 00:00:00 Is a Big Equity Correction Imminent? Not Yet by Vadim Zlotnikov of AllianceBernstein

Many investors think US stocks are due for a correction: They feel that the market has run too far, that the Fed has been slow to act, that complacency has created pockets of excess. Do these gut feelings mean a major equity correction looms? Not yet, in our view.

2014-08-04 00:00:00 Mounting Pressure Weighs on Equities by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities experienced a sharp pullback last week, with the S&P 500 Index falling 2.7%, its largest weekly decline in over two years. A number of factors contributed to the downturn, including rising geopolitical tensions, concerns over Federal Reserve policy, Argentinas debt default, a slowdown in the housing recovery and a sense that the market rally has been getting tired. Not all of the news was negative, however, since we also saw some strong economic and earnings data and increasing merger and acquisition activity.

2014-07-21 00:00:00 Smart Beta in Action: Taking Chips Off the Small-Cap European Table by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree

European equity markets performed strongly throughout much of 2013 and into the first five months of 2014. While it is difficult to time market tops and bottoms for individual stocks on a consistent basis, we believe there are benefits to undertaking a disciplined practice to rebalance weight based on changes in relative valuation.

2014-07-19 00:00:00 Bull Stumbles by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Any near-term correction would be healthy in the context of an ongoing secular bull market. Trying to time the market is always difficult, even though the market is in a potentially weak phase, both in terms of the annual and election cycles. And while sentiment is elevated in the United States, both Europe and China provide opportunities to invest where the mood is decidedly less enthusiastic.

2014-07-17 00:00:00 How the Europe Small-Cap Portfolio Changed at the Rebalance by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree

A key differentiator of the WisdomTree Index methodology is our annual rebalance to focus on changes in relative value. In this blog, we will zoom in on how this approach led to changes in exposure in the WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Index (WT Europe Small).

2014-07-14 00:00:00 Risk of European Counter-Cyclical Underperformance in 2H2014 by Team of GaveKal Capital

Last week, we noted the outperformance of European counter-cyclicals and the group's relationship to the German Bund (here). A quick look at sector performance in Europe so far this year shows the top three market leaders have indeed been the counter-cyclicals (with the exception of the Consumer Staples sector).

2014-07-05 00:00:00 2014 Mid-Year Outlook Update: Living Actively Forecast Continues by Stephen Wood of Russell Investments

Does 2014 at mid-year remain a year of living actively for investors as outlined in Russells 2014 Annual Global Outlook issued last December? In that report, my colleagues on the global team of investment strategists agreed on the macro-view that 2014 would be better represented as a year of validation than a year of appreciation. And now, as we examine the underlying fundamentals in the macro- data at mid-year, I dont see a reason yet to alter our year of validation call.

2014-06-19 00:00:00 The Euro Goes Negative by Dickson Buchanan Jr. of Euro Pacific Precious Metals

The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to charge a negative interest on overnight deposits is not going to lead to a higher targeted inflation rate, despite ECB President Mario Draghi's insistence that it will. Like all cases of central planning, this decision will have unintended and costly consequences - some of which are already starting to play out. In this particular case, instead of stimulating business lending or higher prices, the decision will only stimulate the increased buying of insolvent government debt - leading us all one step closer to the economy's eventual unravelling.

2014-06-14 00:00:00 ECB Leaves the Door Open for Further Action by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments

he European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a robust package of monetary policy measures on June 5 and promised more to come if needed to help stave off deflation and support the eurozones fragile economic recovery. Among the moves announced were interest rate cuts, including a negative interest rate on excess deposits that banks hold with the ECB, and new facilities to support bank lending to small businesses. We asked David Zahn, portfolio manager for the Franklin Global Government Bond Fund, for his thoughts on what these latest measures could mean for investors.

2014-06-13 00:00:00 ECB Leaves the Door Open for Further Action by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments

The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a robust package of monetary policy measures on June 5 and promised more to come if needed to help stave off deflation and support the eurozones fragile economic recovery. Among the moves announced were interest rate cuts, including a negative interest rate on excess deposits that banks hold with the ECB, and new facilities to support bank lending to small businesses. We asked David Zahn, portfolio manager for the Franklin Global Government Bond Fund, for his thoughts on what these latest measures could mean for investors.

2014-06-10 00:00:00 The Central Bank Divide: 3 Implications for Investors by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock

Major central banks are no longer moving in lockstep. While the Fed is pulling back, other central banks are maintaining very easy monetary policy. Russ explains three implications this new dynamic has for investors.

2014-05-27 00:00:00 Economy Begins to Accelerate While Equities Push Higher by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished higher last week as the S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, snapping a two-week losing streak and ending at a new record high. Markets seemed to lack conviction, but the path of least resistance appeared skewed to the upside as momentum for the economic recovery was positive.

2014-05-22 00:00:00 Russian Interests by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain high, and have spilled onto the international stage. The Western world seemed to be caught off guard by Russian President Putins reaction to civil unrest in Ukraine, leading to Russias annexation of Crimea and spreading into a broader question of regional sovereignty. The situation remains fluid, so its difficult to predict just exactly how it might play out. But given escalating conflict in Eastern Ukraine, we do not envision an easy or quick end to the conflict.

2014-05-16 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Strike up the band! The Dow is now in positive territory for the year AND even set a record close. Who would have thunk that after the dismal January and the pessimism that reigned from the winter? The recovery continued as earnings season offered more surprises and the economic numbers show a country moving beyond the thaw of winter. Now if only China (Europe and Russia) could follow suit.

2014-05-15 00:00:00 Thoughts on Investing in Convertible Securities by Alan Muschott of Franklin Templeton Investments

Changes and potential changes in monetary policy across the globe, along with increased volatility in currency and equity markets, have thrown a spotlight on convertible securities, described by some as offering the best of both worlds in terms of stock and bond characteristics. But what are they, how do they work, and how can they play a part in a diversified investment portfolio in todays market? Alan Muschott, portfolio manager for Franklin Convertible Securities Fund, who has been investing in convertible securities for more than a decade, provides his take.

2014-05-13 00:00:00 Equity Markets Remain Mixed as Fundamentals Slowly Improve by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished mixed last week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major index to end in positive territory. The overall macro narrative appears favorable despite the lack of market direction. Scrutiny of beaten-down momentum stocks resurfaced, although broader market spillover remained muted.

2014-05-09 00:00:00 Thoughts on Investing in Convertible Securities by Alan Muschott of Franklin Templeton Investments

Changes and potential changes in monetary policy across the globe, along with increased volatility in currency and equity markets, have thrown a spotlight on convertible securities, described by some as offering the best of both worlds in terms of stock and bond characteristics. But what are they, how do they work, and how can they play a part in a diversified investment portfolio in todays market? Alan Muschott, portfolio manager for Franklin Convertible Securities Fund, who has been investing in convertible securities for more than a decade, provides his take.

2014-05-09 00:00:00 New Dawn for Peripheral Europe? by Darren Williams, Dennis Shen of AllianceBernstein

When Mario Draghi pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro in July 2012, nobody expected things to change so quickly. Peripheral bond markets have since turned around sharply, supporting the European economic recovery. But can the improvements be sustained after countries exit their bailouts?

2014-05-06 00:00:00 The U.S. Economy Reached a Turning Point in April by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished higher last week with the S&P 500 advancing nearly 1.0%. Positive sentiment has been supported by growing traction for the economic recovery, key economic data and corporate commentary. Although the upbeat dynamics were mentioned in the latest FOMC statement, policy normalization expectations have not changed. Another widely discussed tailwind was M&A headlines. Although tensions continue in Ukraine, geopolitical risks were mostly on the back burner.

2014-04-28 00:00:00 Equities Awaiting Stronger Growth Before Next Move by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished modestly lower last week with the S&P 500 nearly unchanged. Most of the damage occurred on Friday when escalating tensions surrounding Ukraine weighed on sentiment. Positive dynamics included an improvement in first quarter earnings metrics, a notable pickup in M&A activity and deal speculation. A broader macro narrative reflects better traction for the recovery and gradual policy normalization. With momentum plays under renewed scrutiny, several internet, software and biotech companies sold off despite an expected cushion from solid first quarter results.

2014-04-25 00:00:00 Income Market Insight by Payson Swaffield of Eaton Vance

Fans of NASCAR racing, and most other motorsports, know what it means when the yellow flag is being waved: proceed with caution. For investors in today?s credit markets, we believe that is an appropriate image to keep in mind. After five years of generationally low rates, investors are ?stretching? for yield ? that is, they are scooping up deals at yields that, in our opinion, barely compensate them for the risk.

2014-04-24 00:00:00 Quarterly Letter by Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Company

Most of the economic and market trends we've been discussing for the past few years remain in place. Russia's action in the Ukraine/Crimea may have long-term implications, particularly for Europe, but the near-term economic implications are modest. It remains to be seen whether this gets added to our long-term worry list or not.

2014-04-24 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

After a week of panic, investors focused on the positives and went bargain hunting throughout. Thus far, earnings are not as bad as expected; Chinas woes could mean new stimulus; labor and manufacturing seem to be in full fledge thaw. Hope the holiday season brings more good news.

2014-04-23 00:00:00 Gold as a Defensive Asset by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares

In our previous commentary ?Gold and the US dollar ? a love hate relationship? we used a normalized time series of the price of gold expressed in US dollars and an index representative of the value of the US dollar on currency markets to show the inherent relationship between the price of gold and the financing currency. As the financing currency strengthens on currency markets, one would expect the price of gold expressed in that currency to fall.

2014-04-15 00:00:00 Equity Market Insight by Thomas Faust, Jr. of Eaton Vance

After a powerful rally in 2013, the first quarter of 2014 saw the bull market demonstrate a measure of resilience in the face of several headwinds. In the latter half of January, stocks fell sharply on emerging-market concerns, with volatility spiking to more "normal" post-financial crisis levels. The market bounced back strongly in February and went on to record a new all-time closing high on March 7. Performance was choppy in the final few weeks of the quarter, as investors digested mixed economic reports, geopolitical issues and the latest U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

2014-04-11 00:00:00 Quarterly Letter by Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Co.

Most of the economic and market trends we?ve been discussing for the past few years remain in place. Russia?s action in the Ukraine / Crimea may have long-term implications, particularly for Europe, but the near-term economic implications are modest. It remains to be seen whether this gets added to our long-term worry list or not.

2014-04-08 00:00:00 Cementing Europe?s Recovery by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate

Europe?s renewed sense of hope and confidence, however encouraging, is not yet sufficient to produce appreciable gains for current and future generations. A few things need to happen over the next several weeks and months if Europe is to minimize the risk of another prolonged period of under-performance and financial risk.

2014-04-05 00:00:00 The Lions in the Grass, Revisited by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Today we explore a few things we can see and then try to foresee a few things that are not quite so obvious. The simple premise is that it is not the lions we can see lounging in plain view that are the most insidious threat, but rather that in trying to avoid those we may stumble upon lions hidden in the grass.

2014-04-02 00:00:00 A Fixer-Upper? by Team of GaveKal Capital

As noted yesterday, March was not an exceptionally positive month for European equities.

2014-03-28 00:00:00 What Investors Should Know About Fed Forward Guidance by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

Last week, at Janet Yellen?s first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC revised its forward guidance for the funds rate, dropping its reference to 6.5% unemployment and instead stressing the committee?s qualitative assessment of the economy. The change was a symbolically important step, but did not alter the broader outlook for policy rates, in our view.

2014-03-26 00:00:00 Understanding Gold Cost of Carry in Various Currencies by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares

Under normal market conditions, the term structure for the price of gold for delivery at increasing maturities (the term structure) exhibits an upward sloping curve. In futures market terminology the term structure is said to be in contango and implies that the price of gold for spot delivery is lower than the price of gold for future delivery.

2014-03-26 00:00:00 Unleashing Africa?s Potential by Michael Hasenstab of Franklin Templeton

Many investors who have never traveled in Africa probably have preconceived ideas about it, perhaps as a land of safaris and political strife, rich in coveted natural resources that have failed to bring widespread wealth and development to the continent. Many also might not realize how diverse the landscape, the economies and the people are on the continent, which boasts more than 1,000 languages spoken in more than 50 countries and climates ranging from hot deserts and tropical rainforests to frozen glaciers.

2014-03-24 00:00:00 Stocks Rise as Economic Backdrop Slowly Improves by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished higher last week, with the S&P 500 increasing 1.4%. Ukraine seemed to be receding in investors? minds. Despite the volatility and sharp increase in bond yields on Wednesday, the hawkish takeaways from the FOMC meeting were not a lingering overhang.

2014-03-18 00:00:00 Can the Fed Fend Off the Ides of March? by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Mid-March hasn?t been associated with much good luck in Europe historically. And with Ukraine mired in conflict, this year?s no different. But investors should resist the urge to react to geopolitical uncertainty and expect steady guidance from the Fed.

2014-03-17 00:00:00 And That's The Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Remember when tiny Greece was a market mover? Well, now its tiny Crimea. With the growing global tensions and concerns about Crimeas secession from the Ukraine to Russia, investors chose to take a week off (for the most part) and take some equity profits, while moving back into the safe haven of treasuries. With little news on the domestic economic calendar, investors looked abroad and didnt care much for what they saw in China. (Still, the yuan must be better than the ruble these days.)

2014-03-16 00:00:00 Inequality and Opportunity by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Today we will continue our thinking about income inequality, and I will respond to some of your letters, as they make good launching points for further discussion of the topic.

2014-03-09 00:00:00 The Problem with Keynesianism by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Keynes himself would appreciate the irony that he has become the defunct economist under whose influence the academic and bureaucratic classes now toil, slaves to what has become as much a religious belief system as it is an economic theory. Men and women who display an appropriate amount of skepticism on all manner of other topics indiscriminately funnel a wide assortment of facts and data through the filter of Keynesianism without ever questioning its basic assumptions. And then some of them go on to prescribe government policies that have profound effects upon the citizens of their nations.

2014-03-07 00:00:00 ECB Officials' Inflation Forecasts by of GaveKal Capital

The ECB announced that interest rates would be maintained at current levels earlier today, citing staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 1.0% in 2014, 1.3% in 2015, and 1.5% in 2016. Though few economists predicted a rate cut, there were rumors that Europe's central bank might discontinue the sterlization of bond purchases under its Securities Markets Program (SMP)-- an action consistent with the adoption of a more accomodative and active policy.

2014-03-06 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

February ended up being a strong month for stocks despite the growing perception of a slow economic start to the year 2014.

2014-03-04 00:00:00 A Century of Policy Mistakes by Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners

A century ago Argentina ranked as one of the wealthiest countries in world. Today it is a shadow of its former self. A long string of policy errors explain the long slide from riches to rags. Europe, like Argentina 100 years ago, is facing enormous challenges - as well as potential pitfalls - and the management of those challenges will define the welfare path for many years to come. Unfortunately, the early signs are not good. Our political leaders, afraid to face public condemnation, have so far chosen to ignore them.

2014-02-28 00:00:00 Bounce Back by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

US stocks have bounced and the markets still attractive and in the midst of a secular bull market. But there are likely to be bumps along the way; notably given that this is a midterm election year; which are known for first-half pullbacks. A diversified portfolio is important and both European and Chinese stocks appear to have upside, while Japan continues to frustrate with a two-steps forward, two-steps back sort of approach. And a final reminder not to replace fixed income assets with equities in search of higher income without recognizing the risk profile of a portfolio has changed.

2014-02-27 00:00:00 Meanwhile, Across the Channel... by of GaveKal Capital

As we saw yesterday, Germany's Q4 GDP release was neither surprising nor very exciting. A similar look at today's release of output in the U.K. reveals a more constructive picture.

2014-02-25 00:00:00 Alternative Energy Brief by Edward Guinness of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management

This month we provide our Outlook for the Alternative Energy sector in 2014.

2014-02-15 00:00:00 The Economic Singularity by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Today, let’s think about central banks and liquidity traps and see if we agree that central bankers are driving the car from the back seat based upon a fundamentally flawed theory of how the world works. That theory helped produce the wreck that was the Great Recession and will have its fingerprints all over the next one.

2014-02-10 00:00:00 Growth and Policy Uncertainty Cause Choppy Markets by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities closed with modest gains last week, as the S&P 500 overcame Monday?s decline, the largest one-day percentage loss since June 2013. The weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales data drive the sell-off on Monday, exacerbating the focus on slowing momentum for the U.S. recovery. The impact of adverse weather complicates the picture. Also, although January non-farm payroll missed expectations, there were more upbeat indications for the household survey.

2014-02-08 00:00:00 International Equity Commentary - December 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

International equity prices saw marginal gains in December as investors weighed the improved global economic outlook against the reduction in monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Economic trends have become more positive across most regions, helped by the improving business environment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. as well as in Europe. Japan continues to see stronger export gains as demand revives in its major markets and the cheaper yen remain supportive.

2014-02-05 00:00:00 2014 Market Outlook by Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh

Some Bumps along the Road of Global Recovery

2014-02-05 00:00:00 The Importance of Taking a Long-Term Perspective by Jeffrey Knight of Columbia Management

For asset allocation decisions, we find great value in maintaining a long-term outlook for major asset classes. Twice a year, in fact, we conduct an extensive update of our five-year return forecasts for several asset classes. The purpose of this exercise is two-fold. First, taking a longer term perspective helps us to set strategic asset allocations and design portfolios for diverse investment goals.

2014-02-01 00:00:00 Central Banker Throwdown by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

The Federal Reserve is signaling that it is going to end quantitative easing at some point in the future; therefore, investors are trying to find the exits before the end actually comes.

2014-01-28 00:00:00 Emerging Market Issues Weigh on U.S. Equities by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished lower last week as the S&P 500 declined 2.6% and suffered the largest weekly pullback since June of 2012. U.S. stocks are down approximately 3.0% both year to date and from all-time highs. In 2014, lack of direction in the market has been a focus, and the waning influence of macroeconomic news caused a notable shift late last week.

2014-01-23 00:00:00 Economic Growth is Likely to Improve in 2014 by Derek Hamilton of Ivy Investment Management Company

We believe a global economic upturn is likely in 2014, although the overall growth rate will remain sluggish. We think developed countries will show the largest improvement, which in turn will help support growth rates in emerging markets.

2014-01-21 00:00:00 Achieving Escape Velocity by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate

While the prospect of faster global GDP growth in 2014 is good news, it is too early to celebrate. Indeed, there is a risk that, by tempting policymakers into complacency, this years economic upturn could even end up being counterproductive.

2014-01-21 00:00:00 Digging for Natural Resource Opportunities in 2014 by Frederick Fromm, Stephen Land, Matthew Adams of Franklin Templeton

The natural resources sector has been through a period of transition in the past year, one which has pushed many companies toward cost reduction and greater capital discipline amid an environment of rather sluggish global economic growth. Franklin Equity Group Analysts Fred Fromm, Stephen Land and Matthew Adams think an improving economic outlook could set the stage for potentially stronger commodity demand going forward, and see healthy potential demand growth for energy in particular. They share their outlook for the natural resources sector in 2014, and where they are finding opportunities.

2014-01-18 00:00:00 Forecast 2014: 'Mark Twain!' by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

The surface of the market waters looks smooth, but the data above suggest caution as we proceed. Perhaps slowing the engine and taking more frequent soundings (or putting in closer stops!) might be in order. The cry should be "Mark twain!" Let’s steam ahead but take more frequent readings and know that a course correction may soon be necessary.

2014-01-17 00:00:00 Digging for Natural Resource Opportunities in 2014 by Frederick Fromm, Stephen Land, Matthew Adams of Franklin Templeton

The natural resources sector has been through a period of transition in the past year, one which has pushed many companies toward cost reduction and greater capital discipline amid an environment of rather sluggish global economic growth. Franklin Equity Group Analysts Fred Fromm, Stephen Land and Matthew Adams think an improving economic outlook could set the stage for potentially stronger commodity demand going forward, and see healthy potential demand growth for energy in particular. They share their outlook for the natural resources sector in 2014, and where they are finding opportunities.

2014-01-13 00:00:00 Stocks Rise Modestly in First Full Week of Trading by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished mostly higher for the first full week of the year, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.6%. There were no meaningful directional drivers behind the price action, which is a dynamic that has been prevalent so far in 2014.

2014-01-08 00:00:00 When the QE Tide Recedes, Focus on What is Revealed by Robert McConnaughey of Columbia Management

While there is fierce debate on the ultimate effectiveness of monetary stimulus surging from the central banks, one cannot dispute the boost that it has given to asset prices. While we may be seeing some "green shoots" of overall growth pick-up in the developed world, the post-crisis recovery in asset values has not been primarily driven by economic or earnings growth. Instead, we have been in a high correlation environment where the rising tide lifted most diversified investor boats as repressed "risk-free" rates pushed money out into riskier asset classes.

2014-01-07 00:00:00 The World of Thinking Machines by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

The New York Times recently published an article that discussed a new version of a computer chip that will be released later this year that is expected to automate tasks that currently require direct programming. In this report, we will open with an examination of the philosophy of learning. We will then discuss the potential dangers of such machines, including the ability to perform humanlike actions without a moral sense. We will also examine the potential economic and social side effects. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

2014-01-07 00:00:00 European Sector Overview by Team of GaveKal Capital

Though we primarily use our point-and-figure methodology when assessing attributes of individual stocks, we are also able to look at broader sets of data (such as sectors) to get a quick sense of price performance.

2014-01-04 00:00:00 Forecast 2014: The Human Transformation Revolution by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

It is that time of the year when we peer into our darkened crystal balls in hopes of seeing portents of the future in the shadowy mists. This year I see three distinct wisps of vapor coalescing in the coming years. Each deserves its own treatment, so this year the annual forecast issue will in fact be three separate weekly pieces.

2014-01-03 00:00:00 Fiat's Stock Rises 16% Today, After Closing a $4.35B Deal For Chrysler by Team of GaveKal Capital

While none of the European automakers manage to pass our knowledge leaders screen, todays news prompted us to take a closer look at the group.

2014-01-02 00:00:00 The World Economy's Shifting Challenges by George Soros of Project Syndicate

As 2013 comes to a close, efforts to revive growth in the worlds most influential economies are exerting competing pressures on the global economy. Perhaps not surprisingly, while Europe and the US will continue to play an important global role, developments in Asia will determine the worldwide outlook in 2014 and beyond.

2013-12-26 00:00:00 A Strong Finish for 2013 by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

For our weekly subscribers, we wanted to take an opportunity to look back on the year. We began 2013 with an outlook for the prospect of improvement for the global economy and risk assets. We thought global policymakers unprecedented attempts to reflate global growth would show some signs of bearing fruit, especially in the United States and China. In our forecast, equity markets would continue to be choppy in light of the fiscal cliff issues, but an inevitable political compromise would reduce the economic drag.

2013-12-18 00:00:00 Three Investments that Could Return to Favor in 2014 by Jeffrey Knight of Columbia Management

When investors lose confidence in an asset class, especially one that had been popular enough to attract outsized allocations, subsequent rebalancing generally leads to prolonged periods of underperformance. Technology stocks after 1999, for example, underperformed the S&P 500 in eight of the next 10 years and by a cumulative total of more than 40 percentage points. Today, many believe that interest rate sensitive bonds might have just begun a similar era of waning investor confidence, portfolio reallocation and underperformance.

2013-12-11 00:00:00 What Will 2014 Bring for The Equity Markets? by Marco Pirondini of Pioneer Investments

As the year draws to a close, investors are searching for clues as to what may be in store for the economy and markets in 2014. What have we learned from the markets in the month of November? Honestly, not very much. The scenario has not changed much in the last 30 days.

2013-12-07 00:00:00 Interview with Steve Forbes by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

For whatever reason, Steve Forbes seems to bring out the passion in me. When I think about what central bank policies are doing to savers and investors, how we are screwing around with the pension system, circumventing rational market expectations because of an untested economic theory held by a relatively small number of academics, I get a little exercised. And Steve gives me the freedom to do it.

2013-12-06 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

The U.S. employment report puts taper onto the table. Dont expect further rate cuts from the ECB or the Fed. Auto sales have been a bright spot amid sluggish consumer spending.

2013-12-04 00:00:00 An Agenda to Save the Euro by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate

It has been three years since the outbreak of the euro crisis, and only an inveterate optimist would say that the worst is definitely over. It is not, and it wont be unless and until the eurozones structure is fundamentally reformed.

2013-12-03 00:00:00 Looking Out on the Horizon for Equities by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished higher for an eighth consecutive week as the S&P 500 increased 0.1%, representing the longest positive streak since 2004. Inertia may have carried markets forward in a relatively quiet trading week without major headlines. Retail news appeared fairly positive in anticipation of a strong start to the Thanksgiving shopping weekend. Economic data was mixed.

2013-11-25 00:00:00 Solving the Income Puzzle by Christopher Remington, Michael Cirami, Kathleen Gaffney, Scott Page of Eaton Vance

Income needs may be as high as they’ve ever been, while the yield potential from many traditional investment classes has dwindled to generational lows. Investors who remain in high-priced, low-yielding core bond strategies could experience loss of principal (and mounting retirement shortfalls) if interest rates revert toward their mean. We advocate creating an integrated, multi-pronged income plan that may offer yield potential that meets investor needs, while managing key risks found in the typical core fixed-income allocation.

2013-11-24 00:00:00 Game of Thrones - European Style by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

The Eurozone crisis is not over, and it will not end quickly or soon. Even if it seems to unfold in slow motion - like the slow build-up in a Game of Thrones storyline to violent internecine clashes followed by more slow plot developments but never any resolution, the Eurozone debacle has never really gone away. The structural imbalances have still not been fixed; politicians and central bankers have still not agreed to solve major fiscal problems; the overall economy still disintegrates; unemployment is staggeringly high in some countries and still rising; and the people are growing restless.

2013-11-21 00:00:00 Looking Beyond Inventories by Team of Northern Trust

Inventories have the habit of offering surprises in reports of real gross domestic product (GDP). The third quarter GDP report was one such occurrence, with inventories making an unexpectedly hefty contribution. A reversal of this event is most likely to influence the headline GDP number in the final three months of the year.

2013-11-12 00:00:00 Markets Vacillate Between Stronger Economy and Fed Accommodation by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished mostly higher last week as the S&P 500 increased 0.6%, ending higher for the fifth straight week. The return of central bank action was a primary concern. The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised investors with a 0.25% rate cut, while the debate over the Federal Reserves impending tapering decision continued in earnest.

2013-11-08 00:00:00 Weekly Economic Commentary by Team of Northern Trust

The ECBs rate cut signals concerns about deflation. The U.S. job numbers provide an upside surprise. How reliable are the U.S. employment data?

2013-11-04 00:00:00 Why Wealth Taxes Are Not Enough by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate

The IMF is right on grounds of both fairness and efficiency to raise the idea of temporary wealth taxes in many countries. But, as appealing as such taxes may seem at first sight, a closer look reveals that the revenues are lower, and the costs higher, than calculations used to promote them would imply.

2013-10-29 00:00:00 Is This the New Normal'? by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments

Markets Settle into a New Normal All sorts of economic data were released last week, but volatility has dropped: rightly or wrongly, market forecasts about the pace of quantitative easing (QE) and earnings growth in the U.S. appear to have coalesced around an outlook for slow growth with ongoing QE.

2013-10-26 00:00:00 A Code Red World by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

The heart of this week’s letter is the introduction of my just-released new book, Code Red. It is my own take (along with co-author Jonathan Tepper) on the problems that have grown out of an unrelenting assault on monetary norms by central banks around the world.

2013-10-23 00:00:00 Investment Bulletin: Global Equity Strategy by Team of Bedlam Asset Management

The portfolio enjoyed another index-beating month with a gain of 0.9% versus 0.6%, so improving further the long term numbers. As noted in previous Bulletins, correlations between growth and equity market returns are low. Investors remain fixated otherwise, but some confusion is reasonable given that growth in earnings per share is also slowing. Yet strong equity markets can be justified by the Free Lunch Theory.

2013-10-22 00:00:00 Washington Strikes a No-Surprise Deal - Now What? by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments

Congress called a time-out in the budget/debt fight last week, striking a deal to avoid default and fund the U.S. government through January 15, 2014 and raise the debt limit through February 7, 2014. While the parties agreed to budget talks, they did not commit to reaching an agreement (technically, Paul Ryan and Patty Murray, the House and Senate budget committee chairs will begin a process of fiscal negotiations, due to wrap up by mid-December).

2013-10-21 00:00:00 Fourth Quarter Investment Outlook by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

The macro theme of the fourth quarter and early 2014 is monetary reflation and global growth resynchronization. The Feds surprising decision to postpone tapering its QE program will likely encourage further risk-taking. In the meantime, we observe increasing signs of a synchronized improvement among the four important economies - the United States, Europe, Japan and China.

2013-10-21 00:00:00 Europe Turning a Corner? by Brandon Odenath of J.P. Morgan Funds

Since late last year, investors have seen periods of strong outperformance by assets from the most impacted parts of Europe, leaving many observers wondering if Europe is turning a corner. Intervention by the ECB and the ability of those liquidity injections to stop the bleeding in the economy has helped. The reduction of austerity and drag coming from fiscal policy should be the key to faster economic growth.

2013-10-20 00:00:00 The Damage to the US Brand by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

There is no doubt that the image what I will refer to in this letter as the "brand" of the United States has been damaged in the past month. But what are the actual costs? And what does it matter to the average citizen? Can the US recover its tarnished image and go on about business as usual? Is the recent dysfunction in Washington DC now behind us, or is it destined to become part of a bleaker landscape?

2013-10-16 00:00:00 Economic Assessment Without Government Reports by Team of Northern Trust

The very near-term economic outlook is unclear and will remain so until the political impasse in Washington over the government shutdown and debt ceiling is settled. If differences are resolved in a day or two, the damage could be about 0.2 percentage points to fourth quarter real gross domestic product (GDP). A failure to raise the debt ceiling would more of a calamity, which we hope not to encounter.

2013-10-07 00:00:00 Angela Merkel's Pyrrhic Victory by George Soros of Project Syndicate

As far as Germany is concerned, the euro crisis is over a sentiment reflected in Chancellor Angela Merkels overwhelming election victory in September. In fact, the crisis has become a nightmare, inflicting tremendous suffering that could be easily avoided if the taboos that sustain it mainly Merkels were dispelled.

2013-10-04 00:00:00 The Fed and Its Big Thumb by Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp & Co.

Weve seen what happens when prices get ahead of the economy reality. The bubbles in the dot-coms in 2000 and the housing market in 2007 were such effects. We fear that the apparent Fed desire to continue to manipulate interest rates may engender more bubbles.

2013-09-30 00:00:00 The Eurozone's Calm Before the Storm by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate

A little more than a year ago, in the summer of 2012, the eurozone, faced with growing fears of a Greek exit and unsustainably high borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, appeared to be on the brink of collapse. Today, that risk has diminished significantly but the factors that fueled it remain largely unaddressed.

2013-09-28 00:00:00 The Renminbi: Soon to Be a Reserve Currency? by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Contrary to the thinking of fretful dollar skeptics, my firm belief is that the US dollar is going to become even stronger and will at some point actually deserve to be the reserve currency of choice rather than merely the prettiest girl in the ugly contest the last currency standing, so to speak. But whether the Chinese RMB will become a reserve currency is an entirely different question.

2013-09-25 00:00:00 Surprise! No Tapering and More Budget Progress than Meets the Eye by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments

On Monday, Larry Summers exited the pool of candidates for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman. (Only the timing was really a surprise.) On Wednesday, the Fed didnt taper and de-emphasized several of the targets theyd set earlier. (Big surprise versus consensus - not central bank best practices). Municipal bond offerings by Puerto Rico, California, and Illinois were met with strong investor demand.

2013-09-21 00:00:00 Rich City, Poor City by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

This week we will conclude our look at pension plans for the nonce with a 30,000-foot overview of the states and then take a deeper dive into one city: mine. This will give you at least one version of how to do your own homework about your own hometown. But fair warning, depending on your locale, you may need medical help or significant quantities of an adult beverage after you finish your research.

2013-09-20 00:00:00 Will Europe's Improving Economy Push Interest Rates Higher by Giordano Lombardo of Pioneer Investments

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased in the second quarter after six straight declines. Data expectations were on the optimistic side, but investors appeared to become more confident before the release, thanks to encouraging evidence from supposedly reliable forward-looking indicators.

2013-09-13 00:00:00 Waiting for Clarity From the Fed and Congress by Team of Northern Trust

U.S. economic growth averaged roughly 2.0% in the first half of the year and the average gain of real gross domestic product (GDP) during the entire 16-quarter economic recovery is 2.2%. Real GDP is projected to grow close to this trend in the second half of the year.

2013-08-28 00:00:00 On Tapering, All Signs Point to “Maybe” by Scott Brown of Raymond James

Investors looking to the July 30-31 Fed policy meeting minutes for clear clues on future moves were left disappointed. Nearly all senior Fed officials expect that a reduction in the pace of asset sales is likely to be warranted by the end of the year. However, they appear evenly divided on whether that will be sooner (September) or later (December). The economic data remained mixed, suggesting that the decision will be a close call.

2013-08-25 00:00:00 France: On the Edge of the Periphery by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Charles de Gaulle said that "France cannot be France without greatness." The current path that France is on will not take it to renewed greatness but rather to insolvency and turmoil. Is France destined to be grouped with its Mediterranean peripheral cousins, or to be seen as part of the solid North Atlantic core? The world is far better off with a great France, but France can achieve greatness only by its own actions.

2013-08-17 00:00:00 Signs of the Top by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

The investment media seems obsessed with the question of whether the Fed will taper. The real question should be not about "tapering" but about credibility. What happens when fundamentals become the narrative as opposed to what the central bank is doing? What happens if the Federal Reserve throws a liquidity party and nobody comes? Today we look at some of the fundamentals. The market is in fact overvalued, but that doesn’t mean it can’t become more overvalued. Is this August 1987 or August 1999?

2013-08-13 00:00:00 Europe's Queasy Status Quo by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

The eurozones weaker members continue to falter, but the currency union will likely hang together. Make no mistake, though: Europe remains at the edge of crisis.

2013-08-10 00:00:00 We Can't Take the Chance by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

What would it have been like to be a central banker in the midst of the crisis in 2008-09? You’d know that you won’t have the luxury of going back and making better decisions five years later. Instead, you have to act on the torrent of information that’s coming at you, and none of it is good. Major banks are literally collapsing, the interbank market is nonexistent and there is panic in the air. Perhaps you feel that panic in the pit of your stomach. This week we’ll perform a little thought experiment to see if we can extrapolate what is likely to happen in when the nex

2013-08-08 00:00:00 Coming Soon: September Volatility by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Since spiking earlier this summer, market volatility is now back to spring lows. Investors, however, shouldnt expect this calm to continue come September. Russ has four reasons why.

2013-08-06 00:00:00 The Changing of the Monetary Guard by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate

With leadership transitions at many central banks under way, many of those who were partly responsible for creating the global crisis that erupted in 2008 are departing to mixed reviews. The main question now is the extent to which those reviews influence their successors behavior.

2013-08-06 00:00:00 Equities Grind Higher as the Economy Continues to Muddle Through by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities advanced last week, with the S&P 500 increasing 1.10%.1 For the month of July, the S&P gained 5.09%, and equities have increased 21.33% year to date. Second quarter earnings season is nearly complete, and there has not been a material change in estimated earnings for the balance of the year or 2014. Revenues were slightly ahead of expectations, and earnings per share were approximately 3% higher than expected, annualizing at about $110 per S&P 500 share.

2013-07-26 00:00:00 Wedding Bells in Romania by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

I was invited to attend the wedding of one of our Romanian staff in June, and I jumped at the opportunity to celebrate with the happy couple, visit a different part of Romania, and talk to locals about life there. The celebration represented a microcosm of the juxtaposition of old and new in Romania, and this is similar for investors there as progress continues toward market reform.

2013-07-25 00:00:00 ECB's Attitude to Portugal Raises Questions about Bond-Purchase Programme by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein

Political upheaval in Portugal has thrown the spotlight on the European Central Banks (ECBs) bond-purchase programme, known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs). Many are asking whether the ECB is ready to support the market if yields rise further. And if not, why not?

2013-07-24 00:00:00 Earnings Acceleration Likely Needed for Next Upturn in Stocks by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. equities finished mostly higher last week. For a fourth straight week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials were up (returning 0.73% and 0.57% respectively for the week), while the NASDAQ underperformed at -0.34%. It was a busy start for second quarter earnings. More than 70% of the 100 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings have beaten consensus earnings per share expectations by approximately 3% in aggregate.

2013-07-19 00:00:00 Opportunity in Europe by Team of Neuberger Berman

A striking feature of this years global stock market rally is that international markets have significantly trailed U.S. stocks. Nevertheless, Neuberger Bermans Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) recently made the contrarian call of upgrading its view for international developed markets, particularly Europe. In this Strategic Spotlight, we provide an update on the European economy and lay out some reasons for optimism despite the dour growth outlook.

2013-07-18 00:00:00 What's Next for the U.S. Dollar? by Nic Pifer of Columbia Management

Global government bonds have performed poorly so far this year. Year to date through July 13, the Barclays Global Treasury Index, which covers 30 investment grade domestic government bond markets, is down 5.5% in unhedged U.S. dollar terms. The same index hedged back to U.S. dollars is down 0.6% year to date. This difference in returns highlights a key point.

2013-07-17 00:00:00 The Bernanke Guessing Game by David Wismer of Flexible Plan Investments

There can be little doubt that US equity markets have become more dependent than ever, at least in the short-term, on the every utterance of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow FOMC members.

2013-07-13 00:00:00 The Bang! Moment Shock by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

This week we resume our musings about Cyprus, to see what that tiny island can teach us about our own personal need to engage in ongoing critical analysis of our lives and investment portfolios. Cyprus is not Greece or France or Spain or Japan or the US or (pick a country). I get that. No two situations are the same, but there may be a rhyme or two here that is instructive.

2013-07-10 00:00:00 3 Risks that Could Derail the Market Rally by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Stocks can withstand moderate rate increases, as we saw last Friday when they rallied despite a sell-off in bonds. But Russ K warns that they may not withstand these three other scenarios.

2013-07-09 00:00:00 The Germans Deserve Credit for Extending Credit by Sam Wardwell of Pioneer Investments

Germanys government agreed to (indirectly, via guarantees) provide Spains government-run ICO development banks with the funding to make up to 800 million of low-interest loans to small and medium-sized businesses.

2013-07-03 00:00:00 AdvisorShares Weekly Market Review by AdvisorShares Research of AdvisorShares

Markets went higher last week after central bankers around the world reassured investors that they would not kill the economic recovery with higher interest rates. More volatile small and mid-cap stock indices performed even better than the S&P 500.

2013-07-02 00:00:00 Investors Gear Up for Earnings Post-Taper by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent

Following a few weeks of FOMC-induced turmoil, investors are looking forward to getting back to the fundamentals.Second quarter earnings season are set to kick off July 8 with Alcoa, in what will mark an important reporting period for financial markets.Given the now much telegraphed intentions of the Fed, investors are scrutinizing whether the US economy and corporate sector is ready to stand on its own feet.

2013-07-01 00:00:00 "This Country is Different" by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Cyprus is a very small country, some 800,000 people. Among the leadership, everyone knows everyone. There is much to admire, as we will see. But Cyprus has had a gut-wrenching crisis, proportionately more dire than any in other European countries recently; and precedents are being established here for how future problems will be dealt with in the Eurozone and elsewhere.

2013-06-27 00:00:00 Turmoil Shouldn't Derail Turkey by Carlos von Hardenberg of Franklin Templeton Investments

In 2012, Turkeys stock market rose more than 50%, posting one of the strongest performances of any global equity market last year. However, recent news of protests sweeping the nation has started scaring off some investors, at least in the short term. We consider turmoil to often be a natural part of change and development, and these short-term political disturbances likely wont be the last. Ive invited my colleague Carlos von Hardenberg, Managing Director, Turkey, based in Istanbul, to share some local insight.

2013-06-25 00:00:00 Rates, Dividends and The Laws of Gravity by Don Taylor of Franklin Templeton Investments

The laws of gravity may dictate that what goes up must come down, but interest rates seem to have their own converse course of action what goes down eventually will go up. Although it seems like interest rates can stay stuck in low gear for years, (decades even, in the case of Japan) eventually they will creep higher, and talk is heating up about the timing and magnitude of such creep in the US. As the portfolio manager of Franklin Rising Dividends Fund, Don Taylor was quick to comment that higher interest rates dont mean all dividend-paying stocks are doomed.

2013-06-21 00:00:00 Outlook for the Global Bond Market by Nic Pifer of Columbia Management

The global economy continues to expand, but seems stuck on a moderate, below-trend trajectory. Lately, the story seems to be more about a growth rotation across regions than a clear-cut acceleration or deceleration at the global level. Looking to 2014, however, we still expect the global economy to accelerate to a more trend-like pace.

2013-06-19 00:00:00 3 Reasons to Consider Spanish Stocks by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

While Europe is not out of the woods yet, Russ is less concerned about the Spanish market.

2013-06-15 00:00:00 Economists Are (Still) Clueless by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

The economic forecasts of mainstream economists are quite positive, if not enirely optimistic, reflecting the current data. Should we not take heart from that? Alas, no. This week we look at some of our recent musings on that topic, triggered by a letter from a very serious economist who took umbrage when I wrote disparagingly about economists and forecasting a couple months ago.

2013-06-11 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

The last few weeks have seen volatility emerge as concerns about the Feds policy of quantitative easing and the timing of changing it have taken center stage.

2013-06-07 00:00:00 Never on a Friday by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James

Over the past 10 years there have been many Hindenburg Omens triggered, but to my knowledge only one of them has actually worked (The Wall Street Journal 8/23/2010 article states the accuracy is only 25%, looking at the period from 1985). Actually, the last Hindenburg signal (December 2012) proved to be an exceptionally good point to buy stocks. I expect this Omen will prove to be yet another false signal because the McClellan Oscillator is just about as oversold as it ever gets.

2013-06-04 00:00:00 Stocks: How Long Will the Bull Run? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Conditions appear favorable for the next 12 to 24 months. What could change the markets prospects in the longer term? Heres a look.

2013-06-01 00:00:00 Central Bankers Gone Wild by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

For the last two weeks we have focused on the problems facing Japan, and such is the importance of Japan to the world economy that this week we will once again turn to the Land of the Rising Sun. I will try to summarize the situation facing the Japanese. This is critical to understand, because they are determined to share their problems with the world, and we will have no choice but to deal with them. Japan is going to affect your economy and your investments, no matter where you live; Japan is that important.

2013-05-28 00:00:00 Taking Stock by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

U.S. and global equities were under pressure last week, with all major U.S. indices lower for only the fourth time this year. With discussion of the Fed tapering its stimulus, market uncertainty gained momentum. The S&P 500 was down 1.0% for the week.1 We consider the market pullback technical in nature since the mention of a Fed quantitative easing exit likely created a natural point to take profits after the recent rally.

2013-05-25 00:00:00 The Mother of All Painted-In Corners by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Japan has painted itself into the mother all corners. There will be no clean or easy exit. There is going to be massive economic pain as they the Japanese try and find a way out of their problems, and sadly, the pain will not be confined to Japan. This will be the true test of the theories of neo-Keynesianism writ large. Japan is going to print and monetize and spend more than almost any observer can currently imagine. You like what Paul Krugman prescribes? You think he makes sense? You (we all!) are going to be participants in a real-world experiment on how that works out.

2013-05-23 00:00:00 Europe's Lost Keynesians by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate

There is no magic Keynesian bullet for the eurozones woes, despite what many commentators and much of the public seem to believe. The eurozones difficulties stem from European financial and monetary integration having gotten too far ahead of actual political, fiscal, and banking union not exactly a problem that Keynes tried to address.

2013-05-14 00:00:00 The Resistible Fall of Europe: An Interview with George Soros by George Soros of Project Syndicate

The politics of the eurozone countries is European politics, and European politics is not serving these countries well. In an extended interview, George Soros explains why and what should be done about it.

2013-05-09 00:00:00 The Effect of Negative Interest Rates in Europe by Zach Pandl of Columbia Management

In his press conference last week, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi signaled that policymakers may be more open to a cut in the central banks deposit rate. Although Mr. Draghi acknowledged this move could have negative side effects, he added we will be able to deal with the negative consequences we will look at this with an open mind. Several major central banks considered negative deposit facility rates during and after the financial crisis, but so far, all have determined that the idea did not pass the cost/benefit test.

2013-05-07 00:00:00 Soros versus Sinn: The German Question by George Soros, et al. of Project Syndicate

The ongoing euro crisis has been a source of increasingly heated debate worldwide. Now, George Soros and Hans-Werner Sinn, two regular Project Syndicate contributors and leading figures in the discussion, debate the cause of Europes crisis and how to overcome it.

2013-05-01 00:00:00 Likely Rate Cut from the European Central Bank Will Be No Magic Wand by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein

Disappointing April data suggest that the ECB is set to cut the refinancing rate at Thursdays Council meeting. This is likely to have limited economic impact but could encourage expectations of more creative policy action later, helping to take some upward pressure off the euro.

2013-04-26 00:00:00 Why Demographics Will Keep the U.S. Ahead by Randall McLaughlin of Baird Investment Management

The aging of the developed world does give us some powerful information about which industries might do well in the future. The increased use of healthcare services as a population ages is well-documented. In addition, as people age, they transition from accumulating possessions to using their wealth to buy experiences. Travel companies are examples of companies that could benefit. The favorable demographic profile of the United States supports our manufacturing renaissance thesis as companies tend to want to locate manufacturing close to the end client.

2013-04-25 00:00:00 Murkier Prospects for Merkel by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

An anxious German electorate may make it harder for the chancellor to continue her pro-cooperation approach to Europes fiscal crisis.

2013-04-25 00:00:00 The End of “Expansionary Austerity?” by Scott Brown of Raymond James

A few years ago, an economic paper by Harvard professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff helped fuel the push for austerity. It was met with some criticism from economists, but was widely embraced by the press and by politicians on both sides of the Atlantic. The study has now been demonstrated to have had serious flaws, but will those in power fold? Or will they double down on bad economic policy?

2013-04-24 00:00:00 Market Observations, Deflation Fears by John Rothe of Riverbend Investment Management

Last week, the S&P 500 took a quick dive down toward the 50-day moving average as investors became worried about continued poor economic data. While some investors are quick to point to the Boston Marathon attack as the reason for the decline, there was in fact a large decline in the market before the tragedy in Boston occurred.

2013-04-20 00:00:00 Austerity is a Consequence, not a Punishment by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Austerity is a consequence, not a punishment. A country loses access to cheap borrowed money as a consequence of running up too much debt and losing the confidence of lenders that the debt can be repaid. Lenders don’t sit around in clubs and discuss how to “punish” a country by requiring austerity; they simply decide not to lend. Austerity is a result of a country’s trying to entice lenders into believing that the country will change and make an effort to restore confidence.

2013-04-19 00:00:00 Global Economic Overview - March 2013 by Team of Thomas White International

Global economic trends turned softer during the month of March as indicators from Europe showed further declines and U.S. consumer sentiment moderated on labor market uncertainties, government spending cuts, and tax increases. Continuing weakness in European demand has somewhat dulled the export outlook for emerging economies, while government policies to prevent excessive asset price inflation have led to concerns about domestic consumption growth in these countries.

2013-04-18 00:00:00 After Boston: Why the US Market is Vulnerable by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

The events in Boston were a tragic reminder that markets still face risks from terrorism and geopolitics. In fact, the US market is especially vulnerable to such exogenous shocks right now given that there isnt much bad news discounted into prices.

2013-04-17 00:00:00 U.S. GDP: After Some First-Quarter Flurry, a Slowdown? by Ken Taubes of Pioneer Investments

We had a little flush of activity in the first quarter, which we believe will lead to much better GDP potentially well over 3% than people anticipated in the beginning of the year. We look at this activity as a little bit of a catch-up, for a couple of reasons.

2013-04-16 00:00:00 All That Glitters by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments

Gold prices officially fell into bear market territory on Friday. With a 4% decline that day, the current drop in the price of gold from its August 22, 2011 top crossed the negative 20% mark. Today as I write this, the precious metal is down another 10% plus.

2013-04-10 00:00:00 Economic Slowdown Halts Equity Rally by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management

The latest softness in economic indicators probably means that more consolidation in the equity markets is required before we can advance beyond the recent all-time highs. During March, nearly all of the activity for the S&P 500 was within 1% of 1550. Equities may move lower due to deteriorating technical conditions and the possibility of weak first quarter earnings reports.

2013-04-10 00:00:00 Surprising Surge!! by Jim Tillar, Steve Wenstrup of Tillar-Wenstrup

Momentum from 2012s surprisingly strong performance continued into the first quarter of 2013 with stocks rising sharply. Our portfolios did well but lagged behind our benchmarks in the quarter. Taking a little longer view, over the trailing 12 and 36 months we mostly matched the double-digit gains of our benchmarks, which we are very pleased with since we usually underperform during strong market advances. So far this year small- & mid-capitalization, value, and domestic stocks were the market leaders, while international, growth, commodity stocks and Apple were laggards.

2013-04-10 00:00:00 Germany's Choice by George Soros of Project Syndicate

Contrary to popular opinion in Germany and elsewhere, the euro crisis for which Germany is disproportionately responsible, owing to its dominant position is far from over. Despite the complex political and economic origins of Europes current malaise, the solution can be summed up in one word: Eurobonds.

2013-04-08 00:00:00 Cypriot Chaos Assists EU Centralization by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

Remarks by members of the European Unions elite suggesting that banking deposit seizures may become standard practice appear to have heightened the risk of a European bank run and perhaps even a catastrophic collapse of the euro. Any threat to the euro is a threat to the European publics conception of the Unions manifest destiny. As such, I believe members of the EU elite may be purposefully leveraging the crisis to push for a centralized European banking system to cement the political framework of an EU superstate.

2013-04-05 00:00:00 What's Next for U.S. and European Markets? by Mike Temple of Pioneer Investments

I was asked recently to provide some color around the state of global fixed income markets as we close out the first quarter of 2013. Of course, one of the more watched situations in the global markets has been Cypruss banking crisis. I wont go into too much depth on the subject here, as my colleague, Cosimo Marasciulo, has recently provided a comprehensive analysis.

2013-04-05 00:00:00 The Promise of Abenomics by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is doing what many economists have been calling for in the US and Europe: a comprehensive program entailing monetary, fiscal, and structural policies. As many Japanese rightly sense, Abenomics, with its focus on monetary, fiscal, and structural policies, can only help the countrys recovery.

2013-04-01 00:00:00 The Global Economy on the Fly by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate

In a fragile global environment, has America become a beacon of hope? While the US is experiencing several positive economic trends, Europe continues to stagnate, and China will be vulnerable to a hard landing in 2014 unless its new leaders accelerate the pace of reform.

2013-03-25 00:00:00 Fed Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic or Just Hopeful? by Scott Brown of Raymond James

The Federal Open Market Committees latest policy meeting generated few surprises. The FOMC maintained its forward guidance on the federal funds rate target, which is still not expected to start rising until 2015, and did not alter its asset purchases plans ($40 billion per month in agency mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion in longer-term Treasuries). However, in his press briefing, Bernanke indicated that the pace of asset purchases could be varied as progress is made toward the Feds goals or if the assessment of the benefits and potential costs of the program were to cha

2013-03-22 00:00:00 ING Fixed Income Perspectives March 2013 by Christine Hurtsellers, Matt Toms, Mike Mata of ING Investment Management

Developed sovereigns are still broadly unattractive, but global central banks appear poised to ease. We prefer EM currencies that will continue to benefit from positive global growth and tolerate further upward pressure on the U.S.

2013-03-22 00:00:00 Is Plan B for Cyprus an Exit from the Euro? by Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Having rejected an initial bailout package that would have imposed a levy on bank deposits, Cyprus now faces some difficult choices in exchange for continued emergency bank funding.

2013-03-22 00:00:00 US Stocks: Third Times the Charm by Seth Masters of AllianceBernstein

At 1550, the S&P 500 has regained the peak it reached in March of 2000 (when the tech bubble burst) and again in October of 2007 (before the credit crunch hit). But we think the third times the charm: We think the stock market still has room to rise because equities are now more attractively valued and of higher quality than they were at previous peaks.

2013-03-22 00:00:00 Deep Value Diving in the Eurozone by Katrina Dudley of Franklin Templeton Investments

Greeces tale of financial woe may well go down as a modern Greek tragedy, with people in power falling prey to a tragic flaw which brings about their catastrophic reversal of fortune. Its all quite dramatic and dire, but if the real life Greek financial system stays true to the classical formula, the conclusion means recognition of that tragic flaw and potential course correction. For those hardy and/or contrarian souls who suspect opportunity may be sprouting from Greeces great mess, this would be good news.

2013-03-19 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

Stocks had a very quiet week with volumes reaching levels that one associates with holiday trading.

2013-03-18 00:00:00 And That’s the Week That Was by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates

Move over Dow Jones, here comes the S&P. What few thought possible a year ago is coming to fruition as the major indexes continue to push toward record territory. The S&P 500 is close (but no cigar) to besting its personal high set in late 2007, before this whole banking mess emerged and sent equities into a tailspin. Confident investors seemed to be overlooking the numerous concerns (budget/sequester, payroll taxes, Europe, China) so they can participate in the record run.

2013-03-12 00:00:00 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

Stocks rose each day last week as the notion of a ho-hum global economy was reassuring to those who fear either a recession or a surge in economic activity.

2013-03-11 00:00:00 Italy: Welcome to the Bungle by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Results of the recent election increase the likelihood of a eurozone breakupand disruptions to financial markets.

2013-03-07 00:00:00 New Highs by Team of Janus Capital Group

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new record high the first week of March, breaking its previous closing high reached in October of 2007. The new record is symbolic more than anything else, but it still has some positive implications for equity markets.

2013-03-07 00:00:00 After the Dow Record Close: What Comes Next? by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

After Tuesday's record setting Dow Industrials close, are US stocks still cheap? Can the market move higher? Russ answers these questions and more.

2013-03-04 00:00:00 What is Italy Saying? by Joseph Stiglitz of Project Syndicate

The outcome of the Italian elections should send a clear message to Europe's leaders: the austerity policies that they have pursued are being rejected by voters. Indeed, it will take a decade or more to recover the losses that austerity has wrought.

2013-03-01 00:00:00 Seeking a Fixed Income Fix by Team of Franklin Templeton Investments

While governments worldwide continue to struggle with debt and budget issues, for the most part, corporations have turned lemons into lemonade and have become lean and mean. While not without risk, corporate credit actually looks to be in fairly good shape, according to Eric Takaha who, as senior vice president and portfolio manager of Franklin Strategic Income Fund spends a good deal of time analyzing the space.

2013-02-27 00:00:00 Singapore A Wise Owl Among Currency Snakes by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

As China enters the "Year of the Snake," Singapore stands as a beacon of sound currency in a world gone mad. China's renminbi remains pegged to the US dollar, while even steadfast Switzerland has followed the US, UK, EU, and Japan into an impoverishing strategy of currency debasement. Singapore, alone, has been able to sustain genuine economic growth in the context of a strong national currency.

2013-02-25 00:00:00 We Expect High-Yield Defaults to Remain Low by Jeff Skoglund of AllianceBernstein

High-yield bond defaults are historically low today, even for troubled companies. Despite the worries we hear in some corners about looming high-yield defaults, we think default rates will stay low for at least the next few years. In the wake of the 2008 financial meltdown, US companies did the responsible thing and got leaner, reducing head count and overhead costs aggressively. When the recovery gained traction, they held the line on expensesand profit margins are at historic highs today.

2013-02-21 00:00:00 Cracks Appear in the French Economic Model by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein

Today's PMI data point to a deepening recession in France at a time when Germany is showing tentative signs of life. Is the euro crisis exposing the weaknesses of the French economic model?

2013-02-20 00:00:00 Two New Country Views for a Two-Speed Global Economy by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

The global economy is stuck in a two-speed regime: Developed markets like Europe, Japan and the United States are stalling, while China is re-accelerating. Russ explains what this divergent growth landscape means for his country outlooks.

2013-02-19 00:00:00 All is Not Well Down Under by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Though Russ continues to like Australian equities for the longer term, he explains why he may downgrade his near-term view of the Australian market soon.

2013-02-19 00:00:00 On Competitive Devaluations by Scott Brown of Raymond James

Aggressive monetary policy moves in recent years have been accompanied by a growing fear of a currency war. In a currency war, or competitive devaluation, countries attempt to weaken their currencies to boost exports, but each devaluation leads to counter devaluations. That's not what's going on now. However, whether a country is purposely devaluing its currency or is merely pursuing accommodative monetary policy is irrelevant, the consequences are the same. The recent meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers highlights the lack of coherent policies to boost growth.

2013-02-11 00:00:00 Stocks: Why "Risk On" Rules by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Investors appear to believe the equity market will muddle through its many challenges.

2013-02-08 00:00:00 World War C: Neosho Capital On The Currency War by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital

This summer, Brad Pitt will star in a new film called "World War Z", an action-horror film about a post-zombie apocalypse Earth, hence the "Z" in the title. Zombie films are not our cup of tea at Neosho (we thought the genre was dead), so it is debatable whether we will see this film, but one thing is clear to us, we are perched on the precipice of "World War C", where "C" stands for "currency".

2013-02-06 00:00:00 The Job Market Data and the Fed by Scott Brown of Raymond James

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 2.8 million in January before seasonal adjustment, that is. Adjusted, payrolls advanced 157,000, about as expected. However, annual benchmark revisions showed a more rapid pace of job growth over the last two years a pace at odds with the Household Survey data. How might the Fed view the range of job market data?

2013-02-05 00:00:00 2012 Equity Market Market Year in Review by Natalie Trunow of Calvert Investment Management

Equities started the year strong as global inflation remained tame, and aggressive, accommodative monetary policy by central banks around the globe helped equity markets rally hard off their lows posted in the fall of 2011. Continuously improving U.S. economic data, strong corporate earnings, and policy steps toward mitigation of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe also provided support for the equity markets worldwide.

2013-01-31 00:00:00 Signs of a Solid 2013 for Stocks by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Yield spreads versus bonds indicate that stock valuations have considerable upside.

2013-01-30 00:00:00 EU Financial Tax Portends Loss of Market Leadership by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

Although it was barely noticed by the American press, on January 22nd, EU finance ministers approved a new "Financial Transactions Tax" (FTT) that has implications for market competitiveness around the world.

2013-01-29 00:00:00 China's Last Soft Landing? by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate

On the surface, the Chinese economy's resilience has been impressive the first to recover, as Chinese leaders always want to remind the rest of the world. But, beneath the surface, the economy risks losing its capacity for resilience unless the authorities accelerate the transition to a more consumer-led economy.

2013-01-28 00:00:00 UK Threat to Exit EU: Much Ado About Nothing by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein

In a speech last week, British Prime Minister David Cameron raised the possibility that the UK might push the nuclear button and leave the European Union. We think both the threat and consequences of such a move have been exaggerated. The most striking aspect of Mr Camerons much-postponed speech on Europe last week was his promise to hold a referendum on the UKs membership of the European Union (EU) by the end of 2017. Such a vote, he said, would follow a new settlement to hand powers back to national governments.

2013-01-28 00:00:00 Economic Insights: Signs of a Solid 2013 for Stocks by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Yield spreads versus bonds indicate that stock valuations have considerable upside. Earlier in this recovery, when earnings were growing very strongly, consensus concerns about equities cited the danger of an earnings slowdown. Those expressing this concern pointed out, that such a slowdown would occur inevitably as the recovery matured, especially with economic growth proceeding at such a subpar rate. What seems to have escaped notice is that the slowdown already occurred in 2012 and that the stock market offered good returns despite it.

2013-01-24 00:00:00 Beggar Thy Currency Or Thy Self? by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate

One need not be an economist to figure out that, while all currencies can depreciate against something else (like gold, land, and other real assets), by definition they cannot all depreciate against each other. Yet, when push comes to shove, country after country is being dragged into a negative dynamic of competitive depreciation.

2013-01-23 00:00:00 The Washington Hurdles by Scott Brown of Raymond James

While President Obama is now beginning his second term, the new Congress isn't expected to "get down to business" until next month. There are three hurdles for Washington, which are likely to have significant implications for the financial markets.

2013-01-22 00:00:00 The Economic Fundamentals of 2013 by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate

The global economy this year will exhibit some similarities with conditions prevailing in 2012 no surprise there. But there will be some important differences, as fiscal austerity spreads to more advanced economies, the risk of a hard landing in China rises, and the threat of war in the Middle East grows.

2013-01-22 00:00:00 Equities Set to Break Out of the Bear Trap by Catherine Wood of AllianceBernstein

In the face of significant uncertainties, US and global equities rallied in 2012 and at the start of the New Year. We think there might be more to come as stocks break out of the bear trap.

2013-01-18 00:00:00 Is the Euro "Dangerously High"? by Darren Williams of AllianceBernstein

Jean-Claude Juncker's view that the euro is "dangerously high" isn't shared by the European Central Bank (ECB). As long as this is the case, the single currency may continue to defy fundamentals and act as an unwelcome headwind for an economy still struggling to break out of recession.

2013-01-14 00:00:00 Bond Market Review & Outlook by Thomas Fahey of Loomis Sayles

The ?nal quarter of 2012 was the icing on the cake of an exceptional year for the credit sectors. Fourth quarter credit gains stemmed in part from uncommonly aggressive monetary policy responses in the third quarter. As economic growth continued to undershoot expectations, major central banks made clear that they were dissatis?ed with the status quo of tepid economic growth and high unemployment. The Federal Reserve went so far as to tie its monetary policy to the level of the unemployment rate.

2013-01-11 00:00:00 2 Reasons to Stick With Emerging Markets by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

Think emerging markets equities have run their course? Not so fast despite recent strong performance, Russ explains why there's room for further EM gains in 2013.

2013-01-10 00:00:00 Chuck Royce on Q4 2012: Quality Rising by Chuck Royce of The Royce Funds

Do you think the market's strength in the year's second half marks the beginning of a more historically normal period for equities? I do. Of course, we've been calling for a more typical market environment for a while now, so our recent forecasting has been less than stellar. However, the market's second-half results were telling. In the third quarter we saw many quality stocks keep pace with the small-cap market as a whole. Many of these businesses then went on to outpace the Russell 2000 in the fourth quarter, particularly in October, when the rally began to cool.

2013-01-07 00:00:00 Germany and Eastern Europe: Lessons in Free Trade by Team of Thomas White International

Economies in east and central Europe are attracting huge foreign investments into the automobile sector.

2012-07-02 00:00:00 Global market activity by Alex Crooke (Article)

Henderson?s Alex Crooke provides an update on markets including the proactivity to refinance banks in Europe.

2011-10-13 00:00:00 Why Is Financial Market Volatility Increasing? by Alan A. Fustey of Index Wealth Management

While price movements in financial markets are largely unpredictable, there are periods where volatility tends to cluster. The flash crash shows that high frequency trading does have the potential to heighten volatility given the right circumstances, however knowing when these circumstances are present can only be detected in hindsight. There are structural changes that are occurring in the global economy, technology and securities trading that have the potential to make the recent increase in market volatility a new permanent standard.

2010-03-05 00:00:00 Economic Update by Justin S. Anderson of Cambridge Advisors

In the coming months it will be important to track the changing dynamics in both the domestic labor market and international sovereign debt markets as these represent, quite possibly, the two most significant headwinds to growth in the US economy and stock markets in general.

2010-02-19 00:00:00 Euro-Area Imbalances: Is Germany Part of the Problem? by Darren Williams of Alliance Bernstein

The stagnation of consumer spending and the weakness of wage growth in Germany over the past decade deprived Greece and other peripheral European countries of their most important trading partner. Expansionary German policies could help correct imbalances in the euro area, and remove the need for bailouts.

2010-02-18 00:00:00 Paper Hangers by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

The 80-year decline in central banking discipline is the biggest problem facing developed economies. Finance ministers from Washington to London, Tokyo, Madrid and Athens are attempting to fill fiscal gaps by issuing greater quantities of currency and debt. Governments need to curtail spending in order to meet financial obligations.

2010-01-22 00:00:00 Reflections Across the Pond by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

Having been among the economic engines of Europe for much of the past decade, it appears as if the British economy has run out of steam. Inflation is rising while bankruptcies and unemployment continu

2010-01-12 00:00:00 Things Fall Apart in Eurozone by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital


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